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At least 595 records · Page 33

Assessing pore network heterogeneity across multiple scales to inform CO2 injection models

Geologic heterogeneity is a key feature that must be considered when translations of scaled data are performed. This paper presents the assessment of geologic heterogeneity using a multiscale workflow that includes image analysis-based methods coupled with well log analysis to provide data in which fractals and machine learning methods estimate the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resource potential of a reservoir. The heterogeneity of rock properties of the complex Bell Creek reservoir in Montana, USA, was explored at the pore scale (~nm to mm), core scale (~mm to m), and well scale (~cm to m). The data used in this study included advanced image analysis of micro-CT (computed tomography) images (pore scale), thin sections (pore scale), plugs and core images (core scale) and well logs (well scale). The micro-CT images were segmented using a U-net segmentation approach into objects of pores and grains. Further, the segmented images were reconstructed into subvolumes of different sizes. Physical properties (porosity and permeability) and fractal dimensions were calculated for the various subvolumes, and Lorenz coefficient (Lc) values, a single parameter to describe the degree of heterogeneity within a pay zone section, were calculated from thin-section images and well logs. Porosity and fractal dimension values were used to estimate the 188-µm threshold of representative elementary volume (REV) in this study. Both the Lc and fractal dimension values were found to be negatively correlated. When these two parameters are combined, it is possible to discern differences in the complex porous networks of the samples analyzed in this study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Affordability Engineering: Bridging the Gap Between Design and Cost

Affordability is a commonly used term that takes on numerous meanings depending on the context used. Within conceptual design of complex systems, the term generally implies comparisons between expected costs and expected resources. This characterization is largely correct, but does not convey the many nuances and considerations that are frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. In the most fundamental sense, affordability and cost directly relate to engineering and programmatic decisions made throughout development programs. Systems engineering texts point out that there is a temporal aspect to this relationship, for decisions made earlier in a program dictate design implications much more so than those made during latter phases. This paper explores affordability engineering and its many sub-disciplines by discussing how it can be considered an additional engineering discipline to be balanced throughout the systems engineering and systems analysis processes. Example methods of multidisciplinary design analysis with affordability as a key driver will be discussed, as will example methods of data visualization, probabilistic analysis, and other ways of relating design decisions to affordability results.

Reeves, J. D.↗

Probabilistic Machine Learning Estimation of Ocean Mixed Layer Depth from Dense Satellite and Sparse In-Situ Observations

The ocean mixed layer plays an important role in the coupling between the upper ocean and atmosphere across a wide range of time scales. Estimation of the variability of the ocean mixed layer is therefore important for atmosphere-ocean prediction and analysis. The increasing coverage of in situ Argo profile data allows for an increasingly accurate analysis of the mixed layer depth (MLD) variability associated with deviations from the seasonal climatology. However, sampling rates are not sufficient to fully resolve subseasonal (<90 day) MLD variability. Yet, many multivariate observations-based analyses include implicit modeled subseasonal MLD variability. One analysis method is optimal interpolation of in situ data, but the interior analysis can be improved by leveraging surface data with regression or variational approaches. Here, we demonstrate how machine learning methods and satellite sea surface temperature, salinity, and height facilitate MLD estimation in a pilot study of two regions: the mid-latitude southern Indian and the eastern equatorial Pacific Oceans. We construct multiple machine learning architectures to produce weekly 1/2° gridded MLD anomaly fields (relative to a monthly climatology) with uncertainty estimates. We test multiple traditional and probabilistic machine learning techniques to compare both accuracy and probabilistic calibration. We validate our methodology by applying it to ocean model simulations. We find that incorporating sea surface data through a machine learning model improves the performance of spatiotemporal MLD variability estimation compared to optimal interpolation of Argo observations alone. These preliminary results are a promising first step for the application of machine learning to MLD prediction.

