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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33

Validation of (not-historical) large-event near-fault ground-motion simulations for use in civil engineering applications

Ground-motion simulations generated from physics-based wave propagation models are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform the performance-based design and assessment of infrastructure residing in active seismic areas. A key prerequisite before the ground-motion simulations can be used with confidence for application in engineering domains is their comprehensive and rigorous investigation and validation. This article provides a four-step methodology and acceptance criteria to assess the reliability of simulated ground motions of not historical events, which includes (1) the selection of a population of real records consistent with the simulated scenarios, (2) the comparison of the distribution of Intensity Measures (IMs) from the simulated records, real records, and Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), (3) the comparison of the distribution of simple proxies for building response, and (4) the comparison of the distribution of Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) for a realistic model of a structure. Specific focus is laid on near-field ground motions (<10km) from large earthquakes (M w 7), for which the database of real records for potential use in engineering applications is severely limited. The methodology is demonstrated through comparison of (2490) near-field synthetic records with 5 Hz resolution generated from the Pitarka et al (2019) kinematic rupture model with a population of (38) pulse-like near-field real records from multiple events and, when applicable, with NGA-W2 GMPEs. Lastly, the proposed procedure provides an effective method for informing and advancing the science needed to generate realistic ground-motion simulations, and for building confidence in their use in engineering domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Engineering evaluation of the EQSIM simulated ground-motion database: The San Francisco Bay Area region

Ground-motion simulations for infrequent earthquake scenarios are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform performance-based structural design and assessment, particularly in regions where major earthquakes are expected, but recordings from consistent historical events are not available. However, the absence of empirical data makes the evaluation of such scenarios and the interpretation of the simulation results very challenging. In this context, this paper presents the evaluation of the first EQSIM (v.1.1.0) ground-motion simulations generated for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) region. The current database, which is at the first stages of development, includes eight realizations of a Hayward Fault M w 7 event. The evaluation of the simulated motions is first conducted on the average ground-motion amplitudes through comparison against the NGA-W2 GMPEs and a selected population of real records. A methodology for selecting a population of real records consistent with the simulated event is proposed. The objective of the proposed evaluation is twofold: (1) build confidence in the realistic character of the simulated motions for their use in engineering applications and (2) offer a critical physics-based interpretation of the simulation results that can help improve key features of the simulation models. To further investigate the implications of using the simulated ground motions for site-specific structural assessments, the ASCE7-16 approach is employed for the analysis of two hazard-consistent near-field sites in the SFBA. Results are discussed. Furthermore, this study offers a critical review of the EQSIM (v.1.1.0) SFBA ground-motion simulations and suggestions for improving the earthquake rupture models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Informing electrification strategies of residential neighborhoods with urban building energy modeling

Electrifying end uses is a key strategy to reducing GHG emissions in buildings. However, it may increase peak electricity demand that triggers the need to upgrade the existing power distribution system, leading to delays in electrification and needs of significant investment. There is also concern that building electrification may cause an increase of energy costs, leading to further energy burden for low-income communities. This study uses the urban scale building modeling tool CityBES to assess the electrification impacts of more than 43,000 residential buildings in a neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, USA. Energy efficiency upgrades were investigated on their potential to mitigate the increase of peak electricity demand and energy burden. Simulation results from the calibrated EnergyPlus models show that electrification with heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as for domestic water heating can reduce CO2e emissions by 38%, but increase peak electricity demand by about 9% from the baseline building stock. Combining electrification measures and energy efficiency upgrades can reduce CO2e emissions by 48% while reducing peak electricity demand by 6% and saving the median household energy costs by 28%. City and utility decision makers should consider integrating energy efficiency upgrades with electrification measures as an effective residential building electrification strategy, which significantly reduces carbon emissions, caps or even decreases peak demand while reducing energy burden of residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble

