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Hanford Site-Wide Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

The site-wide probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Hanford Site (hereafter Hanford PSHA) in southeastern Washington State was undertaken by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and its contractors for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of River Protection (ORP), DOE Richland Operations Office (RL), and Energy Northwest to provide a detailed characterization of the vibratory ground motion hazard at the Hanford Site from potential future earthquakes. The study was conducted to fulfill the requirements for DOE facilities as well as those for commercial nuclear power plants, through a collaboration and joint sponsorship between DOE and Energy Northwest. The study fulfills the requirement to develop an update to the PSHA as required by DOE Order. In addition, the study fulfills the requirement from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) that Energy Northwest conduct a PSHA using Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 procedures for the Columbia Generating Station. Because the Hanford Site includes several facility sites, the PSHA has been conducted such that seismic hazard is calculated at five sites that are located across the Hanford Site.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Seismic Risk Assessment for Cascadia Subduction Zone Airport Facilities

Portland International Airport in Oregon is exploring operating a fleet of 28 fuel cell electric buses to support airport operations and possibly provide backup power during outages. In this report, we evaluate the risk of hydrogen deployment at an airport considering the potential for seismic activity. We present a seismic risk assessment for pressurized piping for a generic hydrogen refueling station at the airport. Only pressurized piping was considered in the risk analysis because of its vulnerability and availability of fragility information unlike the other components. Seismic capacity of other components should be included as more information becomes available.

08 HYDROGEN↗

An Application of the SSHAC Level 3 Process to the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Nuclear Facilities at the Hanford Site, Eastern Washington, USA

Under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the electric utility Energy Northwest, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is conducting a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) within the framework of a SSHAC Level 3 procedure (Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee; Budnitz et al., 1997). Specifically, the project is being conducted following the guidelines and requirements specified in NUREG-2117 (USNRC, 2012b) and consistent with approach given in the American Nuclear Standard ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. The collaboration between DOE and Energy Northwest is spawned by the needs of both organizations for an accepted PSHA with high levels of regulatory assurance that can be used for the design and safety evaluation of nuclear facilities. DOE committed to this study after performing a ten-year review of the existing PSHA, as required by DOE Order 420.1C. The study will also be used by Energy Northwest as a basis for fulfilling the NRC’s 10CFR50.54(f) requirement that the western US nuclear power plants conduct PSHAs in conformance with SSHAC Level 3 procedures. The study was planned and is being carried out in conjunction with a project Work Plan, which identifies the purpose of the study, the roles and responsibilities of all participants, tasks and their associated schedules, Quality Assurance (QA) requirements, and project deliverables. New data collection and analysis activities are being conducted as a means of reducing the uncertainties in key inputs to the PSHA. It is anticipated that the results of the study will provide inputs to the site response analyses at multiple nuclear facility sites within the Hanford Site and at the Columbia Generating Station.

Nuclear Facilities↗

Development of Advanced Numerical Tools for the Nonlinear Seismic Analysis of Nuclear Systems

In the framework of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of nuclear facilities, a rigorous dynamic characterization of all structural and non-structural components is of paramount concern. The common features of nuclear facilities lies in the combination of three characteristics: 1. low aspect ratio; 2. large mass; and 3. significant embedment in soil. These characteristics make the interaction between the structural system and the surrounding soil a key aspect to consider for seismic risk evaluations. The methodologies and numerical tools currently in use for simulating the seismic response of a nuclear facility with significant Soil Structure Interaction (SSI) date back to the 1970's and rely on a number of simplifying idealizations, mainly related to the characterization of the incident seismic waveforms, the assumption of linear-elastic behavior of the superstructures, and idealization of equivalent linear behavior of the supporting soils. Given this background and taking advantage of the substantial progress in computational mechanics in the last decades, the ongoing research aims at developing advanced numerical tools for the nonlinear, time history simulation of nuclear facilities. This translates into the availability of a robust nonlinear time-domain simulation tool that can accurately model the nonlinearities of coupled soil-structure systems, and whose development includes robust verification and validation. The work described herein is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and focuses on delivering the next-generation, high performance simulation tool in support of DOE needs and mission. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Utah FORGE 6-3712: Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks by GTC Analytics, presented by Jesse Williams. This video slide presentation discusses the development of machine learning-based predictive tools to estimate the magnitude-frequency response of stimulation-induced seismicity. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Induced seismicity red-light thresholds for enhanced geothermal prospects in the Netherlands

