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At least 595 records · Page 33

Synergy of semiempirical models and machine learning in computational chemistry

Catalyzed by enormous success in the industrial sector, many research programs have been exploring data-driven, machine learning approaches. Performance can be poor when the model is extrapolated to new regions of chemical space, e.g., new bonding types, new many-body interactions. Another important limitation is the spatial locality assumption in model architecture, and this limitation cannot be overcome with larger or more diverse datasets. The outlined challenges are primarily associated with the lack of electronic structure information in surrogate models such as interatomic potentials. Given the fast development of machine learning and computational chemistry methods, we expect some limitations of surrogate models to be addressed in the near future; nevertheless spatial locality assumption will likely remain a limiting factor for their transferability. Here, we suggest focusing on an equally important effort—design of physics-informed models that leverage the domain knowledge and employ machine learning only as a corrective tool. In the context of material science, we will focus on semi-empirical quantum mechanics, using machine learning to predict corrections to the reduced-order Hamiltonian model parameters. The resulting models are broadly applicable, retain the speed of semiempirical chemistry, and frequently achieve accuracy on par with much more expensive ab initio calculations. These early results indicate that future work, in which machine learning and quantum chemistry methods are developed jointly, may provide the best of all worlds for chemistry applications that demand both high accuracy and high numerical efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

TU-FG-201-07: Development of SRS Conical Collimator Collision Prediction Software for Radiation Treatment Safety

Purpose: Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) treatments using conical collimators can potentially result in gantry collision with treatment table due to limited collision-clear spaces. An in-house software was developed to help the SRS treatment planner mitigate potential SRS conical collimator (Varian Medical System, Palo Alto, CA) collisions with the treatment table. This software was designed to remove treatment re-planning secondary to unexpected collisions. Methods: A BrainLAB SRS ICT Frameless Extension used for SRS treatments in our clinic was mathematically modelled using surface points registered to the 3D co-ordinate space of the couch extension. The surface points are transformed based on the treatment isocenter point and potential collisions are determined in 3D space for couch and gantry angle combinations. The distance between the SRS conical collimators and LINAC isocenter is known. The collision detection model was programmed in MATLAB (Mathwork, Natick, MA) to display graphical plots of the calculations, and the plotted data is used to avoid the gantry and couch angle combinations that would likely result in a collision. We have utilized the cone collision tool for 23 SRS cone treatment plans (8 retrospective and 15 prospective for 10 patients). Results: Twenty one plans strongly agreed with the software tool prediction for collision. However, in two plans, a collision was observed with a 0.5 cm margin when the software predicted no collision. Therefore, additional margins were added to the clearance criteria in the program to achieve a lower risk of actual collisions. Conclusion: Our in-house developed collision check software successfully avoided SRS cone re-planning by 91.3% due to a reduction in cone collisions with the treatment table. Future developments to our software will include a CT image data set based collision prediction model as well as a beam angle optimization tool to avoid normal critical tissues as well as previously treated lesions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Data Release Report Source Physics Experiments 5 and 6 (SPE-5 and SPE-6), Nevada National Security Site

The fifth Source Physics Experiment test (SPE-5) was conducted in Nevada on April 26, 2016, at 20:49:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The explosive source was 4,288.7 kilograms (kg) of polymer-bonded explosive (PBXN) –110, equivalent to 5,035 kg of trinitrotoluene (TNT) detonated at a depth of 76.5 meters (m). The sixth Source Physics Experiment test (SPE-6) was conducted in Nevada on October 12, 2016 at 18:36:00 UTC. The explosive source was 1,982.2 kg of PBXC-141, equivalent to 2,240.2 kg of TNT detonated at the depth of 31.4 m. Both tests were recorded by an extensive set of instrumentation that includes sensors both at near-field (less than 100 m) and far-field (100 m or greater) distances. The near-field instruments consisted of three-component accelerometers installed at various depths ranging from 4 to 99 m below ground surface in boreholes positioned around the shot, and a set of single-component vertical accelerometers on the surface. The far-field network was composed of a variety of seismic and acoustic sensors, including short-period geophones, broadband seismometers, and three-component accelerometers at distances of 100 m to 400 kilometers. In addition, both explosions were recorded in a temporary array of 996 geophones arranged in a densely spaced grid pattern (“large N”). This report coincides with the release of these data for analysts and organizations that are not participants in this program. This report describes the fifth and sixth Source Physics Experiment tests and the various types of near-field and far-field data that are available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Full-Stack Exploration of Language-Based Parallelism in Fortran 2023

