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At least 595 records · Page 33

Description and Evaluation of a New Deep Convective Cloud Model Considering In-cloud Inhomogeneity

Convections still need to be parameterized in general circulation models (GCMs) in the coming decades. Performances of GCMs are significantly influenced by the convection schemes used. In contrast to most conventional cloud models that ignore in-cloud inhomogeneities, a new convective cloud model explicitly considering in-cloud inhomogeneities is developed. The new model adopts a single bulk plume approach, but divides the plume into a series of interacting sub-plumes in order to mimic the transition from the plume core to its edges. We implemented the new cloud model in NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.0 (CAM5) and evaluated its performance. Single-column tests show a stronger mass flux profile and low-level detrainment with the new model. In global simulations, the long-lasting wet bias in the tropical free troposphere of CAM5 is alleviated. Spatial pattern and intensity distribution of precipitation is improved, but the global hydrological cycle is slightly over-enhanced. The diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation is also better captured though the precipitation peak still occurs earlier than the observations and the amplitude of the cycle tends to weaken. MJO simulation is slightly improved with the new scheme. In addition, the new cloud model generated more tropical cyclones, in better agreement with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model User's Guide

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) General Circulation Model (GCM) makes use of the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) to enable model configurations with many functions. One of the options of the GEOS-5 GCM is the GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model (GEOS-5 CTM), which is an offline simulation of chemistry and constituent transport driven by a specified meteorology and other model output fields. This document describes the basic components of the GEOS-5 CTM, and is a user's guide on to how to obtain and run simulations on the NCCS Discover platform. In addition, we provide information on how to change the model configuration input files to meet users' needs.

GCM↗

A simulation of the winter and summer circulations with the NMC Global Spectral Model

The medium range forecast model of the NMC has been integrated to produce winter and summer simulations. It is found that the model climatology is similar to that of the observed atmosphere as well as climatologies of other general circulation models. The stationary and transient features of the model circulation are described, including both tropical and extratropical regions. The model hydrological cycle, radiative balance, and surface heat budget are discussed. Comparison with observations shows that the model is colder than that observed in the troposphere and cools in the lower stratosphere in the tropics and near the poles in both simulations. It is suggested that the upper branch of the Hadley cell is poorly simulated in the integrated model. The simulations are in reasonable agreement with the observations in sea level pressure, the structure of the tropospheric zonal jets, and the winter hemispheric stationary waves.

Kinter, J. L., III↗

Climate model postprocessing

The development of new postprocessing software of the climate modeling group is summarized. Code, test, and perform simulations with global general circulation models are described. The models improve understanding and ability to predict the vagaries of weather and climate. To learn from and utilize the model results, it is necessary to create elaborate postprocessing software to allow analysis of the large volume of data produced. The models produce sigma history tapes. The sigma history records are interpolated to pressure history records, which are written on a pressure history tape. The model results are analyzed on pressure surfaces, with snap shots or time averages.

Abeles, J.↗

Prescription of land-surface boundary conditions in GISS GCM 2: A simple method based on high-resolution vegetation data bases

A simple method was developed for improved prescription of seasonal surface characteristics and parameterization of land-surface processes in climate models. This method, developed for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II (GISS GCM II), maintains the spatial variability of fine-resolution land-cover data while restricting to 8 the number of vegetation types handled in the model. This was achieved by: redefining the large number of vegetation classes in the 1 deg x 1 deg resolution Matthews (1983) vegetation data base as percentages of 8 simple types; deriving roughness length, field capacity, masking depth and seasonal, spectral reflectivity for the 8 types; and aggregating these surface features from the 1 deg x 1 deg resolution to coarser model resolutions, e.g., 8 deg latitude x 10 deg longitude or 4 deg latitude x 5 deg longitude.

Matthews, E.↗

Origin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

A climate model resolving the seasonal cycle and the two horizontal dimensions was developed and applied to several problems of current interest. Models of this type are useful when for various reasons a general circulation model experiment is not warranted or not feasible. For example, in cases where the signal to natural variability is small it may be advantageous to first consider such a statistical dynamical model because extremely long runs may be necessary in the application. In this case the simpler statistical dynamical model serves as a pilot study device. The model developed is a thermodynamic model whose solution yields the equilibrium seasonal cycle for the surface temperature field over the globe. The model is essentially a statement of the conservation of heat energy for individual columns of the earth atmosphere system. Various terms such as the infrared radiation flux to space are parameterized with earth radiation budget data from satellites such as Nimbus 6. The primary agent modulating the seasonal cycle amplitude is the heat capacity per unit area which is a strong function of surface type -- ocean surface can store 60 times more heat per unit time than land. By adjusting its few empirical parameters the model can be brought into remarkable agreement with the observed seasonal cycle. The model is then very useful for looking at the dependence of the seasonal cycle of the temperature on such externally defined variables as the Earth's orbital elements (eccentricity, tilt, precession of equinoxes) or the configuration of land-sea geography which can be changed by continental drift.

