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Results for “Predictive Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

A Continuum Damage Mechanics Model to Predict Kink-Band Propagation Using Deformation Gradient Tensor Decomposition

A new model is proposed that represents the kinematics of kink-band formation and propagation within the framework of a mesoscale continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model. The model uses the recently proposed deformation gradient decomposition approach to represent a kink band as a displacement jump via a cohesive interface that is embedded in an elastic bulk material. The model is capable of representing the combination of matrix failure in the frame of a misaligned fiber and instability due to shear nonlinearity. In contrast to conventional linear or bilinear strain softening laws used in most mesoscale CDM models for longitudinal compression, the constitutive response of the proposed model includes features predicted by detailed micromechanical models. These features include: 1) the rotational kinematics of the kink band, 2) an instability when the peak load is reached, and 3) a nonzero plateau stress under large strains.

Bergan, Andrew C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Development of low Reynolds number two equation turbulence models for predicting external heat transfer on turbine blades

A research effort was underway to study the use of two equation low Reynolds number turbulence models in predicting gas side heat transfer on turbine blades. The major objectives of this work are basicly threefold: study the predictive capabilities of two equation low Reynolds number turbulence models under the conditions characteristic of modern gas turbine blades; explore potential improvements to the models themselves as well as to the specification of initial conditions; and provide a comparison of the predictions of these models with the experimental data from a broad range of recently available turbine cascade experiments. The problems associated with predicting the boundary layer transition from laminar to turbulent flow are emphasized, as this may be the most serious deficiency of current modeling techniques. The results and conclusions of the first two phases are briefly described.

Patankar, Suhas V.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A model to predict the removal of oxygen from air using a zirconia solid electrolyte membrane

A finite difference mathematical model has been developed to predict the removal of oxygen from air using a zirconia separation cell. The model predicts the electrical and mass transfer processes in circular disk cells with either axial or radial current flow in the electrodes and in tubular cells with axial current flow in the electrodes. Representative results are presented and discussed.

Marner, W. J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aero-Engines AI - A Machine-Learning App for Aircraft Engine Concepts Assessment

Effective deployment of machine-learning (ML) models could drive a high level of efficiency in aircraft engine conceptual design. Aero-Engines AI is a user-friendly app that has been created to deploy trained machine-learning (ML) models to assess aircraft engine concepts. It was created using tkinter, a GUI (graphical user interface) module that is built into the standard Python library. Employing tkinter greatly facilitates the sharing of ML application as an executable file which can be run on Windows machines (without the need to have Python or any library installed). The app gets user input for a turbofan design, preprocesses the input data, and deploys trained ML models to predict turbofan thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, core size, and turbomachinery stage-counts. The ML predictive models were built by employing supervised deep-learning and K-nearest neighbor regression algorithms to study patterns in an existing open-source database of production and research turbofan engines. They were trained, cross-validated, and tested in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application programming interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (Google open-source artificial intelligence library) serving as the backend engine. The smooth deployment of these ML models using the app shows that Aero-Engines AI is an easy-touse and a time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. Current version of the app focuses on the performance prediction of conventional turbofans. However, the scope of the app can easily be expanded to include other engine types (such as turboshaft and hybrid-electric systems) after their ML models are developed. Overall, the use of a machine-learning app for aircraft engine concept assessment represents a promising area of development in aircraft engine conceptual design.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2023

Aero-Engines AI - A Machine-Learning App for Aircraft Engine Concepts Assessment

Effective deployment of machine-learning (ML) models could drive a high level of efficiency in aircraft engine conceptual design. Aero-Engines AI is a user-friendly app that has been created to deploy trained machine-learning (ML) models to assess aircraft engine concepts. It was created using tkinter, a GUI (graphical user interface) module that is built into the standard Python library. Employing tkinter greatly facilitates the sharing of ML application as an executable file which can be run on Windows machines (without the need to have Python or any library installed). The app gets user input for a turbofan design, preprocesses the input data, and deploys trained ML models to predict turbofan thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, core size, and turbomachinery stage-counts. The ML predictive models were built by employing supervised deep-learning and K-nearest neighbor regression algorithms to study patterns in an existing open-source database of production and research turbofan engines. They were trained, cross-validated, and tested in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application programming interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (Google open-source artificial intelligence library) serving as the backend engine. The smooth deployment of these ML models using the app shows that Aero-Engines AI is an easy-touse and a time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. Current version of the app focuses on the performance prediction of conventional turbofans. However, the scope of the app can easily be easily expanded to include other engine types (such as turboshaft and hybrid-electric systems) after their ML models are developed. Overall, the use of a machine-learning app for aircraft engine concept assessment represents a promising area of development in aircraft engine conceptual design.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-29139-DND

