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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Large-Scale Optimization for Bayesian Inference in Complex Systems

The SAGUARO (Scalable Algorithms for Groundwater Uncertainty Analysis and Robust Optimization) Project focused on the development of scalable numerical algorithms for large-scale Bayesian inversion in complex systems that capitalize on advances in large-scale simulation-based optimization and inversion methods. The project was a collaborative effort among MIT, the University of Texas at Austin, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Sandia National Laboratories. The research was directed in three complementary areas: efficient approximations of the Hessian operator, reductions in complexity of forward simulations via stochastic spectral approximations and model reduction, and employing large-scale optimization concepts to accelerate sampling. The MIT₋Sandia component of the SAGUARO Project addressed the intractability of conventional sampling methods for large-scale statistical inverse problems by devising reduced-order models that are faithful to the full-order model over a wide range of parameter values; sampling then employs the reduced model rather than the full model, resulting in very large computational savings. Results indicate little effect on the computed posterior distribution. On the other hand, in the Texas₋Georgia Tech component of the project, we retain the full-order model, but exploit inverse problem structure (adjoint-based gradients and partial Hessian information of the parameter-to-observation map) to implicitly extract lower dimensional information on the posterior distribution; this greatly speeds up sampling methods, so that fewer sampling points are needed. We can think of these two approaches as "reduce then sample" and "sample then reduce." In fact, these two approaches are complementary, and can be used in conjunction with each other. Moreover, they both exploit deterministic inverse problem structure, in the form of adjoint-based gradient and Hessian information of the underlying parameter-to-observation map, to achieve their speedups.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Bayesian framework for adaptive selection, calibration, and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems

A general adaptive modeling algorithm for selection and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems is presented. A Bayesian framework is developed to address uncertainties in parameters, data, and model selection. Algorithms for computing output sensitivities to parameter variances, model evidence and posterior model plausibilities for given data, and for computing what are referred to as Occam Categories in reference to a rough measure of model simplicity, make up components of the overall approach. Computational results are provided for representative applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deriving cloud droplet number concentration from surface-based remote sensors with an emphasis on lidar measurements

Abstract. Given the importance of constraining cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) in low-level clouds, we explore two methods for retrieving Nd from surface-based remote sensing that emphasize the information content in lidar measurements. Because Nd is the zeroth moment of the droplet size distribution (DSD), and all remote sensing approaches respond to DSD moments that are at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the zeroth moment, deriving Nd from remote sensing measurements has significant uncertainty. At minimum, such algorithms require the extrapolation of information from two other measurements that respond to different moments of the DSD. Lidar, for instance, is sensitive to the second moment (cross-sectional area) of the DSD, while other measures from microwave sensors respond to higher-order moments. We develop methods using a simple lidar forward model that demonstrates that the depth to the maximum in lidar-attenuated backscatter (Rmax⁡) is strongly sensitive to Nd when some measure of the liquid water content vertical profile is given or assumed. Knowledge of Rmax⁡ to within 5 m can constrain Nd to within several tens of percent. However, operational lidar networks provide vertical resolutions of > 15 m, making a direct calculation of Nd from Rmax⁡ very uncertain. Therefore, we develop a Bayesian optimal estimation algorithm that brings additional information to the inversion such as lidar-derived extinction and radar reflectivity near the cloud top. This statistical approach provides reasonable characterizations of Nd and effective radius (re) to within approximately a factor of 2 and 30 %, respectively. By comparing surface-derived cloud properties with MODIS satellite and aircraft data collected during the MARCUS and CAPRICORN II campaigns, we demonstrate the utility of the methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying microbial drivers in biological phenotypes with a Bayesian network regression model

