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NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS1984

The magnetic activity of sunlike stars

The solar magnetic field, when carried into interplanetary space by the solar wind, creates changes in the earth's magnetosphere and variations in the galactic cosmic ray particle flux incident on the earth's upper atmosphere. Observational data accumulated over several centuries have indicated that the solar magnetism exists and varies in a globally organized pattern that is coupled to the sun's rotation. Wilson (1966, 1981) has demonstrated that analogs of solar activity exist and can be studied in many other dwarf stars, so that knowledge of the precise rates of rotation of stars under investigation can increase understanding of the origins of solar activity in particular and stellar activity in general.

Vaughan, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Energy deposition in the earth's atmosphere due to impact of solar activity-generated disturbances

Energy deposition in and dynamic responses of the terrestrial atmosphere to solar flare-generated shocks and other physical processes - such as particle precipitation and local heating - are investigated self-consistently in the context of hydrodynamics, the problem being treated as an initial boundary-value problem. It is extremely difficult to construct a general model for the line solar activity-magnetosphere-atmosphere; however, a limited model for this link is possible. The paper describes such a model, and presents some results on energy deposition into the earth's atmosphere due to solar activity-generated disturbances. Results from the present calculations are presented and discussed.

Wu, S. T.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Climatology of nitric oxide in the upper stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere - 1979 through 1986

The contents of NO in the upper stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere were determined as a function of time and latitude, using spectral scan data for 1979 through 1986 from the solar backscattered UV instrument on Nimbus 7. In that period, the integrated column amount of NO near the equator decreased from 6.4 x 10 to the 14th molecules/sq cm to 3.3 x 10 to the 14th molecules/sq cm. The time dependence of the decrease in NO correlated with solar activity, following the decline in solar activity from a solar maximum in 1979 to solar minimum in 1985-86. At middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, the NO concentration was found to be maximal in 1982-1983, a few years after the solar cycle maximum, and declined thereafter.

Mcpeters, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Ionospheric Scintillation on Spaceborne SAR Observations Studied Using GNSS

A survey of artifacts seen in JAXA's Phase Array type L-band synthetic aperture radar (PALSAR) data over South America during a low solar activity year is reported in this paper. A significant impact on the radar data is revealed: about 14% of the surveyed PALSAR images (totally 2779) are affected by the artifacts during a month and the artifacts occur on 74.2% of the surveyed days. The characteristics of the artifacts have led to a consideration that the artifacts are the effects of ionospheric scintillation. This raises not only a concern about scintillation effects on radar but also a question about active scintillation conditions during a low solar activity year. To assess and verify the scintillation conditions, GPS data collected from the constellation of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites and three ground-based GPS networks are processed and analyzed. The GPS data provides a global context and regional dense converge, respectively, of ionospheric irregularity and scintillation measurements. It is concluded tat even during a low solar activity year, L-band scintillation at low latitudes can occur frequently and affect L-band SAR significantly.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS1983

Periodicities in the occurrence of aurora as indicators of solar variability

A compilation of records of the aurora observed in China from the Time of the Legends (2000 - 3000 B.C.) to the mid-18th century has been used to infer the frequencies and strengths of solar activity prior to modern times. A merging of this analysis with auroral and solar activity patterns during the last 200 years provides basically continuous information about solar activity during the last 2000 years. The results show periodicities in solar activity that contain average components with a long period (approx. 412 years), three middle periods (approx. 38 years, approx. 77 years, and approx. 130 years), and the well known short period (approx. 11 years).

Nian-Zu, D.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Manned Mars mission solar physics: Solar energetic particle prediction and warning

There are specific risks to the crew of the manned Mars mission from energetic particles generated by solar activity. Therefore, mission planning must provide for solar monitoring and solar activity forecasts. The main need is to be able to anticipate the energetic particle events associated with some solar flares and, occasionally, with erupting filaments. A second need may be for forecasts of solar interference with radio communication between the manned Mars mission (during any of its three phases) and Earth. These two tasks are compatible with a small solar observatory that would be used during the transit and orbital phases of the mission. Images of the Sun would be made several times per hour and, together with a solar X-ray detector, used to monitor for the occurrence of solar activity. The data would also provide a basis for research studies of the interplanetary medium utilizing observations covering more of the surface of the Sun than just the portion facing Earth.

