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National summary for agricultural crops and residues, 2041

This dataset contains national summary data on agricultural crop and residue production, which include agricultural crop, agricultural residue, herbaceous energy crop, and woody energy crop. Each tab in the Excel file contains information corresponding to a resource category, and within each tab, there is a structured table presenting resource production (in dry short ton) by offered price (in USD per dry short ton) across multiple scenarios (mature-market low, mature-market medium, and mature-market high). Consistent with the 2023 Billion-Ton report for agricultural resources, these scenarios represent potential production scenarios for 2041. List of the resources shown in this dataset: - Agricultural crop: Barley, Corn, Cotton, Grain sorghum, Hay, Oats, Rice, Soybeans, Wheat - Agricultural residue: Barley straw, Corn stover, Oats straw, Sorghum stubble, Wheat straw - Herbaceous energy crop: Biomass sorghum, Energy cane, Miscanthus, Switchgrass - Woody energy crop: Eucalyptus, Pine, Poplar, Willow

agricultural crop↗

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Proximate composition of CELSS crops grown in NASA's Biomass Production Chamber

Edible biomass from four crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), four crops of lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.), four crops of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), and three crops of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) grown in NASA's CELSS Biomass Production Chamber were analyzed for proximate composition. All plants were grown using recirculating nutrient (hydroponic) film culture with pH and electrical conductivity automatically controlled. Temperature and humidity were controlled to near optimal levels for each species and atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressures were maintained near 100 Pa during the light cycles. Soybean seed contained the highest percentage of protein and fat, potato tubers and wheat seed contained the highest levels of carbohydrate, and lettuce leaves contained the highest level of ash. Analyses showed values close to data published for field-grown plants with several exceptions: In comparison with field-grown plants, wheat seed had higher protein levels; soybean seed had higher ash and crude fiber levels; and potato tubers and lettuce leaves had higher protein and ash levels. The higher ash and protein levels may have been a result of the continuous supply of nutrients (e.g., potassium and nitrogen) to the plants by the recirculating hydroponic culture.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Primer: Physical Factors of Agricultural Production & Climate Change

This white paper is a primer on physical factors that influence agricultural production and associated touchpoints to climate change. Agricultural production (which includes both crop and livestock production) is critical for food security and supports other economic products, such as textiles and generation of fuels for energy. Various physical factors influence agricultural production, including the crop types being cultivated and livestock being raised; land area and quality; water access and control; fertilizers, pesticides, and antibiotics; labor; and infrastructure associated with processing, storage, and transportation. These factors are impacted by climate change in both chronic and acute ways, from changing temperatures and precipitation patterns to increased prevalence of extreme events and diseases. We draw on examples from around the world to show the complex ways that agricultural production factors and climate interact with local capacities to influence regions around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop−water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980−2009) and mid-century climates (2040−2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to ~31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

farm crops↗

Constitutive down‐regulation of liguleless alleles in sorghum drives increased productivity and water use efficiency

Plant architecture influences the microenvironment throughout the canopy layer. Plants with a more erect leaf architecture allow for an increase in planting densities and allow more light to reach lower canopy leaves. This is predicted to increase crop carbon assimilation. Frictional resistance to wind reduces air movement in the lower canopy, resulting in higher humidity. By increasing the proportion of canopy photosynthesis in the more humid lower canopy, gains in the efficiency of water use might be expected, although this may be slightly offset by the more open erectophile form canopy. An anatomical feature in members of the Poaceae family that impacts leaf angle is the articulated junction of the sheath and blade, which also bares the ligule and auricles. Mutants, which lack ligules and auricles, show no articulation at this junction, resulting in leaves that are near vertical. In maize, these phenotypes termed liguleless result from null mutations of genes: ZmLG1 (Zm00001eb67740) and ZmLG2 (Zm00001eb147220). In sorghum, SbiRTx430.06G264300 (SbLG1) and SbiRTx430.03G392300 (SbLG2) are annotated as the respective maize homologues. A hair-pin element designed to down-regulate both SbLG1 and SbLG2 was introduced into the grain sorghum genotype RTx430. Derived transgenic events harbouring the hair-pin failed to develop ligules and displayed reduced leaf angles to the vertical, but less vertical than in null mutations. Under field settings, plots sown with these sorghum events having an erect architecture phenotype displayed an increase in photosynthesis in lower canopy levels, which led to increases in above-ground biomass and seed yield, without an increase in water use.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Planting miscanthus instead of row crops may increase the productivity and economic performance of farmed potholes

