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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The utility of Bayesian data reconciliation for separations

Data reconciliation methods for separation processes typically rely on classical statistical approaches to generate estimates of true mass flow rates from measurements. Knowledge regarding the uncertainty of these estimates has value in decision making, but is often not acquired. Bayesian approaches intrinsically quantify uncertainty; however, literature for Bayesian data reconciliation of separation processes is scarce. This publication outlines two Bayesian data reconciliation models and provides details for how the models were implemented for the BayesMassBal (V 1.0.0) software package written in R. To demonstrate the advantages of this approach for data reconciliation, the models were first applied to simulated data and then compared to a classical model through a Monte Carlo experiment. In this example, the Bayesian models were found to provide more accurate estimates of the simulated data, while also providing quantitative information on the estimate uncertainty. To demonstrate the use of the technique in a practical problem, the models were also applied to real data collected from a pilot-scale rare earth solvent extraction process. Here, this publication provides a small window into how Bayesian methods can be used for data reconciliation, but findings suggest Bayesian data reconciliation models for separation processes have distinct advantages over classical alternatives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario

In recent years, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have developed methodologies to assess the vulnerabilities of nuclear plants against site specific extreme hazards. In many cases, advanced simulation tools are being considered to simulate multi-physics, multi-scale phenomena and to evaluate vulnerability of nuclear facilities. The credibility of advanced simulation tools is assessed based on a formal verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification procedure. One of the key limitations in validation is the lack of relevant experimental data at system-level. This limitation leads to a decrease in the confidence of system-level risk predictions. Therefore, a robust validation framework is needed to formalize the confidence in predictive capability of advanced simulation results. Additionally, this study enhances the existing risk informed validation methodology, originally proposed by Kwag et al. [1] and Bodda et al. [2], by developing additional attributes and a new set of validation indicies for a complete and wider applicability of the framework. In this manuscript, the methodology to identify the critical path that leads to the system-level failure is illustrated. The overall validation is checked for completeness and consistency by comparing the critical path for both the system-level simulation and experimental models. The applicability of the code for an intended application is represented in terms of various maturity levels and helps in the process of decision making.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

A copula-based Bayesian method for probabilistic solar power forecasting

With increased penetration of solar energy sources, solar power forecasting has become more crucial and challenging. This paper proposes a copula-based Bayesian approach to improve probabilistic solar power forecasting by capturing the joint distribution between solar power and ambient temperature. A prior forecast distribution is first obtained using different underlying point forecasting models. Parametric and empirical copulas of solar power and temperature are then developed to update the prior distribution to the posterior forecast distribution. A public solar power database is used to demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed method. Numerical results show that the copula-based Bayesian method outperforms the forecasting method that directly uses temperature as a feature. The Bayesian method is also compared with persistent models and show improved performance. Furthermore, this article includes supplementary material (data and code) for reproducibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetostriction of α-RuCl 3 Flakes in the Zigzag Phase

Motivated by the possibility of enhanced magnetic fluctuations in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 flakes, we study magneto-Raman spectra of exfoliated multilayer α-RuCl 3 in out-of-plane magnetic fields of -6 to 6 T at temperatures of 670 mK to 4 K. While the literature currently suggests that bulk α-RuCl 3 is in an antiferromagnetic zigzag phase with R$\bar3$ symmetry at low temperatures, we do not observe R$\bar3$ symmetry in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 at low temperatures. While we saw no magnetic field-driven transitions, the Raman modes exhibit unexpected stochastic shifts in response to the applied magnetic field that are above the uncertainties inferred from Bayesian analysis. Finally, these stochastic shifts are consistent with the emergence of magnetostrictive interactions in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Poroelastic Aquifer Characterization From InSAR Surface Deformation Data. Part I: Maximum A Posteriori Estimate

