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Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗

Mexico Disasters: Comparing Feasibility of Flood Detection Methods Using Google Earth Engine and Open Data Cube for Flood Mitigation in Mexico

In coordination with out partner's, we identified three case studies for the application of the flood detection algorithms. The first case study analyzes the impacts of Hurricane Sally on Villahermosa, Tabasco resulting in urban flooding and impacting adjacent cropland. The second case study investigates floods in Salto de Agua, Chiapas caused by Hurricane Eta, where the Xanil River level exceeded 14 meters, pouring into the surrounding villages. Finally, we look further north to Tula de Allende, Hidalgo during Hurricane Ida, where floods collapsed the power supply citywide and caused numerous deaths.

John Willis↗

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Kerstman, Eric↗

The risk of renal stone formation during and after long duration space flight

BACKGROUND: The formation of a renal stone during space flight may have serious negative effects on the health of the crewmember and the success of the mission. Urinary biochemical factors and the influence of dietary factors associated with renal stone development were assessed during long duration Mir Space Station missions. METHODS: Twenty-four-hour urine samples were collected prior to, during and following long duration space flight. The relative urinary supersaturation of calcium oxalate, calcium phosphate (brushite), sodium urate, struvite and uric acid were determined. RESULTS: Changes in the urinary biochemistry of crewmembers during long duration spaceflight demonstrated increases in the supersaturation of the stone-forming salts. In-flight hypercalciuria was evident in a number of individual crewmembers and 24-hour dietary fluid intake and urine volume were significantly lower. During flight, there was a significant increase in brushite supersaturation. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest acute effects of space flight and postflight changes in the urinary biochemistry favoring increased crystallization in the urine. The effects of dietary intake, especially fluid intake, may have a significant impact on the potential for renal stone formation. Efforts are now underway to assess the efficacy of a countermeasure to mitigate the increased risk.

manned↗

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

Anyamba, Assaf↗

A Comparison of Combustor-Noise Models

The present status of combustor-noise prediction in the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP)1 for current-generation (N) turbofan engines is summarized. Several semi-empirical models for turbofan combustor noise are discussed, including best methods for near-term updates to ANOPP. An alternate turbine-transmission factor2 will appear as a user selectable option in the combustor-noise module GECOR in the next release. The three-spectrum model proposed by Stone et al.3 for GE turbofan-engine combustor noise is discussed and compared with ANOPP predictions for several relevant cases. Based on the results presented herein and in their report,3 it is recommended that the application of this fully empirical combustor-noise prediction method be limited to situations involving only General-Electric turbofan engines. Long-term needs and challenges for the N+1 through N+3 time frame are discussed. Because the impact of other propulsion-noise sources continues to be reduced due to turbofan design trends, advances in noise-mitigation techniques, and expected aircraft configuration changes, the relative importance of core noise is expected to greatly increase in the future. The noise-source structure in the combustor, including the indirect one, and the effects of the propagation path through the engine and exhaust nozzle need to be better understood. In particular, the acoustic consequences of the expected trends toward smaller, highly efficient gas-generator cores and low-emission fuel-flexible combustors need to be fully investigated since future designs are quite likely to fall outside of the parameter space of existing (semi-empirical) prediction tools.

Hultgren, Lennart S.↗

Large-Scale High-Resolution Coastal Mangrove Forests Mapping Across West Africa With Machine Learning Ensemble and Satellite Big Data

Coastal mangrove forests provide important ecosystem goods and services, including carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and hazard mitigation. However, they are being destroyed at an alarming rate by human activities. To characterize mangrove forest changes, evaluate their impacts, and support relevant protection and restoration decision making, accurate and up-to-date mangrove extent mapping at large spatial scales is essential. Available large-scale mangrove extent data products use a single machine learning method commonly with 30 m Landsat imagery, and significant inconsistencies remain among these data products. With huge amounts of satellite data involved and the heterogeneity of land surface characteristics across large geographic areas, finding the most suitable method for large-scale high-resolution mangrove mapping is a challenge. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of a machine learning ensemble for mangrove forest mapping at 20 m spatial resolution across West Africa using Sentinel-2 (optical) and Sentinel-1 (radar) imagery. The machine learning ensemble integrates three commonly used machine learning methods in land cover and land use mapping, including Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Neural Network (NN). The cloud-based big geospatial data processing platform Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used for pre-processing Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-1 data. Extensive validation has demonstrated that the machine learning ensemble can generate mangrove extent maps at high accuracies for all study regions in West Africa (92%–99% Producer’s Accuracy, 98%–100% User’s Accuracy, 95%–99% Overall Accuracy). This is the first-time that mangrove extent has been mapped at a 20 m spatial resolution across West Africa. The machine learning ensemble has the potential to be applied to other regions of the world and is therefore capable of producing high-resolution mangrove extent maps at global scales periodically.