This poster explores native parallel features in Fortran 2023 through the lens of supporting applications with libraries, compilers, and parallel runtimes. The language revision informally named Fortran 2008 introduced parallelism in the form of Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) execution with two broad feature sets: (1) loop-level parallelism via do concurrent and (2) a Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) comprised of distributed “coarray” data structures. Fortran’s native parallelism has demonstrated high performance [1] and reduced the burden of inserting what sometimes amounts to more directives than code. Several compilers support both feature sets, typically by translating do concurrent into serial do loops annotated by parallel directives and by translating SPMD/PGAS features into direct calls to a communication library. Our research focuses primarily on two questions: (1) can the compiler’s parallel runtime library be developed in the language being compiled (Fortran) and (2) can we define an interface to the runtime that liberates compilers from being hardwired to one runtime and vice versa. We are answering these questions by developing the Parallel Runtime Interface for Fortran (PRIF) [2] and the Co-Array Fortran Framework of Efficient Interfaces to Network Environments (Caffeine) [3]. Caffeine is initially targeting adoption by LLVM Flang, a new open-source Fortran compiler developed by a broad community in industry, academia, and government labs. We are also exploring the use of these features in Inference-Engine, a deep learning library designed to facilitate neural network training and inference for high-performance computing applications written in modern Fortran.

Rasmussen, Katherine↗

SMART Scale An Innovative Program Accelerating the Energy Efficiency Market

Small business is a major component of the American economy. More than half of all private sector workers in this country are employed by small businesses and nearly two-thirds of the new jobs generated in the last ten years were created in this sector. Studies have shown that buildings of less than 50,000 square feet represent 94% of the commercial sector and half of all non-residential floor space in the United States. The future of the American economy relies on a vibrant, robust, and profitable small business community. Small and mid-sized businesses (SMB) can increase their profitability by reducing their operating costs through energy efficiency. The SMART Scale program delivers deep retrofits that maximize energy and cost savings for the SMB market and can be adapted throughout the country in markets of all sizes. For the past 14 years, Ecology Action has been perfecting a Direct Install (DI) program for the SMB market that offers this sector the type of sophisticated, comprehensive energy saving opportunities that were previously available only to large commercial and industrial customers. The DI 2.0 model that Ecology Action has administered for several public and investor-owned California utilities, and most recently for the Sacramento Municipal Utilities District (SMUD), provides the template for a successful retrofit program that can address the unique barriers faced by the SMB sector and achieve a greater impact than traditional DI programs. The impressive results produced by the DI 2.0 program prompted the US Department of Energy to award Ecology Action a $2 million grant in 2013 to create, demonstrate and roll out a replicable model for delivering deep retrofits to small commercial buildings. The grant enabled Ecology Action to build on the success of DI 2.0 by incorporating improvements into the model, market-testing it and designing a costeffective method of achieving significant energy savings for small businesses across the country.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

