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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Artificial Reasoning System for Symptom-Based Conditional Failure Probability Estimation Using Bayesian Network

Advances in nuclear power technologies require enhanced capabilities for operator advice and autonomous control. One of the first tasks in the development of such capabilities is the formulation of symptom-based conditional failure probabilities for structures, systems, and components (SSCs) of interest, for which the primary goal is to aid plant personnel in deducing the probabilistic performance status of the monitored SSCs and in detecting impending faults/failure. The task of conditional failure probability estimation is a bidirectional inference problem and shall be logically tackled by the Bayesian network (BN) approach. As a knowledge-based artificial intelligence tool and a probabilistic graphical model, BN offers the capability of reasoning under uncertainty and graphical representation emulating the physical behavior of the target SSC. This paper provides a systematic overview of the BN technique and the software tools for handling implementation of BN models, along with the associated knowledge representation and reasoning paradigm. Both operational data and expert judgement can be readily incorporated into the knowledge base of a BN model. The challenges with data availability are highlighted, and the general approach to target SSC identification is presented. Our focus is upon failure-prone and risk-important balance of plant assets, especially cases having strong operator involvement. An exemplary case study on the failure of a motor-driven centrifugal pump is also conducted to demonstrate the usefulness and technical feasibility of the proposed artificial reasoning system using an expert system shell.

Zhao, Xingang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Methane Monitoring Platform Design (Final Report)

As the urgency for understanding methane emissions and the number of methane monitoring technologies being deployed have increased in the last two decades, there is an opportunity and a need to integrate the numerous disparate data sources to enable the detection, quantification, contextualization, and reporting of methane emissions along the oil and gas supply chain. Such an integration would enable emissions reductions through early detection of super emitters, data-driven mitigation strategies, and improved greenhouse gas inventories. The GTI Energy (“GTI”) project team (“the team”) worked with a multitude of industry experts, stakeholders, and subject matter experts (SMEs) to collect guidance, insights, and information to inform the requirements and subsequent engineering, design, deployment, and operations of an integrated methane monitoring platform (IMMP). This final report describes the results of the team’s effort to execute the Integrated Methane Monitoring Platform Design project, ultimately providing an engineering, design, deployment, and operating plan (EDDOP) for the IMMP. This final report summarizes and integrates the project tasks' results and outputs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Chance-Constrained Design of Voltage Droop Control for Distribution Networks: Preprint

This paper addresses the design of local control methods for voltage control in distribution networks with high level of distributed energy resources (DERs). The designed control methods adapt the active and reactive power output of distributed energy resources proportional to the deviation of the local measured voltage magnitudes from a reference voltage, which is referred to as droop control. Thus, the design focuses on determining the droop characteristics which satisfy network-wide voltage magnitude constraints. The uncertainty and variability of DERs renders the design of optimal droop controls very challenging. Hence, this paper proposes chance constraints to limit the risk from intermittent DERs, by designing droop control coefficients that guarantee the satisfaction of network operational constraints with a specific probability. In addition, the proposed approach relies entirely on historical data rather than assuming knowledge of the probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty of DERs. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on a 37-bus distribution feeder.

chance-constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-physics Topology OPtimization and Additive Manufacturing for High-temperature Heat Exchangers

