Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Precipitation pattern”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Cusp and LLBL as Sources of the Isolated Dayside Auroral Feature During Northward IMF

An intense dayside proton aurora was observed by IMAGE FUV for an extensive period of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on 17 and 18 September, 2000. This aurora partially coincided with the auroral oval and intruded farther poleward into the polar cap, and it showed longitudinal motions in response to IMF $B-y$ variation. Intense magnetosheath-like electron and ion precipitations have been simultaneously detected by DMSP above the poleward portion of the high-latitude dayside aurora. They resemble the typical plasmas observed in the low-altitude cusp. However, less intense electrons and more intense energetic ions were detected over the equatorward part of the aurora. These plasmas are closer to the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) plasmas. Under strongly northward IMF, global ionospheric convection derived from SuperDARN radar measurements showed a 4-cell pattern with sunward convection in the middle of the dayside polar cap and the dayside aurora corresponded to two different convection cells. This result further supports two source regions for the aurora. The cusp proton aurora is on open magnetic field lines convecting sunward whereas the LLBL proton aurora is on closed field lines convecting antisunward. These IMAGE, DMSP and SuperDARN observations reveal the structure and dynamics of the aurora and provide strong evidence for magnetic merging occurring at the high-latitude magnetopause poleward from the cusp. This merging process was very likely quasi-stationary.

Chang, S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Self-Consistent Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling: Theoretical Studies

A self-consistent ring current (RC) model has been developed that couples electron and ion magnetospheric dynamics with the calculation of the electric field. Two new features were taken into account in order to close the self-consistent magnetosphere- ionosphere coupling loop. First, in addition to the RC ions, we solve an electron kinetic equation in our model. Second, using the relation of Galand and Richmond [2001], we calculate the height integrated ionospheric conductances as a function of the precipitated high energy magnetospheric electrons and ions that are produced by our code. To validate the results of our model we simulate the magnetic storm of May 2, 1986, a storm that has has been comprehensively studied, and compare our results with different theoretical approaches. The self-consistent inclusion of the hot electrons and, their effect on the conductance results in deeper penetration of the magnetospheric electric field. In addition, a slight westward rotation of the potential pattern (compared to previous self-consistent results) is evident in the inner magnetosphere. This changes the hot plasma distribution, especially by allowing increased access of plasma sheet ions and electrons to low L shells.

Khazanov, G. V.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hindcast Skill Assessment of Ridging Events Related to Drought Over the Western United States

Persistent atmospheric ridging events centered near the western United States are associated with widespread precipitation deficits and meteorological drought. Due to the relatively low skill of- dynamical models in forecasting precipitation on subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) time scales across this region, forecasts of ridging are explored in this study as a potential bridge for early warning drought prediction. To assess skill, we evaluate deterministic and probabilistic S2S hindcasts (out to 6 week lead time) of ridging events and geopotential height anomalies over the western United States in five ensemble hindcast systems. Prediction skill for ridging events is shown to be highly variable across models. For some models, longer‐time‐averaged patterns of geopotential height anomalies across the first 6 weeks can be skillfully simulated, when evaluated probabilistically against climatology. The most skillful models show modest skill in forecasting above normal ridging occurrences at lead times of Weeks 3–4 and Weeks 5–6,with some sensitivity to the specific ridge location and method for determining skill. Using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model as a case study, longer lead time forecast busts are shown to often occur under extended periods of highly active La Nina‐like tropical convection. Model errors at simulating these tropical convection features may have a disproportionately large impact and degrade downstream forecasts over the western United States. Despite the documented model shortcomings, our results highlight an opportunity to target skillful ridging forecasts from dynamical models for improving early warning drought forecasting at S2S lead times.

S2S↗
NASA NTRS1987

Theoretical study of the high-latitude ionosphere's response to multicell convection patterns

A time-dependent three-dimensional model of the high-latitude ionosphere is used to study the characteristic ionospheric signatures associated with two-, three-, and four-cell plasma convection patterns. It is found that, for two-cell convection, the antisunward flow of plasma from the dayside into the polar cap acts to maintain the densities in this region in winter. For four-cell convection, the two additional convection cells in the polar cap are in darkness most of the time, and the resulting O(+) decay acts to produce twin polar holes that are separated by a sun-aligned ridge of enhanced ionization due to theta-auroral precipitation. For three-cell convection, only one polar hole forms in the total electron density, and an additional O(+) depletion region develops near noon. In this region there are strong electric fields, high ion temperatures, and an enhanced rate of O(+) - NO(+) conversion.

