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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Utilizing 3D Mechanical Earth Models for Calibration and Validation in a Large-Scale Carbon Capture and Storage Project in North Dakota

Conference paper presented at 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-17), Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 20–24, 2024. Three-dimensional (3D) mechanical earth models (MEMs) are pivotal in assessing geological sites for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage and mitigating potential risks associated with storage and injection. The Energy & Environmental Research Center is exploring innovative carbon storage monitoring techniques at a CO 2 storage site near Beulah, North Dakota. These methods aim to provide lower-impact, faster feedback for commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. The research includes monitoring CO 2 injection using various approaches: 1) an automated, integrated modular monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance; 4) time-lapse seismic techniques; and 5) advanced wellbore monitoring.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Technology Summary L-21044 Tunnel Sensor Hydrogeology Evaluations

Illicit tunneling along the U.S. Mexican border is a persistent national security problem. Several types of sensors could be to used to detect tunnels, but the hydrogeology of the subsurface makes some technologies ineffective. This effort used available borehole and surface geology data to develop 3D hydrogeologic models, which could then provide the input for optimizing subsurface sensor technologies to detect tunnels. Depending on the specific type of sensor, the following physical properties of the subsurface are important: longitudinal speed (velocity-p), shear speed (velocity-s), acoustic attenuation, electrical permittivity, electrical conductivity, density and elastic properties. LLNL developed a procedure which uses hydrogeological datasets to determine 3D hydrogeology cross sections. The physical properties of the rocks are generally not known precisely, thus ranges of properties would need to be considered. This cross-section data can then be utilized to enhance modeling studies to optimize sensor types/systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Applications in Analyzing the Role of Shale Barriers and Baffles for CO2 Storage

This study uses machine learning to analyze microseismic data from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) and quantify CO₂ plume extents. By leveraging well logs, microseismic records, and CO₂ injection metrics, the research predicts subsurface CO₂ plume dynamics. Findings show vertical clustering of microseismic events near the injection well, with CO₂ periodically breaching barriers due to buoyancy. K-Means clustering performed best, achieving the highest Silhouette Score and lowest Davies-Bouldin Index. This capability is crucial for real-time monitoring and management of CO₂ sequestration sites, validated against physical models and IBDP data, reinforcing CO₂ geological sequestration's viability and enhancing management tools.

Carr, Timothy↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS) - Deliverable Task 7: Risk Assessment

The “Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County: Project OASIS” CarbonSAFE Phase II Project seeks to build on regional data sets that demonstrate that the subsurface within Shelby County, Alabama has the potential to store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely, permanently, and economically. The primary target CO 2 Storage Complex is the deep Ketona Dolomite located within a 140 square mile area of the Valley and Ridge Region of Alabama. This deep saline reservoir is beneath a confining system encompassing at least 6,500 ft of shales and other low permeability sediments. Project OASIS drilled a deep stratigraphic test well to confirm the geological properties of the confining system and storage reservoir(s) within the Storage Complex. The geological data was incorporated into numerical models to establish the areal extent of the CO 2 plume and help design the storage site and its monitoring system. The project is managed by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB), an interstate compact organization consisting of governors and state legislative leaders from sixteen southern states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as an appointee by the President of the United States. The organizational compact provides it with access to state government organizations and legislatures. The Board also maintains an Associate Members program comprised of energy resource companies, utilities, trade groups, academic R&D science and technology experts and energy consultants. Further, the SSEB staff is experienced in managing and coordinating complex energy and environmental programs, from research programs to full-scale design and demonstrations of new and innovative technologies. Project OASIS is a public-private partnership of six entities with multiple principal investigators (PIs). SSEB’s Lead PI and Co-PI are responsible for all aspects of project performance in accordance with the DOE-NETL Cooperative Agreement. SSEB has issued subgrants to Advanced Resources International, Inc., Alabama A&M University, Auburn University, Crescent Resource Innovation, and Oklahoma State University. Advanced Resources International, Inc., issued subgrants to Baker Hughes and Loudon Technical Services for field services

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Thermal evolution of the moon.

The thermal history and current state of the lunar interior are investigated using constraints imposed by recent geological and physical data. Theoretical temperature models are computed taking into account different initial conditions, heat sources, differentiation and simulated convection. To account for the early formation of the lunar highlands, the time duration of magmatism and present-day temperatures estimated from lunar electrical conductivity profiles, it is necessary to restrict initial temperatures and abundances of radioactive elements. Successful models require that the outer half of the moon initially heated to melting temperatures, probably due to rapid accretion. Differentiation of radioactive heat sources toward the lunar surface occurred during the first 1.6 billion years. Temperatures in the outer 500 km are currently low, while the deep interior (radius less than 700 to 1000 km) is warmer than 1000 C, and is of primordial material.

