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Optimizing the hypre solver for manycore and GPU architectures

The solution of large-scale combustion problems with codes such as Uintah on modern computer architectures requires the use of multithreading and GPUs to achieve performance. Uintah uses a low-Mach number approximation that requires iteratively solving a large system of linear equations. The Hypre iterative solver has solved such systems in a scalable way for Uintah, but the use of OpenMP with Hypre leads to at least slowdown due to OpenMP overheads. The proposed solution uses the MPI Endpoints within Hypre, where each team of threads acts as a different MPI rank. This approach minimizes OpenMP synchronization overhead and performs as fast or (up to 1.44) faster than Hypre's MPI-only version, and allows the rest of Uintah to be optimized using OpenMP. The profiling of the GPU version of Hypre shows the bottleneck to be the launch overhead of thousands of micro-kernels. The GPU performance was improved by fusing these micro-kernels and was further optimized by using Cuda-aware MPI, resulting in an overall speedup of 1.16—1.44 compared to the baseline GPU implementation. The above optimization strategies were published in the International Conference on Computational Science 2020 [1]. This work extends the previously published research by carrying out the second phase of communication-centered optimizations in Hypre to improve its scalability on large-scale supercomputers. Additionally, this includes an efficient non-blocking inter-thread communication scheme, communication-reducing patch assignment, and expression of logical communication parallelism to a new version of the MPICH library that utilizes the underlying network parallelism [2]. The above optimizations avoid communication bottlenecks previously observed during strong scaling and improve performance by up to 2 on 256 nodes of Intel Knight's Landing processor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optical properties of intact leaves for estimating chlorophyll concentration

Changes in leaf chlorophyll content can serve as relative indicators of plant vigor and environmental quality. This study identified reflectance, transmittance, and absorptance wavebands and band ratios within the 400- to 850-nm range for intact leaves that could be used to estimate extracted leaf chlorophyll per unit leaf area (areal concentration) with minimal error. Leaf optical properties along with chlorophyll a, b, and a + b concentrations were measured for the planar-leaved sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), wild grape (Vitis rotundifolia Michx.), and switchcane [Arundinaria gigantea (Walter) Muhl.], and for needles of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Miller). Generally, reflectance, transmittance, and absorptance corresponded most precisely with chlorophyll concentrations at wavelengths near 700 nm, although regressions were also strong in the 550- to 625-nm range. A power function was superior to a simple linear function in yielding low standard deviations of the estimate (s). When data were combined among the planar-leaved species, s values were low at approximately 50 mumol/m2 out of a 940 mumol/m2 range in chlorophyll a + b at best-fit wavelengths of 707 to 709 nm. Minimal s values for chlorophyll a + b ranged from 32 to 62 mumol/m2 across species when band ratios having numerator wavelengths of 693 to 720 nm were used with the application of a power function. Optimal denominator wavelengths for the band ratios were 850 nm for reflectance and transmittance and 400 nm for absorptance. This information can be applied in designing field portable chlorophyll meters and in the landscape-scale remote sensing of plant responses to the environment.

Chlorophyll/analysis↗

On the Response of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager to the Marine Environment: Implications for Atmospheric Parameter Retrievals

