Application of a PLS-Augmented ANN Model for Retrieving Chlorophyll-a from Hyperspectral Data in Case 2 Waters of the Western Basin of Lake Erie
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Khalid A. Ali↗
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Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability
There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Interplay of changing irrigation technologies and water reuse: example from the upper Snake River basin, Idaho, USA
Abstract. Careful allotment of water resources for irrigation is critical for ensuring the resiliency of agriculture in semiarid regions, and modernizing irrigation technology to minimize inefficient water losses is an important tool for farmers and agricultural economies. While modernizing irrigation technology can achieve reductions in the nonbeneficial use of water, such as bare soil evaporation and nonconsumptive losses, water returned to the landscape is also reduced, often eliminating flow paths that other users rely on. In basins using a combination of surface and groundwater, replenishing aquifer storage by the managed aquifer recharge (MAR) of seasonally available water can mitigate the aquifer drawdown that results from reduced recharge when irrigation efficiency is improved. We examine the effects of MAR on the system-scale efficiency of modernizing irrigation technology and the resulting changes in the reuse of nonconsumptive losses, using a macroscale hydrologic model applied to the semiarid upper Snake River basin (USRB) of western Wyoming and southern Idaho, USA. Irrigation technologies were represented explicitly in the model, and available data informed baseline parameterizations of the irrigation technology. A suite of parameterizations were simulated that updated the existing technologies to be more efficient, both with and without sufficient MAR to cause a stabilization of the aquifer at the present-day head. As expected, simulated changes in irrigation technology resulted in greater downstream export of pristine water and a higher rate of aquifer drawdown when MAR was not simulated. Under current water use and cropping patterns, we were not able to simulate aquifer stabilization and maintain discharge downstream at any level of irrigation efficiency. We found support for the hypothesis that, as efficiency improves, less MAR is required to maintain a stable aquifer than when return flows are reduced due to increased efficiency. To evaluate the hypothesis, we defined the management benefit as a metric that compared the difference between the change in irrigation's net recharge and the change in MAR required as irrigation technology became more efficient. The metric generally indicated that less MAR was needed than net recharge was lost, but only for the most efficient case did the management benefit exceed the MAR needed at the baseline to stabilize the aquifer. Increasing efficiency of irrigation technology reduced the reuse of the gross irrigation derived from prior nonconsumptive losses, but simulating MAR increased reuse for a given parameterization, leading to higher effective irrigation efficiency. We find that local groundwater storage that users depend on is generally more sensitive to management decisions than downstream flows, and the drawdown of the aquifer without MAR always exceeded any decrease in discharge induced by MAR. Improving resource sufficiency in semiarid systems like the USRB will require an array of solutions that will need to balance benefits to local and downstream users.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Wind-driven surface transport in stratified closed basins Direct versus residual circulations
The wind-driven circulation in a moderately large, stratified basin Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, is studied using a numerical model. Direct circulations, in which the current directions remain relatively constant and the mean circulation formed over several days resembles the instantaneous circulation, and residual circulations, in which the currents fluctuate continuously and the mean circulation is characterized by small net displacements of parcels after large oscillations, are found. The lake's double gyre, dominated by the large anticyclonic northern gyre, differs from the single cyclonic gyre reported for other stratified basins, and examination of the modeled vorticity budget in the surface layer shows that the curl of the wind stress must be included to obtain the observed direct double gyre circulation.
Strub, P. T.↗
Snake River Plain FORGE: Site Characterization Data
The site characterization data used to develop the conceptual geologic model for the Snake River Plain site in Idaho, as part of phase 1 of the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) initiative. This collection includes data on seismic events, groundwater, geomechanical models, gravity surveys, magnetics, resistivity, magnetotellurics (MT), rock physics, stress, the geologic setting, and supporting documentation, including several papers. Also included are 3D models (Petrel and Jewelsuite) of the proposed site. Data for wells INEL-1, WO-2, and USGS-142 have been included as links to separate data collections. These data have been assembled by the Snake River Geothermal Consortium (SRGC), a team of collaborators that includes members from national laboratories, universities, industry, and federal agencies, lead by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Other contributors include the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CEAS), the University of Idaho, Idaho State University, Boise State University, University of Wyoming, University of Oklahoma, Energy and Geoscience Institute-University of Utah, US Geothermal, Baker Hughes Campbell Scientific Inc., Chena Power, US Geological Survey (USGS), Idaho Department of Water Resources, Idaho Geological Survey, and Mink GeoHydro.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments
Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs.
