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At least 595 records · Page 33

Error enhancement in geomagnetic models derived from scalar data

Models of the main geomagnetic field are generally represented by a scalar potential gamma expanded in a finite number of spherical harmonics. Very accurate observations of F were used, but indications exist that the accuracy of models derived from them is considerably lower. One problem is that F does not always characterize gamma uniquely. It is not clear whether such ambiguity can be encountered in deriving gamma from F in geomagnetic surveys, but there exists a connection, due to the fact that the counterexamples of Backus are related to the dipole field, while the geomagnetic field is dominated by its dipole component. If the models are recovered with a finite error (i.e. they cannot completely fit the data and consequently have a small spurious component), this connection allows the error in certain sequences of harmonic terms in gamma to be enhanced without unduly large effects on the fit of F to the model.

Stern, D. P.↗

Upper bounds on sequential decoding performance parameters

This paper presents the best obtainable random coding and expurgated upper bounds on the probabilities of undetectable error, of t-order failure (advance to depth t into an incorrect subset), and of likelihood rise in the incorrect subset, applicable to sequential decoding when the metric bias G is arbitrary. Upper bounds on the Pareto exponent are also presented. The G-values optimizing each of the parameters of interest are determined, and are shown to lie in intervals that in general have nonzero widths. The G-optimal expurgated bound on undetectable error is shown to agree with that for maximum likelihood decoding of convolutional codes, and that on failure agrees with the block code expurgated bound. Included are curves evaluating the bounds for interesting choices of G and SNR for a binary-input quantized-output Gaussian additive noise channel.

Jelinek, F.↗

A unified development of several techniques for the representation of random vectors and data sets

Linear vector space theory is used to develop a general representation of a set of data vectors or random vectors by linear combinations of orthonormal vectors such that the mean squared error of the representation is minimized. The orthonormal vectors are shown to be the eigenvectors of an operator. The general representation is applied to several specific problems involving the use of the Karhunen-Loeve expansion, principal component analysis, and empirical orthogonal functions; and the common properties of these representations are developed.

Bundick, W. T.↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

ALDF Data Retrieval Algorithms for Validating the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)

A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from in Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing, and arrival time of lightning radio emissions and solutions for the plane (i.e.. no Earth curvature) are provided that implement all of these measurements. The accuracy of the retrieval method is tested using computer-simulated data sets and the relative influence of bearing and arrival time data on the outcome of the final solution is formally demonstrated. The algorithm is sufficiently accurate to validate NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging System (LIS). We also introduce a quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in source location. Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. For arbitrary noncollinear network geometries and in the absence of measurement errors, it is shown that the two quadratic roots are equivalent (no source location ambiguity) on the outer sensor baselines. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer-generated data sets and the results are generally better than those obtained from the three station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 degrees.

Koshak, W. J.↗

Error mitigation, optimization, and extrapolation on a trapped-ion testbed

Current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) trapped-ion devices are subject to errors which can significantly impact the accuracy of calculations if left unchecked. A form of error mitigation called zero noise extrapolation (ZNE) can decrease an algorithm’s sensitivity to these errors without increasing the number of required qubits. Here we explore different methods for integrating this error mitigation technique into the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) algorithm for calculating the ground state of the HeH + molecule at 0.8 Å in the presence of experimental noise. Using the Quantum Scientific Computing Open User Testbed (QSCOUT) trapped-ion device, we test three methods of scaling noise for extrapolation: time stretching the two-qubit gates, scaling the sideband detuning parameter, and inserting two-qubit gate identity operations into the ansatz circuit. We find that time stretching and sideband detuning scaling fail to scale the noise on our particular hardware in a way that can be extrapolated to zero noise. Scaling our noise with global gate identity insertions and extrapolating after variational optimization, we achieve error suppression of 96.8%, resulting in an energy estimate within –0.004 ± 0.04 hartree of the ground state energy. This is an improvement, but still outside the chemical accuracy threshold of 0.0016 hartree. Furthermore, our results show that the efficacy of this error mitigation technique depends on choosing the correct implementation for a given device architecture.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Image Correlation Pattern Optimization for Micro-Scale In-Situ Strain Measurements

