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At least 595 records · Page 33

MFC 5.0: An exascale many-physics flow solver

Many problems of interest in engineering, medicine, and the fundamental sciences rely on high-fidelity flow simulation, making performant computational fluid dynamics solvers a mainstay of the open-source software community. Previous work MFC 3.0 was made a published, documented, and open-source solver via Bryngelson et al. Comp. Phys. Comm. (2021) with numerous physical features, numerical methods, and scalable infrastructure. MFC 5.0 is a significant update to MFC 3.0, featuring a broad set of well-established and novel physical models and numerical methods, as well as the introduction of GPU and APU (or superchip) acceleration. Here, we exhibit state-of-the-art performance and ideal scaling on the first two exascale supercomputers, OLCF Frontier and LLNL El Capitan. Combined with MFC’s single-accelerator performance, MFC achieves exascale computation in practice, and achieved the largest-to-date public CFD simulation at 200 trillion grid points as a 2025 ACM Gordon Bell Prize finalist. New physical features include the immersed boundary method, N-fluid phase change, Euler–Euler and Euler–Lagrange sub-grid bubble models, fluid-structure interaction, hypo- and hyper-elastic materials, chemically reacting flow, two-material surface tension, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), and more. Numerical techniques now represent the current state-of-the-art, including general relaxation characteristic boundary conditions, WENO variants, Strang splitting for stiff sub-grid flow features, and low Mach number treatments. Weak scaling to tens of thousands of GPUs on OLCF Summit and Frontier and LLNL El Capitan achieves efficiencies within 5% of ideal to over 90% of their respective system sizes. Strong scaling results for a 16-times increase in device count show parallel efficiencies over 90% on OLCF Frontier. MFC’s software stack has undergone further improvements, including continuous integration, which ensures code resilience and correctness through over 300 regression tests; metaprogramming, which reduces code length while maintaining performance portability; and code generation for computing chemical reactions

Computational fluid dynamics↗

A careful examination of closure models in Euler–Lagrange Simulations of compressible multiphase flow in a planar shock particle curtain problem

In this work we present a comprehensive investigation of state-of-the-art closure models employed to represent interphase momentum, thermal, and work exchange between the gas and particulate phases for Euler–Lagrange (EL) simulations in shock-driven flows. A complete list of closures for the force, torque, heat transfer, and work exchange models is provided. In particular, the present work includes a stochastic closure for the particle-to-particle variation in the quasi-steady force and a deterministic closure for particle-to-particle variation in the added mass force in an EL framework. These variations arise due to the presence of neighboring particles and particle–particle interactions. To investigate the importance of each closure term, we carry out fully three-dimensional simulations for a planar shock propagating over a random bed of inert particles. The primary goal is to evaluate the role of each closure term on the gas dynamic features (such as transmitted and reflected shock locations) and particle curtain features (such as upstream and downstream curtain locations). To this end, thirteen cases are considered, with each case progressively including a closure model with the goal to identify and quantify its contribution to the simulated dynamics. We show that the volume fraction dependence of the mean force models plays an important role in generating wave-like instabilities that lead to concentration bands. In addition, fluctuations in quasi-steady and added mass forces primarily decrease the internal instabilities that tend to enhance local volume fraction variations. Particle rotation is primarily due to inter-particle collisions, is generally weak, and does not play an important role in the translational dynamics for the present configuration. Inter-phase heat transfer has a strong effect on gas phase temperature, slows down the transmitted and reflected shocks, and decreases the width of the curtain. Furthermore, the absence of a work-coupling model fails to conserve the total energy, greatly under-predicts the gas temperature which in turn affects the particle dynamics.

Compressible flow↗

Enabling AC electroluminescence in quasi-2D perovskites by uniformly arranging different-n-value nanoplates to allow bidirectional charge transport

Perovskite light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are normally operated under forward direct current (DC) to realize electron/hole injection at cathode/anode surfaces. In this work, we demonstrate an alternating current (AC) driven LED enabled by bi-directionally allowed charge transport in quasi-2D perovskite (PEA 2 MA n-1 PbnI 3n+1 ) film. Essentially, the bi-directional charge transport is realized by uniformly arranging different-n-value 2D nanoplates together with symmetrically designed anode/cathode interfaces, which can allow injected electrons and holes to form light-emitting states under both forward and reverse biases, leading to an AC electroluminescence (EL) with the device architecture of ITO/PEI/PEDOT:PSS/PEA 2 MA n-1 PbnI 3n+1 /P3HT/PEI/Ag. The high AC EL performance was achieved with the radiance = 24 W Sr -1 m -2 and 18.3 W Sr -1 m -2 and EQE = 12.5% and 3.7% under forward and reverse biases. Furthermore, the device-operational stability was largely improved with the half-intensity time of T 50 = 11.0 h under AC bias (+2 V/-2 V, 50 Hz) as compared to T 50 = 3.9 h under forward bias (+2 V/0 V, 50 Hz).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A novel stress-induced martensitic transformation in a single-phase refractory high-entropy alloy