Climate Change↗
Research on lunar Mare emplacement and impact cratering experiments
A model was derived enabling the interpretation of lunar styles of volcanism through the analysis of various surface features. The model was applied to several areas on the Moon, including the Orientale Basin, the Smythii Basin, the Herigonious region, and several highland areas. Concurrent with the application of the model, several topical studies of various aspects of lunar volcanism were completed. A series of impact crater experiments was conducted at NASA Ames in order to determine the effect that viscous targets would have on cratering mechanics and morphology for application in studies of Martian ejecta flow craters. The results of the experiments led to a model that can account for the formation of multiple flow lobes and the general morphology of some aspects of Martian craters.
Greeley, R.↗
Numerical Modeling of Transport of Biomass Burning Emissions on South America
Our research efforts have addressed theoretical and numerical modeling of sources emissions and transport processes of trace gases and aerosols emitted by biomass burning on the central of Brazil and Amazon basin. For this effort we coupled all Eulerian transport model with the mesoscale atmospheric model RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System).
RibeirodeFreitas, Saulo↗
State-Space Model to Estimate Salmon Escapement Using Multiple Data Sources
Abstract Accurate estimates of salmonids passing Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, by species and origin, are a critical input to assessing the status and trends of various populations as well as successful management of fisheries in the Snake River basin. Here, we describe a state-space model that estimates such escapement past a dam by using window counts, PIT tag observations, and data from an adult fish trap, accounting for issues such as nighttime passage, fallback and reascension, potential observation error at the window, and uncertainty in the adult trap rate. We tested the approach using a simulation framework that mimicked several levels of observation error, differences between nighttime passage and reascension rates, and the possibility of the adult trap being closed for some period of time. Our results demonstrate that the model produced unbiased estimates across all tested scenarios. We also applied this model to empirical data from Lower Granite Dam to produce estimates of wild, clipped hatchery, and unclipped hatchery spring/summer-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss from spawn years 2010–2019.
See, Kevin E. (ORCID:0000000297626442)↗
Global changes in biogeochemical cycles in response to human activities
The main objective of our research was to characterize biogeochemical cycles at continental and global scales in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This characterization applied to both natural ecosystems and those disturbed by human activity. The primary elements of interest were carbon and nitrogen and the analysis sought to quantify standing stocks and dynamic cycling processes. The translocation of major nutrients from the terrestrial landscape to the atmosphere (via trace gases) and to fluvial systems (via leaching, erosional losses, and point source pollution) were of particular importance to this study. Our aim was to develop the first generation of Earth System Models. Our research was organized around the construction and testing of component biogeochemical models which treated terrestrial ecosystem processes, aquatic nutrient transport through drainage basins, and trace gas exchanges at the continental and global scale. A suite of three complementary models were defined within this construct. The models were organized to operate at a 1/2 degree latitude by longitude level of spatial resolution and to execute at a monthly time step. This discretization afforded us the opportunity to understand the dynamics of the biosphere down to subregional scales, while simultaneously placing these dynamics into a global context.
