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At least 595 records · Page 33

Modeling and Control Using Stochastic Distribution Control Theory for Intersection Traffic Flow

In this work, we investigated stochastic distribution control theory-based traffic signal optimization to achieve a smooth and uniform flow of vehicles through signalized intersections. In this context, the static and linear dynamic stochastic distribution models were developed to express the relationship between the signal timing and the traffic queue length together with its probability density function. Two stochastic distribution control algorithms were designed to control the signal timing at intersections such that the probability density function of the traffic queue of each intersection road segment is made as narrow and as small as possible. Also, a recursive input-output traffic queue estimation model was proposed, which is data-driven and dynamic in nature, to calculate real-time traffic queue length using traffic signal timings and loop-detector data. The control algorithms were evaluated for a one-signal corridor, two-signal corridor, and 2 x 2 network of signalized intersections. MATLAB simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the use of the proposed algorithms and comparison to the existing widely-used semi-actuated control has been made. Desired results were obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A method for solving stochastic equations by reduced order models and local approximations

A method is proposed for solving equations with random entries, referred to as stochastic equations (SEs). The method is based on two recent developments. The first approximates the response surface giving the solution of a stochastic equation as a function of its random parameters by a finite set of hyperplanes tangent to it at expansion points selected by geometrical arguments. The second approximates the vector of random parameters in the definition of a stochastic equation by a simple random vector, referred to as stochastic reduced order model (SROM), and uses it to construct a SROM for the solution of this equation. The proposed method is a direct extension of these two methods. It uses SROMs to select expansion points, rather than selecting these points by geometrical considerations, and represents the solution by linear and/or higher order local approximations. The implementation and the performance of the method are illustrated by numerical examples involving random eigenvalue problems and stochastic algebraic/differential equations. The method is conceptually simple, non-intrusive, efficient relative to classical Monte Carlo simulation, accurate, and guaranteed to converge to the exact solution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Adaptive surrogate modeling by ANOVA and sparse polynomial dimensional decomposition for global sensitivity analysis in fluid simulation

The Polynomial Dimensional Decomposition (PDD) is employed in this work for the global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) of stochastic systems subject to a moderate to large number of input random variables. Due to the intimate connection between the PDD and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches, PDD is able to provide a simpler and more direct evaluation of the Sobol' sensitivity indices, when compared to the Polynomial Chaos expansion (PC). Unfortunately, the number of PDD terms grows exponentially with respect to the size of the input random vector, which makes the computational cost of standard methods unaffordable for real engineering applications. In order to address the problem of the curse of dimensionality, this work proposes essentially variance-based adaptive strategies aiming to build a cheap meta-model (i.e. surrogate model) by employing the sparse PDD approach with its coefficients computed by regression. Three levels of adaptivity are carried out in this paper: 1) the truncated dimensionality for ANOVA component functions, 2) the active dimension technique especially for second- and higher-order parameter interactions, and 3) the stepwise regression approach designed to retain only the most influential polynomials in the PDD expansion. During this adaptive procedure featuring stepwise regressions, the surrogate model representation keeps containing few terms, so that the cost to resolve repeatedly the linear systems of the least-squares regression problem is negligible. The size of the finally obtained sparse PDD representation is much smaller than the one of the full expansion, since only significant terms are eventually retained. Consequently, a much smaller number of calls to the deterministic model is required to compute the final PDD coefficients.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Simulation of rotor blade element turbulence

A piloted, motion-based simulation of Sikorsky's Black Hawk helicopter was used as a platform for the investigation of rotorcraft responses to vertical turbulence. By using an innovative temporal and geometrical distribution algorithm that preserved the statistical characteristics of the turbulence over the rotor disc, stochastic velocity components were applied at each of twenty blade-element stations. This model was implemented on NASA Ames' Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), and ten test pilots were used to establish that the model created realistic cues. The objectives of this research included the establishment of a simulation-technology basis for future investigation into real-time turbulence modeling. This goal was achieved; our extensive additions to the rotor model added less than a 10 percent computational overhead. Using a VAX 9000 computer the entire simulation required a cycle time of less than 12 msec. Pilot opinion during this simulation was generally quite favorable. For low speed flight the consensus was that SORBET (acronym for title) was better than the conventional body-fixed model, which was used for comparison purposes, and was determined to be too violent (like a washboard). For high speed flight the pilots could not identify differences between these models. These opinions were something of a surprise because only the vertical turbulence component on the rotor system was implemented in SORBET. Because of the finite-element distribution of the inputs, induced outputs were observed in all translational and rotational axes. Extensive post-simulation spectral analyses of the SORBET model suggest that proper rotorcraft turbulence modeling requires that vertical atmospheric disturbances not be superimposed at the vehicle center of gravity but, rather, be input into the rotor system, where the rotor-to-body transfer function severely attenuates high frequency rotorcraft responses.