A reasonably rigorous basis for understanding and extracting the physical information content of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) satellite images of the marine environment is provided. To this end, a comprehensive algebraic parameterization is developed for the response of the SSM/I to a set of nine atmospheric and ocean surface parameters. The brightness temperature model includes a closed-form approximation to microwave radiative transfer in a non-scattering atmosphere and fitted models for surface emission and scattering based on geometric optics calculations for the roughened sea surface. The combined model is empirically tuned using suitable sets of SSM/I data and coincident surface observations. The brightness temperature model is then used to examine the sensitivity of the SSM/I to realistic variations in the scene being observed and to evaluate the theoretical maximum precision of global SSM/I retrievals of integrated water vapor, integrated cloud liquid water, and surface wind speed. A general minimum-variance method for optimally retrieving geophysical parameters from multichannel brightness temperature measurements is outlined, and several global statistical constraints of the type required by this method are computed. Finally, a unified set of efficient statistical and semi-physical algorithms is presented for obtaining fields of surface wind speed, integrated water vapor, cloud liquid water, and precipitation from SSM/I brightness temperature data. Features include: a semi-physical method for retrieving integrated cloud liquid water at 15 km resolution and with rms errors as small as approximately 0.02 kg/sq m; a 3-channel statistical algorithm for integrated water vapor which was constructed so as to have improved linear response to water vapor and reduced sensitivity to precipitation; and two complementary indices of precipitation activity (based on 37 GHz attenuation and 85 GHz scattering, respectively), each of which are relatively insensitive to variations in other environmental parameters.

Petty, Grant W.↗

Learning to Control Advanced Life Support Systems

Advanced life support systems have many interacting processes and limited resources. Controlling and optimizing advanced life support systems presents unique challenges. In particular, advanced life support systems are nonlinear coupled dynamical systems and it is difficult for humans to take all interactions into account to design an effective control strategy. In this project. we developed several reinforcement learning controllers that actively explore the space of possible control strategies, guided by rewards from a user specified long term objective function. We evaluated these controllers using a discrete event simulation of an advanced life support system. This simulation, called BioSim, designed by Nasa scientists David Kortenkamp and Scott Bell has multiple, interacting life support modules including crew, food production, air revitalization, water recovery, solid waste incineration and power. They are implemented in a consumer/producer relationship in which certain modules produce resources that are consumed by other modules. Stores hold resources between modules. Control of this simulation is via adjusting flows of resources between modules and into/out of stores. We developed adaptive algorithms that control the flow of resources in BioSim. Our learning algorithms discovered several ingenious strategies for maximizing mission length by controlling the air and water recycling systems as well as crop planting schedules. By exploiting non-linearities in the overall system dynamics, the learned controllers easily out- performed controllers written by human experts. In sum, we accomplished three goals. We (1) developed foundations for learning models of coupled dynamical systems by active exploration of the state space, (2) developed and tested algorithms that learn to efficiently control air and water recycling processes as well as crop scheduling in Biosim, and (3) developed an understanding of the role machine learning in designing control systems for advanced life support.

Subramanian, Devika↗

Convergence analysis for a nonlocal gradient descent method via directional Gaussian smoothing

We analyze the convergence of a nonlocal gradient descent method for minimizing a class of high-dimensional non-convex functions, where a directional Gaussian smoothing (DGS) is proposed to define the nonlocal gradient (also referred to as the DGS gradient). The method was first proposed in [Zhang et al., Enabling long-range exploration in minimization of multimodal functions, UAI 2021], in which multiple numerical experiments showed that replacing the traditional local gradient with the DGS gradient can help the optimizers escape local minima more easily and significantly improve their performance. However, a rigorous theory for the efficiency of the method on nonconvex landscape is lacking. In this work, we investigate the scenario where the objective function is composed of a convex function, perturbed by deterministic oscillating noise. We provide a convergence theory under which the iterates exponentially converge to a tightened neighborhood of the solution, whose size is characterized by the noise wavelength. Here, we also establish a correlation between the optimal values of the Gaussian smoothing radius and the noise wavelength, thus justifying the advantage of using moderate or large smoothing radii with the method. Furthermore, if the noise level decays to zero when approaching the global minimum, we prove that DGS-based optimization converges to the exact global minimum with linear rates, similarly to standard gradient-based methods in optimizing convex functions. Several numerical experiments are provided to confirm our theory and illustrate the superiority of the approach over those based on the local gradient.

