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NASA NTRS2007

Improved AIRS/AMSU Surface and Atmospheric Soundings Under Partial Cloud Cover Using an AIRS Only Cloud Clearing Approach

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4,2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. This paper describes the latest scientific advances made in the AIRS Science Team Version 5.0 retrieval algorithm. Starting in early 2007, the Goddard DAAC will use this algorithm to analyze near real time AIRS/AMSU observations. These products are then made available to the scientific community for research purposes. The products include twice daily measurements of the Earth's three dimensional global temperature, water vapor, and ozone distribution as well as cloud cover. In addition, accurate twice daily measurements of the earth's land and ocean temperatures are derived and reported. Scientists use this important set of observations for two major uses. They provide important information for climate studies of global and regional variability and trends of different aspects of the earth's atmosphere. They also provide information for researchers to improve the skill of weather forecasting. A very important new product of the AIRS Version 5 algorithm is accurate case-by-case error estimates of the retrieved products. This heightens their utility for use in both weather and climate applications. These error estimates are also used directly for quality control of the retrieved products.

Susskind, Dr. Joel↗
NASA NTRS2007

Recent Theoretical Advances in Analysis of AIRS/AMSU Sounding Data

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4,2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. This paper describes the AIRS Science Team Version 5.0 retrieval algorithm. Starting in early 2007, the Goddard DAAC will use this algorithm to analyze near real time AIRS/AMSU observations. These products are then made available to the scientific community for research purposes. The products include twice daily measurements of the Earth's three dimensional global temperature, water vapor, and ozone distribution as well as cloud cover. In addition, accurate twice daily measurements of the earth's land and ocean temperatures are derived and reported. Scientists use this important set of observations for two major applications. They provide important information for climate studies of global and regional variability and trends of different aspects of the earth's atmosphere. They also provide information for researchers to improve the skill of weather forecasting. A very important new product of the AIRS Version 5 algorithm is accurate case-by-case error estimates of the retrieved products. This heightens their utility for use in both weather and climate applications. These error estimates are also used directly for quality control of the retrieved products. Version 5 also allows for accurate quality controlled AIRS only retrievals, called "Version 5 AO retrievals" which can be used as a backup methodology if AMSU fails. Examples of the accuracy of error estimates and quality controlled retrieval products of the AIRS/AMSU Version 5 and Version 5 AO algorithms are given, and shown to be significantly better than the previously used Version 4 algorithm. Assimilation of Version 5 retrievals are also shown to significantly improve forecast skill, especially when the case-by-case error estimates are utilized in the data assimilation process.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2010

Biomass Burning Emissions from Fire Remote Sensing

Knowledge of the emission source strengths of different (particulate and gaseous) atmospheric constituents is one of the principal ingredients upon which the modeling and forecasting of their distribution and impacts depend. Biomass burning emissions are complex and difficult to quantify. However, satellite remote sensing is providing us tremendous opportunities to measure the fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP), which has a direct relationship with the rates of biomass consumption and emissions of major smoke constituents. In this presentation, we will show how the satellite measurement of FRP is facilitating the quantitative characterization of biomass burning and smoke emission rates, and the implications of this unique capability for improving our understanding of smoke impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. We will also discuss some of the challenges and uncertainties associated with satellite measurement of FRP and how they are being addressed.

Ichoku, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Tropopause folds are identified by warm, dry, high-potential vorticity, ozone-rich air and are one explanation for damaging non-convective wind events. Could improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated tropopause folding improve non-convective wind forecasts and high wind warnings? The goal of this study is to assess the impact of assimilating Hyperspectral Infrared (IR) profiles on forecasting stratospheric air, tropopause folds, and associated non-convective winds: (1) AIRS: Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (2) IASI: Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (3) CrIMSS: Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite

Brendt. Emily↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Pan-Tropical Cascade of Fire Driven by El Nino/Southern Oscillation