Abstract The Arctic is especially vulnerable to climate change and is warming faster than the global average. Changes in this region pose a heightened threat due to the immense amount of carbon frozen as organic material in the soil. When permafrost thaws, organic material decays and releases as greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to further warming. A better understanding of the processes that influence permafrost degradation is needed to inform climate adaptation and mitigation planning. This study assesses changes to Arctic permafrost across 35 ensemble member simulations from the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble Project, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 21st century scenario. Most Arctic near‐surface permafrost is lost by 2100, but timing varies across regions and with soil depth. Internal climate variability, represented by differences between ensemble members, has a constrained influence on degradation timing due to relative consistency of summer temperature increases and insulation by winter snow cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Long-Term Service Coal Combustion Power Plant Extreme Environment Materials

The objective of this DOE-sponsored project was to develop a comprehensive database of mechanical properties, alloy microstructures, and to a lesser extent, the oxidation/corrosion behaviors of coal-fired power plant components, such as boiler tubing, steam headers, and steam piping, which had been in service for at least 100,000 operating hours (preferably more than 200,000 operating hours) under the operating conditions of high temperatures and high mechanical stresses where creep, fatigue, steam-side oxidation, and fireside corrosion were life-limiting factors. The components included in this database consisted of ferritic steels, creep strength enhanced ferritic (CSEF) steels, and 300-series H-grade stainless steels, as well as dissimilar metal welds (DMWs) among these types of materials. As a result of extensive metallurgical characterization and mechanical testing performed in this project, a comprehensive database on mechanical properties and detailed quantitative microstructural information was successfully developed for several long-term serviced EEM components. Such a database can be used by material research communities to develop, calibrate, refine, and validate mechanical behaviors, models, and other assessment tools for accurate prediction of remaining life of major components under similar EEM operating conditions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Integration and Quantitative Comparison of Up-Scaled Molecular Observation Network Data with Existing Soil Databases

MONet provides novel soil molecular data to the research community for understanding biogeochemical processes and complementing other soil datasets. This study assesses MONet's ability to replicate known soil patterns via a comparative analysis of soil respiration (Rs), pH, and clay content against benchmark datasets. Results show moderate agreement for pH and clay content, highlighting MONet's strengths in capturing soil biogeochemical variation in underrepresented regions like urban areas. Rs data are marked by the appropriate trends relative to other datasets, but direct comparison is impractical due to methodological differences in underlying data. Strategic sampling is recommended to improve MONet's coverage and eventual utility in bridging molecular observations with global datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Social cost considerations and legal constraints in implementing modular integrated utility systems

Social costs associated with the design, demonstration, and implementation of the Modular Integrated Utility System are considered including the social climate of communities, leadership patterns, conflicts and cleavages, specific developmental values, MIUS utility goal assessment, and the suitability of certian alternative options for use in a program of implementation. General considerations are discussed in the field of socio-technological planning. These include guidelines for understanding the conflict and diversity; some relevant goal choices and ideas useful to planners of the MIUS facility.

Lede, N. W.↗

Verification, Validation, and Solution Quality in Computational Physics: CFD Methods Applied to Ice Sheet Physics

Procedures and methods for veri.cation of coding algebra and for validations of models and calculations used in the aerospace computational fluid dynamics (CFD) community would be ef.cacious if used by the glacier dynamics modeling community. This paper presents some of those methods, and how they might be applied to uncertainty management supporting code veri.cation and model validation for glacier dynamics. The similarities and differences between their use in CFD analysis and the proposed application of these methods to glacier modeling are discussed. After establishing sources of uncertainty and methods for code veri.cation, the paper looks at a representative sampling of veri.cation and validation efforts that are underway in the glacier modeling community, and establishes a context for these within an overall solution quality assessment. Finally, a vision of a new information architecture and interactive scienti.c interface is introduced and advocated.