North, G. R.↗

Ionosphere-thermosphere momentum coupling at solar maximum and solar minimum from DE-2 and AE-C data

DE-2 and AE-C measurements of plasma and neutral densities were used to derive time constants for momentum transfer (MT) to neutrals from ions in the high-latitude thermosphere. The MT time constants for solar cycle maximum (DE-2) and for solar cycle minimum (AE-C) were averaged and binned according to geomagnetic latitude and LT to provide a quantitative measure for the tightness of ion-neutral momentum coupling (MC) in the 250-350-km altitude range. Comparisons with results obtained using the Chiu and MSIS-83 empirical models have provided an indication of the accuracy with which thermospheric general circulation models quantitatively reproduce the MC between ions and neutrals in the high-latitude F-region.

Ponthieu, J. J.↗

Stratospheric chemistry and transport

A Chemical Tracer Model (CTM) that can use wind field data generated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) is developed to implement chemistry in the three dimensional GCM of the middle atmosphere. Initially, chemical tracers with simple first order losses such as N2O are used. Successive models are to incorporate more complex ozone chemistry.

Prather, Michael↗

Exploring the southern ocean response to climate change

The purpose of this project was to couple a regional (Southern Ocean) ocean/sea ice model to the existing Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This modification recognizes: the relative isolation of the Southern Ocean; the need to account, prognostically, for the significant air/sea/ice interaction through all involved components; and the advantage of translating the atmospheric lower boundary (typically the rapidly changing ocean surface) to a level that is consistent with the physical response times governing the system evolution (that is, to the base of the fast responding ocean surface layer). The deeper ocean beneath this layer varies on time scales several orders of magnitude slower than the atmosphere and surface ocean, and therefore the boundary between the upper and deep ocean represents a more reasonable fixed boundary condition.

Martinson, Douglas G.↗

The impact of a 2 X CO2 climate on lightning-caused fires

Future climate change could have significant repercussions for lightning-caused wildfires. Two empirical fire models are presented relating the frequency of lightning fires and the area burned by these fires to the effective precipitation and the frequency of thunderstorm activity. One model deals with the seasonal variations in lightning fires, while the second model deals with the interannual variations of lightning fires. These fire models are then used with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model to investigate possible changes in fire frequency and area burned in a 2 X CO2 climate. In the United States, the annual mean number of lightning fires increases by 44%, while the area burned increases by 78%. On a global scale, the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in untouched tropical ecosystems where few natural fires occur today.

Price, Colin↗

Impacts and environmental catastrophes: A study of the effects of impact events on the climate system

The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.

Pierazzo, E.↗

The Sensitivity of Arctic Ozone Loss to Polar Stratospheric Cloud Volume and Chlorine and Bromine Loading in a Chemistry and Transport Model

The sensitivity of Arctic ozone loss to polar stratospheric cloud volume (V(sub PSC)) and chlorine and bromine loading is explored using chemistry and transport models (CTMs). A simulation using multi-decadal output from a general circulation model (GCM) in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) CTM complements one recycling a single year s GCM output in the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM. Winter polar ozone loss in the GSFC CTM depends on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and polar vortex characteristics (temperatures, descent, isolation, polar stratospheric cloud amount). Polar ozone loss in the GMI CTM depends only on changes in EESC as the dynamics repeat annually. The GSFC CTM simulation reproduces a linear relationship between ozone loss and Vpsc derived from observations for 1992 - 2003 which holds for EESC within approx.85% of its maximum (approx.1990 - 2020). The GMI simulation shows that ozone loss varies linearly with EESC for constant, high V(sub PSC).