coastal environment↗

Analysis of Hypervelocity-Impacted Thin Films for Space Applications

Exposure to the harsh space environment and hypervelocity impacts from micrometeoroids and small orbital debris can affect space operations through long-term degradation of spacecraft materials, surfaces, or systems. Multi-layer insulation (MLI) and coated, polyimide films are spacecraft materials commonly found on the external surfaces of spacecraft for thermal control and protection. Characterizing the damage to these exposed materials with in situ and laboratory measurements can better inform spacecraft designers and operators in understanding and mitigating surface or system degradation. In this paper, we examine flown Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Equipment Bay 5 MLI and coated, polyimide ground test articles to characterize hypervelocity impact damage. Impact feature cavities are inspected to identify damage, which can validate long-term degradation models, improve thermal management systems, or improve accuracy of damage predictions. An overview of the impact characterization using optical microscopy, narrowband spectroscopy, and Scanning Election Microscopy/Energy Dispersive X- ray (SEM/EDX) of the two materials is presented. Observations of robustness in the space environment, as well as a detailed assessment of cratering and penetration statistics for the space-exposed sample, also are discussed.

Melissa A. Ward↗

Control Effectiveness: Metric Development and Application to Resilient Lunar Habitat Design

System safety engineering in its bare essence involves identifying, assessing, and mitigating, or controlling, hazards. Appropriate safety controls are selected using hazard reduction precedence principles, prior experience, or by assessing their impact on residual risk (together with other factors like cost). We propose a control effectiveness metric as one way to systematically and consistently evaluate potential safety controls individually and thereby facilitate selecting a shortlist of potential controls for subsequent integrated evaluation. The control effectiveness metric considers a safety control’s availability when needed, the probability that its design is adequate in addressing the targeted hazard, the probability that the design will be implemented as intended, and the relationship between the time it takes for the safety control to address its target hazard and the time before the hazard propagates. We demonstrated the use of our metric on a lunar habitat design using a physics-based habitat simulator. High control effectiveness and safety controls result in a habitat with high resilience, while low control effectiveness results in lower resilience.

Rashi Jain↗

Portland Urban Development: Quantifying and Visualizing Urban Heat with Compounding Vulnerabilities to Support Community Depaving Initiatives

Urban heat is a pressing concern in Portland, Oregon as climate change induced heat waves increase. Cities experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect (UHI), and environmental injustice and disenfranchisement in minority communities expose low-income and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) residents to more extreme and debilitating heat events. Our team identified Portland’s communities on the frontlines of urban heat impacts by overlapping environmental and social vulnerabilities using NASA Earth observations. We partnered with Depave, a Portland-based nonprofit that works alongside communities to replace pavement with greenspace in historically disenfranchised areas. Using Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) imagery, we mapped Land Surface Temperature (LST) and developed a heat-specific Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) through a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify Portland’s communities with the highest potential heat vulnerability. Then, we calculated the temperature change of depaving in six case studies to quantify Depave's efforts in heat mitigation and environmental justice. Our analysis demonstrated that, throughout Portland, there are frontline communities experiencing high potential social vulnerability to extreme temperatures due to environmental injustices and over-pavement. Finally, Depave’s impact on urban heat is observable and quantifiable using remote-sensing data and tools, with an average of 1ºF LST decrease across the six case studies. We illustrated the significance of local urban heat mitigation efforts and propose next steps for conducting inclusive and intentional research that highlights the lived experiences and resilience of frontline communities.