Mcfarland, R. E.↗

A simulation of remote sensor systems and data processing algorithms for spectral feature classification

A computational model of the deterministic and stochastic processes involved in multispectral remote sensing was designed to evaluate the performance of sensor systems and data processing algorithms for spectral feature classification. Accuracy in distinguishing between categories of surfaces or between specific types is developed as a means to compare sensor systems and data processing algorithms. The model allows studies to be made of the effects of variability of the atmosphere and of surface reflectance, as well as the effects of channel selection and sensor noise. Examples of these effects are shown.

Arduini, R. F.↗

A Numerical Study of Forbush Decreases with a 3D Cosmic-Ray Modulation Model Based on an SDE Approach

Based on the reduced diffusion mechanism for producing Forbush decreases (Fds) in the heliosphere, we constructed a three-dimensional (3D) diffusion barrier, and by incorporating it into a stochastic differential equation (SDE) based time-dependent, cosmic-ray transport model, a 3D numerical model for simulating Fds is built and applied to a period of relatively quiet solar activity. This SDE model generally corroborates previous Fd simulations concerning the effects of the solar magnetic polarity, the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and cosmic-ray particle energy. Because the modulation processes in this 3D model are multi-directional, the barrier’s geometrical features affect the intensity profiles of Fds differently. We find that both the latitudinal and longitudinal extent of the barrier have relatively fewer effects on these profiles than its radial extent and the level of decreased diffusion inside the disturbance. We find, with the 3D approach, that the HCS rotational motion causes the relative location from the observation point to the HCS to vary, so that a periodic pattern appears in the cosmic-ray intensity at the observing location. Correspondingly, the magnitude and recovery time of an Fd change, and the recovering intensity profile contains oscillation as well. Investigating the Fd magnitude variation with heliocentric radial distance, we find that the magnitude decreases overall and, additionally, that the Fd magnitude exhibits an oscillating pattern as the radial distance increases, which coincides well with the wavy profile of the HCS under quiet solar modulation conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Combined modeling of acceleration, transport, and hydrodynamic response in solar flares. II. Inclusion of radiative transfer with RADYN

Solar flares involve complex processes that are coupled and span a wide range of temporal, spatial, and energy scales. Modeling such processes self-consistently has been a challenge in the past. Here we present results from simulations that couple particle kinetics with hydrodynamics (HD) of the atmospheric plasma. We combine the Stanford unified Fokker–Planck code that models particle acceleration and transport with the RADYN HD code that models the atmospheric response to collisional heating by accelerated electrons through detailed radiative transfer calculations. We perform simulations using two different electron spectra, one an ad hoc power law and the other predicted by the model of stochastic acceleration by turbulence or plasma waves. Surprisingly, the later model, even with energy flux ≪10{sup 10} erg s{sup −1} cm{sup −2}, can cause “explosive” chromospheric evaporation and drive stronger up- and downflows (and HD shocks). This is partly because our acceleration model, like many others, produces a spectrum consisting of a quasi-thermal component plus a power-law tail. We synthesize emission-line profiles covering different heights in the lower atmosphere, including Hα 6563 Å, He ii 304 Å, Ca ii K 3934 Å, and Si iv 1393 Å. One interesting result is the unusual high temperature (up to a few times 10{sup 5} K) of the formation site of He ii 304 Å, which is expected owing to photoionization-recombination under flare conditions, compared to those in the quiet Sun dominated by collisional excitation. When compared with observations, our results can constrain the properties of nonthermal electrons and thus the poorly understood particle acceleration mechanism.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Higher moments of primordial non-Gaussianity and N-body simulations