Sojka, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2000

On the Origin of Monsoon

The notion that the continental-scale land-sea contrast is the main reason that monsoon circulation exists has been a long-held belief. The purpose of this paper is to point out that this notion should be substantially modified. The central idea of this notion states that in summer, radiative heating of the continent, say Asia, gives rise to a continental-scale thermal low and surrounding the thermal low in its southeast direction the low level wind flows in from south-west. This low-level inflow creates a convergence of moisture, which maintains the cumulus convection. And in winter, radiative cooling of continent gives rise to a thermal high and to its southeast the low-level wind is from northeast. The mechanism in this interpretation does undoubtedly exist. However, this mechanism, though believed to be the main driving force of monsoon, has not been tested in numerical experiments. There has been an increasing recognition in the recent years that monsoon is inextricably tied to the heating in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). We propose that the main cause of monsoon is ITCZ's being substantially away from the equator. A brief qualitative explanation of why the ITCZ can be a source of monsoon circulation can be offered based on the circulation field forced by the ITCZ heating. The existence of the ITCZ's does not always have to rely on land-sea contrast on the continental scale. This is hinted in the fact that in February the ITCZ close to Australia (and its associated monsoon circulation) covers a longitudinal range several times as long as that of Australia and thus cannot possibly be caused mainly by the land-sea contrast associated with Australia. Yet, this cannot be used as a proof that the ITCZ in the Asian summer monsoon is not mainly due to land-sea contrast. One of the purposes of this work is to provide a convincing proof. In this work the role of land-sea contrast in the origin of monsoon is examined through numerical simulation with the Goddard general circulation model. The Asian and Australian monsoon circulations are obtained in a four-year integration and then the integration is repeated with Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia replaced by ocean. The sea surface temperature (SST) at each affected grid is specified as the SST at the first grid to the east that is an ocean grid in the first experiment. The latter integration shows that the monsoon circulation pattern over where south Asia and Australia were and the surrounding region has largely remained. The results discount land-sea contrast as the main cause of Asian monsoon. A third experiment is the same as the first except that the topography of Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia is reduced to zero. This experiment reveals that the difference between the first two experiments is due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. August precipitation is shown averaged over the last three years of each of the three experiments. They show that the Asian monsoon rainy region is largely intact in the second experiment and the difference between the second and the third experiment is mainly in the longitudinal location of the maximum precipitation. Additionally, in Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a modifying role. Although land-sea contrast plays only a modifying role in Asian and Australian (and Central American including Mexican) monsoons, it is the main reason that ITCZ (and thus monsoon) exists in Africa and South America. Thus, monsoons can be classified into two groups depending on whether land-sea contrast plays a major role.

Chao, Winston C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Self-Consistent Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling

A self-consistent ring current (RC) model has been developed that couples electron and ion magnetospheric dynamics with the calculation of the electric field. Two new features were taken into account in order to close the self-consistent magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling loop. First, in addition to the RC ions, we have solved an electron kinetic equation in our model. Second, using the relation of Galand and Richmond, we have calculated the height integrated ionospheric conductances as a function of the precipitated high energy magnetospheric electrons and ions that are produced by our model. To validate the results of our model we simulate the magnetic storm of May 2, 1986, a storm that has been comprehensively studied by Fok et al., and have compared our results with different theoretical approaches. The self-consistent inclusion of the hot electrons and their effect on the conductance results in deeper penetration of the magnetospheric electric field. In addition, a slight westward rotation of the potential pattern (compared to previous self-consistent results) is evident in the inner magnetosphere. These effects change the hot plasma distribution, especially by allowing increased access of plasma sheet ions and electrons to low L shells.

