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NASA NTRS2014

On the Relationship Between the Length of Season and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

Officially, the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season runs from June 1 through November 30 of each year. During this 183-day interval, the vast majority of tropical cyclone onsets are found to occur. For example, in a study of the 715 tropical cyclones that occurred in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010, it was found that about 97 percent of them had their onsets during the conventional hurricane season, with the bulk (78 percent) having had onset during the late summer-early fall months of August, September, and October and with none having had onset in the month of March. For the 2014 hurricane season, it already has had the onset of its first named storm on July 1 (day of year (DOY) 182), Arthur, which formed off the east coast of Florida, rapidly growing into a category-2 hurricane with peak 1-minute sustained wind speed of about 90 kt and striking the coast of North Carolina as a category-2 hurricane on July 3. Arthur is the first hurricane larger than category-1 to strike the United States (U.S.) since the year 2008 when Ike struck Texas as a category-2 hurricane and there has not been a major hurricane (category-3 or larger) to strike the U.S. since Wilma struck Florida as a category-3 hurricane in 2005. Only two category-1 hurricanes struck the U.S. in the year 2012 (Isaac and Sandy, striking Louisiana and New York, respectively) and there were no U.S. land-falling hurricanes in 2013 (also true for the years 1962, 1973, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1990, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2009, and 2010). In recent years it has been argued that the length of season (LOS), determined as the inclusive elapsed time between the first storm day (FSD) and the last storm day (LSD) of the yearly hurricane season (i.e., when peak 1-minute sustained wind speed of at least 34 kt occurred and the tropical cyclone was not classified as 'extratropical'), has increased in length with the lengthening believed to be due to the FSD occurring sooner and the LSD occurring later and with both being related to global warming. In this study, the relationship between the LOS and tropical cyclone activity and climate is examined for the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. Estimates are also given for the LOS and LSD, as well as for the expected number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the total number of storm days (NSD), the total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), and the net tropical cyclone activity (NTCA) index for the 2014 hurricane season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Improving our Understanding of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones through Knowledge of the Saharan Air Layer: Hope or Hype?

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet produces the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. Multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL s properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and rarely moves over their inner cores, so jet-induced vertical wind shear does not appear to be a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. Of the three proposed negative influences, dry air appears to be the key influence; however, the presence of dry SAL air is not a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. In addition, a global view of relative humidity shows moisture distributions in other ocean basins that are almost identical to the Atlantic. The dry zones correspond to regions of descending air on the eastern and equatorward sides of semi-permanent oceanic high pressure systems. Thus, the dry air over the Atlantic appears to be primarily a product of the large-scale flow, but with enhanced drying at low levels associated with the Sahara. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not a major negative influence on hurricanes. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009

An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

Lawrence, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reevaluating the Role of Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet provides an energy source for the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In this study, multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to see if the proposed negative influences deserve all of the attention they have recently received. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the African jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is typically stronger in storms that intensify than those that weaken, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear is not a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. A comparison of the environments of strongly strengthening storms and of weakening storms shows no differences in SAL structure, indicating that the SAL has little influence on whether storms weaken or intensify. The large-scale flow at upper levels above the SAL was found to be most important, with the environment of strengthening storms having very little vertical wind shear and also favoring more expansive outflow from the storm. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence (sinking air motions). Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance dryness at low levels, but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid-to-upper-level dryness is not a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead a signature of subsidence. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not the major negative influence on hurricanes that recent studies have emphasized. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Use of Satellite Nightlights for Power Outages Prediction