THE FLARE-ONA OF EK DRACONIS

EK Draconis (HD 129333: G1.5 V) is a well-known young (50 Myr) solar analog. In 2012, Hubble Space Telescope returned to EK Dra to follow up a far-ultraviolet (FUV) SNAPshot visit by Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) two years earlier. The brief SNAP pointing had found surprisingly redshifted, impulsively variable subcoronal “hot-line” emission of Si iv 1400 Å (T ∼ 8 × 10{sup 4} K). Serendipitously, the 2012 follow-on program witnessed one of the largest FUV flares ever recorded on a sunlike star, which again displayed strong redshifts (downflows) of 30–40 km s{sup −1}, even after compensating for small systematics in the COS velocity scales, uncovered through a cross-calibration by Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). The (now reduced, but still substantial) ∼10 km s{sup −1} hot-line redshifts outside the flaring interval did not vary with rotational phase, so cannot be caused by “Doppler imaging” (bright surface patches near a receding limb). Density diagnostic O iv] 1400 Å multiplet line ratios of EK Dra suggest n{sub e} ∼ 10{sup 11} cm{sup −3}, an order of magnitude larger than in low-activity solar twin α Centauri A, but typical of densities inferred in large stellar soft X-ray events. The self-similar FUV hot-line profiles between the flare decay and the subsequent more quiet periods, and the unchanging but high densities, reinforce a long-standing idea that the coronae of hyperactive dwarfs are flaring all the time, in a scale-free way; a flare-ona if you will. In this picture, the subsonic hot-line downflows probably are a byproduct of the post-flare cooling process, something like “coronal rain” on the Sun. All in all, the new STIS/COS program documents a complex, energetic, dynamic outer atmosphere of the young sunlike star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Regulated Forms of Cell Death in Fungi

Cell death occurs in all domains of life. While some cells die in an uncontrolled way due to exposure to external cues, other cells die in a regulated manner as part of a genetically encoded developmental program. Like other eukaryotic species, fungi undergo programmed cell death (PCD) in response to various triggers. For example, exposure to external stress conditions can activate PCD pathways in fungi. Calcium redistribution between the extracellular space, the cytoplasm and intracellular storage organelles appears to be pivotal for this kind of cell death. PCD is also part of the fungal life cycle, in which it occurs during sexual and asexual reproduction, aging, and as part of development associated with infection in phytopathogenic fungi. Additionally, a fungal non-self-recognition mechanism termed heterokaryon incompatibility (HI) also involves PCD. Some of the molecular players mediating PCD during HI show remarkable similarities to major constituents involved in innate immunity in metazoans and plants. In this review we discuss recent research on fungal PCD mechanisms in comparison to more characterized mechanisms in metazoans. We highlight the role of PCD in fungi in response to exogenic compounds, fungal development and non-self-recognition processes and discuss identified intracellular signaling pathways and molecules that regulate fungal PCD.

BCL-2 family↗

TOWARD A NETWORK OF FAINT DA WHITE DWARFS AS HIGH-PRECISION SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC STANDARDS

We present the initial results from a program aimed at establishing a network of hot DA white dwarfs to serve as spectrophotometric standards for present and future wide-field surveys. These stars span the equatorial zone and are faint enough to be conveniently observed throughout the year with large-aperture telescopes. The spectra of these white dwarfs are analyzed in order to generate a non-local-thermodynamic-equilibrium model atmosphere normalized to Hubble Space Telescope colors, including adjustments for wavelength-dependent interstellar extinction. Once established, this standard star network will serve ground-based observatories in both hemispheres as well as space-based instrumentation from the UV to the near IR. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this concept and show how two different approaches to the problem using somewhat different assumptions produce equivalent results. We discuss the lessons learned and the resulting corrective actions applied to our program.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Atmospheric System Research Treatment of Convection in Next-Generation Climate Models: Challenges and Opportunities Workshop Report

A workshop sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program was held at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) on 3-5 February 2016. This workshop was a response to the rapid approach of climate models with cloud-permitting (1- to 10-km grid spacing) resolutions. The expansion of computational resources and advances in numerical methods are making such models a reality. The workshop participants considered specifically the new set of challenges for representing convective cloud processes in this generation of models. The challenges arise from the fact that some aspects of convection are partly resolved. Short- and long-term strategies that would lead to accurately representing convection in these models were discussed, and opportunities for the ASR program to effectively leverage DOE’s unique capabilities, high-performance computing resources, and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility observational facilities to this end were identified. The workshop was organized around the premise that a strategy to accurately treat convection in the next generation of climate models comprises addressing challenges on three core themes and their integration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genarris 2.0: A Random Structure Generator for Molecular Crystals

