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At least 595 records · Page 33

Pitch Carbon-coated Ultrasmall Si Nanoparticle Lithium-ion Battery Anodes Exhibiting Reduced Reactivity with Carbonate-based Electrolyte

Silicon anodes for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) have the potential for higher energy density compared to conventionally used graphite-based LIB anodes. However, silicon anodes exhibit poor cycle and calendar lifetimes due to mechanical instabilities and high chemical and electrochemical reactivity with the carbonate-based electrolytes that are typically used in LIBs. In this work, we synthesize a pitch carbon-coated silicon nanoparticle composite active material for LIB anodes that exhibits reduced chemical reactivity with carbonate-based electrolytes compared to an uncoated silicon anode. Silicon primary particle sizes less than 10 nm diameter minimize micro-scale mechanical degradation of the anode composite, while conformal coatings of pitch carbon minimize the parasitic reactions between the silicon and the electrolyte. When matched with a high voltage NMC622 (LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 ) cathode, the pitch carbon-coated silicon anode retains approximately 75% of its initial capacity at the end of 1000 cycles. Increasing the areal loading of the pitch carbon-coated silicon anodes to realize energy density improvements over graphite anodes results in severe mechanical degradation on the electrode level, highlighting a remaining challenge to be addressed in future work.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Radiation risk of incident colorectal cancer by anatomical site among atomic bomb survivors: 1958–2009

Radiation effects on colorectal cancer rates, adjusted for smoking, alcohol intake and frequency of meat consumption and body mass index (BMI) by anatomical subsite (proximal colon, distal colon and rectum) were examined in a cohort of 105,444 atomic bomb survivors. Poisson regression methods were used to describe radiation‐associated excess relative risks (ERR) and excess absolute rates (EAR) for the 1958–2009 period. There were 2,960 first primary colorectal cancers including 894 proximal, 871 distal and 1,046 rectal cancers. Smoking, alcohol intake and BMI were associated with subsite‐specific cancer background rates. Significant linear dose–responses were found for total colon (sex‐averaged ERR/Gy for 70 years old exposed at age 30 = 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34; 0.98), proximal [ERR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.32; 1.44] and distal colon cancers [ERR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.04; 0.97], but not for rectal cancer [ERR = 0.023, 95% CI: −0.081; 0.13]. The ERRs for proximal and distal colon cancers were not significantly different ( p = 0.41). The ERR decreased with attained age for total colon, but not for proximal colon cancer, and with calendar year for distal colon cancer. The ERRs and EARs did not vary by age at exposure, except for decreasing trend in EAR for proximal colon cancer. In conclusion, ionizing radiation is associated with increased risk of proximal and distal colon cancers. The ERR for proximal cancer persists over time, but that for distal colon cancer decreases. There continues to be no indication of radiation effects on rectal cancer incidence in this population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Global analysis of night marine air temperature and its uncertainty since 1880

An updated version of the Met Office Hadley Centre's monthly night marine air temperature data set is presented. It is available on a 5° latitude-longitude grid from 1880 as anomalies relative to 1961–1990 calendar-monthly climatological average night marine air temperature (NMAT). Adjustments are made for changes in observation height; these depend on estimates of the stability of the near surface atmospheric boundary layer. In previous versions of the data set, ad hoc adjustments were also made for three periods and regions where poor observational practice was prevalent. These adjustments are re-examined. Estimates of uncertainty are calculated for every grid box and result from measurement errors, uncertainty in adjustments applied to the observations, uncertainty in the measurement height, and under-sampling. The new data set is a clear improvement over previous versions in terms of coverage because of the recent digitization of historical observations from ships' logbooks. However, the periods prior to about 1890 and around World War II remain particularly uncertain, and sampling is still sparse in some regions in other periods. A further improvement is the availability of uncertainty estimates for every grid box and every month. Previous versions required adjustments that were dependent on contemporary measurements of sea surface temperature (SST); to avoid these, the new data set starts in 1880 rather than 1856. Overall agreement with variations of SST is better for the updated data set than for previous versions, supporting existing estimates of global warming and increasing confidence in the global record of temperature variability and change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overall and cause‐specific mortality in the Sentinel system: A power analysis

