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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

Lillesand, T. M.↗

Footprint prediction of scalar fluxes - Reliability and implications for airborne flux measurements over the FIFE site

Estimates of the location and extension of the upwind ground area that affects flux observations most directly are examined to determine the reliability of airborne versus near-ground flux measurements. The theoretical issues regarding the 'footprint' are examined, and specific observations are analyzed by studying the data over a grid regarding sensible heat, latent heat, CO2, and greenness. The grid is footprint-corrected to correlate better with independently observed surface characteristics, and an optimized footprint is developed that satisfies the relationships between the observed variables. Optimized mapping of the surface flux is given which demonstrates the importance of considering local advection to correlate airborne and ground-based flux observations. The technique is particularly applicable to situations in which significant variations in the surface flux density exist.

Schuepp, P. H.↗

Reliability Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering, with Model- Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) leading the way, is transforming design and analysis methodologies. The recognized benefits to systems development include moving from document-centric information systems and document-centric project communication to a model-centric environment in which control of design changes in the life cycles is facilitated. In addition, a “single source of truth” about the system, that is up-to-date in all respects of the design, becomes the authoritative source of data and information about the system. This promotes consistency and efficiency in regard to integration of the system elements as the design emerges and thereby may further optimize the design. Therefore Reliability Engineers (REs) supporting NASA missions must be integrated into model-based engineering to ensure the outputs of their analyses are relevant and value-needed to the design, development, and operational processes for failure risks assessment and communication.

FMEA/FMECA↗

Reliability and Durability Testing of Glass Ceramic Seals for Praxair’s Oxygen Transport Membranes

Praxair has been developing Oxygen Transport Membrane (OTM) systems for the efficient conversion of natural gas to syngas which can subsequently be used in chemical synthesis, generation of industrial gases (H2, CO) or synthesis of liquid fuels. One of the technical barriers for commercialization of this technology is the reliability of key components of OTM systems – Seals and Membranes. Praxair has been testing these components at the process conditions expected for commercial systems. However, long-term durability data is currently limited and is not sufficiently available to make well informed predictions of OTM reliability which represents one of the major risks that could prevent the technology from being fully commercialized. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing high temperature seals and ceramic membranes for applications similar to OTM systems such as Solid Oxide Fuel Cells. The goal of the cooperative development between Praxair and PNNL is to generate long-term data such that there is sufficient confidence in the OTM seal and membrane reliability predictions to enable the process technology to be fully commercialized.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Physics-informed graph neural networks for predicting cetane number with systematic data quality analysis

Designing alternative fuels for advanced compression ignition engines necessitates a predictive model for cetane number (CN). In this study, the physics-informed graph neural networks are introduced for a reliable CN prediction by considering molecular features pertinent to the physical properties of molecules that affect CN. The reliability of measured data is another key factor to consider for improving the predictive model. Various experimental instruments for measuring CN exist, including standard and non-standard methods. In this regard, a systematic data quality analysis was carried out for the total 630 CNs collected from literature and new measurements in this study using Advanced Fuel Ignition Delay Analyzer (AFIDA). The results from this data curation process were reflected in the model by imposing lower sample weights on the data coming from less reliable measurement techniques. This approach effectively maximized the prediction accuracy while incorporating data from all available sources. Using the sample weights decreased the mean absolute error (MAE) up to 0.8 CN units. The accuracy was also improved by introducing the CN-related physical properties (the number of hydrogen bond donors and acceptors); the test set MAE is 5.74 and 7.01 for the model with and without such properties, respectively. Investigating molecular structural effects on CN was also carried out to gain chemical insights into factors used to design new fuel candidates. The dimensionality reduction analysis of feature vectors showed a clear clustering in terms of functional groups and CN and the structural effect derived from the model was consistent with the physicochemical insights. Finally, this physics-informed model and data curation would be helpful for accurate CN prediction and inform rational fuel design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reliable and explainable machine-learning methods for accelerated material discovery

Abstract Despite ML’s impressive performance in commercial applications, several unique challenges exist when applying ML in materials science applications. In such a context, the contributions of this work are twofold. First, we identify common pitfalls of existing ML techniques when learning from underrepresented/imbalanced material data. Specifically, we show that with imbalanced data, standard methods for assessing quality of ML models break down and lead to misleading conclusions. Furthermore, we find that the model’s own confidence score cannot be trusted and model introspection methods (using simpler models) do not help as they result in loss of predictive performance (reliability-explainability trade-off). Second, to overcome these challenges, we propose a general-purpose explainable and reliable machine-learning framework. Specifically, we propose a generic pipeline that employs an ensemble of simpler models to reliably predict material properties. We also propose a transfer learning technique and show that the performance loss due to models’ simplicity can be overcome by exploiting correlations among different material properties. A new evaluation metric and a trust score to better quantify the confidence in the predictions are also proposed. To improve the interpretability, we add a rationale generator component to our framework which provides both model-level and decision-level explanations. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of our technique on two applications: (1) predicting properties of crystalline compounds and (2) identifying potentially stable solar cell materials. We also point to some outstanding issues yet to be resolved for a successful application of ML in material science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Software reliability report

