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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

prognosis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Virtual refrigerant charge sensor for variable-speed heat pumps based on feature selection

The refrigerant charge level in heat pump systems significantly impacts their energy efficiency. Virtual refrigerant charge (VRC) sensing technology has been comprehensively investigated and well-established due to its lower cost compared to physical sensors. However, the previous VRC research often relied on expert judgment and physical reasoning for their variable selection, which can potentially select redundant (or highly correlated) or insignificant features, and it is also primarily focused on single-speed systems. To address these challenges, this study proposes a VRC algorithm for variable-speed heat pumps that selects features through a rigorous feature selection method in combination with physical insights. We also propose a piecewise linear model structure segmented by subcooling temperature to accurately predict charge levels, particularly when subcooling temperatures are substantially low. The proposed algorithm was evaluated using experimental data of a residential R410A heat pump, and the performance was compared with two baseline VRC algorithms. The results are: (1) The proposed algorithm outperforms for the case with subcooling temperature less than 1 °C. (2) The proposed algorithm achieves a tested mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.23%, and improves the overall accuracy for cooling conditions by approximately 60%, compared with the two baseline algorithms. (3) The proposed algorithm uses two fewer features and improves the accuracy for undercharge cooling conditions by 68.0%, compared with baseline algorithm 2. These improvements enhance prediction accuracy and prevent overfitting, providing a more reliable refrigerant charge level prediction and helping improve the heat pump energy efficiency.

Liang, Chenjiyu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Refrigerant Charge Sensing Method for Next-Generation Refrigerant in Residential Heat Pumps

The charge level of refrigerant in heat pump systems significantly affects their operational performance. Virtual refrigerant charge (VRC) sensing technology has been well-established for traditional refrigerants (HFCs and HCFCs) for its low cost compared to physical sensors. However, other than traditional refrigerants, HFOs are increasingly used in next-generation heat pumps; whether these conventional VRC sensing methods remain applicable for heat pump systems utilizing next-generation refrigerants requires further investigation. To address these issues, this study develops a low-cost VRC sensing method for next-generation refrigerant heat pumps used in residential buildings. The developed algorithm is evaluated by using simulation models to evaluate the accuracy, considering an R454B heat pump with a nominal heating capacity of 51K Btu/hr (14.95 kW) as an example, and compared with those of the two reference VRC sensing algorithms. Though the developed VRC sensing algorithm and the two reference methods can accurately predict the charge level for the R454B heat pump system (with mean absolute percentage error for various cooling and heating conditions less than 7%), the developed VRC sensing algorithm uses fewer sensors and improves the overall accuracy for heating conditions by 7.1%, and the accuracy for undercharge cooling conditions 14.2%, compared with a mainstream algorithm. This technology will complement physical leakage detectors, and promote the adoption of next-generation heat pump systems, along with reducing wasted energy and maintenance costs.

Liang, Chenjiyu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Generalized Guidance Approach to In-Space Solid-Propellant Vehicle Maneuvers

Exploration-class vehicles that require fully autonomous ascent and descent must employ robust, explicit path-adaptive guidance algorithms that can operate in a wide range of physical environments. Vehicle designs that employ solid-propellant rocket motors (SRMs) for maneuvers are attractive from a systems engineering perspective because of their simplicity and reliability, but may cause complications for both mission designers and GNC engineers when dealing with total impulse uncertainty, as well as proper energy management of a motor with an uncontrolled cutoff time. This paper presents a simplified guidance algorithm, named Simple Cross-Product Steering (SxS), that was derived during early studies of NASA’s Mars Sample Return mission’s Mars Ascent Vehicle. The algorithm takes roots in a flight-proven guidance algorithm commonly referred to as Cross-Product Steering. SxS has been shown to provide sufficient guidance accuracy for in-space SRM burns in a simulated Martian environment, and preliminary studies have been conducted to test the algorithm in a solid-propellant lunar braking scenario. A method for predicting proper motor ignition time during execution of the Cross-Product Steering algorithm is the primary contribution of this paper. Mechanization notes are also provided that were realized in early phases of MAV. Results are shown for an example ascent vehicle in a simulated Mars environment.