The accuracy and precision of digital image correlation (DIC) is a function of three primary ingredients: image acquisition, image analysis, and the subject of the image. Development of the first two (i.e. image acquisition techniques and image correlation algorithms) has led to widespread use of DIC; however, fewer developments have been focused on the third ingredient. Typically, subjects of DIC images are mechanical specimens with either a natural surface pattern or a pattern applied to the surface. Research in the area of DIC patterns has primarily been aimed at identifying which surface patterns are best suited for DIC, by comparing patterns to each other. Because the easiest and most widespread methods of applying patterns have a high degree of randomness associated with them (e.g., airbrush, spray paint, particle decoration, etc.), less effort has been spent on exact construction of ideal patterns. With the development of patterning techniques such as microstamping and lithography, patterns can be applied to a specimen pixel by pixel from a patterned image. In these cases, especially because the patterns are reused many times, an optimal pattern is sought such that error introduced into DIC from the pattern is minimized. DIC consists of tracking the motion of an array of nodes from a reference image to a deformed image. Every pixel in the images has an associated intensity (grayscale) value, with discretization depending on the bit depth of the image. Because individual pixel matching by intensity value yields a non-unique scale-dependent problem, subsets around each node are used for identification. A correlation criteria is used to find the best match of a particular subset of a reference image within a deformed image. The reader is referred to references for enumerations of typical correlation criteria. As illustrated by Schreier and Sutton and Lu and Cary systematic errors can be introduced by representing the underlying deformation with under-matched shape functions. An important implication, as discussed by Sutton et al., is that in the presence of highly localized deformations (e.g., crack fronts), error can be reduced by minimizing the subset size. In other words, smaller subsets allow the more accurate resolution of localized deformations. Contrarily, the choice of optimal subset size has been widely studied and a general consensus is that larger subsets with more information content are less prone to random error. Thus, an optimal subset size balances the systematic error from under matched deformations with random error from measurement noise. The alternative approach pursued in the current work is to choose a small subset size and optimize the information content within (i.e., optimizing an applied DIC pattern), rather than finding an optimal subset size. In the literature, many pattern quality metrics have been proposed, e.g., sum of square intensity gradient (SSSIG), mean subset fluctuation, gray level co-occurrence, autocorrelation-based metrics, and speckle-based metrics. The majority of these metrics were developed to quantify the quality of common pseudo-random patterns after they have been applied, and were not created with the intent of pattern generation. As such, it is found that none of the metrics examined in this study are fit to be the objective function of a pattern generation optimization. In some cases, such as with speckle-based metrics, application to pixel by pixel patterns is ill-conditioned and requires somewhat arbitrary extensions. In other cases, such as with the SSSIG, it is shown that trivial solutions exist for the optimum of the metric which are ill-suited for DIC (such as a checkerboard pattern). In the current work, a multi-metric optimization method is proposed whereby quality is viewed as a combination of individual quality metrics. Specifically, SSSIG and two auto-correlation metrics are used which have generally competitive objectives. Thus, each metric could be viewed as a constraint imposed upon the others, thereby precluding the achievement of their trivial solutions. In this way, optimization produces a pattern which balances the benefits of multiple quality metrics. The resulting pattern, along with randomly generated patterns, is subjected to numerical deformations and analyzed with DIC software. The optimal pattern is shown to outperform randomly generated patterns.

Bomarito, G. F.↗

Objective sea level pressure analysis for sparse data areas

A computer procedure was used to analyze the pressure distribution over the North Pacific Ocean for eleven synoptic times in February, 1967. Independent knowledge of the central pressures of lows is shown to reduce the analysis errors for very sparse data coverage. The application of planned remote sensing of sea-level wind speeds is shown to make a significant contribution to the quality of the analysis especially in the high gradient mid-latitudes and for sparse coverage of conventional observations (such as over Southern Hemisphere oceans). Uniform distribution of the available observations of sea-level pressure and wind velocity yields results far superior to those derived from a random distribution. A generalization of the results indicates that the average lower limit for analysis errors is between 2 and 2.5 mb based on the perfect specification of the magnitude of the sea-level pressure gradient from a known verification analysis. A less than perfect specification will derive from wind-pressure relationships applied to satellite observed wind speeds.

