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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the accuracy of Hipparcos using binary stars as a calibration tool

Stellar binary systems, specifically those that present the most accurate available orbital elements, are a reliable tool to test the accuracy of astrometric observations. We selected all 35 binaries with these characteristics. Our objective is to provide standard uncertainties for the positions and parallaxes measured by Hipparcos relative to this trustworthy set, as well as to check supposed correlations between several parameters (measurement residuals, positions, magnitudes, and parallaxes). In addition, using the high-confidence subset of visual–spectroscopic binaries, we implemented a validation test of the Hipparcos trigonometric parallaxes of binary systems that allowed the evaluation of their reliability. Standard and non-standard statistical analysis techniques were applied in order to achieve well-founded conclusions. In particular, errors-in-variables models such as the total least-squares method were used to validate Hipparcos parallaxes by comparison with those obtained directly from the orbital elements. Previously, we executed Thompson's τ technique in order to detect suspected outliers in the data. Furthermore, several statistical hypothesis tests were carried out to verify if our results were statistically significant. A statistically significant trend indicating larger Hipparcos angular separations with respect to the reference values in 5.2 ± 1.4 mas was found at the 10{sup −8} significance level. Uncertainties in the polar coordinates θ and ρ of 1.°8 and 6.3 mas, respectively, were estimated for the Hipparcos observations of binary systems. We also verified that the parallaxes of binary systems measured in this mission are absolutely compatible with the set of orbital parallaxes obtained from the most accurate orbits at least at the 95% confidence level. This methodology allows us to better estimate the accuracy of Hipparcos observations of binary systems. Indeed, further application to the data collected by Gaia should yield a standard procedure to compare both data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Multi-operator Production Cost Modeling

As contiguous power systems are often operated by several regional system operators, optimization models have traditionally been designed to generate optimal system-wide scheduling decisions. This report introduces an approach to reflect the existence of multiple system operators making scheduling decisions within an interconnected power system. The approach is explicitly designed to reflect each operator's limited knowledge about other regions when making scheduling decisions. Detailed analysis using a modified IEEE Reliability Test System reveals that the approach mimics real system operations by providing imperfect information to each operator about external operations and external constraints. The approach scales to a 78,000-bus model of the Eastern Interconnection, where a regression analysis provides quantitative insight into which constraints cause inefficiencies when improperly managed in a multi-operator simulation. Because the approach generates distinct regional scheduling problems, unit commitment and economic dispatch simulations can be applied to individual regions and solved in parallel, enabling production cost simulations at a previously intractable scale.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2012

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Update (Presentation)

Understand and isolate sources of gearbox failures; Improve understanding of internal loads and response; Normal operation and transients; Improve analysis tools to accurately simulate response; Improve ability to reproduce field response in dyno testing; Evaluate how CM augments design and O&M.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

An Energy-Based Limit State Function for Estimation of Structural Reliability in Shock Environments

limit state function is developed for the estimation of structural reliability in shock environments. This limit state function uses peak modal strain energies to characterize environmental severity and modal strain energies at failure to characterize the structural capacity. The Hasofer-Lind reliability index is briefly reviewed and its computation for the energy-based limit state function is discussed. Applications to two degree of freedom mass-spring systems and to a simple finite element model are considered. For these examples, computation of the reliability index requires little effort beyond a modal analysis, but still accounts for relevant uncertainties in both the structure and environment. For both examples, the reliability index is observed to agree well with the results of Monte Carlo analysis. In situations where fast, qualitative comparison of several candidate designs is required, the reliability index based on the proposed limit state function provides an attractive metric which can be used to compare and control reliability.

Guthrie, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

CalWave Open Water Demo - FMEA Update Budget Period 2

The Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a qualitative reliability technique for systematically analyzing each possible failure mode within a hardware system, and identifying the resulting effect on that system, the mission, and the personnel. This submission includes an updated FMEA summary for CalWave's open water demonstration including pre- and post-mitigation results, hazard identification (HAZID) analysis, and component/function rooted FMEA.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Regression Testing

