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At least 595 records · Page 33

Analytic error analysis of cross section interpolation methods in nodal diffusion codes - II: Numerical results

This paper is the second part of a two-part paper that documents the numerical results for the partial derivatives model presented in part I. In this paper, we derive the error bounds for the analytical point-wise error expression and verify our bounds with numerical experiments. The point-wise error expressions make available, and bound, the sources that contribute to the total error of the interpolated cross section in terms of the Lagrange interpolation errors and the model form error. MPACT is used to generate two-group homogenized cross sections for Westinghouse's AP1000 Region 4 lattice to evaluate the accuracy of the bounds. Error bounds calculated over a grid are compared to numerical data for uni-variate and multi-variate interpolation. The point-wise error bounds of a typical case matrix - two branches in each state variable - are displayed for bi-variate interpolation in the state variables: moderator density, fuel temperature, and boron concentration. The error bounds are shown to be highly accurate compared to numerical results, and in accordance with the underlying physics. We then discuss and show how the sources of error contribute to the total error, and consider the improvement of each error source. Finally, we mention future work such as propagating our cross section error bounds through a reactivity calculation. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The European Russia Drought Atlas (1400-2016 CE)

We present the European Russia Drought Atlas (ERDA) that covers the East European Plain to the Ural Mountains from 1400–2016 CE. Like the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) for the Euro-Mediterranean region, the ERDA is a one-half degree gridded reconstruction of summer Palmer Drought Severity Indices estimated from a network of annual tree-ring chronologies. Ensemble point-by-point regression is used to generate the ERDA with the identical protocols used for developing the OWDA. Split calibration/validation tests of the ERDA indicate that it has significant skill over most of its domain and is much more skillful than the OWDA where they overlap in the western part of ERDA domain. Comparisons to historical droughts over European Russia additionally support the ERDA’s overall validity. The ERDA has been spatially smoothed and infilled using a local regression method to yield a spatially complete drought atlas back to 1400 CE. EOF analysis indicates that there are three principal modes of hydroclimatic variability in the ERDA. After Varimax rotation, these modes correlate significantly with independent climate data sets extending back to the late nineteenth century in a physically interpretable way and relate to atmospheric circulation dynamics of droughts and heatwaves over European Russia based on more recent instrumental data.

Cook, Edward R.↗

Machine Learning-Assisted Distribution System Network Reconfiguration Problem

High penetration from volatile renewable energy resources in the grid and the varying nature of loads raise the need for frequent line switching to ensure the efficient operation of electrical distribution networks. Operators must ensure maximum load delivery, reduced losses, and the operation between voltage limits. However, computations to decide the optimal feeder configuration are often computationally expensive and intractable, making it unfavorable for real-time operations. This is mainly due to the existence of binary variables in the network reconfiguration optimization problem. To tackle this issue, we have devised an approach that leverages machine learning techniques to reshape distribution networks featuring multiple substations. This involves predicting the substation responsible for serving each part of the network. Hence, it leaves simple and more tractable Optimal Power Flow problems to be solved. This method can produce accurate results in a significantly faster time, as demonstrated using the IEEE 37-bus distribution feeder. Compared to the traditional optimization-based approaches, a feasible solution is achieved approximately ten times faster for all the tested scenarios.

deep neural networks↗

Adjoint-Based Design of Rotors Using the Navier-Stokes Equations in a Noninertial Reference Frame

Optimization of rotorcraft flowfields using an adjoint method generally requires a time-dependent implementation of the equations. The current study examines an intermediate approach in which a subset of rotor flowfields are cast as steady problems in a noninertial reference frame. This technique permits the use of an existing steady-state adjoint formulation with minor modifications to perform sensitivity analyses. The formulation is valid for isolated rigid rotors in hover or where the freestream velocity is aligned with the axis of rotation. Discrete consistency of the implementation is demonstrated by using comparisons with a complex-variable technique, and a number of single- and multipoint optimizations for the rotorcraft figure of merit function are shown for varying blade collective angles. Design trends are shown to remain consistent as the grid is refined.

Nielsen, Eric J.↗

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗

Machine learning of hidden variables in multiscale fluid simulation

Solving fluid dynamics equations often requires the use of closure relations that account for missing microphysics. For example, when solving equations related to fluid dynamics for systems with a large Reynolds number, sub-grid effects become important and a turbulence closure is required, and in systems with a large Knudsen number, kinetic effects become important and a kinetic closure is required. By adding an equation governing the growth and transport of the quantity requiring the closure relation, it becomes possible to capture microphysics through the introduction of ‘hidden variables’ that are non-local in space and time. The behavior of the ‘hidden variables’ in response to the fluid conditions can be learned from a higher fidelity or ab-initio model that contains all the microphysics. In our study, a partial differential equation simulator that is end-to-end differentiable is used to train judiciously placed neural networks against ground-truth simulations. We show that this method enables an Euler equation based approach to reproduce non-linear, large Knudsen number plasma physics that can otherwise only be modeled using Boltzmann-like equation simulators such as Vlasov or particle-in-cell modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hierarchical, Grid-Aware, and Economically Optimal Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources in Realistic Distribution Systems