Thompson, David E.↗

New Geologic Map of the Argyre Region of Mars

The new generation of Mars orbital topographic and imaging data justifies a new mapping effort of the Argyre impact basin and surroundings (-30.0deg to -65.0deg lat., -20.0deg to -70.0deg long; Fig.1). Our primary objective is to produce a geologic map of the Argyre region at 1:5,000,000 scale in both digital and print formats. The map will detail the stratigraphic and crosscutting relations among rock materials and landforms. These include Argyre basin infill, impact crater rim materials and adjoining highland materials of Noachis Terra, valleys and elongated basins that are radial and concentric about the primary Argyre basin, faults, enigmatic ridges, lobate debris aprons, and valley networks. Such information will be useful to the planetary science community for constraining the regional geology, paleohydrology, and paleoclimate. This includes the assessment of: (a) whether the Argyre basin contained lakes [1], (b) the extent of reported flooding and glaciation, which includes ancient flows of volatiles into the impact basin [2-4], (c) existing interpretations of the origin of the narrow ridges located in the southeast part of the basin floor [2,5], and (d) the extent of Argyre-related tectonism and its influence on the surrounding regions. Whereas the geologic mapping investigation of Timothy Parker focuses on the Argyre floor materials at 1:1,000,000 (MTMs -50036, -50043, -55036, -55043; see Fig. 1 for approximate corners of the area), our regional geologic mapping investigation includes the Argyre basin floor and rim materials, the transition zone that straddles the Thaumasia plateau, which includes Argyre impact-related modification [6], and the southeast margin of the Thaumasia plateau using important new data sets (Fig. 1). Our mapping effort will incorporate the map information of Parker if it is made available during the project.

Dohm, J. M.↗

Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Phenomenological Verification Techniques

Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, 45th Weather Squadron, and National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL use mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output in creating their operational forecasts. These models aid in forecasting weather phenomena that could compromise the safety of launch, landing, and daily ground operations and must produce reasonable weather forecasts in order for their output to be useful in operations. Considering the importance of model forecasts to operations, their accuracy in forecasting critical weather phenomena must be verified to determine their usefulness. The currently-used traditional verification techniques involve an objective point-by-point comparison of model output and observations valid at the same time and location. The resulting statistics can unfairly penalize high-resolution models that make realistic forecasts of a certain phenomena, but are offset from the observations in small time and/or space increments. Manual subjective verification can provide a more valid representation of model performance, but is time-consuming and prone to personal biases. An objective technique that verifies specific meteorological phenomena, much in the way a human would in a subjective evaluation, would likely produce a more realistic assessment of model performance. Such techniques are being developed in the research community. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a literature search to identify phenomenological verification techniques being developed, determine if any are ready to use operationally, and outline the steps needed to implement any operationally-ready techniques into the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The AMU conducted a search of all literature on the topic of phenomenological-based mesoscale model verification techniques and found 10 different techniques in various stages of development. Six of the techniques were developed to verify precipitation forecasts, one to verify sea breeze forecasts, and three were capable of verifying several phenomena. The AMU also determined the feasibility of transitioning each technique into operations and rated the operational capability of each technique on a subjective 1-10 scale: (1) 1 indicates that the technique is only in the initial stages of development, (2) 2-5 indicates that the technique is still undergoing modifications and is not ready for operations, (3) 6-8 indicates a higher probability of integrating the technique into AWIPS with code modifications, and (4) 9-10 indicates that the technique was created for AWIPS and is ready for implementation. Eight of the techniques were assigned a rating of 5 or below. The other two received ratings of 6 and 7, and none of the techniques a rating of 9-10. At the current time, there are no phenomenological model verification techniques ready for operational use. However, several of the techniques described in this report may become viable techniques in the future and should be monitored for updates in the literature. The desire to use a phenomenological verification technique is widespread in the modeling community, and it is likely that other techniques besides those described herein are being developed, but the work has not yet been published. Therefore, the AMIU recommends that the literature continue to be monitored for updates to the techniques described in this report and for new techniques being developed whose results have not yet been published. 111

Lambert, Winifred↗

Simulation Credibility: Advances in Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

Decision makers and other users of simulations need to know quantified simulation credibility to make simulation-based critical decisions and effectively use simulations, respectively. The credibility of a simulation is quantified by its accuracy in terms of uncertainty, and the responsibility of establishing credibility lies with the creator of the simulation. In this volume, we present some state-of-the-art philosophies, principles, and frameworks. The contributing authors involved in this publication have been dedicated to advancing simulation credibility. They detail and provide examples of key advances over the last 10 years in the processes used to quantify simulation credibility: verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. The philosophies and assessment methods presented here are anticipated to be useful to other technical communities conducting continuum physics-based simulations; for example, issues related to the establishment of simulation credibility in the discipline of propulsion are discussed. We envision that simulation creators will find this volume very useful to guide and assist them in quantitatively conveying the credibility of their simulations.