Six, N. Frank↗
NASA NTRS2012

Highlights of the First 15 Months of Aquarius Salinity Measurements

Aquarius satellite salinity measurements are resolving the major global and regional spatial patterns, and temporal variations, since the start of routine data collection on 25 August 2011. This description includes the principal seasonal variations over the first annual cycle as observed by the mission. In particular, we identify the evolution of low salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic and Pacific intertropical convergence zones (ITCZ), major river outflows such as the Amazon, a seasonal low salinity anomaly in the Panama bight, and other features. We also explore the links that the salinity variations have with precipitation and surface currents. We then will describe the variations related to the presently evolving 2012 El Nino, now evident, as it progresses through the summer and fall 2012. We conclude with a brief summary of the Aquarius data products and validation

Lagerloef, Gary S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Negative extreme events in gross primary productivity and their drivers in China during the past three decades

Climate extremes have remarkable impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase with future global warming. However, only few studies have focused on the ecological extreme events and their drivers in China. In this study, we carried out an analysis of negative extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) in China and the sub-regions during 1982–2015, using monthly GPP simulated by 12 process-based models (TRENDYv6) and an observation-based model (Yao-GPP). Extremes were defined as the negative 5th percentile of GPP anomalies, which were further merged into individual extreme events using a three-dimensional contiguous algorithm. Spatio-temporal patterns of negative GPP anomalies were analyzed by taking the 1000 largest extreme events into consideration. Results showed that the effects of extreme events decreased annual GPP by 2.8% (i.e. 208 TgC/year) in TRENDY models and 2.3% (i.e. 151 TgC/year) in Yao-GPP. Hotspots of extreme GPP deficits were mainly observed in North China (−53 gC/sq.m year) in TRENDY models and Northeast China (−42 gC/sq.m year) in Yao-GPP. For China as a whole, attribution analyses suggested that extreme low precipitation was associated with 40%–50% of extreme negative GPP events. Most events in northern and western China could be explained by meteorological droughts (i.e. low precipitation) while GPP extreme events in southern China were more associated with temperature extremes, in particular with cold spells. GPP was revealed to be much more sensitive to heat/drought than to cold/wet extreme events. Combined with projected changes in climate extremes in China, GPP negative anomalies caused by drought events in northern China and by temperature extremes in southern China might be more prominent in the future.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS1988

Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission

It has long been noted that anomalies in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropics are strongly correlated with climate in the temperate latitudes on a seasonal time scale. The ability to measure the global SST and the atmospheric pressure/temperature patterns has made great progress. However, rainfall measurement, the putative connection between the two, is poorly accomplished. The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) was conceived to fill this gap. The TRMM spacecraft would fly in a low inclination, (about 35 deg), orbit which would concentrate the sampling in the very important tropical latitudes. The precession of such an orbit would enable observations at all times of the day over the span of a month which would permit corrections for the diurnal cycle of precipitation which is quite marked in parts of the tropics. The payload of the TRMM spacecraft is carefully designed to provide accurate measurements of rain. It consists of microwave radiometers, a microwave radar and visible/infrared radiometer. The two types of microwave instruments provide direct measurements of the hydrometeors, each having strengths which compensate for weaknesses of the other. The VIS/IR instrument provides a connection to the long time series of VIS/IR measurements from polar and Geosynchronous spacecraft which are currently the best available source of global rainfall estimates. The TRMM is currently in a phase A (feasibility) study.

Wilheit, T. T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Texture-Polarization Method for Estimating Convective/Stratiform Precipitation Area Coverage from Passive Microwave Radiometer Data

Observational and modeling studies have described the relationships between convective/stratiform rain proportion and the vertical distributions of vertical motion, latent heating, and moistening in mesoscale convective systems. Therefore, remote sensing techniques which can quantify the relative areal proportion of convective and stratiform, rainfall can provide useful information regarding the dynamic and thermodynamic processes in these systems. In the present study, two methods for deducing the convective/stratiform areal extent of precipitation from satellite passive microwave radiometer measurements are combined to yield an improved method. If sufficient microwave scattering by ice-phase precipitating hydrometeors is detected, the method relies mainly on the degree of polarization in oblique-view, 85.5 GHz radiances to estimate the area fraction of convective rain within the radiometer footprint. In situations where ice scattering is minimal, the method draws mostly on texture information in radiometer imagery at lower microwave frequencies to estimate the convective area fraction. Based upon observations of ten convective systems over ocean and nine systems over land, instantaneous 0.5 degree resolution estimates of convective area fraction from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TRMM TMI) are compared to nearly coincident estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR). The TMI convective area fraction estimates are slightly low-biased with respect to the PR, with TMI-PR correlations of 0.78 and 0.84 over ocean and land backgrounds, respectively. TMI monthly-average convective area percentages in the tropics and subtropics from February 1998 exhibit the greatest values along the ITCZ and in continental regions of the summer (southern) hemisphere. Although convective area percentages. from the TMI are systematically lower than those from the PR, monthly rain patterns derived from the TMI and PR rain algorithms are very similar. TMI rain depths are significantly higher than corresponding rain depths from the PR in the ITCZ, but are similar in magnitude elsewhere.

