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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Helicity Sign of Flux Transfer Event Flux Ropes and Its Relationship to the Guide Field and Hall Physics in Magnetic Reconnection at the Magnetopause

Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) are transient magnetic flux ropes typically found at the Earth's magnetopause on the dayside. While it is known that FTEs are generated by magnetic reconnection, it remains unclear how the details of magnetic reconnection controls their properties. A recent study showed that the helicity sign of FTEs positively correlates with the east-west (B y ) component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). With data from the Cluster and Magnetospheric Multiscale missions, we performed a statistical study of 166 quasi force-free FTEs. We focus on their helicity sign and possible association with upstream solar wind conditions and local magnetic reconnection properties. Using both in situ data and magnetic shear modeling, we find that FTEs whose helicity sign corresponds to the IMF B y are associated with moderate magnetic shears while those that do not correspond to the IMF B y are associated with higher magnetic shears. While uncertainty in IMF propagation to the magnetopause may lead to randomness in the determination of the flux rope core field and helicity, we rather propose that for small IMF B y , which corresponds to high shear and low guide field, the Hall pattern of magnetic reconnection determines the FTE core field and helicity sign. In that context we explain how the temporal sequence of multiple X-line formation and the reconnection rate are important in determining the flux rope helicity sign. This work highlights a fundamental connection between kinetic processes at work in magnetic reconnection and the macroscale structure of FTEs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Assessment of the Influence of Uncertainty in Temporally Evolving Streamflow Forecasts on Riverine Inundation Modeling

Continental-scale river forecasting platforms forecast streamflow at reaches that can be used as boundary conditions to drive a local-scale flood inundation model. Uncertainty accumulated during this process stems not only from any part of the forecasting chain but can also be caused by the daily variations in weather forcing that keeps evolving as the event advances. This work aims to examine the influence of the evolving forecast streamflow on predicting the maximum inundation for extreme floods. A diagnostic case study was made on the basis of a hindcast of Hurricane Matthew striking the eastern U.S. in 2016. The U.S. National Water Model was one-way coupled to a hydrodynamic inundation model through a developed automated workflow. Although the river forcing has significantly mismatched hydrographs versus observations, the simulated peak water surface elevations and maximum extents were validated to be comparable with the observations, which indicates that the inundation model may not be sensitive to the inherited uncertainty from the weather forcing. Moreover, the uncertainty of the forecast streamflow time series caused only one order of magnitude fewer variations in inundation prediction; this dampening effect may become clearer for extreme events with large areas inundated. In addition, the forecast total volume of stream discharge appears to be an important metric for assessing the performance of river forcing for inundation mapping, as a linear correlation between the total volume and the accuracy of the predicted peak water surface elevation and maximum extent was found, with the coefficients of determination all above 0.8. Extra best-practice experience of running similar operational tasks demonstrated the tradeoff between the cost and accuracy gain.

flood, national water model, RIFT↗
DOE OSTI2020

In Situ Chemical Monitoring and Imaging of Contents within Microfluidic Devices Having a Porous Membrane Wall Using Liquid Microjunction Surface Sampling Probe Mass Spectrometry

The ability to observe dynamic chemical processes (e.g., signaling, transport, etc.) in vivo or in situ using nondestructive chemical imaging opens a new door to understanding the complex dynamics of developing biological systems. With the advent of “biology-on-a-chip” devices has come the ability to monitor dynamic chemical processes in a controlled environment, using these engineered habitats to capture key features of natural systems while allowing visual observation of system development. Having the capability to spatially and temporally map the chemical signals within these devices may yield new insights into the forces that drive biosystem development. Here, a porous membrane sealed microfluidic device was designed to allow normal microfluidic operation while enabling continuous, location specific sampling and chemical characterization by liquid microjunction surface sampling probe mass spectrometry (LMJ-SSP MS). LMJ-SSP was used to extract fluids with nL-to-μL/min flow rates directly from selected areas of the microfluidic device without negatively impacting the device function. These extracts were subsequently characterized using MS. This technique was used to acquire MS images of the entirety of several multi-input microfluidic devices having different degrees of fluid mixing. LMJ-SSP MS imaging visualized the spatial distribution of chemical components within the microfluidic channels and could visualize chemical reactions occurring in the device. These microfluidic devices with a porous membrane wall are wholly compatible with the construction of biology-on-a-chip devices. This ultimately would enable correlation of biosystem physical structure with an evolving chemical environment

