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At least 595 records · Page 33

Intermittent Frontogenesis in the Alboran Sea

Abstract We present a phenomenological description and dynamical analysis of the Alboran fronts using a realistic simulation at submesoscale resolution. The study is focused on east Alboran fronts emerging within relatively strong flows that separate from the Spanish coast into the basin interior. Despite modest lateral shifting associated with the position of the Alboran anticyclonic gyres and variations in intensity, these fronts present a similar structure and dynamical configuration as the climatological Almeria–Oran front. The statistical analysis of our solution shows that strained-induced frontogenesis is a recurrent submesoscale mechanism associated with these fronts, and the process is assessed in terms of the advective Lagrangian frontogenetic tendencies associated with buoyancy and velocity horizontal gradients. Intermittency in their strength and patterns is indicative of high variability in the occurrence of active frontogenesis in association with the secondary (overturning) circulation across the frontal gradient. As a result, we find many episodes with strong surface fronts that do not have much associated downwelling. Frontogenesis and the associated secondary circulation are further explored during two particular frontal events, both showing strong downwelling of (1) cm s −1 extending down into the pycnocline. A frontogenetic contribution of turbulent vertical momentum mixing to the secondary circulation is identified in the easternmost region during the cold season, when the dynamics are strongly influenced by the intrusion of the salty Northern Current. The background vertical velocity fields observed during the analyzed events indicate other currents in the submesoscale range, including tidal and topographic internal waves.

Capó, Esther↗

A New Paradigm for Observing and Modeling of Air-Sea Interactions to Advance Earth System Prediction

The protection of people, property, and environmental resources from extreme weather, seasonal patterns, and climate change drives the need for predictions of weather, ocean, and climate patterns that have skill and value at timescales longer than traditional 1-10-day forecasts, including outlooks spanning weeks to decades. Advancing Earth System Prediction (ESP) skill at this range of timescales requires improved observations, understanding, and modeling of the processes in the ocean boundary layer, the atmospheric boundary layer, and their interface. A new way of referring to this coupled system is the Air-Sea Transition Zone (ASTZ). The report that follows is framed by the paradigm that the ASTZ is a single entity that regulates the flow of energy and matter between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ASTZ is thus the medium through which the ocean and atmosphere respond to and influence one another across their often disparate scales of variability. ASTZ modeling, observing, and understanding needs are particularly acute because very few measurements exist over oceans, and even fewer span the entire ASTZ, even though oceans cover 70% of Earth’s surface and are the source of most of the rain and snow that falls on both the land and the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Real-Time Partitioning of Diurnal Stem CO 2 Efflux into Local Stem Respiration and Xylem Transport Processes

The apparent respiratory quotient (ARQ) of tree stems, defined as the ratio of net stem CO 2 efflux (E S_CO2 ) to net stem O 2 influx (E S_O2 ), offers insights into the balance between local respiratory CO 2 production and CO 2 transported via the xylem. Traditional static chamber methods for measuring ARQ can introduce artifacts and obscure natural diurnal variations. Here, we employed an open flow-through stem chamber with ambient air coupled with cavity ring-down spectrometry, which uses the molecular properties of CO 2 and O 2 molecules to continuously measure E S_CO2 , E S_O2 , and ARQ, at the base of a California cherry tree (Prunus ilicifolia) during the 2024 growing season. Measurements across three stem chambers over 3–11-day periods revealed strong correlations between E S_CO2 and E S_O2 and mean ARQ values ranging from 1.3 to 2.9, far exceeding previous reports. Two distinct diurnal ARQ patterns were observed: daytime suppression with nighttime recovery, and a morning peak followed by gradual decline. Partitioning E S_CO2 into local respiration and xylem-transported CO 2 indicated that the latter can dominate when ARQ exceeds 2.0. Furthermore, transported CO 2 exhibited a higher temperature sensitivity than local respiration, with both processes showing declining temperature sensitivity above 20 °C. These findings underscore the need to differentiate stem CO 2 flux components to improve our understanding of whole-tree carbon cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Updraft Modeling Bias Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) habitats may overlap with wind energy development in some regions of the US. Eagles, and similar soaring bird species, are therefore at risk of collision with wind turbines when flying through wind farms. Recently developed behavioral modeling approaches can predict the presence of eagles near turbines within the rotor-swept layer but require reliable prediction of atmospheric flowfield conditions. In particular, the vertical component of the wind speed dictates a soaring bird's ability to maintain or gain altitude, since they rely on updrafts to subsidize their flight. In this work, we investigate the atmospheric conditions around a wind farm in complex terrain and compare methods for atmospheric characterization. We use computational fluid dynamics (specifically, large-eddy simulations, or LES) to simulate the atmospheric boundary layer over a region encompassing multiple wind farms with high temporal and spatial resolution (seconds and 10's of meters, respectively). We compare traditional non-simulation-based methods of determining the orographic updraft potential based on wind direction, terrain slope and aspect, with the flowfields from LES that include both orographic updrafts alone and combined thermal and orographic updrafts. Preliminary analysis suggests that although the model captures the horizontal pattern of vertical updrafts, their magnitude can be improved with information about the surface heat flux, which is usually correlated with time of the day. Within our study region, we found that the low-fidelity model may over- or underestimate updraft potential by up to 400% at 80 m AGL, depending on local orographic features. This can result in an inaccurate representation of eagle presence and, consequently, risk. Another important finding is that flowfield time-averaging can hide important details about the flight environment, including how thermally generated flow structures within the atmospheric boundary layer (e.g., convective rolls and/or cells) may be important drivers of eagle flight.