Olson, William S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Extreme Soil Moisture Patterns over the Sahel during the 2020 Growing Season

The African Sahel is an ecologically and climatically sensitive region, and thus is a valuable test case for examination of climate extremes. Above-average rainfall during the 2020 growing season (June-October) led to flooding in the West, Central and East Sahel, with implications for infrastructure, agriculture and disease outbreaks. In this study, we evaluate soil moisture patterns in the region during 2020 to assess and quantify the extremeness of the event. The primary tool is the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 surface soil moisture data. Daily, monthly, and seasonal anomalies are computed relative to SMAP’s long-term mean (2015-2021). Additional comparisons are made with longer-time-series data sets, including surface soil moisture from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2(MERRA-2; 1981-present) and precipitation from the African Rainfall Climatology, Version 2 (ARC2; 1983-present).Possible drivers of the extreme wet event are examined, including potential links to the concurrent 2020-21 La Niña event. Finally, we explore the connections between the extreme soil moisture and vector-borne disease outbreaks in the region in2020, namely, Rift Valley Fever in Mauritania and Chikungunya in Chad.

Soil Moisture↗
NASA NTRS1998

A 10-Year Climatology of Amazonian Rainfall Derived from Passive Microwave Satellite Observations

In this study we present and describe a satellite-derived precipitation climatology over northern South America using a passive microwave technique, the Goddard Profiling Algorithm. A period of data slightly longer than 10 years is examined. The climatologies take the form of the mean estimated (adjusted) rainfall for a 10-year (+) period, with sub-divisions by month and meteorological season. For the six-year period 1992-1997, when two satellites were in operation, diurnal variability (to the extent it is discerned by four unequally spaced observations) is presented. We find an alternating pattern of morning and maxima stretching from the northeast (Atlantic coast) clear across the continent to the Pacific. The effects of topography, coastlines and geography (river valleys) on the rainfall patterns are clear. Interannual variability is examined by computing the deviations of yearly and warm season (DJF) rainfall from their respective long-term means. Interannual variability of the diurnal nature of the rainfall is presented, and the strong El Nino event of 1997-1998 is discussed.

Negri, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

HSP86 and HSP84 exhibit cellular specificity of expression and co-precipitate with an HSP70 family member in the murine testis

This study extends to the protein level our previous observations, which had established the stage and cellular specificity of expression of hsp86 and hsp84 in the murine testis in the absence of exogenous stress. Immunoblot analysis was used to demonstrate that HSP86 protein was present throughout testicular development and that its levels increased with the appearance of differentiating germ cells. HSP86 was most abundant in the germ cell population and was present at significantly lower levels in the somatic cells. By contrast, the HSP84 protein was detected in the somatic cells of the testis rather than in germ cells. The steady-state levels of HSP86 and HSP84 paralleled the pattern of the expression of their respective mRNAs, suggesting that regulation at the level of translation was not a major mechanism controlling hsp90 gene expression in testicular cells. Immunoprecipitation analysis revealed that a 70-kDa protein coprecipitated with the HSP86/HSP84 proteins in testicular homogenates. This protein was identified as an HSP70 family member by immunoblot analysis, suggesting that HSP70 and HSP90 family members interact in testicular cells.