Abstract In Bayesian Network Regression models, networks are considered the predictors of continuous responses. These models have been successfully used in brain research to identify regions in the brain that are associated with specific human traits, yet their potential to elucidate microbial drivers in biological phenotypes for microbiome research remains unknown. In particular, microbial networks are challenging due to their high dimension and high sparsity compared to brain networks. Furthermore, unlike in brain connectome research, in microbiome research, it is usually expected that the presence of microbes has an effect on the response (main effects), not just the interactions. Here, we develop the first thorough investigation of whether Bayesian Network Regression models are suitable for microbial datasets on a variety of synthetic and real data under diverse biological scenarios. We test whether the Bayesian Network Regression model that accounts only for interaction effects (edges in the network) is able to identify key drivers (microbes) in phenotypic variability. We show that this model is indeed able to identify influential nodes and edges in the microbial networks that drive changes in the phenotype for most biological settings, but we also identify scenarios where this method performs poorly which allows us to provide practical advice for domain scientists aiming to apply these tools to their datasets. BNR models provide a framework for microbiome researchers to identify connections between microbes and measured phenotypes. We allow the use of this statistical model by providing an easy‐to‐use implementation which is publicly available Julia package at https://github.com/solislemuslab/BayesianNetworkRegression.jl .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

New constraints on warm dark matter from the Lyman- α forest power spectrum

The forest of Lyman-α absorption lines detected in the spectra of distant quasars encodes information on the nature and properties of dark matter and the thermodynamics of diffuse baryonic material. Its main observable—the 1D flux power spectrum (FPS)—should exhibit a suppression on small scales and an enhancement on large scales in warm dark matter (WDM) cosmologies compared to standard Λ⁢CDM. Here, we present an unprecedented suite of 1080 high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamical simulations run with the graphics processing unit-accelerated code cholla to study the evolution of the Lyman-α forest under a wide range of physically motivated gas thermal histories along with different free-streaming lengths of WDM thermal relics in the early Universe. A statistical comparison of synthetic data with the forest FPS measured down to the smallest velocity scales ever probed at redshifts 4.0≲z≲5.2 [E. Boera et al., Revealing reionization with the thermal history of the intergalactic medium: New constraints from the Ly⁢α flux power spectrum, Astrophys. J. 872, 101 (2019)] yields a lower-limit m WDM >3.1 keV (95% C.L.) for the WDM particle mass and constrains the amplitude and spectrum of the photoheating and photoionizing background produced by star-forming galaxies and active galactic nuclei at these redshifts. Interestingly, our Bayesian inference analysis appears to weakly favor WDM models with a peak likelihood value at the thermal relic mass of m WDM =4.5 keV. In conclusion, we find that the suppression of the FPS from free-streaming saturates at k≳0.1 s km -1 because of peculiar velocity smearing, and this saturated suppression combined with a slightly lower gas temperature provides a moderately better fit to the observed small-scale FPS for WDM cosmologies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Causal network inference using biochemical kinetics

Motivation: Networks are widely used as structural summaries of biochemical systems. Statistical estimation of networks is usually based on linear or discrete models. However, the dynamics of biochemical systems are generally non-linear, suggesting that suitable non-linear formulations may offer gains with respect to causal network inference and aid in associated prediction problems. Results: We present a general framework for network inference and dynamical prediction using time course data that is rooted in nonlinear biochemical kinetics. This is achieved by considering a dynamical system based on a chemical reaction graph with associated kinetic parameters. Both the graph and kinetic parameters are treated as unknown; inference is carried out within a Bayesian framework. This allows prediction of dynamical behavior even when the underlying reaction graph itself is unknown or uncertain. Results, based on (i) data simulated from a mechanistic model of mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling and (ii) phosphoproteomic data from cancer cell lines, demonstrate that non-linear formulations can yield gains in causal network inference and permit dynamical prediction and uncertainty quantification in the challenging setting where the reaction graph is unknown. Availability and implementation: MATLAB R2014a software is available to download from warwick.ac.uk/chrisoates.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Ancel, Ersin↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Suite of Mechanistic Epidemiological Decision Support Tools