GNC↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Generalized Guidance Approach to In-Space Solid-Propellant Vehicle Maneuvers

Exploration-class vehicles that require fully autonomous ascent and descent must employ robust, explicit path-adaptive guidance algorithms that can operate in a wide range of physical environments. Vehicle designs that employ solid-propellant rocket motors (SRMs) for maneuvers are attractive from a system engineering perspective because of their simplicity and reliability but may cause complications for both mission designers and GNC engineers when dealing with total impulse uncertainty, as well as proper energy management of a motor with an uncontrolled cutoff time. This paper presents a simplified guidance algorithm, named Simple Cross-Product Steering (SxS), that was derived during early studies of NASA’s Mars Sample Return mission’s Mars Ascent Vehicle. The algorithm takes roots in a flight-proven guidance algorithm commonly referred to as Cross-Product Steering. This algorithm has been shown to provide sufficient guidance accuracy for in-space SRM burns in a simulated Martian environment, and preliminary studies have been conducted to test the algorithm in a solid-propellant lunar braking scenario. A method for predicting proper motor ignition time during execution of the Cross-Product Steering algorithm is the primary contribution of this paper. Mechanization notes are also provided that were realized in early phases of MAV. Results are shown for an example ascent vehicle a simulated Mars environment.

Jason M Everett↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided discovery of polymer membranes for CO 2 separation with genetic algorithm

Designing polymer membranes with high gas permeability and selectivity is a difficult multi-task constrained problem due to the trade-off between these two properties. In this work, we present a machine learning (ML) driven genetic algorithm to tackle the design problem of polymer membranes for CO 2 separation from N 2 and O 2 . Using literature data of permeability for three gases, we constructed multiple ML models with different fingerprinting featurization schemes to predict gas permeabilities. Then, we employed a genetic algorithm to design new polymers and evaluated their performance using our ML models. We were able to identify new polymer membranes that are promising for both CO 2 /N 2 and CO 2 /O 2 separations. Further, the top discovered polymers are predicted to have high glass transition temperatures. Similarly, the pyridine functionality was found in ≈20% of the predicted polymers. This framework can be used to design polymers for any application involving constrained optimization. Finally, we outlined the challenges and opportunities with using ML guided data-driven inverse design of polymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2002

Convectively Induced Turbulence Encountered During NASA's Fall-2000 Flight Experiments

Aircraft encounters with atmospheric turbulence are a leading cause of in-flight injuries aboard commercial airliners and cost the airlines millions of dollars each year. Most of these injuries are due to encounters with turbulence in and around convection. In a recent study of 44 turbulence accident reports between 1990 and 1996, 82% of the cases were found to be near or within convective activity (Kaplan et al. 1999). According to NTSB accident reports, pilots' descriptions of these turbulence encounters include 'abrupt', 'in Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC)', 'saw nothing on the weather radar', and 'the encounter occurred while deviating around' convective activity. Though the FAA has provided guidelines for aircraft operating in convective environments, turbulence detection capability could decrease the number of injuries by alerting pilots of a potential encounter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, through its Aviation Safety Program, is addressing turbulence hazards through research, flight experiments, and data analysis. Primary focus of this program element is the characterization of turbulence and its environment, as well as the development and testing of hazard estimation algorithms for both radar and in situ detection. The ultimate goal is to operationally test sensors that will provide ample warning prior to hazardous turbulence encounters. In order to collect data for support of these activities, NASA-Langley's B-757 research aircraft was directed into regions favorable for convectively induced turbulence (CIT). On these flights, the airborne predictive wind shear (PWS) radar, augmented with algorithms designed for turbulence detection, was operated in real time to test this capability. In this paper, we present the results of two research flights when turbulence was encountered. Described is an overview of the flights, the general radar performance, and details of four encounters with severe turbulence.

