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DOE OSTI2024

Error mitigation, optimization, and extrapolation on a trapped-ion testbed

Current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) trapped-ion devices are subject to errors which can significantly impact the accuracy of calculations if left unchecked. A form of error mitigation called zero noise extrapolation (ZNE) can decrease an algorithm’s sensitivity to these errors without increasing the number of required qubits. Here we explore different methods for integrating this error mitigation technique into the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) algorithm for calculating the ground state of the HeH + molecule at 0.8 Å in the presence of experimental noise. Using the Quantum Scientific Computing Open User Testbed (QSCOUT) trapped-ion device, we test three methods of scaling noise for extrapolation: time stretching the two-qubit gates, scaling the sideband detuning parameter, and inserting two-qubit gate identity operations into the ansatz circuit. We find that time stretching and sideband detuning scaling fail to scale the noise on our particular hardware in a way that can be extrapolated to zero noise. Scaling our noise with global gate identity insertions and extrapolating after variational optimization, we achieve error suppression of 96.8%, resulting in an energy estimate within –0.004 ± 0.04 hartree of the ground state energy. This is an improvement, but still outside the chemical accuracy threshold of 0.0016 hartree. Furthermore, our results show that the efficacy of this error mitigation technique depends on choosing the correct implementation for a given device architecture.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spread Spectrum Symbol Detection With Blind Interference Suppression in FBMC-SS

Recent works have demonstrated Filter Bank Multicarrier Spread Spectrum (FBMC-SS) to be a robust communication scheme in the presence of high-power interferers. Existing FBMC-SS symbol detector designs based on analysis filter banks (AFB) suggest using an optimal combining scheme to suppress the interferers, necessitating some noise/interference power estimation method. In this paper, we introduce a symbol detector with blind interference suppression by extending a recently developed packet detection method. We then provide an analysis to show that the existing AFB-based symbol detector and the one proposed in this paper are equivalent in typical usage scenarios. A fully-fledged receiver design is proposed utilizing this symbol detector, with specifics presented for estimation of the channel impulse response and carrier frequency offset (CFO). We also outline a method of iterating upon the channel and CFO estimations to improve the quality of both parameters. Moreover, a modification to allow improved performance of the symbol detector at high SNR is provided. Finally, simulated performance results are presented to corroborate these findings and demonstrate the efficiency of this receiver design.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

PyJMAK: An Open-Source Python Toolkit for Modeling Solid-State Metallurgical Phase Transformations

Accurate prediction of metallurgical phase transformations is an essential basis for autonomous optimization and rapid part qualification. Several methods can be used to estimate the evolution of phase fractions such as JMAK kinetics-based models, phase-field models, thermodynamic models, and data-driven machine learning models. Thermodynamic and phase-field-based methodologies solve multiphysics equations requiring numerous calibration parameters and significant computational resources. As a result, the computation domain is limited to a point or on order of micron-meters. The data-driven models rely on large datasets from experiments and simulations. While the JMAK model only provides information about phase fraction evolution, it can predict this evolution in near real-time using thermal history and thermodynamic data without restriction on the domain. JMAK models have been popularly used by researchers to model phase transformations occuring during additive manufacturing or over arbitrary temperature profiles. Commercial proprietary software such as Abaqus and Ansys or closed-source in-house implementations offer the ability to model JMAK based kinetics to predict phase transformation. However, these software packages are not open-source or freely available for use and development in conjunction with manufacturing machines, sensors, and machine learning algorithms. In addition, the use of the model is restricted by a license token. In contrast, given temperature profiles at multiple points in the domain, this Python-based PyJMAK model can compute phase evolution in parallel due to its stand-alone modular, voxel-based structure, and it can be executed on high-performance computing resources without any license restrictions.