Abstract Purpose Mortality data within the Sentinel Death Tables remain generally uncharacterized. Assessment of mortality data within Sentinel will help inform its utility for medical product safety studies. Methods To determine if Sentinel contains sufficient all‐cause and cause‐specific mortality events to power postmarketing safety studies. We calculated crude rates of all‐cause mortality and suicide and proportional mortality from suicide from 2004 to 2012 in seven Sentinel data partners. Results were stratified by data partner, sex, age group, and calendar year and compared with national estimates from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide‐ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research. We performed sample size estimations for all‐cause mortality and 10 leading causes of death. Results We observed 479 694 deaths, including 5811 suicides, during 68 million person‐years of follow‐up. Pooled mean death and suicide rates in the data partners were 710 and 8.6 per 100 000 person‐years, respectively (vs 810 and 11.8 nationally). The mean proportional mortality from suicide among the data partners was 1.2%, compared with 1.5% nationally. National trends of decreasing overall mortality and increasing proportional mortality for suicide were reflected within Sentinel. We estimated that detecting hazard ratios of 1.25 and 3 would require 16 442 and 460 exposed patients, respectively, for overall mortality, and 1.3 million and 37 411, respectively, for suicide. Conclusions This was the first study to investigate mortality data in the Sentinel death tables. We found that all‐cause mortality appeared well powered for use as a safety outcome and cause‐specific mortality outcomes may be adequately powered in certain circumstances. Further investigation into the quality of the Sentinel death data is needed.

Swain, Richard S.↗

RCSB Protein Data Bank: Celebrating 50 years of the PDB with new tools for understanding and visualizing biological macromolecules in 3D

We report the Research Collaboratory for Structural Bioinformatics Protein Data Bank (RCSB PDB), funded by the US National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Energy, has served structural biologists and Protein Data Bank (PDB) data consumers worldwide since 1999. RCSB PDB, a founding member of the Worldwide Protein Data Bank (wwPDB) partnership, is the US data center for the global PDB archive housing biomolecular structure data. RCSB PDB is also responsible for the security of PDB data, as the wwPDB-designated Archive Keeper. Annually, RCSB PDB serves tens of thousands of three-dimensional (3D) macromolecular structure data depositors (using macromolecular crystallography, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, electron microscopy, and micro-electron diffraction) from all inhabited continents. RCSB PDB makes PDB data available from its research-focused RCSB.org web portal at no charge and without usage restrictions to millions of PDB data consumers working in every nation and territory worldwide. In addition, RCSB PDB operates an outreach and education PDB101.RCSB.org web portal that was used by more than 800,000 educators, students, and members of the public during calendar year 2020. This invited Tools Issue contribution describes (i) how the archive is growing and evolving as new experimental methods generate ever larger and more complex biomolecular structures; (ii) the importance of data standards and data remediation in effective management of the archive and facile integration with more than 50 external data resources; and (iii) new tools and features for 3D structure analysis and visualization made available during the past year via the RCSB.org web portal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the large-scale drivers of precipitation in the northeastern United States via linear orthogonal decomposition

This study examines the linear orthogonal modes associated with monthly precipitation in the northeastern United States, from CESM1 LENS (35 ensemble members, 1979–2005) and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5, 1950–2018 and NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20CRv3, 1950–2015). Calendar months are aggregated together, and any linear trends in data are removed. Using region-averaged precipitation anomaly time series and monthly anomalies for several global 2D atmospheric fields, a linear orthogonal decomposition method is implemented to iteratively extract time series (based on field and geographic location) of absolute maximum correlation. Linear modes associated with this method are then projected onto the full set of 2D fields to provide physical insight into the mechanisms involved in generating precipitation. In this region, the first mode is associated with vapor transport from the Atlantic seaboard, the second mode is characterized by westward vapor transport associated with extratropical cyclones, and the third mode captures vapor transport from the Gulf of Mexico during the fall and winter. However, the third mode is less robust in the spring and summer. Results are generally consistent across the datasets, and applying multiple linear regression with the linear modes to predict the precipitation anomalies produces R-squared values of around 0.54–0.65 for CESM1 LENS, and around 0.58–0.88 for reanalysis, with the lowest values generally in the spring and late summer. The influence of low-frequency climate variability on the modes is considered for CESM1 LENS, and the modes in late winter can be predicted with some success via a combination of several, prominent large-scale teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Controlled High Filler Loading of Functionalized Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-Filled Epoxy Composites for LED Thermal Management