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Symmetry Protected Two-Photon Coherence Time

We report the observation of symmetry protected two-photon coherence time of biphotons generated from backward spontaneous four-wave mixing in laser-cooled 87 Rb atoms. When biphotons are nondegenerate, nonsymmetric photonic absorption loss results in exponential decay of the temporal waveform of the two-photon joint probability amplitude, leading to shortened coherence time. In contrast, in the case of degenerate biphotons, when both paired photons propagate with the same group velocity and absorption coefficient, the two-photon coherence time, protected by space-time symmetry, remains unaffected by medium absorptive losses. Furthermore, our experimental results validate these theoretical predictions. This outcome highlights the pivotal role of symmetry in manipulating and controlling photonic quantum states.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Taxon-specific microbial growth and mortality patterns reveal distinct temporal population responses to rewetting in a California grassland soil

Abstract Microbial activity increases after rewetting dry soil, resulting in a pulse of carbon mineralization and nutrient availability. The biogeochemical responses to wet-up are reasonably well understood and known to be microbially mediated. Yet, the population level dynamics, and the resulting changes in microbial community patterns, are not well understood as ecological phenomena. Here, we used sequencing of 16S rRNA genes coupled with heavy water (H218O) DNA quantitative stable isotope probing to estimate population-specific rates of growth and mortality in response to a simulated wet-up event in a California annual grassland soil. Bacterial growth and mortality responded rapidly to wet-up, within 3 h, and continued throughout the 168 h incubation, with patterns of sequential growth observed at the phylum level. Of the 37 phyla detected in the prewet community, growth was found in 18 phyla while mortality was measured in 26 phyla. Rapid growth and mortality rates were measurable within 3 h of wet-up but had contrasting characteristics; growth at 3 h was dominated by select taxa within the Proteobacteria and Firmicutes, whereas mortality was taxonomically widespread. Furthermore, across the community, mortality exhibited density-independence, consistent with the indiscriminate shock resulting from dry-down and wet-up, whereas growth was density-dependent, consistent with control by competition or predation. Total aggregated growth across the community was highly correlated with total soil CO2 production. Together, these results illustrate how previously “invisible” population responses can translate quantitatively to emergent observations of ecosystem-scale biogeochemistry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temporal dynamics of large-scale structures for turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in a moderate aspect-ratio cylinder

We investigate the spatial organization and temporal dynamics of large-scale, coherent structures in turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection via direct numerical simulation of a 6.3 aspect-ratio cylinder with Rayleigh and Prandtl numbers of 9.6×10 7 and 6.7, respectively. Fourier modal decomposition is performed to investigate the structural organization of the coherent turbulent motions by analysing the length scales, time scales and the underlying dynamical processes that are ultimately responsible for the large-scale structure formation and evolution. We observe a high level of rotational symmetry in the large-scale structure in this study and that the structure is well described by the first four azimuthal Fourier modes. Two different large-scale organizations are observed during the duration of the simulation and these patterns are dominated spatially and energetically by azimuthal Fourier modes with frequencies of 2 and 3. Studies of the transition between these two large-scale patterns, radial and vertical variations in the azimuthal energy spectra, as well as the spatial and modal variations in the system's correlation time are conducted. Rotational dynamics are observed for individual Fourier modes and the global structure with strong similarities to the dynamics that have been reported for unit aspect-ratio domains in prior works. It is shown that the large-scale structures have very long correlation time scales, on the order of hundreds to thousands of free-fall time units, and that they are the primary source for a horizontal inhomogeneity within the system that can be observed during a finite, but a very long-time simulation or experiment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transient superconductivity at nano- and meso-scales