High-entropy alloys (HEAs) provide a new perspective to design metastable alloys with the stress-induced martensitic transformation (SIMT) for overcoming the strength-ductility trade-off. Here, we report a novel SIMT, orthorhombic to hexagonal close-packed martensite, in a single orthorhombic refractory HEA (Ti 16 Zr 35 Hf 35 Ta 14 RHEA), showing a good yield strength-ductility matching. The analysis of the elastic distortion energy (ΔE els ) of Ti 16 Zr 35 Hf 35 Ta 14 and several other RHEAs reveals that severe lattice distortion is a key factor which causes this SIMT. Combined the “d-electron alloy design” approach with the ΔE els , the phase configuration and SIMT path in RHEAs can be well predicted. Our work brings new insights between the lattice distortion and SIMT of RHEAs, benefiting the metastable alloy development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hotspot testing of glass/backsheet and glass/glass PV modules pre-stressed in extended thermal cycling

This paper investigates the effect of hotspot (HS) stress endurance of two of the latest designs of monocrystalline modules: a half-cell glass/backsheet (G/B) module and a full-cell glass/glass (G/G) module. These modules have already been pre-stressed in extended thermal cycling with 600 cycles per the IEC 61215 standard to represent field-stressed modules. This study differs from the other conventional studies wherein only fresh modules are subjected to hotspot endurance stress. The G/G module reached a maximum temperature of approximately 200 °C at a cell shading of 25 %, 55 °C higher than the maximum hotspot temperature of 145 °C in the G/B module. A significant burn mark, without glass shattering, was observed in the hotspot-stressed cell of the G/G module due to the current mismatch induced by partial shading. Most of the cells in the G/G module appear to be severely damaged (severe dark areas), as observed in the electroluminescence (EL) image, while the dark regions were rarely present in the G/B module. The EL image also illustrates multiple cell cracks that resist current flow and eventually contribute to the full-cell module degradation. About 8.3 % degradation in maximum power was observed for the G/G module and 1.3 % for the G/B module after the sequential stress tests. The lower degradation in the G/B module can potentially be attributed to its design, which comprises of two parallel strings, each having 72-half-cells and benefits from lower heat dissipation. Furthermore, this indicates that the half-cell design could potentially minimize the hotspot degradation and failures in crystalline-silicon modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Accurate models of the added mass force of a uniform random distribution of spherical particles or bubbles

The added mass force resulting from the acceleration of a body in a fluid is of fundamental and practical interest in dispersed multiphase flows. Euler–Lagrange (EL) and Euler–Euler (EE) simulations require closure terms for the added mass force in order to accurately couple the conserved variables between phases. Presently, a more thorough understanding of the added mass force in a multi-particle system is developed based on potential flow resulting in a resistance matrix formulation analogous to Stokesian dynamics. This formulation is then used to generate a dataset of added mass resistance matrices for large systems of randomly generated particles. This methodology is used to create a volume fraction corrected binary model for predicting the added mass force in large systems as well as generate statistics of the added mass force in such systems. This work provides clarification to the theory of the added mass force for particle clouds, and modelling options that may be implemented in existing EL and EE codes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific

Abstract We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28 different models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model‐analog forecast skill has been demonstrated to match or even exceed traditional assimilation‐initialized forecast skill in a given model. Models with the most realistic mean states and interannual variability for SST, precipitation, and 10‐m zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific also generate the most skillful precipitation forecasts in the central equatorial Pacific and the best SST forecasts at 6‐month or longer leads. These results show direct links between model climatological biases and seasonal forecast errors, demonstrating that model‐analog hindcast skill—that is, how well a model can capture the observed evolution of tropical Pacific anomalies—is an informative El Niño/Southern Oscillation metric for climate simulations.