atmospheric turbulence↗

Numerical Analysis of Offshore Wind-Farm-Induced Drag Effects on Coastal Upwelling Dynamics

Wind farms extract momentum from the atmospheric flow, generating wind-speed deficits both within the plant, and extending downstream. When located offshore, these deficits modulate air-sea coupling, potentially impacting coastal upwelling in sensitive regions. We investigate impacts of wind farms on coastal upwelling using kilometre-scale, three-way-coupled simulations with the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport system for the US West Coast. Wind-farm effects are represented by a generalised turbine drag formulation, an idealised, height-dependent body force whose magnitude is systematically varied. This approach isolates the leading-order fluid-dynamical response in a realistic coastal configuration. The atmospheric adjustment exhibits an approximately linear relation between drag force and wind-speed deficit, with wakes that expand downstream and increase in magnitude as drag increases. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of sea-surface-temperature anomalies reveals the emergence of a canonical dipole pattern under strong drag forcing. Subsurface diagnostics show consistent shoaling of the mixed layer and suppressed upward velocities in areas near wind-farm region, accompanied by compensating enhancements of shoaling closer to the coast. These results identify turbine drag as a control parameter in assessing interactions between wind-farm wake and coastal upwelling and provide scaling relationships for understanding offshore wind-farm effects on the coastal circulation dynamics.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Morphology, Deformations, and Photocatalytic Activity of Thermally Treated Brookite Titanium Dioxide Thin Films

Metastable states, in which the coupling between long-range lattice deformations and electronic properties can be controlled, provide a pathway to tailoring the behavior of photocatalytic materials by directing the flow of photoinduced charge carriers. Brookite is a metastable polymorph of earth-abundant TiO 2 that exhibits photocatalytic function and, due to its high energy relative to the anatase and rutile polymorphs, may serve as a precursor for the formation of transitional metastable structures. In this work, facile thermal annealing is employed to promote the formation of predominantly brookite-phase films, regulate the brookite lattice distortions, and determine the effect of these distortions on charge separation, ultimately directed at enhancing photocatalytic activity. Profile fitting of X-ray diffraction patterns and peak shifts in Raman spectra revealed structural distortions of the brookite lattice. Structural defects, including lattice gliding, dislocations, stacking faults, and twin boundaries, were observed using scanning transmission electron microscopy. First-principles simulations reveal how the lattice distortions associated with stacking faults induce band bending, thus increasing the photocatalytic activity of brookite. In conclusion, this study provides insight into the microstructural tuning of metastable phases to enhance their unique functionalities.

band bending↗

Deconvoluting thermomechanical effects in X-ray diffraction data using machine learning