Hurricanes are a dominant disaster in the Caribbean, always causing serious power outages throughout the islands. Hurricane Maria was a prime example, causing unimaginable destruction of the power infrastructure of Puerto Rico (PR). Consequently, one month after the hurricane landfall, approximately 80% of the population was still without power. After an event of such massive destruction, the electric power restoration process progresses very slowly. This timeline can be improved using power outage (PO) forecast models that help identify the vulnerable places before the hurricane landfall. Generally, these models are trained with historical power outages records, associated data on weather conditions, and additional information about the natural and built environments. However, PO records are often difficult to acquire, and, in many instances, the power utility companies may not record them. This study utilizes a satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night light data product as a surrogate for the power delivery to predict hurricane-induced PO in areas having limited to nonexistent historical data records. The processed satellite data is then used along with geographic variables, and simulated weather data to formulate machine learning-based algorithms to predict PO for future hurricane events. These models are applied and validated in the context of the PR catastrophic storm, Hurricane Maria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of Bogus Vortex Techniques with Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

The effectiveness of techniques for creating "bogus" vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is examined by using the Penn State/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) and its adjoint system. A series of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VAR) experiments is conducted to generate an initial vortex for Hurricane Georges (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea-level pressure and surface wind information into the mesoscale numerical model. Several different strategies are tested for improving the vortex representation. The initial vortices produced by the 4-D VAR technique are able to reproduce many of the structural features of mature hurricanes. The vortices also result in significant improvements to the hurricane forecasts in terms of both intensity and track. In particular, with assimilation of only bogus sea-level pressure information, the response in the wind field is contained largely within the divergent component, with strong convergence leading to strong upward motion near the center. Although the intensity of the initial vortex seems to be well represented, a dramatic spin down of the storm occurs within the first 6 h of the forecast. With assimilation of bogus surface wind data only, an expected dominance of the rotational component of the wind field is generated, but the minimum pressure is adjusted inadequately compared to the actual hurricane minimum pressure. Only when both the bogus surface pressure and wind information are assimilated together does the model produce a vortex that represents the actual intensity of the hurricane and results in significant improvements to forecasts of both hurricane intensity and track.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗
NASA NTRS2007

Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Simulation of the Impact of New Air-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

The H'Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRad is being designed to enhance the real-time airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRad will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approx. 3 x the aircraft altitude). The instrument is described in a paper presented to the Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Symposium. The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a numerical model from the University of Miami and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRad instrument on H'Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future tame the HIRad instrument is implemented.

Miller, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2008

An Estimate of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2008

The statistics of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945-2007 are examined and estimates are given for the frequencies of occurrence of the number of tropical cyclones, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes, number of category 4/5 hurricanes, and number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes for the 2008 hurricane season. Also examined are the variations of peak wind speed, average peak wind speed per storm, lowest pressure, average lowest pressure per storm, recurrence rate and duration of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina), the variation of 10-yr moving averages of parametric first differences, and the association of decadal averages of frequencies of occurrence of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones against decadal averages of Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, annual mean temperature (found to be extremely important for number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes). Because the 2008 hurricane season seems destined to be one that is non-El Nino-related and is a post-1995 season, estimates of the frequencies of occurrence for the various subsets of storms should be above long-term averages.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (~ 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is deployed. Plans to demonstrate the potential for HIRAD to improve numerical weather prediction of hurricanes will also be presented.

Miller, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2009

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (~ 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is implemented. Also shown will be preliminary results of numerical weather prediction OSSEs in which the impact of the addition of HIRAD observations to the initial state on numerical forecasts of the hurricane intensity and structure is assessed.

Miller, Timothy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Fuel Resiliency: Case Study of Tampa Bay

Here, this case study presents findings from an analysis of the emergency preparation and response for Hurricane Irma, the most recent hurricane impacting the Tampa Bay region. The Tampa Bay region, in particular, is considered one of the most vulnerable areas in the United States to hurricanes and severe tropical weather. A particular vulnerability stems from how all petroleum fuel comes to the area by marine transport through Port Tampa Bay, which can be (and has been in the past) impacted by hurricanes and tropical storms. The case study discussed in this paper covers previous fuel challenges, vulnerabilities, and lessons learned by key Tampa Bay public agency fleets during the past 10 years (mainly as a result of the most recent 2017 Hurricane Irma) to explore ways to improve the area’s resilience to natural disasters. Some of the strategies for fuel-supply resiliency include maintaining emergency fuel supply, prioritizing fuel use, strategically placing the assets around the region to help with recovery, investing in backup generators (including generators powered by alternative fuels), planning for redundancies in fuel supply networks, developing more efficient communication procedures between public fleets, hurricane preparedness-planning, and upgrading street drainage systems to reduce the threat of local flooding.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Experiment