Suess, S. T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Neutral composition measurements by the Pioneer Venus Neutral Mass Spectrometer during orbiter re-entry

Measurements by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter Neutral Mass Spectrometer (ONMS) instrument during Orbiter re-entry have been made from 18-24 hours local solar time, above 170 km, of He, and from midnight to 4.5 hours below 200 km of He, N, O, CO, N2, and CO2. Preliminary results indicate that in the post-midnight sector He is the dominant species above 170 km, O the dominant species from 140-170 km and CO2 the dominant species below 140 km. Estimated scale height temperatures for He, O, and CO2 of about 105-120 K are similar to those observed in 1978-1980 at higher solar activity. The densities at 1 am local solar time and at 150 km are within 35% of those measured earlier. The He bulge is also similar to that observed in 1978-1980 confirming that thermosphere superrotation is still present. Comparison with the results of a Venus Thermosphere General Circulation Model suggests the nightside is not sensitive to changes in solar activity due to the isolation of the day and night thermospheres. apparently, the relatively small changes in the dayside thermosphere with solar activity have little impact on the nightside thermosphere.

Kasprzak, W. T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Neutral Composition Measurements by the Pioneer Venus Neutral Mass Spectrometer During Orbiter Re-Entry

Measurements by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter Neutral Mass Spectrometer (ONMS) instrument during Orbiter re-entry have been made from 18-24 hours local solar time, above 170 km, of He, and from midnight to 4.5 hours below 200 km of He, N, O, CO, N2, and CO2. Preliminary results indicate that in the post-midnight sector He is the dominant species above 170 km, O the dominant species from 140-170 km and CO2 the dominant species below 140 km. Estimated scale height temperatures for He, O and CO2 of about 105-120 K are similar to those observed in 1978-80 at higher solar activity. The densities at 1 am local solar time and at 150 km are within 35% of those measured earlier. The He bulge is also similar to that observed in 1978-80 confirming that thermosphere superrotation is still present. Comparison with the results of a Venus Thermosphere General Circulation Model suggests the nightside is not sensitive to changes in solar activity due to the isolation of the day and night thermospheres. Apparently, the relatively small changes in the dayside thermosphere with solar activity have little impact on the nightside thermosphere.

Kasprzak, W. T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗

NASA NTRS1987

Solar EUV induced variations in the thermosphere

The effects of solar activity on the thermosphere are reviewed. The neutral total density, temperature, and electron density increase with solar activity, and their variations are fairly well correlated with variations in solar 10.7-cm flux. The electron temperature, by contrast, has a complex behavior with solar activity, depending on altitude and season, as increased heat input is balanced by increased cooling provided by the enhanced electron density. Also, individual neutral species do not all increase in step but are influenced by dissociation and dynamical processes. The increased ion drag at higher solar activities inhibits the neutral wind from increasing in the same proportion as the neutral temperatures and densities.

Hedin, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A Probable Approx. 2400 Year Solar Quasi-cycle in Atmospheric Delta C-14

A 2200 to 2600 year quasi-periodicity is present in atmospheric delta C-14 records after removal of long-term trends due to the geomagnetic dipole amplitude variation. This periodicity consists of both a long-term variation of the mean and a superposed, approximately recurring pattern of century-scale variations. The strongest of these latter variations occur near maxima of the approx. 2400 year delta C-14 cycles. The residual record can be modeled to first order as an amplitude modulation of a century-scale periodic forcing function by a approx. 2400 year periodic forcing function. During the last millennium, the largest century-scale variations (occurring near the most recent 2400 year delta C-14 maximum) are known to be mainly a consequence of the pronounced Maunder, Sporer, and Wolf solar activity minima, as verified by independent proxy solar activity records. Therefore, during this period, amplitude modulation has been occurring primarily in the sun and not in the terrestrial radiocarbon system. It is therefore inferred that the approx. 2400 year forcing function is mainly solar although some secondary terrestrial feedback into the delta C-14 record is likely. This conclusion has implications for the predictability of future pronounced solar activity minima and for the interpretation of certain minor Holocene climatic variations.