Abstract Climate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean ( Zea mays L. and Glycine max Merr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (>30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (<10%). Under one future precipitation scenario with increased spring precipitation, both the corn/soybean rotation and miscanthus simulations showed an increase in yield. A simple budget analysis indicated that it is more profitable to plant miscanthus instead of corn or soybeans where yields in farmed potholes are consistently poor. Our findings show that potholes can be individually modeled, and their influence on yield can be quantified for use in future management decisions dictated by change in climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nominal 30-M Cropland Extent Map of Continental Africa by Integrating Pixel-Based and Object-Based Algorithms Using Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 Data on Google Earth Engine

A satellite-derived cropland extent map at high spatial resolution (30-m or better) is a must for food and water security analysis. Precise and accurate global cropland extent maps, indicating cropland and non-cropland areas, is a starting point to develop high-level products such as crop watering methods (irrigated or rainfed), cropping intensities (e.g., single, double, or continuous cropping), crop types, cropland fallows, as well as assessment of cropland productivity (productivity per unit of land), and crop water productivity (productivity per unit of water). Uncertainties associated with the cropland extent map have cascading effects on all higher-level cropland products. However, precise and accurate cropland extent maps at high spatial resolution over large areas (e.g., continents or the globe) are challenging to produce due to the small-holder dominant agricultural systems like those found in most of Africa and Asia. Cloud-based Geospatial computing platforms and multi-date, multi-sensor satellite image inventories on Google Earth Engine offer opportunities for mapping croplands with precision and accuracy over large areas that satisfy the requirements of broad range of applications. Such maps are expected to provide highly significant improvements compared to existing products, which tend to be coarser in resolution, and often fail to capture fragmented small-holder farms especially in regions with high dynamic change within and across years. To overcome these limitations, in this research we present an approach for cropland extent mapping at high spatial resolution (30-m or better) using the 10-day, 10 to 20-m, Sentinel-2 data in combination with 16-day, 30-m, Landsat-8 data on Google Earth Engine (GEE). First, nominal 30-m resolution satellite imagery composites were created from 36,924 scenes of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 images for the entire African continent in 2015-2016. These composites were generated using a median-mosaic of five bands (blue, green, red, near-infrared, NDVI) during each of the two periods (period 1: January-June 2016 and period 2: July-December 2015) plus a 30-m slope layer derived from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation dataset. Second, we selected Cropland/Non-cropland training samples (sample size 9791) from various sources in GEE to create pixel-based classifications. As supervised classification algorithm, Random Forest (RF) was used as the primary classifier because of its efficiency, and when over-fitting issues of RF happened due to the noise of input training data, Support Vector Machine (SVM) was applied to compensate for such defects in specific areas. Third, the Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation (RHSeg) algorithm was employed to generate an object-oriented segmentation layer based on spectral and spatial properties from the same input data. This layer was merged with the pixel-based classification to improve segmentation accuracy. Accuracies of the merged 30-m crop extent product were computed using an error matrix approach in which 1754 independent validation samples were used. In addition, a comparison was performed with other available cropland maps as well as with LULC maps to show spatial similarity. Finally, the cropland area results derived from the map were compared with UN FAO statistics. The independent accuracy assessment showed a weighted overall accuracy of 94, with a producers accuracy of 85.9 (or omission error of 14.1), and users accuracy of 68.5 (commission error of 31.5) for the cropland class. The total net cropland area (TNCA) of Africa was estimated as 313 Mha for the nominal year 2015.