Objective: We will demonstrate tools that allow mechanistic contraints on disease progression and epidemic spread to play off against interventions, mitigation, and control measures. The fundamental mechanisms of disease progression and epidemic spread provide important constraints on interpreting changing epidemic cases counts with time and geography in the context of on-going interventions, mitigations, and controls. Models such as these that account for the effects of human actions can also allow evaluation of the importance of categories of epidemic and disease controls. Introduction: We present the EpiEarly, EpiGrid, and EpiCast tools for mechanistically-based biological decision support. The range of tools covers coarse-, medium-, and fine-grained models. The coarse-grained, aggregated time-series only data tool (EpiEarly) provides a statistic quantifying epidemic growth potential and associated uncertainties. The medium grained, geographically-resolved model (EpiGrid) is based on differential equation type simulations of disease and epidemic progression in the presence of various human interventions geared toward understanding the role of infection control, early vs. late diagnosis, vaccination, etc. in outbreak control. A fine-grained hybrid-agent epidemic model (EpiCast) with diurnal agent travel and contagion allows the analysis of the importance of contact-networks, travel, and detailed intervention strategies for the control of outbreaks and epidemics. Methods: We use three types of methods for simulation and analysis. They are: (1) Bayesian and regression methods allowing estimation of the basic reproductive number from case-count data; (2) ordinary-differential equation integration with modifications to account for discreteness of disease spread when case counts are small (we include space- and time-dependent effects); and (3) methods that hybridize agent-based travel, mixing, and disease progression with nested-mass action contagion (i.e. not fully agent-based). From the perspective of decision support, the crucial feature of mechanistic infectious epidemiological models is a way to capture the human interventions that determine epidemic outcome. Categorizing types of mitigation into those that change the force of infection, and those that branch disease progression allows a common framework that can be extended from medium-grained models through fine-grained. Our canonical example is our EpiGrid tool which allows for the modulation of the force of infection (i.e. contagion) with time (and potentially space), the vaccination of a susceptible population in a geographically-targeted manner, movement controls, and branching our disease progression model to account for early- vs. late-intervention during host disease progression.ResultsWe will present analysis of diseases that exemplify the various aspects of analysis in support of outbreak and epidemic control. Human and animal diseases relevant to this demonstration include rinderpest, avian influenza, and measles. We will begin with EpiEarly’s estimate of epidemic potential using aggregated time-dependent case-count data. The key observation for EpiEarly is that under a wide range of situations a disease's reproductive number should be generalized to a distribution of possibilities to account for inherent randomness and other factors (including the variability of a disease contact network). We will then continue with a demonstration of EpiGrid’s capabilities for understanding and modelling the role of interventions including contagion control (the force of infection), treatment (changing disease progression and infectiousness depending on treatment), vaccination, culling, and movement controls. We will briefly touch on the capabilities of EpiCast for more detailed analysis of specific intervention strategies. Conclusions: We will demonstrate examples where modeling either contributed or plausibly would contribute to informing epidemic and outbreak control constrained by the possibilities of the underlying epidemic and disease dynamics.

Geospatial↗
DOE OSTI2020

CODEX weak lensing mass catalogue and implications on the mass–richness relation

The COnstrain Dark Energy with X-ray clusters (CODEX) sample contains the largest flux limited sample of X-ray clusters at 0.35 < z < 0.65. It was selected from ROSAT data in the 10 000 square degrees of overlap with BOSS, mapping a total number of 2770 high-z galaxy clusters. We present here the full results of the CFHT CODEX programme on cluster mass measurement, including a reanalysis of CFHTLS Wide data, with 25 individual lensing-constrained cluster masses. We employ lensfit shape measurement and perform a conservative colour–space selection and weighting of background galaxies. Using the combination of shape noise and an analytic covariance for intrinsic variations of cluster profiles at fixed mass due to large-scale structure, miscentring, and variations in concentration and ellipticity, we determine the likelihood of the observed shear signal as a function of true mass for each cluster. We combine 25 individual cluster mass likelihoods in a Bayesian hierarchical scheme with the inclusion of optical and X-ray selection functions to derive constraints on the slope α, normalization β, and scatter σln λ|μ of our richness–mass scaling relation model in log-space: ${\langle {\rm In}\,\, \lambda\!\!\mid\!\!\mu\rangle = \alpha\mu + \beta,} $ with μ = ln (M 200c /M piv ), and M piv = 10 14.81 M ⊙ . We find a slope $\alpha = 0.49^{+0.20}_{-0.15}$, normalization $\exp (\beta) = 84.0^{+9.2}_{-14.8}$, and $\sigma _{\ln \lambda | \mu } = 0.17^{+0.13}_{-0.09}$ using CFHT richness estimates. In comparison to other weak lensing richness–mass relations, we find the normalization of the richness statistically agreeing with the normalization of other scaling relations from a broad redshift range (0.0 < z < 0.65) and with different cluster selection (X-ray, Sunyaev–Zeldovich, and optical).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Error Distribution of BATSE GRB Location

We develop empirical probability models for BATSE GRB location errors by a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the InterPlanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 394 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 20 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4B (rev) BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the locations in a 'core' term with a systematic error of 1.85 degrees and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.36 degrees, implying a 68% confidence region for bursts with negligible statistical errors of 2.3 degrees. There is some evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE datatype that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT datatype, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence region for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical errors is 2.0 degrees.