High-T c superconductivity is surpassed by few, if any, other unsolved problems in contemporary physics in terms of its richness, complexity, impact on other fields, and potential technological importance in energy applications. Recent discoveries reveal that the highest transition temperatures emerge under extraordinary experimental conditions such as the strong perturbation of a single atomic layer material by the underlying substrate, application of ~200 GPa pressure or ~MV/cm static electric fields, or irradiation by intense femtosecond optical fields. Research in superconductivity under extreme experimental conditions is challenging and requires the development of novel experimental methods and new theoretical tools suitable to tackle the problem. Our team has approached the challenges of transient superconductivity under intense optical fields by rethinking the types of experimental observables that are best suited to elucidate the physics of light-induced effects. This exercise has identified the need for: i) ultra-fast spatio-temporal probes enabling access to plasmonic properties and also nano-scale inhomogeneities that are ubiquitous in unconventional superconductors; ii) meso-scale structures and hybrid meta-surfaces imperative for strong enhancement of optical fields and iii) theoretical approaches suitable to explain and predict the response of superconductors under ultra-fast photo-excitation. Co-PIs have already made major advances with developing capabilities i)-iii). Therefore, our team is poised to make significant progress in transient superconductivity by exploring novel spatio-temporal effects that currently remain unattainable. Co-investigators will search for light-induced superconductivity in the high-T c cuprates to build upon spectacular recent results still lacking independent confirmations. Novel data acquisition methods combined with nano-plasmonic imaging will allow our team to test the hypothesis of photo-induced superconducting pairing. Spatio-temporal experiments will provide insights into the interplay between superconductivity and competing orders in the cuprates. Co-PIs will also investigate strong light-matter interaction and superconductivity in FeSe monolayers. Finally, we will study spatio-temporal electrodynamics of planar Josephson junctions. This latter direction will allow our team to thoroughly characterize one of the most fundamental examples of inhomogeneity in all of unconventional superconductivity. The proposed experiments in combination with theoretical analysis will provide information that is difficult to obtain using alternative methods. Basov and Averitt will carry out pump-probe spectroscopy and nano-imaging experiments. Averitt and Hone will design and fabricate state-of-the-art meta-surfaces. Theoretical and computational studies of ultrafast transient phenomena will be carried out by Millis and Fogler. Modeling of time-resolved nano-optical effects will be done by Fogler. The bulk of the requested budget will be used to support graduate students at Columbia & UCSD that will be co-supervised by co-PIs. The proposed program is transformative, since it will enable an entire suite of experiments previously either impossible or technically implausible. It will deliver critically important insights not only into mechanisms of unconventional superconductivity but also to many other correlated quantum materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Forecasting of Distributed Temperature Sensing in a Thermal Hydraulic System With Machine Learning and Statistical Models

We benchmark performance of long-short term memory (LSTM) network machine learning model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model in temporal forecasting of distributed temperature sensing (DTS). Data in this study consists of fluid temperature transient measured with two co-located Rayleigh scattering fiber optic sensors (FOS) in a forced convection mixing zone of a thermal tee. We treat each gauge of a FOS as an independent temperature sensor. We first study prediction of DTS time series using Vanilla LSTM and ARIMA models trained on prior history of the same FOS that is used for testing. The results yield maximum absolute percentage error (MaxAPE) and root mean squared percentage error (RMSPE) of 1.58% and 0.06% for ARIMA, and 3.14% and 0.44% for LSTM, respectively. Next, we investigate zero-shot forecasting (ZSF) with LSTM and ARIMA trained on history of the co-located FOS only, which is advantageous when limited training data is available. The ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE values for ARIMA are comparable to those of the Vanilla use case, while the error values for LSTM increase. We show that in ZSF, performance of LSTM network can be improved by training on most correlated gauges between the two FOS, which are identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient. The improved ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE for LSTM are 4.4% and 0.33%, respectively. Performance of ZSF LSTM can be further enhanced through transfer learning (TL), where LSTM is re-trained on a subset of the FOS that is the target of forecasting. We show that LSTM pre-trained on correlated dataset and re-trained on 30% of testing target dataset achieves MaxAPE and RMSPE values of 2.32% and 0.28%, respectively.

ARIMA↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of Radiative Transfer at Reduced Spectral Resolution in Large‐Eddy Simulations of Convective Clouds