Moore, Berrien, III↗
Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models
Abstract. This study enhances an existing global hydrological model (GHM), Xanthos, by adding a new water management module that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We remapped reservoirs in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database to the 0.5∘ spatial resolution in Xanthos so that a single lumped reservoir exists per grid cell, which yielded 3790 large reservoirs. We implemented unique operation rules for each reservoir type, based on their primary purposes. In particular, hydropower reservoirs have been treated as flood control reservoirs in previous GHM studies, while here, we determined the operation rules for hydropower reservoirs via optimization that maximizes long-term hydropower production. We conducted global simulations using the enhanced Xanthos and validated monthly streamflow for 91 large river basins, where high-quality observed streamflow data were available. A total of 1878 (296 hydropower, 486 irrigation, and 1096 flood control and others) out of the 3790 reservoirs are located in the 91 basins and are part of our reported results. The Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value (after adding the new water management) is ≥ 0.5 and ≥ 0.0 in 39 and 81 basins, respectively. After adding the new water management module, model performance improved for 75 out of 91 basins and worsened for only 7. To measure the relative difference between explicitly representing hydropower reservoirs and representing hydropower reservoirs as flood control reservoirs (as is commonly done in other GHMs), we use the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Out of the 296 hydropower reservoirs, the NRMSE is > 0.25 (i.e., considering 0.25 to represent a moderate difference) for over 44 % of the 296 reservoirs when comparing both the simulated reservoir releases and storage time series between the two simulations. We suggest that correctly representing hydropower reservoirs in GHMs could have important implications for our understanding and management of freshwater resource challenges at regional-to-global scales. This enhanced global water management modeling framework will allow the analysis of future global reservoir development and management from a coupled human–earth system perspective.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Amazonian Moisture Recycling Revisited Using WRF With Water Vapor Tracers
Previous studies have estimated that 25%–35% of Amazonian precipitation comes from evapotranspiration (ET) within the basin. However, due to simplifying assumptions of traditional models, these studies primarily focus on large spatial and temporal scales. This study is the first to analyze the moisture of Amazonian origin at the annual to daily timescale in four different subregions of the Amazon. We analyze the sources, sinks and stores of moisture that originates as Amazonian ET. To do this, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional meteorological model with the added capability of water vapor tracers to track this moisture. Moisture of Amazonian origin shows strong annual and semi-annual signals, with contrasting behavior between the northern and southern parts of the basin. The tracers reveal a strong diurnal cycle of Amazonian water vapor which had not been previously reported. This signal is related to the diurnal cycle of ET, convective precipitation and advected moisture. ET's contribution to atmospheric moisture increases from early morning into the afternoon. Some of this moisture is rained out through convective storms in the early evening. Later in the night and following morning, strong winds associated with the South American Low Level Jet advect moisture downwind. Overall, the beating pattern becomes apparent when visualizing the Amazonian water vapor as an animation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs and Impacts on Oceanic N2O Fluxes in the Northern Indian Ocean: the Need for an Integrated Observation and Modelling Approach
Anthropogenically-derived nitrogen input to the northern Indian Ocean has increased significantly in recent decades, based on both observational and model derived estimates This external nutrient source is supplied by atmospheric deposition and riverine fluxes, and has the potential to affect the vulnerable biogeochemical systems of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, influencing productivity and oceanic production of the greenhouse-gas nitrous-oxide (N2O). We summarize current estimates of this external nitrogen source to the northern Indian Ocean from observations and models, highlight implications for regional marine N2O emissions using model-based analyses, and make recommendations for measurement and model needs to improve current estimates and future predictions of this impact. Current observationally-derived estimates of deposition and riverine nitrogen inputs are limited by sparse measurements and uncertainties on accurate characterization of nitrogen species composition. Ocean model assessments of the impact of external nitrogen sources on regional marine N2O production in the northern Indian Ocean estimate potentially significant changes but also have large associated uncertainties. We recommend an integrated program of basin-wide measurements combined with high-resolution modeling and more detailed characterization of nitrogen-cycle process to address these uncertainties and improve current estimates and predictions.
