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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Neutronics Calculation Advances at Los Alamos: Manhattan Project to Monte Carlo

The history and advances of neutronics calculations at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project through the present are reviewed. Substantial improvements to neutron diffusion methods and the invention of both the Monte Carlo neutron transport methods in 1947 and deterministic discrete ordinates Sn in 1953 were all made at Los Alamos just after the Manhattan Project. We briefly summarize early simpler and more approximate neutronics methods and then describe the need to better predict neutronics behavior through consideration of theoretical equations, models and algorithms, experimental measurements, and available computing capabilities and their limitations. This paper briefly covers key advances in deterministic methods during the Manhattan Project. These capabilities, coupled with increasing postwar defense needs and the invention of electronic computing with the Electronic Numeric Integrator and Computer, known as ENIAC, and the Mathematical Analyzer Numerical Integrator and Automatic Computer Model, known as MANIAC, led to the creation of Monte Carlo and deterministic discrete ordinates neutronics transport methods. We note the important role that the scientific comradery between the Los Alamos scientists played in the process. This paper briefly covers the early methods, algorithms, computers, and electronic and women pioneers that enabled Monte Carlo to spread to all areas of science. We focus heavily on these early developments and the subsequent creation of the MCNP® code, advances in its associated nuclear data, and its applications to problems of national defense at Los Alamos.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Effect of Nonlinearity in Hybrid Kinetic Monte Carlo-Continuum Models

Recently there has been interest in developing efficient ways to model heterogeneous surface reactions with hybrid computational models that couple a KMC model for a surface to a finite difference model for bulk diffusion in a continuous domain. We consider two representative problems that validate a hybrid method and also show that this method captures the combined effects of nonlinearity and stochasticity. We first validate a simple deposition/dissolution model with a linear rate showing that the KMC-continuum hybrid agrees with both a fully deterministic model and its analytical solution. We then study a deposition/dissolution model including competitive adsorption, which leads to a nonlinear rate, and show that, in this case, the KMC-continuum hybrid and fully deterministic simulations do not agree. However, we are able to identify the difference as a natural result of the stochasticity coming from the KMC surface process. Because KMC captures inherent fluctuations, we consider it to be more realistic than a purely deterministic model. Therefore, we consider the KMC-continuum hybrid to be more representative of a real system.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic Short-Term Wind Forecasting Based on Pinball Loss Optimization

Probabilistic wind power forecasts that quantify the uncertainty in wind output have the potential to aid in the economic grid integration of wind power at large penetration levels. In this paper, a novel probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is proposed, in conjunction with a multi-model machine learning based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework. By assuming the point-forecasted value as the mean at each point, one unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of a predictive distribution at each forecasting point is determined by minimizing the pinball loss. A surrogate model is developed to represent the unknown distribution parameter as a function of deterministic forecasts. This surrogate model can be used together with deterministic forecasts to predict the unknown distribution parameter and thereby generate probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed method has improved the pinball loss by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of floating-point non-associativity on reproducibility for HPC and deep learning applications

Run to run variability in parallel programs caused by floating-point non-associativity has been known to significantly affect reproducibility in iterative algorithms, due to accumulating errors. Non-reproducibility can critically affect the efficiency and effectiveness of correctness testing for stochastic programs. Recently, the sensitivity of deep learning training and inference pipelines to floating-point non-associativity has been found to sometimes be extreme. It can prevent certification for commercial applications, accurate assessment of robustness and sensitivity, and bug detection. New approaches in scientific computing applications have coupled deep learning models with high-performance computing, leading to an aggravation of debugging and testing challenges. Here we perform an investigation of the statistical properties of floating-point non-associativity within modern parallel programming models, and analyze performance and productivity impacts of replacing atomic operations with deterministic alternatives on GPUs. We examine the recently-added deterministic options in PyTorch within the context of GPU deployment for deep learning, uncovering and quantifying the impacts of input parameters triggering run to run variability and reporting on the reliability and completeness of the documentation. Finally, we evaluate the strategy of exploiting automatic determinism that could be provided by deterministic hardware, using the Groq LPUTM accelerator for inference portions of the deep learning pipeline. We demonstrate the benefits that a hardware-based strategy can provide within reproducibility and correctness efforts.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif↗
DOE OSTI2017