Characterizing the properties of groundwater aquifers is essential for predicting aquifer response and managing groundwater resources. In this work, we develop a high-dimensional scalable Bayesian inversion framework governed by a three-dimensional quasi-static linear poroelastic model to characterize lateral permeability variations in groundwater aquifers. In this work, we determine the maximum a posteriori (MAP) point of the posterior permeability distribution from centimeter-level surface deformation measurements obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The scalability of our method to high parameter dimension is achieved through the use of adjoint-based derivatives, inexact Newton methods to determine the MAP point, and a Mat´ern class sparse prior precision operator. Together, these guarantee that the MAP point is found at a cost, measured in number of forward/adjoint poroelasticity solves, that is independent of the parameter dimension. We apply our methodology to a test case for a municipal well in Mesquite, Nevada, in which InSAR and GPS surface deformation data are available. We solve problems with up to 320,824 state variable degrees of freedom (DOFs) and 16,896 parameter DOFs. A consistent treatment of noise level is employed so that the aquifer characterization result does not depend on the pixel spacing of surface deformation data. Our results show that the use of InSAR data significantly improves characterization of lateral aquifer heterogeneity, and the InSAR-based aquifer characterization recovers complex lateral displacement trends observed by independent daily GPS measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE)

A neural network (NN) surrogate of the NASA GISS ModelE atmosphere (version E3) is trained on a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) spanning 45 physics parameters and 36 outputs. The NN is leveraged in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian parameter inference framework to generate a second posterior constrained ensemble coined a “calibrated physics ensemble,” or CPE. The CPE members are characterized by diverse parameter combinations and are, by definition, close to top-of-atmosphere radiative balance, and must broadly agree with numerous hydrologic, energy cycle and radiative forcing metrics simultaneously. Global observations of numerous cloud, environment, and radiation properties (provided by global satellite products) are crucial for CPE generation. The inference framework explicitly accounts for discrepancies (or biases) in satellite products during CPE generation. We demonstrate that product discrepancies strongly impact calibration of important model parameter settings (e.g., convective plume entrainment rates; fall speed for cloud ice). Structural improvements new to E3 are retained across CPE members (e.g., stratocumulus simulation). Notably, the framework improved the simulation of shallow cumulus and Amazon rainfall while not degrading radiation fields, an upgrade that neither default parameters nor Latin Hypercube parameter searching achieved. Analyses of the initial PPE suggested several parameters were unimportant for output variation. However, many “unimportant” parameters were needed for CPE generation, a result that brings to the forefront how parameter importance should be determined in PPEs. From the CPE, two diverse 45-dimensional parameter configurations are retained to generate radiatively-balanced, auto-tuned atmospheres that were used in two E3 submissions to CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning Automated Recommendation Tool for synthetic biology

Abstract Synthetic biology allows us to bioengineer cells to synthesize novel valuable molecules such as renewable biofuels or anticancer drugs. However, traditional synthetic biology approaches involve ad-hoc engineering practices, which lead to long development times. Here, we present the Automated Recommendation Tool (ART), a tool that leverages machine learning and probabilistic modeling techniques to guide synthetic biology in a systematic fashion, without the need for a full mechanistic understanding of the biological system. Using sampling-based optimization, ART provides a set of recommended strains to be built in the next engineering cycle, alongside probabilistic predictions of their production levels. We demonstrate the capabilities of ART on simulated data sets, as well as experimental data from real metabolic engineering projects producing renewable biofuels, hoppy flavored beer without hops, fatty acids, and tryptophan. Finally, we discuss the limitations of this approach, and the practical consequences of the underlying assumptions failing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling 1D xRAGE simulations with machine learning for graded inner shell design optimization in double shell capsules

Advances in machine learning provide the ability to leverage data from expensive simulations of high-energy-density experiments to significantly cut down on computational time and costs associated with the search for optimal target designs. This study presents an application of cutting-edge Bayesian optimization methods to the one-dimensional (1D) design optimization of double shell graded layer targets for inertial confinement fusion experiments. This investigation attempts to reduce hydrodynamic instabilities while retaining high yields for future NIF experiments. Machine learning methods can use predictive physics simulations to identify graded layer designs from within the vast design space that demonstrate high predicted performance, including novel designs with high uncertainty in performance that may hold unexpected promise. By applying machine learning tools to the simulation design, we map the trade-off between 1D yield and instability, specifically isolating parameter ranges, which maintain high performance while showing significantly improved Rayleigh–Taylor stability over the point design. Furthermore, the groundwork laid in this study will be a useful design tool for future NIF experiments with graded layer targets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