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Unfortunately, the models appear to be unable to account for the random nature of the data. If the same code is debugged multiple times and one of the models is used to make predictions, intolerable variance is observed in the resulting reliability predictions. It is believed that data replication can remove this variance in lab type situations and that it is less than scientific to talk about validating a software reliability model without considering replication. It is also believed that data replication may prove to be cost effective in the real world, thus the research centered on verification of the need for replication and on methodologies for generating replicated data in a cost effective manner. The context of the debugging graph was pursued by simulation and experimentation. Simulation was done for the Basic model and the Log-Poisson model. Reasonable values of the parameters were assigned and used to generate simulated data which is then processed by the models in order to determine limitations on their accuracy. These experiments exploit the existing software and program specimens which are in AIR-LAB to measure the performance of reliability models.

Wilson, Larry↗

MS25: Materials Science-Focused Benchmark Data Set for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Here, we present MS25, a benchmark data set for evaluating machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) across diverse materials-relevant systems including MgO surfaces, liquid water, zeolites, a catalytic Pt surface reaction, high-entropy alloys (HEAs), and disordered Zr-oxides. Five MLIP architectures (MACE, NequIP, Allegro, MTP, and Torch-ANI) are trained and tested, focusing not only on traditional metrics (energies, forces, and stresses) but also explicitly validating derived physical observables such as lattice constants, volumes, and reaction barriers. We find that most models reach comparable accuracy on standard error metrics across the simple systems, although equivariant MLIPs offer 1.5–2× improvements over nonequivariant MLIPs in energy and force error for structurally complex or compositionally disordered environments such as HEAs and Zr–O systems. Our analysis highlights that low errors in energy and force predictions do not guarantee reliable observables, emphasizing the necessity of explicit validation. We demonstrate limitations in cross-framework transferability, as models trained on one zeolite framework (CHA) fail to reliably generalize to predictions of structurally distinct frameworks (e.g., MFI). Size-extensive tests show some dependence on system size for MgO, resulting from forced periodicity. The HEA and Zr–O data sets are identified as challenging tests for future benchmarks and MLIP model architecture developments as they show significant differentiation in error between MLIP architectures and are still relatively difficult at 1000 training images. Moving forward, we recommend that benchmarking efforts shift their focus from marginal accuracy improvements in energy and force errors toward identifying and understanding model failure modes, rigorously assessing transferability, and evaluating how their errors affect observable predictions. For researchers looking to choose an MLIP architecture, we suggest selecting equivariant MLIP architectures if the complexity of the system is a challenge. For simple materials problems, auxiliary features such as integration with molecular dynamics engines, trade-offs between computational data set generation cost vs MLIP inference speed, and framework integration may play a more important decision factor than small differences in error metrics that are unlikely to matter for production-level research.

chemical structure↗

A First–Principles–Based Sub–Lattice Formalism for Predicting Off–Stoichiometry in Materials for Solar Thermochemical Applications: The Example of Ceria

Theoretical models that reliably can predict off-stoichiometry in materials via accurate descriptions of underlying thermodynamics are crucial for energy applications. For example, transition-metal and rare-earth oxides that can tolerate a large number of oxygen vacancies, such as CeO 2 and doped CeO 2 , can split water and carbon dioxide via a two-step, oxide-based solar thermochemical (STC) cycle. The search for new STC materials with a performance superior to that of state-of-the-art CeO 2 can benefit from predictions accurately describing the thermodynamics of oxygen vacancies. The sub-lattice formalism, a common tool used to fit experimental data and build temperature-composition phase diagrams, can be useful in this context. Here, sub-lattice models are derived solely from zero-temperature quantum mechanics calculations to estimate fairly accurate temperature- and oxygen-partial-pressure-dependent off-stoichiometries in CeO 2 and Zr-doped CeO 2 . Physical motivations for deriving some of the “excess” sub-lattice model parameters directly from quantum mechanical calculations, instead of fitting to minimize deviations from experimental and/or theoretical data, are identified. As a result, important limitations and approximations of the approach used are specified and extensions to multi-cation oxides are also suggested to help identify novel candidates for water and carbon dioxide splitting and related applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficient using Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network for Sparse Data