Genarris is an open source Python package for generating random molecular crystal structures with physical constraints for seeding crystal structure prediction algorithms and training machine learning models. Here we present a new version of the code, containing several major improvements. A MPI-based parallelization scheme has been implemented, which facilitates the seamless sequential execution of user-defined workflows. A new method for estimating the unit cell volume based on the single molecule structure has been developed using a machine-learned model trained on experimental structures. A new algorithm has been implemented for generating crystal structures with molecules occupying special Wyckoff positions. A new hierarchical structure check procedure has been developed to detect unphysical close contacts efficiently and accurately. New intermolecular distance settings have been implemented for strong hydrogen bonds. To demonstrate these new features, we study two specific cases: benzene and glycine. Genarris finds the experimental structures of the two polymorphs of benzene and the three polymorphs of glycine. Program summary Program Title: Genarris 2.0 Program Files doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/grx6mz4pjn.1 Licensing provisions: BSD-3 Clause Programming language: Python, C External routines/libraries: Spglib, ASE, pymatgen, SciPy, mpi4py, scikit-learn, PyTorch, FHI-aims. Nature of problem: Molecular crystal structure prediction. Solution method: Genarris 2.0 generates molecular crystal structures over the 230 space groups, on general and special Wyckoff positions, using physical constraints. Down-sampling of the generated structures may be performed subsequently, based on molecular crystal packing descriptors and an unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Lastly, ab initio structure relaxation may be performed for the final pool. Depending on the user-defined workflow implemented, Genarris may be used to generate diverse molecular crystal datasets to seed evolutionary algorithms or to train machine learning algorithms or as a standalone crystal structure prediction method. Restrictions: For crystal structure generation, the molecule of interest must be semi-rigid with no bond rotational degrees of freedom. Unusual features: Genarris 2.0 is a highly distributed program, making use of MPI for Python parallelization. The user has the ability to design and implement workflows by executing a user-defined list of procedures. Genarris 2.0 offers new features including a machine learning model for estimating the molecular volume in the solid state from the single molecule structure, structure generation in special Wyckoff positions of space groups, hierarchical structure checks including rigorous treatment of non-orthogonal structures, and clustering and down-selection workflows combining first principles simulations with machine learning. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crystal structure prediction↗

First Report of the Nuclear Data Subcommittee of the Nuclear Science Advisory Committee

Accurate, reliable nuclear data is essential for the success of Federal missions such as nonproliferation, nuclear forensics, homeland security, national defense, space exploration, clean energy generation, and scientific research. Data access is also key to innovative commercial developments such as new medicines, automated industrial controls, energy exploration, energy security, nuclear reactor design, and isotope production. The United States Nuclear Data Program (USNDP) is the domestic custodian of nuclear data. In its April 2022 meeting, the DOE/NSF Nuclear Science Advisory Committee was charged with preparing two reports on nuclear data. In this first report, we review recent accomplishments of the USNDP and discuss complementary and collaborative international efforts. Detailed descriptions of nuclear data needs for basic science, nonproliferation, national security, nuclear energy together with medical and space applications are also presented. Lastly, a set of specific cross-cutting nuclear data needs with relevance for multiple applications areas are also identified for further discussion in a follow-on report planned for release at the end of January 2023.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Benchmarking and Evaluating Unified Memory for OpenMP GPU Offloading

