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At least 595 records · Page 33

Enhancing Extreme Precipitation Predictions With Dynamical Downscaling: A Convection‐Permitting Modeling Study in Texas and Oklahoma

Precipitation in the Southern Plains of the United States is relatively well depicted by the Community Earth System Model (CESM). However, despite its ability to capture seasonal mean precipitation anomalies, CESM consistently underestimates extreme pluvial and drought events, rendering it an insufficient tool for extending simulation lead times for exceptional events, such as the abnormally dry May 2011, which helped drive Texas into its worst period of drought in more than a century, and the abnormally wet May 2015, which led to widespread flooding in that state. Ensemble‐based regional climate experiments are completed for the two extreme years using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and downscaled from CESM. WRF simulations are at convection‐permitting grid resolution for improved physical representation of simulated precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. By integrating convection‐permitting models (CPMs) into each individual member of a CESM ocean data assimilation ensemble, this study demonstrates that high‐resolution dynamical downscaling can improve model skillfulness at capturing these two events and is thus a potentially useful tool for forecasting extremely high and extremely low precipitation events at subseasonal or even seasonal lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Including Dust Coagulation in Hydrodynamic Models of Protoplanetary Disks: Dust Evolution in the Vicinity of a Jupiter-mass Planet

Dust growth is often neglected when building models of protoplanetary disks due to its complexity and computational expense. However, it does play a major role in shaping the evolution of protoplanetary dust and planet formation. In this paper, we present a numerical model coupling 2D hydrodynamic evolution of a protoplanetary disk, including a Jupiter-mass planet, and dust coagulation. This is obtained by including multiple dust fluids in a single grid-based hydrodynamic simulation and solving the Smoluchowski equation for dust coagulation on top of solving for the hydrodynamic evolution. We find that fragmentation of dust aggregates trapped in a pressure bump outside of the planetary gap leads to an enhancement in the density of small grains. Additionally, we compare the results obtained from the full-coagulation treatment to the commonly used, fixed-dust-size approach and to previously applied, less computationally intensive methods for including dust coagulation. We find that the full-coagulation results cannot be reproduced using the fixed-size treatment, but some can be mimicked using a relatively simple method for estimating the characteristic dust size in every grid cell.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A multi-scale experimental investigation of flow properties in coarse-grained hydrate reservoirs during production (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, “A multi-scale experimental investigation of flow properties in coarse-grained hydrate reservoirs during production” we explored the relative permeability and dissipation behavior of hydrate-bearing coarse-grained sediment at the core scale and we observed the formation and dissociation of these materials at the pore scale with micro-CT and Raman experiments. The 3-year project results inform reservoir simulation efforts, critical to determining the viability of the coarse-grained hydrate reservoir as an energy resource. We performed the first 3 phase relative permeability experiments in a hydrate-bearing medium using the steady state method (gas and water flow in the presence of hydrate). Results support a model where water is the most wetting phase, hydrate is the intermediate wetting phase, and gas is the least wetting phase. This model can be used to predict relative permeability of gas and water in the presence of hydrate. We showed that when hydrate dissociates, it does so at a pressure and temperature predicted for fresh water (no salinity) conditions. At the scale of a grid block, reservoir simulation models should assume that hydrate dissociates at the freshwater phase boundary. We observed that the chemistry and the pore habit of methane hydrates change dramatically over the timescales of experiments (hours to weeks). It takes weeks to months for hydrates to evolve from a non-stoichiometric to stoichiometric compound with 3:1 large cage vs small cage occupancy. We documented hydrates forming initially in small clayey silt surfaces but gradually concentrated in large pores in sand-sized sediment.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Simulation-Based Parameter Optimization Framework for Large-Scale Hybrid Smart Grid Communications Systems Design

The design of reliable, dynamic, fault-tolerant hybrid smart grid communication networks is a challenge to achieve for autonomous power grids. Hybrid networks use different communications technologies for different area networks. A simulation-based parameter optimization framework is proposed to tune parameters of hybrid communication technologies to achieve the optimal network performance. It consists of three main components: a parallel executor used to speedup a list of simulations; a sampler running simulations using the parallel executor at each generation; and a hybrid stochastic optimization algorithm for tuning configurable parameters of hybrid designs and applications. The proposed hybrid metaheuristic optimization algorithm combines an evolutionary algorithm with a gradient method to quickly achieve an approximately global optimum solution. Three optimization test functions are employed to train the adjustable parameters of the hybrid algorithm. Results show the proposed parameter optimization framework can help the designer choose the right hybrid architecture with an optimal parameter set for a large-scale broadband PLC-WiMAX hybrid smart grid communication network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere, The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the tropics, Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate models simulate cloud processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMS) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and cloud systems, The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momenti,im budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (CCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysical scheme, The model domain contains 256 x 256 grid points (using 2 km resolution) in the horizontal and 38 grid points (to a depth of 22 km depth) in the vertical, The 2D domain has 1024 grid points. The simulations are performed over a 7 day time period. We will examine (1) the precipitation processes (i.e., condensation/evaporation) and their interaction with warm pool; (2) the heating and moisture budgets in the convective and stratiform regions; (3) the cloud (upward-downward) mass fluxes in convective and stratiform regions; (4) characteristics of clouds (such as cloud size, updraft intensity and cloud lifetime) and the comparison of clouds with Radar observations. Differences and similarities in organization of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems. Preliminary results indicated that there is major differences between 2D and 3D simulated stratiform rainfall amount and convective updraft and downdraft mass fluxes.