Simulation Credibility↗

Simple Tool for Aircraft Noise-Reduction Route Design

The design of arrival and departure routes from an airport has to balance the conflicting requirements of fuel efficiency, airport capacity utilization and community emission and noise considerations. The commonly used tools for aircraft noise assessment are the FAA’s Integrated Noise Model (INM) and Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT). These tools are suitable to generate precise noise contours. However, they are harder to use with other tools for route design optimization involving evaluation of a large number of aircraft trajectories. A simplified aircraft noise computation tool, named AIRNOISE, is developed for preliminary aircraft noise-reduction route design in this paper. AIRNOISE computes aircraft noise based on the same SAE-AIR-1845 procedures used by INM and AEDT. AIRNOISE does not consider components related to terrain and atmosphere adjustments. As a result, it is not only computationally efficient but also flexible to use for customized aircraft profiles. The aircraft noise results are compared with the FAA’s AEDT2b and show that the level of accuracy achieved by AIRNOISE can be used to reduce the number of route design options to a small number from a large pool for subsequent accurate analysis by INM.

Li, Jinhua↗

Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events

Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and subsequent geomagnetic impacts of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth is an important objective for space weather forecasting agencies. Recently, the CME Arrival and Impact working team has made significant progress toward defining communit yagreed metrics and validation methods to assess the current state of CME modeling capabilities. This will allow the community to quantify our current capabilities and track progress in models over time. First, it is crucial that the community focuses on the collection of the necessary metadata for transparency and reproducibility of results. Concerning CME arrival and impact we have identified six different metadata types: 3D CME measurement, model description, model input, CME (non)arrival observation, model output data, and metrics and validation methods. Second, the working team has also identified a validation time period, where all events within the following two periods will be considered: 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2012 and January 2015 to 31 December 2015. Those two periods amount to a total of about 100 hit events at Earth and a large amount of misses. Considering a time period will remove any bias in selecting events and the event set will represent a sample set that will not be biased by user selection. Lastly, we have defined the basic metrics and skill scores that the CME Arrival and Impact working team will focus on.

Verbeke, C.↗

Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events Using Library Tools (CAMEL) Framework: Time Series Comparisons

The Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (CAMEL) framework leverages existing Community Coordinated Modeling Center services: Run on Request post processing tools that generate model time series outputs and the new Community Coordinated Modeling Center Metadata Registry that describes simulation runs using Space Physics Archive Search and Extract metadata. The new CAMEL visualization tool compares the modeled time series with observational data and computes a suite of skill scores such as Prediction Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error, and Symmetric Signed Percentage Bias. Model data pairs used for skill calculations are obtained considering a user selected maximum difference between the time of observation and the nearest model output. The system renders available data for all locations and time periods selected using interactive visualizations that allow the user to zoom, pan, and pick data values along traces. Skill scores are reported for each selected event or aggregated over all events for all participating model runs. Separately, scores are reported for all locations (satellites or stations) and for each location individually. We are building on past experiences with model data comparisons of magnetosphere and ionosphere model outputs from GEM2008, GEMCEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere, and the SWPC Operational Space Weather Model challenges. The CAMEL visualization tool is demonstrated using three validation studies: (a) Wang Sheeley Arge heliosphere simulations compared against OMNI solar wind data, (b) ground magnetic perturbations from several magnetosphere and ionosphere electrodynamics models as observed by magnetometers, and (c) electron fluxes from several ring current simulations compared to Radiation Belt Storm Probes Helium Oxygen Proton Electron instrument measurements, integrated over different energy ranges.