The Arctic has been warming at a rate outpacing globally-averaged warming by 2-3 times, a phenomenon known as "Arctic Amplification" (AA). AA is evident in observations of Arctic surface temperature over the last century as well as in model predictions. The accuracy of model predictions is crucial to determine our response to climate change, as Arctic changes have consequences for the atmospheric circulation, sea level rise, and the carbon cycle. Unfortunately, models show a wide range of possible futures and intermodel spread in projections of Arctic temperature is larger than for any other region: a 2°C global temperature increase- the limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement- would lead to an Arctic temperature change between 3-7°C according to Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 (CMIP5) models. This intermodel spread represents a key deficiency in the understanding of Arctic feedback processes and how changes in various physical parameters (e.g. sea ice cover, clouds, heat transport and surface fluxes) affect the temperature response. Using a process-oriented decomposition of the simulate Arctic surface energy budget, we attribute the largest contribution to the CMIP5 intermodel spead in projected Arctic warming to the Barents-Kara Sea region. Our results reveal that the increasing seasonal fluxing of ocean heat content is a significant part of the intermodel spread in AA and relates strongly to change in surface turbulent fluxes. Our results indicate that if we are to significantly reduce the intermodel spread in projected AA we must focus on understanding the behavior and physical processes that drive surface energy flows in the B-K sea region.

Patrick Taylor↗
NASA NTRS2008

Modeling and Prediction of Fan Noise

Fan noise is a significant contributor to the total noise signature of a modern high bypass ratio aircraft engine and with the advent of ultra high bypass ratio engines like the geared turbofan, it is likely to remain so in the future. As such, accurate modeling and prediction of the basic characteristics of fan noise are necessary ingredients in designing quieter aircraft engines in order to ensure compliance with ever more stringent aviation noise regulations. In this paper, results from a comprehensive study aimed at establishing the utility of current tools for modeling and predicting fan noise will be summarized. It should be emphasized that these tools exemplify present state of the practice and embody what is currently used at NASA and Industry for predicting fan noise. The ability of these tools to model and predict fan noise is assessed against a set of benchmark fan noise databases obtained for a range of representative fan cycles and operating conditions. Detailed comparisons between the predicted and measured narrowband spectral and directivity characteristics of fan nose will be presented in the full paper. General conclusions regarding the utility of current tools and recommendations for future improvements will also be given.

Envia, Ed↗
NASA NTRS1980

A comparison of radiative transfer models for predicting the microwave emission from soils

Two general types of numerical models for predicting microwave emission from soils are compared-coherent and noncoherent. In the former, radiation in the soil is treated coherently, and the boundary conditions on the electric fields across the layer boundaries are used to calculate the radiation intensity. In the latter, the radiation is assumed to be noncoherent, and the intensities of the radiation are considered directly. The results of the two approaches may be different because of the effects of interference, which can cause the transmitted intensity at the surface (i.e., emissivity) to be sometimes higher and sometimes lower for the coherent case than for the noncoherent case, depending on the relative phases of reflected fields from the lower layers. This coupling between soil layers in the coherent models leads to greater soil moisture sampling depths observed with this type of model, and is the major difference that is found between the two types of models. In noncoherent models, the emissivity is determined by the dielectric constraint at the air/soil interface. The subsequent differences in the results are functions of both the frequency of the radiation being considered and the steepness of the moisture gradient near the surface. The calculations were performed at frequencies of 1.4 and 19.4 GHz and for two sets of soil profiles. Little difference was observed between the models at 19.4 GHz; and only at the lower frequency were differences apparent because of the greater soil moisture sampling depth at this frequency.