Tao, W.- K.↗

Accurate simulation of vortical flows

Even with recent supercomputers having a large memory, Navier-Stokes simulations for vortical flows do not provide satisfactory results because of the lack of grid resolution to accurately simulate the strength of separation vortices. To overcome this problem, a zonal method is proposed to increase the number of grid points locally. Interface scheme which is critical for an efficient and stable zonal method is based on the Fortified Navier-Stokes concept. Application to both two-dimensional conical and three-dimensional delta wing problems indicates this simple zonal method can improve the accuracy of vortical flow simulations.

Fujii, Kozo↗

The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and Organized Convection in a Set of Global Mesoscale Simulations with the NASA GEOS AGCM

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has conducted a series of 40-day nonhydrostatic global simulations with horizontal grid spacing ranging from 200 km to 3 km, as part of the DYAMOND model intercomparison project. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model was run with the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme, which smoothly reduces parameterized deep convection with increasing resolution. Here we evaluate the diurnal cycle and other statistics of precipitation and organized convection as a function of resolution. For validation we use the 0.1 degree IMERG precipitation and 4 km Merged IR brightness temperature datasets, focusing on four regions: the continental United States, Amazonia, the equatorial Indian ocean, and the Maritime Continent. Early results indicate good phase agreement but excessive magnitude of the continental diurnal cycle of precipitation at coarser resolutions, with improved magnitude as resolution increases and the role of parameterization is reduced. Convective cloud clusters are identified with a brightness temperature threshold, and we find realistic numbers of the largest clusters (>10^4 km sq) at all resolutions, while the number of smaller clusters increases with resolution, approaching observations when dx=3 km. The observed diurnal cycle in the cluster size distribution is also reproduced, with realistic magnitude in the highest resolution runs. Precipitation characteristics across cluster sizes are also examined. The results show the potential for global mesoscale simulations as a community science resource, and we invite collaboration to explore these runs in greater detail.

Arnold, Nathan↗

Foresee: A user-centric home energy management system for energy efficiency and demand response

This paper presents foresee, a user-centric home energy management system that can help optimize how a home operates to concurrently meet users' needs, achieve energy efficiency and commensurate utility cost savings, and reliably deliver grid services based on utility signals. Foresee is built on a multiobjective model predictive control framework, wherein the objectives consist of energy cost, thermal comfort, user convenience, and carbon emission. Foresee learns user preferences on different objectives and acts on their behalf to operate building equipment, such as home appliances, photovoltaic systems, and battery storage. In this work, machine-learning algorithms were used to derive data-driven appliance models and usage patterns to predict the home's future energy consumption. This approach enables highly accurate predictions of comfort needs, energy costs, environmental impacts, and grid service availability. Simulation studies were performed on field data from a residential building stock data set collected in the Pacific Northwest. Results indicated that foresee generated up to 7.6% whole-home energy savings without requiring substantial behavioral changes. When responding to demand response events, foresee was able to provide load forecasts upon receipt of event notifications and delivered the committed demand response services with 10% or fewer errors. Foresee fully utilized the potential of the battery storage and controllable building loads and delivered up to 7.0-kW load reduction and 13.5-kW load increase. As a result, these benefits are provided while maintaining the occupants' thermal comfort or convenience in using their appliances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Charge-exchange erosion studies of accelerator grids in ion thrusters

A particle simulation model is developed to study the charge-exchange grid erosion in ion thrusters for both ground-based and space-based operations. Because the neutral gas downstream from the accelerator grid is different for space and ground operation conditions, the charge-exchange erosion processes are also different. Based on an assumption of now electric potential hill downstream from the ion thruster, the calculations show that the accelerator grid erosion rate for space-based operating conditions should be significantly less than experimentally observed erosion rates from the ground-based tests conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). To resolve this erosion issue completely, we believe that it is necessary to accurately measure the entire electric potential field downstream from the thruster.

