Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Geological Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

DOE SFWST Campaign R&D Roadmap Update Rev.1.

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Departmentof Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition(SFWD) is conducting research and development (R&D) on deep geologic disposal of spentnuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). R&D addressing the disposal ofSNF/HLW in the U.S. is currently generic (i.e., "non-site-specific") in scope, following thesuspension of the Yucca Mountain Repository Project in 2010. However, to prepare for theeventuality of a repository siting process, the former Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) ofDOE-NE, which was succeeded by the SFWST Campaign, formulated an R&D Roadmap in 2012outlining generic R&D activities and their priorities appropriate for developing safety cases andassociated performance assessment (PA) models for generic deep geologic repositories in severalpotential host-rock environments in the contiguous United States. This 2012 UFDC Roadmap alsoidentified the importance of re-evaluating priorities in future years as knowledge is gained fromthe DOE's ongoing R&D activities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2019

DOE SFWST Campaign R&D Roadmap Update

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) is conducting research and development (R&D) on deep geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). R&D addressing the disposal of SNF/HLW in the U.S. is currently generic (i.e., "non-site-specific") in scope, following the suspension of the Yucca Mountain Repository Project in 2010. However, to prepare for the eventuality of a repository siting process, the former Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) of DOE-NE, which was succeeded by the SFWST Campaign, formulated an R&D Roadmap in 2012 outlining generic R&D activities and their priorities appropriate for developing safety cases and associated performance assessment (PA) models for generic deep geologic repositories in several potential host-rock environments in the contiguous United States. This 2012 UFDC Roadmap also identified the importance of re-evaluating priorities in future years as knowledge is gained from the DOE's ongoing R&D activities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Brachiopod δ 34 S CAS microanalyses indicate a dynamic, climate-influenced Permo-Carboniferous sulfur cycle

Early isotopic studies of sulfate in carbonate minerals (carbonate associated sulfate; CAS) suggested that carbonates can provide a reliable, well-dated archive of the marine sulfur cycle through time. However, subsequent research has shown that diagenetic alteration can impose highly heterogeneous CAS sulfur isotopic compositions (δ 34 S CAS ) among different carbonate phases within sediments. Such alteration necessitates targeted sampling of well-preserved, primary carbonate phases. Here, we present a new record of Carboniferous and Early Permian brachiopod δ 34 S CAS generated from over 130 measurements of microsampled brachiopod shells. Our record refines existing brachiopod δ 34 S CAS records and confirms a large, ~6.5‰ δ 34 S CAS decrease in the Early Carboniferous. Importantly, the record also features a novel 3–5‰ increase in δ 34 S CAS near the Serpukhovian-Bashkirian boundary (323.4 Ma) that coincides with carbonate δ 13 C and δ 18 O increases. Variability in δ 34 S CAS is minor both within (≤0.3‰) and among (≤2‰) individual co-depositional brachiopod specimens. A taxon-specific δ 34 S CAS offset is present one species (Composita subtilita) that also exhibits a δ 13 C offset, supporting the existence of biological “vital effects” on δ 34 S CAS . Geologic evidence and mathematical modeling of the Permo-Carboniferous carbon and sulfur cycles suggest that changes in the burial ratio of organic carbon to pyrite sulfur (R C:S ) are insufficient to explain the observed mid-Carboniferous δ 34 S CAS record. We find that changes in the 34 S depletion of pyrite relative to seawater sulfate ( 34 ε) or in the δ 34 S of the input to the ocean (δ 34 S in ) are also needed. Large additions of O 2 from organic carbon burial during the Permo-Carboniferous cannot be entirely compensated for with sulfur cycle changes; lower than modern late Visean pO 2 and/or additional O 2 sinks are needed to keep pO 2 at plausible levels. Based on the geologic context surrounding our record's mid-Carboniferous δ 34 S CAS increase, we advocate for simultaneous changes in pyrite burial, 34 ε, and δ 34 S in , driven by sea level or tectonically induced changes in environments of sulfur burial, as a viable mechanism to produce rapid seawater δ 34 S changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Surrogate Model Development of Spent Fuel Degradation for Repository Performance Assessment

