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International Ultraviolet Explorer observations of Venus SO2 and SO

Results of recent International Ultraviolet Explorer observations of Venus made on January 20, 1987 and April 2 and 3, 1988 are presented along with a reanalysis of the 1979 observations (Conway et al., 1979). The observations indicate that the amount of sulfur dioxide at the cloud tops of Venus declined by a factor of 8 + or - 4 from 380 + or - 70 ppb in 1979 to 50 + or - 20 ppb in 1987 and 1988. These values are consistent with the Pioneer Venus results. Absorption features of sulfur monoxide are identified for the first time, and the SO mixing ratio above the cloud level is estimated to be 20 + or - 10 ppb for 1979. This is consistent with photochemical models by Winick and Stewart (1980) and Yung and DeMore (1982) and with the upper limit from Wilson et al. (1981).

Na, Chan Y.↗

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

MERRA↗

Observation of a Cold Air Outbreak using CrIS on S-NPP and its Comparison with MERRA-2 and ERA-5

A cold air outbreak (CAO) is an extreme weather phenomenon that has significant social and economic impacts over a large region of the midlatitudes. However, the dynamical mechanism governing the occurrence and evolution of CAO events, particularly the role of the stratosphere, is not well understood. Through an analysis of one extreme CAO episode that occurred on 27-31 January 2019 across much of the US Midwest, this presentation examines the thermodynamic structure and impact of stratospheric downward transport using single-field-view (SFOV) satellite products (with a spatial resolution of ~14 km at nadir) from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite in conjunction with MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalysis products. The results show that along the path of cold air transport, particularly near the coldest surface center, there exists a large enhancement of O 3 , deep tropopause folding, and significant downward transport of stratospheric dry air, and a warm center above the tropopause that can be observed directly using the brightness temperature (BT) observations from CrIS stratospheric sounding channels. This study provides some observational evidences from CrIS that confirm the impact of stratosphere on CAO through downward transport, and demonstrates the value of the SFOV retrieval products for CAO dynamic transport study and model evaluation.

Xiaozhen Xiong↗

Version 2 Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2)

Information on the turbulent fluxes of momentum, moisture, and heat at the air-sea interface is essential in improving model simulations of climate variations and in climate studies. We have derived a 13.5-year (July 1987-December 2000) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over global oceans from the Special Sensor Mcrowave/Imager (SSM/I) radiance measurements. This dataset, version 2 Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2), has a spatial resolution of 1 degree x 1 degree latitude-longitude and a temporal resolution of 1 day. Turbulent fluxes are derived from the SSM/I surface winds and surface air humidity, as well as the 2-m air and sea surface temperatures (SST) of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using a bulk aerodynamic algorithm based on the surface layer similarity theory.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

Increased Greenland Melt Triggered by Large-Scale, Year-Round Cyclonic Moisture Intrusions

Surface melting is a major driver of Greenland's mass loss. Yet, the mechanisms that trigger melt are still insufficiently understood because seasonally based studies blend processes initiating melt with positive feedbacks. Here, we focus on the triggers of melt by examining the synoptic atmospheric conditions associated with 313 rapid melt increases, detected in a satellite-derived melt extent product, equally distributed throughout the year over the period 1979-2012. By combining reanalysis and weather station data, we show that melt is initiated by a cyclone-driven, southerly flow of warm, moist air, which gives rise to large-scale precipitation. A decomposition of the synoptic atmospheric variability over Greenland suggests that the identified, melt-triggering weather pattern accounts for approximately 40 percent of the net precipitation, but increases in the frequency, duration and areal extent of the initiated melting have shifted the line between mass gain and mass loss as more melt and rainwater run off or accumulate in the snowpack. Using a regional climate model, we estimate that the initiated melting more than doubled over the investigated period, amounting to approximately 28 percent of the overall surface melt and revealing that, despite the involved mass gain, year-round precipitation events are participating in the ice sheet's decline.