Thermal management in light-emitting diode (LED) has been extensively researched recently. This study is intended to develop an effective thermally conductive epoxy composite as thermal interface material (TIM) for headlamp LEDs. Silane-functionalized aluminum oxide (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) powder of different average particle sizes (44 and 10 µm) was studied for its feasibility as filler at its maximum loading. A detailed comparison of three different methods of particle dispersions, hand-mix, speed-mix and calendaring process (3-roll mill), has been reported. The dispersion of Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} particles, the thermal conductivity and thermal degradation characteristics of the composites were investigated and explained in detail. At 75 wt.% filler loading, 10 and 44 µm Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} achieved composite thermal conductivities of 1.13 and 2.08 W/mK, respectively, which is approximately 528 and 1055% of enhancement with respect to neat epoxy. The package-level thermal performance of the LED employing the Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-filled TIMs was carried out using thermal transient analysis. The experimental junction-to-ambient thermal resistances (R{sub thJ-A}) achieved were 6.65, 7.24, and 8.63 K/W for Al{sub 2}O{sub 3-44µm}, Al{sub 2}O{sub 3-10µm} and neat epoxy, respectively. The results revealed that the Al{sub 2}O{sub 3-44µm} fillers-filled composite performed better in both material-level and package-level thermal characteristics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Surveillance of Aedes aegypti indoors and outdoors using Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps in South Texas during local transmission of Zika virus, 2016 to 2018

The yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti, has facilitated the re-emergence of dengue virus (DENV) and emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas and the Caribbean. The recent transmission of these arboviruses in the continental United States has been limited, to date, to South Florida and South Texas despite Ae. aegypti occurring over a much larger geographical region within the country. The main goal of our study was to provide the first long term longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti and enhance the knowledge about the indoor and outdoor relative abundance of Ae. aegypti as a proxy for mosquito-human contact in South Texas, a region of the United States that is at high risk for mosquito-borne virus transmission. Here, the relative abundance of indoors and outdoors mosquitoes of households in eight different communities was described. Surveillance was done weekly from September 2016 to April 2018 using the CDC Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps in low- and middle-income communities. A total of 69 houses were included in this survey among which 36 were in the low-income communities (n = 11 for Donna, n = 15 for Progresso, n = 5 for Mesquite, n = 5 for Chapa) and 33 in middle-income communities (n = 9 for La Feria, n = 8 for Weslaco, n = 11 for McAllen, and n = 5 for Rio Rico). Overall, Ae. aegypti was the dominant species (59.2% of collections, n = 7255) followed by Culex spp. mosquitoes (27.3% of collections, n = 3350). Furthermore, we demonstrated for Ae. aegypti that 1) outdoor relative abundance was higher compared to indoor relative abundance, 2) low-income communities were associated with an increase in mosquito relative abundance indoors when compared to middle-income communities, 3) no difference was observed in the number of mosquitoes collected outdoors between low-income and middle-income communities, and 4) warmer months were positively correlated with outdoor relative abundance whereas no seasonality was observed in the relative abundance of mosquitoes indoors. Additionally, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes collected in South Texas were tested using a specific ZIKV/CHIKV multiplex real-time PCR assay, however, none of the mosquitoes tested positive. Our data highlights the occurrence of mosquitoes indoors in the continental United States and that adults are collected nearly every week of the calendar year. These mosquito data, obtained concurrently with local ZIKV transmission of 10 locally acquired cases in nearby communities, represent a baseline for future studies in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) including vector control interventions relying on the oviposition behavior to reduce mosquito populations and pathogen transmission.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The MIGDAL experiment: Measuring a rare atomic process to aid the search for dark matter