Stochastic Multi-Timescale Power System Operations With Variable Wind Generation

This paper describes a novel set of stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch models that consider stochastic loads and variable generation at multiple operational timescales. The stochastic model includes four distinct stages: stochastic day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC), stochastic real-time SCUC, stochastic real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED), and deterministic automatic generation control (AGC). These sub-models are integrated together such that they are continually updated with decisions passed from one to another. The progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is applied to solve the stochastic models to maintain the computational tractability of the proposed models. Comparative case studies with deterministic approaches are conducted in low wind and high wind penetration scenarios to highlight the advantages of the proposed methodology, one with perfect forecasts and the other with current state-of-the-art but imperfect deterministic forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated with sensitivity tests using both economic and reliability metrics to provide a broader view of its impact.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbiome assembly in thawing permafrost and its feedbacks to climate

Abstract The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost–climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post‐thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw‐mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well‐suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high‐disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post‐thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower‐intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post‐thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Weibull and Bootstrap-Based Data-Analytics Framework for Fatigue Life Prognosis of the Pressurized Water Nuclear Reactor Component Under Harsh Reactor Coolant Environment

In general, the fatigue life of a safety critical pressure component is estimated using best-fit fatigue life curves (S-N curves). These curves are estimated based on underlying in-air condition fatigue test data. The best-fitting approach requires a large safety factor to accommodate the uncertainty associated with large scatter in fatigue test data. In addition to this safety factor, reactor component fatigue life prognostics requires an additional correction factor that in general is also estimated deterministically. This additional factor known as the environmental correction factor F en is to cater the effect of the harsh coolant environment that severely reduces the life of these components. The deterministic F en factor may also lead to further conservative estimation of fatigue life leading to unnecessary early retirement of costly reactor components. To address the above-mentioned issues, we propose a data-analytics framework which uses Weibull and Bootstrap probabilistic modeling techniques for explicitly quantifying the uncertainty/scatter associated with fatigue life rather than estimating the lives based on a best-fit based deterministic approach. We assume the proposed probabilistic approach would provide the first hand information for assessing the maximum and minimum effects of pressurized water reactor water on the reactor component. In the discussed approach, in addition to the probabilistic fatigue curves, we suggest using a probabilistic environment correction factor F en . Here, we assume the probabilistic fatigue curve and F en would capture the S-N data scatter associated with the bulk effect of material grades, surface finish, strain rate, etc. on the material/component fatigue life.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Patient radiation dose audits for fluoroscopically guided interventional procedures

Purpose: Quality management for any use of medical x-ray imaging should include monitoring of radiation dose. Fluoroscopically guided interventional (FGI) procedures are inherently clinically variable and have the potential for inducing deterministic injuries in patients. The use of a conventional diagnostic reference level is not appropriate for FGI procedures. A similar but more detailed quality process for management of radiation dose in FGI procedures is described. Methods: A method that takes into account both the inherent variability of FGI procedures and the risk of deterministic injuries from these procedures is suggested. The substantial radiation dose level (SRDL) is an absolute action level (with regard to patient follow-up) below which skin injury is highly unlikely and above which skin injury is possible. The quality process for FGI procedures collects data from all instances of a given procedure from a number of facilities into an advisory data set (ADS). An individual facility collects a facility data set (FDS) comprised of all instances of the same procedure at that facility. The individual FDS is then compared to the multifacility ADS with regard to the overall shape of the dose distributions and the percent of instances in both the ADS and the FDS that exceed the SRDL. Results: Samples of an ADS and FDS for percutaneous coronary intervention, using the dose metric of reference air kerma (K{sub a,r}) (i.e., the cumulative air kerma at the reference point), are used to illustrate the proposed quality process for FGI procedures. Investigation is warranted whenever the FDS is noticeably different from the ADS for the specific FGI procedure and particularly in two circumstances: (1) When the facility's local median K{sub a,r} exceeds the 75th percentile of the ADS and (2) when the percent of instances where K{sub a,r} exceeds the facility-selected SRDL is greater for the FDS than for the ADS. Conclusions: Analysis of the two data sets (ADS and FDS) and of the percent of instances that exceed the SRDL provides a means for the facility to better manage radiation dose (and therefore both deterministic and stochastic radiation risk) to the patient during FGI procedures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Colonization Habitat Controls Biomass, Composition, and Metabolic Activity of Attached Microbial Communities in the Columbia River Hyporheic Corridor