Douglass, A. R.↗

The Martian Dust Cycle: Observations and Modeling

The dust cycle is critically important for Mars' current climate system. Suspended atmospheric dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and thus greatly influences the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of dust in the Martian atmosphere can be traced back to yellow clouds telescopically observed as early as the early 19th century. The Mariner 9 orbiter arrived at Mars in November of 1971 to find a planet completely enshrouded in airborne dust. Since that time, the exchange of dust between the planet's surface and atmosphere and the role of airborne dust on Mars' weather and climate has been studied using observations and numerical models. The goal of this talk is to give an overview of the observations and to discuss the successes and challenges associated with modeling the dust cycle. Dust raising events on Mars range in size from meters to hundreds of kilometers. During some years, regional storms merge to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by tens of kelvin. The interannual variability of planet encircling dust storms is poorly understood. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. A low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading are generally observed: one peak occurs before northern winter solstice and one peak occurs after northern winter solstice. Numerical modeling studies attempting to interactively simulate the Martian dust cycle with general circulation models (GCMs) include the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Two dust lifting processes are commonly represented in these models: wind-stress lifting (i.e., saltation) and dust devil lifting. Although the predicted patterns of dust lifting and atmospheric dust loading from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are many notable differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. For example, it is common for models to predict one peak in global dust loading near northern winter solstice due to excessive dust lifting in the Hellas basin at this season. Additionally, it is difficult for models to realistically capture the observed interannual variability in global dust storms. New avenues of dust cycle modeling research include exploring the effects of finite surface dust reservoirs and the effects of coupling the dust and water cycles on the predicted dust cycle.

Kahre, Melinda A.↗

Evaluation of the Global Aerosol Microphysical ModelE2-TOMAS Model Against Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

The TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics model has been integrated into the state-of-the- art general circulation model, GISS ModelE2. This paper provides a detailed description of the ModelE2-TOMAS model and evaluates the model against various observations including aerosol precursor gas concentrations, aerosol mass and number concentrations, and aerosol optical depths. Additionally, global budgets in ModelE2-TOMAS are compared with those of other global aerosol models, and the ModelE2-TOMAS model is compared to the default aerosol model in ModelE2, which is a one-moment aerosol (OMA) model (i.e. no aerosol microphysics). Overall, the ModelE2- TOMAS predictions are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement (mostly within a factor of 2) with observations of sulfur species and other aerosol components as well as aerosol optical depth. However, ModelE2-TOMAS (as well as ModelE2-OMA) cannot capture the observed vertical distribution of sulfur dioxide over the Pacific Ocean, possibly due to overly strong convective transport and over-predicted precipitation. The ModelE2-TOMAS model simulates observed aerosol number concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations roughly within a factor of 2. Anthropogenic aerosol burdens in ModelE2-OMA differ from ModelE2-TOMAS by a few percent to a factor of 2 regionally, mainly due to differences in aerosol processes including deposition, cloud processing, and emission parameterizations. We observed larger differences for naturally emitted aerosols such as sea salt and mineral dust, as those emission rates are quite different due to different upper size cutoff assumptions.

Lee, Y. H.↗

Documentation of the solar radiation parameterization in the GLAS climate model

The parameterization of solar radiation in the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheric sciences (GLAS) general circulation model (GCM) is described. It explicitly considers the directional nature of the direct solar beam in treating radiative transfer within clouds, and in treating the effect of surface reflection. This is accomplished using delta Eddington and delta 2 stream models for the radiative transfer within isolated atmospheric layers, and by coupling the individual layers together by efficiently repeated applications of the interaction principle.

Davies, R.↗

Interpretation of lidar and satellite data sets using a global photochemical model

The status in the beginning of the report period was that the existing General Circulation Model (GCM) was running with a chemistry module compiled for stratospheric simulation studies. The chemistry simulation was not working sufficiently in the troposphere and any tropospheric trace gas sources or dry deposition sinks were not yet incorporated. The current status concerning the chemistry module is that the chemistry simulation has been modified to also simulate the chemistry in the troposphere with resulting mixing ratios close to other model simulations as described in Olson et al. (1996). The mechanism to incorporate trace gas source and dry deposition sinks, testing for H202, CH300H, 03, HCHO, HN03, and N02, are incorporated and is currently being tested. Existing model and development versions include: the full GCM model, currently still running with the original stratospheric chemistry module; an off-line version of the GCM, i.e. wind and photolysis rates are pre-calculated and prescribed in read-in arrays; a box model version of the modified chemistry module for developments and first tests of new modifications; and a box model with the same chemistry simulated but flexible partitioning and integration methods for test purposes of those. The grantee's work focused mainly on three areas: trace gas sources and dry deposition; method to introduce a NO source instead of a NO(x) source; and investigating integration methods.

Chyba, Thomas↗

A Comparison of the Age-Spectra from Data Assimilation Models

We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably well-isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the diabatic trajectory calculations, the age spectrum is too broad as a result of too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum determined using the kinematic trajectory calculation is less broad and lacks an age offset; both of these features are due to excessive vertical dispersion of parcels. The tropical and mid-latitude mean age difference between the diabatically and kinematically determined age-spectra is about one year, the former being older. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM's are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles, and these anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. These anomalies are suppressed in the CTM spectra suggesting that the CTM transport is too diffusive.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