We present the Migdal In Galactic Dark mAtter expLoration (MIGDAL) experiment aiming at the unambiguous observation and study of the so-called Migdal effect induced by fast-neutron scattering. It is hoped that this elusive atomic process can be exploited to enhance the reach of direct dark matter search experiments to lower masses, but it is still lacking experimental confirmation. Our goal is to detect the predicted atomic electron emission which is thought to accompany nuclear scattering with low, but calculable, probability, by deploying an Optical Time Projection Chamber filled with a low-pressure gas based on CF 4 . Initially, pure CF 4 will be used, and then in mixtures containing other elements employed by leading dark matter search technologies — including noble species, plus Si and Ge. High resolution track images generated by a Gas Electron Multiplier stack, together with timing information from scintillation and ionisation readout, will be used for 3D reconstruction of the characteristic event topology expected for this process — an arrangement of two tracks sharing a common vertex, with one belonging to a Migdal electron and the other to a nuclear recoil. Different energy-loss rate distributions along both tracks will be used as a powerful discrimination tool against background events. In this article we present the design of the experiment, informed by extensive particle and track simulations and detailed estimations of signal and background rates. In pure CF 4 we expect to observe 8.9 (29.3) Migdal events per calendar day of exposure to an intense D–D (D–T) neutron generator beam at the NILE facility located at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (UK). With our nominal assumptions, 5σ median discovery significance can be achieved in under one day with either generator.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Indexing habitat opportunity for juvenile anadromous fishes in tidal-fluvial wetland systems

In intertidal wetlands, annual habitat use by migrating juvenile salmon is limited by both physical and biological constraints. Physical limits are set by inundation patterns and water quality parameters, while biological bounds are determined by species specific migration timing and seasonal residency behaviors. We developed a new metric called the fish habitat opportunity index (FHOI) to quantify the total time per calendar year that salmon could access intertidal sites, based on periods of inundation and juvenile salmon seasonal migration. The index was applied using data collected at a recently reconnected tidal freshwater wetland area during 2006-2009. We found the wetland to be accessible to different salmon species for different lengths of time and periods of the year. On average, chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) had remarkably consistent opportunities to use marsh habitat over the 4 years sampled, while opportunities were more variable for Chinook (O. tshawytscha), and coho salmon (O. kisutch). Inundation varied nonlinearly with tidal height, and fish had access to the productive marsh edge for approximately 40-50% of the time during periods of access. The FHOI is widely applicable to wetland systems throughout the tidal fluvial continuum, and provides a metric for assessing fish habitat opportunity that is more realistic than simple wetted area calculations. Finally, the FHOI affords a method of a priori comparison among potential restoration sites to help resource managers predict the likely relative benefit to juvenile salmon.

wetland restoration, estuary, habitat opportunity,↗

A calibration procedure to improve global rice yield simulations with EPIC

Crop models are increasingly used to assess impacts of climate change/variability and management practices on productivity and environmental performance of alternative cropping systems. Calibration is an important procedure to improve reliability of model simulations, especially for large area applications. However, global-scale crop model calibration has rarely been exercised due to limited data availability and expensive computing cost. Here we present a simple approach to calibrate Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model for a global implementation of rice. We identify four parameters (potential heat unit – PHU, planting density – PD, harvest index – HI, and biomass energy ratio – BER) and calibrate them regionally to capture the spatial pattern of reported rice yield in 2000. Model performance is assessed by comparing simulated outputs with independent FAO national data. The comparison demonstrates that the global calibration scheme performs satisfactorily in reproducing the spatial pattern of rice yield, particularly in main rice production areas. Spatial agreement increases substantially when more parameters are selected and calibrated, but with varying efficiencies. Among the parameters, PHU and HI exhibit the highest efficiencies in increasing the spatial agreement. Simulations with different calibration strategies generate a pronounced discrepancy of 5–35% in mean yields across latitude bands, and a small to moderate difference in estimated yield variability and yield changing trend for the period of 1981–2000. Present calibration has little effects in improving simulated yield variability and trends at both regional and global levels, suggesting further works are needed to reproduce temporal variability of reported yields. This study highlights the importance of crop models’ calibration, and presents the possibility of a transparent and consistent up scaling approach for global crop simulations given current availability of global databases of weather, soil, crop calendar, fertilizer and irrigation management information, and reported yield.