Prabhune, Bhagya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

DOE OSTI2021

CSRI Summer Proceedings 2021

The Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) brings university faculty and students to Sandia National Laboratories for focused collaborative research on Department of Energy (DOE) computer and computational science problems. The institute provides an opportunity for university researches to learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE laboratories, and help transfer results of their research to programs at the labs. Some specific CSRI research interest areas are: scalable solvers, optimization, algebraic preconditioners, graph-based, discrete, and combinatorial algorithms, uncertainty estimation, validation and verification methods, mesh generation, dynamic load-balancing, virus and other malicious-code defense, visualization, scalable cluster computers, beyond Moore’s Law computing, exascale computing tools and application design, reduced order and multiscale modeling, parallel input/output, and theoretical computer science. The CSRI Summer Program is organized by CSRI and includes a weekly seminar series and the publication of a summer proceedings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

CSRI Summer Proceedings 2021

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

COMSOL Results for the Nominal Steady-State Operation of the Proposed 95-MW LEU Silicide Core for HFIR Conversion

Engineering design studies are being performed to determine the feasibility of converting the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This activity is sponsored by the Office of Reactor Conversion and Uranium Supply (ORCUS) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Material Management and Minimization. HFIR is a very high flux, pressurized, light water–cooled and moderated, flux trap–type research reactor with a core made of involute shaped U 3 O 8 /Al cermet fuel plates and coolant channels. HFIR currently operates at a thermal power of 85 MW and supports key national and international missions in neutron scattering, isotope production, materials/fuels irradiation, neutron activation analysis, gamma irradiation, and neutrino research. Advanced multiphysics computational fluid dynamics models have been developed in the COMSOL Multiphysics software to simulate the steady-state operating conditions for the proposed low-and high-density LEU U 3 Si 2 -Al (uranium silicide dispersion) fuel designs. The COMSOL models for HFIR inner and outer fuel element models incorporate various essential inputs and physics such as spatially dependent nuclear heat deposition, multilayer heat conduction, conjugate heat transfer, turbulent flows (using Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes turbulence models), structural mechanics (thermal–structural interactions and fuel swelling), and oxide layer build-up. This report presents the best-estimate thermal hydraulics results for the low- and high-density optimized silicide LEU core designs at 95 MW steady-state nominal operation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Abundance of Major Cell Wall Components in Natural Variants and Pedigrees of Populus trichocarpa

The rapid analysis of biopolymers including lignin and sugars in lignocellulosic biomass cell walls is essential for the analysis of the large sample populations needed for identifying heritable genetic variation in biomass feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts. In this study, we reported the analysis of cell wall lignin content, syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio, as well as glucose and xylose content by high-throughput pyrolysis-molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) for >3,600 samples derived from hundreds of accessions of Populus trichocarpa from natural populations, as well as pedigrees constructed from 14 parents (7 × 7). Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression models were built from the samples of known sugar composition previously determined by hydrolysis followed by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analysis. Key spectral features positively correlated with glucose content consisted of m/z 126, 98, and 69, among others, deriving from pyrolyzates such as hydroxymethylfurfural, maltol, and other sugar-derived species. Xylose content positively correlated primarily with many lignin-derived ions and to a lesser degree with m/z 114, deriving from a lactone produced from xylose pyrolysis. Models were capable of predicting glucose and xylose contents with an average error of less than 4%, and accuracy was significantly improved over previously used methods. The differences in the models constructed from the two sample sets varied in training sample number, but the genetic and compositional uniformity of the pedigree set could be a potential driver in the slightly better performance of that model in comparison with the natural variants. Broad-sense heritability of glucose and xylose composition using these data was 0.32 and 0.34, respectively. In summary, we have demonstrated the use of a single high-throughput method to predict sugar and lignin composition in thousands of poplar samples to estimate the heritability and phenotypic plasticity of traits necessary to develop optimized feedstocks for bioenergy applications.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Co-optimization of nuclear reactor flexible power operation and maintenance scheduling