Environmental justice↗

Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

Pullkkinen, A.↗

Radiation Effects and Protection for Moon and Mars Missions

Manned and robotic missions to the Earth's moon and Mars are exposed to a continuous flux of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) and occasional, but intense, fluxes of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP). These natural radiations impose hazards to manned exploration, but also present some constraints to the design of robotic missions. The hazards to interplanetary flight crews and their uncertainties have been studied recently by a National Research Council Committee (Space Studies Board 1996). Considering the present uncertainty estimates, thick spacecraft shielding would be needed for manned missions, some of which could be accomplished with onboard equipment and expendables. For manned and robotic missions, the effects of radiation on electronics, sensors, and controls require special consideration in spacecraft design. This paper describes the GCR and SEP particle fluxes, secondary particles behind shielding, uncertainties in radiobiological effects and their impact on manned spacecraft design, as well as the major effects on spacecraft equipment. The principal calculational tools and considerations to mitigate the radiation effects are discussed, and work in progress to reduce uncertainties is included.

Parnell, Thomas A.↗

Advancing Torpor Inducing Transfer Habitats for Human Stasis to Mars: II - Phase

SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) has conducted an evaluation of an advanced habitat system designed to transportcrews between the Earth and Mars. This new and innovative habitat concept is capable of placing crew members ininactive, torpor states during transit phases of a deep space mission. This substantially reduces the mass and size ofthe habitat, which ultimately leads to significant reductions in the overall architecture size.Our approach for achieving this is based on extending the current and evolving medical practice of TherapeuticHypothermia (TH) - a proven and effective treatment for various traumatic injuries. TH is a medical treatment thatlowers a patient's body temperature by just 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit causing human metabolic rate to decreasesignificantly and the body to enter an unconscious state. This method avoids the intractable challenges often associatedwith cell metabolic cessation through cryogenic freezing and other highly speculative approaches.The initial results obtained from the research and analysis conducted in the Phase I effort warranted further study ofthis concept and technology. The specific objectives of the continued work include:1. Addressing critical medical aspects and risks for inducing torpor via Therapeutic Hypothermia and theapproach for providing nutrition and hydration for the crew during torpor. 2. Focusing on mitigation aspects and technology potential for solving key human spaceflight challenges. 3. Addressing critical engineering aspects of the design that may impact the initial performance and cost resultsobtained in Phase I. 4. Examining the broader extensibility and enabling capabilities of this concept through applicability toadditional exploration missions beyond Mars. 5. Establishing a technology development roadmap, addressing both medical and engineering aspects, thatindicate a logical and scientifically achievable path forward for maturation of this technology.

Stasis↗

Personalized Risk Assesment for Adverse Drug Reactions and Treatment Failures

As NASA and other space agencies prepare for future long-term space missions beyond the LEO, the cumulative impact of risk factors encountered in space increases substantially rising concerns about astronauts health. Application of on-board medications to mitigate clinical symptoms associated with certain medical conditions and illnesses is the first line of response to ensure sustainable health and performance of crew. Unfortunately, very limited research has been conducted to determine efficacy of the earth-based pharmaceuticals in a microgravity environment. In some instances, orally administered medications taken during flight were reported to be less effective than expected. Evaluation of series of experiments involving astronauts from shuttle flights shows notable individual variability to several pharmaceuticals during flight. These data provide reasonable assumption of perturbation in CYP450 enzymes during spaceflight, which contribute to the hepatic metabolism of the majority of drugs and therefore may have significant effects on therapeutic efficacy and increase treatment-related toxicity. The genes encoding the CYP450 enzymes are highly variable in humans. Inheritable variations of CYP450 hepatic metabolizer enzymes and transport proteins play a crucial role in the inter-individual variability of drug efficiency and risks of adverse drug reactions. Additionally, there are some reports that document changes in the levels of production of drug-metabolizing enzymes in microgravity. Therefore, in order to provide a safe and effective pharmaceutical treatment in space, medications selection should be based not only on the specific efficacy of medications but also on the individual drug sensitivity and flight-induced changes in metabolism of astronauts chosen for a particular mission. To our knowledge, there was no pre-flight drug sensitivity testing on a genetic level for any of the previous manned NASA space missions. Therefore, technologies capable of predicting and managing medication efficacy, side effects, and toxicity of drugs based on individual genetic variability of crew members are increasingly needed. In this report, we present results of testing the market available Personalized Prescribing System (PPS), a comprehensive, non-invasive solution for safer, targeted medication management for every crew member. Statistical accuracy and simplicity of non-invasive sample analysis demonstrate the feasibility of drug sensitivity assessment and record-keeping tool for flight surgeons and astronauts in applying the recommended medications for situations arising in flight. The information on individual drug sensitivity will translate into personalized risk assessment for adverse drug reactions and treatment failures for each drug from the medication kit as well as predefined outcome. This will address the HHC’s raised “Concern of Clinically Relevant Unpredicted Effects of Medication” as recently updated.