Tran, Hoang [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

Market optimization and technoeconomic analysis of hydrogen-electricity coproduction systems

Decarbonization efforts across North America, Europe, and beyond rely on variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, as well as alternative fuels, such as hydrogen, to support the sustainable energy transition. These advancements have prompted a need for more flexibility in the electric grid to complement non-dispatchable energy sources and increased demand from electrification. Integrated energy systems are well suited to provide this flexibility, but conventional technoeconomic modeling paradigms neglect the time-varying dynamic nature of the grid and thus undervalue resource flexibility. In this work, we develop a computational optimization framework for dynamic market-based technoeconomic comparison of integrated energy systems that coproduce low-carbon electricity and hydrogen (e.g., solid oxide fuel cells, solid oxide electrolysis) against technologies that only produce electricity (e.g., natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture) or only produce hydrogen. Our framework starts with rigorous physics-based process models, built in the open-source Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) modeling and optimization platform, for six energy process concepts. Using these rigorous models and a workflow to optimally design each technology, the framework is shown to be capable of evaluating new and emerging technologies in varying energy markets under a plethora of future scenarios (i.e., renewables penetration, carbon tax, etc.). Ultimately, our framework finds that solid oxide fuel cell-based coproduction systems achieve positive profits for 85% of the analyzed market scenarios. From these market optimization results, we use multivariate linear regression (R 2 values up to 0.99) to determine which electricity price statistics are most significant to predict the optimized annual profit of each system. The proposed framework provides a powerful tool for directly comparing flexible, multi-product energy process concepts to help discern optimal technology and integration options.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A New Plasma Radar Concept for Simultaneous Magnetic and Density Measurements

An innovative, compact 288GHz interferometer has been fabricated, tested, installed and successfully demonstrated on the LAPD-U magnetized plasma at UCLA. The system takes advantage of frequency modulated (FM) radar techniques to deliver a compact heterodyne system. In addition, the reflected power from the source is taken advantage of to eliminate the need for additional quasi-optical components. Electron density in LAPD-U plasma has recently been increased substantially thereby requiring a higher frequency/shorter wavelength interferometer to avoid deleterious refractive effects. This system satisfies those needs. The system uses a 96GHz varactor tuned Gunn oscillator which passes to a passive tripler. This tripler has ~3% conversion efficiency. The 288GHz radiation is then coupled to free space using a so-called dual-mode or Pickett horn. The output 288GHz beam is then coupled to an aspheric lens manufactured from low-loss, high-density polyethylene. This lens is employed to collimate the emerging beam. Small axial adjustment of the lens position can also be used to create a slowly focusing beam so as to optimize the measured signal. In addition, up-down or side-to-side adjustment of the lens can be utilized to steer the beam vertically or horizontally – again to optimize alignment. The propagating beam passes through a beam splitter and then through a water-free, bubble-free fused quartz window into the LAPD-U vacuum vessel. The beam-splitter is a thin sheet of G10 which reflects a small fraction of the incident power (~5 %) towards a zero-bias detector optimized for the frequency range from 220 to 300GHz. Note that waveguides at this frequency have dimensions of ~0.9mm x 0.45mm and so have very large conductive losses. This drives the use of quasi-optical propagation. The detector requires no DC bias and is very responsive (> 1V/mW into 1MΩ). Radiation is coupled to the detector via a similar lens-horn arrangement used for the launch. This reflected beam acts as the local oscillator or reference millimeter-wave beam for the detector. The remainder of the launched source beam then enters the LAPD-U vacuum vessel and passes through the plasma at the mid-plane until reaching the opposing port which is closed off with an aluminum flange. This flange is used as a mirror to retroreflect the incident 288GHz beam back along its path. The retroreflected beam exits the input port but does NOT couple directly into the zero-bias detector. Instead, the majority of the return power continues towards the 288GHz source. As mentioned above the transmitted beam enters the source a second time. This would appear undesirable. However, at these frequencies multipliers are highly non-linear elements which results in a significant portion of the return beam (~20%) re-emerging from the multiplier and horn and then coupling via the G10 beam-splitter to the zero-bias detector. This approach eliminated the need for a second quasi-optical beam-splitter. The system is extremely compact measuring approximately 28 inches x 20 inches. The above did not explain how heterodyne operation was achieved. As mentioned above the Gunn oscillator is able to be varactor tuned. This allows a low voltage to be applied to control the operating frequency of the Gunn oscillator. During heterodyne operation a sawtooth shaped voltage is applied to the varactor at 750kHz using an 80MHz Arbitrary Waveform Generator (AWG). This voltage changes the Gunn frequency linearly during the up-sweep which is then reset abruptly at the sawtooth crash to be immediately followed by another linear sweep. Passage through the 288GHz multiplier triples the frequency change experienced by the electromagnetic wave. These frequency changes are small – tens of megahertz. This FM radar approach results in the launched electromagnetic wave frequencies at the detector for the reference and plasma wave to be different. The approximately 10 ns delay propagation delay for the plasma beam results in the local oscillator and plasma beams NOT having an identical frequency – there is in fact a fixed difference frequency. The frequency tuning level of the Gunn oscillator is then adjusted so that there is ONE cycle of this difference frequency during each linear ramp. During the sawtooth crash or downward re-sweep this one cycle replays in reverse but on a very fast timescale. The process then repeats. Low-pass filtering eliminates the fast re-sweep to leave a pure sine wave heterodyne signal. When the plasma is present it introduces a phase delay in the sine wave (caused by the extremely small Doppler shift resulting from the optical path length change). Of course, to measure this phase change we need a reference. This is simply obtained from an arbitrary waveform generator which provides a synchronized output pulse train which again is low pass filtered to obtain a 750kHz sinusoidal voltage reference for the interferometer. The interferometer was installed on LAPD-U where it has worked reliably and has established that electron densities exceeding 1x10 13 cm -3 are routinely achieved. In addition, the system sensitivity was able to easily observe density fluctuation at frequencies up to 50kHz. FM Radar techniques have enabled a full demonstration of a compact, sensitive, high frequency (288GHz/1mm) heterodyne interferometer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Physics Basis, Optimization, and Control for Integrated 3D Edge Long-pulse Tokamak Scenarios