This research significantly advances the understanding of high-temperature heat exchanger design through an integrated approach that combines topology optimization (TO), triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS) structures, additive manufacturing (AM) and thermohydraulic testing. Each of these components contributes uniquely to a unified, high-performance design, fabrication and testing workflow. Topology optimization serves as the foundation of the design methodology by providing a systematic way to determine the most effective material layout for separating hot and cold fluids while maximizing thermal performance. The researchers introduced a novel three-material optimization framework using two density fields to represent hot fluid, cold fluid, and solid domains. This approach enables automated discovery of optimal shapes and flow paths that cannot be intuitively designed, especially under constraints imposed by manufacturing technologies. Furthermore, constraints such as minimal wall thickness and overhang angles were embedded into the optimization process, ensuring that resulting designs are not only thermally efficient but also manufacturable using modern additive techniques. In parallel, the study delves into the use of Gyroid-based TPMS geometries for constructing the core of the heat exchanger. TPMS structures are known for their high surface area, excellent fluid mixing capabilities, and minimal pressure drop characteristics. The researchers applied a data-driven modeling framework using Heteroscedastic Sparse Gaussian Process Regression (HSGPR) combined with genetic algorithms. This allowed for the rapid evaluation and optimization of key geometric parameters such as frequency, iso-value, and phase shift. The result was a set of Gyroid structures tailored for high heat transfer and low flow resistance, demonstrating clear improvements over conventional straight-channel designs. After the designing process, additive manufacturing played a critical role by turning these highly complex, optimized geometries into physical components. Utilizing Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) with Haynes 282, the study demonstrated the feasibility of fabricating these heat exchangers at high precision. Post-processing methods, including dilation-erosion operations, were applied to ensure local features adhered to self-supporting constraints. The fabricated structures were then subjected to thermohydraulic testing under conditions representative of supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycles, validating the predicted performance and confirming the viability of the full design-to-fabrication pipeline. Finally, thermohydraulic testing across the above studies served as a crucial experimental validation of advanced heat exchanger. Under consistent high-temperature and high-pressure conditions using supercritical CO 2 , the testing demonstrated that both TO and Gyroid-based TPMS designs significantly outperformed conventional straight-channel HXs. The TO design achieved a 115% increase in UA and NTU and a 27.6% boost in gravimetric power density, while the data-driven optimized Gyroid design delivered a 166% increase in UA and NTU and improved effectiveness from 68.7% to 86.1%. These results validate the simulation models, confirm the manufacturability of complex geometries under AM constraints, and provide key insights into design-performance trade-offs, thereby advancing the development of high-efficiency, compact heat exchangers for extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-free stabilization via Extremum Seeking using a cost neural estimator

In this paper, a fully model-free architecture for vertical stabilization of thermonuclear plasmas in tokamak experimental reactors is presented. For the first time, an Extremum Seeking control algorithm is combined with neural networks to estimate the Lyapunov function to be minimized, resulting in a fully data-driven control architecture. The performance of different neural networks are compared. Specifically, Multilayer Perceptrons and Extreme Learning Machines are considered. The proposed architecture is tested in simulation to show that it can counteract relevant plasma disturbances, resulting in a significant improvement in terms of the achievable operative space compared to the Extremum Seeking algorithm, which still relies on model-based cost estimator.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

First-ever deployment of a SiPM-on-tile calorimeter in a collider: a parasitic test with 200 GeV p p collisions at RHIC.

We describe the testing of a prototype SiPM-on-tile iron-scintillator calorimeter at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) during its 200 GeV p p run in 2024. The prototype, measuring 20 × 20 cm 2 and 24 radiation lengths in depth, was positioned in the STAR experimental hall, approximately 8 m from the interaction point and 65 cm from the beam line, covering a pseudorapidity range of about 3.1 < η < 3.4. By using the dark current of a reference SiPM as a radiation monitor, we estimate that the prototype was exposed to a fluence of about 10 10 1-MeV n eq /cm 2 . Channel-by-channel calibration was performed in a data-driven way with the signature from minimum-ionizing particles during beam-on conditions. AGeant4 detector simulation, with inputs from thePythia8 event generator, describes measurements of energy spectra and hit multiplicities reasonably well. These results mark the first deployment, commissioning, calibration, and long-term operation of a SiPM-on-tile calorimeter in a collider environment. This experimental campaign will guide detector designs and operational strategies for the ePIC detector at the future EIC, as well as other applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

On Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for the Unit Commitment Problem

We provide a comprehensive overview of mixed-integer programming formulations for the unit commitment (UC) problem. UC formulations have been an especially active area of research over the past 12 years due to their practical importance in power grid operations, and this paper serves as a capstone for this line of work. We additionally provide publicly available reference implementations of all formulations examined. We computationally test existing and novel UC formulations on a suite of instances drawn from both academic and real-world data sources. Driven by our computational experience from this and previous work, we contribute some additional formulations for both generator production upper bounds and piecewise linear production costs. By composing new UC formulations using existing components found in the literature and new components introduced in this paper, we demonstrate that performance can be significantly improved—and in the process, we identify a new state-of-the-art UC formulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

FY26 Progress Report on the Operation of the Activated Materials Laboratory at the Advanced Photon Source as a Nuclear Science User Facilities Partner Facility