X-ray diffraction is ideal for probing the sub-surface state during complex or rapid thermomechanical loading of crystalline materials. However, challenges arise as the size of diffraction volumes increases due to spatial broadening and because of the inability to deconvolute the effects of different lattice deformation mechanisms. Here, we present a novel approach that uses combinations of physics-based modeling and machine learning to deconvolve thermal and mechanical elastic strains for diffraction data analysis. The method builds on a previous effort to extract thermal strain distribution information from diffraction data. The new approach is applied to extract the evolution of the thermomechanical state during laser melting of an Inconel 625 wall specimen which produces significant residual stress upon cooling. A combination of heat transfer and fluid flow, elasto-plasticity and X-ray diffraction simulations is used to generate training data for machine-learning (Gaussian process regression, GPR) models that map diffracted intensity distributions to underlying thermomechanical strain fields. First-principles density functional theory is used to determine accurate temperature-dependent thermal expansion and elastic stiffness used for elasto-plasticity modeling. The trained GPR models are found to be capable of deconvoluting the effects of thermal and mechanical strains, in addition to providing information about underlying strain distributions, even from complex diffraction patterns with irregularly shaped peaks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

From Edge to HPC: Investigating Cross-Facility Data Streaming Architectures

In this paper, we investigate three cross-facility data streaming architectures, Direct Streaming (DTS), Proxied Streaming (PRS), and Managed Service Streaming (MSS). We examine their architectural variations in data flow paths and deployment feasibility, and detail their implementation using the Data Streaming to HPC (DS2HPC) architectural framework and the SciStream memory-to-memory streaming toolkit on the production-grade Advanced Computing Ecosystem (ACE) infrastructure at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). We present a workflow-specific evaluation of these architectures using three synthetic workloads derived from the streaming characteristics of scientific workflows. Through simulated experiments, we measure streaming throughput, round-trip time, and overhead under work sharing, work sharing with feedback, and broadcast and gather messaging patterns commonly found in AI-HPC communication motifs. Our study shows that DTS offers a minimal-hop path, resulting in higher throughput and lower latency, whereas MSS provides greater deployment feasibility and scalability across multiple users but incurs significant overhead. PRS lies in between, offering a scalable architecture whose performance matches DTS in most cases.

George, Anjus [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000179737061)↗

Communication systems and methods for authenticating data packets within network flow

A communication system includes a first quantum key distribution device and an intermediary device. The first quantum key distribution device is configured to be coupled to a second quantum key distribution device over a quantum channel and to generate a shared key with the second quantum key distribution device based on a quantum state transmitted along the quantum channel. The intermediary device is disposed along a communication pathway within a network between a sender device and a receiver device. The intermediary device is communicatively connected to the first quantum key distribution device and configured to utilize the shared key to authenticate one or more data packets communicated from the sender device along the communication pathway by examining the one or more data packets for a presence of an information pattern that is associated with the shared key.

Bush, Stephen Francis↗

Deconvoluting sources of variability in aerosol jet printing using light scattering measurements

Aerosol jet printing (AJP) is a digital additive manufacturing technique for hybrid and conformal electronics, where its contactless deposition readily enables patterning over 3D surface topography. However, the complexity of aerosol transport physics makes deposition rate sensitive to process variability, hindering widespread industry adoption. Light scattering measurements have recently been demonstrated as a capable tool for measuring deposition rate in real time, enabling closed-loop control and in-situ qualification frameworks. These inline optical measurements present further opportunity as a diagnostic tool to understand the effects of secondary process parameters affecting vapor–liquid equilibrium and heat and mass transport during deposition. Downstream of the optical measurement cell, changing the sheath gas flow rate, increasing temperature via an inline heater, and adding solvent vapor via a sheath gas bubbler were observed to alter drying physics during sheath-collimation, and thereby impaction efficiency. Further upstream, the introduction of solvent vapor via a carrier gas bubbler and liquid build-up in the printhead were seen to affect the quantitative relationship between the light scattering data and the true deposition rate. Using this information, tightened controls of meaningful secondary parameters were implemented to improve the batch-to-batch consistency for printing a dielectric ink. In addition to advancing AJP process reliability for production, this work demonstrates the capability of inline optical measurements to provide insight into process physics and deconvolute competing mechanisms that underly variability.