Toksoz, M. N.↗

Solar luminosity variations and the climate of Mars

Attempts to resolve the solar neutrino flux problem have led to suggestions of large scale oscillations in the solar luminosity on a geological time scale. A simple climatological model of Mars indicates that its climate may be much more sensitive to luminosity changes than the earth's because of strong positive feedback mechanisms at work on Mars. Mariner-9 photographs of Mars show an abundance of large sinuous channels that point to an epoch of higher atmospheric pressures and abundant liquid water. Such an epoch could have been the result of large-scale, solar luminosity variations. However, our climatological model suggests that other less controversial mechanisms, such as obliquity or polar albedo changes, also could have led to such an epoch. As more becomes known about Mars, it may prove possible to formulate a history of Martian climate. By discovering effects that cannot be due to other mechanisms one may be able to form a chronology of solar luminosity variations to compare with data from the earth.

Toon, O. B.↗

Origin of Valles Marineris

The purpose of the paper is to propose an origin of Valles Marineris and contiguous features such as Noctis Labyrinthus, chaotic terrain, and the large channels of Mars. These are found to: (1) be continuous to each other, (2) have gradual transition between the morphologies, (3) be related by tectonic fracturing, and associated with features of possible magmatic origin. A model is presented in which the geological process is a magmatic process, and after initial uplift and fracturing, Valles Marineris, Noctis Labyrinthus and some chaotic terrain were produced by subsidence caused by lava withdrawal.

Schonfeld, E.↗

Morphologic contrasts between Nirgal and Auqakuh Valles, Mars: Evidence of different crustal properties

Photoclinometric measurements were made of sidewall slopes in Nirgal and Auqakuh Valles and these results were interpreted in terms of the geologic setting and a simple geomorphic model to provide insights into the physical properties of crustal materials in these areas. Nirgal was interpreted to be a runoff channel and Auqakuh to be a fretted channel. Geomorphologic arguments for the sapping origin of Nirgal and Auqakuh Valles were presented. The morphologies of the channels, however, differ greatly: the tributaries of Nirgal end abruptly in theater-headed canyons, whereas the heads of tributaries of Auqakuh shallow gradually. The plateau surface surrounding both channels appears to be covered by smooth materials, presumably lava flows; they are continuous and uneroded in the Nirgal area, but at Auqakuh they are largely eroded and several layers are exposed that total about 200 m in thickness. For Nirgal Valles, the measurements show that sidewalls in the ralatively shallow upper reaches of the channel have average slopes near 30 degrees and, in the lower reaches, sidewall slopes exceed 50 degrees. Auqakuh, on the other hand, has maximum sidewall slopes of 14 degrees and an approximate maximum depth of 1000 m. Faint, horizontal layering in portions of the lower reaches of Nirgal may indicate inhomogeneity in either composition or topography.

Mackinnon, David J.↗

Kinematics at the Intersection of the Garlock and Death Valley Fault Zones, California: Integration of TM Data and Field Studies

Kinematic relationships at the intersection of the southern Death Valley and Garlock fault zones were examined to identify and delineate the eastern structural boundary between the Mojave and the Basin and Range geologic terrains, and to construct a model for the evolution of this boundary through time. In order to accomplish this, satellite imagery was combined with field investigations to study six areas in the vicinity of the intersection, or possible extensions, of the fault zones. The information gathered from these areas allows the test of various hypotheses that were proposed to explain the interaction between the Death Valley and Garlock fault zones.

Verosub, Kenneth L.↗

Geology and structure of Beta Regio, Venus - Results from Arecibo radar imaging

Arecibo radar images of a portion of the equatorial region of Venus provide the first high resolution (1.5- to 2.0-km) synoptic coverage of Beta Regio. Within this area, tessera, a complex deformed terrain, is identified as a major geologic unit with the largest region corresponding to a plateau on the east flank of the highland. Three models are proposed to explain the origin and evolution of Beta Regio and are identified as Mantle Plume/Passive Crust, Mantle Plume/Active Crust, and Mantle Plume/Crustal Spreading. The Mantle Plume/Passive Crust model appears to be the most consistent with the geology in this region and suggests that a plume disrupts a preexisting region of tessera.

Senske, D. A.↗

Workshop on the Martian Northern Plains: Sedimentological, Periglacial, and Paleoclimatic Evolution

Papers that have been accepted for presentation at the Workshop on the Martian Northern Plains: Sedimentological, Periglacial, and Paleoclimatic Evolution, on 12-14 Aug. 1993 in Fairbanks, Alaska are included. Topics covered include: hydrological consequences of ponded water on Mars; morphological and morphometric studies of impact craters in the Northern Plains of Mars; a wet-geology and cold-climate Mars model: punctuation of a slow dynamics approach to equilibrium; the distribution of ground ice on Mars; and stratigraphy of the Martian Northern Plains.