Wind tunnels use scale models to characterize aerodynamic coefficients, Wind tunnel testing can be slow and costly due to high personnel overhead and intensive power utilization. Although manual curve fitting can be done, it is highly efficient to use a neural network to define the complex relationship between variables. Numerical simulation of complex vehicles on the wide range of conditions required for flight simulation requires static and dynamic data. Static data at low Mach numbers and angles of attack may be obtained with simpler Euler codes. Static data of stalled vehicles where zones of flow separation are usually present at higher angles of attack require Navier-Stokes simulations which are costly due to the large processing time required to attain convergence. Preliminary dynamic data may be obtained with simpler methods based on correlations and vortex methods; however, accurate prediction of the dynamic coefficients requires complex and costly numerical simulations. A reliable and fast method of predicting complex aerodynamic coefficients for flight simulation I'S presented using a neural network. The training data for the neural network are derived from numerical simulations and wind-tunnel experiments. The aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of the flow characteristics and the control surfaces of the vehicle. The basic coefficients of lift, drag and pitching moment are expressed as functions of angles of attack and Mach number. The modeled and training aerodynamic coefficients show good agreement. This method shows excellent potential for rapid development of aerodynamic models for flight simulation. Genetic Algorithms (GA) are used to optimize a previously built Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that reliably predicts aerodynamic coefficients. Results indicate that the GA provided an efficient method of optimizing the ANN model to predict aerodynamic coefficients. The reliability of the ANN using the GA includes prediction of aerodynamic coefficients to an accuracy of 110% . In our problem, we would like to get an optimized neural network architecture and minimum data set. This has been accomplished within 500 training cycles of a neural network. After removing training pairs (outliers), the GA has produced much better results. The neural network constructed is a feed forward neural network with a back propagation learning mechanism. The main goal has been to free the network design process from constraints of human biases, and to discover better forms of neural network architectures. The automation of the network architecture search by genetic algorithms seems to have been the best way to achieve this goal.

Rajkumar, T.↗

Using Empirical Models for Communication Prediction of Spacecraft

A viable communication path to a spacecraft is vital for its successful operation. For human spaceflight, a reliable and predictable communication link between the spacecraft and the ground is essential not only for the safety of the vehicle and the success of the mission, but for the safety of the humans on board as well. However, analytical models of these communication links are challenged by unique characteristics of space and the vehicle itself. For example, effects of radio frequency during high energy solar events while traveling through a solar array of a spacecraft can be difficult to model, and thus to predict. This presentation covers the use of empirical methods of communication link predictions, using the International Space Station (ISS) and its associated historical data as the verification platform and test bed. These empirical methods can then be incorporated into communication prediction and automation tools for the ISS in order to better understand the quality of the communication path given a myriad of variables, including solar array positions, line of site to satellites, position of the sun, and other dynamic structures on the outside of the ISS. The image on the left below show the current analytical model of one of the communication systems on the ISS. The image on the right shows a rudimentary empirical model of the same system based on historical archived data from the ISS.

Quasny, Todd↗

Development and analysis of the Software Implemented Fault-Tolerance (SIFT) computer

SIFT (Software Implemented Fault Tolerance) is an experimental, fault-tolerant computer system designed to meet the extreme reliability requirements for safety-critical functions in advanced aircraft. Errors are masked by performing a majority voting operation over the results of identical computations, and faulty processors are removed from service by reassigning computations to the nonfaulty processors. This scheme has been implemented in a special architecture using a set of standard Bendix BDX930 processors, augmented by a special asynchronous-broadcast communication interface that provides direct, processor to processor communication among all processors. Fault isolation is accomplished in hardware; all other fault-tolerance functions, together with scheduling and synchronization are implemented exclusively by executive system software. The system reliability is predicted by a Markov model. Mathematical consistency of the system software with respect to the reliability model has been partially verified, using recently developed tools for machine-aided proof of program correctness.

Goldberg, J.↗

Building Blocks for Reliable Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

This chapter describes some of the building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations. Examples relevant to turbulent flow computations are included.

Yee, H. C.↗

Building Blocks for Reliable Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

This talk describes some of the building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations. Examples relevant to turbulent flow computations are included.

Yee, H. C.↗

Reliability of Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

This work describes some of the procedure to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations. Examples relevant to turbulent flow computations are included.

Yee, H. C.↗

Building Blocks for Reliable Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

This chapter describes some of the building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations.

Yee, H. C.↗