Druyan, L. M.↗

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗

Experiments in monthly mean simulation of the atmosphere with a coarse-mesh general circulation model

The Hansen atmospheric model was used to compute five monthly forecasts (October 1976 through February 1977). The comparison is based on an energetics analysis, meridional and vertical profiles, error statistics, and prognostic and observed mean maps. The monthly mean model simulations suffer from several defects. There is, in general, no skill in the simulation of the monthly mean sea-level pressure field, and only marginal skill is indicated for the 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights. The coarse-mesh model appears to generate a less satisfactory monthly mean simulation than the finer mesh GISS model.

Lutz, R. J.↗

Human operator response to error-likely situations in complex engineering systems

The causes of human error in complex systems are examined. First, a conceptual framework is provided in which two broad categories of error are discussed: errors of action, or slips, and errors of intention, or mistakes. Conditions in which slips and mistakes might be expected to occur are identified, based on existing theories of human error. Regarding the role of workload, it is hypothesized that workload may act as a catalyst for error. Two experiments are presented in which humans' response to error-likely situations were examined. Subjects controlled PLANT under a variety of conditions and periodically provided subjective ratings of mental effort. A complex pattern of results was obtained, which was not consistent with predictions. Generally, the results of this research indicate that: (1) humans respond to conditions in which errors might be expected by attempting to reduce the possibility of error, and (2) adaptation to conditions is a potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations. Subjects' explanations for changes in effort ratings are also explored.

Morris, Nancy M.↗

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) onboard attitude determination using a Kalman filter

The Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) requires a highly accurate knowledge of its attitude to accomplish its mission. Propagation of the attitude state using gyro measurements is not sufficient to meet the accuracy requirements, and must be supplemented by a observer/compensation process to correct for dynamics and observation anomalies. The process of amending the attitude state utilizes a well known method, the discrete Kalman Filter. This study is a sensitivity analysis of the discrete Kalman Filter as implemented in the UARS Onboard Computer (OBC). The stability of the Kalman Filter used in the normal on-orbit control mode within the OBC, is investigated for the effects of corrupted observations and nonlinear errors. Also, a statistical analysis on the residuals of the Kalman Filter is performed. These analysis is based on simulations using the UARS Dynamics Simulator (UARSDSIM) and compared against attitude requirements as defined by General Electric (GE). An independent verification of expected accuracies is performed using the Attitude Determination Error Analysis System (ADEAS).

Garrick, Joseph↗

Representativity error scaling of models of the high temperature test facility

Error scaling is a critical step toward the validation of modeling capabilities for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). Extensive effort is being made to bring HTGRs into the validation basis of numerous thermal-hydraulics codes. Here, this paper demonstrates how systems-level codes can be leveraged to perform error scaling analyses between an experimental facility and a plant-to-be facility. Specifically, we focus on two conduction cooldown experiments from the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) and the General Atomics 350 MW th modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR-350). The error scaling methodology employed in this study is representativity, which in the context of this work was used to quantify how well experiments captured the physics of the plant facility by comparing sensitivity vectors between the two facilities. In addition, two different RELAP5–3D models of the HTTF were included in the comparison to determine if modeling methodologies notably impact the representativity results. The key figures of merit are the maximum block temperature and the coolant outlet temperature. The time-dependent maximum block temperature had a low representativity of below 0.1 for both models across both transients. The coolant outlet temperature had a higher representativity of around 0.6 for both models during the pressurized conduction cooldown, but it was below 0.2 for the depressurized conduction cooldown. Overall, the HTTF experiments were not representative of the transients in the MHTGR-350. However, these results can play a significant role in informing future potential experiments for HTGR systems that iterate on what the HTTF accomplished.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Lightning Radio Source Retrieval Using Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) Networks

A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from an Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing and arrival time of lightning radio emissions. Solutions for the plane (i.e., no Earth curvature) are provided that implement all of tile measurements mentioned above. Tests of the retrieval method are provided using computer-simulated data sets. We also introduce a quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in source location. Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. In the absence of measurement errors, quadratic root degeneracy (no source location ambiguity) is shown to exist exactly on the outer sensor baselines for arbitrary non-collinear network geometries. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer generated data sets. The results are generally better than those obtained from the three station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 deg. We also note some of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods over the nonlinear method of chi(sup 2) minimization employed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and discussed in Cummins et al.(1993, 1995, 1998).