Via programs including the Light Water Reactor Sustainability and Integrated Energy Systems, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) software framework (Idaho National Laboratory 2024a) for the technical and economic analysis of nuclear-integrated energy systems (IES). Nuclear IES expand the use of nuclear from traditional baseload electricity generation to a flexible and adaptive source of combined heat and power. Nuclear heat can be used in the production of a variety of energy currencies such as hydrogen and ammonia as well as other heat applications including water desalination and district heating. FORCE is designed with the intent to provide interconnected analysis tools that enable the accurate technical and economic assessment of specific nuclear IES configurations for individual energy markets. FORCE consists of three main analysis pathways: HYBRID (Idaho National Laboratory 2024b), which contains high-resolution physical models for IES; Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024c), which analyzes IES long-term economic viability; and Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024d), designed for real-time control of IES via digital twins and optimal decision making, including autonomous and remote operation research. Development of the FORCE ecosystem is guided by three pillars: capability, which assures that the computational requirements of IES analysis are met by the software tools; reliability, which provides for consistent code performance and expected behaviors; and accessibility, which lowers the barrier to entry for using the software and accelerates analysis by users beyond the FORCE primary developers. Reliability of the FORCE ecosystem is established according to the American Nuclear Society?s Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) program [American Society of Mechanical Engineers 1982], with specific levels of software quality assurance (SQA) within NQA-1 applied to each software tool in FORCE. As the tools within FORCE have matured, some integration algorithms to accurately connect the software tools for holistic analysis have been developed and deployed within the FORCE software repository. In accordance with NQA-1 standards, regression tests are required to guarantee the software performs consistently even when new capabilities are added to the software. In this report, we document the deployment of both unit tests, which test the consistent behavior of small pieces of the FORCE code base, as well as integration tests, which test the consistent performance of full use cases for the FORCE integration algorithms. We further document the encapsulation of these tests within a test harness, which collectively checks for each successful test completion on demand. Finally, we document the automation of the test harness using GitHub Actions [GitHub 2024], which require all tests succeed before any new capability or other changes can be added to the FORCE integration software

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive Analytics for Hydropower Fleet Intelligence

A primary challenge in hydropower industry is the ability to maintain cost-competitiveness, reliability, and security of hydropower assets through evolving power system contexts and aging of the fleet. Maintaining cost-effective and reliable operations under these conditions is expected to require new modernization and maintenance paradigms for changing contexts. Changes in existing practices for O&M will require an understanding of the current state and health of hydropower assets, and the impact of changing paradigms on asset health and reliability. The Hydropower Fleet Intelligence project is developing and evaluating standardized methodologies and analysis tools for data-driven asset reliability and management technologies for hydropower, leading to eventual predictive maintenance planning, repair/replacement decision making, and asset-reliability and cost-optimized operations. A key question is the feasibility of using existing data sets at hydropower facilities to perform assessments of asset reliability. This document uses data from hydropower facilities to assess the potential for using available analytics methods for asset reliability estimates. In addition to reliability assessments, the feasibility of using existing analytics techniques for several other potential applications is discussed. Finally, a case study that a data-driven model is trained to learn nominal operations via vibration data from an asset of a certain plant, and then utilized to identify anomalies on a similar asset from a different plant, highlighting the generic use of proposed Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) approaches.

Yucesan, Yigit↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal and Statistical Mapping of Transition Metal Equilibria in Alkaline Media

Transition metal dissolution and redeposition (D/R) kinetics in alkaline media play a critical role in various chemical and electrochemical processes. Competitive reaction kinetics between different transition metals can modulate individual metal behavior in these processes. To date, these phenomena have remained largely unmeasured, and even when captured, they are difficult to statistically characterize due to their dynamic nature, simultaneous occurrence, and spatially heterogeneous nature. Here, in this study, we develop a statistical analysis framework based on in situ and operando X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to investigate the relative D/R kinetics of multiple transition metals in alkaline media. By employing statistical analysis, we quantify the spatial distribution of D/R species and assess the rate at which the system reaches equilibrium under varying reaction conditions. We show that pH does not simply change the rate of dissolution and redeposition, but reorganizes the cross-element kinetic correlations among Ni, Fe, and Mn and accelerates the spatial equilibration of D/R events, as quantified through correlation analysis, reaction-rate estimation, probability function distributions, and texture-based monitoring statistics. Additionally, we demonstrate how modifying the solvent environment can influence D/R kinetics, providing a pathway for tuning materials synthesis and process optimization. Our study offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between different transition metals and provides a reliable statistical framework for spatial analysis of diverse imaging data sets, enabling deeper extraction of latent information across multiple modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Numerical Uncertainties vs. Model Uncertainties in Two-phase Flow Simulations