In model simulations of deep geologic repositories, UO 2 fuel matrix degradation typically begins as soon as the waste package breaches and groundwater contacts the fuel surface. The initial degradation rate depends on the timing of these events, burnup of the fuel, temperature, and concentrations of dissolved reactants. Estimating the initial rate of degradation is fairly straightforward, but as UO 2 corrosion products precipitate on the fuel surface and the movement of dissolved species between the fuel surface and environment is impeded by the precipitated solids, the rate is more difficult to quantify. At that point, calculating the degradation rate becomes a reactive-transport problem in which a large number of equations must be solved by iteration for a large number of grid cells at each time step. The consequence is that repository simulations, which are already expensive, become much more expensive, especially when hundreds or thousands of waste packages breach. The Fuel Matrix Degradation (FMD) model is the process model of the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign of the US Department of Energy (DOE). It calculates spent fuel degradation rates as a function of radiolysis, redox reactions, electrochemical reactions, alteration layer growth, and diffusion of reactants through the alteration layer. Like other similar fuel degradation process models, it is a complicated model requiring a large number of calculations and iterations at each time step.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatially Dependent Seismic Wavefield Scattering from an Underground Chemical Explosion: Analysis of the Source Physics Experiment Dry Alluvium Geology Large- N Array

Explosion sources have been observed to generate significant shear‐wave energy despite their isotropic nature. To investigate this phenomenon, we conduct an analysis of the seismic data collected as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE): Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) and investigate the generation of shear‐wave energy via scattering. The data were produced by three underground chemical explosions and consist of three‐component seismograms, which were recorded by the DAG Large‐N array. Synthetic tests suggest that for the DAG experiments, small‐scale stochastic heterogeneities, defined as features with correlation lengths of 10–100s of meters, are more effective than large‐scale geologic structure (scales >1–10 km) at reproducing the scattering of explosion generated wavefields observed at DAG. We analyze the seismic data for spatially variable ratios between transversely and radially polarized seismic energy, and then estimate the mean free path of P and S waves. All analyses are conducted within a frequency band of 5–50 Hz. The ratio of transversely to radially polarized energy is the highest in the east and west portion of the Large‐N array. In addition, the magnitude of the estimated S‐wave mean free path is shorter in the eastern portion of the Large‐N array. This variation indicates that the eastern area of the DAG array is where more scattering is occurring, suggesting azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐P and P‐to‐S scattering. Furthermore, this azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐S scattering can have implications for explosion discrimination based on spectral ratios of seismic wave types, because the general assumption is that explosions do not generate shear‐wave energy. Synthetic tests modeling only larger‐scale geologic structure had lower transversely polarized energy (only four stations showing a transversely to radially polarized energy ratio greater than 1) and fewer stations (<10) displaying shorter (<300 m) mean free paths than what was observed in the DAG data results.

Darrh, Andréa Nicole↗
NASA NTRS2018

Early Earth and Rocky Extrasolar Planet Characterization

Scientists are currently designing instruments, telescopes, and spacecraft to search for evidence of life beyond Earth. This search for life beyond Earth comes with an expectation to detect life that is different than the life found on modern-day Earth. But scientists will also be expected to provide compelling proof behind any claims that we are not alone. These two expectations are seemingly at odds with each other, because it will be easiest to provide compelling evidence for life when we have a deep understanding of the life we are looking at.The study of Earth history provides a means to reconcile this tension. Different periods of Earth history present us with biospheres that are dramatically different from modern-day Earth, but for which we have abundant data. This informs our understanding of habitability, because of the variety of global chemical and climatic conditions in Earth history for which we know life has thrived. The study of Earth history also informs our understanding of how to detect life; as the global influences of life have completely changed, so have the detectable features of Earth's biosphere.The appreciation of our home planet as a tightly coupled system also provides us top-level lessons for how to search for an even broader set of biospheres with a wider variety of detectable features. The study of Earth history has taught us that life is a both a function of and critical forcing on the planetary environment. Numerical models of these interactions can by driven by our understanding of Earth history, and be validated against the geological and geochemical data. These models can then be applied to a wider variety of planetary conditions. This will help scientists determine what kinds of life are possible, and eventually help them recognize and confirm the presence of life on rocky planets around other stars.