Abstract Many radiative transfer schemes approximate the spectral integration over ∼10 5 to ∼10 6 wavelengths with correlated k ‐distributions methods that typically require only 10 1 –10 2 spectral integration points ( g ‐points). The exact number of g ‐points is then chosen as an optimal balance between computational costs and accuracy, normally assessed in terms of a number of radiative quantities. How this radiative accuracy propagates to simulation accuracy, however, is not straightforward. In this study, we therefore explore the sensitivity of cloud properties in large‐eddy simulations (LES) to the accuracy of radiative fluxes and heating rates. We first generate smaller sets of g ‐points from existing k ‐distributions by repeatedly combining adjacent g ‐points while maintaining the highest possible accuracy on a chosen set of radiative metrics. Next, we perform three sets of LES with varying cloud—radiation coupling pathways, and therefore different requirements for the accuracy of the radiative transfer computations, to investigate how these smaller and thus less accurate k ‐distributions affect simulation characteristics. The decrease in radiative accuracy with 3–4 times smaller k ‐distributions results in biases in cloud properties that are relative small compared to their temporal fluctuations. These results show potential for speeding up radiative transfer computations in cloud‐resolving models by reducing the resolved spectral detail. However, more statistically converged simulations and a wider set of case studies is required to fully assess the robustness of our results.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long- and short-term temporal variability in cloud condensation nuclei spectra over a wide supersaturation range in the Southern Great Plains site

Abstract. When aerosol particles seed the formation of liquid water droplets in the atmosphere, they are called cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Different aerosols will act as CCN under different degrees of water supersaturation (relative humidity above 100 %), depending on their size and composition. In this work, we build and analyze a best-estimate CCN spectrum product, tabulated at ∼ 45 min resolution, generated using high quality data from seven independent instruments at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The data product spans a large supersaturation range, from 0.0001 % to ∼ 30 %, and time period of 5 years, from 2009–2013, and is available on the ARM data archive. We leverage this added statistical power to examine relationships that are unclear in smaller datasets. Our analysis is performed in three main areas. First, probability distributions of many aerosol and CCN metrics are found to exhibit skewed log-normal distribution shapes. Second, clustering analyses of CCN spectra reveal that the primary drivers of CCN differences are aerosol number size distributions, rather than hygroscopicity or composition, especially at supersaturations above 0.2 %, while also allowing for a simplified understanding of seasonal and diurnal variations in CCN behavior. The predictive ability of using limited hygroscopicity data with accurate number size distributions to estimate CCN spectra is investigated, and the uncertainties of this approach are estimated. Third, the dynamics of CCN spectral clusters and concentrations are examined with cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses. We find that CCN concentrations change rapidly on the timescale of 1–3 h, with some conservation beyond that which is greatest for the lower supersaturation region of the spectrum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Controlling Variables for Mercury Vapors in Alpha-4 at Y-12: Two Year Data Collection Update

Multiple sensor packages were deployed at Alpha-4 by SRNL, in collaboration with United Cleanup Oak Ridge LLC (UCOR), to monitor mercury vapor concentrations and meteorological parameters. These sensors collected data, inside and outside of the legacy-use facility, for approximately two years. Though data gaps still exist, particularly in colder months, several controlling variables were identified that govern mercury vapor concentrations within Alpha-4. Temperature, barometric pressure gradients, humidity, and wind speed have been identified as controlling variables. A strong positive correlation was seen between mercury vapor concentrations and temperature which generally followed diurnal fluctuations. Temperatures below approximately 10 degrees Celsius did not show any spikes above the PEL, indicating more work can be performed at any time during the winter months – more data should be collected to confirm consistency in this finding. Additionally, spikes in mercury vapor concentrations above that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 100 µg/m 3 ) occurred primarily in late afternoon or evening/overnight hours (between 3 PM and 6 AM), which suggests D&D operations might be best scheduled during morning or daytime hours prior to the late afternoon. However, a limited number of spikes did occur outside of the identified window, although this may be attributed to disturbances in air flow and mercury vapor release from work activities performed inside of the Alpha-4 building. The analysis conducted allows for a strong predictive capability for estimating mercury vapor concentrations based upon accurate meteorological parameters. Still, additional data collection, particularly in the winter months, could help to strengthen the predictive power and validate the identified data trends. Further, increased temporal resolution could also help to better characterize the incipient stages of the increases and decreases in the mercury vapor concentration. Continued monitoring support by SRNL at Y-12 is underway at Alpha-4 to further close remaining data gaps and support deactivation and decommissioning work. Within a collaborative effort with UCOR, the SRNL team is collecting mercury vapor data to study the efficacy of a novel mercury suppressant, FerroBlack® which was recently deployed at Alpha-4. In addition, modifications to the current monitoring setup to increase measurement resolution is also being investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental considerations and applications for time-resolved impedance on silicon-anode battery systems