Hamilton, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Maneuvering Rotorcraft Noise Prediction: A New Code for a New Problem

This paper presents the unique aspects of the development of an entirely new maneuver noise prediction code called PSU-WOPWOP. The main focus of the code is the aeroacoustic aspects of the maneuver noise problem, when the aeromechanical input data are provided (namely aircraft and blade motion, blade airloads). The PSU-WOPWOP noise prediction capability was developed for rotors in steady and transient maneuvering flight. Featuring an object-oriented design, the code allows great flexibility for complex rotor configuration and motion (including multiple rotors and full aircraft motion). The relative locations and number of hinges, flexures, and body motions can be arbitrarily specified to match the any specific rotorcraft. An analysis of algorithm efficiency is performed for maneuver noise prediction along with a description of the tradeoffs made specifically for the maneuvering noise problem. Noise predictions for the main rotor of a rotorcraft in steady descent, transient (arrested) descent, hover and a mild "pop-up" maneuver are demonstrated.

Brentner, Kenneth S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Algorithmic Classification of Raman Spectra Biosignatures: Improving Life Detection Confidence

“Agnostic” biosignatures – indicators of life (or the absence of life), independent of a particular biochemistry – are increasingly considered a high standard for life detection. The Ladder of Life Detection (2018) called for investigating how combinations of independent and different potential biosignatures affect confidence. To address this gap, statistical classification of elemental abundances, isotopic fractionation, and reflectance spectroscopy (VNIR) has been implemented. Raman spectroscopy, highly desirable due to its wide availability, has the potential to improve this predictive power. This work implemented biosignature classification algorithms on Raman data alone, in preparation for combination with the other data types. Raman spectroscopy data was collected from published databases and papers as part of a manually curated dataset of “indicative” and “non-indicative of life” samples. These currently include 61 non-indicative samples (meteorites, magnetite); 3 indicative living samples (bacteria); 20 indicative non-living samples (chalk, bone); and 12 indicative mixed (with non-indicative material) samples (soil, microbial mats). Laboratory work is ongoing to characterize additional samples, particularly a greater breadth of mixed systems. Spectra were interpolated, filtered with the Savitzsky-Golay filter, and de-noised. For a preliminary examination, agnostic features were manually extracted including mean intensity, number of peaks, and mean peak width. Different peak prominences and filtering polynomials were used to refine features. Classification algorithms were implemented: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), Gaussian naïve bayes (GNB). Lastly, Monte Carlo simulations on 1,000 50%-train-test-splits were used to validate classification performance and feature significance. The preliminary feature set achieved its highest AUC of 0.52 with LR, with no strongly discriminatory features. Work to improve feature extraction, such as through deep learning with back propagation, is planned. In future work, the Raman data will be combined with the other data types, and potentially new data types such as enantiomeric excess. This project was partially supported through the NASA Ames Project EXcellence (APEX) incubator program.

Astrobiology↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling Key Predictors of Airport Runway Configurations Using Learning Algorithms

Advanced traffic flow management automation will need accurate predictions of airport runway configurations. Terminal area weather and traffic demand are generally considered to be the most significant factors in predicting runway configuration. Weather information is forecasted across multiple features, including wind direction, wind speed, gusts, cloud ceilings, visibility, temperature, and precipitation, among many others. We use machine learning techniques on historical weather and runway data to determine weather features that correlate well with runway configurations. We analyze the predictive capability of weather features using different learning models trained on data from four major U.S. airports: Atlanta (ATL), Washington – Dulles (IAD), New York – Kennedy (JFK), and San Francisco (SFO). Wind direction alone is strongly correlated with runway configurations above all other examined factors, as expected. This correlation is the most significant component of the ~80% prediction accuracy in selecting between the two most frequently used runway configurations. However, individual airports show variations on how well the runway configuration decisions correlate with wind direction. While wind direction was identified as the most significant indicator of configuration decisions in ATL, IAD, and JFK, it did not emerge as such at SFO. Traffic demand was not found to be a strong factor in predicting runway configurations at any of the airports analyzed. In rare instances, when high demand cannot be accommodated within the current configuration, temporary changes are likely to be attributable to demand. However, these occurrences are so limited in number that their overall effect is not sufficient to consider traffic demand as a major indicator of runway configuration at the airports analyzed.