In August–September 2010, NASA, NOAA, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) conducted separate but closely coordinated hurricane field campaigns, bringing to bear a combined seven aircraft with both new and mature observing technologies. NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, the subject of this article, along with NOAA's Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) and NSF's Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment, obtained unprecedented observations of the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones. The major goal of GRIP was to better understand the physical processes that control hurricane formation and intensity change, specifically the relative roles of environmental and inner-core processes. A key focus of GRIP was the application of new technologies to address this important scientific goal, including the first ever use of the unmanned Global Hawk aircraft for hurricane science operations. NASA and NOAA conducted coordinated flights to thoroughly sample the rapid intensification (RI) of Hurricanes Earl and Karl. The tri-agency aircraft teamed up to perform coordinated flights for the genesis of Hurricane Karl and Tropical Storm Matthew and the non-redevelopment of the remnants of Tropical Storm Gaston. The combined GRIP–IFEX–PREDICT datasets, along with remote sensing data from a variety of satellite platforms [Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Aqua, Terra, CloudSat, and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)], will contribute to advancing understanding of hurricane formation and intensification. This article summarizes the GRIP experiment, the missions flown, and some preliminary findings.

hurricane↗
NASA NTRS1999

NASA/NOAA: Earth Science Electronic Theater 1999

The Electronic Theater (E-theater) presents visualizations which span the period from the original Suomi/Hasler animations of the first ATS-1 GEO weather satellite images in 1966 to the latest 1999 NASA Earth Science Vision for the next 25 years. Hot off the SGI-Onyx Graphics-Supercomputer are NASA's visualizations of Hurricanes Mitch, Georges, Fran and Linda. These storms have been recently featured on the covers of National Geographic, Time, Newsweek and Popular Science. Highlights will be shown from the NASA hurricane visualization resource video tape that has been used repeatedly this season on National and International network TV. Results will be presented from a new paper on automatic wind measurements in Hurricane Luis from 1-min GOES images that appeared in the November BAMS. The visualizations are produced by the NASA Goddard Visualization and Analysis Laboratory (VAL/912), and Scientific Visualization Studio (SVS/930), as well as other Goddard and NASA groups using NASA, NOAA, ESA, and NASDA Earth science datasets. Visualizations will be shown from the Earth Science E-Theater 1999 recently presented in Tokyo, Paris, Munich, Sydney, Melbourne, Honolulu, Washington, New York, and Dallas. The presentation Jan 11-14 at the AMS meeting in Dallas used a 4-CPU SGI/CRAY Onyx Infinite Reality Super Graphics Workstation with 8 GB RAM and a Terabyte Disk at 3840 X 1024 resolution with triple synchronized BarcoReality 9200 projectors on a 60ft wide screen. Visualizations will also be featured from the new Earth Today Exhibit which was opened by Vice President Gore on July 2, 1998 at the Smithsonian Air & Space museum in Washington, as well as those presented for possible use at the American Museum of Natural History (NYC), Disney EPCOT, and other venues. New methods are demonstrated for visualizing, interpreting, comparing, organizing and analyzing immense HyperImage remote sensing datasets and three dimensional numerical model results. We call the data from many new Earth sensing satellites, HyperImage datasets, because they have such high resolution in the spectral, temporal, spatial, and dynamic range domains. The traditional numerical spreadsheet paradigm has been extended to develop a scientific visualization approach for processing HyperImage datasets and 3D model results interactively. The advantages of extending the powerful spreadsheet style of computation to multiple sets of images and organizing image processing were demonstrated using the Distributed image SpreadSheet (DISS). The DISS is being used as a high performance testbed Next Generation Internet (NGI) VisAnalysis of: 1) El Nino SSTs and NDVI response 2) Latest GOES 10 5-min rapid Scans of 26 day 5000 frame movie of March & April '98 weather and tornadic storms 3) TRMM rainfall and lightning 4)GOES 9 satellite images/winds and NOAA aircraft radar of hurricane Luis, 5) lightning detector data merged with GOES image sequences, 6) Japanese GMS, TRMM, & ADEOS data 7) Chinese FY2 data 8) Meteosat & ERS/ATSR data 9) synchronized manipulation of multiple 3D numerical model views; and others will be illustrated. The Image SpreadSheet has been highly successful in producing Earth science visualizations for public outreach. Many of these visualizations have been widely disseminated through the world wide web pages of the HPCC/LTP/RSD program which can be found at http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/rsd The one min interval animations of Hurricane Luis on ABC Nightline and the color perspective rendering of Hurricane Fran published by TIME, LIFE, Newsweek, Popular Science, National Geographic, Scientific American, and the "Weekly Reader" are some of the examples which will be shown.