Hydrologic exchange plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling within the hyporheic zone (the interface between river water and groundwater) of riverine ecosystems. Such exchange may set limits on the rates of microbial metabolism and impose deterministic selection on microbial communities that adapt to dynamically changing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) sources. This study examined the response of attached microbial communities ( in situ colonized sand packs) from groundwater, hyporheic, and riverbed habitats within the Columbia River hyporheic corridor to “cross-feeding” with either groundwater, river water, or DOC-free artificial fluids. Our working hypothesis was that deterministic selection during in situ colonization would dictate the response to cross-feeding, with communities displaying maximal biomass and respiration when supplied with their native fluid source. In contrast to expectations, the major observation was that the riverbed colonized sand had much higher biomass and respiratory activity, as well as a distinct community structure, compared with those of the hyporheic and groundwater colonized sands. 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing revealed a much higher proportion of certain heterotrophic taxa as well as significant numbers of eukaryotic algal chloroplasts in the riverbed colonized sand. Significant quantities of DOC were released from riverbed sediment and colonized sand, and separate experiments showed that the released DOC stimulated respiration in the groundwater and piezometer colonized sand. These results suggest that the accumulation and degradation of labile particulate organic carbon (POC) within the riverbed are likely to release DOC, which may enter the hyporheic corridor during hydrologic exchange, thereby stimulating microbial activity and imposing deterministic selective pressure on the microbial community composition. IMPORTANCE The influence of river water-groundwater mixing on hyporheic zone microbial community structure and function is an important but poorly understood component of riverine biogeochemistry. This study employed an experimental approach to gain insight into how such mixing might be expected to influence the biomass, respiration, and composition of hyporheic zone microbial communities. Colonized sands from three different habitats (groundwater, river water, and hyporheic) were “cross-fed” with either groundwater, river water, or DOC-free artificial fluids. We expected that the colonization history would dictate the response to cross-feeding, with communities displaying maximal biomass and respiration when supplied with their native fluid source. By contrast, the major observation was that the riverbed communities had much higher biomass and respiration, as well as a distinct community structure compared with those of the hyporheic and groundwater colonized sands. These results highlight the importance of riverbed microbial metabolism in organic carbon processing in hyporheic corridors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Combining Push-Forward Measures and Bayes' Rule to Construct Consistent Solutions to Stochastic Inverse Problems

We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data on quantities of interest. The solution, given as a probability measure, is derived using a Bayesian updating approach for measurable maps that finds a posterior probability measure, that when propagated through the deterministic model produces a push-forward measure that exactly matches the observed probability measure on the data. Our approach for finding such posterior measures, which we call consistent Bayesian inference or push-forward based inference, is simple and only requires the computation of the push-forward probability measure induced by the combination of a prior probability measure and the deterministic model. We establish existence and uniqueness of observation-consistent posteriors and present both stability and error analyses. We also discuss the relationships between consistent Bayesian inference, classical/statistical Bayesian inference, and a recently developed measure-theoretic approach for inference. Finally, analytical and numerical results are presented to highlight certain properties of the consistent Bayesian approach and the differences between this approach and the two aforementioned alternatives for inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Software Control Program For Transportable Microgrid State-of-charge Balancing And Frequency Stability Controls