Prospects for geothermal energy in the Netherlands have renewed concerns around induced earthquakes. Risks from induced earthquakes are managed by traffic light protocols (TLPs), where the red-light is chosen as the stop-point before exceeding a tolerance to risk. Here, we simulate post-shut-in earthquake scenarios based on realistic information for the Netherlands. We focus on three risk metrics: aggregates like nuisance and damage impacts and also local personal risk (LPR) – a likelihood of building collapse fatality for an individual. Our results show that the severity of these risks varies spatially by orders of magnitude. Prior induced seismicity (e.g., the 2012 Huizinge event) provides a reference baseline to calibrate the Dutch earthquake risk tolerances. We find that these calibrated risk tolerances are similar to those observed in North America, suggesting an underlying sociological ‘license to operate.’ Furthermore, the use of calibrated risk tolerances results in nuisance concerns completely eclipsing the other two metrics. We compare our results to a hypothetical Groningen geothermal operation and find that our approach sets red-light thresholds approximately one magnitude unit below the ML 3.6 Huizinge event. Overall, our results provide a first-order recommendation for red-light thresholds and proactive management of Dutch enhanced geothermal induced seismicity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

West Flank Coso FORGE: Seismic Reflection

PDFs of seismic reflection profiles 101,110, 111 local to the West Flank FORGE site. 45 line kilometers of seismic reflection data are processed data collected in 2001 through the use of vibroseis trucks. The initial analysis and interpretation of these data was performed by Unruh et al. (2001). Optim processed these data by inverting the P-wave first arrivals to create a 2-D velocity structure. Kirchhoff images were then created for each line using velocity tomograms (Unruh et al., 2001).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Utah FORGE: Phase 2C Seismic Observation and Ground Water Well Data and Well Locations

This submission contains the following data associated with Utah FORGE Phase 2C within the Roosevelt Hot Springs geothermal area: - An ArcGIS shapefile with well locations for wells 58-32, 78-32, 68-32, OH-3, OH-4, WOW-2, and WOW-3. Well 58-32 is the deep test well, wells 68-32 and 78-32 are seismic test wells, and the OH and WOW wells were used for ground water monitoring and temperature gradient logging. - Drilling reports, lithologic logs, daily drilling reports, cuttings logs, and drilling photos for seismic monitoring wells 78-32 and 68-32. - Raw and post-processing temperature logs for wells OH-3, OH-4, WOW-2, and WOW-4. The archive also includes a README.txt file, which contains an explanation of the data and how it was acquired, and a text file with coordinates for the logged wells.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Utah FORGE 5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior project by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, presented by Dr. Kayla A. Kroll. The project's objective is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismicity and structure of Akutan and Makushin Volcanoes, Alaska, using joint body and surface wave tomography

Joint inversions of seismic data recover models that simultaneously fit multiple constraints while playing upon the strengths of each data type. Here, we jointly invert 14 years of local earthquake body wave arrival times from the Alaska Volcano Observatory catalog and Rayleigh wave dispersion curves based upon ambient noise measurements for local V p , V s , and hypocentral locations at Akutan and Makushin Volcanoes using a new joint inversion algorithm.The velocity structure and relocated seismicity of both volcanoes are significantly more complex than many other volcanoes studied using similar techniques. Seismicity is distributed among several areas beneath or beyond the flanks of both volcanoes, illuminating a variety of volcanic and tectonic features. The velocity structures of the two volcanoes are exemplified by the presence of narrow high-V p features in the near surface, indicating likely current or remnant pathways of magma to the surface. A single broad low-V p region beneath each volcano is slightly offset from each summit and centered at approximately 7 km depth, indicating a potential magma chamber, where magma is stored over longer time periods. Differing recovery capabilities of the Vp and Vs datasets indicate that the results of these types of joint inversions must be interpreted carefully.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Improved moving window cross-spectral analysis for resolving large temporal seismic velocity changes in permafrost