Ding, Hui↗

Disproving the Bodélé Depression as the Primary Source of Dust Fertilizing the Amazon Rainforest

Motivated by the ongoing debates about the relative contribution of specific North African dust sources to the transatlantic dust transport to the Amazon Basin, the current study integrates a suite of satellite observations into a novel trajectory analysis framework to investigate dust transport from the leading two North African dust sources, namely, the Bodélé depression and El Djouf. In particular, this approach provides observation-constrained quantification of the dust's dry and wet deposition along its transport pathways and is validated against multiple satellite observations. The current large ensemble trajectory simulations identify favorable transport pathways from the El Djouf across the Atlantic Ocean with respect to seasonal rain belts. The limited potential for long-range transport of dust from the Bodélé depression is attributed to the currently identified extensive near-source dust removal primarily by dry and wet deposition during boreal winter and summer, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Warm Phase of AMV Damps ENSO Through Weakened Thermocline Feedback

Abstract Interactions between ocean basins affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), altering its impacts on society. Here, we explore the effect of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on ENSO behavior using idealized experiments performed with the NCAR‐CESM1 model. Comparing warm (AMV+) to cold (AMV−) AMV conditions, we find that ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are reduced by ∼10% and ENSO precipitation anomalies are shifted to the west during El Niño and east during La Niña. Using the Bjerknes stability index, we attribute the reduction in ENSO variability to a weakened thermocline feedback in boreal autumn. In AMV+, the Walker circulation and trade winds strengthen over the tropical Pacific, increasing the background zonal SST gradient. The background changes shift ENSO anomalies westwards, with wind stress anomalies more confined to the west. We suggest the changes in ENSO‐wind stress decrease the strength of the thermocline feedback in the east, eventually reducing ENSO growth rate.

Trascasa‐Castro, Paloma↗

Equatorial Origin of the Observed Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Variability From ENSO Nonlinearity

Quasi-decadal (QD) climate variability is detected in the tropical Pacific based on the recent 70 years of observations. This QD variability is identified in equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the pattern of which resembles the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but extends further meridionally to the northeastern subtropical Pacific. Whereas equatorial upper-ocean heat content and SSTs are in quadrature for ENSO, these two quantities are almost in phase on the QD timescale. Further analysis shows that nonlinear dynamical heating, primarily originating from strong El Niño events, tends to lead QD SSTs by a quarter of its dominant period (approximately 30 months) and shapes the dominant QD periodicity in observations. Here, our results suggest that the observed QD variability largely originates from ENSO nonlinearity and thus is fundamentally different from ENSO's oscillatory nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropical Oceanic Influences on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The global tropical cyclone (TC) number has historically been relatively constant from year‐to‐year, however, the reason remains unknown. Furthermore, climate projections are inconclusive regarding future global TC frequency changes. Here, we investigated years in which observed global TC activity deviated from the mean and potential links to ocean drivers from 1980 to 2021. We found that the annual global number of named storm days and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) were significantly linked with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). La Niña and positive AMM are associated with the bottom percentiles of both TC metrics, and vice versa for El Niño and negative AMM. The ENSO Longitude Index explains variability in annual global named storm days and ACE as well as the Niño 3.4 index. This research reveals that reliable future projections of ENSO are necessary, but not sufficient, to understand future changes in global TC frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Tropical Cyclones in Determining ENSO Characteristics

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can effectively modulate global tropical cyclone (TC) activity, but the role TCs may play in determining ENSO characteristics remains unclear. Here we investigate the impact of TC winds on ENSO using a suite of Earth system model experiments where we insert TC winds, extracted from a TC-permitting high-resolution simulation, into a low-resolution model configuration with nearly no intrinsic TCs. The presence of TC winds in the model increases ENSO power and shifts ENSO frequency closer to what we observe. TCs lead to an increase of strong to extreme El Niño events seen in observations and not simulated in the low-resolution model without intrinsic TCs, mainly through enhanced zonal advection feedback and thermocline feedback. Our results indicate that TCs play a fundamental role in producing the ENSO characteristics we experience today in the climate system and point to a two-way climatological interaction between TCs and ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ENSO Diversity and the Simulation of Its Teleconnections to Winter Precipitation Extremes Over the US in High Resolution Earth System Models

Abstract Accounting for the diversity in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s spatial pattern, with the novel ENSO longitudinal index (ELI), we evaluate the simulation of its teleconnections to US winter precipitation extremes by seven global high‐resolution (HR) Earth System Models (ESM). Six (four) HR ESMs simulate the observed increase in precipitation extremes over Southwest US (Southeast US) during ELI‐defined El Niño events better than their low‐resolution counterparts, which are low‐biased. The stronger ENSO‐dependence over the Southwest US and Southeast US in those models is associated with an improved simulation of moisture flux into the regions and/or storm track activity there. HR ESMs, however, generally overestimate the increase in precipitation extremes over the Pacific‐Northwest during La Niña events. Model bias there is associated with bias in moisture transport into the region during La Niña events, which is amplified by the enhanced vertical mass fluxes in HR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO in a Warmer Climate