A deterministic state-of-charge (SOC) balancing approach software control code is introduced as an integral secondary management to primary control layer of an islanded small microgrid or nanogrid system made up of multiple grid-forming inverter/battery/solar combination systems, where each set of batteries with each inverter are on independent DC buses (i.e. non-paralleled on the DC sides). A DERMS-level control approach, algorithm and automation controller program was developed to improve coordination and enable microgrid asset compliance and SOC balancing, enabling provision of a system-level power stability support architecture, load support, and asset scalability. The architecture is configured to treat each unit or micro/nano-grid as a node in a microgrid network, allowing for autonomous DERMS control regarding load and SOC balancing and power stability. As the network grows with the addition of units, greater coordination efforts may be required. The ideal small network microgrid ranges from 2-10 inverter/battery units before additional control parameters must be considered in the existing architecture. The control approach focuses on a deterministic state-of-charge analysis as the primary level control process followed by a secondary control loop using a forced frequency-watt droop strategy to conform off-the-shelf components into behaving under a leader-follower configuration. Adopting this control scheme has been shown to allow for a balanced, unit-coordinated microgrid network, enabling stable power flow. The deterministic state-of-charge approach is introduced as an integral primary control layer of an islanded small network microgrid. A standard strategy for SOC balancing is implementing a battery management system (BMS) to control SOC on the DC side. An alternative approach is to determine how to coordinate sending and receiving power on the AC side with multiple units. The latter approach assesses all the integrated units in the microgrid network. Once the individual units are identified, further system data is required to calculate each unit's total kWh, provided information about its capability to supply or consume kWh and availability. The secondary control layer in the multi-layered small network microgrid methodology uses the primary layer’s decision to initiate frequency setpoint changes, initializing the SOC balancing. The secondary control layer considers numerous system-dependent variables to enable a charging and discharging profile based on adjustable frequency setpoints. The combined architecture will result in stable, coordinated power flow enhancing an AC microgrid's functionalities.

Myers, KurtS [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robustness of the Stochastic Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Wind Variability in Sea Surface Fluxes

Abstract High-resolution numerical models have been used to develop statistical models of the enhancement of sea surface fluxes resulting from spatial variability of sea surface wind. In particular, studies have shown that flux enhancement is not a deterministic function of the resolved state. Previous studies focused on single geographical areas or used a single high-resolution numerical model. This study extends the development of such statistical models by considering six different high-resolution models, four different geographical regions, and three different 10-day periods, allowing for a systematic investigation of the robustness of both the deterministic and stochastic parts of the data-driven parameterization. Results indicate that the deterministic part, based on regressing the unresolved normalized flux onto resolved-scale normalized flux and precipitation, is broadly robust across different models, regions, and time periods. The statistical features of the stochastic part of the model (spatial and temporal autocorrelation and parameters of a Gaussian process fit to the regression residual) are also found to be robust and not strongly sensitive to the underlying model, modeled geographical region, or time period studied. Best-fit Gaussian process parameters display robust spatial heterogeneity across models, indicating potential for improvements to the statistical model. These results illustrate the potential for the development of a generic, explicitly stochastic parameterization of sea surface flux enhancements dependent on wind variability.

Endo, Kota↗
DOE OSTI2014

FW-CADIS Method for Global and Regional Variance Reduction of Monte Carlo Radiation Transport Calculations

This paper presents a hybrid (Monte Carlo/deterministic) method for increasing the efficiency of Monte Carlo calculations of distributions, such as flux or dose rate distributions (e.g., mesh tallies), as well as responses at multiple localized detectors and spectra. This method, referred to as Forward-Weighted CADIS (FW-CADIS), is an extension of the Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) method, which has been used for more than a decade to very effectively improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo calculations of localized quantities (e.g., flux, dose, or reaction rate at a specific location). The basis of this method is the development of an importance function that represents the importance of particles to the objective of uniform Monte Carlo particle density in the desired tally regions. Implementation of this method utilizes the results from a forward deterministic calculation to develop a forward-weighted source for a deterministic adjoint calculation. The resulting adjoint function is then used to generate consistent space-and energy-dependent source biasing parameters and weight windows that are used in a forward Monte Carlo calculation to obtain more uniform statistical uncertainties in the desired tally regions. The FW-CADIS method has been implemented and demonstrated within the MAVRIC (Monaco with Automated Variance Reduction using Importance Calculations) sequence of SCALE and the ADVANTG (Automated Deterministic Variance Reduction Generator)/MCNP framework. Application of the method to representative real-world problems, including calculation of dose rate and energy-dependent flux throughout the problem space, dose rates in specific areas, and energy spectra at multiple detectors, is presented and discussed. Results of the FW-CADIS method and other recently developed global variance-reduction approaches are also compared, and the FW-CADIS method outperformed the other methods in all cases considered.