Here, the latest OpenMP standard offers automatic device offloading capabilities which facilitate GPU programming. Despite this, there remain many challenges. One of these is the unified memory feature introduced in recent GPUs. GPUs in current and future HPC systems have enhanced support for unified memory space. In such systems, CPU and GPU can access each other's memory transparently, that is, the data movement is managed automatically by the underlying system software and hardware. Memory over subscription is also possible in these systems. However, there is a significant lack of knowledge about how this mechanism will perform, and how programmers should use it. We have modified several benchmarks codes, in the Rodinia benchmark suite, to study the behavior of OpenMP accelerator extensions and have used them to explore the impact of unified memory in an OpenMP context. We moreover modified the open source LLVM compiler to allow OpenMP programs to exploit unified memory. The results of our evaluation reveal that, while the performance of unified memory is comparable with that of normal GPU offloading for benchmarks with little data reuse, it suffers from significant overhead when GPU memory is over subcribed for benchmarks with large amount of data reuse. Based on these results, we provide several guidelines for programmers to achieve better performance with unified memory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Hartree-Fock Application Using UPC++ and the New DArray Library

The Hartree-Fock (HF) method is the fundamental first step for incorporating quantum mechanics into many-electron simulations of atoms and molecules, and it is an important component of computational chemistry toolkits like NWChem. The GTFock code is an HF implementation that, while it does not have all the features in NWChem, represents crucial algorithmic advances that reduce communication and improve load balance by doing an up-front static partitioning of tasks, followed by work stealing whenever necessary. To enable innovations in algorithms and exploit next generation exascale systems, it is crucial to support quantum chemistry codes using expressive and convenient programming models and runtime systems that are also efficient and scalable. Here, this paper presents an HF implementation similar to GTFock using UPC++, a partitioned global address space model that includes flexible communication, asynchronous remote computation, and a powerful multidimensional array library. UPC++ offers runtime features that are useful for HF such as active messages, a rich calculus for array operations, hardware-supported fetch-and-add, and functions for ensuring asynchronous runtime progress. We present a new distributed array abstraction, DArray, that is convenient for the kinds of random-access array updates and linear algebra operations on block-distributed arrays with irregular data ownership. Finally, we analyze the performance of atomic fetch-and-add operations (relevant for load balancing) and runtime attentiveness, then compare various techniques and optimizations for each. Our optimized implementation of HF using UPC++ and the DArrays library shows up to 20% improvement over GTFock with Global Arrays at scales up to 24,000 cores.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Manage OpenMP GPU Data Environment Under Unified Address Space

OpenMP has supported the offload of computations to accelerators such as GPUs since version 4.0. A crucial aspect in OpenMP offloading is to manage the accelerator data environment. Currently, this has to be explicitly programmed by users, which is non-trival and often results in suboptimal performance. The unified memory feature available in recent GPU architectures introduces another option, implicit management. However, our experiments show that it incurs several performance issues, especially under GPU memory oversubscription. In this paper, we propose a compiler and runtime collaborative approach to manage OpenMP GPU data under unified memory. In our framework, the compiler performs data reuse analysis to assist runtime data management. The runtime combines static and dynamic information to make optimized data management decisions.We have implement the proposed technology in the LLVM framework. The evaluation shows our method can achieve significant performance improvement for OpenMP GPU offloading.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Refining perovskite structures to pair distribution function data using collective Glazer modes as a basis

