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NASA NTRS2004

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗

NASA NTRS1961

Application of Monte Carlo Technique for Determining Maneuvering Loads from Statistical Information on Airplane Motions

Results of a statistical analysis of horizontal-tail loads on a fighter airplane are presented. The data were obtained from a number of operational training missions with flight at altitudes up to about 50,000 feet and at Mach numbers up to 1.22. The analysis was performed to determine the feasibility of calculating horizontal-tail load from data on the flight conditions and airplane motions. In the analysis the calculated loads are compared with the measured loads for the different types of missions performed. The loads were calculated by two methods: a direct approach and a Monte Carlo technique. The procedures used and some of the problems associated with the data analysis are discussed. frequencies of occurrence of tail loads of given magnitudes are derived from statistical information on the flight quantities. In the direct method, a time history of tail load is calculated from time-history measurements of the flight quantities. The Monte Carlo method could be useful for extending loads information for design of prospective airplanes . For the Monte Carlo method, the The results indicate that the accuracy of loads, regardless of the method used for calculation, is largely dependent on the knowledge of the pertinent airplane aerodynamic characteristics and center-of-gravity location. In addition, reliable Monte Carlo results require an adequate sample of statistical data and a knowledge of the more important statistical dependencies between the various flight conditions and airplane motions.

Hamer, Harold A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

Knocke, Philip C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Alternative Flight Software Trigger Paradigm: Applying Multivariate Logistic Regression to Sense Trigger Conditions Using Inaccurate or Scarce Information

In late 2014, NASA will fly the Orion capsule on a Delta IV-Heavy rocket for the Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) mission. For EFT-1, the Orion capsule will be flying with a new GPS receiver and new navigation software. Given the experimental nature of the flight, the flight software must be robust to the loss of GPS measurements. Once the high-speed entry is complete, the drogue parachutes must be deployed within the proper conditions to stabilize the vehicle prior to deploying the main parachutes. When GPS is available in nominal operations, the vehicle will deploy the drogue parachutes based on an altitude trigger. However, when GPS is unavailable, the navigated altitude errors become excessively large, driving the need for a backup barometric altimeter to improve altitude knowledge. In order to increase overall robustness, the vehicle also has an alternate method of triggering the parachute deployment sequence based on planet-relative velocity if both the GPS and the barometric altimeter fail. However, this backup trigger results in large altitude errors relative to the targeted altitude. Motivated by this challenge, this paper demonstrates how logistic regression may be employed to semi-automatically generate robust triggers based on statistical analysis. Logistic regression is used as a ground processor pre-flight to develop a statistical classifier. The classifier would then be implemented in flight software and executed in real-time. This technique offers improved performance even in the face of highly inaccurate measurements. Although the logistic regression-based trigger approach will not be implemented within EFT-1 flight software, the methodology can be carried forward for future missions and vehicles.

Smith, Kelly M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Alternative Flight Software Paradigm: Applying Multivariate Logistic Regression to Sense Trigger Conditions using Inaccurate or Scarce Information

Smith, Kelly↗

NASA NTRS2004

Mars Exploration Rovers landing dispersion analysis

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. The JPL MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and the JPL AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Statistical optical link budget analysis

In this paper, we describe work on extending statistical analysis methods to optical communications links, with a primary focus on intensity modulated, direct detected photon-counting channel utilizing pulse-position-modulation (PPM). We performed analysis on the relationship between bit error rate (BER) requirement, statistical characteristics of the received signal power and noise power, and the coded performance curves. We presented link analysis results with preliminary uncertainty quantifications of signal power and noise power. We used the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Serially Concatenated convolutionally coded Pulse Position Modulation (SCPPM) prototype software [1] to obtain coded performance curves under different operating conditions with varying signal power, background noise power, code rates,and PPM modulation orders. Comparison with traditional, deterministic analysis shows that extra margin needs to be reserved to compensate for the performance losses caused by uncertainties of the link parameters.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗

NASA NTRS1985

A new statistic for the analysis of circular data in gamma-ray astronomy

A new statistic is proposed for the analysis of circular data. The statistic is designed specifically for situations where a test of uniformity is required which is powerful against alternatives in which a small fraction of the observations is grouped in a small range of directions, or phases.