Wagner, John C↗
DOE OSTI2022

On-the-fly response function generation method for composite coarse mesh

The hybrid stochastic deterministic transport code COMET, based on the incident response expansion theory, is used to model reactor cores with high fidelity and formidable computational speed. COMET models a reactor core using a library of incident flux response expansion coefficients that are pre computed for all the unique lattice cells (e.g., fuel assemblies, reflector blocks, etc.) in the core. In order to further improve its computational efficiency in pre-calculating the response library a new response function generation method is developed to compute the response functions for the composite coarse meshes made of a smaller set of unique lattices on the fly within the COMET's deterministic transport core sweep. The efficiency is achieved by eliminating a number of unique lattices that can be made up from the reduced set of unique meshes on the fly. The numerical process consists of the following steps. First, the boundary condition on composite coarse mesh boundaries is projected onto the expansion basis to compute the incident flux moments on external surfaces of all the basic (reduced set of unique) coarse meshes. Secondly, the deterministic sweeping solver in COMET is used to converge on the outgoing/incoming flux expansion moments crossing interfaces between the basic coarse meshes. Thirdly, the response functions for the composite coarse meshes are constructed as a superposition on the fly. The new response function generation method was tested on 88 composite coarse meshes consisting of CANDU fuel bundles and moderator blocks. It was found that response functions generated by the new method agree very well with those generated by direct Monte Carlo calculations. The average and maximum relative differences in the surface-to-surface response coefficients computed by the two methods are 0.10% and 0.20%, respectively. Similarly, the average and maximum relative differences in the response fission densities are 0.13% and 0.43%, respectively. These discrepancies are within one standard deviation of the stochastic uncertainties. The new method is five times faster than the original direct Monte Carlo method. The size of the response function library for the new method is five times smaller than that for the original method, leading to significantly less requirement for the computer hard drive space and memory. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Hybrid and Parallel Domain-Decomposition Methods Development to Enable Monte Carlo for Reactor Analyses

This paper describes code and methods development at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory focused on enabling high-fidelity, large-scale reactor analyses with Monte Carlo (MC). Current state-of-the-art tools and methods used to perform real commercial reactor analyses have several undesirable features, the most significant of which is the non-rigorous spatial decomposition scheme. Monte Carlo methods, which allow detailed and accurate modeling of the full geometry and are considered the gold standard for radiation transport solutions, are playing an ever-increasing role in correcting and/or verifying the deterministic, multi-level spatial decomposition methodology in current practice. However, the prohibitive computational requirements associated with obtaining fully converged, system-wide solutions restrict the role of MC to benchmarking deterministic results at a limited number of state-points for a limited number of relevant quantities. The goal of this research is to change this paradigm by enabling direct use of MC for full-core reactor analyses. The most significant of the many technical challenges that must be overcome are the slow, non-uniform convergence of system-wide MC estimates and the memory requirements associated with detailed solutions throughout a reactor (problems involving hundreds of millions of different material and tally regions due to fuel irradiation, temperature distributions, and the needs associated with multi-physics code coupling). To address these challenges, our research has focused on the development and implementation of (1) a novel hybrid deterministic/MC method for determining high-precision fluxes throughout the problem space in k-eigenvalue problems and (2) an efficient MC domain-decomposition (DD) algorithm that partitions the problem phase space onto multiple processors for massively parallel systems, with statistical uncertainty estimation. The hybrid method development is based on an extension of the FW-CADIS method, which attempts to achieve uniform statistical uncertainty throughout a designated problem space. The MC DD development is being implemented in conjunction with the Denovo deterministic radiation transport package to have direct access to the 3-D, massively parallel discrete-ordinates solver (to support the hybrid method) and the associated parallel routines and structure. This paper describes the hybrid method, its implementation, and initial testing results for a realistic 2-D quarter core pressurized-water reactor model and also describes the MC DD algorithm and its implementation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Notes on the Lumped Backward Master Equation for the Neutron Extinction/Survival Probability