Peng, Xiaohang↗

Density effects on post-shock turbulence structure and dynamics

Turbulence structure resulting from multi-fluid or multi-species, variable-density isotropic turbulence interaction with a Mach 2 shock is studied using turbulence-resolving shock-capturing simulations and Eulerian (grid) and Lagrangian (particle) methods. The complex roles that density plays in the modification of turbulence by the shock wave are identified. Statistical analyses of the velocity gradient tensor (VGT) show that density variations significantly change the turbulence structure and flow topology. Specifically, a stronger symmetrization of the joint probability density function (PDF) of second and third invariants of the anisotropic VGT, PDF $(Q^{\ast },R^{\ast })$ , as well as the PDF of the vortex stretching contribution to the enstrophy equation, are observed in the multi-species case. Furthermore, subsequent to the interaction with the shock, turbulent statistics also acquire a differential distribution in regions having different densities. This results in a nearly symmetric PDF $(Q^{\ast },R^{\ast })$ in heavy-fluid regions, while the light-fluid regions retain the characteristic tear-drop shape. To understand this behaviour and the return to ‘standard’ turbulence structure as the flow evolves away from the shock, Lagrangian dynamics of the VGT and its invariants is studied by considering particle residence times and conditional particle variables in different flow regions. The pressure Hessian contributions to the VGT invariants transport equations are shown to be not only affected by the shock wave, but also by the density in the multi-fluid case, making them critically important to the flow dynamics and turbulence structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electromagnetic Transient Simulation Algorithms for Evaluation of Large-Scale Extreme Fast Charging Systems (Distribution Grid Models)

The distribution and transmission grids are observing an increased penetration of power electronics in loads and generations. For example, there is increasing interest in integrating in extreme fast charging (XFC) systems for fast charging of electrical vehicles. As these systems are integrated, developing high-fidelity electromagnetic transient model of XFC systems in distribution grids and evaluating their interactions with the power grid would be of significant interest. This model will be utilized for design of XFC systems, to identify upgrades in distribution and/or transmission grids, for planning purposes by transmission planners or operators or owners, among others. It can also be utilized in operations for improved reliable performance of the grid and/or XFC station. The challenge with simulating these models is the high computational complexity introduced by the large number of states present in the system and the time-step needed to simulate the system. In this paper, advanced simulations algorithms are applied to reduce the computational complexity of simulating large-scale XFC systems. The algorithms include numerical stiffness-based segregation, time constant-based segregation, clustering and aggregation on differential algebraic equations (DAEs), and multi-order integration approaches. While the first three algorithms split the matrix that needs to be inverted from a large matrix to much smaller matrices, the final algorithm reduces the computational burden of applying higher-order integration approaches in the complete system. The comparison made in the previous sentence is with respect to use of homogeneous integration approaches used in conventional electromagnetic transient simulators like power systems computer aided design (PSCAD). The approaches mentioned here have resulted in speed-up of 36x in the simulation of a single distribution system with 15 XFCs.

Debnath, Suman↗

Automated, reliable, and efficient continental-scale replication of 7.3 petabytes of computational simulation data: A case study

We report on our experiences replicating 7.3 petabytes (PB) of Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) computational simulation data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California to Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in Illinois and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Tennessee—a task motivated by a need for increased reliability, capacity, and performance. This task presented significant challenges: the need to move 29 million files twice under time pressure from aging storage hardware; a source file system bottleneck limiting throughput to 1.5 GB/s; frequent site maintenance windows; and the need for complete reliability at scale. We addressed these challenges using a simple replication tool that invoked Globus to transfer large bundles of files while tracking progress in a database, dynamically rerouting transfers to work around maintenance periods and file system limitations. Under the covers, Globus organized transfers to make efficient use of the high-speed Energy Sciences network (ESnet) and the data transfer nodes deployed at participating sites, and also addressed security, integrity checking, and recovery from a variety of transient failures. This success demonstrates the considerable benefits that can accrue from the adoption of performant data replication infrastructure. The replication tool is available at https://github.com/esgf2-us/data-replication-tools.

Globus↗

Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India

India has witnessed some of the most devastating extreme precipitation events, which have affected urban transportation, agriculture, and infrastructure. Despite the profound implications and damage due to extreme precipitation events, the influence of anthropogenic warming on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events over India remains poorly constrained. Here using the gridded observations and simulations from the Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) and Climate of 20th century plus (C20C+) detection and attribution (D&A) project, we show that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events have increased in India during the last few decades. Along with the extreme precipitation, dew point temperature has also increased during 1979–2015. The scaling relationship between extreme precipitation and dew point temperature shows a super (more than 7% increase per unit rise in dew point temperature) Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship for the majority of south India. Moreover, southern and central India show a higher (10%/°C) scaling relationship than north India (3.5%/°C). Our analysis using the Hist (historic) and HistNat (historic natural) simulations from the CMIP5 and C20C+ projects confirms an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events under the anthropogenic warming. Moreover, we show that 1–5 day precipitation maxima at 5–500 year return period increases (10–30%) under the anthropogenic warming. The frequency of precipitation extremes is projected to rise more prominently in southern and central India in the mid and end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Our results show a significant contribution of anthropogenic warming in the rise of the frequency of extreme precipitation, which has implications for infrastructure, agriculture, and water resources in India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal predictions of toxic urban plumes using deep learning