We perform cosmological N-body simulations with non-Gaussian initial conditions generated from two independent fields. The dominant contribution to the perturbations comes from a purely Gaussian field, but we allow the second field to have local non-Gaussianity that need not be weak. This scenario allows us to adjust the relative importance of non-Gaussian contributions beyond the skewness, producing a scaling of the higher moments different from (and stronger than) the scaling in the usual single field local ansatz. We compare semi-analytic prescriptions for the non-Gaussian mass function, large scale halo bias, and stochastic bias against the simulation results. We discuss applications of this work to large scale structure measurements that can test a wider range of models for the primordial fluctuations than is usually explored.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Phase transitions of macromolecular microsphere composite hydrogels based on the stochastic Cahn–Hilliard equation

We use the stochastic Cahn–Hilliard equation to simulate the phase transitions of the macromolecular microsphere composite (MMC) hydrogels under a random disturbance. Based on the Flory–Huggins lattice model and the Boltzmann entropy theorem, we develop a reticular free energy suit for the network structure of MMC hydrogels. Taking the random factor into account, with the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau (TDGL) mesoscopic simulation method, we set up a stochastic Cahn–Hilliard equation, designated herein as the MMC-TDGL equation. The stochastic term in the equation is constructed appropriately to satisfy the fluctuation-dissipation theorem and is discretized on a spatial grid for the simulation. A semi-implicit difference scheme is adopted to numerically solve the MMC-TDGL equation. Some numerical experiments are performed with different parameters. The results are consistent with the physical phenomenon, which verifies the good simulation of the stochastic term.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A high-fidelity approach towards simulation of pool boiling

A novel numerical approach is developed to simulate the multiscale problem of pool-boiling phase change. The particular focus is to develop a simulation technique that is capable of predicting the heat transfer and hydrodynamic characteristics of nucleate boiling and the transition to critical heat flux on surfaces of arbitrary shape and roughness distribution addressing a critical need to design enhanced boiling heat transfer surfaces. The macro-scale of the phase change and bubble dynamics is addressed through employing off-the-shelf Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods for interface tracking and interphase mass and energy transfer. The micro-scale of the microlayer, which forms at early stage of bubble nucleation near the wall, is resolved through asymptotic approximation of the thin-film theory which provides a closed-form solution for the distribution of the micro-layer and its influence on the evaporation process. In addition, the sub-grid surface roughness is represented stochastically through probabilistic density functions and its role in bubble nucleation and growth is then represented based on the thermodynamics of nucleation process. This combination of deterministic CFD, local approximation, and stochastic representation allows the simulation of pool boiling on any surface with known roughness and enhancement characteristics. The numerical model is validated for dynamics and hydrothermal characteristics of a single nucleated bubble on a flat surface against available literature data. In addition, the prediction of pool-boiling heat transfer coefficient is verified against experimental measurements as well as reputable correlations for various roughness distributions and different surface orientations. Finally, the model is employed to demonstrate pool-boiling phenomenon on enhanced structures with reentrance cavities and to explore the effect of enhancement feature design on thermal and hydrodynamic characteristics of these surfaces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Cosmological Evidence Modelling: a new simulation-based approach to constrain cosmology on non-linear scales

Extracting accurate cosmological information from galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–matter correlation functions on non-linear scales (${\lesssim } 10 \, h^{-1}{\rm {Mpc}}$) requires cosmological simulations. Additionally, one has to marginalize over several nuisance parameters of the galaxy–halo connection. However, the computational cost of such simulations prohibits naive implementations of stochastic posterior sampling methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) that would require of order $\mathcal {O}(10^6)$ samples in cosmological parameter space. Several groups have proposed surrogate models as a solution: a so-called emulator is trained to reproduce observables for a limited number of realizations in parameter space. Afterwards, this emulator is used as a surrogate model in an MCMC analysis. In this work, we demonstrate a different method called Cosmological Evidence Modelling (CEM). First, for each simulation, we calculate the Bayesian evidence marginalized over the galaxy–halo connection by repeatedly populating the simulation with galaxies. We show that this Bayesian evidence is directly related to the posterior probability of cosmological parameters. Finally, we build a physically motivated model for how the evidence depends on cosmological parameters as sampled by the simulations. We demonstrate the feasibility of CEM by using simulations from the Aemulus simulation suite and forecasting cosmological constraints from BOSS CMASS measurements of redshift-space distortions. Our analysis includes exploration of how galaxy assembly bias affects cosmological inference. Overall, CEM has several potential advantages over the more common approach of emulating summary statistics, including the ability to easily marginalize over highly complex models of the galaxy–halo connection and greater accuracy, thereby reducing the number of simulations required.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A PURE HYDRODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IN SHEAR FLOWS AND ITS APPLICATION TO ASTROPHYSICAL ACCRETION DISKS