Briggs, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Error Distribution of BATSE Gamma-Ray Burst Locations

Empirical probability models for BATSE gamma-ray burst (GRB) location errors are developed via a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the Interplanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 392 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 19 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4Br BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the probability in a "core" term with a systematic error of 1.85 deg and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.1 deg, which implies a 68% confidence radius for bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties of 2.2 deg. There is evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE data type that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT data type, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence radius for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties is 2.0 deg.

Briggs, Michael S.↗
DOE OSTI2013

NGC 6811: AN INTERMEDIATE-AGE CLUSTER IN THE KEPLER FIELD

NGC 6811 is one of the four open clusters located in the Kepler spacecraft field of view. We obtained UBVRI photometry of the cluster on six nights (four of them photometric) with the 1.08 m Hall and 1.83 m Perkins telescopes at Lowell Observatory. The mean photometric precision ranges from better than 0.01 mag in the V, B - V, V - R, and V - I indices among stars brighter than magnitude 15 to about 0.05 mag for U - B at magnitude 18. We followed a Bayesian statistical approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to determine the cluster reddening, distance, age, and iron content from a maximum-likelihood fit to stellar isochrones. Using the Yale-Yonsei isochrones, we derived E(B - V) 0.066 {+-} 0.025, (m - M){sub V} = 10.13 {+-} 0.19, age = 1.06 {+-} 0.19 Gyr, and Z = 0.012 {+-} 0.004 ([Fe/H] = -0.18); with the Padova isochrones, we found E(B - V) = 0.081 {+-} 0.015, (m - M){sub V} = 10.31 {+-} 0.11, age = 0.94 {+-} 0.08 Gyr, and Z = 0.012 {+-} 0.002 ([Fe/H] = -0.20). The uncertainties include possible errors in the photometric zero points of {+-}0.01 mag, but do not include uncertainties in the models. Taking into account the differences between the two sets of models, we find the best estimate for the cluster parameters to be E(B - V) = 0.074 {+-} 0.024, (m - M){sub V} = 10.22 {+-} 0.18, age = 1.00 {+-} 0.17 Gyr, and Z = 0.012 {+-} 0.004 ([Fe/H] = -0.19).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Continuous Habitable Zones: Pairing a GCM and Bayesian Framework to Predict Habitable Zone Evolution

In the near-future, new space telescopes like JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx will begin attempting to explore the properties of atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. This will require a significant amount of time and resources for even a single planet, which makes it essential to prioritize observations by those most-likely to have detectable life. Here we present a statistical method to estimate the probabilities that specific exoplanets have been continuously in the habitable zone of their host stars for more than 2 billion years, the approximate time it took life on Earth to significantly increase the oxygen content of the atmosphere. We introduce the use of statistics of an ensemble of 3D planetary general circulation models to estimate these probabilities, replacing prior 1D model estimates.

habitable planets↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pairing a GCM and Bayesian Framework to Predict Habitable Zone Evolution

In the near-future, new space telescopes like JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx will begin attempting to explore the properties of atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. This will require a significant amount of time and resources for even a single planet, which makes it essential to prioritize observations by those most-likely to have detectable life. Here we present a statistical method to estimate the probabilities that specific exoplanets have been continuously in the habitable zone of their host stars for more than 2 billion years, the approximate time it took life on Earth to significantly increase the oxygen content of the atmosphere. We introduce the use of statistics of an ensemble of 3D planetary general circulation models to estimate these probabilities, replacing prior 1D model estimates.

habitable planets↗
DOE OSTI2013

A BAYESIAN METHOD FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE DUST EMISSION IN THE FAR-INFRARED AND SUBMILLIMETER