Bilimoria, Karl D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory and Comparison with Pre-Flight Predictions

The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air- data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Virtual refrigerant charge sensing algorithm for residential CO₂ heat pumps

Natural refrigerants are increasingly adopted in next-generation heat pump systems, among which CO₂ heat pumps have attracted significant attention. However, due to their high operating pressures, the leakage risk is higher, resulting in undercharge conditions and degraded heat pump performance. Thus, developing an accurate refrigerant charge level detection technique is necessary to guarantee safe and efficient operation. Although virtual refrigerant charge (VRC) level calculation algorithms for CO₂ heat pumps exist, they typically rely on empirically selected features without a systematic selection framework, leading to multicollinearity and potential overfitting, which limit their prediction accuracy and generalizability. To address these issues, this study proposes a VRC algorithm framework with a systematic feature selection method that identifies physically meaningful and statistically significant features, and is applied using a residential CO₂ heat pump as a case study. The method is extended from previous work on conventional refrigerants to account for charge behavior in CO₂ gas coolers. The selected features include gas cooler outlet density, evaporator pressure, and superheat temperature. The results demonstrate that the proposed feature selection method significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to existing VRC approaches. A relatively small training dataset (∼30 samples) is sufficient for feature identification and model development. The developed algorithm achieves less than 3% prediction error under both undercharge and overcharge conditions, representing reductions of 46.7% and 35.3% compared to two recent reference VRC algorithms for transcritical CO₂ heat pumps reported in the literature. The proposed algorithm and feature selection method enhance leakage detection capability, facilitate the deployment of CO₂ heat pump systems, and contribute to reduced energy waste and maintenance costs.

Guo, Fangzhou [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗
NASA NTRS2010

Formal Verification of Air Traffic Conflict Prevention Bands Algorithms

In air traffic management, a pairwise conflict is a predicted loss of separation between two aircraft, referred to as the ownship and the intruder. A conflict prevention bands system computes ranges of maneuvers for the ownship that characterize regions in the airspace that are either conflict-free or 'don't go' zones that the ownship has to avoid. Conflict prevention bands are surprisingly difficult to define and analyze. Errors in the calculation of prevention bands may result in incorrect separation assurance information being displayed to pilots or air traffic controllers. This paper presents provably correct 3-dimensional prevention bands algorithms for ranges of track angle; ground speed, and vertical speed maneuvers. The algorithms have been mechanically verified in the Prototype Verification System (PVS). The verification presented in this paper extends in a non-trivial way that of previously published 2-dimensional algorithms.

Narkawicz, Anthony J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Kerr Reservoir LANDSAT experiment analysis for November 1980

An experiment was conducted on the waters of Kerr Reservoir to determine if reliable algorithms could be developed that relate water quality parameters to remotely sensed data. LANDSAT radiance data was used in the analysis since it is readily available and covers the area of interest on a regular basis. By properly designing the experiment, many of the unwanted variations due to atmosphere, solar, and hydraulic changes were minimized. The algorithms developed were constrained to satisfy rigorous statistical criteria before they could be considered dependable in predicting water quality parameters. A complete mix of different types of algorithms using the LANDSAT bands was generated to provide a thorough understanding of the relationships among the data involved. The study demonstrated that for the ranges measured, the algorithms that satisfactorily represented the data are mostly linear and only require a maximum of one or two LANDSAT bands. Rationing techniques did not improve the results since the initial design of the experiment minimized the errors that this procedure is effective against. Good correlations were established for inorganic suspended solids, iron, turbidity, and secchi depth.

