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DOE OSTI2024

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report (Rev.2)

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas

Abstract. Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply systems that buffer societies from the impacts of drought, enabling growth and prosperity. However, increasing water demand from population growth and economic development, combined with more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change, poses significant challenges for governments in the 21st century. Improved understanding of the cascading multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid in adaptive planning and highlight key processes in modeling drought impacts. The record drought spanning 2008 to 2015 in the Colorado Basin in the state of Texas, United States, serves as an outstanding illustration to assess multisectoral impacts and responses to severe, multi-year drought. The basin faces similar water security challenges to those across the western US, such as groundwater depletion and sustainability, resource competition between agriculture and growing urban populations, limited options for additional reservoir expansion, and the heightened risk of more severe and frequent droughts due to climate change. By analyzing rich, high-quality data sourced from nine different local, state, and federal sources, we demonstrate that characterizing regional multisector dynamics is crucial to predicting and understanding future vulnerability and possible approaches to reduce impacts to human and natural systems in the face of extreme drought conditions. This review reveals that, despite the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the drought, the region's advanced economy and existing water infrastructure effectively mitigated economic and societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Lunar and Lagrangian Point L1 L2 CubeSat Communication and Navigation Considerations

CubeSats have grown in sophistication to the point that relatively low-cost mission solutions could be undertaken for planetary exploration. There are unique considerations for Lunar and L1L2 CubeSat communication and navigation compared with low earth orbit CubeSats. This paper explores those considerations as they relate to the MoreheadGSFC Lunar IceCube Mission. The Lunar IceCube is a CubeSat mission led by Morehead State University with participation from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, JPL, the Busek Company and Vermont Tech. It will search for surface water ice and other resources from a high inclination lunar orbit. Lunar IceCube is one of a select group of CubeSats designed to explore beyond low-earth orbit that will fly on NASAs Space Launch System (SLS) as secondary payloads for Exploration Mission (EM) 1. Lunar IceCube and the EM-1 CubeSats will lay the groundwork for future lunar and L1L2 CubeSat missions. This paper discusses communication and navigation needs for the Lunar IceCube mission and navigation and radiation tolerance requirements related to lunar and L1L2 orbits. Potential CubeSat radio and antennas for such missions are investigated and compared. Ground station coverage, link analysis, and ground station solutions are also discussed. There are currently modifications in process for the Morehead ground station. Further enhancement of the Morehead ground station and the NASA Near Earth Network (NEN) are being examined. This paper describes how the NEN may support Lunar and L1L2 CubeSats without any enhancements and potential expansion of NEN to better support such missions in the future. The potential NEN enhancements include upgrading current NEN Cortex receiver with Forward Error Correction (FEC) Turbo Code, providing X-band Uplink capability, and adding ranging options. The benefits of ground station enhancements for CubeSats flown on NASA Exploration Missions (EM) are presented. The paper also discusses other initiatives that the NEN is studying to better support the CubeSat community, including streamlining the compatibility test, planning and scheduling associated with CubeSat missions.

CubeSat↗

DOE OSTI2026

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probing Physics beyond the Standard Model through Combined Analyses of Next-generation Type Ia Supernova, Cosmic Microwave Background, and Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Surveys

Observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), which probe the late Universe, together with baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB), which probe the intermediate and early epochs, provide complementary constraints on the expansion history of the Universe. In this work, we forecast constraints on dark energy and other extensions to the standard cosmological model by combining the SN Ia sample expected from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), data from current and forthcoming CMB surveys, and BAO measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). For the CMB, we use temperature, polarization, and lensing power spectra (TT/EE/TE/ϕϕ) from the South Pole Telescope, the planned Advanced Simons Observatory, and a CMB-S4–like experiment. We derive constraints on ΛCDM and its extensions involving the dark energy equation-of-state parameters (w 0 , w a ) and the sum of neutrino masses ∑m ν using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework. We find that the LSST Year 3 SN Ia sample can improve upon the DES Year 5 dark energy constraints by a factor of 2−2.5×, with the gains driven primarily by the significantly higher SN Ia density in the LSST sample. Similarly, DESI-DR3 shows up to a 1.8× improvement on dark energy parameters over DR2, driven largely by the substantial increase in the low-redshift sample. Combining CMB with LSST-Y3-SN Ia and DESI-DR3-BAO yields σ(w 0 ) = 0.028 and σ(w a ) = 0.11 for w 0 w a CDM cosmology with the results being largely independent of the CMB dataset. The constraints weaken by 10%–30% when freeing ∑m ν and spatial curvature. Moreover, the joint analysis of the three datasets can enable a 2σ–3σ detection of ∑m ν .