Cross correlations of seismic noise can potentially record large changes in subsurface velocity due to permafrost dynamics and be valuable for long-term Arctic monitoring. We applied seismic interferometry, using moving window cross-spectral analysis (MWCS), to 2 years of ambient noise data recorded in central Alaska to investigate whether seismic noise could be used to quantify relative velocity changes due to seasonal active-layer dynamics. The large velocity changes (>75%) between frozen and thawed soil caused prevalent cycle-skipping which made the method unusable in this setting. We developed an improved MWCS procedure which uses a moving reference to measure daily velocity variations that are then accumulated to recover the full seasonal change. This approach reduced cycle-skipping and recovered a seasonal trend that corresponded well with the timing of active-layer freeze and thaw. Lastly, this improvement opens the possibility of measuring large velocity changes by using MWCS and permafrost monitoring by using ambient noise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterizing the seismic response of a molten salt nuclear reactor

Abstract One Generation IV nuclear reactor, which uses a fluoride salt as a coolant, graphite reflector blocks as a moderator, and circulating buoyant TRISO pebbles as fuel is at an advanced stage of development. To characterize the seismic behavior of components of this reactor, validate numerical models for analysis, and develop recommendations for design, a set of earthquake‐simulator experiments on a scaled model of the reactor vessel and its internals was executed on a six‐degree‐of‐freedom earthquake simulator. The model was seismically isolated at its base using two types of spherical sliding bearings. The scaled model involved representations of the prototype reactor vessel, core barrel, reflector blocks, coolant, and spherical fuel pebbles. The material and geometric properties of different test components were selected based on a dynamic similitude scaling analysis and an approximate length scale of 0.4. Four sets of three‐component earthquake motions were used as inputs for testing. Instrumentation on the test specimen recorded the dynamic responses of the outer vessel, core barrel, and reflector‐block assembly, the hydrodynamic responses (sloshing and hydrodynamic pressure) of the liquid coolant, pebble consolidation under earthquake shaking, and the behavior of the isolation systems. This paper describes the design of the experiments and presents key results from the tests. The dynamic responses of the outer vessel, core barrel, and the reflector blocks revealed that the components responded as a unit for the intense shaking used in the experiments. The sloshing response of the fluid in a thin annulus near the perimeter of the vessel was heavily damped. The change in the packing fraction of the pebble bed under repeated, intense 3D earthquake shaking was less than 3%. Seismically isolating the vessel substantially reduced demands on its internal components.

Engineering↗

Large-scale seismic waveform quality metric calculation using Hadoop

Here in this work we investigated the suitability of Hadoop MapReduce and Apache Spark for large-scale computation of seismic waveform quality metrics by comparing their performance with that of a traditional distributed implementation. The Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) Data Management Center (DMC) provided 43 terabytes of broadband waveform data of which 5.1 TB of data were processed with the traditional architecture, and the full 43 TB were processed using MapReduce and Spark. Maximum performance of ~0.56 terabytes per hour was achieved using all 5 nodes of the traditional implementation. We noted that I/O dominated processing, and that I/O performance was deteriorating with the addition of the 5th node. Data collected from this experiment provided the baseline against which the Hadoop results were compared. Next, we processed the full 43 TB dataset using both MapReduce and Apache Spark on our 18-node Hadoop cluster. We conducted these experiments multiple times with various subsets of the data so that we could build models to predict performance as a function of dataset size. We found that both MapReduce and Spark significantly outperformed the traditional reference implementation. At a dataset size of 5.1 terabytes, both Spark and MapReduce were about 15 times faster than the reference implementation. Furthermore, our performance models predict that for a dataset of 350 terabytes, Spark running on a 100-node cluster would be about 265 times faster than the reference implementation. We do not expect that the reference implementation deployed on a 100-node cluster would perform significantly better than on the 5-node cluster because the I/O performance cannot be made to scale. Finally, we note that although Big Data technologies clearly provide a way to process seismic waveform datasets in a high-performance and scalable manner, the technology is still rapidly changing, requires a high degree of investment in personnel, and will likely require significant changes in other parts of our infrastructure. Nevertheless, we anticipate that as the technology matures and third-party tool vendors make it easier to manage and operate clusters, Hadoop (or a successor) will play a large role in our seismic data processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Faulting of natural serpentinite: Implications for intermediate-depth seismicity