Lecroy, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development and Testing of Data Mining Algorithms for Earth Observation

The new algorithms developed under this project included a principled procedure for classification of objects, events or circumstances according to a target variable when a very large number of potential predictor variables is available but the number of cases that can be used for training a classifier is relatively small. These "high dimensional" problems require finding a minimal set of variables -called the Markov Blanket-- sufficient for predicting the value of the target variable. An algorithm, the Markov Blanket Fan Search, was developed, implemented and tested on both simulated and real data in conjunction with a graphical model classifier, which was also implemented. Another algorithm developed and implemented in TETRAD IV for time series elaborated on work by C. Granger and N. Swanson, which in turn exploited some of our earlier work. The algorithms in question learn a linear time series model from data. Given such a time series, the simultaneous residual covariances, after factoring out time dependencies, may provide information about causal processes that occur more rapidly than the time series representation allow, so called simultaneous or contemporaneous causal processes. Working with A. Monetta, a graduate student from Italy, we produced the correct statistics for estimating the contemporaneous causal structure from time series data using the TETRAD IV suite of algorithms. Two economists, David Bessler and Kevin Hoover, have independently published applications using TETRAD style algorithms to the same purpose. These implementations and algorithmic developments were separately used in two kinds of studies of climate data: Short time series of geographically proximate climate variables predicting agricultural effects in California, and longer duration climate measurements of temperature teleconnections.

Glymour, Clark↗
NASA NTRS2010

Life Sciences Implications of Lunar Surface Operations

The purpose of this report is to document preliminary, predicted, life sciences implications of expected operational concepts for lunar surface extravehicular activity (EVA). Algorithms developed through simulation and testing in lunar analog environments were used to predict crew metabolic rates and ground reaction forces experienced during lunar EVA. Subsequently, the total metabolic energy consumption, the daily bone load stimulus, total oxygen needed, and other variables were calculated and provided to Human Research Program and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate stakeholders. To provide context to the modeling, the report includes an overview of some scenarios that have been considered. Concise descriptions of the analog testing and development of the algorithms are also provided. This document may be updated to remain current with evolving lunar or other planetary surface operations, assumptions and concepts, and to provide additional data and analyses collected during the ongoing analog research program.

Chappell, Steven P.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A High Performance Computing Approach to Tree Cover Delineation in 1-m NAIP Imagery Using a Probabilistic Learning Framework

Tree cover delineation is a useful instrument in deriving Above Ground Biomass (AGB) density estimates from Very High Resolution (VHR) airborne imagery data. Numerous algorithms have been designed to address this problem, but most of them do not scale to these datasets, which are of the order of terabytes. In this paper, we present a semi-automated probabilistic framework for the segmentation and classification of 1-m National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) for tree-cover delineation for the whole of Continental United States, using a High Performance Computing Architecture. Classification is performed using a multi-layer Feedforward Backpropagation Neural Network and segmentation is performed using a Statistical Region Merging algorithm. The results from the classification and segmentation algorithms are then consolidated into a structured prediction framework using a discriminative undirected probabilistic graphical model based on Conditional Random Field, which helps in capturing the higher order contextual dependencies between neighboring pixels. Once the final probability maps are generated, the framework is updated and re-trained by relabeling misclassified image patches. This leads to a significant improvement in the true positive rates and reduction in false positive rates. The tree cover maps were generated for the whole state of California, spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles. The framework produced true positive rates of around 88% for fragmented forests and 74% for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2% for both landscapes. Comparative studies with the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) algorithm and the LiDAR canopy height model (CHM) showed the effectiveness of our framework for generating accurate high-resolution tree-cover maps.

Segments↗