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At least 595 records · Page 33

Particle-Hole Asymmetric Ferromagnetism and Spin Textures in the Triangular Hubbard-Hofstadter Model

In a lattice model subject to a perpendicular magnetic field, when the lattice constant is comparable to the magnetic length, one enters the “Hofstadter regime,” where continuum Landau levels become fractal magnetic Bloch bands. Strong mixing between bands alters the nature of the resulting quantum phases compared to the continuum limit; lattice potential, magnetic field, and Coulomb interaction must be treated on equal footing. Using determinant quantum Monte Carlo and density matrix renormalization group techniques, we study this regime numerically in the context of the Hubbard-Hofstadter model on a triangular lattice. In the field-filling phase diagram, we find a broad wedge-shaped region of ferromagnetic ground states for filling factor ν ≤ 1 , bounded below by filling factor ν = 1 and bounded above by half filling the lowest Hofstadter subband. We observe signatures of SU(2) quantum Hall ferromagnetism at filling factors ν = 1 and ν = 3 . The phases near ν = 1 are particle-hole asymmetric, and we observe a rapid decrease in ground-state spin polarization consistent with the formation of skyrmions only on the electron doped side. At large fields, above the ferromagnetic wedge, we observe a low-spin metallic region with spin correlations peaked at small momenta. We argue that the phenomenology of this region likely results from exchange interaction mixing fractal Hofstadter subbands. The phase diagram derived beyond the continuum limit points to a rich landscape to explore interaction effects in magnetic Bloch bands. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Ding, Jixun K.↗

Low-mass vector-meson production at forward rapidity in 𝑝 + 𝑝 and Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠_{𝑁⁢𝑁}}$ = 200 GeV

The PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider has measured low-mass vector-meson (𝜔+𝜌 and 𝜙) production through the dimuon decay channel at forward rapidity (1.2 < |y| < 2.2) in 𝑝 + 𝑝 and Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠_{𝑁⁢𝑁}}$ = 200 GeV. The low-mass vector-meson yield and nuclear-modification factor were measured as a function of the average number of participating nucleons, ⟨𝑁 part ⟩, and the transverse momentum 𝑝 𝑇 . These results were compared with those obtained via the kaon decay channel in a similar 𝑝 𝑇 range at midrapidity. The nuclear-modification factors in both rapidity regions are consistent within the uncertainties. A comparison of the 𝜔 + 𝜌 and 𝐽/𝜓 mesons reveals that the light and heavy flavors are consistently suppressed across both 𝑝 𝑇 and ⟨𝑁 part ⟩. Finally, in contrast, the 𝜙 meson displays a nuclear-modification factor consistent with unity, suggesting strangeness enhancement in the medium formed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quantum nanophotonic interface for tin-vacancy centers in thin-film diamond

The negatively charged tin-vacancy center in diamond (SnV − ) is an excellent solid state qubit with optically-addressable transitions and a long electron spin coherence time at elevated (∼1.7 K). However, implementing scalable quantum nodes with high-fidelity optical readout of the electron spin state requires efficient photon emission and collection from the system. Here, in this manuscript, we report a quantum photonic interface for SnV−centers based on one-dimensional photonic crystal cavities fabricated in diamond thin films. Furthermore, we provide a rigorous description of the spontaneous emission dynamics of our system, taking into account individual contributions from both the C and D transitions of the emitter. This allows for determination of Purcell factors per transition and, by extension, the C/D branching ratio SnV− zero phonon line. We observe quality factors up to ~6000 across this sample, and measure up to a 12-fold lifetime reduction, which translates into a Purcell factor of 𝐹 𝐶 =26.2±1.5 for a targeted C transition. By considering the cavity mode polarization alignment with the C and D transition dipole moments, we validate the C/D branching ratio to be 𝜂 BR =0.75±0.01, in line with previous theoretical and experimental findings.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Generalized parton distributions from symbolic regression

AI/ML informed Symbolic Regression is the next stage of scientific modeling. We utilize a highly customizable symbolic regression package “PySR” to model the x and t dependence of the flavor isovector combination Hu-d(x, t, ) at = 0. These PySR models were trained on GPD results provided by both Lattice QCD and phenomenological sources GGL, GK, and VGG. We demonstrate, for the first time, the consistency and systematic convergence of Symbolic Regression by quantifying the disparate models through their Taylor expansion coefficients. In addition to PySR penalizing models with higher complexity and mean-squared error, we implement schemes that test specific physics hypotheses, including force-factorized x and t dependence and Regge behavior in PySR GPDs. We show that PySR can identify factorizing GPD sources based on their response to the Force-Factorized model. Here, knowing the precise behavior of the GPDs, and their uncertainties in a wide range in x and t, crucially impacts our ability to concretely and quantitatively predict hadronic spatial distributions and their derived quantities.