Machine Learning↗

Analysis/forecast experiments with a multivariate statistical analysis scheme using FGGE data

A three-dimensional, multivariate, statistical analysis method, optimal interpolation (OI) is described for modeling meteorological data from widely dispersed sites. The model was developed to analyze FGGE data at the NASA-Goddard Laboratory of Atmospherics. The model features a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans, including maintenance of the Ekman balance and a geographically dependent correlation function. Preliminary comparisons are made between the OI model and similar schemes employed at the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the National Meteorological Center. The OI scheme is used to provide input to a GCM, and model error correlations are calculated for forecasts of 500 mb vertical water mixing ratios and the wind profiles. Comparisons are made between the predictions and measured data. The model is shown to be as accurate as a successive corrections model out to 4.5 days.

Baker, W. E.↗

In-Flight System Identification

A method is proposed and studied whereby the system identification cycle consisting of experiment design and data analysis can be repeatedly implemented aboard a test aircraft in real time. This adaptive in-flight system identification scheme has many advantages, including increased flight test efficiency, adaptability to dynamic characteristics that are imperfectly known a priori, in-flight improvement of data quality through iterative input design, and immediate feedback of the quality of flight test results. The technique uses equation error in the frequency domain with a recursive Fourier transform for the real time data analysis, and simple design methods employing square wave input forms to design the test inputs in flight. Simulation examples are used to demonstrate that the technique produces increasingly accurate model parameter estimates resulting from sequentially designed and implemented flight test maneuvers. The method has reasonable computational requirements, and could be implemented aboard an aircraft in real time.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Critical analysis of velocimetry methods for particulate flows from synthetic data

Particle tracking methods that extract high-fidelity particle velocity data from high speed video of particle laden flows is a common experimental technique applied to chemical processes. These measurements are used to better understand the motion of particles and fluids in complex systems and create data against which computational models are validated. However, the methods, codes, and experimental setups all have limitations. It is imperative that practitioners verify the methods and their implementation as well as understand the limitations of experimental setups. This work focuses on quantifying the visible depth of field in a high particle concentration fluidized bed. Following a precedent set by the particle imaging velocimetry community, a particle velocity field is manufactured using a computational fluid dynamics and discrete element method simulation. Photo realistic high-speed videos are rendered based on the simulated data using the three-dimensional creation software Blender. Particle velocities are extracted from the synthetic high-speed videos using three variants of Particle Tracking Velocimetry and Optical Flow Velocimetry methodologies. Here, the tracked results are then compared to the known solution, quantifying the error associated with the assumed visible depth. The results indicate that at depth of one particle diameter, all three particle tracking codes give accurate measurements, largely within 5%. However, the error increases when the full bed video measurements are compared to the known solution at one particle diameter, i.e., mimicking a validation study. Finally, for some statistics the constant depth assumption only increases the error slightly, for others significantly.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Correlation of theory to wind-tunnel data at Reynolds numbers below 500,000

This paper presents results obtained from two airfoil analysis methods compared with previously published wind tunnel test data at chord Reynolds numbers below 500,000. The analysis methods are from the Eppler-Somers airfoil design/analysis code and from ISES, the Drela-Giles Airfoil design/analysis code. The experimental data are from recent tests of the Eppler 387 airfoil in the NASA Langley Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel. For R not less than 200,000, lift and pitching moment predictions from both theories compare well with experiment. Drag predictions from both theories also agree with experiment, although to different degrees. However, most of the drag predictions from the Eppler-Somers code are accompanied with separation bubble warnings which indicate that the drag predictions are too low. With the Drela-Giles code, there is a large discrepancy between the computed and experimental pressure distributions in cases with laminar separation bubbles, although the drag polar predictions are similar in trend to experiment.

Evangelista, Raquel↗

High throughput reconfigurable data analysis system

The present invention relates to a system and method for performing rapid and programmable analysis of data. The present invention relates to a reconfigurable detector comprising at least one array of a plurality of pixels, where each of the plurality of pixels can be selected to receive and read-out an input. The pixel array is divided into at least one pixel group for conducting a common predefined analysis. Each of the pixels has a programmable circuitry programmed with a dynamically configurable user-defined function to modify the input. The present detector also comprises a summing circuit designed to sum the modified input.