Renewable portfolio standards are targeting high levels of variable solar photovoltaics (PV) in electric distribution systems, which makes reliability more challenging to maintain for distribution system operators (DSOs). Distributed energy resources (DERs), including smart, connected appliances and PV inverters, represent responsive grid resources that can provide flexibility to support the DSO in actively managing their networks to facilitate reliability under extreme levels of solar PV. This flexibility can also be used to optimize system operations with respect to economic signals from wholesale energy and ancillary service markets. Here, we present a novel hierarchical scheme that actively controls behind-the-meter DERs to reliably manage each unbalanced distribution feeder and exploits the available flexibility to ensure reliable operation and economically optimizes the entire distribution network. Each layer of the scheme employs advanced optimization methods at different timescales to ensure that the system operates within both grid and device limits. The hierarchy is validated in a large-scale realistic simulation based on data from the industry. Simulation results show that coordination of flexibility improves both system reliability and economics, and enables greater penetration of solar PV. Discussion is also provided on the practical viability of the required communications and controls to implement the presented scheme within a large DSO.

distribution network↗

Adjoint-Based Design of Rotors using the Navier-Stokes Equations in a Noninertial Reference Frame

Optimization of rotorcraft flowfields using an adjoint method generally requires a time-dependent implementation of the equations. The current study examines an intermediate approach in which a subset of rotor flowfields are cast as steady problems in a noninertial reference frame. This technique permits the use of an existing steady-state adjoint formulation with minor modifications to perform sensitivity analyses. The formulation is valid for isolated rigid rotors in hover or where the freestream velocity is aligned with the axis of rotation. Discrete consistency of the implementation is demonstrated using comparisons with a complex-variable technique, and a number of single- and multi-point optimizations for the rotorcraft figure of merit function are shown for varying blade collective angles. Design trends are shown to remain consistent as the grid is refined.

Nielsen, Eric J.↗

Embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables layer-by-layer process innovation for photovoltaics

Process optimization of photovoltaic devices is a time-intensive, trial-and-error endeavor, which lacks full transparency of the underlying physics and relies on user-imposed constraints that may or may not lead to a global optimum. Herein, we demonstrate that embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables an optimization approach for gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells that identifies the root cause(s) of underperformance with layer-by-layer resolution and reveals alternative optimal process windows beyond traditional black-box optimization. Our Bayesian network approach links a key GaAs process variable (growth temperature) to material descriptors (bulk and interface properties, e.g., bulk lifetime, doping, and surface recombination) and device performance parameters (e.g., cell efficiency). For this purpose, we combine a Bayesian inference framework with a neural network surrogate device-physics model that is 100× faster than numerical solvers. With the trained surrogate model and only a small number of experimental samples, our approach reduces significantly the time-consuming intervention and characterization required by the experimentalist. As a demonstration of our method, in only five metal organic chemical vapor depositions, we identify a superior growth temperature profile for the window, bulk, and back surface field layer of a GaAs solar cell, without any secondary measurements, and demonstrate a 6.5% relative AM1.5G efficiency improvement above traditional grid search methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled control run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area-averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Niño modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwise GEFA is validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM shortwave spectrometers to study the clear-cloud transition zone and mixing processes

The proposed research is a collaborative effort between NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. While the NASA team focused on analyzing ground-based hyper-spectral radiance observations to understand cloud edge properties and their connection to mixing processes, the Hebrew University team tackled the problem through cloud modeling activities. By approximating the shortwave spectra in the cloud-clear transition zone as a linear combination of purely clear and purely cloudy spectra we can characterize the variations of cloud optical thickness and cloud droplet effective radius in the transition zone. When applying this method to the measurements of a ground-based shortwave spectroradiometer at the ARM’s SGP site, representing continental conditions, and MAGIC field campaign between Log Angeles, California and Honolulu, Hawaii, representing maritime scenarios, we found that cloud optical depth consistently decreases in both cases, but droplet size decreases much more substantially for the continental regime, suggesting different mixing processes for the continental and maritime conditions. The investigation and measurements of radiation clouds were coupled with a unique cloud modeling. A novel spectral bin microphysics was developed and implemented to the System of Atmospheric Modeling (SAM). In order to resolve cloud transition zones with high spatial gradients of microphysical variables a unique high resolution (10 m) was used in simulations. The model calculates droplet size distributions in each grid point. The model output was transferred to the NASA/GSFC team for utilization in radiative calculations and testing of both radiative algorithm and model representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF IGNITION AND PREMIXED FLAME PROPAGATION INITIATED BY A PRE-CHAMBER TURBULENT JET