The aim of this project with international collaborations (PI: J.-K. Park of Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory) is to develop a unified physics basis and predictive capability for the control of edge-localized modes (ELMs) with optimized non-axisymmetric (3D) fields, by leveraging the unique research capabilities of international KSTAR tokamak in Korea. At the University of California, Irvine, we use a fusion simulation code GTC to study the effects of the 3D magnetic fields (including both magnetic islands and stochastic magnetic field lines) on microturbulence. We focus on the effects of 3D equilibrium on turbulent and neoclassical transport that leads to ELM suppression. During the project period, the UCI team of this collaboration has made significant progress in understanding turbulent transport in 3D geometry including both tokamaks with RMP and stellarators. Four UCI postdoctoral researchers, Drs. Javier Nicolau, Gyungjin Choi, Pengfei Liu, and Xishuo Wei were partially supported by this project and collaborating with the entire project team. We have published 4 journal papers and gave several invited talks. This project advance physics understand of 3D effects on microturbulence, specially effects of magnetic islands. It will contribute to the DOE SciDAC ISEP project in the area of GTC development for general 3D geometry capability, rigorous verification and validation, and readiness for the emerging exascale computing. Through collaborations with computational scientists, the project helps to advance high performance computing in the area of GPU acceleration, linear solver, and data management.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantifying Square Membrane Wrinkle Behavior Using MITC Shell Elements