As flexible power operation of nuclear power plants becomes more attractive due to the reduction in fossil-fueled dispatchable generation on energy grids, finding optimal power production strategies that balance revenue generation with operational concerns becomes more complex. This article presents a general framework to aid operators in designing economically optimal long term dispatch strategies for nuclear power plants. The principal novelty is the linking of estimated system remaining useable life (RUL) to strategic operational decisions. It is shown that, depending on the relationship between the fixed costs from maintenance and the associated lost revenue from an outage, it can be economically optimal in the long term to delay a maintenance outage and not perform this alongside refueling. For a given relationship between power ramping and degradation, optimal strategies were found that discouraged load following in some situations while minimizing unnecessary maintenance. It is shown that heavy load following can cause maintenance and refueling outages to diverge due to their inverse relationships with respect to load following, potentially leading to a significant loss in capacity factor. As a result, this general framework can be applied to specific reactor dispatch allowing operators to adapt operational strategies as future grid conditions change.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demand Response Under Stochastic, Price-Dependent User Behavior

This letter focuses on price-based demand response (DR) implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented by price-dependent random variables, leveraging models and tools from the theory of stochastic optimization with decision-dependent distributions. The inherent epistemic uncertainty in the customers' responses renders open-loop, model-based DR strategies impractical. We propose a stochastic, feedback-based pricing strategy to compensate for estimation errors and uncertainty in customer response, establish theoretical results demonstrating the stability and near-optimality of the proposed approach, and validate its effectiveness through numerical simulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrating Survival Analysis with Bayesian Statistics to Forecast the Remaining Useful Life of a Centrifugal Pump Conditional to Multiple Fault Types

To improve the viability of nuclear power plants, there is a need to reduce their operational costs. Operational costs account for a significant portion of a plant’s yearly budget, due to their scheduled-based maintenance approach. In order to reduce these costs, proactive methods are required that estimate and forecast the state of a machine in real time to optimize maintenance schedules. In this research, we use Bayesian networks to develop a framework that can forecast the remaining useful life of a centrifugal pump. To do so, we integrate survival analysis with Bayesian statistics to forecast the health of the pump conditional to its current state. We complete our research by successfully using the Bayesian network on a case study. This solution provides an informed probabilistic viewpoint of the pumping system for the purpose of predictive maintenance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Transactive Electric Water Heater Agent: Design and Performance Evaluation

Electric water heaters (EWHs) are usually equipped with inbuilt thermostats to measure water temperature near the installed positions. Most of the existing EWHs have only two thermostats and often do not have water flow sensor installed. Estimation of state of heat energy (SOHE) inside the hot water tank, which is crucial for efficient control and operation of the EWH, under such imperfect system conditions is very challenging. This paper, therefore, designs a transactive EWH agent (TEWHA) to better estimate SOHE in presence of measurement errors and imperfect system knowledge. The TEWHA, built-in Python, approximates the EWH physics using limited measurements obtained from the ground truth GridLABD model. The performance of the TEWHA is validated against ground truth system for three scenarios: a) ideal condition where TEWHA has complete knowledge of the system, b) imperfect condition where TEWHA has incomplete system information, and c) noised condition where TEWHA measurements contain random errors. Finally, an optimization problem is formulated and solved to demonstrate how TEWHA could use the estimated and measured parameters for a transactive control of EWH. Index Terms—Demand flexibility

demand flexibility, distribution system, electric ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Open-source microreactor design models for technoeconomic assessments

