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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Distribution of SLS Integrated Load Uncertainty to Surface Pressures and Sectional Loads

Aerodynamic loads that are important to launch vehicle programs such as NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) include both integrated loads such as the force & moment on the entire vehicle and distributed loads. In this work two examples of distributed loads are considered: the pressure field on the surface of the vehicle and sectional loads, which are one-dimensional distributions along the axis of the launch vehicle. In some modern flight programs, the integrated loads, such as lift and drag, used to design the guidance and control laws for the vehicle come from wind tunnel testing, while distributed loads are produced using Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD). The first task that is addressed in this paper, then, is to provide a formal method to adjust the distributed loads so that integrating them matches the prescribed integrated load. In addition, the integrated loads in a launch vehicle typically include an uncertainty estimate. The second task is to distribute this prescribed integrated uncertainty to each point in a distributed load. Both tasks are addressed using the same technique, which is to create distributed load profiles that isolate adjustments to one integrated load while leaving the others unaffected. These adjustments are informed by Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) of the entire CFD-based distributed load database. Once applied, the adjusted distributed loads can be used to evaluate any scalar quantity of interest that might be needed by downstream users such as structural analysis or trajectory modelers.

SLS↗
NASA NTRS1994

The effects of Kelvin-Helmholtz instability on resonance absorption layers in coronal loops

One of the long-standing uncertainties in the wave-resonance theory of coronal heating is the stability of the resonance layer. The wave motions in the resonance layer produce highly localized shear flows which vary sinusoidally in time with the resonance period. This configuration is potentially susceptible to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI), which can enhance small-scale structure and turbulent broadening of shear layers on relatively rapid ideal timescales. We have investigated numerically the response of a characteristic velocity profile, derived from resonance absorption models, to finite fluid perturbations comparable to photospheric fluctuations. We find that the KHI primarily should affect long (approximately greater than 6 x 10(exp 4) km) loops where higher velocity flows (M approximately greater than 0.2) exist in resonance layers of order 100 km wide. There, the Kelvin-Helmholtz growth time is comparable to or less than the resonance quarter-period, and the potentially stabilizing magnetic effects are not felt until the instability is well past the linear growth stage. Not only is the resonance layer broadened by the KHI, but also the convective energy transport out of the resonance layer is increased, thus adding to the efficiency of the wave-resonance heating process. In shorter loops, e.g., those in bright points and compact flares, the stabilization due to the magnetic field and the high resonance frequency inhibit the growth of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability beyond a minimal level.

Karpen, Judith T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Comparison of Perturbed Initial Conditions and Multiphysics Ensembles in a Severe Weather Episode in Spain

Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.

severe weather↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Model-Based, Bayesian Solution for Characterization of Complex Damage Scenarios in Aerospace Composite Structures

Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined.

H. Reed↗
NASA NTRS1994

A Robust Control Design Framework for Substructure Models

A framework for designing control systems directly from substructure models and uncertainties is proposed. The technique is based on combining a set of substructure robust control problems by an interface stiffness matrix which appears as a constant gain feedback. Variations of uncertainties in the interface stiffness are treated as a parametric uncertainty. It is shown that multivariable robust control can be applied to generate centralized or decentralized controllers that guarantee performance with respect to uncertainties in the interface stiffness, reduced component modes and external disturbances. The technique is particularly suited for large, complex, and weakly coupled flexible structures.

Lim, Kyong B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

First Directly Retrieved Global Distribution of Tropospheric Column Ozone from GOME: Comparison with the GEOS-CHEM Model

We present the first directly retrieved global distribution of tropospheric column ozone from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) ultraviolet measurements during December 1996 to November 1997. The retrievals clearly show signals due to convection, biomass burning, stratospheric influence, pollution, and transport. They are capable of capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of tropospheric column ozone in response to regional or short time-scale events such as the 1997-1998 El Nino event and a 10-20 DU change within a few days. The global distribution of tropospheric column ozone displays the well-known wave-1 pattern in the tropics, nearly zonal bands of enhanced tropospheric column ozone of 36-48 DU at 20degS-30degS during the austral spring and at 25degN-45degN during the boreal spring and summer, low tropospheric column ozone of <30 DU uniformly distributed south of 35 S during all seasons, and relatively high tropospheric column ozone of >33 DU at some northern high-latitudes during the spring. Simulation from a chemical transport model corroborates most of the above structures, with small biases of <+/-5 DU and consistent seasonal cycles in most regions, especially in the southern hemisphere. However, significant positive biases of 5-20 DU occur in some northern tropical and subtropical regions such as the Middle East during summer. Comparison of GOME with monthly-averaged Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus in-service Aircraft (MOZAIC) tropospheric column ozone for these regions usually shows good consistency within 1 a standard deviations and retrieval uncertainties. Some biases can be accounted for by inadequate sensitivity to lower tropospheric ozone, the different spatiotemporal sampling and the spatiotemporal variations in tropospheric column ozone.