Dynamic electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (dEIS) utilizes a superimposed multi-sinusoidal waveform and enables temporally resolved investigations on various electrochemical processes; however, the signal-to-noise ratio must be maximized while retaining linearity and stationarity within the system. In the present work, we probe the impact of the waveform’s total amplitude as well as the waveform and phase profiles. The equal amplitude multi-sinusoidal waveform with 35 mV total amplitude (<1 mV per frequency) and random phase profile exhibits the lowest impedance noise. This input signal is sufficient in avoiding the high frequency signal attenuation from the potentiostat’s low-pass filter. Additionally, we demonstrate the optimized dEIS waveform’s utility in investigating surface passivation within thin-film and composite silicon (Si) anodes. Within a two-electrode Si-lithium metal coin cell, the charge transfer resistance (RCT) associated with alloying kinetics dominates the overall impedance. RCT increases with state of charge indicating a kinetic bottleneck at higher lithiation states. To explore this further, we utilize a three-electrode Si-LiNi0.8Mn0.1Co0.1O2 pouch cell to deconvolute the Si impedance contributions. The evolution of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) and charge transfer resistances correlate to specific Li–Si alloy phases. We attribute this to the influence of Si particle volume expansion on SEI instabilities and a kinetic bottleneck at higher lithiation states.

Lam, Steven [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential of hotspot solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence for better tracking terrestrial photosynthesis

Abstract Remote sensing of solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) opens a new window for quantifying a key ecological variable, the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), because of the revealed strong SIF–GPP correlation. However, similar to many other remotely sensed metrics, SIF observations suffer from the sun‐sensor geometry effects, which may have important impacts on the SIF–GPP relationship but remain poorly understood. Here we used remotely sensed SIF, globally distributed tower GPP data, and a mechanistic model to provide a systematic analysis. Our results reveal that leaf physiology, canopy structure, and sun‐sensor geometries all affect the SIF–GPP relationship. In particular, we found that SIF observations in the sun‐tracking hotspot direction can be a better proxy of GPP due to the similar responses of light use efficiency and SIF escaping probability in the hotspot direction to the increasing incoming solar radiation. Such conclusions are supported by a variety of modeling simulations and satellite observations over various plant function types, at different time scales and with satellite observational modes. This study demonstrates the potential and advantage of normalizing SIF observations to the hotspot direction for better global GPP estimations. This study also demonstrates the great potentials of current and future spaceborne sun‐tracking satellite missions for a significant improvement in measuring and monitoring, at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, the changes in terrestrial ecosystem GPP in response to anticipated changes in the Earth's environmental conditions.

Hao, Dalei↗
DOE OSTI2020

Xylella fastidiosa causes transcriptional shifts that precede tylose formation and starch depletion in xylem

Abstract Pierce's disease (PD) in grapevine ( Vitis vinifera ) is caused by the bacterial pathogen Xylella fastidiosa . X. fastidiosa is limited to the xylem tissue and following infection induces extensive plant‐derived xylem blockages, primarily in the form of tyloses. Tylose‐mediated vessel occlusions are a hallmark of PD, particularly in susceptible V. vinifera . We temporally monitored tylose development over the course of the disease to link symptom severity to the level of tylose occlusion and the presence/absence of the bacterial pathogen at fine‐scale resolution. The majority of vessels containing tyloses were devoid of bacterial cells, indicating that direct, localized perception of X. fastidiosa was not a primary cause of tylose formation. In addition, we used X‐ray computed microtomography and machine‐learning to determine that X. fastidiosa induces significant starch depletion in xylem ray parenchyma cells. This suggests that a signalling mechanism emanating from the vessels colonized by bacteria enables a systemic response to X. fastidiosa infection. To understand the transcriptional changes underlying these phenotypes, we integrated global transcriptomics into the phenotypes we tracked over the disease spectrum. Differential gene expression analysis revealed that considerable transcriptomic reprogramming occurred during early PD before symptom appearance. Specifically, we determined that many genes associated with tylose formation (ethylene signalling and cell wall biogenesis) and drought stress were up‐regulated during both Phase I and Phase II of PD. On the contrary, several genes related to photosynthesis and carbon fixation were down‐regulated during both phases. These responses correlate with significant starch depletion observed in ray cells and tylose synthesis in vessels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Root and Microbial Soil CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes Respond Differently to Seasonal and Episodic Environmental Changes in a Temperate Forest