Technoeconomic analyses for advanced nuclear technologies are essential for identifying cost drivers which allow for optimizing the technology to achieve better economic performance. Microreactors are emerging as a promising and reliable-energy solution, offering inherent safety, low capital investment, and rapid deployment capabilities. Past studies have conducted technoeconomic analyses for microreactors, but there remains a need for open-source technoeconomic models that can enhance collaboration, transparency, and consistency when performing this type of analysis. The present article introduces an open-source technoeconomic model for microreactors based on bottom-up cost estimation. Since no real cost data for microreactors exists, this model leverages cost data and insights gleaned from the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) project. It estimates the first-of-a-kind cost of two microreactor technologies and can also calculate the N th of a kind (NOAK) cost via accounting for learning and mass factory production. The two technologies considered in this paper are the liquid–metal thermal reactor (LTMR) and the gas-cooled microreactor (GCMR). In conclusion, the goal of this study is to demonstrate bottom-up cost estimation of these microreactor technologies and provide the cost estimation models that other users can leverage for various applications such as design optimization and financial planning.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of gas hydrate saturation using machine learning and optimal set of well-logs

We report resistivity and acoustic logs are widely used to estimate gas hydrate saturation in various sedimentary systems using one of the two popular methods ((1) acoustic velocity and (2) electrical resistivity), but the limitations of these two methods are often overlooked, which include (i) well-specific calibration of empirical exponents in the electrical resistivity method, (ii) assumption of known pore morphology for gas hydrates in the acoustic velocity method, and (iii) presence of unknown mineralogy and bulk modulus terms in the acoustic velocity method. NMR-density porosity-derived gas hydrate saturation based on the analysis of the transverse magnetization relaxation time (T2) is considered the most precise method, but acquisition of NMR-based logs is limited at relatively recent drilled sites; additionally, its use in conventional oil and gas reservoirs is not that common due to higher cost and operational deployment limitations associated with acquiring NMR well-logs. This study proposes a new method that predicts gas hydrate saturation (S h ) for any well using porosity, bulk density, and compressional wave (P wave) velocity well-logs with neural network (or stochastic gradient descent regression) without any well-specific calibration and/or other aforementioned shortcomings of the existing methods. The method is developed by examining the underlying dependency between S h and different combinations of well-logs, chosen from 6 routine logs, with 12 different machine learning (ML) algorithms. The accuracy of the proposed method in predicting S h is ~ 84%, which is better than the accuracy of seismic and electrical resistivity methods (≤ 75%) per the results reported by three different studies. The robustness of the method in the specific case of permafrost-associated gas hydrates is demonstrated with well-log data from two wells drilled on the Alaska North Slope.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Sampling-Based Bi-Fidelity Stochastic Trust Region Method for Stochastic Derivative-Free Optimization

Bi-fidelity stochastic optimization has gained increasing attention as an efficient approach to reduce computational costs by leveraging a low-fidelity (LF) model to optimize an expensive high-fidelity (HF) objective. In this paper, we propose ASTRO-BFDF, an adaptive sampling trust-region method specifically designed for unconstrained bi-fidelity stochastic derivative-free optimization problems. In ASTRO-BFDF, the LF function serves two purposes: (i) to identify better iterates for the HF function when the optimization process indicates a high correlation between them and (ii) to reduce the variance of the HF function estimates using bi-fidelity Monte Carlo (BFMC). The algorithm dynamically determines sample sizes while adaptively choosing between crude Monte Carlo and BFMC to balance the trade-off between optimization and sampling errors. We prove that the iterates generated by ASTRO-BFDF converge to a first-order stationary point almost surely. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through numerical experiments on synthetic benchmarks and simulation optimization problems involving discrete event systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Switchgrass Biomass Yield and Lignocellulose Composition from UAV-Based Indices