Kargel, Jeffrey S.↗

The role of extraterrestrial phenomena in extinction

In the several years since the Alvarez report of anomalously high iridium concentrations at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, evidence for the involvement of meteorite impacts in biological extinction has increased dramatically. Much more research will be needed, however, before meteorite impact is established as a general causal factor in extinction. Of ever greater long-term interest is the possibility that other extraterrestrial forces have had important influences on the evolution of life. To recognize the effects of such forces, it will be necessary to coordinate the research of astronomy and paleontology so that testable predictions can be formulated. It is possible that known, systematic changes in the Solar System or Galaxy have had effects on global biology and that these effects have been preserved in the paleontological record.

Non-NASA Center↗

The cryptoendolithic microbial environment in the Ross Desert of Antarctica: mathematical models of the thermal regime

Microbial activity in the Antarctic cryptoendolithic habitat is regulated primarily by temperature. Previous field studies have provided some information on the thermal regime in this habitat, but this type of information is limited by the remoteness of the site and the harsh climatic conditions. Therefore, a mathematical model of the endolithic thermal regime was constructed to augment the field data. This model enabled the parameters affecting the horizontal and altitudinal distribution of the community to be examined. The model predicts that colonization should be possible on surfaces with zenith angle less than 15 degrees. At greater zenith angles, colonization should be restricted to surfaces with azimuth angles less than 135 degrees or greater than 225 degrees. The upper elevational limit of the community should be less than 2,500 m. The thermal regime probably does not influence the zonation of the community within a rock.

Non-NASA Center↗

A kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species

A kill curve for Phanerozoic species is developed from an analysis of the stratigraphic ranges of 17,621 genera, as compiled by Sepkoski. The kill curve shows that a typical species' risk of extinction varies greatly, with most time intervals being characterized by very low risk. The mean extinction rate of 0.25/m.y. is thus a mixture of long periods of negligible extinction and occasional pulses of much higher rate. Because the kill curve is merely a description of the fossil record, it does not speak directly to the causes of extinction. The kill curve may be useful, however, to li inverted question markmit choices of extinction mechanisms.

NASA Discipline Number 52-40↗

Modelling the Phanerozoic carbon cycle and climate: constraints from the 87Sr/86Sr isotopic ratio of seawater

A numerical model describing the coupled evolution of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, sulfur, calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, and strontium has been developed to describe the long-term changes of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate during the Phanerozoic. The emphasis is on the effects of coupling the cycles of carbon and strontium. Various interpretations of the observed Phanerozoic history of the seawater 87Sr/86Sr ratio are investigated with the model. More specifically, the abilities of continental weathering, volcanism, and surface lithology in generating that signal are tested and compared. It is suggested that the observed fluctuations are mostly due to a changing weatherability over time. It is shown that such a conclusion is very important for the modelling of the carbon cycle. Indeed, it implies that the conventional belief that the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate on a long time scale is governed by the balance between the volcanic input of CO2 and the rate of silicate weathering is not true. Rather carbon exchanges between the mantle and the exogenic system are likely to have played a key role too. Further, the increase of the global weathering rates with increasing surface temperature and/or atmospheric CO2 pressure usually postulated in long-term carbon cycle and climate modelling is also inconsistent with the new model. Other factors appear to have modulated the weatherability of the continents through time, such as mountain building and the existence of glaciers and ice sheets. Based on these observations, a history of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate during Phanerozoic time, consistent with the strontium isotopic data, is reconstructed with the model and is shown to be compatible with paleoclimatic indicators, such as the timing of glaciation and the estimates of Cretaceous paleotemperatures.

NASA Discipline Number 52-30↗

Large-body impact and extinction in the Phanerozoic

The kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species is used to investigate large-body impact as a cause of species extinction. Current estimates of Phanerozoic impact rates are combined with the kill curve to produce an impact-kill curve, which predicts extinction levels from crater diameter, on the working assumption that impacts are responsible for all "pulsed" extinctions. By definition, pulsed extinction includes the approximately 60% of Phanerozoic extinctions that occurred in short-lived events having extinction rates greater than 5%. The resulting impact-kill curve is credible, thus justifying more thorough testing of the impact-extinction hypothesis. Such testing is possible but requires an exhaustive analysis of radiometric dating of Phanerozoic impact events.

Non-NASA Center↗