Crop model↗

Application of electron backscatter diffraction techniques to quantify effects of aging on sub-grain and spatial heterogeneity in NMC cathodes

Identification and evaluation of structural heterogeneity in spent cathode materials is crucial to developing appropriate remediation strategies for novel recycling processes. Native heterogeneities may be exacerbated during the cell's operational lifetime, as sub-particle-scale variations induce anisotropic expansion and contraction upon cycling. Structural transformations resulting from repeated cycling and calendar aging predominantly occur at the secondary particle surface and at the grain boundaries (GBs) between primary particles. However, the diffusion and stress build up around and across GBs are poorly understood. In this study, electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) is employed to track sub-grain lattice structure across a statistically relevant number of Li(Ni0.33Mn0.33Co0.33)O2 (NMC-111) particles. Specifically, differences in lattice misorientation – measured as the deviation from the grain's average orientation – are tracked as a function of position within the electrode (near current collector, middle, and near separator) and as a function of electrochemical cycling. Further, a novel method of structural analysis is developed, offering insight into sub-grain diffusion behavior by comparing lattice misorientation near the grain boundary versus in the grain bulk. The present results suggest that electrode-scale spatial heterogeneity in lattice structure is induced by initial manufacturing conditions, and that radial gradients in lattice misorientation evolve at the primary particle scale with repeated electrochemical cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A new mechanism of stabilizing SEI of Si anode driven by crosstalk behavior and its potential for developing high performance Si-based batteries

Stabilizing solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) is a key factor for determining cell performance of Silicon (Si) anode, such as safety, cycle lifetime, and calendar lifetime. Here, we found a new potential for stabilizing SEI of the Si anode, driven by crosstalk with cathode material. Here we investigated the effect of crosstalk on the chemistry of SEI of the Si anode as a function of three different, representative cathode materials: LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC532), LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (NMC811), and LiFePO 4 (LFP). Specifically, we observed that crosstalk significantly affected the formation and growth mechanism of SEI layer on the Si anodes. Unexpectedly, dissolved Fe ions from the LFP cathode has a positive impact on the chemistry and electrochemical stability of the SEI layer of Si anode compared to the other cathodes, resulting in better electrochemical performance in terms of initial coulombic efficiency and capacity fade.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Household mold and dust allergens: Exposure, sensitization and childhood asthma morbidity

Background: Few studies address concurrent exposures to common household allergens, specific allergen sensitization and childhood asthma morbidity. Objective: To identify levels of allergen exposures that trigger asthma exacerbations in sensitized individuals. Methods: We sampled homes for common indoor allergens (fungi, dust mites (Der p 1, Der f 1), cat (Fel d 1), dog (Can f 1) and cockroach (Bla g 1)) for levels associated with respiratory responses among school-aged children with asthma (N=1233) in a month-long study. Blood samples for allergy testing and samples of airborne fungi and settled dust were collected at enrollment. Symptoms and medication use were recorded on calendars. Combined effects of specific allergen sensitization and level of exposure on wheeze, persistent cough, rescue medication use and a 5-level asthma severity score were examined using ordered logistic regression. Results: Children sensitized and exposed to any Penicillium experienced increased risk of wheeze (odds ratio [OR] 2.12 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12, 4.04), persistent cough (OR 2.01 95% CI 1.05, 3.85) and higher asthma severity score (OR 1.99 95% CI 1.06, 3.72) compared to those not sensitized or sensitized but unexposed. Children sensitized and exposed to pet allergen were at significantly increased risk of wheeze (by 39% and 53% for Fel d 1>0.12 {mu}g/g and Can f 1>1.2 {mu}g/g, respectively). Increased rescue medication use was significantly associated with sensitization and exposure to Der p 1>0.10 {mu}g/g (by 47%) and Fel d 1>0.12 {mu}g/g (by 32%). Conclusion: Asthmatic children sensitized and exposed to low levels of common household allergens Penicillium, Der p 1, Fel d 1 and Can f 1 are at significant risk for increased morbidity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Few studies address concurrent allergen exposures, sensitization and asthma morbidity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Children with asthma were tested for sensitivity to common indoor allergens. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Homes were sampled for these allergens and asthma morbidity monitored during the subsequent month. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Children exposed and sensitized to Penicillium, Der p, Fel d, Can f risk increased asthma morbidity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer These children might benefit from targeted intervention strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Non-thyroid cancer incidence in Belarusian residents exposed to Chernobyl fallout in childhood and adolescence: Standardized Incidence Ratio analysis, 1997–2011