Liu, Xiong↗
NASA NTRS2006

Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Role of Probabilistic Micromechanics Modeling in Establishing Design Allowables in Composites

One of the major challenges in designing with any new material, and particularly with advanced composite materials, is the fidelity of material design allowables. In the case of composite materials, the concern arises from the inherent nature of these materials, i.e., their heterogeneous make-up and the various factors that affect their properties in a specific design environment. Composites have various scales - micro, macro, laminate and structural, as well as numerous other fabrication related parameters. Many advanced composites in aerospace applications involve complex two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and requires high-temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these, the observed behavior of composite materials shows scatter. Evaluating the effect of each of these variables on the observed scatter in composite properties solely by teSting is cost and time prohibitive. One alternative is to evaluate these effects by computational simulation. The authors have developed probabilistic composite micromechanics techniques by combining woven composite micromechanics and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques to address these issues. In this paper these techniques will be described and demonstrated through selected examples. Results in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of the composite properties of a MI (melt-infiltrated) SiC/SiC (silicon carbide fiber in a silicon carbide matrix) Composite will be presented. A CDF is a relationship defined by the value of the property (the response variable) with respect to the cumulative probability of occurrence. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Sensitivity information is very valuable in quality control. How these results can be utilized to develop design allowables so that these materials may be used by structural analysts/designers will also be discussed.

Mital, Subodh K.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An Idealized Short Period Comet Model: Surface Insolation, H2O Flux, Dust Flux and Mantle Evolution

The present cometary activity model integrates feedback processes that involve the transport of heat, gas, and dust, as well as dust mantle development, and includes the effects of latitude, rotation, and spin orientation. Attention is given to the development, structural change, and distribution of dust mantles and their mutual interaction with ice surface temperature and gas and dust production. The results obtained suggest that an initially homogeneous, short period comet with a cosmic dust to water ice ratio, as well as typical orbit, rotation rate, and grain size distribution, would develop only a thin, less than 1 mm cyclic mantle at all points on the nucleus. Most H2O dust histories deduced from brightness data are noted to be in reasonable agreement with the model, allowing for uncertainty in radius and albedo. The exceptional case of Comet Encke is discussed.

Fanale, F. P.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Synthesis of fine-pointing control systems for large, flexible spacecraft

This paper considers the problem of designing attitude control systems for large space structures (LSS). The difficulties in control systems design, which arise because of special dynamic characteristics of LSS, are described, and methods for overcoming them using two types of controllers are presented. The first type of controller considered is a model-based compensator (MBC), and the second is the 'dissipative' controller which employs output feedback. Based on the numerical and analytical results obtained, the MBC can offer good performance under normal conditions, while the dissipative controller offers more robustness but perhaps reduced performance in situations involving large uncertainties.

Joshi, Suresh M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Simulation of probabilistic wind loads and building analysis

Probabilistic wind loads likely to occur on a structure during its design life are predicted. Described here is a suitable multifactor interactive equation (MFIE) model and its use in the Composite Load Spectra (CLS) computer program to simulate the wind pressure cumulative distribution functions on four sides of a building. The simulated probabilistic wind pressure load was applied to a building frame, and cumulative distribution functions of sway displacements and reliability against overturning were obtained using NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), a stochastic finite element computer code. The geometry of the building and the properties of building members were also considered as random in the NESSUS analysis. The uncertainties of wind pressure, building geometry, and member section property were qualified in terms of their respective sensitivities on the structural response.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Black Hole Mergers as Probes of Structure Formation

Intense structure formation and reionization occur at high redshift, yet there is currently little observational information about this very important epoch. Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole (MBH) mergers can provide us with important clues about the formation of structures in the early universe. Past efforts have been limited to calculating merger rates using different models in which many assumptions are made about the specific values of physical parameters of the mergers, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a very wide range (0.1 - 104 mergers/year). Here we develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of MBH mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z 5 - 30 structure formation era. We do this by generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH mass, BH mass ratio, redshift, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This allows us to constrain the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our methodology works well at estimating merger parameters, consistently giving results within 1- of the input parameter values. We also discover that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models. This helps our method be robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach, which at this stage constitutes a proof of principle, can be readily extended to physical models and to more general problems in cosmology and gravitational wave astrophysics.