additive manufacturing↗

Closed-Loop Control of Active Nematic Flows

Stabilizing and shaping autonomous flows of active fluids is a fundamental challenge and a prerequisite for applications. We embed a light-responsive microtubule-based nematic in a proportional-integral control loop that adjusts the applied light intensity in response to real-time measurements of the spatially averaged flow speed. The self-regulating hardware-software-wetware system maintains a target flow speed against external or internal perturbations, including protein aging and aggregation, sample-to-sample variability, and temperature variation. Varying the controller’s gains reveals antagonistic roles between feedback and intrinsic processes, leading to nontrivial dynamics observed in fluctuation spectra. In particular, oscillations emerge from the interplay between the controller, motor binding kinetics, and active hydrodynamic relaxation. Accounting for the underlying binding timescale, our coarse-grained model and nematohydrodynamics simulations corroborate these observations. This work provides insight into the coupled dynamics of controlled active matter, laying the foundation for spatiotemporal patterning of active stress to generate and stabilize new dynamical configurations.

Active nematics↗

Transition Core Planning and Safety Analyses in Support of LEU Fuel Conversion of the University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR)

The University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR®) is one of six U.S. High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR), including one critical facility, that is working with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) Reactor Conversion Program to convert from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. The M3 Reactor Conversion USHPRR Project objectives include the development of LEU fuel element designs that will ensure safe reactor operations and to maintain the existing experimental performance of each facility. The work is being conducted through many inter-related activities being completed by four Project Pillars: Fuel Qualification (FQ), Fuel Fabrication (FF), Reactor Conversion (RC), and Cross Cutting (CC). A new type of LEU fuel based on an alloy of uranium-10 wt% molybdenum (U-10Mo) is expected to allow the conversion of those USHPRR, like MURR, requiring higher density fuels. The very-high-density LEU U-10Mo monolithic fuel is currently undergoing irradiation testing and post-irradiation examination under a planned and documented fuel qualification effort. The FQ Pillar will document fuel property and fuel performance data and qualify the fuel for use in these reactors. The FF Pillar is fabricating fuel for ongoing and future irradiation tests, as well as conducting fabrication demonstrations to validate or update preliminary fabrication assumptions. The FF Pillar is also working to develop and install commercial manufacturing capacity with the U-10Mo monolithic fuel to produce prototypic fuel. Working with the RC Pillar at Argonne, MURR has progressed through a preliminary fuel element design using preliminary data for the proposed monolithic alloy of U-10Mo. Analyses were completed in previous work that found for typical equilibrium operations with the preliminary LEU fuel element design, in conjunction with a power uprate to 12 MW and appropriate changes to the MURR Limiting safety system settings (LSSS), MURR will have adequate margins to safety for steady-state operations and postulated transient accidents and will have experimental performance in key locations that meets or exceeds current operations with HEU fuel. The purpose of this work is to develop a sequence of transition cycles that will enable MURR to transition from operation with the reactor core loaded with fresh LEU fuel elements only to typical equilibrium operations with mixed-burnup cores following conversion while meeting operational requirements on safety and experimental performance. It is expected that the use of fresh LEU fuel at conversion and subsequent low burnup of the LEU fuel elements that will initially be available for use following conversion will result in critical control blade positions that will substantially change the axial power distribution in the core and the neutron flux available in key experimental locations relative to equilibrium LEU operations. Given the constraints of MURR safety margins, operational practices, and