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a pronounced influence on year-to-year variations in climate. The response of fires to this forcing is complex and has not been evaluated systematically across different continents. Here we use satellite data to create a climatology of burned-area and fire emissions responses, drawing on six El Nino and six La Nina events during 1997-2016. On average, reductions in precipitation and terrestrial water storage increased fire emissions in pan-tropical forests by 133% during and following El Nino as compared with La Nina. Fires peaked in equatorial Asia early in the ENSO cycle when El Nino was strengthening (Aug-Oct), before moving to southeast Asia and northern South America (Jan-Apr), Central America (Mar-May) and the southern Amazon (Jul-Oct) during the following year. Large decreases in fire occurred across northern Australia during Sep-Oct of the second year from a reduced fuel availability. Satellite observations of aerosols and carbon monoxide provided independent confirmation of the spatiotemporal evolution of fire anomalies. The predictable cascade of fire across different tropical continents described here highlights an important time delay in the Earth system's response to precipitation redistribution. These observations help to explain why the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 increases during El Nino and may contribute to improved seasonal fire forecasts.

Chen, Yang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging Observing System Simulation Experiments for Satellite Instrument Design: Advancements and Challenges

This abstract highlights NASA's OSSE framework, developed at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, which has become a widely adopted tool for evaluating the impact of new observations on weather forecasts. The framework involves simulating realistic observations by introducing errors to mimic real-world scenarios. By utilizing advanced radiative transfer modeling, the accuracy of simulated observations is significantly improved, enhancing the reliability of experimental outcomes. The talk focuses on recent progress and challenges in three key areas. Firstly, it explores the techniques used to simulate synthetic observations, a crucial aspect of OSSE experiments. Secondly, the presentation also discusses the challenges of examining the observation errors that need to be added to the perfect observations to generate realistic simulated observations. Lastly, the assimilation of synthetic observations and their impact on forecast skills is evaluated, providing valuable insights for optimizing current and future observing systems for improving the weather forecasts. By sharing recent advancements and acknowledging challenges, this presentation seeks to inspire researchers to leverage the OSSE framework in weather forecasting. NASA's OSSE techniques hold promise for a better understanding of the atmosphere and the development of more accurate and reliable weather predictions.

Isaac Moradi↗
NASA NTRS2004

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) with the goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. The coupled instability as cap'tured by the breeding method is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Our results show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BV) peaks at about 3 months before a background ENSO event. The dominant growing BV modes are reminiscent of the background ENSO anomalies and show a strong tropical response with wind/SST/thermocline interrelated in a manner similar to the background ENSO mode. They exhibit larger amplitudes in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the presence of the shallow thermocline. Moreover, the extratropical perturbations associated with these coupled BV modes reveal the variations related to the atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with background ENSO variability, e.g. over the North Pacific and North America. A similar experiment was carried out with the NCEP/CFS03 CGCM. Comparisons between bred vectors from the NSIPP CGCM and NCEP/CFS03 CGCM demonstrate the robustness of the results. Our results strongly suggest that the breeding method can serve as a natural filter to identify the slowly varying, coupled instabilities in a coupled GCM, which can be used to construct ensemble perturbations for ensemble forecasts and to estimate the coupled background error covariance for coupled data assimilation.

Yang, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modelling TOVS radiances of synoptic systems