The Activated Materials Laboratory (AML), located in the Long Beamline Building of the Advanced Photon Source (APS) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), provides a centralized radiological capability for preparing, handling, and supporting synchrotron experiments on activated materials. As a Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF) partner facility, the AML enables the receipt of radioactive shipments, open-form sample handling, encapsulation, transport of specimens to and from APS beamlines, and experimentation with dedicated equipment. The partnership includes the APS 1-ID and 20-ID beamlines, which provide high-energy x-ray scattering, tomography, and diffraction microscopy techniques for ex-situ, in-situ, and grainresolved three-dimensional (3D) characterization. All samples supported through the AML and partner beamlines must meet radiological limits of less than 100 mrem/h at 30 cm. This FY26 progress report summarizes the first full year of AML operations as an NSUF partner facility and highlights progress in both user support and capability development. By the end of FY26, the AML had received a total of 10 NSUF-awarded projects, including 2 Consolidated Innovative Nuclear Research (CINR), 7 Rapid Turnaround Experiment (RTE), and 1 Super RTE projects. Beamtime was fully delivered for 3 RTE projects and partially delivered for 1 CINR project, demonstrating successful workflows for receipt, encapsulation, beamline transfer, and radiological experiment execution. These efforts demonstrated safe radiological experiments at APS beamlines for samples with dose rates above the historical 5 mrem/h threshold and now up to 100 mrem/h at 30 cm, marking an important milestone for neutron-irradiated materials research. During FY26, the AML also expanded its experimental capabilities. A Psylotech xTS load frame with in-grip rotation was deployed for room-temperature mechanical testing with threedimensional x-ray characterization during interrupted loading. A Linkam TS1500V vacuum heater was commissioned for thermally driven studies, and temperature calibration experiments were performed to establish specimen-relevant thermal profiles. In parallel, a customized split-tube furnace for high-temperature mechanical testing entered commissioning, and initial work began on robotic sample handling to reduce worker dose and improve operational efficiency. Data workflow and beamline operations continued to mature. Together, these developments demonstrate that the AML is becoming a unique national resource for safe, efficient, and scientifically advanced characterization of activated materials at the APS.

Zhang, Xuan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Non-intrusive data-driven model reduction for differential–algebraic equations derived from lifting transformations

In this paper we present a non-intrusive data-driven approach for model reduction of nonlinear systems. The approach considers the particular case of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) that form systems of partial differential–algebraic equations (PDAEs) when lifted to polynomial form. Such systems arise, for example, when the governing equations include Arrhenius reaction terms (e.g., in reacting flow models) and thermodynamic terms (e.g., the Helmholtz free energy terms in a phase-field solidification model). Using the known structured form of the lifted algebraic equations, the approach computes the reduced operators for the algebraic equations explicitly, using straightforward linear algebra operations on the basis matrices. The reduced operators for the differential equations are inferred from lifted snapshot data using operator inference, which solves a linear least squares regression problem. The approach is illustrated for the nonlinear model of solidification of a pure material. The lifting transformations reformulate the solidification PDEs as a system of PDAEs that have cubic structure. The operators of the lifted system for this solidification example have affine dependence on key process parameters, permitting us to learn a parametric reduced model with operator inference. Numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the resulting reduced models in capturing key aspects of the solidification dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and meteorological drivers of extreme daily reservoir evaporation events in the western United States

Extreme daily evaporation from reservoir surfaces can lead to significant short-term water losses, affecting water quality, water supply, and reservoir operation strategies. Historical trends in daily reservoir evaporation events have eluded the scientific and operational communities, largely due to a lack of long-term, consistent data record. This study quantifies trends in extreme daily reservoir evaporation events at 165 major reservoirs located in the western U.S. Here, we use the place-based energy balance and aerodynamic Daily Lake Evaporation Model (DLEM) driven by multiple meteorological data products (RTMA, gridMET, Daymet) to estimate daily evaporation rates at these reservoirs from 1981 to 2022. The results—while are based on different meteorological forcing datasets—consistently indicate that the California, Lower Colorado, and Rio Grande hydrologic regions are more prone to higher daily evaporation extremes. Compared to the rest of western U.S, these three regions also experience a more pronounced increasing trend in the annual maximum daily evaporation rate, at about 0.3 mm day -1 decade -1 during 1981-2022. The results show that heat and dryness are the main drivers to the increasing trend of extreme evaporation, while extreme wind speed is the primary contributor to exceptionally high daily evaporation events across all regions. This phenomenon is particularly prominent in the arid Lower Colorado region, but less significant in the cold and humid Pacific Northwest region. We also find that the correlation between extreme wind speed and extreme evaporation degrades as the time scale increases from daily, to monthly and seasonal. Our findings have strong implications for the pattern and distribution of extreme evaporation events at the western U.S. reservoirs, and illustrate how various drivers influence extreme evaporation across different time scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Optimization of Energy Recovery From Geothermal Reservoirs With Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Models