In recent years, verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) have become a common practice in thermal-hydraulics analysis. In general, these activities deal with propagations of uncertainties in computer code simulations, e.g., through system analysis codes. However, most existing such activities in thermal-hydraulics analysis have been primarily focused on model uncertainties, while numerical uncertainties were largely overlooked. Numerical uncertainties (or numerical errors) can appear in many different forms, e.g., round-off error, statistical sampling error, and discretization error. As pointed out by Oberkampf and Roy, discretization error is usually the largest however the most difficult type of error to estimate reliably. In thermal-hydraulics analysis, especially two-phase flow simulations commonly encountered in reactor safety analysis, the lack of consideration on discretization error is mainly due to the difficulty in estimating them. Accurate estimations on discretization error require continuous mesh refinement and/or implementation of high-order numerical schemes in system analysis code, both of which are unfortunately difficult to achieve for existing codes. At first, it should be emphasized that mesh refinement (or mesh sensitivity study) is a well-understood concept in the thermal-hydraulics field. However, it is not commonly practiced for many reasons, e.g., lack of understanding on numerical errors by code users, consideration on computational cost, deteriorated numerical stability performance with refined meshes, and etc. Secondly, high-order (e.g., second-order) numerical schemes are simply unavailable in almost any existing system analysis code. Implementation of high-order numerical schemes in these codes is difficult, if not impossible, given the complexity of these codes. On the other hand, people tend to argue that numerical uncertainties (or discretization error as we have emphasized) are not as important as the commonly large uncertainties in two-phase flow models, e.g., closure correlations. As a result, nodalization is sometimes played unintentionally, or maybe intentionally, to match experimental data, which is referred as 'user effects' or 'compensating errors' in thermal-hydraulics community. Such a practice is highly criticized by Levy. In this work, we will at first build a computer code that incorporates both first-order and second-order numerical methods to solve the two-phase flow problems. The first-order method resembles the one used in many existing system analysis codes; and the second-order method works as the reference to estimate numerical errors. Numerical verifications on spatial discretization schemes will be presented in the form of mesh convergence study. It will also be demonstrated that, in practical scenarios, discretization errors can be as large as, or even larger than, model uncertainties via case studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hardware-accelerated inference for real-time gravitational-wave astronomy

The field of transient astronomy has seen a revolution with the first gravitational-wave detections and the arrival of multi-messenger observations they enabled. Transformed by the first detection of binary black hole and binary neutron star mergers, computational demands in gravitational-wave astronomy are expected to grow by at least a factor of two over the next five years as the global network of kilometer-scale interferometers are brought to design sensitivity. With the increase in detector sensitivity, real-time delivery of gravitational-wave alerts will become increasingly important as an enabler of multi-messenger followup. In this work, we report a novel implementation and deployment of deep learning inference for real-time gravitational-wave data denoising and astrophysical source identification. This is accomplished using a generic Inference-as-a-Service model that is capable of adapting to the future needs of gravitational-wave data analysis. Overall, our implementation allows seamless incorporation of hardware accelerators and also enables the use of commercial or private (dedicated) as-a-service computing. Based on our results, we propose a paradigm shift in low-latency and offline computing in gravitational-wave astronomy. Such a shift can address key challenges in peak-usage, scalability and reliability, and provide a data analysis platform particularly optimized for deep learning applications. The achieved sub-millisecond scale latency will also be relevant for any machine learning-based real-time control systems that may be invoked in the operation of near-future and next generation ground-based laser interferometers, as well as the front-end collection, distribution and processing of data from such instruments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploratory analysis of high-resolution power interruption data reveals spatial and temporal heterogeneity in electric grid reliability