Two operational analysis models, produced by ECMWF and NMC, are compared against observed satellite radiances by converting the analyzed variables into synthetic radiances using a radiative transfer model (RTM). Observed TOVS satellite radiances are used as a ground truth, since they are the only source of continuous, synoptic-scale resolution observations available over the data-sparse tropical Pacific Ocean. It is assumed that if the analysis models correctly simulate atmospheric conditions, the observed and modelled radiance fields will have similar patterns and magnitudes. In each of seven TOVS channels examined, the mean temperature difference between the models was small, but the differences between the models and the observations were large. The mean temperature difference within each channel was larger than the standard deviation in most cases. The moisture channels of the RTM were sensitive to changes in moisture content, but none of the channels were significantly affected by changes in temperature. Single-day modelled radiance analyses contain synoptic information similar to the satellite observations. ECMWF is often too noisy, producing features not verified by the satellite; NMC is often too smooth. NMC more closely resembles the TOVS contours. Modelled water vapor channel analyses resemble observed monthly and composited observations well, but do not accurately reproduce the highly-variable single-day fields. ECMWF generally has more accurate gradients. Neither model simulates the tropics well. The water vapor channels, especially channel eleven (weighted at 700 mb), most closely resembled the tropical plume composite described by McGuirk and Ulsh. The only plume evidence found in the thermal or microwave channels, in either the observations or the models, was a composite trough situated in the correct location, extending from the mid-latitudes into the subtropics. This feature was not readily discernable until the definition and mature stages. Additional information besides the modelled temperatures would be required to produce an accurate forecast for the tropics. Model patterns more closely resembled the observations in the quiescent atmosphere, though the magnitudes were not any closer. ECMWF simulates the TOVS quiescent state better than NMC. The moisture channels continue to present the most realistic patterns. The models contained more detail in the tropics than was verified by the satellite observations, apparently trying to force an active ITCZ. Lag correlations showed TOVS to be more persistent than the models. TOVS also showed a smoother lag trend, but all products appeared to have adequate ability to react to changes in the atmosphere over time.

Coe, Thomas Eddy↗
NASA NTRS1988

Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model

The global climate effects of time-dependent atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variations are simulated by NASA-Goddard's three-dimensional climate model II, which possesses 8 x 10-deg horizontal resolution, for the cases of a 100-year control run and three different atmospheric composition scenarios in which trace gas growth is respectively a continuation of current exponential trends, a reduced linear growth, and a rapid curtailment of emissions due to which net climate forcing no longer increases after the year 2000. The experiments begin in 1958, run to the present, and encompass measured or estimated changes in CO2, CH4, N2O, chlorofluorocarbons, and stratospheric aerosols. It is shown that the greenhouse warming effect may be clearly identifiable in the 1990s.

Hansen, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is carrying the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with 1" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SAO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." Our presentation will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO/HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗
NASA NTRS2018

GEOS S2S-2_1: The GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was recently released by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution than the previous, (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, and now includes the assimilation of along-track sea surface height. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. Analysis of the ensemble spread shows improvements relative to the previous system, including generally better reliability. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only tradeoff is an increased "double ITCZ", which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2001

Observing System Forecast Experiments at the DAO

Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, numerous experiments have been conducted in order to evaluate the impact of these and other data on atmospheric analysis and prediction. Such studies have included both OSE'S and OSSE's. The OSE's were conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. Such experiments have been performed for selected types of conventional data and for various satellite data sets as they became available. (See for example the 1989 ECMWF/EUMETSAT workshop proceedings on "The use of satellite data in operational numerical weather prediction" and the references contained therein.) The ODYSSEY were conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve Numerical Weather Prediction NWP and to plan for the Global Weather Experiment and more recently for EVANS (Atlas et al., 1985a; Arnold and Day, 1986; Hoffman et al., 1990). In addition, OSSE's have been run to evaluate trade-offs in the design of observing systems and observing networks (Atlas and Emmitt, 1991; Rohaly and Krishnamurti, 1993), and to test new methodology for data assimilation (Atlas and Bloom, 1989).

Atlas, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1993

The impact of clouds on the shortwave radiation budget of the surface-atmosphere system - Interfacing measurements and models

Two datasets have been combined to demonstrate how the availability of more comprehensive datasets could serve to elucidate the shortwave radiative impact of clouds on both the atmospheric column and the surface. These datasets consist of two measurements of net downward shortwave radiation: one of near-surface measurements made at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory tower, and the other of collocated top-of-the-atmosphere measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Output from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts General Circulation Model also has been used as an aid in interpreting the data, while the data have in turn been employed to validate the model's shortwave radiation code as it pertains to cloud radiation properties. Combined, the datasets and model demonstrate a strategy for determining under what conditions the shortwave radiative impact of clouds leads to a heating or cooling of the atmospheric column. The datasets also show, in terms of a linear slope-offset algorithm for retrieving the net downward shortwave radiation at the surface from satellite measurements, that the clouds present during this study produced a modest negative bias in the retrieved surface flux relative to that inferred from a clear-sky algorithm.