Rastätter, Lutz↗

UAM Decision Making

NASA, in collaboration with the industry and FAA, is conducting research on Urban Air Mobility (UAM). UAM introduces unique and evolving operational characteristics unaccounted for within current transportation planning tools. This evolving modality requires a unique and comprehensive tool that integrates new and existing planning methodologies to provide a holistic solution for decision makers. NASA has identified a number of barriers and research areas related to aircraft, airspace, and communities as well as infrastructure requirements. The research will identify requirements related to urban capable aircraft and airspace technologies. While civil aviation authorities are responsible for safety and structure of operations through the air, the local and regional authorities are responsible for decisions related to location of vertiports, helipads, and airports. The implementation of UAM vertiports will consider diverse regional system categories such as weather, airspace restrictions, noise acceptability, surface traffic, availability of power, vertipad locations, routes, impact on surface traffic, safety and risks, economic impact, ingress/egress for electric/hybrid VTOL aircraft, applicable fire codes, evacuation strategy, zoning requirements, emergency preparedness, interactions with surface traffic, and community acceptance. Therefore, regional implementation bodies need a decision making tool to assess systemic dependencies in preparation for UAM impact on the region. We are developing a simulation and modeling tool that allows regional authorities to consider many factors while deciding the location of vertiport and UAM operations. The objective of this paper is to present the conceptual design of a comprehensive decision making tool to assist planning bodies in developing UAM infrastructure. Specifically, the UAM planning tool will simultaneously consider all relevant local/regional considerations to identify for vertiport locations and UAM operations for a region.

Parimal Kopardekar↗

NASA Analysis of Alternatives Study for Icing Research

In 2020, NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate commissioned a study of the icing research area to provide a broad and comprehensive assessment of priority needs for NASA and enduring needs for the aviation community. Priority needs were those that supported four key focus areas for NASA Aeronautics—Transonic Truss-Braced Wing, Electrified Aircraft Propulsion, Small-Core Turbine Engine, and High-Rate Composite Manufacturing—as well as other priority areas, such as Advanced Air Mobility, Certification by Analysis, and Commercial Supersonic Technology. Enduring needs were the additional long-term capabilities and expertise identified by the aviation community as being critical for NASA to provide. This study is called an Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) because a large number of icing research needs were identified and analyzed to determine the highest priorities for NASA key focus areas and those that will endure into the future. This report offers a detailed description and results of the AoA study for icing research.

Aircraft Icing, Aircraft Icing, Rotorcraft Icing, ↗

Interactive Framework to Support Open Model-Data Validation Efforts at the CCMC

Validation of models using observation data has been a central activity at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) over more than a decade. The Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (CAMEL) framework is a database-driven implementation of the interactive analysis of model-data comparisons that simultaneously provides a view across a multitude of locations and time periods. CAMEL thus extends the single-location or single-trajectory timeseries data comparison capabilities provided by the CCMC online visualization that formed the backbone of initial validation efforts. We demonstrate CAMEL capabilities for an example application to study Neutral Density in the upper atmosphere among comparisons in the heliosphere, the Earth’s radiation belt, magnetosphere, and ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere domains.

Lutz Rastaetter↗

A Survey of the Severity of Mental Health Symptoms in the Planetary Science Community

There is a growing recognition of a mental health crisis within the academic and research communities. Members of the planetary science community have called for healthier work environments to improve mental well-being. As a preliminary step towards improving workplace culture, we sought to determine if the broader mental health crisis extends to planetary science and assess the severity of anxiety, depressive, and stress symptoms. Our 2022 mental health survey of the planetary science community suggests that the severity of anxiety and depressive symptoms in the community is greater than in the general US population. Further, the anxiety and depressive symptoms are more severe for graduate students and postdoctoral researchers than any other career stage. Comparing groups within planetary science, we found that anxiety, depressive, and/or stress symptoms appear greater among marginalized groups, such as women, people of color, and members of the LGBTQ+ community. A mental health problem is impacting the planetary science community. Improving well-being will promote enhanced research quality and productivity.

David Trang↗