production and research, a novel method has been developed to identify a transition sequence that minimizes the time MURR operates atypically compared to the current prototypic cycles using HEU fuel. The proposed transition sequence moves quickly to the same sort of equilibrium cycles for the LEU fuel that have already been evaluated in documented preliminary safety analyses. Although shifting the neutron flux peak to the lower half of the core during initial cycles with LEU at 12 MW reduces the experiment performance in some key locations relative to current HEU operations at 10 MW, all LEU cores provide an average performance that meets or exceeds that of HEU. An LEU cycle is reached that meets or exceeds the level of experimental performance predicted for current HEU and equilibrium LEU operations in more than 450 key locations identified by a reactor specialist at MURR by the 23rd cycle following conversion and that afterwards will enable MURR to consistently meet its experimental performance requirements. The proposed transition sequence only requires the fabrication of 34 fresh LEU elements in the first year of operation and does not exceed the anticipated availability of fresh elements that can be produced by the fuel fabricator. By the third year after conversion, 22 fresh LEU elements will be required each year, which is the same as expected for equilibrium LEU operations and the same as current operations with HEU fuel. The proposed transition sequence thus combines a relatively short time period before equilibrium burnup is achieved, a temporary increase of fuel elements needed annually relative to typical operations that are within the production capabilities of the fuel fabricator, and demonstrates comparable experimental performance of the LEU cores relative to current HEU operations. Further measures may be taken to reduce any initial experimental performance penalty even further, where possible, by repositioning certain experiments to leverage the increased performance in the lower axial experimental positions in the initial cycles following conversion or leaving the experiments in the irradiation facilities longer in order to achieve the required neutron fluence. This analysis may require refinement depending on the experimental facilities in use at the time of conversion. Nonetheless, the results presented here, including the experimental performance, core burnup, and critical control blade positions throughout the transition cycles, show that the proposed transition cycle fuel management patterns are consistent with what is expected and desired for MURR operation with LEU U-10Mo fuel. Detailed core power distributions from the neutronics models were also used to evaluate safety margins during steady-state operations for the selected transition cycles and the equilibrium LEU core. It is shown that there are adequate safety margins for both steady-state operations and postulated accident scenarios. For the steady-state operations with the preliminary LEU fuel element design the analysis predicts at least 2.49 MW margin to the onset of flow instability at the LSSS power of 15 MW. Considering the LSSS power is 125% of full license power, the margin to OFI is sufficient. In addition, the critical heat flux ratio at LSSS power is well above the requirement of CHFR > 2.0 from NUREG-1537 for all considered cases. For postulated transient accidents, the minimum margin to the fuel temperature safety limit is at least 109 °C. In summary, the proposed sequence of core loadings for MURR operations following conversion to LEU fuel and a power uprate to 12 MW provides sufficient safety margins for both steady-state operations and postulated transient accidents during a proposed sequence of transition cycles to equilibrium operations. Analysis has shown that there are some local experimental performance penalties during the initial cycles. Although there are local shifts in the experimental performance, on average all LEU cores at 12 MW have equal or higher performance than HEU at 10 MW. Temporary adjustments are being planned that will produce suitable experimental performance during these cycles. The results indicate that for the equilibrium LEU core the experimental performance exceeds that of current HEU operations in all key locations while also demonstrating sufficient safety margins.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Closed-loop control of active nematic flows