Domagal-Goldman, Shawn D.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Groundwater management of a highly dynamic karst by assessing baseflow and quickflow with a rainfall-discharge model (Dardennes springs, SE France)

This paper aims at characterizing the groundwater flow in a highly dynamic karst aquifer using a global modeling approach based on rainfall and spring discharge time series. The Dardennes aquifer (SE France) was studied as it is used for drinking water supply and it also produces karst flash floods that increase the flood hazard downstream in urban areas. Three years of data were available, including a normal rainy year, a wet year and a dry year. Modeling was performed with the new platform KarstMod, a rainfall-discharge model with calibration tools. The Dardennes aquifer model was structured with three interconnected reservoirs: Epikarst, Matrix, and Conduit. Using this modeling approach, we were able to determine the groundwater hydrograph separation of the karst spring discharge, at the annual scale and at the event scale (flood). This gives insight into the low flow (Matrix) available for the drinking water demand and the fast flow (Conduit) that generates flash floods. In such a dynamic aquifer, part of the water budget cannot be accounted for by water resources as fast flow is not stored within the aquifer and is not available for the drinking water demand. The results were compared with the current groundwater management to determine whether the withdrawal is sustainable. Depending on whether it is a wet or a dry year, the proportion of slow flow ranges from 27 to 61% of the total discharge, respectively. During floods in high water periods, the proportion of quickflow increases drastically up to more than 90% of the spring discharge. In the case of a 300 mm/d simulated Mediterranean rainfall event, the mean daily peak value may reach 74 m 3 /s. This discharge can be reduced if the aquifer is previously depleted, which increases the storage within the aquifer. Coupling the geological context and the model results opens up future perspectives for the active management of the karst aquifer.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Enhanced Oil Recovery Using Carbon Dioxide in Michigan Basin Silurian Pinnacle Reefs

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) has incorporated the work of geologic research teams (Geoteams) in its regional characterization, project planning and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection implementation work since the partnership was established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2003. Over this 16-year period, the cohort of Geoteams has grown from five to ten states and has contributed to the characterization of geologic sequestration opportunities, refinement of reservoir and seal data, and supported injection efforts through both predictive and post-injection assessments. The Michigan team at Western Michigan University has provided technical analysis and support of the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the Northern Michigan Silurian Pinnacle reefs. With Core Energy, LLC as the industry partner, this project has assessed the potential for EOR in known fields in the Michigan Pinnacle reefs and the capacity for CO2 storage in the reef reservoirs as they are depleted and after reservoir abandonment. This project managed by Core Energy, LLC, involves the only commercial CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery floods within the MRCSP region. The Silurian pinnacle reef trend shows significant potential for CO 2 -EOR: this play is relatively new, with approximately 60% of the wells in the largest Niagaran fields still accessible. Most wells have modern logs and there are many cores, core analyses, pressure tests and produced water analyses available for study from these fields. These carbonate reservoirs in Michigan have produced sufficient oil to warrant evaluation for additional recovery efforts. The role of the Michigan team was to collect and analyze all relevant data about reservoir properties, including lithologic and depositional characteristics of the reservoir formations and porosity and fluid flow properties through different compartments in the reservoir. The team has also developed models that represent the geological and physical characteristics of the reservoir and seal system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2016