Schmugge, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Vertically Flow-Following, Icosahedral Grid Model for Medium-Range and Seasonal Prediction. Part 1: Model Description

A hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain following/ isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icosahedral, shallow-water model featuring user-selectable horizontal resolution and employing indirect addressing techniques. The vertical grid is adaptive to maximize the portion of the atmosphere mapped into the isentropic coordinate subdomain. The model, best described as a stacked shallow-water model, is being tested extensively on real-time medium-range forecasts to ready it for possible inclusion in operational multimodel ensembles for medium-range to seasonal prediction.

mathematical models↗
DOE OSTI2025

A predictive analytical model of electrical transport in multi-principal-element alloys

A predictive analytical model is presented for the electrical conductivity of multi-principal-element alloys (MPEAs), including those containing aluminum, transition metals, and refractory metals. Given that the lattice parameter of the Wigner-Seitz cell of an MPEA is similarly variable to a bulk metallic glass, it is postulated that electron scattering can be approximated by a series of two-level systems. Here, the resulting reduced-order model enabled an accurate determination of electrical resistivity and electron thermal conductivity based on the scattering of electrons in a two-level system across a Bloch-potential-based virtual crystal approximation. Model results are compared to experimental four-point probe electrical resistivity measurements between 300 K and 700 K for Al 0.3 CoCrCuFeNi, CoCrFeMnNi, (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.98 W 0.02 , (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.95 W 0.05 , and Nb 4 Ta 4 V 3 Ti, for model validation.

Analytical model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updates on the Predictive Materials Modeling Software Tools

Updates on NASA‘s efforts to build a Predictive Material Modeling (PMM) framework from the micro-scale to the macro-scale are presented in this abstract. The PMM effort is part of the Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) project under NASA’s Game Changing Development (GCD) program. To reduce the need for extensive testing and accelerate the design cycle process, ESM is developing simulation and modeling tools that enable the characterization of the properties of thermal protection materials and their response to extremely hot plasma. The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software has been developed to compute effective material properties and perform material response simulations on digitized microstructures of porous media. PuMA is able to import three-dimensional digital images obtained from X-ray microtomography or to generate artificial microstructures that mimic real materials. PuMA also provides a module for interactive 3D visualizations. Version 3, which was recently released as open-source, includes modules to compute simple morphological properties such as porosity, volume fractions, pore diameter, and specific surface area. Additional capabilities include the determination of effective thermal and electrical conductivity (both radiative and solid conduction - including the ability to simulate local anisotropy for the latter); effective diffusivity and tortuosity from the continuum to the rarefied regime; techniques to determine the local material orientation, as well as mechanical properties (elasticity coefficients), and permeability. Computed properties are then used to inform a macro-scale material response model, such as those implemented in the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software developed within ESM. The computational model in PATO is a generic heat and mass transfer model for porous reactive materials containing several solid phases and a single gas phase. The detailed chemical interactions occurring between the solid phases and the gas phase are modeled at the pore scale, assuming Local Thermal Equilibrium. Recent efforts include the development of a mechanical erosion model as well as a unified model allowing an intrinsic coupling between fluid and material. Comparison to flight data (Mars Science Laboratory [MSL] Entry Descent and Landing Instrument [MEDLI] and Mars 2020 MEDLI2) is critical in order to validate these computational tools. Examples of ablative material response using the code will be presented, including 3D simulations of the full-scale heatshield of the MSL capsule. The simulations demonstrated the ability of the modern material response code, PATO, to handle the material response of geometrically complex and large domains through the use of massively parallel computations.

material modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physical, socio-psychological, and behavioural determinants of household energy consumption in the UK