For future membrane based structures, quantified predictions of membrane wrinkling behavior in terms of amplitude, angle and wavelength are needed to optimize the efficiency and integrity of such structures, as well as their associated control systems. For numerical analyses performed in the past, limitations on the accuracy of membrane distortion simulations have often been related to the assumptions made while using finite elements. Specifically, this work demonstrates that critical assumptions include: effects of gravity. supposed initial or boundary conditions, and the type of element used to model the membrane. In this work, a 0.2 square meter membrane is treated as a structural material with non-negligible bending stiffness. Mixed Interpolation of Tensorial Components (MTTC) shell elements are used to simulate wrinkling behavior due to a constant applied in-plane shear load. Membrane thickness, gravity effects, and initial imperfections with respect to flatness were varied in numerous nonlinear analysis cases. Significant findings include notable variations in wrinkle modes for thickness in the range of 50 microns to 1000 microns, which also depend on the presence of an applied gravity field. However, it is revealed that relationships between overall strain energy density for cases with differing initial conditions are independent of assumed initial con&tions. In addition, analysis results indicate that the relationship between amplitude scale (W/t) and structural scale (L/t) is linear in the presence of a gravity field.

Jacobson, Mindy B.↗

Improving deep learning performance for predicting large-scale geological ${{CO}_{2}}$ sequestration modeling through feature coarsening

Physics-based reservoir simulation for fluid flow in porous media is a numerical simulation method to predict the temporal-spatial patterns of state variables (e.g. pressure p) in porous media, and usually requires prohibitively high computational expense due to its non-linearity and the large number of degrees of freedom (DoF). This work describes a deep learning (DL) workflow to predict the pressure evolution as fluid flows in large-scale 3-dimensional(3D) heterogeneous porous media. In particular, we develop an efficient feature coarsening technique to extract the most representative information and perform the training and prediction of DL at the coarse scale, and further recover the resolution at the fine scale by spatial interpolation. We validate the DL approach to predict pressure field against physics-based simulation data for a field-scale 3D geologic CO 2 sequestration reservoir model. We evaluate the impact of feature coarsening on DL performance, and observe that the feature coarsening not only decreases the training time by >74% and reduces the memory consumption by >75%, but also maintains temporal error 0.63% on average. Besides, the DL workflow provides predictive efficiency with 1406 times speedup compared to physics-based numerical simulation. The key findings from this research significantly improve the training and prediction efficiency of deep learning model to deal with large-scale heterogeneous reservoir models, and thus it can also be further applied to accelerate workflows of history matching and reservoir optimization for close-loop reservoir management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Robust Molecular Predictive Methods for Novel Polymer Discovery and Applications