87 Sr/ 86 Sr Concentrations in the Appalachian Basin: A Review

This document reviews 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isotope data across the Appalachian Basin from existing literature to show spatial and temporal variation. Isotope geochemistry presents a means of understanding the geochemical effects hydraulic fracturing may have on shallow ground substrates. Isotope fractionation is a naturally occurring phenomenon brought about by physical, chemical, and biological processes that partition isotopes between substances; therefore, stable isotope geochemistry allows geoscientists to understand several processes that shape the natural world. Strontium isotopes can be used as a tool to answer an array of geological and environmental inquiries. In some cases, strontium isotopes are sensitive to the introduction of a non-native fluid into a system. This ability allows strontium isotopes to serve as tracers in certain systems. Recently, it has been demonstrated that strontium isotopes can serve as a monitoring tool for groundwater and surface water systems that may be affected by hydraulic fracturing fluids (Chapman et al., 2013; Kolesar Kohl et al., 2014). These studies demonstrated that 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values have the potential to monitor subsurface fluid migration in regions where extraction of Marcellus Shale gas is occurring. This document reviews publicly available strontium isotope data from 39 sample locations in the Appalachian Basin (Hamel et al., 2010; Chapman et al., 2012; Osborn et al., 2012; Chapman et al., 2013; Capo et al., 2014; Kolesar Kohl et al., 2014). The data is divided into two sets: stratigraphic (Upper Devonian/Lower Mississippi, Middle Devonian, and Silurian) and groundwater. ArcMap™ (ESRI, Inc.) was used to complete inverse distance weighting (IDW) analyses for each dataset to create interpolated surfaces in an attempt to find regional trends or variations in strontium isotopic values across the Appalachian Basin. 87 Sr/ 86 Sr varies up to ~ 0.011 across the Appalachian Basin, but the current publicly available data is limited in frequency and regional extent, causing artifacts and high uncertainty when interpolating data for locations far from sampling sites. These factors highlight the need for additional strontium isotope sampling across the region. Identifying potential contamination from hydraulic fracturing fluid in Appalachian Basin groundwater using strontium isotopes would require additional sampling. For a more comprehensive strontium isotope database, samples would need to be collected during prefracturing, syn-fracturing, and post-fracturing stages. This would add a temporal component to the spatial data and make tracing of fluid migration with strontium isotopes more accurate. Future research and modeling that incorporates subsurface geology and watershed data would also serve to increase the accuracy and certainty of the interpolations of these analyses. Prospective geospatial Appalachian Basin isotope studies would also benefit from the integration of geologic mapping because surface and subsurface geology influences observed strontium isotope values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Non-stationary Geostatistical Modeling: A Case Study Comparing LVA Estimation Frameworks

Incorporating locally varying anisotropy (LVA) in geostatistical modeling improves estimates for structurally complex domains where a single set of anisotropic parameters modeled globally do not account for all geological features. In this work, the properties of two LVA-geostatistical modeling frameworks are explored through application to a complexly folded gold deposit in Ghana. The inference of necessary parameters is a significant requirement of geostatistical modeling with LVA; this work focuses on the case where LVA orientations, derived from expert geological interpretation, are used to improve the grade estimates. The different methodologies for inferring the required parameters in this context are explored. The results of considering different estimation frameworks and alternate methods of parameterization are evaluated with a cross-validation study, as well as visual inspection of grade continuity along select cross sections. Results show that stationary methodologies are outperformed by all LVA techniques, even when the LVA framework has minimal guidance on parameterization. Findings also show that additional improvements are gained by considering parameter inference where the LVA orientations and point data are used to infer the local range of anisotropy. Considering LVA for geostatistical modeling of the deposit considered in this work results in better reproduction of curvilinear geological features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories based on three design factors - Decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer and double-layer concept

This study investigates the enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories (DGRs) based on three design factors: decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer, and double-layer concept using coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical simulations. Decay heat optimization is achieved by iteratively emplacing spent nuclear fuels having the maximum and minimum decay heat in a canister. Disposal areas can be reduced by 20 % to 40 % compared to the current reference disposal system in Korea (KRS+) in accordance with the combinations of the three design factors, alleviating challenges in site selection for the DGR. This study additionally identifies an optimal layer spacing of 500 m for the double-layer concept in the viewpoint of the buffer temperature, where thermal interaction between the upper and lower layers nearly disappears. However, determining the ultimate disposal and layer spacing requires engineering judgement, considering not only the thermal performance of the DGR but also various factors such as cost and difficulties of the construction and rock mass stability. DGRs designed with an increased thermal limit of the buffer poses a greater probability of rock mass failure around disposal tunnels and deposition holes due to elevated thermal stresses. Densely arranged heat sources for the DGRs with enhanced disposal efficiency lead to larger temperature increase even at the far-field scale, raising a possibility of thermally driven fracture shear activation with associated hydraulic, mechanical, and seismic changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Testing the suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic properties across regional scales

The suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic conductivity (K) to length scales commensurate with hydraulic data is difficult to assess. A novel method is presented for evaluating assumed relations between K and geologic interpretations for regional-scale groundwater modeling. The approach relies on simultaneous interpretation of multiple aquifer tests using alternative geologic frameworks of variable complexity, where each framework is incorporated as prior information that assumes homogeneous K within each model unit. This approach is tested at Pahute Mesa within the Nevada National Security Site (USA), where observed drawdowns from eight aquifer tests in complex, highly faulted volcanic rocks provide the necessary hydraulic constraints. The investigated volume encompasses 40 mi3 (167 km3) where drawdowns traversed major fault structures and were detected more than 2 mi (3.2 km) from pumping wells. Complexity of the five frameworks assessed ranges from an undifferentiated mass of rock with a single unit to 14 distinct geologic units. Results show that only four geologic units can be justified as hydraulically unique for this location. The approach qualitatively evaluates the consistency of hydraulic property estimates within extents of investigation and effects of geologic frameworks on extrapolation. Distributions of transmissivity are similar within the investigated extents irrespective of the geologic framework. In contrast, the extrapolation of hydraulic properties beyond the volume investigated with interfering aquifer tests is strongly affected by the complexity of a given framework. As a result, testing at Pahute Mesa illustrates how this method can be employed to determine the appropriate level of geologic complexity for large-scale groundwater modeling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Discrete Regularization for Calibration of Geologic Facies Against Dynamic Flow Data

Abstract Subsurface flow model calibration involves many more unknowns than measurements, leading to ill‐posed problems with nonunique solutions. To alleviate nonuniqueness, the problem is regularized by constraining the solution space using prior knowledge. In certain sedimentary environments, such as fluvial systems, the contrast in hydraulic properties of different facies types tends to dominate the flow and transport behavior, making the effect of within facies heterogeneity less significant. Hence, flow model calibration in those formations reduces to delineating the spatial structure and connectivity of different lithofacies types and their boundaries. A major difficulty in calibrating such models is honoring the discrete, or piecewise constant, nature of facies distribution. The problem becomes more challenging when complex spatial connectivity patterns with higher‐order statistics are involved. This paper introduces a novel formulation for calibration of complex geologic facies by imposing appropriate constraints to recover plausible solutions that honor the spatial connectivity and discreteness of facies models. To incorporate prior connectivity patterns, plausible geologic features are learned from available training models. This is achieved by learning spatial patterns from training data, e.g., ‐SVD sparse learning or the traditional Principal Component Analysis. Discrete regularization is introduced as a penalty functions to impose solution discreteness while minimizing the mismatch between observed and predicted data. An efficient gradient‐based alternating directions algorithm is combined with variable splitting to minimize the resulting regularized nonlinear least squares objective function. Numerical results show that imposing learned facies connectivity and discreteness as regularization functions leads to geologically consistent solutions that improve facies calibration quality.

Khaninezhad, Mohammad‐Reza↗
DOE OSTI2017

Constraining the Magmatic System at Mount St. Helens (2004-2008) Using Bayesian Inversion With Physics-Based Models Including Gas Escape and Crystallization