NASA Discipline Number 40-20↗
NASA NTRS1989

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary scale wave interactions: Observational study

A blocking pattern which formed over eastern North America following the landfall of Hurricane Juan during November 1985 was investigated. It is hypothesize that latent heat released in the Hurricane's rainfall was either directly or indirectly responsible for the large observed 500 mb height rises over eastern Canada during the formation of this block. This idea is evaluated with a diagnostic model for the height tendency field which includes latent heat release as a forcing function. The total column heating is calculated using satellite-derived precipitation estimates. These estimates are qualitatively congruent with observations, but overestimate light rainfall and underestimate heavy rainfall. The calculations reveal that the direct contribution of the heating to the 500 mb height tendency field is small relative to the quasigeostrophic forcing. However, maxima in heating coincide with regions where anticyclonic potential vorticity is generated. Once such region is just upstream of the location of large 500 mb height rises in the incipient block. An indirect role is proposed for the heating in this case. Specifically, anticyclonic potential vorticity is generated near the heating maxima; this vorticity is then advected downstream, forcing the 500 mb heights to rise and the block to develop.

Colucci, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Proposed Model for Protein Crystal Nucleation and Growth

How does one take a molecule, strongly asymmetric in both shape and charge distribution, and assemble it into a crystal? We propose a model for the nucleation and crystal growth process for tetragonal lysozyme, based upon fluorescence, light, neutron, and X-ray scattering data, size exclusion chromatography experiments, dialysis kinetics, AFM, and modeling of growth rate data, from this and other laboratories. The first species formed is postulated to be a 'head to side' dimer. Through repeating associations involving the same intermolecular interactions this grows to a 4(sub 3) helix structure, that in turn serves as the basic unit for nucleation and subsequent crystal growth. High salt attenuates surface charges while promoting hydrophobic interactions. Symmetry facilitates subsequent helix-helix self-association. Assembly stability is enhanced when a four helix structure is obtained, with each bound to two neighbors. Only two unique interactions are required. The first are those for helix formation, where the dominant interaction is the intermolecular bridging anion. The second is the anti-parallel side-by-side helix-helix interaction, guided by alternating pairs of symmetry related salt bridges along each side. At this stage all eight unique positions of the P4(sub3)2(sub 1),2(sub 1) unit cell are filled. The process is one of a) attenuating the most strongly interacting groups, such that b) the molecules begin to self-associate in defined patterns, so that c) symmetry is obtained, which d) propagates as a growing crystal. Simple and conceptually obvious in hindsight, this tells much about what we are empirically doing when we crystallize macromolecules. By adjusting the growth parameters we are empirically balancing the intermolecular interactions, preferentially attenuating the dominant strong (for lysozyme the charged groups) while strengthening the lesser strong (hydrophobic) interactions. In the general case for proteins the lack of a singularly defined association pathway may lead to formation of multiple species, i.e., amorphous precipitation. Weak interactions, such as hydrogen bonds, are promiscuous, serving to strengthen rather than define specific interactions. Participation in an interaction sequesters that surface from subsequent interactions, and we expect the strongest bonds to form first. This model, its basis, how it fits into the currently understood osmotic second virial coefficient approach to crystallization, and what it suggests will be discussed.

Pusey, Marc↗
NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Changes in Water Availability in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo del Norte Basin Under the Influence of Large-Scale Circulation Indices Using the Noah Land Surface Model

Water availability plays an important role in the socio-economic development of a region. It is however, subject to the influence of large-scale circulation indices, resulting in periodic excesses and deficits. An assessment of the degree of correlation between climate indices and water availability, and the quantification of changes with respect to major climate events is important for long-term water resources planning and management, especially in transboundary basins as it can help in conflict avoidance. In this study we first establish the correlation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with gauged precipitation in the Rio Grande basin, and quantify the changes in water availability using runoff generated from the Noah land surface model. Both spatial and temporal variations are noted, with winter and spring being most influenced by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Negative correlation is observed at the headwaters and positive correlation across the rest of the basin. The influence of individual ENSO events, classified using four different criteria, is also examined. El Ninos (La Ninas) generally cause an increase (decrease) in runoff, but the pattern is not consistent; percentage change in water availability varies across events. Further, positive PDO enhances the effect of El Nino and dampens that of La Nina, but during neutral/transitioning PDO, La Nina dominates meteorological conditions. Long El Ninos have more influence on water availability than short duration high intensity events. We also note that the percentage increase during El Ninos significantly offsets the drought-causing effect of La Ninas.

Khedun, C. Prakash↗