Addressing the pressing need for reduced carbon emissions, Turbulent Jet Ignition (TJI) emerges as a promising technology for ultra-lean combustion, offering enhanced thermal efficiencies and minimized cyclic variability in spark-ignited engines. To facilitate rapid testing and integration of this technology, a robust computational modeling framework is crucial. This study delves into the predictive capabilities of computational models for main-chamber ignition and premixed flame propagation using a single-cycle TJI rig measured by Biswas et al. (Applied Thermal Engineering, vol 106, 2016). Employing an open-source compressible flow simulation solver with Large Eddy Simulation (LES) for turbulence modeling, the investigation integrates the conventional Laminar Finite Rate Chemistry (LFRC) model alongside the transported Probability Density Method (PDF) for turbulence-chemistry interaction. A fully-consistent Eulerian Monte-Carlo Fields (EMCF) method is utilized to approximate the transported PDF, while Interaction by Exchange with Mean is employed to close micro-mixing terms in stochastic differential equations. A reduced chemical reaction mechanism with 21 species and 84 reactions (DRM-19) is used for solving chemical kinetics, and a double Gaussian energy deposition model is used to approximate the spark ignition in the pre-chamber. An unstructured O-grid mesh with 0.3 million cells in the prechamber and 1 million cells in the main chamber is employed. Results are divided into two phases: pre-chamber initialization and full TJI simulations. Validation of the predicted pre-chamber flame propagation and the lean ignition in the main-chamber is carried out by using available experimental data. Under quiescent conditions, both the LFRC and transported PDF methods largely underestimate the flame speed and subsequent pressure growth in the pre-chamber. A linear momentum forcing technique is applied to investigate the impact of initial turbulence in the pre-chamber, demonstrating a notable influence on flame propagation. Fine-tuning of the forcing coefficient reproduces the sudden pressure growth observed in the experiment. The experimentally validated pre-chamber simulation serves as the initial condition for the full TJI simulations. It is found that the LFRC model fails to predict lean-ignition in the main-chamber, resulting in a misfiring event. Incorporation of turbulence-chemistry interaction using the transported PDF method substantially improves the prediction of the ignition event in the main-chamber, achieving fair qualitative agreement and quantitative validation of combustion parameters within ±10% of the reported experimental data. The rich simulation results consisting of a full set of statistical description of the thermo-chemical states enable us to gain deep insights into the ignition mechanisms in the main chamber, which is limited when done experimentally. A novel dual ignition phenomenon is revealed in the TJI rig for the first time. Initially, a primary ignition kernel is formed at a downstream location which eventually detaches from the main jet. As the jet momentum decreases, a secondary ignition event follows, this time at a more upstream location which eventually combines with the primary ignition kernel to form a single connected flame front. Investigation of these ignition sequences in chemical composition space reveal distinct differences between the two. The primary ignition event in the main-chamber is followed by a large concentration of active radicals from the pre-chamber jet, accelerating the chain-branching steps, characterizing what has been referred to as flame ignition. In contrast, the secondary ignition occurs in the absence of active radicals in the pre-chamber jet, hence characterized as jet ignition. Further analysis of the effect of pre-chamber jet characteristics on lean ignition in the main-chamber is conducted by setting up cases with different initial pressure ratios (por) between the two chambers, a non-dimensional parameter, ranging from 1.2 to 3.2. As the initial pressure ratio increases, jet momentum increases, with dual ignition observed in cases above por= 2.2. Case with por= 3.2 lead to misfiring. The effect of ignition sequence on global combustion characteristics of TJI is analyzed. Dual ignition events lead to non-monotonicity in combustion characteristics such as global reaction progress variable, flame penetration, and global heat release rate. In dual ignition events, although the rate of fuel consumption and global heat release rate is initially lower, the secondary ignition leads to a sudden increase in flame surface area, resulting in a sudden jump and promoting the overall performance of the TJI system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

20-mN Variable Specific Impulse (Isp) Colloid Thruster

Busek Company, Inc., has designed and manufactured an electrospray emitter capable of generating 20 mN in a compact package (7x7x1.7 in). The thruster consists of nine porous-surface emitters operating in parallel from a common propellant supply. Each emitter is capable of supporting over 70,000 electrospray emission sites with the plume from each emitter being accelerated through a single aperture, eliminating the need for individual emission site alignment to an extraction grid. The total number of emission sites during operation is expected to approach 700,000. This Phase II project optimized and characterized the thruster fabricated during the Phase I effort. Additional porous emitters also were fabricated for full-scale testing. Propellant is supplied to the thruster via existing feed-system and microvalve technology previously developed by Busek, under the NASA Space Technology 7's Disturbance Reduction System (ST7-DRS) mission and via follow-on electric propulsion programs. This project investigated methods for extending thruster life beyond the previously demonstrated 450 hours. The life-extending capabilities will be demonstrated on a subscale version of the thruster.