Dotson, Andrew [New Mexico State University, Las C↗

A Near-Real-Time Model for Predicting Electricity Disruptions in Texas During Winter Storms

There has been an increase in extreme weather events, posing a threat to power grid systems, potentially influenced by factors such as population growth, changes in ecosystems, land cover, and land use in the service area, as well as the growth of certain vegetation types. This research seeks to develop a predictive model to mitigate potential damages caused by future winter storms. This research utilizes the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), incorporating the number of power outages experienced at the county level, geographic details, weather information, and lagged outage and lagged weather data. The developed models were broadly divided into two groups, with six models in each group - one group without optimization and another with optimization, totaling 12 trained models. For model optimization, Bayesian optimization was employed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the objective function. In results, when comparing Group 2 (the optimized group) with Group 1 (the non-optimized group), it was found that optimization did not always lead to a reduction in RMSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). However, in terms of Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA), while all results in Group 1 were below the baseline accuracy of 0.33, all results in Group 2 exceeded 0.33, with some cases showing an increase of more than three times the baseline. The results indicated that, in the optimized model group, Population and Pressure were the most influential factors when using current weather data and geographical information. When using lagged data, lagged recorded outages and lagged Pressure emerged as the most significant factors. Among the 12 developed models, the L-1-2-O model showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, as well as the highest accuracy, with values of 390.62 households and 168.13 households, respectively. To normalize the RMSE and MAE values, each metric was divided by the average number of households among the counties in Texas. For the L-1-2-O model, the scaled RMSE was 0.88% and the scaled MAE was 0.38%. In terms of MDA, which indicates the accuracy of the prediction direction, the L-1-O model achieved the highest score of 0.41. Although this study focused on Texas, which suffered the greatest impact from the winter storms in 2021, with additional validation, the methodology used in this research could be applied to other regions.

Lee, Jangjae [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, ↗

Uniform Mechanical Loading Can Test for Nonuniform Loading Durability

In this work, we present a method to evaluate the equivalency between any module mechanical loading conditions. The method is developed to address the specific failure mode of glass fracture and is based on Weibull analysis and weakest link theory. It considers the varying stress profile across the module to calculate the probability of glass fracture, which is used as the metric of equivalency. An idealized nonuniform loading scheme is employed to demonstrate the method and introduce the concept of the equivalent uniform load factor: a factor applied to the maximum pressure of the nonuniform load to obtain the equivalent uniform load value. It is demonstrated that this factor is less than unity for all nonuniform load cases considered, including snow and various characters of wind loading. These significant results suggest that uniform loading may be reliably, and practically, employed to evaluate photovoltaic module glass for nonuniform loading durability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Thermocouple and RTD Drift Due to Neutron Irradiation and Temperature for Space Nuclear Applications: A Review

Temperature measurement is a key factor in the safe and reliable operation of nuclear reactors. Thermocouples and resistance temperature detectors (RTDs) are among the most common and reliable tools deployed for temperature measurement, and some are capable of operating in extreme environments such as very high temperature and neutron radiation fields anticipated in nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) or fission surface power. These devices are known to exhibit drifting behavior in their temperature readings throughout their operational lifetimes. Here, to help select appropriate instrumentation, it is important to identify the factors that influence drift as well as typical behavior in these environments. This work is focused on identifying contributing factors in the performance of thermocouples and RTDs. An extensive literature review is included that discusses several experimental results in different environments. Although individual instrument performance may vary with construction methods, materials selection, and vendors, this review aims to assist in the selection process and identify typical expected behaviors of several devices.