Cropland mapping; cropland areas; 30-m; Landsat-8;↗

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Health, Labor, and Crop Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in the United States

Societal benefits from climate change mitigation accrue via multiple pathways. We examine the US impacts of emission changes on several factors that are affected by both climate and air quality responses. Nationwide benefits through midcentury stem primarily from air quality improvements, which are realized rapidly, and include human health, labor productivity, and crop yield benefits. Benefits from reduced heat exposure become large around 2060, thereafter often dominating over those from improved air quality. Monetized benefits are in the tens of trillions of dollars for avoided deaths and tens of billions for labor productivity and crop yield increases and reduced hospital expenditures. Total monetized benefits this century are dominated by health and are much larger than in previous analyses due to improved understanding of the human health impacts of exposure to both heat and air pollution. Benefit–cost ratios are therefore much larger than in prior studies, especially those that neglected clean air benefits. Specifically, benefits from clean air exceed costs in the first decade, whereas benefits from climate alone exceed costs in the latter half of the century. Furthermore, monetized US benefits largely stem from US emissions reductions. Increased emphasis on the localized, near-term air quality–related impacts would better align policies with societal benefits and, by reducing the mismatch between perception of climate as a risk distant in space and time and the need for rapid action to mitigate long-term climate change, might help increase acceptance of mitigation policies.

climate change↗

Overview of the AgRISTARS research program. I

An account is given of the activities and accomplishments to date of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS) program, which is a cooperative venture with NASA and the Departments of the Interior and of Commerce. AgRISTARS research activities encompass early warning and crop condition assessment, inventory technology development for production forecasting, crop yield model development, soil moisture monitoring, domestic crops and land cover sensing, renewable resources inventory, and conservation and pollution assessment.

Caudill, C. E.↗

Scientific Verification Test of Orbitec Deployable Vegetable Production System for Salad Crop Growth on ISS- Gas Exchange System design and function

The ability to produce and maintain salad crops during long term missions would be a great benefit to NASA; the renewable food supply would save cargo space, weight and money. The ambient conditions of previous ground controlled crop plant experiments do not reflect the microgravity and high CO2 concentrations present during orbit. It has been established that microgravity does not considerably alter plant growth. (Monje, Stutte, Chapman, 2005). To support plants in a space-craft environment efficient and effective lighting and containment units are necessary. Three lighting systems were previously evaluated for radish growth in ambient air; fluorescent lamps in an Orbitec Biomass Production System Educational (BPSE), a combination of red, blue, and green LED's in a Deployable Vegetable Production System (Veggie), and a combination of red and blue LED's in a Veggie. When mass measurements compared the entire possible growing area vs. power consumed by the respective units, the Veggies clearly exceeded the BPSE indicating that the LED units were a more resource efficient means of growing radishes under ambient conditions in comparison with fluorescent lighting. To evaluate the most productive light treatment system for a long term space mission a more closely simulated ISS environment is necessary. To induce a CO2 dense atmosphere inside the Veggie's and BPSE a gas exchange system has been developed to maintain a range of 1000-1200 ppm CO2 during a 21-day light treatment experiment. This report details the design and function of the gas exchange system. The rehabilitation, trouble shooting, maintenance and testing of the gas exchange system have been my major assignments. I have also contributed to the planting, daily measurements and harvesting of the radish crops 21-day light treatment verification test.

Eldemire, Ashleigh↗

A model of regional primary production for use with coarse resolution satellite data

A model of crop primary production, which was originally developed to relate the amount of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) to net production in field studies, is discussed in the context of coarse resolution regional remote sensing of primary production. The model depends on an approximately linear relationship between APAR and the normalized difference vegetation index. A more comprehensive form of the conventional model is shown to be necessary when different physiological types of plants or heterogeneous vegetation types occur within the study area. The predicted variable in the new model is total assimilation (net production plus respiration) rather than net production alone or harvest yield.

Prince, S. D.↗

Developing a Crop Mask for Agricultural Assessments in Kenya

Kenya relies on agricultural production for supporting local consumption and other processing value chains. The role of agriculture in supporting Kenya's economy is critical, with its contribution to the Gross Domestic product (GDP) estimated at over 277,000 Million in 2016. With changing climate in a rain-fed dependent agricultural production system, cropping zones are shifting and proper decision making will require updated data for proper delineation of cropping areas and extent; especially in agriculture and food security assessments. Where up-to-date data is not available it is important that it is generated and passed over to relevant stakeholders to inform their decision making processes. It is important that government agencies, non-governmental agencies and other agricultural stakeholders access updated tools and information to assist in their assessments. To support agricultural decision making, SERVIR E&SA will develop an updated agricultural crop mask. Due to intercropping especially in small holder farming, the mask will cover all crops to provide an overall map of cropped areas.

environment↗