Koshak, William J.↗

A Systems Modeling Approach for Risk Management of Command File Errors

The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate risk management. Formal models can be used for risk based design and risk management. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.

probabilistic risk↗

Practical robustness measures in multivariable control system analysis

The robustness of the stability of multivariable linear time invariant feedback control systems with respect to model uncertainty is considered using frequency domain criteria. Available robustness tests are unified under a common framework based on the nature and structure of model errors. These results are derived using a multivariable version of Nyquist's stability theorem in which the minimum singular value of the return difference transfer matrix is shown to be the multivariable generalization of the distance to the critical point on a single input, single output Nyquist diagram. Using the return difference transfer matrix, a very general robustness theorem is presented from which all of the robustness tests dealing with specific model errors may be derived. The robustness tests that explicitly utilized model error structure are able to guarantee feedback system stability in the face of model errors of larger magnitude than those robustness tests that do not. The robustness of linear quadratic Gaussian control systems are analyzed.

Lehtomaki, N. A.↗

Observations of "Hystereris" in Backscattered Ultraviolet Ozone Data

The backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) technique has been used for almost 3 decades to monitor global total ozone and the distribution of ozone in the stratosphere. Satellite BUV measurements in the 250-340 mn wavelength region are technically challenging because the Earth's radiance varies by approximately 4 orders of magnitude during a single scan. Further, the observed signal increases by over three orders of magnitude in about 2 minutes as the satellite emerges into daylight. The gain of the instrument's photomultiplier tube (PMT) detector is low when the spacecraft first emerges into the sunlit portion of the orbit relative to the gain observed after the PMT has experienced moderately high current levels. This "hysteresis" effect was first observed on the Nimbus-7 SBUV and TOMS instruments. The effect is difficult to characterize prelaunch because of the high signal levels and rapid variations required. We have recently observed and quantified the hysteresis effect for the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument, which collected ozone data from February 1985 to February 1998. The instrument gain is observed to be up to 3% low at high solar zenith angles [Chi = 85-90 degrees] in the emergent hemisphere (i.e. Southern Hemisphere at launch). The gain error decreases as the SZA decreases and average PMT current increases, and is generally negligible for Chi < 65 degrees. The magnitude of the hysteresis effect varies with season, and exhibits long-term changes as the NOAA-9 sun-synchronous orbit drifts. In the latter portion of the record, when the spacecraft emerged from the dark in the Northern Hemisphere, hysteresis effects were then observed in the North. NOAA-9 total ozone errors due to the hysteresis effect are typically on the order of 2%, but can reach 5% in extreme cases. We have developed a quantitative correction for the hysteresis effect that incorporates both seasonal and long-term variations in magnitude. Results of similar analyses for the NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 SBUV/2 instruments will also be discussed. The characterization of the hysteresis effect in high solar zenith angle SBUV/2 ozone data represents a significant step towards reconciling polar ozone measurements from different satellite instruments.

DeLand, Matthew T.↗

Data Retrieval Algorithms for Validating the Optical Transient Detector and the Lightning Imaging Sensor

A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from an Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing, and arrival time of lightning radio emissions. Solutions for the plane (i.e., no earth curvature) are provided that implement all of these measurements. The accuracy of the retrieval method is tested using computer-simulated datasets, and the relative influence of bearing and arrival time data an the outcome of the final solution is formally demonstrated. The algorithm is sufficiently accurate to validate NASA:s Optical Transient Detector and Lightning Imaging Sensor. A quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available is also introduced. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in sc)iirce location, Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. For arbitrary noncollinear network geometries and in the absence of measurement errors, it is shown that the two quadratic roots are equivalent (no source location ambiguity) on the outer sensor baselines. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer-generated datasets, and the results are generally better than those obtained from the three-station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 deg.

Koshak, W. J.↗