Oltmanns, Marilena↗

Springtime SEA Air Is Consistently Both Smoky and Humid, but This Relationship (and Its Radiative Effects) Varies Spatially and Seasonally

The atmosphere over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) sees a consistent springtime biomass burning (BB) smoke from widespread agricultural fires on the African continent. This smoke layer is initially lofted high in a continental mixed layer (~5-6km) and is then transported westward in the free troposphere, where it overlies and ultimately mixes into the SEA stratocumulus-topped oceanic boundary layer. Coincident with this smoke is an elevated humidity signal which is present from the time a given airmass is over the continental source region. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) was a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital mission with the goal of measuring aerosol, cloud, and atmospheric properties over this region during three deployments in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018. A previous study discussed the spatial characteristics of the water vapor-BB plume observations in the September 2016 flight data and their degree of agreement with several atmospheric reanalyses and models. In the present work, we first discuss atmospheric chemistry, structure, and aerosol results from all three ORACLES deployments to place these results in a broader seasonal context. Despite the differing locations and season of each deployment, we show that there continues to be good agreement between the airborne ORACLES dataset and large-scale reanalyses, specifically the ECMWF ERA5 and CAMS reanalyses. Other reanalyses (specifically NASA's MERRA-2) preserved the observed correlation between meteorology and biomass burning conditions, but, as was seen for 2016, was frequently displaced spatially relative to the observations. The CAMS reanalysis performs better with water vapor than with CO. Results comparing CAMS column AOD to the field measurements show slight overestimates, consistent with previous analysis, but the good relationship observed between AOD and inlet-based aerosol extinction demonstrates this metric's utility to broader studies. The good ERA5/CAMS/ORACLES agreement allows us to next examine the multi-year seasonal patterns and trends beyond the three ORACLES deployment periods. Looking at seven years of reanalysis data for the BB season, we find distinct variations between each month/deployment in terms of vertical smoke distribution and correlation to atmospheric specific humidity, due to changing conditions through the BB season. Using k-means clustering of these climatological reanalysis, we identify six canonical atmospheric profile types of varying total atmospheric humidity and vertical structure and describe their changing incidence spatially and throughout the season, and six analogous profile types for carbon monoxide, allowing us to characterize the atmospheric structure of both vapor and BB over time throughout the SEA region. This classification will allow for a more complete analysis of the broader radiative and dynamical effects of humid aerosols overlying stratocumulus clouds.

Kristina Marie Myers Pistone↗

Performance Tests of Snow-Related Variables Over the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayas Using a New Version of NASA GEOS-5 Land Surface Model that Includes the Snow Darkening Effect

The snow darkening effect, i.e. the reduction of snow albedo, is caused by absorption of solar radiation by absorbing aerosols (dust, black carbon, and organic carbon) deposited on the snow surface. This process is probably important over Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers due to the transport of highly polluted Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). This effect has been incorporated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric transport model. The Catchment land surface model (LSM) used in GEOS-5 considers 3 snow layers. Code was developed to track the mass concentration of aerosols in the three layers, taking into account such processes as the flushing of the compounds as liquid water percolates through the snowpack. In GEOS-5, aerosol emissions, transports, and depositions are well simulated in the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GO CART) module; we recently made the connection between GOCART and the GEOS-5 system fitted with the revised LSM. Preliminary simulations were performed with this new system in "replay" mode (i.e., with atmospheric dynamics guided by reanalysis) at 2x2.5 degree horizontal resolution, covering the period 1 November 2005 - 31 December 2009; we consider the final three years of simulation here. The three simulations used the following variants of the LSM: (1) the original Catchment LSM with a fixed fresh snowfall density of 150 kg m-3 ; (2) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code, used here without aerosol deposition but with changes in density formulation and melting water effect on snow specific surface area, (3) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code as same as (2) but with fixed aerosol deposition rates (computed from GOCART values averaged over the Tibetan Plateau domain [Ion.: 60-120E; lat.: 20-50N] during March-May 2008) applied to all grid points at every time step. For (2) and (3), the same setting on the fresh snowfall density as in (1) was used.

