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DOE OSTI2021

Zonal‐Scale of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Propagation Speed on the Interannual Time‐Scale

Abstract While no significant long‐term trend in the propagation speed of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter is found during the past decades, pronounced year‐to‐year variability of the MJO phase speed is illustrated by analyzing a century‐long record data set. During the winters when fast MJO propagation is observed, the MJO exhibits a much larger zonal‐scale than that during the winters with slow propagation. A broader extension in MJO circulation effectively induces stronger and broader lower‐tropospheric moistening (drying) to the east (west) of MJO through horizontal moisture advection, prompting a faster MJO phase speed. The larger MJO zonal‐scale during the fast MJO propagation winters is coincident with anomalously increased background sea surface temperatures and precipitable water over both the western Indian Ocean and central/eastern Pacific, reminiscent of an expansion of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. A fundamental question remains open regarding the key processes that determine the zonal‐scale of MJO organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

How accurate is a machine learning-based wind speed extrapolation under a round-robin approach?

As the size of commercial wind turbines keeps increasing, having accurate ways to vertically extrapolate wind speed is essential to obtain a precise characterization of the wind resource for wind energy production. Recently, machine learning has been proposed and applied to extrapolate wind speed to hub heights. However, previous studies trained and tested the machine learning methods at the same site, giving them an unfair advantage over the conventional extrapolation techniques, which are instead more universal. Here, we use data from four sites in Oklahoma to test a round-robin validation approach for machine learning, under which we train a random forest at a site, and test it at a different site, where the model has no prior knowledge of the wind resource. We quantify how the accuracy of this technique varies with distance from the training site, and we find that it outperforms conventional techniques for wind extrapolation at all the considered spatial separations. We then assess how the accuracy of the machine-learning based approach varies when it is used to predict wind speed in a wind farm far wake. Finally, we explore as case study the performance of the random forest in extrapolating winds during a low-level jet event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of horizontal wind speed and direction measurements from dual-Doppler radar and profiling lidars

Dual-Doppler radar is a relatively new technology in the wind energy community and thus not yet studied vastly. This paper aims to compare horizontal wind speed and direction data retrieved from dual-Doppler radar and profiling lidars within the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) to investigate the influence of measurement height, wind direction and speed on the comparison. The 10-min averaged data show a better agreement of the measurements for higher altitudes, especially at faster wind speeds. For the wind direction, two sectors of larger differences in the measurements were detected: around 270° transient winds occur with a higher frequency than in other sectors. To explain the different measurement values in the wind direction sector around 90°, further studies, e.g. on the influence of atmospheric stability, are necessary.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

An open-source framework for balancing computational speed and fidelity in production cost models

Studies of bulk power system operations need to incorporate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, especially around exposure to weather and climate variability and extremes, but this remains a computational modeling challenge. Commercial production cost models (PCMs) have shorter runtimes, but also important limitations (opacity, license restrictions) that do not fully support stochastic simulation. Open-source PCMs represent a potential solution. They allow for multiple, simultaneous runs in high-performance computing environments and offer flexibility in model parameterization. Yet, developers must balance computational speed (i.e. runtime) with model fidelity (i.e. accuracy). In this paper, we present Grid Operations (GO), a framework for instantiating open-source, scale-adaptive PCMs. GO allows users to search across parameter spaces to identify model versions that appropriately balance computational speed and fidelity based on experimental needs and resource limits. Results provide generalizable insights on how to navigate the fidelity and computational speed tradeoff through parameter selection. We show that models with coarser network topologies can accurately mimic market operations, sometimes better than higher-resolution models. It is thus possible to conduct large simulation experiments that characterize operational risks related to climate and weather extremes while maintaining sufficient model accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Designing an Intrusion Detection for an Adjustable Speed Drive System Controlling a Critical Process

In this article, we address the cyber-security problem of industrial control systems (ICSs) when their sensor measurements may be compromised due to an attacker who has intercepted those measurements via a network. We introduce a general-purpose method “Dynamic Watermarking (DW)” to detect potential cyber-intrusions on speed sensor measurements within industrial control systems, which deploy an adjustable speed drive (ASD) to control a critical process. The DW method is injecting a random private low-amplitude signal with a zero mean Gaussian distribution, “watermark”, into one of the input phase voltages powering the ASD system. The watermark signal propagates through the system including pulse width modulation (PWM) power conversion stage and motor, then ultimately appears in the speed sensor measurements. By deploying two statistical DW tests with two proper thresholds, the system can detect potential cyber-intrusions or unobservable cyber-attacks such as replay attacks and false data injection attacks (FDIA). The DW method tested on a laboratory-scale ASD system experimentally to protect the system against cyber-intrusions. This system, powered by a commercial PWM drive operating at 208 V, 3-phase, and 3.7 kW, served as our experimental platform.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

The importance of round-robin validation when assessing machine-learning-based vertical extrapolation of wind speeds