We present a method, based on Bayesian statistics, to fit the dust emission parameters in the far-infrared and submillimeter wavelengths. The method estimates the dust temperature and spectral emissivity index, plus their relationship, properly taking into account the statistical and systematic uncertainties. We test it on three sets of simulated sources detectable by the Herschel Space Observatory in the PACS and SPIRE spectral bands (70-500 {mu}m), spanning over a wide range of dust temperatures. The simulated observations are a one-component interstellar medium and two two-component sources, both warm (H II regions) and cold (cold clumps (CCs)). We first define a procedure to identify the better model, then we recover the parameters of the model and measure their physical correlations by means of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm adopting multi-variate Gaussian priors. In this process, we assess the reliability of the model recovery and of parameter estimation. We conclude that the model and parameters are properly recovered only under certain circumstances and that false models may be derived in some cases. We applied the method to a set of 91 starless CCs in an interarm region of the Galactic plane with low star formation activity, observed by Herschel in the Hi-GAL survey. Our results are consistent with a temperature-independent spectral index.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Density split statistics: Cosmological constraints from counts and lensing in cells in DES Y1 and SDSS data

Here, we derive cosmological constraints from the probability distribution function (PDF) of evolved large-scale matter density fluctuations. We do this by splitting lines of sight by density based on their count of tracer galaxies, and by measuring both gravitational shear around and counts-in-cells in overdense and underdense lines of sight, in Dark Energy Survey (DES) First Year and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data. Our analysis uses a perturbation theory model and is validated using N-body simulation realizations and log-normal mocks. It allows us to constrain cosmology, bias and stochasticity of galaxies with respect to matter density and, in addition, the skewness of the matter density field. From a Bayesian model comparison, we find that the data weakly prefer a connection of galaxies and matter that is stochastic beyond Poisson fluctuations on ≤ 20 arcmin angular smoothing scale. The two stochasticity models we fit yield DES constraints on the matter density Ω m = 0.26 +0.04 –0.03 and Ω m = 0.28 +0.05 –0.04 that are consistent with each other. These values also agree with the DES analysis of galaxy and shear two-point functions (3x2pt, DES Collaboration et al.) that only uses second moments of the PDF. Constraints on σ8 are model dependent (σ 8 = 0.97 +0.07 –0.06 and 0.80 +0.06 –0.07 for the two stochasticity models), but consistent with each other and with the 3 x 2pt results if stochasticity is at the low end of the posterior range. As an additional test of gravity, counts and lensing in cells allow to compare the skewness S 3 of the matter density PDF to its ΛCDM prediction. We find no evidence of excess skewness in any model or data set, with better than 25 per cent relative precision in the skewness estimate from DES alone.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: cosmological biases from supernova photometric classification

ABSTRACT Cosmological analyses of samples of photometrically identified type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) depend on understanding the effects of ‘contamination’ from core-collapse and peculiar SN Ia events. We employ a rigorous analysis using the photometric classifier SuperNNova on state-of-the-art simulations of SN samples to determine cosmological biases due to such ‘non-Ia’ contamination in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-yr SN sample. Depending on the non-Ia SN models used in the SuperNNova training and testing samples, contamination ranges from 0.8 to 3.5 per cent, with a classification efficiency of 97.7–99.5 per cent. Using the Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) framework and its extension BBC (‘BEAMS with Bias Correction’), we produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram marginalized over contamination and corrected for selection effects, and use it to constrain the dark energy equation-of-state, w. Assuming a flat universe with Gaussian ΩM prior of 0.311 ± 0.010, we show that biases on w are <0.008 when using SuperNNova, with systematic uncertainties associated with contamination around 10 per cent of the statistical uncertainty on w for the DES-SN sample. An alternative approach of discarding contaminants using outlier rejection techniques (e.g. Chauvenet’s criterion) in place of SuperNNova leads to biases on w that are larger but still modest (0.015–0.03). Finally, we measure biases due to contamination on w0 and wa (assuming a flat universe), and find these to be <0.009 in w0 and <0.108 in wa, 5 to 10 times smaller than the statistical uncertainties for the DES-SN sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