Background: While an increased risk of thyroid cancer from post-Chernobyl exposure to Iodine-131 (I-131) in children and adolescents has been well-documented, risks of other cancers or leukemia as a result of residence in radioactively contaminated areas remain uncertain. Methods: We studied non-thyroid cancer incidence in a cohort of about 12,000 individuals from Belarus exposed under age of 18 years to Chernobyl fallout (median age at the time of Chernobyl accident of 7.9 years). During 15 years of follow-up from1997 through 2011, 54 incident cancers excluding thyroid were identified in the study cohort with 142,968 person-years at risk. We performed Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) analysis of all solid cancers excluding thyroid (n=42), of leukemia (n=6) and of lymphoma (n=6). Results: We found no significant increase in the incidence of non-thyroid solid cancer (SIR=0.83, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.61; 1.11), lymphoma (SIR=0.66, 95% CI: 0.26; 1.33) or leukemia (SIR=1.78, 95% CI: 0.71; 3.61) in the study cohort as compared with the sex-, age- and calendar-time-specific national rates. These findings may in part reflect the relatively young age of study subjects (median attained age of 33.4 years), and long latency for some radiation-related solid cancers. Conclusions: We found no evidence of statistically significant increases in solid cancer, lymphoma and leukemia incidence 25 years after childhood exposure in the study cohort; however, it is important to continue follow-up non-thyroid cancers in individuals exposed to low-level radiation at radiosensitive ages. - Highlights: • We monitor cancers in a Belarusian cohort of exposed as children due to Chernobyl. • No increase in solid cancer rates was found as compared to the national rates. • An elevation of leukemia rates was detected, although statistically insignificant. • Results are consistent with those in a cohort of exposed as children in Ukraine. • Further monitoring of cancer situation in this cohort is warranted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Local pollutants go global: The impacts of intercontinental air pollution from China on air quality and morbidity in California

Highlights: • Heavy sandstorms are a major pollution source in China. • Trans-Pacific air pollution from sandstorms in China affect health in California. • Policymakers could plan for worsened air quality in California following sandstorms. China is among the greatest emitters of air pollution in the world and one concern is the effects of intercontinental air pollution traveling across the Pacific Ocean from China to the U.S. We exploit a natural experiment by observing the effects of changes in intercontinental air pollution associated with Chinese New Year, a 7-day national holiday, and sandstorms from China on air quality and morbidity in California. The timing of these events are unlikely correlated to other factors affecting air quality and health in California. Chinese New Year follows the Lunar New Year which varies each traditional calendar year while sandstorms are a naturally occurring phenomenon. We examine effects on morbidity using restricted emergency department and inpatient hospitalization data for the universe of patients with respiratory and heart disease between 2005 and 2012 in California. This is the first study to use patient-level data to examine the effects of trans-Pacific air pollution from China on morbidity in the U.S. We show that heavy sandstorms are associated with a modest increase in acute respiratory disease per capita, representing 0.5–4.6% of average weekly hospitalizations. However, we find no significant effect on morbidity in California from Chinese New Year. Results suggest that policymakers could prepare for changes in air quality following major sandstorms in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Daily operational impacts on battery degradation in heavy-duty electric drayage trucks

Battery aging is a critical factor influencing the performance, longevity, and cost of ownership of battery electric trucks (BETs). This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of battery aging for two Li-ion battery chemistries, Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (NMC) and Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LFP), accounting for both cycling and calendar aging. In contrast to traditional methods that rely on simplified linear degradation models based on manufacturer-provided data, this study employs semi-empirical aging models calibrated to experimentally collected data. The models are integrated into a detailed vehicle simulation environment, enabling a comprehensive assessment of battery degradation under realistic operating conditions. A case study focusing on heavy-duty electric drayage truck operations in the Port of Savannah, GA, is presented to illustrate the impact on battery pack lifespan of: seasonal variations, daily operational activities, charging strategies, and battery storage conditions. The results illuminate the significance of the battery pack’s state of charge during stationary periods, such as overnight storage or weekend parking, on battery degradation and its potential implications for long-term vehicle viability. Additionally, the study explores how different operational and environmental factors affect battery degradation, offering critical insights into best battery charging and storage practices. Our results demonstrate that LFP outperforms NMC in terms of years of useful life; however, by utilizing charging strategies that minimize the amount of time the battery spends resting at high levels of state-of-charge, the lifespan of the battery pack that uses NMC can nonetheless be increased by more than a factor of two.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