Alicea-Munoz, E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

An idealized short-period comet model - Surface insolation, H2O flux, dust flux, and mantle evolution

The present cometary activity model integrates feedback processes that involve the transport of heat, gas, and dust, as well as dust mantle development, and includes the effects of latitude, rotation, and spin axis orientation. Attention is given to the development, structural change, and distribution of dust mantles and their mutual interaction with ice surface temperature and gas and dust production. The results obtained suggest that an initially homogeneous, short period comet with a cosmic dust-to-water ice ratio, as well as typical orbit, rotation rate, and grain size distribution, would develop only a thin, less than 1 mm cyclic mantle at all points on the nucleus. Most H2O dust histories deduced from brightness data are noted to be in reasonable agreement with the model, allowing for uncertainty in radius and albedo. The exceptional case of Comet Encke is discussed.

Fanale, F. P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Path-Integrated Attenuation from Airborne X-Band Radar and Passive Radiometer Measurements: Implication for Rainfall Measurements

This study compares path-integrated attenuation (PIA), in precipitation over the ocean, derived from a single-frequency X-band radar, using the surface reference technique (SRT), with that deduced from a radiometer also operating at X band. The data were collected during TRMM field campaigns. The PIA derived from radar using the SRT does not involve any assumptions regarding the precipitation but it assumes that the cross-section of the surface is stable, that is, it is not significantly altered by factors such as surface roughness. The PIA deduced from the radiometer, however, involves assumptions regarding the temperature and emissivity of the surface and absorption and scattering by the intervening precipitation, which in turn depend upon the size, concentration and composition of the precipitation particles. The comparison of the PIA from the two instruments serves not only as a check between the radar and the radiometer but also may yield insights into the structure of the intervening precipitation. Such study can provide valuable information for TRMM in which both radar and radiometers are used for rain measurements. The radiometer PIA was first deduced from the brightness temperature using a simple one-layer radiative transfer model assuming no scattering, an isothermal atmosphere. The initial results show a general agreement between the PIAs deduced from the two instruments. Largo disagreement was found at high values of PIAs that may have been caused saturation of the X-band brightness temperature or by uncertainties in wind roughening of the sea surface that affects the SRT. Further results including the effects of scattering and a non-isothermal atmosphere will be shown at the conference.

Tian, Lin↗
NASA NTRS1995

Issues in protection from galactic cosmic rays

Radiation risks to astronauts depend on the microscopic fluctuations of energy absorption events in specific tissues. These fluctuations depend not only on the space environment but also on the modifications of that environment by the shielding provided by structures surrounding the astronauts and the attenuation characteristics of the astronaut's body. The effects of attenuation within the shield and body depends on the tissue biological response to these microscopic fluctuations. In the absence of an accepted method for estimating astronaut risk, we examined the attenuation characteristics using conventional linear energy transfer (LET)-dependent quality factors (as one means of representing relative biological effectiveness, RBE) and a track-structure repair model to fit cell transformation (and inactivation) data in the C3H10 T1/2 mouse cell system obtained for various ion beams. Although the usual aluminum spacecraft shield is effective in reducing dose equivalent with increasing shield thickness, cell transformation rates are increased for thin aluminum shields. Clearly, the exact nature of the biological response to LET and track width is critical to evaluation of biological protection factors provided by a shield design. A significant fraction of biological injury results from the LET region above 100 keV/mu m. Uncertainty in nuclear cross-sections results in a factor of 2-3 in the transmitted LET spectrum beyond depths of 15 g/cm2, but even greater uncertainty is due to the combined effects of uncertainty in biological response and nuclear parameters. Clearly, these uncertainties must be reduced before the shield design can be finalised.

NASA Discipline Number 45-10↗
NASA NTRS2004

Preliminary Convective-Radiative Heating Environments for a Neptune Aerocapture Mission

Convective and radiative heating environments have been computed for a three-dimensional ellipsled configuration which would perform an aerocapture maneuver at Neptune. This work was performed as part of a one-year Neptune aerocapture spacecraft systems study that also included analyses of trajectories, atmospheric modeling, aerodynamics, structural design, and other disciplines. Complementary heating analyses were conducted by separate teams using independent sets of aerothermodynamic modeling tools (i.e. Navier-Stokes and radiation transport codes). Environments were generated for a large 5.50 m length ellipsled and a small 2.88 m length ellipsled. Radiative heating was found to contribute up to 80% of the total heating rate at the ellipsled nose depending on the trajectory point. Good agreement between convective heating predictions from the two Navier-Stokes solvers was obtained. However, the radiation analysis revealed several uncertainties in the computational models employed in both sets of codes, as well as large differences between the predicted radiative heating rates.

Hollis, Brian R.↗