The seismic potential of serpentinites at high pressure was investigated via deformation experiments on cored natural serpentinite samples, during which micro-seismicity was monitored by recording Acoustic Emissions (AEs). Deformation was performed at pressures of 3–5 GPa, using a Deformation-DIA device, and over a wide range of temperatures, both within and outside antigorite's stability field. Below 400 °C, serpentinite deformation involves “silent” semi-brittle mechanisms, even in cases where strain localization is observed. At high temperature (i.e., above 600 °C), despite conditions propitious to dehydration embrittlement (i.e., fast strain rates and reaction kinetics), joint deformation and dehydration lead to ductile shear, without generation of AEs. Brittle behavior was observed in a narrow temperature window ca. 500 °C. In this latter case, AEs are consistently observed upon faulting and extremely sharp strain localization is observed in recovered samples. The resulting microstructures are consistent with the inverse ductile-to-brittle transition proposed by Proctor and Hirth (2016) in antigorite. This may therefore be a source of seismicity in subducting slabs at mantle pressures and temperatures from 500 to 600 °C. However, the acoustic signal observed here is orders of magnitude weaker than what is obtained at low PT conditions with brittle failure, consistently with low radiation efficiency of serpentinite faulting (Prieto et al., 2013) and suggests that other mechanisms are responsible for large intermediate-depth earthquakes. In fact, the present results are in line with a recent study (Ferrand et al., 2017), that suggests that intermediate earthquakes are likely induced by mechanical instabilities due to dehydration in partly hydrated peridotites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interlocked optimization and fast gradient algorithm for a seismic inverse problem

Highlights: {yields} A 2D extension of the 1D nonlinear inversion of well-seismic data is given. {yields} Appropriate regularization yields a well-determined large scale inverse problem. {yields} An interlocked optimization loop acts as an efficient preconditioner. {yields} The adjoint state method is used to compute the misfit function gradient. {yields} Domain decomposition method yields an efficient parallel implementation. - Abstract: We give a nonlinear inverse method for seismic data recorded in a well from sources at several offsets from the borehole in a 2D acoustic framework. Given the velocity field, approximate values of the impedance are recovered. This is a 2D extension of the 1D inversion of vertical seismic profiles . The inverse problem generates a large scale undetermined ill-conditioned problem. Appropriate regularization terms render the problem well-determined. An interlocked optimization algorithm yields an efficient preconditioning. A gradient algorithm based on the adjoint state method and domain decomposition gives a fast parallel numerical method. For a realistic test case, convergence is attained in an acceptable time with 128 processors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian seismic inversion based on rock-physics prior modeling for the joint estimation of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies

We propose a Bayesian approach for seismic inversion to estimate acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies within the reservoir conditioned to post-stack seismic and well data. The link between elastic and petrophysical properties is given by a joint prior distribution for the logarithm of impedance and porosity, based on a rock-physics model. The well conditioning is performed through a background model obtained by well log interpolation. Two different approaches are presented: in the first approach, the prior is defined by a single Gaussian distribution, whereas in the second approach it is defined by a Gaussian mixture to represent the well data multimodal distribution and link the Gaussian components to different geological lithofacies. The forward model is based on a linearized convolutional model. For the single Gaussian case, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution, resulting in a fast algorithm to compute the solution of the inverse problem, i.e. the posterior distribution of acoustic impedance and porosity as well as the facies probability given the observed data. For the Gaussian mixture prior, it is not possible to obtain the distributions analytically, hence we propose a Gibbs algorithm to perform the posterior sampling and obtain several reservoir model realizations, allowing an uncertainty analysis of the estimated properties and lithofacies. Both methodologies are applied to a real seismic dataset with three wells to obtain 3D models of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies. The methodologies are validated through a blind well test and compared to a standard Bayesian inversion approach. Using the probability of the reservoir lithofacies, we also compute a 3D isosurface probability model of the main oil reservoir in the studied field.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Modeling and simulation of earthquake soil structure interaction excited by inclined seismic waves

Presented is an application of wave potential formulation (WPF) together with domain reduction method (DRM) to modeling earthquake soil structure interaction (ESSI) behavior in horizontally layered ground under inclined incident seismic waves. Wave potential formulation is used to develop a spatially varying, inclined seismic wave field from incident Primary (P) and Secondary (S) waves that propagate through layered ground. Developed seismic wave field is then used to develop effective forces for Domain Reduction Method that are then used for analyzing ESSI response of a soil structure system. Developed methodology, called WPF-DRM, is verified using analytic solution for a free field response of layered ground subjected to inclined incident waves. Developed WPF-DRM methodology is illustrated through analysis of an ESSI response of a deeply embedded structure, a small modular reactor (SMR) subjected to incident S wave polarized in vertical plane (SV) with variation in inclinations and frequencies. Presented example highlights the influences of incident wave inclination and frequency on ESSI response of analyzed SMR.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