Industrial accidents, chemical spills, and structural fires can release large amounts of harmful materials that disperse into urban atmospheres and impact populated areas. Computer models are typically used to predict the transport of toxic plumes by solving fluid dynamical equations. However, these models can be computationally expensive due to the need for many grid cells to simulate turbulent flow and resolve individual buildings and streets. In emergency response situations, alternative methods are needed that can run quickly and adequately capture important spatiotemporal features. Here, we present a novel deep learning model called ST-GasNet inspired by the mathematical equations that govern the behavior of plumes as they disperse through the atmosphere. ST-GasNet learns the spatiotemporal dependencies from a limited set of temporal sequences of ground-level toxic urban plumes generated by a high-resolution large eddy simulation model. On independent sequences, ST-GasNet accurately predicts the late-time spatiotemporal evolution, given the early-time behavior as an input, even when a building splits a large plume into smaller plumes. By incorporating large-scale wind boundary condition information, ST-GasNet achieves a prediction accuracy of at least 90% on test data for the entire prediction period.

Civil and Environmental Engineering↗

An Inrush Current Limit Method for SiC-based Multi-level Grid-connected Converter During Low-Voltage Ride-Through

Low-voltage ride-through is one of the grid requirements for grid-connected converters, and during the transient of grid voltage change, a large inrush current could be induced due to the control delay of the converter. This inrush current is more severe in SiC-based multi-level converters due to the small filter inductance, which is selected based on harmonics consideration. In this paper, a PWM mask method is used to limit the inrush current of a cascaded H-bridge-based grid-connected converter during the transient of grid voltage change. Simulation and experiment results are provided to validate this method.

Li, Haiguo↗

A Hierarchical Local Electricity Market for a DER-rich Grid Edge

We report with increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in the distribution system, it is critical to design market structures that enable smooth integration of DERs. A hierarchical local electricity market (LEM) structure is proposed in this paper with a secondary market (SM) at the lower level representing secondary feeders and a primary market (PM) at the upper level, representing primary feeders, in order to effectively use DERs to increase grid efficiency and resilience. The lower level SM enforces budget, power balance, and flexibility constraints and accounts for costs related to consumers, such as their disutility, flexibility limits, and commitment reliability, while the upper level PM enforces grid physics constraints such as power balance and capacity limits, and also minimizes line losses. The hierarchical LEM is extensively evaluated using a modified IEEE-123 bus with high DER penetration, with each primary feeder consisting of at least three secondary feeders. Data from a GridLAB-D model is used to emulate realistic power injections and load profiles over the course of 24 hours. The performance of the LEM is illustrated by delineating the family of power-injection profiles across the primary and secondary feeders as well as corresponding local electricity tariffs that vary across the distribution grid. Through numerical simulations, the hierarchical LEM is shown to improve the efficiency of the market in terms of lowering overall costs, including both the distribution-level locational marginal prices (d-LMP) as well as retail tariffs paid by customers. Together, it represents an overall framework for a Distribution System Operator (DSO) who can provide the oversight for the entire LEM.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

New York City Impacts on a Regional Heat Wave

Abstract Extreme heat events are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency throughout this century due to increasing global temperatures, making it critically important to acquire improved understanding of their genesis and interactions with large cities. This study presents an application of the factor separation method to assess combined impacts of a synoptic scale heat wave, urban land cover, and urban energy and momentum fluxes on temperatures and winds over New York City via use of high resolution simulations (1 km grid spacing) with an urbanized WRF model. Results showed that, while the heat wave had the largest contribution to temperatures (> 8°C), urban surface factors matched it in highly urbanized areas. Surface factors matched this in highly urbanized areas during night and early morning hours, with contributions up to 5°C, when calm land breeze conditions result in a strong urban heat island. Positive interactions between all factors during morning and nighttime indicate urban heat island amplification of up to 4°C during the heat wave. Midtown Manhattan vertical cross-sections, where urban canopies are most dense, showed a change in the sign (from positive to negative) of the contribution of the urban fluxes between night and day below 500 m, possibly due to radiation blocking and increased thermal storage by buildings as well as frictional effects opposing the incoming warm air.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