Bearman, Greg↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A method of using cluster analysis to study statistical dependence in multivariate data

A technique is presented that uses both cluster analysis and a Monte Carlo significance test of clusters to discover associations between variables in multidimensional data. The method is applied to an example of a noisy function in three-dimensional space, to a sample from a mixture of three bivariate normal distributions, and to the well-known Fisher's Iris data.

Borucki, W. J.↗

MODELING AND PARAMETRIC STUDY OF END-GAS AUTOIGNITION TO ALLOW THE REALIZATION OF ULTRA-LOW EMISSIONS, HIGH-EFFICIENCY HEAVY-DUTY SPARK-IGNITED NATURAL GAS ENGINES

Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to high-efficiency Spark-Ignited (SI) Natural Gas (NG) engines. The general tendency to knock is highly dependent on engine operating conditions and the fuel reactivity. The problem is further complicated by the low emission limits and the wide range of chemical reactivity in pipeline-quality natural gas. Depending on the region and the source of the natural gas, its reactivity, described by its Methane Number (MN), which is analogous to the Octane Number for liquid SI fuels, can span from 65 to 95. In order to realize diesel-like efficiencies, SI NG engines must be designed to operate at high Brake Mean Effective Pressures (BMEP), near or beyond knock limits, over a wide range of fuel reactivity. This requires a deep understanding of the combustion-engine interactions pertaining to flame propagation and End-Gas Autoignition (EGAI), i.e., the autoignition of the unburned gas (end gas) ahead of the flame front. However, EGAI, if controlled, provides an opportunity to increase SI NG engine efficiency by increasing the combustion rate and the total fraction of burned fuel, mitigating the effects of the slow flame speeds characteristic of natural gas fuels, which generally reduce BMEP and increase unburned hydrocarbon emissions. For this reason, to realize diesel-like efficiencies and ultra-low emissions on SI NG engines, this work proposes the study of the main parameters influencing the modeling and prediction of NG EGAI to allow for its control. In this work, a novel EGAI detection and onset determination method was developed to reliably quantify EGAI for data analysis and engine control. The new method allowed the prediction of EGAI on SI NG engines without the need to use engine- and operating-condition-dependent thresholds and reduced the error in quantifying the fraction of the total energy released by the EGAI event by up to 40%pts. One- and three-dimensional engine models were then developed to study the engine/fuel interactions that lead to NG EGAI and its performance benefits. These models, although having decent agreement with experimental data, showed the need to account for NOx chemistry when predicting NG EGAI due to a consistently later prediction of the EGAI onset (~1.65 crank-angle degrees) and thus, a new reduced chemical mechanism for real NG fuels was developed containing NOx chemistry. The new reduced mechanism improved the EGAI onset prediction agreement to within ±0.5 crank-angle degrees and decreased simulation time during combustion by nearly 50% when using the further reduced AREIS50NOx chemical mechanism. These models were then used to study the role of NG composition on EGAI, evaluate the engine/fuel interactions leading to NG EGAI, and perform engine optimization while leveraging EGAI to increase thermal efficiency. Piston design optimization combined with a Controlled EGAI (C-EGAI) combustion mode allowed a Heavy-Duty (HD) SI NG engine to operate at diesel-like efficiencies, i.e., Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) ≥44%. Experimental and modeling data analysis revealed that earlier and faster heat release increases combustion efficiency by an average of 1%pts, increases work transferred to the piston resulting in a decrease in exhaust losses by 50% depending on the engine operating condition while slightly increasing heat losses. Finally, the simulation results revealed an opportunity to further enhance the BTE (up to 50%) by enabling C-EGAI combustion at leaner conditions, λ=1.4-1.6.