On-the-fly autonomous control of neutron diffraction via physics-informed Bayesian active learning

We demonstrate the first live, autonomous control over neutron diffraction experiments by developing and deploying ANDiE: the autonomous neutron diffraction explorer. Neutron scattering is a unique and versatile characterization technique for probing the magnetic structure and behavior of materials. However, instruments at neutron scattering facilities in the world is limited, and instruments at such facilities are perennially oversubscribed. We demonstrate a significant reduction in experimental time required for neutron diffraction experiments by implementation of autonomous navigation of measurement parameter space through machine learning. Prior scientific knowledge and Bayesian active learning are used to dynamically steer the sequence of measurements. We show that ANDiE can experimentally determine the magnetic ordering transition of both MnO and Fe 1.09 Te all while providing a fivefold enhancement in measurement efficiency. Furthermore, in a hypothesis testing post-processing step, ANDiE can determine transition behavior from a set of possible physical models. ANDiE's active learning approach is broadly applicable to a variety of neutron-based experiments and can open the door for neutron scattering as a tool of accelerated materials discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification for a Multi-phase Carbon Equation of State Model

Many physics models have tunable parameters that are calibrated by matching the model output to experimental or calculated data. However, given that calibration data often contain uncertainty and that different model parameter sets might result in a very similar simulated output for a finite calibration data set, it is advantageous to provide an ensemble of parameter sets that are consistent with the calibration data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides a means to generate such an ensemble in a statistically rigorous fashion. In this work, we perform UQ for a multi-phase equation of state (EOS) model for carbon containing the diamond, graphite, and liquid phases. We use a Bayesian framework for the UQ and introduce a novel strategy for including phase diagram information in the calibration. The method is highly general and accurately reproduces the calibration data without any material-specific prior knowledge of the EOS model parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification for high explosive reactant and product equations of state

Equations of state (EOSs) are typically represented as physics-informed models with tunable parameters that are adjusted to replicate calibration data as closely as possible. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) allows for the development of an ensemble of EOS parameters that are consistent with the calibration data instead of a single EOS. In this work, we perform UQ for the reactant and product EOSs for a variety of high explosives (HEs). In doing so, we demonstrate a strategy for dealing with heterogeneous (both experimental and calculated) data. We also use a statistical distance metric to quantify the differences between the various HEs using the UQ results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fingerprints of hydrogen bonding in the terahertz dynamics of ethanol and water: An inelastic x-ray scattering study

Here, we used inelastic x-ray scattering methods to measure the terahertz spectrum of density fluctuations of ethanol in both liquid and solid phases. The results of a Bayesian inference-based lineshape analysis with a multiple excitation model and the comparison with a previous similar analysis on water indicate that the different structures induced by hydrogen bonds in ethanol and water have a profound influence on the respective dynamic responses, the latter being characterized by longer living and better resolved high-frequency acoustic excitations. In addition, we compare these findings with those obtained with an alternative approach based on the exponential expansion theory and ensuring sum rules fulfillment, demonstrating that the model’s choice directly impacts the number of spectral modes detected.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous convergence of STM control parameters using Bayesian optimization

Scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) is a widely used tool for atomic imaging of novel materials and their surface energetics. However, the optimization of the imaging conditions is a tedious process due to the extremely sensitive tip–surface interaction, thus limiting the throughput efficiency. In this paper, we deploy a machine learning (ML)-based framework to achieve optimal atomically resolved imaging conditions in real time. The experimental workflow leverages the Bayesian optimization (BO) method to rapidly improve the image quality, defined by the peak intensity in the Fourier space. The outcome of the BO prediction is incorporated into the microscope controls, i.e., the current setpoint and the tip bias, to dynamically improve the STM scan conditions. We present strategies to either selectively explore or exploit across the parameter space. As a result, suitable policies are developed for autonomous convergence of the control parameters. The ML-based framework serves as a general workflow methodology across a wide range of materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