The expected or mean neutron number (or density) provides an adequate characterization of the neutron population and its dynamical excursions in most neutronic applications, in particular power reactors. Fluctuations in the neutron number, originating from the inherent randomness of neutron interactions and fission neutron multiplicities, are relatively small and ignorable for operational purposes, although measurements of the variance and time correlations provide valuable diagnostic information on fundamental reactor physics parameters. However, it is well known that there exist situations of great interest and importance in which a strictly deterministic description, or even one supplemented with a knowledge of low order statistical averages (variance, correlation), provides an incomplete and very unsatisfactory description of the state of the neutron population. These situations are marked by persistent large fluctuations in the neutron number where the emergence of a deterministic phase is suppressed. Such situations are strongly stochastic and therefore unpredictable (i.e., the mean is not representative of the actual population), and can arise either by design or by accident. Examples where the stochastic behavior of neutron populations must be taken into account include: nuclear weapon single-point safety assessment; criticality excursions in spent fuel storage and in the handling of fissile solutions in fuel fabrication and reprocessing; approach to critical under suboptimal reactor start-up conditions; preinitiation in fast burst research reactors; and weak nuclear signatures in the passive detection of nuclear materials. What distinguishes strongly stochastic neutronic systems from strongly deterministic systems is that, in the former, neutron multiplication occurs in the presence of weak neutron sources, such as spontaneous fission and background (cosmic) radiation. Weak sources (in a sense that can be made quite precise) lead to well separated fission chains (a fission chain is defined as the initial source neutron and all its subsequent progeny) in which some chains are short lived while others propagate for unusually long times. Under these conditions, fission chains do not overlap strongly and this precludes the cancellation of neutron number fluctuations necessary for the mean to become established as the dominant measure of the neutron population. The fate of individual chains then plays a defining role in the evolution of the neutron population in strongly stochastic systems, and of particular interest and importance in supercritical systems is the extinction probability, defined as the probability that the neutron chain (initiating neutron and its progeny) will be extinguished at a particular time, or its complement, the time-dependent survival probability. The time-asymptotic limit of the latter, the probability of divergence, gives the probability that the neutron population will grow without bound, and is more commonly known as the probability of initiation or just POI. The ability to numerically compute these probabilities, with high accuracy and without overly restricting the underlying physics (e.g., fission neutron multiplicity, reactivity variation) is clearly essential in developing an understanding of the behavior of strongly stochastic systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling using Space, Energy and Angle

For challenging radiation transport problems, hybrid methods combine the accuracy of Monte Carlo methods with the global information present in deterministic methods. One of the most successful hybrid methods is CADIS Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling. This method uses a deterministic adjoint solution to construct a biased source distribution and consistent weight windows to optimize a specific tally in a Monte Carlo calculation. The method has been implemented into transport codes using just the spatial and energy information from the deterministic adjoint and has been used in many applications to compute tallies with much higher figures-of-merit than analog calculations. CADIS also outperforms user-supplied importance values, which usually take long periods of user time to develop. This work extends CADIS to develop weight windows that are a function of the position, energy, and direction of the Monte Carlo particle. Two types of consistent source biasing are presented: one method that biases the source in space and energy while preserving the original directional distribution and one method that biases the source in space, energy, and direction. Seven simple example problems are presented which compare the use of the standard space/energy CADIS with the new space/energy/angle treatments.

Peplow, Douglas E.↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Robust Unit Commitment

This report summarizes the procedure to compare the robust UC approach with the deterministic counterpart. The procedure involves solving the robust and deterministic UC problems under various scenario configurations, and then performing system dispatch simulations under each UC solution to generate economic and operational performance measures. The report describes the parallelization process for solving UC problems as well as for running system dispatch simulations. The report also summarizes the statistical model used for generating Monte Carlo simulation samples and forming forecast ranges used in the robust UC approach. Some key findings are discussed as well. In particular, the economic and operational performance of the robust and deterministic approaches is compared under different 1) conservatism levels or the sizes of forecast range, 2) the wind penetration levels, and 3) the mixture of load and wind behaviors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