Yasunari, Tppei J.↗

Application of Aviation Turbulence Information to Air-Traffic Management (ATM): Chapter - 24

Unexpected turbulence especially in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere where cabin crews and passengers in cruising aircraft are likely to unbuckle causes in-flight injuries, structural damage, and flight delay. Therefore, turbulence information can be used to improve safety while pursuing efficiency in Air-Traffic Management (ATM). In this chapter, simple modeling of aircraft trajectories combined with wind and turbulence predictions can suggest the optimal solution of flight plans that minimizes both total flight time (e.g., fuel consumption) and potential encounters of turbulence from departure to arrival airports. Also, probabilistic ensemble turbulence forecasts are applied to suggest an optimal strategic and tactical ATM route planning in a given weather and turbulence condition in the United States which are evaluated against in situ Eddy Dissipation Rate observations from commercial aircraft. Finally, variations of long-haul trans-Oceanic flight routes and their turbulence potentials are investigated using a global reanalysis data to understand how the upper-level large-scale flow patterns can affect the long-term ATM planning through the changes of winds and turbulence conditions.

Wind Optimal↗

Intercomparisons of Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Other Long Term Data Sets

Global water vapor data sets from satellite (NVAP) and reanalysis (NCEP and DAO) are intercompared for a 5 year period (1988-1992). Global average indicates that the NCEP and DAO reanalyses are dryer than NVAP over much of the period. Spatial patterns of the NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences show regional variations in the 60 month climatogical fields. For example, in the Eastern Pacific just south of the equator NVAP is much dryer than the NCEP and more moist than DAO. Rather large discrepancies exist in other regions as well. North Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, and Australia show that NVAP TPW values are more moist than the NCEP and DAO model analyses by 4-8 mm. In general, the NCEP and DAO exhibits a tendency to be dryer than NVAP over the tropical ocean region. Over the Americas little differences exist except over the west coast. The shapes of the differences fields over the Eastern Pacific region are significantly different between NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences. Over South America and Central Africa, DAO TPW values are significantly higher than those of NVAP. These difference fields show monthly and seasonal variability as well. These results will be highlighted in the paper and on the poster.

Chang, Fong-Chiau↗

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Sea surface salinity (SSS) observations from space allow us to investigate if improved estimates of near-surface density stratification and associated mixing can positively impact seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as dynamical ENSO forecasts. For the first part of the presentation, we utilize our intermediate-complexity coupled model. Baseline experiments assimilate satellite sea level (multi-satellite gridded AVISO, 2013), SST (Reynolds et al., 2004), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (GTSPP NODC, 2006). These baseline experiments are then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (V5.0 Lilly and Lagerloef, 2008) and SMAP (V4.0 Fore et al., 2016) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. This pattern enhances air/sea interaction and amplifies the equatorial Kelvin wave signal. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation over most forecast lead times. We next assess how different satellite SSS products impact the validation of ENSO forecasts. SMAP V4 reduces the salty bias in the western Pacific and so is an improvement upon SMAP V2 and SMOS V2 (Boutin et al., 2017) has similar validation characteristics as a combination of Aquarius and SMAP V4. Next we shift to present results from the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S_v2.1) production coupled model (i.e. the same model that contributes ENSO forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Experiment). From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. We will present distinct experiments for the overlap period that include 1) freely evolving SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS as the production system), 2) Aquarius, and 3) SMAP initialization. Our results show that using Aquarius slightly improves validation of the reanalysis (including sea level and temperature statistics). Our production system without SSS assimilation generated too warm forecasts for the 2015 El Nino from March initial conditions. Incorporating Aquarius into initialization of the coupled system leads to a deeper, more realistic MLD that acts to damp the downwelling Kelvin signal and slightly cool NINO3.4 SST. With Aquarius the forecasts better match the observed amplitude of the 2015 event. On the other hand, SMAP V2 relaxation generally degrades validation statistics. At forecast initialization, SMAP is much too salty within 10o of the equator, leading to deeper MLD east of 165W. This deeper MLD leads to over-damping of the downwelling signal (i.e. relative upwelling), in turn leading to relatively too cool ENSO forecasts.