Protheroe, R. J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Guiding the choice of informatics software and tools for lipidomics research applications

Progress in mass spectrometry lipidomics has led to a rapid proliferation of studies across biology and biomedicine. These generate extremely large raw datasets requiring sophisticated solutions to support automated data processing. To address this, numerous software tools have been developed and tailored for specific tasks. However, for researchers, deciding which approach best suits their application relies on ad hoc testing, which is inefficient and time consuming. Here we first review the data processing pipeline, summarizing the scope of available tools. Next, to support researchers, LIPID MAPS provides an interactive online portal listing open-access tools with a graphical user interface. This guides users towards appropriate solutions within major areas in data processing, including (1) lipid-oriented databases, (2) mass spectrometry data repositories, (3) analysis of targeted lipidomics datasets, (4) lipid identification and (5) quantification from untargeted lipidomics datasets, (6) statistical analysis and visualization, and (7) data integration solutions. Detailed descriptions of functions and requirements are provided to guide customized data analysis workflows.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nutritional markers and proteome in patients undergoing treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis differ by geographic region

Contemporary phase 2 TB disease treatment clinical trials have found that microbiologic treatment responses differ between African versus non-African regions, the reasons for which remain unclear. Understanding host and disease phenotypes that may vary by region is important for optimizing curative treatments. We characterized clinical features and the serum proteome of phase 2 TB clinical trial participants undergoing treatment for smear positive, culture-confirmed TB, comparing host serum protein expression in clinical trial participants enrolled in African and Non-African regions. Serum samples were collected from 289 participants enrolled in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention TBTC Study 29 (NCT00694629) at time of enrollment and at the end of the intensive phase (after 40 doses of TB treatment). After a peptide level proteome analysis utilizing a unique liquid chromatography IM-MS platform (LC-IM-MS) and subsequent statistical analysis, a total of 183 core proteins demonstrated significant differences at both baseline and at week 8 timepoints between participants enrolled from African and non-African regions. The majority of the differentially expressed proteins were upregulated in participants from the African region, and included acute phase proteins, mediators of inflammation, as well as coagulation and complement pathways. Downregulated proteins in the African population were primarily linked to nutritional status and lipid metabolism pathways. We have identified differentially expressed nutrition and lipid pathway proteins by geographic region in TB patients undergoing treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis, which appear to be associated with differential treatment responses. Future TB clinical trials should collect expanded measures of nutritional status and further evaluate the relationship between nutrition and microbiologic treatment response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Parameter-masked Mock Data Challenge for Beyond-two-point Galaxy Clustering Statistics

The past few years have seen the emergence of a wide array of novel techniques for analyzing high-precision data from upcoming galaxy surveys, which aim to extend the statistical analysis of galaxy clustering data beyond the linear regime and the canonical two-point (2pt) statistics. We test and benchmark some of these new techniques in a community data challenge named “Beyond-2pt,” initiated during the Aspen 2022 Summer Program “Large-Scale Structure Cosmology beyond 2-Point Statistics,” whose first round of results we present here. The challenge data set consists of high-precision mock galaxy catalogs for clustering in real space, in redshift space, and on a light cone. Participants in the challenge have developed end-to-end pipelines to analyze mock catalogs and extract unknown (“masked”) cosmological parameters of the underlying ΛCDM models with their methods. The methods represented are density-split clustering, nearest neighbor statistics, BACCO power spectrum emulator, void statistics, LEFTfield field-level inference using effective field theory (EFT), and joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using both EFT and simulation-based inference. In this work, we review the results of the challenge, focusing on problems solved, lessons learned, and future research needed to perfect the emerging beyond-2pt approaches. The unbiased parameter recovery demonstrated in this challenge by multiple statistics and the associated modeling and inference frameworks supports the credibility of cosmology constraints from these methods. The challenge data set is publicly available, and we welcome future submissions from methods that are not yet represented.

Krause, Elisabeth [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (U↗

NASA NTRS1983

Survey of chondrule average properties in H-, L-, and LL-group chondrites - Are chondrules the same in all unequilibrated ordinary chondrites?

The petrogenetic properties of chondrules in different unequilibrated ordinary chondrites (UOCs) are compared to averaged chondrule-suite values obtained from recent analyses of several H-group, L-group, and LL-group chondrites. The purpose of the study was to develop a data base for future statistical analyses of chondrite characteristics. Mean end-member compositions of olivine (mol percent Fa) and pyroxene (mol percent Fs) were used as indices of the relative degree of 'equilibration' of each chondrule suite. It is found that the bulk chondrule geometric-mean abundances of Na, Mg, and Ni are the same from one UOC to another, and show no major systematic trends related to the H-group, L-group, of LL-group parentage of the host chondrites. The patterns of rare-earth element abundances in the chondrules are also examined, and the results are compared with statistical analyses. It is concluded that multivariate statistical analysis of pooled UOC chondrule data is justified for chondrule bulk compositions, as long as the statistical results are not misinterpreted as the primary petrogenetic features of chondrules.