Hood, L. L.↗

NASA NTRS1980

On lunar evidence for a possible large increase in solar flare activity approximately 2 x 10 to the 4th years ago

Data from lunar materials which may be interpreted as suggesting an increase in solar cosmic ray activity approximately 20,000 years ago is examined. The evidence includes the iron track within pit data of Hartung and Storzer (1974), the lunar whole rock pit and track data, lunar C-14 radioactivity data, lunar Ni-59 radioactivity data, the impact pit and iron track data of Morrison and Zinner (1975, 1977) and the lunar thermoluminescence data. While numerous explanations are possible for each set of data, it is shown that the first four data sets may be explained by a past increase in solar cosmic ray activity, and the remaining data sets are not necessarily incompatible with solar activity a factor of 20 to 40 times higher than at present for several thousand years prior to about 20,000 years ago.

Zook, H. A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Orbiting solar observatory 8 high resolution ultraviolet spectrometer experiment

Oscillations, physical properties of the solar atmosphere, motions in the quiet solar atmosphere, coronal holes, motions in solar active regions, solar flares, the structure of plage regions, an atlas, and aeronomy are summarized. Photometric sensitivity, scattered light, ghosts, focus and spectral resolution, wavelength drive, photometric sensitivity, and scattered light, are also summarized. Experiments are described according to spacecraft made and experiment type. Some of the most useful data reduction programs are described.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of the Earth's variable rotation

The objective was to analyze the Earth's rotation, and to compare the observations with the atmospheric and seismic excitation functions. The variation in the Earth's rotation can be separated into the length-of-day (LOD) variation and the polar motion. Possible driving mechanisms include: atmospheric/oceanic circulations, seismic activities, solar-lunar tides, mantle convection, core-mantle coupling, and solar activities. The major problem of concern was the identification of these dynamical processes as primary driving mechanisms for the various features in the variation of the Earth's rotation.

Chao, B. F.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The Solar Wind at 20-30 AU

Pioneer 10 sampled the interplanetary plasma over the range 20 to 30 astronomical units, during the period 1979-1983. The median flow speed is about 400 km/s, and at 20 AU the median density, proton temperature and dynamic pressure are, respectively, 0.025 cm-3, 10(4) K, and 6x10-11 dyne cm-2. It is shown that the average solar wind flow speed does not vary significantly with increasing heliocentric distance, and the density falls off as R-2, as predicted by simple solar wind models. The day-to-day variations in solar wind parameters are smaller at larger distance. Very large shocks however, were detected beyond 25 AU. Comparison of Pioneer 10 and 11 observations at similar distances but different phases of the solar activity cycle shows that solar wind dynamic pressure varies over a wider range during epochs of high solar activity. The variation near 20 AU is likely to be smaller at Voyager 2 Uranus encounter than observed by Pioneer 10 in the 1979-80 period.

Barnes, A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The study of the physics of cometary nuclei

The development and utilization of an optimized computer program to analyze orbital stabilization by repeated calculations is presented. The stability of comets in the Opik-Oort Cloud about the Sun against perturbations by the Galactic center involve the same basic type of calculation. The supposed persistence of these bodies in orbits over the life of the solar system, depends upon the stability of bodies of negligible mass in orbits around a body whose mass is small compared to the central mass about which they revolve. The question remains of preferential orientation of extremely eccentric comet orbits, possibly to explain the asymmetry observed among new comet motions. A third application of the computing programs is suited to meteoroids that may exist in orbits about asteroids and that may endanger science spacecraft making flybys too near to asteroids. As in the double-comet case, solar activity and solar gravitational perturbations limit the attendance to an asteroid by small meteroids in their orbits. It is found that the mass distances planned for asteroid fly-bys are adequate.

Whipple, F. L.↗