Chesser, Ryan J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

Historical Power Outages of the United States and the Social Vulnerability Index

Several works have been documented in the literature to study the societal effect of power outages and to analyze their correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Because the SVI is calculated based on the summed rank of multiple vulnerability factors for environmental hazards, it can include factors irrelevant to power outages caused by extreme events. This work performs a detailed correlation analysis for social vulnerability and power outages by considering different SVI themes (e.g., socioeconomic status, household composition, racial and ethnic minority status, and housing and transportation) and power outages with and without a threshold for extreme weather events. Although there is some relation between specific themes and aspects of power outages and the SVI in the results, there is no strong distinction between power outage durations and low vs. high SVI values. These results point to the need for further research that grounds the specific factors and methods used to develop SVI and related indices to energy services and power systems disruptions.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

Oscillation Risks of Grid-Following and Grid-Forming Inverter-Based Resources in Series-Compensated Networks

Here, this paper investigates the dynamic behavior of a grid-connected inverter-based resource (IBR) when connected radially to a series compensated line. Potential interactions between the series compensation and the IBR have been identified for both types: grid-following (GFL) or grid-forming (GFM). The study begins with electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations to demonstrate stability issues. Subsequently, nonlinear analytical models are formulated in the dq frame, validated against the EMT simulation, and leveraged to assess eigenvalues and participation factors. Influencing factors of the dominant oscillation modes have been identified. The analysis results show that series compensation may make a mode associated with the synchronization unit unstable. Furthermore, customized feedback systems are built for the synchronizing loop. Series compensation can increase the sensitivity of the voltage phase angle towards the synchronizing angle, and introduce phase lag in the real power response towards the synchronizing angle. These factors may cause interactions with the phase-locked loop in GFL-IBR systems and with power-based synchronization in GFM-IBR systems, potentially leading to instability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Water Temperature, Prey Concentration and Salmonid Density Influence Daily Growth of Wild Juvenile Salmonids in Tributaries of the Upper Salmon River, Idaho ( USA )

ABSTRACT Theory, experiments and field studies indicate that the somatic growth rate of freshwater consumers is shaped by the individual, additive and multiplicative effects of multiple factors, including consumer size and condition, temperature, prey resources and biotic interactions. While our understanding of how these factors affect wild populations of freshwater consumers is improving, the topic remains poorly studied, especially with respect to mobile species. Here, we report on an 8‐year, seven‐stream ( n = 49 stream‐year combinations) observational study examining the individual and interactive effects of invertebrate prey concentration (F, mg/m 3 ), mean daily water temperature (T, °C) and juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) density (D, fish/100 m 2 ) on summer daily growth rates (%/d) of mobile, anadromous, juvenile Chinook salmon (age‐0+, n = 382) and sub‐yearling (age‐0+, n = 61) and yearling (age‐1+) steelhead trout ( O. mykiss , n = 70) rearing in cold (mean daily summer: 12.1°C, range: 4.2°C–16.7°C) mountain tributaries of the Salmon River basin in central Idaho (USA). AIC c model selection indicated that daily juvenile salmonid growth positively correlated with water temperature, prey biomass concentration, local juvenile Chinook density and the interaction between water temperature and food but with species and age‐specific differences. Water temperature was a covariate in all top‐ranked models, with daily growth (%/day) rate increasing (0.05%–0.23%/d) linearly with mean daily summer water temperature. In addition to a direct positive relationship with daily growth rate, there was evidence that prey concentration positively interacted with water temperature to accelerate daily growth (F × T). The positive relationship between juvenile salmonid daily growth rate and juvenile Chinook density is difficult to explain and could result from confounding factors. The individual success observed in these streams may contribute to population‐level benefits for the focal consumers, as prey‐rich, warm summers may result in larger individuals with higher energy reserves at the end of the summer/autumn growing season, contributing to improved overwinter survival. Our results, taken in combination with evidence from models, experiments and observational studies, have climate change implications. Current and predicted increases in water temperature will necessitate higher rates of prey consumption by aquatic ectothermic consumers to offset accelerated metabolic demands. Thus, to improve the resilience of mobile freshwater consumers in a warming climate, we suggest that natural resource managers not only consider physical and chemical habitat conditions but also biotic conditions, including the spatiotemporal quantity and quality of prey resources.