medications↗

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

A Satellite Assessment of the Urban Heat Island in Morocco

Urban ecosystems interact with surroundings via land cover changes and their subsequent impact on surface temperature. In emerging countries, large urban agglomerations often form around cities, and only few studies have evaluated their impact. This study carries out the first ever large-scale assessment of urban heat island (UHI) and reflects on its mitigation in Morocco.The analysis reveals a well-defined UHI in urban-areas built within vegetated lands and an urban heat sink (UHS) in urban-areas built within arid regions. Both UHI and UHS amplitudes are higher during day than nighttime, emphasizing vegetation physiological activity. We show a monotonic increase in UHI amplitude with urban-area size. However, unlike previous studies, our analysis shows that as urban-areas built in desert-like environments grow in size, the UHS gradually decreases to ultimately turn into an UHI. On average, cities built within vegetation are warmer than rural fringe by 1.51°C during daytime. This suggests that daytime urban heating may exacerbate the potential climate warming. Our results also suggest that adapted trees constitute a natural cooling mechanism and should be part of urban heating mitigation in Morocco.

Urban Heat Sink↗

Understanding the Impact of Unobservable Variables on the Performance of Predictive Models: The Need for Feature Space Partitioning and Fusion

When developing predictive models over a dataset, the model is globally optimized across the entire feature space to learn a decision boundary. However, when unobservable variables—which cannot be measured or estimated—interact with the observable variables, this can negatively impact the optimization applied to the decision boundary since the data samples introduced by unobservable variables may have little to no association with the applied global optimization. This, consequently, penalizes the entire decision boundary and model performance. This paper examines some of the detrimental effects of unobservable variables, particularly their role in creating new modes in the distribution of observable variables and reducing the separability of class distributions. Such challenges result in skewed or warped decision boundaries and decreased accuracy of model predictions, particularly for interpretable models like logistic regression and decision trees. Through two illustrative case examples, we highlight the need to address the challenges imposed by unobservable variables. We propose a strategy to mitigate these challenges by creating local regions within the feature space through partitioning. This enables the optimization of local models within the regions to overcome the impact of unobservability in different feature space localities. Research into a more sophisticated partitioning strategy and where the partition should be relative to the sample of interest is left as future work. Through the analysis of the impact of unobservability and the development of a partitioning method, we demonstrate the clear need for a partitioning strategy that integrates knowledge from multiple local models to estimate risk factors using information fusion. Thus, we establish the foundation and motivation for using partitioning and information fusion to overcome the effects of unobservability in predictive models. Formal fusion methods, such as Dempster-Shafer theory, can better leverage the information from local regions to improve the performance of interpretable predictive models in the presence of unobservable variables.

Time Series Data↗

Analysis of Hypervelocity-Impacted Thin Films for Space Applications

Exposure to the harsh space environment and hypervelocity impacts from micrometeoroids and small orbital debris can affect space operations through long-term degradation of spacecraft materials, surfaces, or systems. Multi-layer insulation (MLI) and coated polyimide films are space-craft materials commonly found on the external surfaces of spacecraft for thermal control and protection. Characterizing the damage to these exposed materials with in-situ and laboratory measurements can better inform spacecraft designers and operators in understanding and mitigating surface or system degradation. In this paper, we examine flown Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Electronic Bay 5 MLI and coated polyimide ground test articles to characterize hyper-velocity impact damage. Impact feature cavities are inspected to identify damage, which can validate long-term degradation models, improve thermal management systems, or improve accuracy of damage predictions. An overview of the impact characterization using optical microscopy, narrow-band spectroscopy, and scanning election microscopy/energy dispersive x-ray (SEM/EDX) of the two materials is presented. Observations of robustness in the space environment, as well as a detailed assessment of cratering and penetration statistics for the space-exposed sample, also are discussed.

Melissa A Ward↗