The extrapolation of wind speeds measured at a meteorological mast to wind turbine rotor heights is a key component in a bankable wind farm energy assessment and a significant source of uncertainty. Industry-standard methods for extrapolation include the power-law and logarithmic profiles. The emergence of machine-learning applications in wind energy has led to several studies demonstrating substantial improvements in vertical extrapolation accuracy in machine-learning methods over these conventional power-law and logarithmic profile methods. In all cases, these studies assess relative model performance at a measurement site where, critically, the machine-learning algorithm requires knowledge of the rotor-height wind speeds in order to train the model. This prior knowledge provides fundamental advantages to the site-specific machine-learning model over the power-law and log profiles, which, by contrast, are not highly tuned to rotor-height measurements but rather can generalize to any site. Furthermore, there is no practical benefit in applying a machine-learning model at a site where winds at the heights relevant for wind energy production are known; rather, its performance at nearby locations (i.e., across a wind farm site) without rotor-height measurements is of most practical interest. To more fairly and practically compare machine-learning-based extrapolation to standard approaches, we implemented a round-robin extrapolation model comparison, in which a random-forest machine-learning model is trained and evaluated at different sites and then compared against the power-law and logarithmic profiles. We consider 20 months of lidar and sonic anemometer data collected at four sites between 50 and 100 km apart in the central United States. We find that the random forest outperforms the standard extrapolation approaches, especially when incorporating surface measurements as inputs to include the influence of atmospheric stability. When compared at a single site (the traditional comparison approach), the machine-learning improvement in mean absolute error was 28 % and 23 % over the power-law and logarithmic profiles, respectively. Using the round-robin approach proposed here, this improvement drops to 20 % and 14 %, respectively. These latter values better represent practical model performance, and we conclude that round-robin validation should be the standard for machine-learning-based wind speed extrapolation methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1951

Tests of Two-Blade Propellers in the Langley 8-Foot High-Speed Tunnel to Determine the Effect on Propeller Performance of a Modification of Inboard Pitch Distribution

Tests of two propellers having two blades and differing only in the inboard pitch distribution were made in the Langley 8-foot highspeed tunnel to determine the effect of inboard pitch distribution on propeller performance. propeller was designed for operation in the reduced velocity region ahead of an NACA cowling; the inboard pitch distribution of the modified propeller was increased for operation at or near free-stream velocities, such as would be obtained in a pusher installation. conditions covering climb, cruise, and high-speed operation. Wake surveys were taken behind the propellers in order to determine the distribution of thrust along the blades and to aid in the analysis of the results. Test results showed that the modified propeller was about 2.5 percent less efficient for a typical climb condition at all altitudes, 2 percent more efficient for one cruise condition, and 5 percent more efficient for high-speed operation. speed condition, the modified propeller showed a 6-percent loss in efficiency due to compressibility; whereas the original propeller showed an 11-percent efficiency loss due to compressiblity. The lower compressibility loss for the modified propeller resulted from the fact that the inboard sections of this propeller could operate at increased thrust loading after compressibility losses had occurred at the outboard sections.

PROPELLERS - PERFORMANCE↗

NASA NTRS2015

Complementary Aerodynamic Performance Datasets for Variable Speed Power Turbine Blade Section from Two Independent Transonic Turbine Cascades

Two independent experimental studies were conducted in linear cascades on a scaled, two-dimensional mid-span section of a representative Variable Speed Power Turbine (VSPT) blade. The purpose of these studies was to assess the aerodynamic performance of the VSPT blade over large Reynolds number and incidence angle ranges. The influence of inlet turbulence intensity was also investigated. The tests were carried out in the NASA Glenn Research Center Transonic Turbine Blade Cascade Facility and at the University of North Dakota (UND) High Speed Compressible Flow Wind Tunnel Facility. A large database was developed by acquiring total pressure and exit angle surveys and blade loading data for ten incidence angles ranging from +15.8deg to −51.0deg. Data were acquired over six flow conditions with exit isentropic Reynolds number ranging from 0.05×106 to 2.12×106 and at exit Mach numbers of 0.72 (design) and 0.35. Flow conditions were examined within the respective facility constraints. The survey data were integrated to determine average exit total-pressure and flow angle. UND also acquired blade surface heat transfer data at two flow conditions across the entire incidence angle range aimed at quantifying transitional flow behavior on the blade. Comparisons of the aerodynamic datasets were made for three "match point" conditions. The blade loading data at the match point conditions show good agreement between the facilities. This report shows comparisons of other data and highlights the unique contributions of the two facilities. The datasets are being used to advance understanding of the aerodynamic challenges associated with maintaining efficient power turbine operation over a wide shaft-speed range.

Cascade↗

NASA NTRS2015

Complementary Aerodynamic Performance Datasets for Variable Speed Power Turbine Blade Section from Two Independent Transonic Turbine Cascades

Turbine↗

NASA NTRS2017

Measurements of Turbulent Convection Speeds in Multistream Jets Using Time-Resolved PIV

Convection speeds of turbulent velocities in jets, including multi-stream jets with and without flight stream, were measured using an innovative application of time-resolved particle image velocimetry. The paper describes the unique instrumentation and data analysis that allows the measurement to be made. Extensive data is shown that relates convection speed, mean velocity, and turbulent velocities for multiple jet cases. These data support the overall observation that the local turbulent convection speed is roughly that of the local mean velocity, biased by the relative intensity of turbulence.