Kiffney, Peter. M. [Fish Ecology, Northwest Fisher↗

Interactions between macro‐ and micro‐climate: Effects on phenolic compound production in Nardus stricta at high elevations

Abstract Phenolic compounds are key to plant defence, offering protection as antioxidants, UV shields, and antimicrobials. Their production is largely shaped by environmental conditions. It is believed that plants at lower elevations increase phenolic content to counter herbivory, while those at higher elevations rely on phenolics to manage abiotic stresses, such as climate variability. Microhabitat warming also affects phenolic levels, but responses differ, depending on broader climatic contexts: plants in warmer, lower‐elevation environments show limited adaptability, whereas high‐elevation plants demonstrate greater plasticity. Despite the importance of these environmental interactions, many small‐scale abiotic studies lack sufficient spatial replication across broader gradients like elevation or latitude, while large‐scale studies frequently overlook microscale factors. This study investigated the effects of macroclimate factors and microhabitat warming on phenolic production in Nardus stricta across five semi‐natural grassland sites (1546–1875 m a.s.l.) in Portugal's Serra da Estrela. Warming was simulated using open‐top chambers over two growing seasons, after which leaf samples were analysed for phenolic compounds, and soil nutrients were measured. The N. stricta plants at the highest elevation site contained significantly higher leaf flavonoid concentrations. Microhabitat warming led to a significant decrease in flavonoid concentrations, but only at the highest elevation site. These effects occurred independently of soil nutrient levels, suggesting direct thermal effects or stress responses might be involved. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between macro‐ and microenvironmental factors in shaping plant chemistry, underscoring critical considerations for plant resilience in the face of climate change. This understanding is essential for developing strategies to support plant and ecosystem adaptation to changing climates.

Moreira, X. [Misión Biológica de Galicia (MBG‐CSIC↗

Working Fluid Characterization and Performance Assessment of Subcritical Organic Rankine Cycles Based on the Lee–Kesler Approach for Energy Recovery

Here, a generalized model using the Lee–Kesler approach based on the corresponding states principle is developed to assess the performance of subcritical Organic Rankine Cycles operating with different working fluids. Each fluid is characterized by five parameters: the acentric factor, critical temperature, critical pressure, molar mass, and the ideal-gas ratio of specific heats at the critical temperature. The model was developed using the compressibility factor modified version of the Benedict–Webb–Rubin equation proposed by Lee and Kesler and the enthalpy and entropy functions to calculate thermodynamic state properties. The model was validated by comparing the results calculated with the model and working fluid thermodynamic properties obtained with the CoolProp database. This comparison was conducted for 91 working fluids, obtaining a relative error below 5% for 88 out of the 91 fluids (∼97%). A generalized parametric study was conducted to determine the influence of the pinch point and each fluid parameter on the performance of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) systems. It was found that efficiency increases with critical temperature, ideal-gas ratio of specific heats at the critical temperature, and acentric factor, reaching up to 13%. The developed model enables the evaluation of ORC system performance for existing working fluids. It also allows the formulation and evaluation of new fluids to enhance the performance of the ORC while retrieving energy from any kind of source; and likewise, the methodology can be applied to other power generation cycles.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CRISPR-prime editing, a versatile genetic tool to create specific mutations with a single nucleotide resolution in Leptospira

ABSTRACT Leptospirosis, caused by pathogenic bacteria from the genusLeptospira, is a global zoonosis responsible for more than one million human cases and 60,000 deaths annually. The disease also affects many domestic animal species. Historically, genetic manipulation ofLeptospirahas been difficult to perform, resulting in limited knowledge on pathogenic mechanisms of disease and the identification of virulence factors. The application of CRISPR/Cas9 and its variations have helped fill these gaps but the generation of knockout mutants remains challenging because double-strand breaks (DSBs) inflicted by Cas9 nuclease are lethal toLeptospiracells. The novel CRISPR prime editing (PE) strategy is the first precise genome-editing technology that allows deletions, insertions, and base substitutions without introducing DSBs. This revolutionary technique utilizes a nickase Cas9 that cleaves a single strand of DNA, coupled with an engineered reverse transcriptase and a modified single-guide RNA (termed prime editing guide RNA) containing an extended 3′ end with the desired edits. We demonstrate the application of CRISPR-PE in both saprophytic and pathogenicLeptospirafrom multiple species and serovars by introducing deletions or insertions into target DNA with a remarkable precision of just one nucleotide. Additionally, we demonstrate the ability to genetically manipulateLeptospira borgpetersenii, a prevalent pathogenic species of humans, domestic cattle, and wildlife animals. Rapid plasmid loss by mutated strains in liquid culture allows for the generation of knockout strains without selective markers, which can be readily used to elucidate virulence factors and develop optimized bacterin and/or live vaccines against leptospirosis. IMPORTANCE Leptospirosis is a geographically widespread bacterial zoonosis. Genetic manipulation of pathogenicLeptospiraspp. has been laborious and difficult to perform, limiting our ability to understand how leptospires cause disease. The application of the CRISPR/Cas9 system toLeptospiraenhanced our ability to generate knockdown and knockout mutants; however, the latter remains challenging. Here, we demonstrate the application of the CRISPR prime editing technique inLeptospira, allowing the generation of knockout mutants in several pathogenic species, with mutations comprising just a single nucleotide resolution. Notably, we generated a mutant in theLeptospira borgpeterseniibackground, a prevalent pathogenic species of humans and cattle. Our application of this method opens new avenues for studying pathogenic mechanisms ofLeptospiraand the identification of virulence factors across multiple species. These methods can also be used to facilitate the generation of marker-less knockout strains for updated and improved bacterin and/or live vaccines.