Hackert, E.↗

Validation of CrIS Ozone and Carbon Oxide Products from CrIS Single-Field-of-View Retrievals

Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Products (SiFSAP) from Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on S-NPP have been developed at NASA Langley Research center, and recently a significant improvement in its trace gases products has been made. These products are derived based on the Principal Component (PC)-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) and an optimal estimation retrieval method (PCRTM-RA). Use of the PCRTM in this method allows for fast and accurate calculations for thousands of spectral channels under clear and cloudy sky conditions. The use of principal component to compress information from all spectral channels into the PC domain enables to reduce the observational noise and use the information from all hyperspectral infrared channels. The retrieval is made on PC-domain, and temperature, water vapor, trace gases, cloud and surface parameters are retrieved simultaneously. This presentation will present some validation to the SiFSAP ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) products. Since the SiFSAP has a spatial resolution of about 14 km at nadir, which is better than most global weather and climate models and enables to make process-oriented analysis of the transport of these gases, this study will focus on validation of CO and O3 products under some extreme weather and/or climate events, such as CO emission and transport from large biomass burning, and O3 variation impacted by fire emission, stratospheric intrusion, and tropical cyclones. Data used in our validation include CO and O3 from NASA aircraft campaigns, plus other satellite products such as CO and O3 from AIRS, IASI and TROPOMI, MOPPIT CO and OMPS O3. Some comparison of SiFSAP O3 with the O3 from the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) will also present. Such a validation not only helps to quantify the performance of the retrievals in these extreme conditions, but also displays the capability of satellite observation to capture the fine-scale spatial pattern of CO and O3 variation.

Xiaozhen Xiong↗

Decadal Changes in the Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in East Asia Caused by Atmospheric Teleconnection Changes

The heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia.

heat wave patterns↗

Luminosity correlations in quasars

Simulations are conducted with and without flux thresholds in an investigation of quasar luminosity correlations by means of a Monte Carlo analysis, for various model distributions of quasars in X-rays and optical luminosity. For the case where the X-ray photons are primary, an anticorrelation between X-ray-to-optical luminosity ratio and optical luminosity arises as a natural consequence which resembles observations. The low optical luminosities of X-ray selected quasars can be understood as a consequence of the same effect, and similar conclusions may hold if the X-ray and optical luminosities are determined independently by a third parameter, although they do not hold if the optical photons are primary. The importance of such considerations is demonstrated through a reanalysis of the published X-ray-to-optical flux ratios for the 3CR sample.

Chanan, G. A.↗

Decomposing Shortwave Top-of-Atmosphere and Surface Radiative Flux Variations in Terms of Surface and Atmospheric Contributions

Adiagnostic tool for determining surface and atmospheric contributions to interannual variations in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected shortwave (SW) and net downward SW surface radiative fluxes is introduced. The method requires only upward and downward radiative fluxes at the TOA and surface as input and therefore can readily be applied to both satellite-derived and model-generated adiative fluxes. Observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Edition 4.0 product show that 81% of the monthly variability in global mean reflected SW TOA flux anomalies is associated with atmospheric variations (mainly clouds),6%is from surface variations, and 13% is from atmosphere–surface covariability. Over the Arctic Ocean, most of the variability in both reflected SW TOA flux and net downward SW surface flux anomalies is explained by variations in sea ice and cloud fraction alone (r2 5 0.94). Compared to CERES, variability in two reanalyses—the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)—show large differences in the regional distribution of variance for both the atmospheric and surface contributions to anomalies in net downward SW surface flux. For MERRA-2 the atmospheric contribution is 17% too large compared to CERES while ERA-Interim underestimates the variance by 15%. The difference is mainly due to how cloud variations are represented in the reanalyses. The overall surface contribution in both ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 is smaller than CERES EBAF by 15% for ERA-Interim and 58% for MERRA-2, highlighting limitations of the reanalyses in representing surface albedo variations and their influence on SW radiative fluxes.