Upland forest soils are typically major atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources and methane (CH 4 ) sinks, but the contributions of root and microbial processes, as well as their separate temporal responses to environmental change, remain poorly understood. This 2-year study was conducted in a temperate, deciduous forest located on the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, USA. We used temporal CO 2 and CH 4 flux measurements, exclusion-source partitioning, and an ecosystem-scale flooding experiment to understand how carbon (C) fluxes, and their root and microbial sources, respond to seasonal and episodic environmental change. Here, we show that the root-and-rhizosphere component of soil CO 2 and CH 4 flux is significant and that its dependence on soil temperature and volumetric water content (VWC) influences soil C dynamics at seasonal timescales. Experimental flooding shows that CO 2 and CH 4 flux responses to episodic moisture change were driven by suppression of soil heterotrophs, while root respiration did not respond to transient hydrologic disturbance. Methane uptake responded strongly to episodic inundation, reinforcing the important role of soil moisture in the short-term control of the forest soil CH 4 sink. However, despite the clear seasonality of CH 4 uptake, as well as its strong response to short-term experimental inundation, temperature and VWC were weak predictors of CH 4 uptake at a seasonal timescale. We suggest that CH 4 consumption in the long-term may be determined by vegetation, nutrients, microbial communities, or other factors correlated with seasonal changes. Our results indicate that root and microbial sources of both CO 2 and CH 4 flux respond differently in timing and magnitude to seasonal and episodic environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaia EDR3 Reveals the Substructure and Complicated Star Formation History of the Greater Taurus-Auriga Star-forming Complex

The Taurus-Auriga complex is the prototypical low-mass star-forming region, and provides a unique testbed of the star formation process, which left observable imprints on the spatial, kinematic, and temporal structure of its stellar population. Taurus’s rich observational history has uncovered peculiarities that suggest a complicated star-forming event, such as members at large distances from the molecular clouds and evidence of an age spread. With Gaia, an in-depth study of the Taurus census is possible, to confirm membership, identify substructure, and reconstruct its star formation history. We have compiled an expansive census of the greater Taurus region, identifying spatial subgroups and confirming that Taurus is substructured across stellar density. There are two populations of subgroups: clustered groups near the clouds and sparse groups spread throughout the region. The sparse groups comprise Taurus’s distributed population, which is on average older than the population near the clouds, and hosts subpopulations up to 15 Myr old. The ages of the clustered groups increase with distance, suggesting that the current star formation was triggered from behind. Still, the region is kinematically coherent, and its velocity structure reflects an initial turbulent spectrum similar to Larson’s Law that has been modified by dynamical relaxation. Overall, Taurus has a complicated star formation history, with at least two epochs of star formation featuring both clustered and distributed modes. Given the correlations between age and spatial distribution, Taurus might be part of a galaxy-scale star-forming event that can only begin to be understood in the Gaia era.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

US wildfire potential: a historical view and future projection using high-resolution climate data

Abstract Recent wildfires in the western United States have led to substantial economic losses and social stresses. There is a great concern that the new climatic state may further increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires. To examine temporal and spatial features of historical wildfire trends and future changes, a common fire index, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), is calculated over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska. We introduce an efficient initialization method and calculate 36 years (1982–2017) of historical KBDI at 4 km using a high-quality observational dataset. KBDIs are also calculated at 12 km using regional climate models and extended into the mid- and late-21st century. Based on the observational data, annual mean (and 95th percentile) KBDI over forested regions in the southwestern and northwestern CONUS has risen since 1982 at a rate of 5.2 (4.0) and 2.9 (3.3) per year, respectively, indicating a persistent drying trend fostering fire activities; the number of days exceeding the top 5% historical KBDI has increased by 16 and 25 d in the 36 years. Multiple regional climate model simulations project increasing wildfire potential and longer fire seasons over broader areas based on the estimated KBDI for the mid- and late-21st century. By the end of the century, most of the CONUS would experience about 90–189 more days per year exceeding the historical local maximum KBDI; areas with high KBDI (>600), whose occurrence correlates with large burned area, are projected to broaden by nearly 60 times in the southern CONUS. While both temperature and precipitation contribute to future KBDI changes, warming is the main driver of more frequent, intense and wide-spread extreme wildfires indicated by high KBDIs in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