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DOE OSTI2020

Ronchi shearing interferometry for wavefronts with circular symmetry

Ronchi testing of a focused electromagnetic wave has in the last few years been used extensively at X-ray free-electron laser (FEL) facilities to qualitatively evaluate the wavefront of the beam. It is a quick and straightforward test, is easy to interpret on the fly, and can be used to align phase plates that correct the focus of aberrated beams. In general, a single Ronchigram is not sufficient to gain complete quantitative knowledge of the wavefront. However the compound refractive lenses that are commonly used at X-ray FELs exhibit a strong circular symmetry in their aberration, and this can be exploited. Furthermore, a simple algorithm that uses a single recorded Ronchigram to recover the full wavefront of a nano-focused beam, assuming circular symmetry, is presented, and applied to experimental measurements at the Matter in Extreme Conditions instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transcriptional Control of hgcAB by an ArsR-Like Regulator in Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii ND132

The hgcAB gene pair encodes mercury (Hg) methylation capability in a diverse group of microorganisms, but its evolution and transcriptional regulation remain unknown. Working from the possibility that the evolutionary function of HgcAB may not be Hg methylation, we test a possible link to arsenic resistance. Using model Hg methylator Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii ND132, we evaluated transcriptional control of hgcAB by a putative ArsR encoded upstream and cotranscribed with hgcAB. This regulator shares homology with ArsR repressors of arsenic resistance and S-adenosylhomocysteine (SAH)- responsive regulators of methionine biosynthesis but is distinct from other ArsR/SahR proteins in P. mercurii. Using quantitative PCR (qPCR) and RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) transcriptome analyses, we confirmed this ArsR regulates hgcAB transcription and is responsive to arsenic and SAH. Additionally, RNA-seq indicated a possible link between hgcAB activity and arsenic transformations, with significant upregulation of other ArsRregulated arsenic resistance operons alongside hgcAB. Interestingly, wild-type ND132 was less sensitive to As(V) (but not As(III)) than an hgcAB knockout strain, supporting the idea that hgcAB may be linked to arsenic resistance. Arsenic significantly impacted rates of Hg methylation by ND132; however, responses varied with culture conditions. Differences in growth and metabolic activity did not account for arsenic impacts on methylation. While arsenic significantly increased hgcAB expression, hgcAB gene and transcript abundance was not a good predictor of Hg methylation rates. Taken together, these results support the idea that Hg and As cycling are linked in P. mercurii ND132. Our results may hold clues to the evolution of hgcAB and the controls on Hg methylation in nature. This work reveals a link between microbial mercury methylation and arsenic resistance and may hold clues to the evolution of mercury methylation genes (hgcAB). Microbes with hgcAB produce methylmercury, a strong neurotoxin that readily accumulates in the food web. This study addresses a critical gap in our understanding about the environmental factors that control hgcAB expression. We show that hgcAB expression is controlled by an ArsR-like regulator responsive to both arsenic and S-adenosylhomocysteine in our model organism, Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii ND132. Exposure to arsenic also significantly impacted Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii ND132 mercury methylation rates. However, expression of hgcAB was not always a good predictor of Hg methylation rates, highlighting the roles of Hg bioavailability and other biochemical mechanisms in methylmercury production. This study improves our understanding of the controls on hgcAB expression, which is needed to better predict environmental methylmercury production

RNA-seq↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Theory for the Response of Tropical Moist Convection to Mechanical Orographic Forcing

Abstract Spatial patterns of tropical rainfall are strongly influenced by mountains. Although theories for precipitation induced by convectively stable upslope ascent exist for the midlatitudes, these do not represent the interaction of moist convection with orographic forcing. Here, we present a theory for convective precipitation produced by the mechanical interaction of a tropical ridge with a basic-state horizontal wind. Deviations from this basic state are represented as the sum of a “dry” perturbation, due to the stationary orographic gravity wave, and a “moist” perturbation that carries the convective response. The moist component dynamics are subject to the weak temperature gradient approximation; they are forced by the dry mode’s influence on lower-tropospheric moisture and temperature. Analytical solutions provide estimates of the precipitation distribution, including peak precipitation, upstream extent, and rain shadow extent. The theory can be used with several degrees of complexity depending on the technique used to compute the dry mode, which can be drawn from linear mountain wave theory or full numerical simulations. To evaluate the theory, we use a set of convection-permitting simulations with a flow-perpendicular ridge in a long channel. The theory makes a good prediction for the cross-slope precipitation profile, indicating that the organization of convective rain by orography can be quantitatively understood by considering the effect of stationary orographic gravity waves on a lower-tropospheric convective quasi-equilibrium state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Battery Abuse Testing