Norman G. Loeb↗

The Convergence of Analysis Produced by Overlapping Assimilation Streams

When conducting a reanalysis for a long period, it is common to do so using multiple, parallel computational schemes. A period of overlap is included to foster continuity between successive streams. At the GMAO, the overlap period is one year. By the end of that period, the time mean anlysis for corresponding overlapped months are almost identical, as desired. The variances of differences at corresponding analysis times within each month, however, do not converge to zero. Instead their monthly variances converge to values that are a significant fraction of the the estimated variances of analysis errors. This occurs although the overlapping streams use the same observations, assimilation model, and assimilation algorithm, differing only in the background applied information applied at the beginning of the overlap period.

Errico, Ronald M.↗

A reanalysis of rocket measurements of the ultraviolet dayglow

Rocket measurements of O I 989, 1304, 1356 A and N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield band emission in the midlatitude dayglow reported by Gentieu et al. (1979) and Eastes et al. (1985) are reexamined. MSIS-83 atomic oxygen densities, the 1304 and 1356 A excitation cross sections of Zipf and Erdman (1985), and SMM solar 1304 A irradiance measurements are consistent with the observed O I and N2 emission intensities. Atmosphere Explorer E (AE-E) measurements of the solar EUV irradiance near solar maximum are consistent with the 1980 rocket airglow data, but the solar EUV irradiance required to explain the 1978 airglow data is a factor of 1.5 larger than indicated by AE-E. Enhancement of the 1304 A excitation cross section due to radiative entrapment of cascade-feeding photons is much less than the factor of two predicted by the cascade model of Julienne and Davis (1976).

Link, R.↗

The Influence of Environmental State on Lightning and Convective Parameter Distributions

A merged and highly reduced database of TRMM level 1 (precipitation radar, microwave imager, lightning) and NCEP reanalysis (basic state, radiative and surface flux) data has been assembled for three years of the TRMM mission. This allows direct examination of the dependence of convective spectra (as observed through radar reflectivity, microwave brightness temperature and lightning flash rate) on environmental basic states and anomalies. Such analysis may be more physically justified and instructive than traditional geographic and/or seasonal binning. The dependence of convective spectra on several environmental forcing parameters is presented, including surface Bowen ratio (sensible heat to total turbulent flux), net atmospheric radiative flux convergence and net atmospheric enthalpy flux convergence. The latter are basic drivers of net moisture convergence in simple quasi-equilibrium models of tropical atmospheric convection.

Boccippio, D.↗

Large-Scale Tropospheric Transport in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Simulations

Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. Here we show that there are large differences in the global-scale atmospheric transport properties among the models participating in the IGAC SPARC Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifically, we find up to 40% differences in the transport timescales connecting the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface to the Arctic and to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, where the mean age ranges between 1.7 and 2.6 years. We show that these differences are related to large differences in vertical transport among the simulations, in particular to differences in parameterized convection over the oceans. While stronger convection over NH midlatitudes is associated with slower transport to the Arctic, stronger convection in the tropics and subtropics is associated with faster interhemispheric transport. We also show that the differences among simulations constrained with fields derived from the same reanalysis products are as large as (and in some cases larger than) the differences among free-running simulations, most likely due to larger differences in parameterized convection. Our results indicate that care must be taken when using simulations constrained with analyzed winds to interpret the influence of meteorology on tropospheric composition.

Orbe, Clara↗