Polymeric materials are ubiquitous in modern society and they play an instrumental role in almost all industries, undoubtedly including the energy and environment sectors. Increased demand of energy and awareness to sustainability both necessitates the development of novel polymers with enhanced properties. Unfortunately, their structural and behavioral complexity render such discovery challenging and impeded. To address this problem, scientists are developing various computational modeling techniques and leveraging their power to depict the relationship between structural characteristics of polymers and their properties (such as rheological behaviors), and use such prediction to guide the design and syntheses of novel polymeric materials with enhanced performances. Unfortunately, predicting the relationships between polymer structure and composition with rheological properties via atomistic modeling is still a major challenge because of the extended time and length scales involved. Studying dynamic shear viscosity and linear viscoelasticity using molecular models requires capabilities that have been elusive, including representation of large molecular weight chains with an effective internal scale capable of describing entanglement, shear-rates that are in the s-1 scale with accurate quantitative stresses, and chemically-realistic combinations of both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Motivated by these unmet challenges, the overall technical objective of this DOE-STTR Phase II project is to develop robust molecular predictive methods for advanced polymer discovery and applications and especially for designing and demonstrating the “smart” polymer-based waterflooding enhanced oil recovery (EOR) process. In particular, we apply state-of-the-art molecular modeling methods developed by our academic partner, Materials Stimulation Center (MSC) at California Institute of Technology (Caltech), to facilitate and accelerate the experimental discovery processes. During the Phase I of this project, we had focused on development and demonstration of the molecular modeling methods to describe rheological properties of non-Newtonian polymer fluids, and to improve our fundamental understandings of shear-thickening mechanism and kinetics. In Phase II, we further apply the theoretical models to guide our experimental programs to improve our design of smart rheology modifier (SRM) polymers and their optimization for EOR. Specifically, we have three objectives in the Phase II study: (1) to further improve out computational modeling methods, coupling with the advanced machine learning algorithms; (2) to develop cost-effective and efficient SRM-flooding process suitable for EOR applications under typical reservoir conditions; and (3) to further explore the application of our molecular predictive models for innovative material discovery in other industrial applications. The recent development of our multiscale predictive framework allows the successful prediction of rheological properties from the chemical structure for polymers of experimentally relevant molecular weights, and provides an in-silico machine learning engine for screening novel compositions and structures with optimized non-Newtonian response, required for both shear-thinning and shear-thickening applications. Our framework provides: (1) procedures and tools for systematic coarsening from atomistic models and reverse mapping of coarse-grain models to atomistic, (2) unique ab initio methods to characterize the atomistic origin of colloidal and interfacial interactions and phenomena, (3) systematic structure and composition builders based on practical descriptors that drive rheological changes in polymer melts and diluted polymer mixtures, (4) a rheological properties engine capable of predicting viscosity in the zero-shear limit and under realistic dynamic conditions (for shear-rates commensurate with experiments) for large heterogeneous systems, (5) coarse-grain force fields with improved non-bond descriptions based on accurate quantum mechanics, (6) an in-silico screening machine learning engine that feeds from the systematic model builders to cover the descriptors search space, computes the rheological properties from converged trajectories spanning sub-milliseconds and ranks them for each structure/composition using an automated viscosity-vs-shear rate fitness function that can be tuned for shear-thickening, shear-thinning and other rheological responses.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Nth-plant scenario for forest resources and short rotation woody crops: Biorefineries and depots in the contiguous US

Estimating the US potential of woody material is of vital importance to ensure cost-effective supply logistics and develop a sustainable bioenergy and bioproducts industry. We analyzed a mature conversion technology for woody resources for the contiguous US that takes advantage of economies of scale: the nth-plant. Here, we developed a database to quantify the total accessible woody biomass within a distributed network of preprocessing depots and biorefineries considering both quality specifications for conversion and a target cost to compete with fossil fuels. We considered two categories of woody biomass: 1) forest residues from trees, tops and limbs produced from conventional thinning and timber harvesting operations as well as non-timber tree removal; and 2) short rotation woody crops such as poplar, willow, pine, and eucalyptus. A mixed integer linear programming model was developed to analyze scenarios with woody feedstock blends at variable biomass ash contents and cost targets at the biorefinery. When considering a target cost of 85.51 dollars/dry ton (2016$) at the biorefinery, the maximum accessible biomass from forest residues in 2040 remained constant at 106 million dry tons regardless of ash targets. Including short rotation woody crops as part of the blend increased the total accessible biomass to 153 and 195 million dry tons at ash targets of 1% and 1.75%, respectively. We concluded from our analysis that woody resources could address about 55% of EPA’s (Environmental Protection Agency) target of 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Novel artificial neural network model for instantaneous power losses and operational efficiency mapping of MW-scale vanadium redox flow battery for improved technoeconomic analysis

A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of Curved-Plate Elements for the Exact Buckling Analysis of Composite Plate Assemblies Including Transverse-Shear Effects