Jet↗

NASA NTRS2017

Measurements of Turbulence Convection Speeds in Multistream Jets Using Time-Resolved PIV

Convection Speed↗

NASA NTRS2016

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

simulations↗

NASA NTRS2018

High Speed Bearing Wear Rate Measurements for Spacecraft Active Thermal Control Fluid Pumps with a Novel Pin on Disk Apparatus

A novel pin on disc tribometer was designed and constructed to generate a high-speed, wear coefficient database for hydrodynamic bearings that are typically used in canned motors found in the active thermal control circuits of robotic and inhabited spacecraft. The primary motivation for this work was the premature failure of the active external thermal control pump on the International Space Station in 2010. During the failure investigation of this incident, the root cause was postulated to be high speed wear of the bearings. Although a detailed forensic analysis gave credibility to this theory, the lack of wear coefficient data at relevant conditions prevented validation of this finding. The database generated from the new Extreme Environment Tribometer (EET) enabled a closure calculation within 5% of the observed wear from inspections of the failed hardware. Testing in anhydrous ammonia and surrogate fluid was performed to provide a means for simplified testing in the future and to populate a preliminary database for the design of future active thermal control systems on spacecraft. The EET and test techniques developed for the measurement of high-speed wear coefficients are available to future system designers.

thermal control↗

NASA NTRS2023

Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-speed Commercial Aircraft - Final Report

SpaceWorks has concluded a 9-month research and development project aimed at addressing key questions in NASA’s effort to anticipate, understand, and ultimately support the emerging high-speed commercial flight market. The current project is a continuation of the Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-Speed Commercial Aircraft1 , which is a follow-on to a 2021 study led by Deloitte and SpaceWorks entitled Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study2 . Based in part on the recommendations of these prior studies, the objectives of this current effort were to expand the trade space to include Mach 1.5 aircraft and conduct additional trade studies. These included utilizing tech stops to extend serviceable range between city pairs, mixed aircraft fleets based on market size, flight scheduling to maximize value of the travel opportunity, and scenarios with multiple service operators. Additionally, SpaceWorks conducted new market surveys and research to update air passengers’ willingness-to-pay for highspeed flights given the changes in macroeconomic conditions since the start of the Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study with Deloitte. Ultimately, the new data and capability to evaluate all the trade studies were implemented in a new simulation environment called MIDAS (Multi-market Integrated Dynamic Aerospace Simulation). This sophisticated tool, implemented using AnyLogic software, utilizes agent-based and discrete event simulation (DES) techniques to provide highly detailed analysis and assessment of the high-speed aircraft market problem.

high-speed↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Cell Temperature Models and the Effect of Wind Speed in PV System Capacity Testing: Preprint

Capacity testing is a routine procedure for assessing a photovoltaic system's performance relative to expectations. The most common test method involves fitting a regression model that predicts system output power using operating weather conditions including wind speed. Structural modifications to the regression model to incorporate wind in different ways improved the model's ability to fit measured system performance, but the observed improvements were small and unlikely to change the result of a capacity test. However, the results showed that the choice of reporting wind speed and inclusion or exclusion of wind speed in the performance model used as the test benchmark can significantly change the test result.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

High speed butt joining of 1” thick 2139-T8

Thick plate (=1”) butt joining of Al alloys is challenging due to high tool forces, uneven material flow, and heat distribution in the through-thickness direction. Tool design and welding parameters used for executing thick plate butt joining have remained mostly static over the past decade. Reported welding speeds that produce viable joint strength (mostly on 6xxx alloys) typically range below 100 mm/min (4inches /min). Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in association with Ground Vehicle Systems Center (US Army GVSC) have been working to demonstrate greater joining efficiency at higher welding speeds in a 1” thick AA2139-T8 plate. Using innovative tool features and effective force and temperature control a joint efficiency of 80% was demonstrated at a welding speed of 7 inches /min (178mm/min).

Das, Hrishikesh↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mobility of twinning dislocations in copper up to supersonic speeds

Understanding the mobility of twinning dislocations is important for multiscale modeling of crystal plasticity, especially at high strain rates, where such dislocations may reach transonic or supersonic speeds. Here, we used molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the relationship between dislocation velocity and the applied resolved shear stress of an edge twinning dislocation in copper up to supersonic speeds. The twinning dislocation mobility relation is composed of two branches separated by a band of forbidden velocities. The lower velocity branch is limited by the first transverse sound speed ~2000 m/s while the upper branch stretches from ~3500 m/s in the transonic regime to supersonic velocities. Twinning dislocations cannot undergo uniform steady-state motion at velocities within the forbidden band. Our simulation results also reveal that edge twinning dislocation motion in copper is kink-mediated. We discuss the implications of our findings for the motion of twins, twinning dislocations, and twinning dislocation kinks in copper.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