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At least 595 records · Page 33

Molecular Hypernetworks for Exploration of Multi-Dimensional Metabolomics Data (Chyper)

Orthogonal separations of data from high-resolution mass spectrometry can provide insight into sample composition and help address the challenge of complete annotation of molecules in untargeted metabolomics. “Molecular networks” (MNs), as used, for example, in the Global Natural Products Social Molecular Networking platform, are an increasingly popular computational strategy for exploring and visualizing molecular relationships and improving annotation. MNs use graph representations to show the relationships between measured multidimensional data features. MNs also show promise for using network science algorithms to automatically identify targets for annotation candidates and to dereplicate features associated to a single molecular identity. However, more advanced methods may better represent the complexity present in samples. Our work aims to increase confidence in annotation propagation by extending molecular network methods to include “molecular hypernetworks” (MHNs), able to natively represent multiway relationships among observations supporting both human and analytical processing. In this paper we first introduce MHNs illustrated with simple examples, and demonstrate how to build them from liquid chromatography- and ion mobility spectrometry- separated MS data. We then describe a method to construct MHNs directly from existing MNs as their “clique reconstructions”, demonstrating their utility by comparing examples of previously published graph-based MNs to their respective MHNs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Automated defect detection in spent nuclear fuel using combine Cerenkov and Gamma Emission Tomography data

Spent fuel monitoring and characterization has been a pillar of safeguards and nuclear facility monitoring for many years. The Digital Cerenkov Viewing Device (DCVD) has been used since the 1980s as a method of defect detection in spent fuel. In recent years, the accounting of large quantities of spent fuel before storage has renewed interest in this relatively quick and inexpensive method. This has an impact not only in safeguards, but also in for nuclear power facilities, as accounting can be a long and arduous process. Additionally, the DCVD demonstrates limited accuracy in more complex cases such as substitution of a fuel rod with steel, or a partial defect detection. A second method, Gamma Emission Tomography (GET) has been explored as an improved defect detection method, but is much more expensive and invasive than DCVD. This work identifies deficiencies in both methods, and proposes a combination of data gathered from each method to address these deficiencies for improved spent fuel characterization. Initial results are promising, showing 97% detection of a single missing fuel rod when the data types are combined, versus approximately 50% and 70%respectively for DCVD and GET data on their own. Finally, these classification results are obtained with algorithms derived from facial recognition and applied to this problem, yielding unique accuracy in near real-time while also maintaining the information barrier between output and measurement desired in safeguards.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Correlated Synthetic Time Series Generation using Fourier and ARMA

As the contribution of renewable energy grows in electricity markets, the complexity nuclear’s place within the energy mix increases, and likewise the need for robust simulation techniques. While decades of wind, solar, and demand pro- files can sometimes be obtained, this is too few samples to provide a statistically meaningful analysis of a system with baseload, peaker, and renewable generation. Synthetic time series generation presents itself as a suitable methodology to meet this need. One approach for synthetic series generation is training a model using Fourier series decomposition for seasonal patterns and Auto-Regressive Moving Average models (ARMA) to describe time-correlated statistical noise about the seasonal patterns. When combined, the Fourier plus ARMA (FARMA) model has been shown to provide an infinite set of independent, identically-distributed sample time series with the same statistical properties as the original data [1]. When considering an energy mix with renewable electricity production, several time series of energy, grid, and weather measurements are needed for each synthetic year modeled to statistically comprehend the efficiency of any given energy mix. These cannot be considered independent series in a given synthetic year. To capture and reproduce the correlations that might exist in the measured histories, the ARMA can further be extended as a Vector ARMA (VARMA). In the VARMA algorithm, covariance in statistical noise is captured both within a history as part of the autoregressive moving average, and with respect to the other variables in the time series. In this work the implementation of the Fourier VARMA in the RAVEN uncertainty quantification and risk analysis software framework [2] is presented, along with examples of correlated synthetic history generation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Need for advanced research reactors for the next-generation reactor physics, analysis tools, and technology