Raghunathan, Srinivasan [University of California;↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS1974

Planetary entry aerothermodynamics. I - Technology requirements and experimental facilities

Consideration has been given to the entry of vehicles into the atmospheres of all planets with the exception of Pluto and to missions for returning samples to Earth from all the planets (excepting Pluto), the satellites of Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn, the Moon, the asteroids, and certain comets. The efficient planning of the space missions including the appropriate design of the spacecraft requires that operational and environmental parameter values for the large range of mission options included be adequately known. The need to obtain the data required as a basis for the computational studies involved makes it necessary to conduct a comprehensive experimental research program. Details concerning the experimental facilities employed in this program are discussed, giving attention to shock tubes, the planetary-entry radiation facility, ballistic ranges, an expansion tube, a hypersonic tetrafluoromethane tunnel, and arcjet facilities.

Olstad, W. B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Space Launch System: A Heavy-Lift Platform for Entirely New Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA's) Space Launch System (SLS) will contribute a new capability for human space flight and scientific missions beyond low-Earth orbit. The SLS Program, managed at NASA s Marshall Space Fight Center, will develop the heavy-lift vehicle that will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), equipment, supplies, and major science missions. Orion will carry crews to space, provide emergency abort capability, sustain the crew during space travel, and provide safe reentry from deep-space return velocities. Supporting Orion s first autonomous flight to lunar orbit and back in 2017 and its first crewed flight in 2021, the SLS ultimately offers a flexible platform for both human and scientific exploration. The SLS plan leverages legacy infrastructure and hardware in NASA s inventory, as well as continues with advanced propulsion technologies now in development, to deliver an initial 70 metric ton (t) lift capability in 2017, evolving to a 130-t capability after 2021, using a block upgrade approach. This paper will give an overview of the SLS design and management approach against a backdrop of the missions it will support. It will detail the plan to deliver the initial SLS capability to the launch pad in the near term, as well as summarize the innovative approaches the SLS team is applying to deliver a safe, affordable, and sustainable long-range capability for entirely new missions opening a new realm of knowledge and a world of possibilities for multiple partners. Design reference missions that the SLS is being planned to support include asteroids, Lagrange Points, and Mars, among others. The Agency is developing its mission manifest in parallel with the development of a heavy-lift flagship that will dramatically increase total lift and volume capacity beyond current launch vehicle options, reduce trip times, and provide a robust platform for conducting new missions destined to rewrite textbooks with the information they deliver, while creating a framework for further collaboration among domestic and international partners, and potentially spurring economic expansion into new markets.

Creech, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA Ames' COSmIC Laboratory Astrophysics Facility: Recent Results and Progress

The COSmIC facility was developed at NASA Ames to study interstellar, circumstellar and planetary analogs in the laboratory]. COSmIC stands for "Cosmic Simulation Chamber" and is dedicated to the study of neutral and ionized molecules and nanoparticles under the low temperature and high vacuum conditions that are required to simulate space environments. COSmIC integrates a variety of instruments that allow generating; processing and monitoring simulated space conditions in the laboratory. It is composed of a Pulsed Discharge Nozzle (PDN) expansion that generates a plasma in a free supersonic jet expansion coupled to high-sensitivity, complementary in situ diagnostic tools, used for the detection and characterization of the species present in the expansion: a Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy (CRDS) and fluorescence spectroscopy systems for photonic detection, and a Reflectron Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (ReTOF-MS) for mass detection. Recent advances achieved in laboratory astrophysics using COSmIC will be presented, in particular in the domain of the diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs) and the monitoring, in the laboratory, of the formation of dust grains and aerosols from their gasphase molecular precursors in environments as varied as circumstellar outflows and planetary atmospheres. Plans for future laboratory experiments on cosmic molecules and grains in the growing field of laboratory astrophysics (NIR-MIR CRDS, Laser Induced Fluorescence spectra of cosmic molecule analogs and the laser induced incandescence spectra of cosmic grain analogs) will also be addressed as well as the implications of the on-going studies for astronomy.