Microbiology↗

The direct and indirect drivers shaping RNA viral communities in grassland soils

ABSTRACT Recent studies have revealed diverse RNA viral communities in soils. Yet, how environmental factors influence soil RNA viruses remains largely unknown. Here, we recovered RNA viral communities from bulk metatranscriptomes sequenced from grassland soils managed for 5 years under multiple environmental conditions including water content, plant presence, cultivar type, and soil depth. More than half of the unique RNA viral contigs (64.6%) were assigned with putative hosts. About 74.7% of these classified RNA viral contigs are known as eukaryotic RNA viruses suggesting eukaryotic RNA viruses may outnumber prokaryotic RNA viruses by nearly three times in this grassland. Of the identified eukaryotic RNA viruses and the associated eukaryotic species, the most dominant taxa were Mitoviridae with an average relative abundance of 72.4%, and their natural hosts, Fungi with an average relative abundance of 56.6%. Network analysis and structural equation modeling support that soil water content, plant presence, and type of cultivar individually demonstrate a significant positive impact on eukaryotic RNA viral richness directly as well as indirectly on eukaryotic RNA viral abundance via influencing the co-existing eukaryotic members. A significant negative influence of soil depth on soil eukaryotic richness and abundance indirectly impacts soil eukaryotic RNA viral communities. These results provide new insights into the collective influence of multiple environmental and community factors that shape soil RNA viral communities and offer a structured perspective of how RNA virus diversity and ecology respond to environmental changes. IMPORTANCE Climate change has been reshaping the soil environment as well as the residing microbiome. This study provides field-relevant information on how environmental and community factors collectively shape soil RNA communities and contribute to ecological understanding of RNA viral survival under various environmental conditions and virus-host interactions in soil. This knowledge is critical for predicting the viral responses to climate change and the potential emergence of biothreats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Diverging drivers of fungal diversity: seasonal effects shape aboveground communities, while geographical patterns govern belowground communities in rubber tree ecosystems

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of microbial communities is essential for predicting their ecological roles and interactions with host plants. In a recent study, Wei and colleagues (Microbiol Spectr 13:e02097-24, 2024) investigated fungal diversity across multiple plant and soil compartments in rubber trees over two seasons and two geographically distinct regions in China. Their findings revealed that alpha diversity was primarily influenced by seasonal changes and physicochemical factors, while beta diversity exhibited a strong geographical pattern, shaped by leaf phosphorus and soil available potassium. These results highlight the role of environmental drivers in shaping within-community diversity, while other factors contribute to the differences between fungal communities across the soil–plant continuum. By distinguishing the effects of temporal and spatial factors, this study provides detailed insights into plant-associated microbiomes and emphasizes the need for further research on the functional implications of microbial diversity in the context of changing environmental and agricultural conditions.