Modern grid monitoring equipment enables utilities to collect detailed records of power interruptions. Here, these data are aggregated to compute publicly reported metrics describing high-level characteristics of grid performance. The current work explores the depth of insights that can be gained from public data, and the implications of losing visibility into heterogeneity in grid performance through aggregation. We present an exploratory analysis examining three years of high-resolution power interruption data collected by archiving information posted in real-time on the public-facing website of a utility in the Western United States. We report on the size, frequency and duration of individual power interruptions, and on spatio-temporal variability in aggregate reliability metrics. Our results show that metrics of grid performance can vary spatially and temporally by orders of magnitude, revealing heterogeneity that is not evidenced in publicly reported metrics. We show that limited access to granular information presents a substantive barrier to conducting detailed policy analysis, and discuss how more widespread data access could help to answer questions that remain unanswered in the literature to date. Lastly, given open questions about whether grid performance is adequate to support societal needs, we recommend establishing pathways to make high-resolution power interruption data available to support policy research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Backup Power Performance of Solar-plus-Storage Systems during Routine Power Interruptions: A Case Study Application of Berkeley Lab’s PRESTO Model

This technical brief estimates the expected performance of a solar photovoltaic and energy storage system (PVESS) for providing backup power during short-duration power interruption events, accounting for the unpredictable nature of those events. The analysis relies on the Power Reliability Event Simulation TOol (PRESTO), a publicly available model developed by Berkeley Lab to simulate the occurrence of short-duration power interruption events at the county-level. A separate storage dispatch model is then used to simulate PVESS operation and backup performance for each of the large number of interruption events produced by PRESTO. In performing this simulation, the analysis accounts for how the customer operates its battery on a day-to-day basis—in this case, we assume the battery is cycled each day in response to time-of-use rates—and how that, in turn, impacts the battery’s state of charge at the beginning of each interruption event. The analysis presented here is intended to demonstrate an application of the PRESTO model as well as to illustrate some of the key determinants of PVESS backup power performance during short-duration power interruption events. The analysis focuses initially on a typical single-family home in Maricopa County, Arizona, and includes a limited set of scenarios related to system sizing, backup power configuration, and whether the customer charges its battery storage system from the grid during normal operating conditions. The analysis also presents comparative results for two other counties, in Massachusetts (Middlesex) and California (Los Angeles), illustrating how regional differences in climate, interruption patterns, and retail rate structures can affect PVESS performance as a backup power source. In the conclusions, we highlight a number of other important considerations for evaluating PVESS backup power capabilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

A review of dark fermentative hydrogen production from biodegradable municipal waste fractions

Highlights: ► A large number of factors affect fermentative hydrogen production. ► Harmonization and systematic comparison of results from different literature sources are needed. ► More than 80 publications on H{sub 2} production from food waste and OFMSW have been examined. ► Experimental data from the reviewed literature were analyzed using statistical tools. ► For a reliable assessment of the process performance, the use of multiple parameters appears to be recommended. - Abstract: Hydrogen is believed to play a potentially key role in the implementation of sustainable energy production, particularly when it is produced from renewable sources and low energy-demanding processes. In the present paper an attempt was made at critically reviewing more than 80 recent publications, in order to harmonize and compare the available results from different studies on hydrogen production from FW and OFMSW through dark fermentation, and derive reliable information about process yield and stability in view of building related predictive models. The review was focused on the effect of factors, recognized as potentially affecting process evolution (including type of substrate and co-substrate and relative ratio, type of inoculum, food/microorganisms [F/M] ratio, applied pre-treatment, reactor configuration, temperature and pH), on the fermentation yield and kinetics. Statistical analysis of literature data from batch experiments was also conducted, showing that the variables affecting the H{sub 2} production yield were ranked in the order: type of co-substrate, type of pre-treatment, operating pH, control of initial pH and fermentation temperature. However, due to the dispersion of data observed in some instances, the ambiguity about the presence of additional hidden variables cannot be resolved. The results from the analysis thus suggest that, for reliable predictive models of fermentative hydrogen production to be derived, a high level of consistency between data is strictly required, claiming for more systematic and comprehensive studies on the subject.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pipe Parity Analysis of Seawater Desalination in the United States: Exploring Costs, Energy, and Reliability via Case Studies and Scenarios of Emerging Technology