Demmons, Nathaniel↗

Coordinated Control of Wind Turbine and Energy Storage System for Reducing Wind Power Fluctuation

This paper proposes a coordinated control of wind turbine and energy storage system (ESS). Because wind power (WP) is highly dependent on variable wind speed and could induce a severe stability problem to power system especially when the WP has high penetration level. To solve this problem, many power generation corporations or grid operators recently use the ESS. It has very quick response and good performance for reducing the impact of WP fluctuation but has high cost for its installation. Therefore, it is very important to design the control algorithm considering both ESS capacity and grid reliability. Thus, we propose the control algorithm to mitigate the WP fluctuation by using the coordinated control between wind turbine and ESS considering ESS state of charge (SoC) and the WP fluctuation. From deloaded control according to WP fluctuation and ESS SoC management, we can expect the ESS lifespan expansion and improved grid reliability. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated in MATLAB/Simulink considering power system including both wind turbine generator and conventional generators which react to system frequency deviation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗

Land Surface Temperature Measurements from EOS MODIS Data

This report summarizes the accomplishments made by the MODIS LST (Land-Surface Temperature) group at University of California, Santa Barbara, under NASA Contract. Version 1 of the MODIS Land-Surface Temperature Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD) was reviewed in June 1994, version 2 reviewed in November 1994, version 3.1 in August 1996, and version 3.3 updated in April 1999. Based on the ATBD, two LST algorithms were developed, one is the generalized split-window algorithm and another is the physics-based day/night LST algorithm. These two LST algorithms were implemented into the production generation executive code (PGE 16) for the daily standard MODIS LST products at level-2 (MODII-L2) and level-3 (MODIIA1 at 1 km resolution and MODIIB1 at 5km resolution). PGE codes for 8-day 1 km LST product (MODIIA2) and the daily, 8-day and monthly LST products at 0.05 degree latitude/longitude climate model grids (CMG) were also delivered. Four to six field campaigns were conducted each year since 2000 to validate the daily LST products generated by PGE16 and the calibration accuracies of the MODIS TIR bands used for the LST/emissivity retrieval from versions 2-4 of Terra MODIS data and versions 3-4 of Aqua MODIS data. Validation results from temperature-based and radiance-based methods indicate that the MODIS LST accuracy is better than 1 C in most clear-sky cases in the range from -10 to 58 C. One of the major lessons learn from multi- year temporal analysis of the consistent V4 daily Terra MODIS LST products in 2000-2003 over some selected target areas including lakes, snow/ice fields, and semi-arid sites is that there are variable numbers of cloud-contaminated LSTs in the MODIS LST products depending on surface elevation, land cover types, and atmospheric conditions. A cloud-screen scheme with constraints on spatial and temporal variations in LSTs was developed to remove cloud-contaminated LSTs. The 5km LST product was indirectly validated through comparisons to the 1 km LST product. Twenty three papers related to the LST research work were published in journals over the last decade.

Wan, Zheng-Ming↗

A scalable geometric multigrid solver for nonsymmetric elliptic systems with application to variable-density flows

A geometric multigrid algorithm is introduced for solving nonsymmetric linear systems resulting from the discretization of the variable density Navier–Stokes equations on nonuniform structured rectilinear grids and high-Reynolds number flows. The restriction operation is defined such that the resulting system on the coarser grids is symmetric, thereby allowing for the use of efficient smoother algorithms. To achieve an optimal rate of convergence, the sequence of interpolation and restriction operations are determined through a dynamic procedure. A parallel partitioning strategy is introduced to minimize communication while maintaining the load balance between all processors. To test the proposed algorithm, we consider two cases: 1) homogeneous isotropic turbulence discretized on uniform grids and 2) turbulent duct flow discretized on stretched grids. Testing the algorithm on systems with up to a billion unknowns shows that the cost varies linearly with the number of unknowns. This O (N) behavior confirms the robustness of the proposed multigrid method regarding ill-conditioning of large systems characteristic of multiscale high-Reynolds number turbulent flows. The robustness of our method to density variations is established by considering cases where density varies sharply in space by a factor of up to 104, showing its applicability to two-phase flow problems. Strong and weak scalability studies are carried out, employing up to 30,000 processors, to examine the parallel performance of our implementation. Excellent scalability of our solver is shown for a granularity as low as 104 to 105 unknowns per processor. At its tested peak throughput, it solves approximately 4 billion unknowns per second employing over 16,000 processors with a parallel efficiency higher than 50%.

Computer Science↗