Structural modelling of octahedral tilts in perovskites is typically carried out using the symmetry constraints of the resulting space group. In most cases, this introduces more degrees of freedom than those strictly necessary to describe only the octahedral tilts. It can therefore be a challenge to disentangle the octahedral tilts from other structural distortions such as cation displacements and octahedral distortions. This paper reports the development of constraints for modelling pure octahedral tilts and implementation of the constraints in diffpy-CMI, a powerful package to analyse pair distribution function (PDF) data. The model in the program allows features in the PDF that come from rigid tilts to be separated from non-rigid relaxations, providing an intuitive picture of the tilting. The model has many fewer refinable variables than the unconstrained space group fits and provides robust and stable refinements of the tilt components. It further demonstrates the use of the model on the canonical tilted perovskite CaTiO 3 which has the known Glazer tilt system α + β – β – . The Glazer model fits comparably to the corresponding space-group model Pnma below r = 14 Å and becomes progressively worse than the space-group model at higher r due to non-rigid distortions in the real material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 32, No. 4, October-December 1991]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 477 Report on the International Symposium on the Use of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Operational Safety—PSA '91, S. Chakraborty and M. Khatib-Rahbar; 488 Good Relationships Are Pivotal in Nuclear Data Bases, A. S. Heger and B. V. Koen; 494 Technical Note: The Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel's Evaluation of the Ulysses Space Mission, J. A. Sholtis, Jr., D. A. Huff, L. B. Gray, N. P. Klug, and R. O. Winchester; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 502 The Severe Accident Analysis Program for the Savannah River Nuclear Production Reactors, M. L. Hyder; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 511 A Framework for Selecting Suitable Control Technologies for Nuclear Power Plant Systems, R. A. Kisner; DESIGN FEATURES: 521 Containments for Gas-Cooled Power Reactors History and Status, P.W. Williams; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 537 Indoor Radon: A Natural Risk, N. H. Harley and J.H. Harley; On the Importance of the Atmospheric Parameters in the Fission Products Distribution of a Severe Reactor Accident, M. C. Barla and A. R. Bayulken; Book Review: Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR V, C. R. Richmond; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 555 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 567 Effects of Component Aging on the Westhinghouse Control Rod Drive System, K. Sullivan and W. Gunther; 577 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 580 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 582 Operating U 8 Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 596 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 610 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 614 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 520 Workshop on PC PRAISE: A Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Personal Computer Code for Nuclear Power Plant Piping Reliability Assessment; 536 Fifth Workshop on Nuclear Power Plant Containment Integrity; 624 New OECD "International Information System on Occupational Exposure (ISOE)"; 625 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 625 Eighth Power Plant Dynamics, Control and Testing Symposium; 626 Second Training Course on Off-Site Emergency Planning and Response for Nuclear Accidents; 618 The Authors; 622 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol 32.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DarkNESS: A skipper-CCD nanosatellite for dark matter searches

The Dark matter Nanosatellite Equipped with Skipper Sensors (DarkNESS) deploys a recently developed skipper-CCD architecture with sub-electron readout noise in low Earth orbit (LEO) to investigate potential signatures of dark matter (DM). The mission addresses two interaction channels: electron recoils from strongly interacting sub-GeV DM and X-rays produced through decaying DM. Orbital observations avoid attenuation that limits ground-based measurements, extending sensitivity reach for both channels. The mission proceeds toward launch following laboratory validation of the instrument. A launch opportunity has been secured through Firefly Aerospace’s DREAM 2.0 program, awarded to the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). As a result, this will constitute the first use of skipper-CCDs in space and evaluate their suitability for low-noise X-ray and single-photon detection in future space observatories.

Alpine, Phoenix [University of Illinois, Urbana-Ch↗

Carbon and energy cost impacts of electrification of space heating with heat pumps in the US

In order to meet climate goals, it will be necessary to significantly reduce the greenhouse gases emitted by homes. A key factor in the US is to reduce the on-site combustion of fossil fuels for heating end-uses and to replace this with use of electric heat pump technologies connected to a low-carbon grid. The replacement of natural gas furnaces with electric heat pumps is a key home decarbonization strategy. However, the potential for space heating electrification to reduce greenhouse gas emissions depends on the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) content of the electricity used by the heat pump. This varies considerably depending on the source of electricity, with large state to state variability. Furthermore, household energy costs are likely to be impacted by the electrification of space heating, because retail energy prices for both natural gas and electricity in each state vary by factors of seven and four, respectively. Contractors, energy programs, government and building code officials, as well as consumers need clear indications of the likely CO 2 e and energy cost impacts of proposed electrification projects, because these will affect decarbonization choices and rationales around scaled heating electrification. Government and utility programs also need to be aware of the likely outcomes of any supported/incentivized measures. Here, in this paper, we investigate these effects by looking at new metrics to analyze the change in CO 2 e emitted and the cost to meet home heating loads when switching from a natural gas furnace to a heat pump for the contiguous 48 states of the mainland US.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