This study quantifies the impacts of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under anthropogenic warming by comparing climate change model simulations with declining and fixed strengths of the overturning. After the 1980s, a weakened AMOC is shown to reduce the strength of the annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce anomalous cross-equatorial northerly winds there, which strengthens ENSO variability by about 11%. An analysis of the Bjerknes stability index reveals that this intensification of ENSO results mainly from enhanced Ekman upwelling feedback due to amplified atmospheric wind response to SST anomalies and oceanic upwelling response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The weakened AMOC also promotes the occurrence of Central Pacific El Niño events and reduces ENSO skewness. These AMOC impacts on ENSO magnitude and complexity throughout the twenty-first century are however smaller than ENSO variations expected from internal climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contributions of Climate Change and ENSO Variability to Future Precipitation Extremes Over California

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation through modulations of regional heat and moisture fluxes. California experiences particularly strong ENSO influences and models project different to its extreme precipitation. It remains unclear how diverse projections of future precipitation extremes relate to inter-model differences for those changing signals. Here, we use “large ensemble” simulations with multiple climate models along with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to investigate the range of precipitation extreme changes over California and the influences from ENSO-related teleconnections. We found that precipitation amount increases are much larger during El Niño relative to La Niña years, mainly caused by the differences in frequency of extreme events during different phases. The ENSO-driven effect is even larger than the overall climate change signal for the most extreme events, implying uncertainties from inter-model differences in ENSO-related SST variability for extreme precipitation changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet-Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance From the Current State of ENSO

Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TW max ). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TW max and significant regional TW max variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ~2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TW max of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TW max in specific areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Processes that Contribute to Future South Asian Monsoon Differences in E3SMv2 and CESM2

Abstract Two Earth system models are analyzed to gain insight into the processes that govern projected changes in the South Asian monsoon. Warmer present‐day base state tropical SSTs contribute to coupled processes that produce greater future tropical Pacific warming in CESM2 with less of an increase in season‐mean monsoon precipitation compared to E3SMv2. This is attributed to changes in the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric Walker circulation, with relatively larger increases in precipitation and upper‐level divergence over the tropical Pacific and increases in upper‐level convergence over South Asia in CESM2. The stronger El Niño‐like response in CESM2, which increases Pacific precipitation and upper‐level divergence farther to the east, and larger future ENSO amplitude in E3SMv2, produce a greater relative increase in future monsoon‐ENSO connections in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. This analysis indicates that the key processes that affect future monsoon‐ENSO connections are ENSO amplitude and size of the future tropical Pacific El Niño‐like response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Observed ENSO‐Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection

Abstract El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a skillful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in most TC basins. This study examines recent changes in the observed ENSO‐TC teleconnection strength, as measured by ENSO modulation of hurricane frequency. We find that the ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection fluctuated over time, with the strongest relationship occurring from the 1980s to the mid‐2000s. In the western and eastern North Pacific, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection has strengthened in recent decades. Periods with a strong ENSO‐TC teleconnection are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, with higher values of genesis potential indices. Positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation coincided with periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins. A weaker Atlantic ENSO‐TC relationship was associated with negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. This research reveals climate conditions that modulate ENSO's utility for seasonal TC prediction. Plain Language Summary El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a useful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in many basins. Here we found that the strength of the ENSO‐TC teleconnection, represented as the correlation between ENSO and the number of hurricanes and accumulated cyclone energy, has changed in the historical record. The ENSO‐TC teleconnection in the North Atlantic fluctuated over time, with a weak relationship during the 1960s and 1970s and a strong relationship during the 1980s to mid‐2000s. Meanwhile, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection strengthened in the North Pacific in recent decades, with strong teleconnections after the 1980s in the western North Pacific and after the 2000s in the eastern North Pacific. Periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, including higher values of genesis potential indices and higher mid‐tropospheric humidity, as well as positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Additionally, the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation leads to strong/weak ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. Furthermore, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation is associated with a weak ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection. This research highlights variations in ENSO's effectiveness for seasonal TC prediction. Key Points The observed impact of ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) activity exhibits multidecadal fluctuations The ENSO‐TC teleconnection was strong in the Atlantic from the 1980s to mid‐2000s and strengthened over the North Pacific in recent decades The ENSO‐TC teleconnection is stronger in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins during a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

ENSO↗