Improving the long-term energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs can be accomplished by optimizing field development and management plans. Reliable prediction models, however, are needed to evaluate and optimize the performance of the underlying reservoirs under various operation and development strategies. In traditional frameworks, physics-based simulation models are used to predict the energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs. However, detailed simulation models are not trivial to construct, require a reliable description of the reservoir conditions and properties, and entail high computational complexity. Data-driven predictive models can offer an efficient alternative for use in optimization workflows. This paper presents an optimization framework for net power generation in geothermal reservoirs using a variant of the recurrent neural network (RNN) as a data-driven predictive model. The RNN architecture is developed and trained to replace the simulation model for computationally efficient prediction of the objective function and its gradients with respect to the well control variables. The net power generation performance of the field is optimized by automatically adjusting the mass flow rate of production and injection wells over 12 years, using a gradient-based local search algorithm. Two field-scale examples are presented to investigate the performance of the developed data-driven prediction and optimization framework. Furthermore, the prediction and optimization results from the RNN model are evaluated through comparison with the results obtained by using a numerical simulation model of a real geothermal reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Draft Prototype Microreactor Transportation Safety Program

Microreactors are compact reactors capable of producing less than 50 megawatts of electrical energy. Typically, these reactors are factory-fabricated and designed to be easily transportable by truck, rail, vessel, or air. Microreactor designs often assume that the unit can be transported containing either unirradiated or irradiated fuel. The interest in microreactors is driven by several factors, including the need to generate power on at remote locations, at military installations, at facilities such as data centers, and in areas recovering from natural disasters. The U.S. Department of Defense is actively pursuing the microreactor concept to meet the increasing energy demands of military operations that require portable and dense power sources. Commercial vendors are also exploring microreactor concepts. The report Microreactor Transportation Emergency Planning Challenges (Maheras et al. 2024) outlined the emergency planning challenges associated with the transportation of microreactors by road, rail, and by barge/ship. The successful commercial deployment and redeployment of microreactors will also require the development of microreactor transportation safety programs. The elements in these safety programs are not specific to microreactors; however, the transport of microreactors may pose unique challenges in these areas. This report builds on the report Microreactor Transportation Emergency Planning Challenges (Maheras et al. 2024) and develops the elements of a prototype microreactor transportation safety program that describes the elements that should be contained vendor-developed microreactor transportation safety programs, identifying the unique elements associated with microreactor transport. This will provide vendors and their transportation contractors a basis for their transportation planning and will accelerate the commercial deployment and redeployment of microreactors by identifying those issues unique to microreactor transport. The emphasis of this report is on highway transport of microreactors. This is based on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission transportation package approval strategy of crawl-walk-run, where transport by highway is evaluated first (Coles et al. 2021, 2024, Maheras et al. 2021), then other surface modes (rail and barge/ship), and finally air transport. Evaluation of maritime transport of microreactors was recently initiated (Rigato et al. 2024, Maheras et al. 2025). The report first discusses microreactors in general and microreactor transportation safety program planning assumptions. The report then provides a description of the transportation safety planning process and provides an extensive discussion of the elements of transportation safety programs. Specific elements examined included transportation roles and responsibilities, transportation planning, transportation mode and route selection, carrier selection, transportation packaging, advance notification of shipments, public information and communications, emergency response plans and procedures, inspections, security, safe parking, shipment tracking, weather and road conditions, medical preparedness, training and exercises, and program evaluation. The report then identifies the unique elements of a transportation safety program associated with microreactor transport. These unique elements were in the areas of: the unusual nature of microreactor designs, compensatory measures, increased radiation dose rates in the vicinity of microreactors, transportation package approval versus 10 CFR 50.59, and the use of a risk-informed transportation package approval process.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

From natural language to control signals: a conceptual framework for semantic channel finding in complex experimental infrastructure