We provide a possible resolution for the century-old problem of hydrodynamic shear flows, which are apparently stable in linear analysis but shown to be turbulent in astrophysically observed data and experiments. This mismatch is noticed in a variety of systems, from laboratory to astrophysical flows. There are so many uncountable attempts made so far to resolve this mismatch, beginning with the early work of Kelvin, Rayleigh, and Reynolds toward the end of the nineteenth century. Here we show that the presence of stochastic noise, whose inevitable presence should not be neglected in the stability analysis of shear flows, leads to pure hydrodynamic linear instability therein. This explains the origin of turbulence, which has been observed/interpreted in astrophysical accretion disks, laboratory experiments, and direct numerical simulations. This is, to the best of our knowledge, the first solution to the long-standing problem of hydrodynamic instability of Rayleigh-stable flows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Holistic DSMC Transport Database for Re-Entry and Ablation Modeling

Hybrid simulation frameworks combining Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are frequently employed to efficiently perform high-fidelity solutions of environments containing combined continuum/rarified flow. The use of DSMC, a stochastic, particle-based method, is necessary for high-Knudsen flow where continuum-based assumptions governing CFD break down. However, the DSMC methodology is generally very computationally inefficient to model the continuum regime. In a CFD/DSMC hybrid approach, obtaining an accurate, high-fidelity solution hinges on the consistent treatment of transport properties and the used thermo-chemical models employed within the two solvers. In principle, in regions where CFD and DSMC are both employed, the same gas mixture under the same conditions should have the same properties, regardless of simulation type. Observed differences should be due to non-equilibrium processes, rather than differences in physical models. While the transport models governing CFD and DSMC simulations are starkly different, they can effectively be linked via their use of reduced Chapman-Enskog collision integrals. In CFD, these integrals are typically stored as fitted polynomial expressions and used to directly compute gas transport properties via mixing rules or the full Chapman-Enskog formulation. In DSMC, they can be used to derive the collision parameters needed for the phenomenological collision cross-section models that govern particle interactions, via a Nelder-Mead optimization scheme. The goal of this work is to provide a unified DSMC transport database encompassing the vast majority of known gas species encountered during atmospheric entry, on Earth or any other Solar body. This goal is largely possible due to recently performed ab-initio quantum chemistry calculations. Combined with other high-fidelity literature sources, the planned database will consist of collision integral data for over 200 neutral and ionized species and over 17000 binary collisions. From these collision integrals, Nelder-Mead optimization is used to compute Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) collision model parameters for DSMC, fitted from 300 K to 20000 K. Initial comparisons of transport properties of relevant equilibrium gas mixtures show great agreement between CFD and DSMC-derived results. The completed database will be able to be readily applied to model binary collisions of any gas mixture containing the included species over the specified temperature range, making it a valuable tool for future planetary probe modeling efforts. An example is shown below. Equilibrium mixture transport properties for a 19-species Titan atmospheric model [4] are computed using both fitted VSS parameters and the original CFD collision integral values. Deviations in computed properties between the two approaches is less than 5% for the entire temperature range.