Innovative methods for estimating commercial-scale switchgrass yields and feedstock quality are essential to optimize harvest logistics and biorefinery efficiency for sustainable aviation fuel production. This study utilized vegetation indices (VIs) derived from multispectral images to predict biomass yield and lignocellulose concentrations of advanced bioenergy-type switchgrass cultivars (“Liberty” and “Independence”) under two N rates (28 and 56 kg N ha –1 ). Field-scale plots were arranged in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) and replicated three times at Urbana, IL. Multispectral images captured during the 2021–2023 growing seasons were used to extract VIs. The results show that linear and exponential models outperformed partial least square and random forest models, with mid-August imagery providing the best predictions for biomass, cellulose, and hemicellulose. The green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) was the best univariate predictor for biomass yield (R 2 = 0.86), while a multivariate combination of the GNDVI and normalized difference red-edge index (NDRE) enhanced prediction accuracy (R 2 = 0.88). Cellulose was best predicted using the NDRE (R 2 = 0.53), whereas hemicellulose prediction was most effective with a multivariate model combining the GNDVI, NDRE, NDVI, and green ratio vegetation index (GRVI) (R 2 = 0.44). These findings demonstrate the potential of UAV-based VIs for the in-season estimation of biomass yield and cellulose concentration.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

CalWave's xWave Design for PacWave (Final Technical Report)

CalWave Inc. (CalWave) is developing a wave energy converter (WEC) technology that can generate electricity from ocean waves. CalWave’s design offers a unique approach to wave energy conversion that operates fully submerged and can actively adjust the wave excitation. This capability gives the architecture enhanced survivability in ocean storms without adding significant costs. Prior to this project, CalWave had completed a demonstration of a fully functional WEC system in an open ocean demonstration at nominal 1:5 scale under FOA 1663. The goal of this project was the detailed design, following relevant standards and industry best-practices, of a variant of the xWave WEC technology that can safely and efficiently operate at the DOE’s PacWave South test site for a targeted deployment of up two years. The WEC design and associated review processes proceeded in two distinct project phases: a ‘Preliminary’ and a ‘Final’ design phase. The first phase of the project consisted of the systematic design of the WEC’s key features with regards to appropriate IEC standards. The work resulted in a preliminary design of the xWave hull including structural and Power Take-Off (PTO) load estimates, as well as performance estimates for all ocean conditions the WEC would operate in at PacWave South. Following the first open-water demonstration of CalWave’s small-scale “x1” device under FOA 1663, lessons learned were fed directly into a comprehensive review of the xWave design in the second design phase of this FOA project. CalWave’s work was supported by Sandia National Lab (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) on the holistic WEC design, and detailed feedback from specialized partners on hull design, mooring and anchoring specification, and electrical grid interconnection. Optimization of the WEC system was performed using a novel numerical optimization tool developed by Sandia and optimization trends were confirmed via an experimental model scale tank test campaign. Performance estimates for PacWave and a detailed xWave design including integration of all relevant system components were concluded. The mooring design was also concluded in the Final design phase using the most up to date sea floor characterization (CPT) data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

An optimization approach for cryogenic distillation-based protium removal systems in magnetic fusion energy fuel cycles

Tritium inventory reduction for fusion power plants is central to the successful adoption of fusion energy. The advent of direct internal recycling in deuterium-tritium fusion fuel cycle design has led to significant reduction in startup tritium inventory estimates for fusion power plants but requires an isotope rebalancing and protium removal (IRPR) system to ensure acceptable isotopic fuel composition. Cryogenic distillation is a potential solution for near-term deployment in an IRPR system due to its demonstrated performance in similar operating regimes. Using protium removal in the fuel cycle as the primary performance metric, this paper presents an optimization methodology for a single-column continuous cryogenic distillation-based IRPR system for a 500 MW fus magnetic fusion device. Distillation column optimization was performed using the CryOgenic Distillation For Isotopic Separation of Hydrogen (CODFISH) code developed at Savannah River National Laboratory. The distillation column design presented maximizes direct recycling of hydrogen isotopes from the fusion chamber exhaust to the fueling system while minimizing IRPR system steady-state tritium inventory. The optimized IRPR distillation column presented achieves direct recycling of 60 % of the hydrogen isotopes in the fusion chamber exhaust with an estimated steady-state system tritium inventory <30 g. In conclusion, the optimized IRPR distillation column operation was then used to estimate the design requirements for a detritation column to treat the IRPR system effluent stream.

CryOgenic distillation↗