Cess, Robert D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

GEWEX Water and Energy Budget Study

Closing the global water and energy budgets has been an elusive Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment (GEWEX) goal. It has been difficult to gather many of the needed global water and energy variables and processes, although, because of GEWEX, we now have globally gridded observational estimates for precipitation and radiation and many other relevant variables such as clouds and aerosols. Still, constrained models are required to fill in many of the process and variable gaps. At least there are now several atmospheric reanalyses ranging from the early National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalyses to the more recent ERA40 and JRA-25 reanalyses. Atmospheric constraints include requirements that the models state variables remain close to in situ observations or observed satellite radiances. This is usually done by making short-term forecasts from an analyzed initial state; these short-term forecasts provide the next guess, which is corrected by comparison to available observations. While this analysis procedure is likely to result in useful global descriptions of atmospheric temperature, wind and humidity, there is no guarantee that relevant hydroclimate processes like precipitation, which we can observe and evaluate, and evaporation over land, which we cannot, have similar verisimilitude. Alternatively, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), drives uncoupled land surface models with precipitation, surface solar radiation, and surface meteorology (from bias-corrected reanalyses during the study period) to simulate terrestrial states and surface fluxes. Further constraints are made when a tuned water balance model is used to characterize the global runoff observational estimates. We use this disparate mix of observational estimates, reanalyses, GLDAS and calibrated water balance simulations to try to characterize and close global and terrestrial atmospheric and surface water and energy budgets to within 10-20% for long term (1986-1995), large-scale global to regional annual means.

Roads, J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Stochastic Convection Parameterizations

computational fluid dynamics, radiation, clouds, turbulence, convection, gravity waves, surface interaction, radiation interaction, cloud and aerosol microphysics, complexity (vegetation, biogeochemistry, radiation versus turbulence/convection stochastic approach, non-linearities, Monte Carlo, high resolutions, large-Eddy Simulations, cloud structure, plumes, saturation in tropics, forecasting, parameterizations, stochastic, radiation-clod interaction, hurricane forecasts

atmospheric models↗
NASA NTRS1989

A mesoscale numerical simulation of an index for use in the forecasting of the potential severity of wet microbursts

This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using the wet microburst potential intensity index developed by Proctor (1989) for predicting the onset of a wet microburst. After describing the index and the principles involved in its derivation, the version 4.0 of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model described by Karyampudi et al. (1988) was used to illustrate how the index would perform as a forecast product. An analysis is presented of the use of the microburst potential intensity index in the numerical simulation of the DFR aircraft accident on August 2, 1985 in a downburst environment.

Zack, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Near Real-time Derived Products from MODIS

As part of the Short-term Prediction Research Transition (SPoRT) program at NASA/MSFC, near real-time total precipitable water and land/sea surface temperature products from MODIS, on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, are being derived from a subset of MODIS channels with spectral characteristics similar to those planned for the GOES-R ABI. Under the SPoRT program these products are made available to several NWS Forecast Offices to assist in the preparation of short-term forecasts. This transition activity, from research to operations, serves to prepare forecasters for the next generation of satellite observing capabilities through real-time, hands-on applications to their forecast problems. The derived products are produced from a physical retrieval algorithm which can be applied to polar or geostationary measurements. The algorithm is a perturbation solution of the radiation transfer equation for a nonscattering atmosphere requiring first-guess temperature and moisture profiles. For this application first-guess information is obtained from the latest model forecasts. The utility of this retrieval approach is that it provides a near real-time high resolution update of a model's forecasted parameter allowing forecasters to validate and monitor the performance of the model's forecast. The poster will provide a description of the retrieval methodology and examples of the derived products. Case studies will also be presented comparing these products with those obtained from the Earth Observing System (EOS) MODIS science team algorithms.

Suggs, Ron↗