Gooding, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

High dimensional reflectance analysis of soil organic matter

Recent breakthroughs in remote-sensing technology have led to the development of high spectral resolution imaging sensors for observation of earth surface features. This research was conducted to evaluate the effects of organic matter content and composition on narrowband soil reflectance across the visible and reflective infrared spectral ranges. Organic matter from four Indiana agricultural soils, ranging in organic C content from 0.99 to 1.72 percent, was extracted, fractionated, and purified. Six components of each soil were isolated and prepared for spectral analysis. Reflectance was measured in 210 narrow bands in the 400- to 2500-nm wavelength range. Statistical analysis of reflectance values indicated the potential of high dimensional reflectance data in specific visible, near-infrared, and middle-infrared bands to provide information about soil organic C content, but not organic matter composition. These bands also responded significantly to Fe- and Mn-oxide content.

Henderson, T. L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding and Modeling Pooled Rideshare Acceptance: Influential Factors, Preferred User Experiences, and Implications

This dissertation explores factors influencing pooled rideshare (PR) adoption to provide actionable insights for transportation network companies (TNCs) and policymakers. PR allows travelers to share rides with unknown passengers, offering benefits such as cost reduction and congestion relief. However, adoption remains limited due to safety concerns, privacy issues, and trust in rideshare platforms. A national U.S. survey with 5,385 respondents examined transportation preferences and barriers to PR adoption. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses identified five key factors influencing PR consideration—safety, service experience, privacy, traffic/environment, and time/cost. Second factor analyses examined ways to optimize PR experiences, revealing four factors—comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety. Privacy concerns, for instance, using regression analysis, were found to reduce the likelihood of PR adoption by 77%, and convenience had the potential to increase it by 156%. The Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model (PRAM), based on the Technology Acceptance Model, assessed the impact of these factors using the Structural Equation Model (SEM). Privacy, safety, trust, and convenience had a large effect (Cohen's f2 > 0.35) on PR acceptance, while multigroup analyses (PRAMMA) explored 16 demographic variables such as gender, generation, and income, emphasizing the need for tailored strategies. Based on all the statistical analysis and workshops using descriptive statistics, 95 actionable recommendations were made from the riders' perspective. Findings highlight the importance of customized services, user experience improvements, and policy interventions to enhance PR adoption. This dissertation provides a roadmap for future research and policy development, ensuring evidence-based, practical strategies to improve PR services in the U.S. and beyond.

Gangadharaiah, Rakesh↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Satellite Needs Working Group (SNWG) Biennial Survey: Analyzing Satellite Earth Observation Needs Across U.S. Federal Civilian Agencies

The Satellite Needs Working Group (SNWG) is part of the U.S. Group on Earth Observations (USGEO) and was established to identify high-priority Earth observation satellite needs across U.S. federal civilian agencies. Federal agencies often rely on Earth observation data to fulfill multidisciplinary agency responsibilities such as assessing agricultural crop conditions, detecting wildfires, and monitoring water quality; however, the data sets and tools required to meet these needs are not always readily available or accessible to agency personnel. SNWG conducts a biennial survey of federal satellite needs in order to bridge the gap between Earth observation data providers and their government stakeholders and users. The SNWG Management Office completes an analysis of these survey submissions to gain insight into the types of satellite needs that exist across the government. Within the survey, agencies provide details on how satellite data are used to meet their objectives, measurement requirements needed for their use cases, and gaps that exist in currently available satellite data products and services. For the SNWG 2024 cycle, there were 125 surveys submitted from 25 different agencies. This presentation will discuss findings from the statistical analysis of the SNWG 2024 survey responses and highlight the diverse nature of the needs, common themes in agency requests, and differences in the responses compared to previous cycles. The presentation will also discuss the newly approved SNWG Aggregate Statistics Report that will make these analysis results available to the public and help inform what’s next for science.

Essence Raphael↗

NASA NTRS1979

Monte Carlo analysis of satellite debris footprint dispersion

A comprehensive study is performed to investigate satellite debris impact point dispersion using a combination of Monte Carlo statistical analysis and parametric methods. The Monte Carlo technique accounts for nonlinearities in the entry point dispersion, which is represented by a covariance matrix of position and velocity errors. Because downrange distance of impact is a monotonic function of debris ballistic coefficient, a parametric method is useful for determining dispersion boundaries. The scheme is applied in the present analysis to estimate the Skylab footprint dispersions for a controlled reentry. A significant increase in the footprint dispersion is noticed for satellite breakup above a 200,000-ft altitude. A general discussion of the method used for analysis is presented together with some typical results obtained for the Skylab deboost mission, which was designed before NASA abandoned plans for a Skylab controlled reentry.