M R Gosma↗

Uncertainty Propagation in Coupled Atmosphere–Wave–Ocean Prediction System: A Study of Hurricane Earl (2010)

This study focuses on understanding the evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010) with respect to random perturbations in the storm’s initial strength, size, and asymmetry in wind distribution. We rely on the Unified Wave Interface-Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a fully coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean system to generate a storm realization ensemble, and use polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to build surrogate models for time evolution of both the maximum wind speed and minimum sea level pressure in Earl. The resulting PC surrogate models provide statistical insights on probability distributions of model responses throughout the simulation time span. Statistical analysis of rapid intensification (RI) suggests that initial perturbations having intensified and counterclockwise-rotated winds are more likely to undergo RI. In addition, for the range of initial conditions considered RI seems mostly sensitive to azimuthally averaged maximum wind speed and asymmetry orientation, rather than storm size and asymmetry magnitude; this is consistent with global sensitivity analysis of PC surrogate models. Finally, we combine initial condition perturbations with a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) forcing in the UWIN-CM simulations and conclude that the storm tracks are substantially influenced by the SKEBS forcing perturbations, whereas the perturbations in initial conditions alone had only limited impact on the storm-track forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robustness analysis of an air heating plant and control law by using polynomial chaos

This paper presents a robustness analysis of an air heating plant with a multivariable closed-loop control law by using the polynomial chaos methodology (MPC). The plant consists of a PVC tube with a fan in the air input (that forces the air through the tube) and a mass flux sensor in the output. A heating resistance warms the air as it flows inside the tube, and a thermo-couple sensor measures the air temperature. The plant has thus two inputs (the fan's rotation intensity and heat generated by the resistance, both measured in percent of the maximum value) and two outputs (air temperature and air mass flux, also in percent of the maximal value). The mathematical model is obtained by System Identification techniques. The mass flux sensor, which is nonlinear, is linearized and the delays in the transfer functions are properly approximated by non-minimum phase transfer functions. The resulting model is transformed to a state-space model, which is used for control design purposes. The multivariable robust control design techniques used is the LQG/LTR, and the controllers are validated in simulation software and in the real plant. Finally, the MPC is applied by considering some of the system's parameters as random variables (one at a time, and the system's stochastic differential equations are solved by expanding the solution (a stochastic process) in an orthogonal basis of polynomial functions of the basic random variables. This method transforms the stochastic equations in a set of deterministic differential equations, which can be solved by traditional numerical methods (That is the MPC). Statistical data for the system (like expected values and variances) are then calculated. The effects of randomness in the parameters are evaluated in the open-loop and closed-loop pole's positions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multiscale Universal Interface: A concurrent framework for coupling heterogeneous solvers

Graphical abstract: - Abstract: Concurrently coupled numerical simulations using heterogeneous solvers are powerful tools for modeling multiscale phenomena. However, major modifications to existing codes are often required to enable such simulations, posing significant difficulties in practice. In this paper we present a C++ library, i.e. the Multiscale Universal Interface (MUI), which is capable of facilitating the coupling effort for a wide range of multiscale simulations. The library adopts a header-only form with minimal external dependency and hence can be easily dropped into existing codes. A data sampler concept is introduced, combined with a hybrid dynamic/static typing mechanism, to create an easily customizable framework for solver-independent data interpretation. The library integrates MPI MPMD support and an asynchronous communication protocol to handle inter-solver information exchange irrespective of the solvers' own MPI awareness. Template metaprogramming is heavily employed to simultaneously improve runtime performance and code flexibility. We validated the library by solving three different multiscale problems, which also serve to demonstrate the flexibility of the framework in handling heterogeneous models and solvers. In the first example, a Couette flow was simulated using two concurrently coupled Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of different spatial resolutions. In the second example, we coupled the deterministic SPH method with the stochastic Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD) method to study the effect of surface grafting on the hydrodynamics properties on the surface. In the third example, we consider conjugate heat transfer between a solid domain and a fluid domain by coupling the particle-based energy-conserving DPD (eDPD) method with the Finite Element Method (FEM)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multiscale Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Fuel Performance

In this project, we will address the challenges associated with constructing high fidelity multiscale models of nuclear fuel performance. We (*) propose a novel approach for coupling mesoscale and macroscale models, (*) devise efficient numerical methods for simulating the coupled system, and (*) devise and analyze effective numerical approaches for error and uncertainty quantification for the coupled multiscale system. As an integral part of the project, we will carry out analysis of the effects of upscaling and downscaling, investigate efficient methods for stochastic sensitivity analysis of the individual macroscale and mesoscale models, and carry out a posteriori error analysis for computed results. We will pursue development and implementation of solutions in software used at Idaho National Laboratories on models of interest to the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