As climate change-induced variables exacerbate water scarcities, the use of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) membrane desalination technology for treating seawater could potentially provide a long-term drought-proof source of drinking water. This study carried out a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) for three SWRO desalination plants in the U.S. and one in Israel to set baselines for the cost and energy consumption for seawater desalination. In addition, a breakeven curve for implementing SWRO desalination was estimated in relation to the cost of water conservation measures to meet drought-induced reduction of the traditional water supply. The results show that the cost of SWRO water production scales with the plant capacity while energy intensity is not dramatically different across the plants. The higher cost in some U.S. plants is due to high capital investment, including land acquisition and permitting. Variations in plant capacity utilization have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of water (LCOW) over the plant service life, suggesting the importance of reducing fouling and maintenance-related downtime. Scenario analysis of fixed labor cost reduction through process automation indicates investments in automation and sensing technology could result in long-term savings. Breakeven analysis shows the decision to adopt SWRO is highly dependent on the local cost associated with water conservation to meet water supply reduction. Moreover, a small reduction in SWRO cost can influence a shift toward the adoption of SWRO over water conservation measures. Incorporation of future water demand, water conservation potential, and water stress data around the nation indicates SWRO desalination could be an important contributor to the future municipal drinking water portfolio in the U.S.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient Implementation of Artificial Neural Networks for Sensor Data Analysis Based on a Genetic Algorithm

The reliability of many industrial processes depends on the sensor system. However, these sensors can be affected by noise, perturbations and failures. Hence, sensor monitoring and diagnosis are fundamental to guarantee the quality of an industrial process. Nowadays, artificial neural networks (ANN) are widely used in sensor signal processing and diagnosis. However, those ANNs usually require many artificial neurons, being difficult to implement in software and hardware due to their high computational costs. This paper presents an optimized implementation of artificial neurons in ANNs for sensor data analysis using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The objective of GA is to find an adequate segmentation to reduce the activation function approximation error. One of the advantages of the proposed approach is that the cost function used in GA considers the effect of factors such as the ANN architecture or the number of bits used in arithmetic operations. The proposed ANN implementation technique aims to get the best possible approximation for a specific ANN architecture, making easier its implementation in software and hardware. Simulation and experimental results using FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) prove the advantages of the proposed approach for implementing sensor data analysis systems based on ANNs.

D estefani, André↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bridging the Gap between the X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy and the Computational Catalysis Communities in Heterogeneous Catalysis: A Perspective on the Current and Future Research Directions

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) [extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES)] is a key technique within the heterogeneous catalysis community to probe the structure and properties of the active site(s) for a diverse range of catalytic materials. Furthermore, the interpretation of the raw experimental data to derive an atomistic picture of the catalyst requires modeling and analysis; the EXAFS data are compared to a model, and a goodness of fit parameter is used to judge the best fit. This EXAFS modeling can often be nontrivial and time-consuming; overcoming or improving these limitations remains a central challenge for the community. Considering these limitations, this Perspective highlights how recent developments in analysis software, increased availability of reliable computational models, and application of data science tools can be used to improve the speed, accuracy, and reliability of EXAFS interpretation. In particular, we emphasize the advantages of combining theory and EXAFS as a unified technique that should be treated as a standard (when applicable) to identify catalytic sites and not two separate complementary methods. Building on the recent trends in the computational catalysis community, we also present a community-driven approach to adopt FAIR Guiding Principles for the collection, analysis, dissemination, and storage of XAS data. Written with both the experimental and theory audience in mind, we provide a unified roadmap to foster collaborations between the two communities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reliability of emergency and standby diesel generators: Impact on energy resiliency solutions

Emergency diesel generators are the most common form of backup power for critical loads when the grid fails and are most often deployed as stand-alone generators (<2000 kW) tied to individual buildings for hospitals, emergency services, military bases, ports, airports, industries, and commercial facilities. Understanding the finite reliability of emergency diesel generators during continuous operation is critical for energy planners, managers, and end-users. A new analysis of two large non-public emergency diesel generator operational data sets shows that commonly used reliability metrics are inadequate to predict the performance during a grid outage. Additional metrics addressing the likelihood of an emergency diesel generator to be available at the time an outage starts, successfully start and carry load, and constantly run for the duration of the outage are needed to predict the continuous run-time reliability of emergency diesel generators during a grid outage. This is the first analysis of the reliability of modern generators that follow standard maintenance protocols commonly used for backup power and these new metrics are shown to be dependent on the level of emergency diesel generator maintenance with values that can vary by more than an order of magnitude. Even using the new metrics for well-maintained emergency diesel generators, the analysis shows that the single emergency diesel generators configurations are only 80% likely to provide power for the duration of a two-week grid outage.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