Bestel, Diego Bernardi↗

Experimental boundary integral equation applications in speckle interferometry

A complete data analysis system utilizing laser speckle interferometry and Experimental Integral Equation Method (EBIE) is described. A host computer provides the optical data analysis and serves as an input device to a PDP11/VAX computer for numerical analysis. The basic theory of pointwise filtering and digital correlation is described as experimental data input to the BIE method.

Fraley, J. E.↗

Neural networks analysis on SSME vibration simulation data

The neural networks method is applied to investigate the feasibility in detecting anomalies in turbopump vibration of SSME to supplement the statistical method utilized in the prototype system. The investigation of neural networks analysis is conducted using SSME vibration data from a NASA developed numerical simulator. The limited application of neural networks to the HPFTP has also shown the effectiveness in diagnosing the anomalies of turbopump vibrations.

Lo, Ching F.↗

The analysis of star catalogs. 2: An intercomparison among the GC, the N30, and the FK5(B1950.0/FK4)

We use the general method of compiled data set analysis developed in our first paper (Bucciarelli et. al. 1994) and extend our analysis of fundamental star catalogs to include the two American ones. The problems found in the FK3/FK4/FK5 sequence are not present in either the GC or the N30. This lends support to the hypothesis advanced in our previous paper that the FK3, and to a lesser extent the FK4 declination system, are distorted by high angular frequency systematics. On the other hand, both the GC and N30 equatorial coordinate and proper motion distributions nicely follow the predictions of mathematical statistics. As with the FK3/FK4/FK5 analysis, the new results are as seen by the FK5 (on the FK4/B1950.0 system).

Taff, L. G.↗

Multilevel cloud retrieval using multispectral HIRS and AVHRR data: Nighttime oceanic analysis

A multispectral, multiresolution (MSMR) method is developed for analyzing scenes of overlapping cloud layers. The MSMR method is applied to data from the NOAA 11 advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the high-resolution infrared radiometer sounder (HIRS-2). The data are from a nighttime oceanic scene in which a semitransparent cirrus veil overlays a large-scale stratus cloud. Low-cloud and clear-sky radiances are determined using a spatial coherence technique. Middle to upper level cloud pressures and radiances are estimated from HIRS-2 15 micrometer CO2 band radiometric data. The MSMR method improves the interpretation of a nighttime, oceanic scene containing thin cirrus over a large-scale stratiform cloud. If, for example, the same scene is analyzed using only the AVHRR 10.8 micrometer channel, the accompanying retrieved cloud heights are found to be between the cirrus and stratus cloud heights and are incorrectly identified as midlevel altostratus clouds. Theoretical radiative transfer model results for both water droplet spheres and randomly oriented hexagonal ice crystals are compared to observed AVHRR brightness temperature differences (BTD) between the 3.7- and 10.8 micrometer channels (BTD(sup 34)) and between the 10.8- and 12- micrometer channels (BTD(sup 45)) to distinguish among the effects of cloud optical depth, particle size, and phase for both single-layer clouds and overlapping two-layer clouds. Theoretical BTD calculations are used to estimate the range of effective particle sizes for eac h cloud layer. The data for the cirrus in the case study region near Bermuda are consistent with theoretical results for relatively small randomly oriented hexagonal ice crystals. The observed BTD(sup 34) and BTD(sup 45) values are lower for the cirrus above a lower-level cloud than for single-level cirrus with no underlying cloud. In certain cases the BTD analysis provides a way to distinguish between clouds composed of supercooled water droplets rather than ice particles. Analysis of nighttime data permits determination of stratus infrared optical depths smaller than 4.

Baum, Bryan A.↗

Laboratory spectra of field samples as a check on two atmospheric correction methods

Atmospheric correction is the first step toward quantitative analysis of imaging spectroscopy data. Two methods, MODTRAN model and the empirical line, were used to convert AVIRIS radiance values to reflectance values. A set of laboratory spectra of field samples corresponding to AVIRIS coverage was used to assess these methods. This will also serve to select bands for future quantative analyses.

Xu, Pung↗