Full text of publication follows. There is an urgent need for design and deployment of advanced research and test reactors in support of design, licensing and operation of advanced power reactors and education of next generation nuclear workforce. Existing research reactors mostly were designed and constructed decades ago with the main objectives of training operators, performing reactor physics experiments, and educating nuclear engineers and scientists. There are already gaps and significant concern about future capabilities for the existing research reactor facilities to address modern instrumentation and/or flexible environments for: performing reactor physics studies for advanced designs which have significantly different core materials forms and compositions, reactor shapes and size; validation of advanced high-fidelity software; development of machine learning algorithms for enhancement of human-machine collaboration in support of reactor monitoring, operation and safeguards; and, effective education of the next-generation workforce. The authors will focus on the need for advanced research reactors to improve and validate fast and accurate simulation tools for high-fidelity modeling and analysis of nuclear reactors in support of their design, optimization, licensing, operation, and monitoring. In the past, simulation tools were limited to relatively coarse models using approximate methodologies that benefited from two main factors: i) allowance for large margins and tolerances; ii) ability to construct prototype (e.g., zero power) reactors for adjustment of approximate methodologies. The next generation reactors have to be designed mainly by using novel high-fidelity computational tools that are accurate and fast, and therefore can be used for parametric studies and uncertainty quantification. To sufficiently demonstrate the accuracy of these tools, advanced research reactors are needed. The authors argue the need for new computational paradigms such as the MRT (Multistage, Response- function Transport) methodology which has resulted in the development of the novel high-fidelity RAPID (Real-time Analysis for Particle-transport and In-situ Detection) code system. Such code systems have to be robust in modeling any complex system, and should be fast and accurate, henceforth their uncertainties can be quantified at reasonable costs. Again, advanced research reactors are needed for the validation of the fidelity and accuracy of new computational tools. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Nonnegative tensor factorization for contaminant source identification

Unsupervised Machine Learning (ML) is becoming increasingly popular for solving various types of data analytics problems including feature extraction, blind source separation, exploratory analyses, model diagnostics, etc. In this work, we have developed a new unsupervised ML method based on Nonnegative Tensor Factorization (NTF) for identification of the original groundwater types (including contaminant sources) present in geochemical mixtures observed in an aquifer. Frequently, groundwater types with different geochemical signatures are related to different background and/or contamination sources. The characterization of groundwater mixing processes is a challenging but very important task critical for any environmental management project aiming to characterize the fate and transport of contaminants in the subsurface and perform contaminant remediation. This task typically requires solving complex inverse models representing groundwater flow and geochemical transport in the aquifer, where the inverse analysis accounts for available site data. Usually, the model is calibrated against the available data characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of the observed geochemical types. Numerous different geochemical constituents and processes may need to be simulated in these models which further complicates the analyses. Additionally, the application of inverse methods may introduce biases in the analyses through the assumptions made in the model development process. Here, we substitute the model inversion with unsupervised ML analysis. The ML analysis does not make any assumptions about underlying physical and geochemical processes occurring in the aquifer. Our ML methodology, called NTFk, is capable of identifying (1) the unknown number of groundwater types (contaminant sources) present in the aquifer, (2) the original geochemical concentrations (signatures) of these groundwater types and (3) spatial and temporal dynamics in the mixing of these groundwater types. These results are obtained only from the measured geochemical data without any additional site information. In general, the NTFk methodology allows for interpretation of large high-dimensional datasets representing diverse spatial and temporal components such as state variables and velocities. NTFk has been tested on synthetic and real-world site three-dimensional datasets. Finally, the NTFk algorithm is designed to work with geochemical data represented in the form of concentrations, ratios (of two constituents; for example, isotope ratios), and delta notations (standard normalized stable isotope ratios).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Benefits of Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Analyzing Heterogeneous Environmental Datasets: A Case Study of Marine Organic Carbon Fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a commercial automatic treatment planning system for prostate cancers