Laboratory Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Embedded Sensors in Stainless Steel Test Articles and Design/Planning for MAGNET Testing

The nuclear industry is pursuing microreactors that can be factory assembled and deployed to remote regions for reliable power generation. One class of microreactors uses a monolithic metal core block coupled to heat pipes for heat rejection, which results in significant thermal stresses in the monolithic structures. This work describes the initial characterization and test plan for evaluating stainless steel test articles fabricated with embedded sensors for measuring heat pipe performance limits, as well as spatially distributed temperatures and strains during electrically heated thermal testing. The electrically heated testing will be performed in the non-nuclear Microreactor Agile Non-Nuclear Testbed and Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator facilities located at Idaho National Laboratory. The goals of these tests are to (1) accurately monitor temperature and strain distributions that result from differential thermal expansion in the test articles and (2) quantify heat rejection limits of heat pipes as a function of operating temperature and working fluid during steady-state and transient operations. More generally, the ability to monitor component and system health during microreactor operation is attractive for providing a high sensor density to inform a limited number of microreactor operators to ultimately reduce operation and maintenance costs and move toward semi-autonomous operation. This report discusses the characterization of embedded thermocouples and fiber optic sensors in relevant test articles, including cylindrical pipes and hexagonal monolithic test articles for heat pipe-based reactors. The sensors were embedded by placing them in machined channels and then building up additional material by using ultrasonic additive manufacturing (UAM). UAM is a solid-state welding process that uses downward pressure and a lateral scrubbing motion to bond thin metal foils to a base material layer by layer. The ultrasonic welding process relies on the plastic deformation of the metal—as opposed to typical melting and solidification—to break oxide scales and bond the metal layers. The characterization of these embedded sensors included evaluating fiber optic signal attenuation, observing residual strain in the fibers, investigating microstructural and mechanical aspects, and demonstrating the sensors under various thermal loads and acoustic vibrations. Post-embedding characterization showed a fine grain structure (<1 μm) near the interfaces of the bonded foils as a result of severe deformation from the welding process. A large increase in hardness was observed at the foil interfaces and the fiber/matrix interface compared with the bulk matrix. Even when compared with the SS304 interfaces, the higher hardness observed around the embedded fiber suggests a higher degree of deformation due to the soft metal coating around the silica fiber core. The distributed fiber-optic temperature sensors and embedded thermocouples reliably measured temperature distributions during steady-state and transient thermal testing. The embedded fiber-optic sensors reliably measured strain during both transient and steady-state testing and properly identified resonant frequencies during acoustic testing.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Power Systems Measurements: A Literature Review

In 2020, a literature survey was performed as part of a project aimed at producing guidance for the Department of Energy in the form of a Roadmap. The topic of the Roadmap was measurement. That was viewed as being generally underrepresented in consideration of sensing and measurement or instrumentation and measurement. Sensing is just the beginning of a process, and the instrument is just the container for the process. Measurement, the experimental process, has acquired a considerable body of theory over the last few decades, theory that is not widely taught and disseminated. The results of the survey can be said broadly to reflect that lack of appreciation. Specifically, the review found that there is support for the development of a more “capable” PMU. New algorithms and new documentary standards will be needed. Some of the findings are: (1) Point-on-wave technology adds new capability to the existing suite of measurements, and could allow for improved operation and protection (2) Power quality analysis has historically been concerned with assessment of how non-sinusoidal the delivered voltage shows promise in signature recognition, a departure from the modeling that has historically characterized power system measurements. (3) The PMU is assed as being a remarkable measurement system, but its performance is held back by the lack of understanding of the measurement theory underpinning its operation. (4) The PMU is being considered for application in the distribution system. There is a danger that it will be seen only in the light of the successful PMU implementation in transmission, and the two have different requirements. These various expansions of measurements will no doubt benefit from a better appreciation of the theoretical aspects of measurement. In this, and other, regards, our survey of the literature has identified gaps as well as possibilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Southeast Asia Solar Resource Data to Support the Clean Energy Transition in the Region

This fact sheet describes the development and release of a high-fidelity solar time series data set for the entire Southeast Asia region, which can be used to drive energy sector investment, support enabling policies to support solar energy market expansion, and inform prospecting, renewable energy auctions, target-setting, grid integration and other high impact decisions, ranging from the micro to macro scale, to accelerate renewable energy deployment throughout SE Asia. This data is available on the enhanced and expanded RE Data Explorer (RE Explorer) platform.