Rao, P. P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Use of Minute-by-Minute Cardiovascular Measurements During Tilt Tests to Strengthen Inference on the Effect of Long-Duration Space Flight on Orthostatic Hypotension

Typical methodology for evaluating the effects of spaceflight on orthostatic hypotension (OH) has been survival analysis of tolerance times from 80 head-up tilt tests. However when scheduled test durations are short, there may not be enough failures to allow survival analysis to adequately estimate and compare the effects of flight phase (e.g. pre-flight, number of days post-flight), flight duration, and their interaction, as well as interactions with effects of interventions or countermeasures. The problem is exacerbated in the presence of a repeated measures design, in which subjects participate in tilt tests during various flight phases. Here we show how it is possible to dramatically improve the efficiency of statistical inference in this setting by making use of the additional information contained in minute-by-minute observations of cardiovascular parameters thought to be reflective of progression towards presyncope during tilt testing. Methods: We retrospectively examined operational tilt test (OTT; 10 -min 80 head-up tilt) data from 20 International Space Station (ISS) and 66 Shuttle astronauts 10 d before launch (L-10), on landing day (R+0) and during recovery (R+1, R+3, R+6-10) depending on the level of participation. Data from 5 ISS astronauts tested on R+0 or R+1 who used non-standard countermeasures were excluded. In addition to OTT survival time, 8 cardiovascular parameters (CP: heart rate, systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial blood pressure, pulse pressure, stroke volume, cardiac output, and total peripheral resistance) that might be predictive of progression towards presyncope were measured every minute of each OTT. Statistical analysis was predicated on a two ]stage model of causation. In the first stage, flight duration and time from landing affect the astronauts' degree of OH, which is manifested in the time trends and variation of the above CPs during OTTs. In the second stage, the behavior of these parameters directly affects OTT survival time. Actual analysis proceeded in the opposite direction. First we identified those CPs or linear combinations that best predicted OTT survival regardless of what spaceflight conditions led to OTT completion or presyncope. From these, we calculated a summary statistic (one per OTT) that best predicted survival. We then used mixed ]model regression analysis to relate changes in the summary statistic to flight phase and duration. Inference on the effects of phase, duration, and their interaction on OH follows directly from this second analysis. Results: A linear combination (W) of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and stroke volume (SV) was found to be the best predictor of OTT survival using the complete data set of minute-by-minute observations of CPs for each OTT. Furthermore, the log-transformed standard deviation of W (Z = log SW) was found to be a strong predictor of survival in the reduced data set consisting of one observation per OTT. In other words, this measure of variability of W during an OTT was the best indicator of whether or not the subject could complete the 10-min test, with higher variability (i.e. higher values of Z) being associated with greater probability of failure. In the mixed-model regression analysis where Z was now treated as a outcome with flight phase and duration groups (ISS and STS) as predictors, we found that there was a significantly more variability in W (higher values of Z) for both groups at R+0, but with no evidence of an interaction until R+3, when the ISS group still had inflated variability, but not the STS group. Conclusions: Variability of the cardiovascular index W recovers more slowly after long-compared to short-duration spaceflight. Since high variability of W has also been shown to be predictive of OTT failure, a primary manifestation of OH, a logical conclusion is that recovery from OH also is slower after long-duration compared to short-duration spaceflights.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The relation between lignin sequence and its 3D structure

Background: Lignin, the second most abundant biopolymer on earth, plays a major structural role in plants, conferring mechanical strength and regulating water conduction. Understanding the three-dimensional structure of lignin is important for fundamental reasons as well as engineering plants towards lignin valorization. Lignin lacks a specific primary sequence, making its average chemical composition the focus of most recent studies. However, it remains unclear whether the 3D structure of lignin molecules depends on their sequence. Methods: In this work, we performed all-atom molecular dynamics simulation of three S/G-lignin molecules with the same average composition but different sequence. Results: A detailed statistical analysis of the radius of gyration and relative shape anisotropy reveals that the lignin sequence has no statistically significant effect on the global three-dimensional structure. We found however, that homopolymers of C-lignin with the same molecular weight have smaller radii of gyration than S/G-lignin. We attribute this to lower hydroxyl content of C-lignin, which makes it more compact and rigid. Conclusions: The 3D structure of lignin is influenced by the overall content of monomeric units and interunit linkages and not by its precise primary sequence. General Significance: Lignin is assumed to not have a well-defined primary structure. The results presented here demonstrate there are no significant differences in the global 3D structure of lignin molecules with the same average composition but different primary sequence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