Recent developments in Radiation Oncology treatment planning have led to the development of software packages that facilitate automated intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) planning. Such solutions include site-specific modules, plan library methods, and algorithm-based methods. In this study, the plan quality for prostate cancer generated by the Auto-Planning module of the Pinnacle{sup 3} radiation therapy treatment planning system (v9.10, Fitchburg, WI) is retrospectively evaluated. The Auto-Planning module of Pinnacle{sup 3} uses a progressive optimization algorithm. Twenty-three prostate cancer cases, which had previously been planned and treated without lymph node irradiation, were replanned using the Auto-Planning module. Dose distributions were statistically compared with those of manual planning by the paired t-test at 5% significance level. Auto-Planning was performed without any manual intervention. Planning target volume (PTV) dose and dose to rectum were comparable between Auto-Planning and manual planning. The former, however, significantly reduced the dose to the bladder and femurs. Regression analysis was performed to examine the correlation between volume overlap between bladder and PTV divided by the total bladder volume and resultant V70. The findings showed that manual planning typically exhibits a logistic way for dose constraint, whereas Auto-Planning shows a more linear tendency. By calculating the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to validate the statistical model, a reduction of interoperator variation in Auto-Planning was shown. We showed that, for prostate cancer, the Auto-Planning module provided plans that are better than or comparable with those of manual planning. By comparing our results with those previously reported for head and neck cancer treatment, we recommend the homogeneous plan quality generated by the Auto-Planning module, which exhibits less dependence on anatomic complexity.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Machine-Learning-Based Predictive Modeling of Glass Transition Temperatures: A Case of Polyhydroxyalkanoate Homopolymers and Copolymers

Polyhydroxyalkanoate-based polymers—being ecofriendly, biosynthesizable, and economically viable and possessing a broad range of tunable properties—are currently being actively pursued as promising alternatives for petroleum-based plastics. The vast chemical complexity accessible within this class of polymers gives rise to challenges in the rational discovery of novel polymer chemistries for specific applications. Here, the burgeoning field of polymer informatics addresses this challenge via providing tools and strategies for accelerated property prediction and materials design via surrogate machine-learning models built on reliable past data. In this contribution, we use glass transition temperature T g as an example target property to demonstrate promise of the data-enabled route to accelerated learning of accurate structure–property mappings in PHA-based polymers. Our analysis uses a data set of experimentally measured T g values, polymer molecular weights, and a polydispersity index for PHA-based homo- and copolymers that was carefully assembled from the literature. A fingerprinting scheme that captures key properties based on topology, shape, and charge/polarity of specific chemical units or motifs forming the polymer backbone was devised to numerically represent the polymers. A validated statistical learning model is then developed to allow for a mapping of the polymer fingerprints onto the property space in a physically meaningful and reliable manner. Once developed, the model can not only rapidly predict the property of new PHA polymers but also provide uncertainties underlying the predictions. The model is further combined with an evolutionary-algorithm-based search strategy to efficiently identify multicomponent polymer compositions with a prespecified T g . While the present contribution is focused specifically on T g , the surrogate model development approach put forward here is general and can, in principle, be extended to a range of other properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

General Multifidelity Surrogate Models: Framework and Active-Learning Strategies for Efficient Rare Event Simulation

Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. Here, this paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Efficient computation of N -point correlation functions in D dimensions

We present efficient algorithms for computing the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of random fields in arbitrary D-dimensional homogeneous and isotropic spaces. Such statistics appear throughout the physical sciences and provide a natural tool to describe stochastic processes. Typically, algorithms for computing the NPCF components have $\mathscr O$(n N ) complexity (for a dataset containing n particles); their application is thus computationally infeasible unless N is small. By projecting the statistic onto a suitably defined angular basis, we show that the estimators can be written in a separable form, with complexity $\mathscr O$(n 2 ) or $\mathscr O$(n g log n g ) if evaluated using a Fast Fourier Transform on a grid of size n g . Our decomposition is built upon the D-dimensional hyperspherical harmonics; these form a complete basis on the (D – 1) sphere and are intrinsically related to angular momentum operators. Concatenation of (N – 1) such harmonics gives states of definite combined angular momentum, forming a natural separable basis for the NPCF. As N and D grow, the number of basis components quickly becomes large, providing a practical limitation to this (and all other) approaches: However, the dimensionality is greatly reduced in the presence of symmetries; for example, isotropic correlation functions require only states of zero combined angular momentum. We provide a Julia package implementing our estimators and show how they can be applied to a variety of scenarios within cosmology and fluid dynamics. The efficiency of such estimators will allow higher-order correlators to become a standard tool in the analysis of random fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mechanistic and Kinetic Analysis of Complete Methane Oxidation on a Practical PtPd/Al 2 O 3 Catalyst