Stabilizing and shaping autonomous flows of active fluids is a fundamental challenge and a prerequisite for applications. We embed a light-responsive microtubule-based nematic in a proportional-integral control loop that adjusts the applied light intensity in response to real-time measurements of the spatially averaged flow speed. The self-regulating hardware/software/wetware system maintains a target flow speed against external or internal perturbations, including protein aging and aggregation, sample-to-sample variability, and temperature variation. Varying the controller’s gains reveals antagonistic roles between feedback and intrinsic processes, leading to nontrivial dynamics observed in fluctuation spectra. In particular, oscillations emerge from the interplay between the controller, motor binding kinetics, and active hydrodynamic relaxation. Accounting for the underlying binding timescale, our coarse-grained model and nematohydrodynamics simulations corroborate these observations. This work provides insight into the coupled dynamics of controlled active matter, laying the foundation for spatiotemporal patterning of active stress to generate and stabilize new dynamical configurations.

Nishiyama, Katsu [Brandeis Univ., Waltham, MA (Uni↗

A Review of Abrupt Permafrost Thaw: Definitions, Usage, and a Proposed Conceptual Framework

Purpose of ReviewWe review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science.Recent FindingsWe address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire.SummaryPermafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term ‘abrupt thaw’ has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making.

Webb, Hailey↗

Impacts of Mixed-Wettability on Brine Drainage and Supercritical CO 2 Storage Efficiency in a 2.5-D Heterogeneous Micromodel

Geological carbon storage (GCS) involves unstable drainage processes, the formation of patterns in a morphologically unstable interface between two fluids in a porous medium during drainage. The unstable drainage processes affect CO 2 storage efficiency and plume distribution and can be greatly complicated by the mixed-wet nature of rock surfaces common in hydrocarbon reservoirs where supercritical CO 2 (scCO 2 ) is used in enhanced oil recovery. Here, we performed scCO 2 injection (brine drainage) experiments at 8.5 MPa and 45°C in heterogeneous micromodels, two mixed-wet with varying water- and intermediate-wet patches, and one water-wet. The flow regime changes from capillary fingering through crossover to viscous fingering in the micromodels of the same pore geometry but different wetting surfaces at displacement rates with logCa (capillary number) increasing from –8.1 to –4.4. While the mixed-wet micromodel with uniformly distributed intermediate-wet patches yields ~0.15 scCO 2 saturation increase at both capillary fingering and crossover flow regimes (–8.1 ≤ logCa ≤ –6.1), the one heterogeneous wetting to scCO 2 results in ~0.09 saturation increase only at the crossover flow regime (–7.1 ≤ logCa ≤ –6.1). The interconnected flow paths in the former are quantified and compared to the channelized scCO 2 flow through intermediate-wet patches in the latter by topological analysis. At logCa > –6.1 (near well), the effects of wettability and pore geometry are suppressed by strong viscous force. Both scCO 2 saturation and distribution suggest the importance of wettability on CO 2 storage efficiency and plume shape in reservoirs and capillary leakage through caprock at GCS conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Generation of shear flows induced by AE / EPM in LHD plasma

The generation of shear flows (SFs) by Alfven Eigenmodes (AEs) and energetic particle modes (EPMs) have important effects on the operation of future nuclear fusion reactors, because SFs regulate the saturation of the AEs/EPMs, the transport of EPs and thermal plasma, as well as the formation of transport barriers among other consequences. The aim of this study is the analysis of SFs generation during the saturation phase of AEs and EPMs in LHD plasma. Experiments performed in the 23rd and 24th LHD experimental campaigns are dedicated to explore the destabilization of AEs/EPMs in discharges with different heating patterns, thermal plasma and magnetic field configurations. In particular, the shots 176490 and 179697 show the destabilization of MHD bursts and energetic-ion-driven resistive interchange modes (EIC), respectively. Charge exchange spectroscopy measurements in both discharges indicate that the generation of SFs by AE/EPM is uncorrelated with the perturbation induced by the neutral beam injector (NBI). Nonlinear simulations performed using the gyro-fluid code FAR3d show the generation of zonal structures, especially SFs, induced during the saturation phase of Toroidal Alfven Eigenmodes (TAEs) triggered in the MHD burst as well as by the 1/1 EIC in the bursting phase. The simulations indicate that SFs are caused by the radial electric fields powered by energy transfers from the unstable AE/EPM towards the thermal plasma. The strongest SFs are measured during the EIC bursting phase once the 1/1 EPM overlaps with nearby resonances at the plasma periphery. Likewise, the largest SFs during the MHD burst are observed once TAEs radially overlap in the inner-middle plasma region.

AE↗

The age distribution of global soil carbon inferred from radiocarbon measurements

Soils contain more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined. An increased flow of carbon from the atmosphere into soil pools could help mitigate anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and climate change. Yet we do not know how quickly soils might respond because the age distribution of soil carbon is uncertain. Here we used 789 radiocarbon (Δ 14 C) profiles, along with other geospatial information, to create globally gridded datasets of mineral soil Δ 14 C and mean age. We found that soil depth is a primary driver of Δ 14 C, whereas climate (for example, mean annual temperature) is a major control on the spatial pattern of Δ 14 C in surface soil. Integrated to a depth of 1m, global soil carbon has a mean age of 4,830 ± 1,730 yr, with older carbon in deeper layers and permafrost regions. In contrast, vertically resolved land models simulate Δ 14 C values that imply younger carbon ages and a more rapid carbon turnover. Overall, our data-derived estimates of older mean soil carbon age suggest that soils will accumulate less carbon than predicted by current Earth system models over the twenty-first century. Reconciling these models with the global distribution of soil radiocarbon will require a better representation of the mechanisms that control carbon persistence in soils.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