fungal diversity↗

Understanding GPU Memory Corruption at Extreme Scale: The Summit Case Study

GPU memory corruption and in particular double-bit errors (DBEs) remain one of the least understood aspects of HPC system reliability. Albeit rare, their occurrences always lead to job termination and can potentially cost thousands of node-hours, either from wasted computations or as the overhead from regular checkpointing needed to minimize the losses. As supercomputers and their components simultaneously grow in scale, density, failure rates, and environmental footprint, the efficiency of HPC operations becomes both an imperative and a challenge. We examine DBEs using system telemetry data and logs collected from the Summit supercomputer, equipped with 27,648 Tesla V100 GPUs with 2nd-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM2). Using exploratory data analysis and statistical learning, we extract several insights about memory reliability in such GPUs. We find that GPUs with prior DBE occurrences are prone to experience them again due to otherwise harmless factors, correlate this phenomenon with GPU placement, and suggest manufacturing variability as a factor. On the general population of GPUs, we link DBEs to short- and long-term high power consumption modes while finding no significant correlation with higher temperatures. We also show that the workload type can be a factor in memory’s propensity to corruption.

Oles, Vlad↗

A graphics processing unit accelerated sparse direct solver and preconditioner with block low rank compression

We present the GPU implementation efforts and challenges of the sparse solver package STRUMPACK. The code is made publicly available on github with a permissive BSD license. STRUMPACK implements an approximate multifrontal solver, a sparse LU factorization which makes use of compression methods to accelerate time to solution and reduce memory usage. Multiple compression schemes based on rank-structured and hierarchical matrix approximations are supported, including hierarchically semi-separable, hierarchically off-diagonal butterfly, and block low rank. Here, in this paper, we present the GPU implementation of the block low rank (BLR) compression method within a multifrontal solver. Our GPU implementation relies on highly optimized vendor libraries such as cuBLAS and cuSOLVER for NVIDIA GPUs, rocBLAS and rocSOLVER for AMD GPUs and the Intel oneAPI Math Kernel Library (oneMKL) for Intel GPUs. Additionally, we rely on external open source libraries such as SLATE (Software for Linear Algebra Targeting Exascale), MAGMA (Matrix Algebra on GPU and Multi-core Architectures), and KBLAS (KAUST BLAS). SLATE is used as a GPU-capable ScaLAPACK replacement. From MAGMA we use variable sized batched dense linear algebra operations such as GEMM, TRSM and LU with partial pivoting. KBLAS provides efficient (batched) low rank matrix compression for NVIDIA GPUs using an adaptive randomized sampling scheme. The resulting sparse solver and preconditioner runs on NVIDIA, AMD and Intel GPUs. Interfaces are available from PETSc, Trilinos and MFEM, or the solver can be used directly in user code. We report results for a range of benchmark applications, using the Perlmutter system from NERSC, Frontier from ORNL, and Aurora from ALCF. For a high frequency wave equation on a regular mesh, using 32 Perlmutter compute nodes, the factorization phase of the exact GPU solver is about 6.5× faster compared to the CPU-only solver. The BLR-enabled GPU solver is about 13.8× faster than the CPU exact solver. For a collection of SuiteSparse matrices, the STRUMPACK exact factorization on a single GPU is on average 1.9× faster than NVIDIA’s cuDSS solver.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Identifying spatiotemporal patterns in opioid vulnerability: investigating the links between disability, prescription opioids and opioid-related mortality

Background: The opioid crisis remains one of the most daunting and complex public health problems in the United States. This study investigates the national epidemic by analyzing vulnerability profiles of three key factors: opioid-related mortality rates, opioid prescription dispensing rates, and disability rank ordered rates. Methods: This study utilizes county level data, spanning the years 2014 through 2020, on the rates of opioid-related mortality, opioid prescription dispensing, and disability. To successfully estimate and predict trends in these opioid-related factors, we augment the Kalman Filter with a novel spatial component. To define opioid vulnerability profiles, we create heat maps of our filter’s predicted rates across the nation’s counties and identify the hotspots. In this context, hotspots are defined on a year-by-year basis as counties with rates in the top 5% nationally. Results: Our spatial Kalman filter demonstrates strong predictive performance. From 2014 to 2018, these predictions highlight consistent spatiotemporal patterns across all three factors, with Appalachia distinguished as the nation’s most vulnerable region. Starting in 2019 however, the dispensing rate profiles undergo a dramatic and chaotic shift. Conclusions: The initial primary drivers of opioid abuse in the Appalachian region were likely prescription opioids; however, it now appears that abuse is sustained by illegal drugs. Additionally, we find that the disabled subpopulation may be more at risk of opioid-related mortality than the general population. Public health initiatives must extend beyond controlling prescription practices to address the transition to and impact of illicit drug use.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