Physics-based models of volcanic eruptions track conduit processes as functions of depth and time. When used in inversions, these models permit integration of diverse geological and geophysical data sets to constrain important parameters of magmatic systems. We develop a 1-D steady state conduit model for effusive eruptions including equilibrium crystallization and gas transport through the conduit and compare with the quasi-steady dome growth phase of Mount St. Helens in 2005. Viscosity increase resulting from pressure-dependent crystallization leads to a natural transition from viscous flow to frictional sliding on the conduit margin. Erupted mass flux depends strongly on wall rock and magma permeabilities due to their impact on magma density. Including both lateral and vertical gas transport reveals competing effects that produce nonmonotonic behavior in the mass flux when increasing magma permeability. Using this physics-based model in a Bayesian inversion, we link data sets from Mount St. Helens such as extrusion flux and earthquake depths with petrological data to estimate unknown model parameters, including magma chamber pressure and water content, magma permeability constants, conduit radius, and friction along the conduit walls. Even with this relatively simple model and limited data, we obtain improved constraints on important model parameters. We find that the magma chamber had low (<5 wt %) total volatiles and that the magma permeability scale is well constrained at ~10 –11.4 m 2 to reproduce observed dome rock porosities. Here, compared with previous results, higher magma overpressure and lower wall friction are required to compensate for increased viscous resistance while keeping extrusion rate at the observed value.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Pilot Point Optimization of Mining Boundaries for Lateritic Metal Deposits: Finding the Trade-off Between Dilution and Ore Loss

Geological contacts in lateritic metal deposits (footwall topographies) often delineate the orebody boundaries. Spatial variations seen in such contacts are frequently higher than those for the metal grades of the deposit. Therefore, borehole spacing chosen based on the grade variations cannot adequately capture the geological contact variability. Consequently, models created using such boreholes cause high volumetric uncertainties in the actual and targeted ore extraction volumes, which, in turn, lead to high unplanned dilution and ore losses. In this paper, a method to design optimum ore/mining boundaries for lateritic metal deposits is presented. The proposed approach minimizes the dilution/ore losses and comprises two main steps. First, the uncertainty on the orebody boundary is represented using a set of stochastic realizations generated with a multiple-point statistics algorithm. Then, the optimal orebody boundary is determined using an optimization technique inspired by a model calibration method called Pilot Points. The pilot points represent synthetic elevation values, and they are used to construct smooth mining boundaries using the multilevel B-spline technique. The performance of a generated surface is evaluated using the expected sum of losses in each of the stochastic realizations. The simulated annealing algorithm is used to iteratively determine the pilot point values which minimize the expected losses. The results show a significant reduction in the dilution volume as compared to those obtained from the actual mining operation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Detecting subsurface fluid leaks in real-time using injection and production rates

Here, CO 2 injection into geologic formations for either enhanced oil recovery or carbon storage introduces a risk for undesired fluid leakage into overlying groundwater or to the surface. Despite decades of subsurface CO 2 production and injection, the technologies and methods for detecting CO 2 leaks are still costly and prone to large uncertainties. This is especially true for pressure-based monitoring methods, which require the use of simplified geological and reservoir flow models to simulate the pressure behavior as well as background noise affecting pressure measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

An international study on THM modelling of the full-scale heater experiment at Mont Terri laboratory

We present results from an international model comparison study of the Full-Scale Emplacement (FE) experiment in Opalinus Clay at the Mont Terri Laboratory, Switzerland. Based on a provided parameter set the teams decided which parameters they adopted for their models, whether they considered the excavation and the ventilation phase in addition to the heating phase and if they included technical features like the shotcrete or the EDZ. The teams were able to reproduce the measured parameters temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure. The modelled results for temperature agree very closely between the teams especially in the sensors in Opalinus Clay. All teams were able to reproduce the redistribution of water in the bentonite backfill due to heating. The evolution of the relative humidity showed similar trends with differences in the intensity of the dry out effect. To model the pore pressure evolution is more complex because it comprises the full interaction of the coupled THM processes. The spread between the pore pressure modelled by the teams was larger, with some teams overestimating the pressure increase due to heating and some teams overestimating the extent of drainage. The agreement of modelled results with measurements improves with larger distance to the heater. We conclude that the EDZ and the shotcrete potentially influence the behaviour of the rock causing higher differences closer to the heater. Further research is needed to better implement those influences into the models. Based on the calibrated models, the future evolution of temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure was predicted over the next 10 years following a change of the heat power applied in 2023 and 2024. Again, the predicted temperatures agree very closely between the teams. Most teams do not expect an increase in relative humidity during the next 10 years after the initial dry-out.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