Parvadha Suntharalingam↗
Assessing Reservoir Depositional Environments to Develop and Quantify Improvements in CO 2 Storage Efficiency. A Reservoir Simulation Approach
The storage potential and fluid movement within formations are dependent on the unique hydraulic characteristics of their respective depositional environments. Storage efficiency (E) quantifies the potential for storage in a geologic depositional environment and is used to assess basinal or regional CO 2 storage resources. Current estimates of storage resources are calculated using common E ranges by lithology and not by depositional environment. The objectives of this project are to quantify E ranges and identify E enhancement strategies for different depositional environments via reservoir simulation studies. The depositional environments considered include deltaic, shelf clastic, shelf carbonate, fluvial deltaic, strandplain, reef, fluvial and alluvial, and turbidite. Strategies considered for enhancing E include CO 2 injection via vertical, horizontal, and deviated wells, selective completions, water production, and multi-well injection. Conceptual geologic and geocellular models of the depositional environments were developed based on data from Illinois Basin oil fields and gas storage sites. The geologic and geocellular models were generalized for use in other US sedimentary basins. An important aspect of this work is the development of conceptual geologic and geocellular models that reflect the uniqueness of each depositional environment. Different injection well completions methods were simulated to investigate methods of enhancing E in the presence of geologic heterogeneity specific to a depositional environment. Modeling scenarios included horizontal wells (length, orientation, and inclination), selective and dynamic completions, water production, and multiwell injection. A Geologic Storage Efficiency Calculator (GSECalc) was developed to calculate E from reservoir simulation output. Estimated E values were normalized to diminish their dependency on fluid relative permeability. Classifying depositional environments according to normalized baseline E ranges ranks fluvial deltaic and turbidite highest and shelf carbonate lowest. The estimated average normalized baseline E of turbidite, and shelf carbonate depositional environments are 42.5% and 13.1%, with corresponding standard deviations of 11.3%, and 3.10%, respectively. Simulations of different plume management techniques suggest that the horizontal well, multi-well injection with brine production from blanket vertical producers are the most efficient E enhancement strategies in seven of eight depositional environments; for the fluvial deltaic depositional environment, vertical well with blanket completions is the most efficient. This study estimates normalized baseline E ranges for eight depositional environments, which can be used to assess the CO 2 storage resource of candidate formations. This study also improves the general understanding of depositional environment’s influence on E. The lessons learned and results obtained from this study can be extrapolated to formations in other US basins with formations of similar depositional environments, which should be used to further refine regional and national storage resource estimates in future editions of the Carbon Utilization and Storage Atlas of the United States. Further study could consider the economic feasibility of the E enhancement strategies identified here.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Utah FORGE: Data for 3-D Model Development - Lithology, Temperature, Pressure, and Stress
This submission comprises two downloadable .zip archives. Each archive contains spreadsheets with 3-D data and a .txt document describing the data. The Mesh Files .zip download contains data regarding the lithologic contacts of the granitoid and overlying sedimentary basin fill. The Initial Conditions .zip download contains data regarding temperature, pressure, and stress. These data were generated during Utah FORGE Phase 2 and exported from Seequent Leapfrog Geothermal. They are intended for use in 3-D earth modeling.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Hillslope-Channel Transitions and the Role of Water Tracks in a Changing Permafrost Landscape
The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change, and the effect on hydrologic processes and resulting geomorphic changes to hillslopes and channels is unclear because we lack quantitative models and theory for rapid changes resulting from thawing permafrost. Here, the presence of permafrost modulates water flow and the stability of soil-mantled slopes, implying that there should be a signature of permafrost processes, including warming-driven disturbance, in channel network extent. To inform understanding of hillslope-channel dynamics under changing climates, we examined soil-mantled hillslopes within a ~300 km 2 area of the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska, where discontinuous permafrost is particularly susceptible to thaw and rapid landscape change. In this study, we pair high-resolution topographic and satellite data to multi-annual observations of InSAR-derived surface displacement over a 5-year period to quantify spatial variations in topographic change across an upland landscape. We find that neither the basin slope nor the presence of knickzones controls the magnitude of recent surface displacements within the study basin, as may be expected under conceptual models of temperate hillslope evolution. Rather, the highest displacement magnitudes tended to occur at the broad hillslope-channel transition zone. In this study area, this zone is occupied by water tracks, which are zero-order ecogeomorphic features that concentrate surface and subsurface flow paths. Our results suggest that water tracks, which appear to occupy hillslope positions between saturation and incision thresholds, are vulnerable to warming-induced subsidence and incision. We hypothesize that gullying within water tracks will outpace infilling by hillslope processes, resulting in the growth of the channel network under future warming.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Great Basin NV Play Fairway Analysis - Carson Sink
All datasets and products specific to the Carson Sink Basin. Includes a packed ArcMap (.mpk), individually zipped shapefiles, and a file geodatabase for the Carson Sink area; a GeoSoft Oasis montaj project containing GM-SYS 2D gravity profiles along the trace of our seismic reflection lines; a 3D model in EarthVision; spreadsheet of links to published maps; and spreadsheets of well data.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