Determining which attitudes and behaviours predict household energy consumption can help accelerate the low-carbon energy transition. Conventional approaches in this domain are limited, often relying on survey methods that produce data on individuals’ motivations and self-reported activities without pairing these with actual energy consumption records, which are particularly hard to collect for large, nationally representative samples. This challenge precludes the development of empirical evidence on which attitudes and behaviours influence patterns of energy consumption, thus limiting the extent to which these can inform energy interventions or conservation programs. This study demonstrates a novel methodology for estimating energy consumption in the absence of actual energy records by using a large, publicly available data set of energy consumption in the UK. We develop a predictive model using the Smart Energy Research Laboratory (SERL) data portal (with records from nearly 13,000 UK households) and then use this model to predict energy consumption (both electric and gas) for a sample of 1,000 UK householders for which we separately collect over 200 variables relating to climate change attitudes and practices. Our approach uses a set of over 50 independent variables that are shared between the data sets, allowing us to train a model on the SERL data and use it to analyse the relationship between energy consumption and the opinions, motivations, and daily practices of survey respondents. Results show that electricity consumption is influenced by a broader range of factors compared to gas. Household energy use is best explained by physical dwelling characteristics, socio-demographic variables, and certain behavioural and attitudinal measures. Notably, pro-environmental attitudes, frugality, and conscientiousness correlate with lower energy use, while income and consumerism are linked to higher consumption. We discuss how these findings can inform efforts to decarbonise home energy use in the UK.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2004

Defect measurement and analysis of JPL ground software: a case study

Ground software systems at JPL must meet high assurance standards while remaining on schedule due to relatively immovable launch dates for spacecraft that will be controlled by such systems. Toward this end, the Software Quality Improvement (SQI) project's Measurement and Benchmarking (M&B) team is collecting and analyzing defect data of JPL ground system software projects to build software defect prediction models. The aim of these models is to improve predictability with regard to software quality activities. Predictive models will quantitatively define typical trends for JPL ground systems as well as Critical Discriminators (CDs) to provide explanations for atypical deviations from the norm at JPL. CDs are software characteristics that can be estimated or foreseen early in a software project's planning. Thus, these CDs will assist in planning for the predicted degree to which software quality activities for a project are likely to deviation from the normal JPL ground system based on pasted experience across the lab.

defects↗
NASA NTRS1977

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 4: Forecast model sensitivity study

Atmospheric analysis and prediction models of varying (grid) resolution were developed. The models were tested using real observational data for the purpose of assessing the impact of grid resolution on short range numerical weather prediction. The work statement was amended to include the performance of sensitivity tests using a coarse mesh (63 x 63 x 5 level) prediction model in order to identify and order factors which might mask or impair the utility of SEASAT data on short range weather prediction. Such factors included: initial conditions; topography; surface friction; latent heating; diffusion of momentum and temperature; and computational devices such as tendency truncators, pressure smoothers, and temporal filters.

Lewit, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Development of an analytical-numerical model to predict radiant emission or absorption

The development of an analytical-numerical model to predict radiant emission or absorption is discussed. A voigt profile is assumed to predict the spectral qualities of a singlet atomic transition line for atomic species of interest to the OPAD program. The present state of this model is described in each progress report required under contract. Model and code development is guided by experimental data where available. When completed, the model will be used to provide estimates of specie erosion rates from spectral data collected from rocket exhaust plumes or other sources.

Wallace, Tim L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

Lyatskaya, S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal loading effects on chalk hydromechanical behavior for nuclear waste disposal

Safe disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste depends on host rock stability under thermal, hydrological, and mechanical stresses. This study investigates the effect of thermal loading on mechanical behavior of the shallowly buried Ghareb formation chalk through triaxial and hydrostatic constant strain rate and creep tests at temperatures up to 100 ˚C and effective pressures up to 20.7 MPa. Experimental results show that thermal loading reduces the elastic moduli of chalk by 50–75%, and a transition occurs above 60 ˚C where creep rates increase rapidly. Water saturation nearly doubles the thermally induced strain compared to dry conditions and strongly decreases material rigidity. Thermal loading also leads to significant pore pressure increases under undrained conditions and leads to reductions in the apparent permeability during drained conditions. Laboratory experimental data were used to parameterize and develop a preliminary constitutive model for predicting future deformation during repository operations in the Ghareb. The strongly coupled effects – mechanical weakening, fluid pressure fluctuations, and permeability modification – demonstrate that elevated repository temperatures will have a pronounced effect on the near field Ghareb behavior during waste disposal operations. The findings indicate that the coupled interactions must be considered in predictive models and repository design to ensure long-term nuclear waste isolation and safety.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