Advanced Energy Partnership for Asia↗

NASA NTRS2001

Finite Element Analysis of Active and Sensory Thermopiezoelectric Composite Materials

Analytical formulations are developed to account for the coupled mechanical, electrical, and thermal response of piezoelectric composite materials. The coupled response is captured at the material level through the thermopiezoelectric constitutive equations and leads to the inherent capability to model both the sensory and active responses of piezoelectric materials. A layerwise laminate theory is incorporated to provide more accurate analysis of the displacements, strains, stresses, electric fields, and thermal fields through-the-thickness. Thermal effects which arise from coefficient of thermal expansion mismatch, pyroelectric effects, and temperature dependent material properties are explicitly accounted for in the formulation. Corresponding finite element formulations are developed for piezoelectric beam, plate, and shell elements to provide a more generalized capability for the analysis of arbitrary piezoelectric composite structures. The accuracy of the current formulation is verified with comparisons from published experimental data and other analytical models. Additional numerical studies are also conducted to demonstrate additional capabilities of the formulation to represent the sensory and active behaviors. A future plan of experimental studies is provided to characterize the high temperature dynamic response of piezoelectric composite materials.

Lee, Ho-Jun↗

NASA NTRS2010

Statistical and Probabilistic Extensions to Ground Operations' Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

NASA's human exploration initiatives will invest in technologies, public/private partnerships, and infrastructure, paving the way for the expansion of human civilization into the solar system and beyond. As it is has been for the past half century, the Kennedy Space Center will be the embarkation point for humankind's journey into the cosmos. Functioning as a next generation space launch complex, Kennedy's launch pads, integration facilities, processing areas, launch and recovery ranges will bustle with the activities of the world's space transportation providers. In developing this complex, KSC teams work through the potential operational scenarios: conducting trade studies, planning and budgeting for expensive and limited resources, and simulating alternative operational schemes. Numerous tools, among them discrete event simulation (DES), were matured during the Constellation Program to conduct such analyses with the purpose of optimizing the launch complex for maximum efficiency, safety, and flexibility while minimizing life cycle costs. Discrete event simulation is a computer-based modeling technique for complex and dynamic systems where the state of the system changes at discrete points in time and whose inputs may include random variables. DES is used to assess timelines and throughput, and to support operability studies and contingency analyses. It is applicable to any space launch campaign and informs decision-makers of the effects of varying numbers of expensive resources and the impact of off nominal scenarios on measures of performance. In order to develop representative DES models, methods were adopted, exploited, or created to extend traditional uses of DES. The Delphi method was adopted and utilized for task duration estimation. DES software was exploited for probabilistic event variation. A roll-up process was used, which was developed to reuse models and model elements in other less - detailed models. The DES team continues to innovate and expand DES capabilities to address KSC's planning needs.

Trocine, Linda↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ontario International Airport Fleet Electrification Blueprint: Zero-Emission Vehicle Technology Assessment for Energy Optimization [Slides]

Ontario International Airport Authority (OIAA)'s Electric Vehicle (EV) Blueprint project presentation focuses on the possibilities for fleet electrification, including medium heavy duty charging and hydrogen refueling and their associated planning, infrastructure, operation, and maintenance options. This report includes detailed list of available electric ground support equipment (GSE), description of NREL tools for EV infrastructure design and optimization, and analyses of the current fleet and the potential grid impacts of electrification. Key recommendations are made in regard to simulation-based and in-depth system analyses to identify optimal charging infrastructure and long-term grid stability, and to ensure that the selected station architecture will provide enough space and capacity for future expansion and resiliency.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Interplay Between Climate and Urban Expansion on Building Energy Demand in Morocco

Understanding building energy demand is critical for addressing climate uncertainty challenges and ensuring sustainable urban growth. This study develops a building energy demand (BED) model to explore how climate variation and urban expansion affect residential and commercial space heating and cooling demands in Morocco for three scenarios, namely, 2005, 2018, and 2018 + 1.5 °C. The results show that coastal cities have lower heating and cooling needs due to the oceanic influence, while interior cities require significantly higher heating demand per-unit-floorspace. Between 2005 and 2018, urban growth increased total heating and cooling demand by 218.8 GWh, particularly in northern and coastal regions, despite per-unit-floorspace reductions in milder climates and improved building efficiency in 2018. Residential heating remains the dominant energy use, though commercial demand is significant in urban centers. Under the 2018 + 1.5 °C hypothetical scenario, heating demand across Morocco declines by 335.8 GWh compared to 2018, with urban areas amplifying this trend. Meanwhile, cooling demand increases slightly by 44.4 GWh, with major cities experiencing relative increases of up to 50%. These findings highlight a trade-off where reduced winter heating needs are partly offset by increased summer cooling demands in densely urbanized areas. In conclusion, the study identifies key urban hotspots for targeted interventions, emphasizing the need for energy-efficient building designs, climate-adaptive urban planning, and resilient energy management strategies to sustainably address shifting seasonal energy patterns.

Morocco↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