A PtPd/Al 2 O 3 catalyst developed for the complete oxidation of methane from the ventilation air of underground coal mines is compared against a model PdO/Al 2 O 3 catalyst. Although the PtPd/Al 2 O 3 catalyst is substantially more active and stable than the model catalyst, the nature of active sites between the two catalysts is deemed to be fundamentally the same based on their response to different feed gas compositions and the evolution of surface CO adsorption complexes during time-resolved CO adsorption DRIFTS experiment. For both catalysts, coordinatively unsaturated Pd sites are considered the active centers for methane activation and the subsequent oxidation reaction. H 2 O competes with CH 4 for the same active sites, resulting in severe inhibition. Additionally, the CH 4 oxidation reaction also causes self-inhibition. Taking both inhibition effects into consideration, a relatively simple kinetic model is developed. The model provides a good fit of the 72 sets of kinetic data collected on the PtPd/Al 2 O 3 catalyst under practically relevant reaction conditions with CH 4 concentration in the range of 0.05–0.4%, H 2 O concentration of 1.0–5.0%, and reaction temperatures of 450–700 °C. Kinetic parameters based on the model suggest that the CH 4 activation energy on the PtPd/Al 2 O 3 catalyst is 96.7 kJ/mol, and the H 2 O adsorption energy is –31.0 kJ/mol. Both values are consistent with the parameters reported in the literature. The model can be used to develop catalyst sizing guidelines and be incorporated into the control algorithm of the catalytic system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Final Technical Report - Rapid Surface Microanalysis using a Low Temperature Plasma

This project focused on improving our current understanding and scientific knowledge in the area of plasma-surface interactions and plasma assisted material synthesis related to advanced microelectronics and nanotechnology. Current challenges include: controlling the interaction of Low Temperature Plasma (LTP) with a single layer of atoms to manufacture integrated circuits, continued miniaturization of integrated circuits, LTP processing of material surfaces and thin films to enable industrial scale fabrication of advanced microelectronics, synthesis of new materials, nanomaterials, nanotubes, and complex materials, Technology developed in this subtopic is of value to either (i) enable scans of surfaces (~1 sq. cm area) using various microscopies (electron, optical, other) at high resolution (micron or sub-micron resolution) rapidly (hours or days rather than years to complete a high-resolution scan of such a large surface area), or (ii) enable scans of surfaces (~1 sq. cm area) using various microscopies (electron, optical, other) at relatively low resolution rapidly, then apply algorithms to select spots for micron-scale imaging. Sputtering occurs when particles of a solid material are ejected from its surface by energetic particles from a plasma. While the degradation of the solid material and the subsequent deposition of the ejected material onto vulnerable surfaces are the usual subjects of sputtering studies, plasma science has yet to be combined with sputtering to create new diagnostics devices and systems. Small changes in the design of the plasma discharge device make it possible to create broad plasma beams for rapid scanning or small plasma beams to obtain the distribution of ejected elements with micron resolution. In the high-resolution use, the ion flux is extracted from the gas-discharge plasma and focused by a spherical emission surface to micron sizes onto the target specimen, providing very local sputtering and local elemental analysis. We call this “self-focusing”. The radiation from the excited and ionized sputtered atoms is recorded by a spectrometer through a window and fiberglass cable and analyzed with standard software packages used for optical glow discharge spectroscopy. Computer simulations of beam formation were used to verify and optimize the designs to be tested. A prototype was designed, constructed, and used to start experiments of beam formation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Artificial Intelligence Application to D and D - 20492