Modern experimental platforms such as particle accelerators, fusion devices, telescopes, and industrial process control systems expose tens to hundreds of thousands of control and diagnostic channels, accumulated over decades of hardware evolution. Operators and AI systems alike depend on informal expert knowledge, inconsistent naming conventions, and scattered documentation to locate the signals required for monitoring, troubleshooting, and automated control, creating a persistent bottleneck for reliability, scalability, and emerging language-model-driven interfaces. We formalize semantic channel finding, the task of mapping natural-language intent to concrete control-system signals, as a general problem in complex experimental infrastructure, and introduce a four-paradigm conceptual framework to guide architecture selection based on facility-specific data regimes. The paradigms span (i) direct in-context lookup over small, curated channel dictionaries, (ii) constrained hierarchical navigation through structured trees, (iii) interactive agent exploration using iterative reasoning and tool-based database queries, and (iv) ontology-grounded semantic search that decouples channel meaning from facility-specific naming conventions. We demonstrate the practical feasibility of each paradigm through proof-of-concept implementations at four operational facilities spanning two orders of magnitude in scale: from compact free-electron lasers to large synchrotron light sources, operating under diverse control-system architectures ranging from clean hierarchical naming schemes to legacy environments with decades of heterogeneous conventions. Where evaluated against expert-curated operational queries, these instantiations achieve 90%–97% accuracy, validating the framework’s applicability across real-world deployment scenarios. To accelerate adoption across the broader scientific and industrial control-system community, we release open-source, plug-and-play implementations of all three interactive paradigms-direct lookup, hierarchical navigation, and middle-layer exploration-within the Osprey framework, together with tools for channel database generation, interactive testing, and minimal-configuration deployment. This work establishes semantic channel finding as a foundational capability for human-centric and agentic AI interfaces at large-scale facilities, providing both a systematic framework for architecture design and practical resources to enable adoption without building custom infrastructure from scratch.

channel finding↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning-Driven, Site-Specific Weather Forecasting for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: Preprint

Emerging grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) have great potential to provide much-needed demand flexibility to electric grids while fulfilling their own control targets by co-optimizing smart appliances, solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and energy storage at buildings. To enable the optimal operation of GEBs, site-specific weather information—such as temperature, solar irradiance, relative humidity, and wind speed—is crucial; however, this information is generally unavailable or expensive to obtain. This paper develops advanced machine learning methods to provide precise weather forecasts for individual building sites using readily available weather station data. Support vector regression and artificial neural networks have been employed to learn the spatiotemporal correlations between the weather conditions at nearby weather stations and the individual building site. The proposed site-specific weather forecasting methods have been validated using 1-year actual weather measurement data collected in the Denver metro area. Results show that the developed machine-learning-driven methods can accurately forecast the temperature at the target building site 1 hour ahead with mean absolute error less than 0.72°C and a 48% improvement over the persistence method. Site-specific weather forecasts will improve the understanding of the microclimate effect and its impact on building energy consumption. This information will drive efficiency upgrades and adjustments of building control strategies to improve energy savings and increase flexibility in building loads.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measuring success for a future vision: Defining impact in science gateways/virtual research environments

Scholars worldwide leverage science gateways/virtual research environments (VREs) for a wide variety of research and education endeavors spanning diverse scientific fields. Evaluating the value of a given science gateway/VRE to its constituent community is critical in obtaining the financial and human resources necessary to sustain operations and increase adoption in the user community. In this article, we feature a variety of exemplar science gateways/VREs and detail how they define impact in terms of, for example, their purpose, operation principles, and size of user base. Further, the exemplars recognize that their science gateways/VREs will continuously evolve with technological advancements and standards in cloud computing platforms, web service architectures, data management tools and cybersecurity. We also present a number of technology advances that could be incorporated in next-generation science gateways/VREs to enhance their scope and scale of their operations for greater success/impact. The exemplars are selected from owners of science gateways in the Science Gateways Community Institute (SGCI) clientele in the United States, and from the owners of VREs in the International Virtual Research Environment Interest Group (VRE-IG) of the Research Data Alliance. Thus, community-driven best practices and technology advances are compiled from diverse expert groups with an international perspective to envisage futuristic science gateway/VRE innovations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A framework for characterizing the ambient conditions experienced by light duty vehicles in the United States

The relationship between ambient conditions and light-duty vehicle energy consumption has been widely researched. Relatively little effort, however, has been dedicated to understanding representative ambient conditions a light-duty vehicle may experience. As such, the framework introduced in this article provides a means of quantifying ambient conditions specific to light-duty vehicle operation by incorporating both when and where vehicles are driven. The analysis presented expands the literature beyond solely focusing on temperature; distributions for humidity, solar irradiance, and air density are also included. A procedure is presented that calculates the ambient condition distributions for each metric by relating open-source data sets describing representative vehicle utilization and representative ambient conditions. While this study explores ambient conditions related to light-duty vehicle utilization, the framework may also be applied to separate vocations. Finally, the article concludes with an example use case of the ambient condition weighting process. A binning methodology is introduced that facilitates insight into vehicle energy consumption in response to ambient conditions at the national and local levels while minimizing the number of tests or simulations required.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