Hasler, A. Fritz↗
NASA NTRS2001

Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Simpson, Joanne↗
NASA NTRS2004

Structure of the Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal During CAMEX-4

NASA's 4th Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) focused on Atlantic hurricanes during the 2001 hurricane season and it involved both NASA and NOAA participation. The NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft were instrumented with unique remote sensing instruments to help increase the overall understanding of hurricanes. This paper is concerned about one of the storms studied, Tropical Storm Chantal, that was a weak storm which failed to intense into a hurricane. One of the practical questions of high importance is why some tropical sto~ins intensify into hurricanes, and others remain weak or die altogether. The magnitude of the difference between the horizontal winds at lower levels and upper altitudes in a tropical storm, i.e., the wind shear, is one important quantity that can affect the intensification of a tropical storm. Strong shear as was present during Tropical Storm Chantal s lifetime and it was detrimental to its intensification. The paper presents an analysis of unique aircraft observations collected from Chantal including an on-board radar, radiometers, dropsondes, and flight level measurements. These measurements have enabled us to examine the internal structure of the winds and thermal structure of Chantal. Most of the previous studies have involved intense hurricanes that overcame the effects of shear and this work has provided new insights into what prevents a weaker storm from intensifying. The storm had extremely intense thunderstorms and rainfall, yet its main circulation was confined to low levels of the atmosphere. Chantal's thermal structure was not configured properly for the storm to intensify. It is most typical that huricanes have a warm core structure where warm temperatures in upper levels of a storm s circulation help intensify surface winds and lower its central pressure. Chantal had two weaker warm layers instead of a well-defined warm core. These layers have been related to the horizontal and vertical winds and precipitation structure and have helped us learn more about why this storm didn't develop.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. As NASA's QuikSCAT and Navy's WindSat operate beyond their design life, many members of the weather and climate science communities recognize the importance of developing new observational technologies and strategies to meet the essential need for OVW information to improve hurricane intensity and location forecasts. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative technology development which offers new and unique remotely sensed satellite observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is the only proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required TC remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. The instrument is described in more detail in a paper by Jones et al. presented to the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium at this AMS Annual Meeting. Simulated HIRAD passes through a simulation of hurricane Frances are being developed to demonstrate HIRAD estimation of surface wind speed over a wide swath in the presence of heavy rain. These are currently being used in "quick" OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments) with H'Wind analyses as the discriminating tool. The H'Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic , Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa._ov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. Observations have been simulated from both aircraft altitudes and space. The simulated flight patterns for the aircraft platform cases have been designed to duplicate the timing and flight patterns used in routine NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance flights, and the spaceborne case simulates a TRMM orbit and altitude.

Miller, TImothy L.↗