The analytical formulation of curved-plate non-linear equilibrium equations including transverse-shear-deformation effects is presented. A unified set of non-linear strains that contains terms from both physical and tensorial strain measures is used. Linearized, perturbed equilibrium equations (stability equations) that describe the response of the plate just after buckling occurs are derived. These equations are then modified to allow the plate reference surface to be located a distance z(sub c) from the centroidal surface. The implementation of the new theory into the VICONOPT exact buckling and vibration analysis and optimum design computer program is described. The terms of the plate stiffness matrix using both classical plate theory (CPT) and first-order shear-deformation plate theory (SDPT) are presented. The effects of in-plane transverse and in-plane shear loads are included in the in-plane stability equations. Numerical results for several example problems with different loading states are presented. Comparisons of analyses using both physical and tensorial strain measures as well as CPT and SDPT are made. The computational effort required by the new analysis is compared to that of the analysis currently in the VICONOPT program. The effects of including terms related to in-plane transverse and in-plane shear loadings in the in-plane stability equations are also examined. Finally, results of a design-optimization study of two different cylindrical shells subject to uniform axial compression are presented.

McGowan, David M.↗

How to detect lensing rotation

Gravitational lensing rotation of images is predicted to be negligible at linear order in density perturbations, but can be produced by the post-Born lens-lens coupling at second order. This rotation is somewhat enhanced for Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing due to the large source path length, but remains small and very challenging to detect directly by CMB lensing reconstruction alone. We show the rotation may be detectable at high significance as a cross-correlation signal between the curl reconstructed with Simons Observatory (SO) or CMB-S4 data, and a template constructed from quadratic combinations of large-scale structure (LSS) tracers. Equivalently, the lensing rotation-tracer-tracer bispectrum can also be detected, where LSS tracers considered include the CMB lensing convergence, galaxy density, and the Cosmic Infrared Background (CIB), or optimal combinations thereof. We forecast that an optimal combination of these tracers can probe post-Born rotation at the level of 5.7σ–6.1σ with SO and 13.6σ–14.7σ for CMB-S4, depending on whether standard quadratic estimators or maximum a posteriori iterative methods are deployed. We also show possible improvement up to 21.3σ using a CMB-S4 deep patch observation with polarization-only iterative lensing reconstruction. However, these cross-correlation signals have non-zero bias because the rotation template is quadratic in the tracers, and exists even if the lensing is rotation free. We estimate this bias analytically, and test it using simple null-hypothesis simulations to confirm that the bias remains subdominant to the rotation signal of interest. Detection and then measurement of the lensing rotation cross-spectrum is therefore a realistic target for future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Patch2Self2: Self-supervised Denoising on Coresets via Matrix Sketching

Diffusion MRI (dMRI) non-invasively maps brain white matter yet necessitates denoising due to low signal-to-noise ratios. Patch2Self (P2S) employing self-supervised techniques and regression on a Casorati matrix effectively denoises dMRI images and has become the new de-facto standard in this field. P2S however is resource intensive both in terms of running time and memory usage as it uses all voxels (n) from all-but-one held-in volumes (d-1) to learn a linear mapping Phi : \mathbb R ^ n x(d-1) \mapsto \mathbb R ^ n for denoising the held-out volume. The increasing size and dimensionality of higher resolution dMRI acquisitions can make P2S infeasible for large-scale analyses. This work exploits the redundancy imposed by P2S to alleviate its performance issues and inspect regions that influence the noise disproportionately. Specifically this study makes a three-fold contribution: (1) We present Patch2Self2 (P2S2) a method that uses matrix sketching to perform self-supervised denoising. By solving a sub-problem on a smaller sub-space so called coreset we show how P2S2 can yield a significant speedup in training time while using less memory. (2) We present a theoretical analysis of P2S2 focusing on determining the optimal sketch size through rank estimation a key step in achieving a balance between denoising accuracy and computational efficiency. (3) We show how the so-called statistical leverage scores can be used to interpret the denoising of dMRI data a process that was traditionally treated as a black-box. Experimental results on both simulated and real data affirm that P2S2 maintains denoising quality while significantly enhancing speed and memory efficiency achieved by training on a reduced data subset.

Fadnavis, Shreyas↗

Differentiable Multiphysics Codes: A Breakthrough Technology for Simulation and Computing

This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