As aging facilities across the DOE complex await decommissioning, there is an ongoing need to understand any changes in the structural conditions. Many of these facilities were built over 50 years ago and, in some cases, these facilities have gone beyond the expected operational lifetime. Many facilities have been placed in a state of 'cold and dark,' sitting unused and awaiting decommissioning. Especially challenging are the aging facilities that provide unique operational/production capabilities to support critical DOE missions and cannot be shut down. In any of these scenarios, the structural integrity of these facilities may become compromised as time passes. It is critical that adequate inspections be performed on a continual basis and that the data collected undergoes sufficient analysis to support timely identification of any new or worsening structural issues as well as prompt needed maintenance and repairs to maintain the facilities in a safe condition. In recent days, Artificial Intelligence (AI) [1] and its application to various domains are growing at fast speed. FIU is performing research in this area and exploring the associated technologies to solve nuclear decommissioning problems. Artificial intelligence refers to the capability of a program to autonomously act, react and adapt to the working environment. AI enables the machine to behave like humans and perform the cognitive functions such as 'learning' and 'problem solving'. AI systems gradually moving from traditional approaches (algorithms and expert systems) towards more efficient and advanced technologies (machine learning [1] and deep learning [2] [3]). AI is the study of algorithms and statistical models that is being used by computers to perform specific tasks without using explicit instructions. FIU is working to develop a pilot-scale infrastructure to implement structural health monitoring using AI technologies with focus on machine learning, deep learning. This research is focused on Computer Vision/Image Classification area of AI applications. This can also be expanded to other areas of AI related to Object Recognition and Character Recognition in images. In addition to utilizing existing data sets, FIU will collect and investigate image and video data using FIU test-bed mockups to monitor structural health of the facility. Resulting data will be processed and analyzed using machine learning/deep learning technologies. The proposed pilot system is intended to serve as a starting point to engage the DOE field sites on related data sets and their decision making needs. It is anticipated that proposed machine learning/deep learning technologies can be effectively employed using anomaly detection to solve EM challenges in surveillance and maintenance of the D and D facilities. FIU will work with research stakeholders to identify applications at various sites and other DOE facilities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Application of predictive data analytics to model daily hydrocarbon production using petrophysical, geomechanical, fiber-optic, completions, and surface data: A case study from the Marcellus Shale, North America

Predicting gas production from stimulated unconventional reservoirs has always been a challenge to oil and gas companies because the physics of fluid flow through such reservoirs is not well understood. On the other hand, modeling gas production from shale reservoirs is a complex multi-variate problem that requires proper integration of data from multiple disciplines, such as geology, petrophysics, geomechanics, completions, and surface-based measurements, etc. Here this study demonstrates the application of data-driven machine learning algorithms, integrating geoscientific, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), distributed temperature sensing (DTS) fiber-optic, completions, flow scanner production log, and surface data to model daily gas production from a 28-stage stimulated horizontal well drilled in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian basin in North America. In addition, this study aims to utilize the data from a fiber-optic monitoring system, such as DAS and DTS to evaluate the well performance. We build supervised data-driven machine learning models using Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms to understand the well performance and forecast the daily gas production. The study compares the forecasted results, tests the level of accuracy, and addresses different issues with these machine learning algorithms. A spatio-temporal database is constructed and used to perform sensitivity analyses to identify the key drivers for gas production. The results show that RF and ANN algorithms can be used to predict daily gas production with significantly high accuracy; however, RF algorithm is the best predictor in terms of highest accuracy (96%), less computational time and cost. Based on sensitivity analysis, it appears that Poisson's ratio, minimum horizontal stress, DAS, casing pressure, gamma log are the most important parameters to predict gas production.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Implementation of a feature selection algorithm in FARM to identify important state variables and time-invariant matrices

The FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) software module is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework for analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM aids the HERON software module in the evaluation of the optimal dispatch for the different IES components. Set-point trajectories are required to meet limits on both production variables (i.e., the variables to be optimized such as the electrical power, the hydrogen production rate, etc.) and process variables tied to the service life of equipment (e.g., steam flowrate, vessel pressure, turbine firing temperature, etc.). To evaluate the feasibility of HERON generated set-points and to do so in an acceptable time, FARM employs reduced order models to represent the dynamic behavior of the systems to be dispatched. These surrogate models take the form of a linear dynamic system with sets of Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) matrices that are mapped to the system operating space. These matrices are derived from the trajectories of system state variables and system output variables during transients. The accuracy of LPV matrices depends on the selection of state variables. In previous reports, state variables were selected by adopting a complicated workflow requiring multiple software licenses and an advanced level of user expertise. In this report, a new workflow that automates the state variable selection process is presented. It significantly reduces the frequency of user interventions and does not require multiple software licenses. Each module in the new workflow is described in detail, and the input / output examples in each step of the workflow are provided. It was demonstrated that this workflow can greatly reduce the complexity of the state variable selection process, and that the updated FARM-Gamma and FARM-Delta validators can benefit from this workflow when solving the power dispatch problem of a representative IES test case. Finally, some code improvements that can further enhance the efficiency are suggested.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Scalable Pipeline for Gigapixel Whole Slide Imaging Analysis on Leadership Class HPC Systems

Whole Slide Imaging (WSI) captures microscopic details of a patient's histopathological features at multiple res-olutions organized across different levels. Images produced by WSI are gigapixel-sized, and saving a single image in memory requires a few gigabytes which is scarce since a complicated model occupies tens of gigabytes. Performing a simple met-ric operation on these large images is also expensive. High-performance computing (HPC) can help us quickly analyze such large images using distributed training of complex deep learning models. One popular approach in analyzing these images is to divide a WSI image into smaller tiles (patches) and then train a simpler model with these reduced-sized but large numbers of patches. However, we need to solve three pre-processing challenges efficiently for pursuing this patch-based approach. 1) Creating small patches from a high-resolution image can result in a high number (hundreds of thousands per image) of patches. Storing and processing these images can be challenging due to a large number of I/O and arithmetic operations. To reduce I/Oand memory accesses, an optimal balance between the size and number of patches must exist to reduce I/O and memory accesses. 2) WSI images may have tiny annotated regions for cancer tissue and a significant portion with normal and fatty tissues; correct patch sampling should avoid dataset imbalance. 3) storing and retrieving many patches to and from disk storage might incur I/O latency while training a deep learning model. An efficient distributed data loader should reduce I/O latency during the training and inference steps. This paper explores these three challenges and provides empirical and algorithmic solutions deployed on the Summit supercomputer hosted at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility.

Dash, Sajal↗

GOOML - Finding Optimization Opportunities for Geothermal Operations: Preprint

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) is a transferable and extensible component-based geothermal asset modeling framework that considers complex steamfield relationships and identifies optimization prospects using a data-driven approach. We have used this framework to develop digital twins that provide steamfield operators with an operational environment to analyze and understand historical and forecasted power production, explore new steamfield configuration possibilities, and seek optimal asset management for real world applications. The GOOML modeling software is built on a generic component-based systems framework that allows for both historical and forecast analysis. A GOOML model can perform historical data-assimilation using first-principal thermodynamics to create a meaningful data model. Historical production data can then be coupled with a forecast framework to train machine-learning models of steamfield components to predict future outputs. This modeling environment enables digital exploration of steamfield design configurations and operational scenarios. GOOML digital twins have been developed for steamfields in New Zealand and the United States representing differing power generation and field conditions. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Reinforcement learning experiments were conducted to demonstrate the ability to programmatically explore the operations space using machine learning agents. Our initial results are compelling; two to five percent increases in annual energy production were demonstrated by the GOOML models with no additional infrastructure build required. GOOML offers a new approach to geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and interaction with digital twins. Through application of these tools, operators will realize greater availability and higher net generation which will increase the cost effectiveness of geothermal energy projects.

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