Abuse tests are designed to determine the safe operating limits of HEV\PHEV energy storage devices. Testing is intended to achieve certain worst-case scenarios to yield quantitative data on cell\module\pack response, allowing for failure mode determination and guiding developers toward improved materials and designs. Standard abuse tests with defined start and end conditions are performed on all devices to provide comparison between technologies. New tests and protocols are developed and evaluated to more closely simulate real-world failure conditions. While robust mechanical models for vehicles and vehicle components exist, there is a gap for mechanical modeling of EV batteries. The challenge with developing a mechanical model for a battery is the heterogeneous nature of the materials and components (polymers, metals, metal oxides, liquids). This year saw the stand up of a new drop tower tester capable of providing dynamic mechanical test results.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

I.6.C Battery Safety Testing

Abuse tests are designed to determine the safe operating limits of HEV\PHEV energy storage devices. Testing is intended to achieve certain worst-case scenarios to yield quantitative data on cell\module\pack response, allowing for failure mode determination and guiding developers toward improved materials and designs. Standard abuse tests with defined start and end conditions are performed on all devices to provide comparison between technologies. New tests and protocols are developed and evaluated to more closely simulate real world failure conditions. While robust mechanical models for vehicles and vehicle components exist, there is a gap for mechanical modeling of EV batteries. The challenge with developing a mechanical model for a battery is the heterogeneous nature of the materials and components (polymers, metals, metal oxides, liquids).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Organomercury Measurements from Sludge Batch 10 Simulant Studies

Researchers at the Savannah River National Laboratory have recently performed testing to evaluate the Sludge Batch 10 flowsheet using simulated sludge waste. In the course of this testing several samples were taken to determine the concentration of organomercury species resulting from sludge batch processing. These samples were submitted to the Savannah River National Laboratory Sensing and Metrology department quantitation using a mercury analyzer. The signal amplifier used to perform organomercury quantitation in the mercury analyzer experienced a malfunction in the course of analysis, leading to uncertainty of organomercury concentrations observed. Seventy-three organomercury samples from six project submissions to the Savannah River National Laboratory Sensing and Metrology department have been critically reviewed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ultraviolet H 2 luminescence in molecular clouds induced by cosmic rays

Context. Galactic cosmic rays (CRs) play a crucial role in ionisation, dissociation, and excitation processes within dense cloud regions where UV radiation is absorbed by dust grains and gas species. CRs regulate the abundance of ions and radicals, leading to the formation of more and more complex molecular species, and determine the charge distribution on dust grains. A quantitative analysis of these effects is essential for understanding the dynamical and chemical evolution of star-forming regions. Aims. The CR-induced photon flux has a significant impact on the evolution of the dense molecular medium in its gas and dust components. This study evaluates the flux of UV photons generated by CRs to calculate the photon-induced dissociation and ionisation rates of a vast number of atomic and molecular species, as well as the integrated UV photon flux. Methods. To achieve these goals, we took advantage of recent developments in the determination of the spectra of secondary electrons, in the calculation of state-resolved excitation cross sections of H 2 by electron impact, and of photodissociation and photoionisation cross sections. Results. We calculated the H 2 level population of each rovibrational level of the X, B, C, B', D, B", D', and a states. We then computed the UV photon spectrum of H 2 in its line and continuum components between 72 and 700 nm, with unprecedented accuracy, as a function of the CR spectrum incident on a molecular cloud, the H 2 column density, the isomeric H 2 composition, and the dust properties. The resulting photodissociation and photoionisation rates are, on average, lower than previous determinations by a factor of about 2, with deviations of up to a factor of 5 for the photodissociation of species such as AlH, C 2 H 2 , C 2 H 3 , C 3 H 3 , LiH, N 2 , NaCl, NaH, O$^+_2$, S 2 , SiH, l-C 4 , and l-C 5 H. A special focus is given to the photoionisation rates of H 2 , HF, and N 2 , as well as to the photodissociation of H 2 , which we find to be orders of magnitude higher than previous estimates. We give parameterisations for both the photorates and the integrated UV photon flux as a function of the CR ionisation rate, which implicitly depends on the H 2 column density, as well as the dust properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computationally evaluating high-yield metabolites for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using machine learning

The computational tool described in this report helps identify promising biological pathways that produce SAF platform molecules (either a drop-in SAF, or a precursor that can be easily converted to a drop-in SAF). The workflow the computational tool follows first identifies possible biological pathways from a user-defined metabolite. These pathways may, or may not lead to a SAF platform molecule, thus the second step involves insilico testing of the end product of each pathway to assess whether it is, or is not, a SAF platform molecule. The identification of biological pathways performed in the first step is facilitated by linking the metabolite to a biological reaction database. Pathways are found by identifying pathways in the reaction database that include the metabolite. The computational tool includes an alternative way to find pathways. The alternative way develops a Flux Balanced Analysis (FBA), and modifying the FBA to include reactions that transform the metabolite. These modifications serve as a basis for understanding, in a semi-quantitative way, if there is an increase in the flux to desirable products. The second step, in silico testing of the end-products, is accomplished by estimating key physical properties relevant to SAF. When good models are available, we have integrated those models into the computational tool. In a few instances, we have developed our own models. In all instances, we have validated the models against available measured data. Finally, we have evaluated the effectiveness of our computational tool by genetically engineering Rhodosporidium toruloides. Validation occurred without the use of a FBA, and further validation is required.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping and transcriptome profiling identify QTLs and candidate genes associated with heat stress response during reproductive development in Camelina sativa

Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz is a low-input oilseed crop that has great potential in providing sustainable feedstock for biofuels and bioproducts. Climate change is threatening production of camelina with rising global temperatures. Elucidating the genetic response to high temperatures is essential for successful breeding of heat-tolerant camelina varieties. Here, we report a combinatorial approach to identifying candidate genes associated with heat stress by quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping and comparative transcriptome profiling. A population of recombinant inbred lines (RILs) was grown in a controlled growth chamber under the high-temperature regimes for 14 days beginning at the onset of the reproductive stage. Several traits related to seed production were evaluated at maturity. The QTL analysis identified several regions with co-located traits on chromosomes 8, 10, and 12. Two RILs with contrasting phenotypic responses to heat stress were chosen for gene expression profiling via RNA sequencing. Multiple pathways and genes were found to be strongly affected by heat stress, and many genes expressed differently between the two RILs. Several genes identified within the QTL regions were considered strong candidates that may control heat tolerance during reproduction in camelina. These studies provide resources for future studies that may assist in improving the heat tolerance of camelina.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

De-Risking High-Recovery Brackish Water Desalination via Flow Reversal and Feed Flushing Using Techno-Economic Assessment

Novel desalination technologies have demonstrated enhanced performance and improved financial metrics over existing processes adopted by industry. Establishing quantitative performance targets is essential for achieving financial benefits over the current state of the art. Herein, we demonstrate how WaterTAP, a techno-economic assessment (TEA) tool, can be used to identify minimum performance metrics necessary to achieve financial benefit over using existing processes. This study evaluates the feasibility of increasing water recovery at the Chino Desalter I above 90 % through the addition of a third variable configuration reverse osmosis (VCRO) stage. Sensitivity analyses revealed flow reversal frequency, feed flushing volume (used as a cleaning step), and membrane lifespan are key factors influencing the financial viability of the VCRO process. The TEA analysis demonstrated that the system must achieve a recovery of 84 % and a 1-year membrane lifespan to have a breakeven LCOW, while achieving 90 % recovery can ultimately reduce the LCOW by 16 %. Notably, a trade-off between decreasing frictional losses and increased osmotic pressure across the recovery range, resulted in a stable specific energy consumption across the recovery range, enabling meaningful LCOW reductions without an energy penalty, a key finding that contrasts with conventional RO. This work demonstrates how TEA can guide system design by identifying key performance targets and exploring trade-offs, enabling data-driven decisions to de-risk innovative processes. These findings underscore the importance of leveraging TEA to evaluate scaling mitigation strategies and optimize inland desalination systems for sustainable and cost-effective operation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model

Modeling is an important way to assess current and future permafrost spatial distribution and dynamics, especially in data poor areas like the Arctic region. Here, we evaluate a physics-based analytical model, Kudryavtsev's active layer model, which is widely used because it has relatively few data requirements. This model was recently incorporated into a component modeling toolbox, allowing for coupled modeling of permafrost and geomorphic processes over geological timescales. However, systematic quantitative assessment of the influence of its controlling parameters on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness predictions has not been undertaken before. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of the Kudryavtsev's active layer model by Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions for input parameters and compare predictions with a comprehensive benchmark dataset of in-situ permafrost observations over entire Alaska. Predicted permafrost surface temperature is highly dependent on mean annual air temperature (r = 0.78 on average), annual temperature amplitude (–0.41), and winter-averaged snow thickness (0.30). Uncertainty of predicted permafrost temperature is relatively small (RMSE = 1 °C), when air temperature and snow depth are well constrained. Similarly, RMSE between simulated and observed ALT at stations is ~0.08 m. However, under given air temperature and snow conditions, soil water content bias can significantly affect modeled active layer thickness (RMSE = 0.1 m or 40% of the observed active layer thickness). If soil water content has a large bias, improvements in other parameters may not significantly improve the active layer predictions of the Kudryavtsev's model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of WELL certification on occupant satisfaction and perceived health, well-being, and productivity: A multi-office pre- versus post-occupancy evaluation

The WELL Building Standard (WELL) is currently one of the most comprehensive building certification programs that aim to enhance the health and well-being of building occupants. However, there is a lack of systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of WELL in achieving its goal. This study investigates the impact of WELL certification on occupant satisfaction with the workplace and occupant perceived health, well-being, and productivity. More than 1300 pre- and post-occupancy survey responses provided by the nearly same cohort of occupants from six companies in North America were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that transitioning to WELL certified offices from non-WELL certified offices had a positive impact on occupant satisfaction with the workplace and occupant perceived health, well-being, and productivity, with increases in means from pre-to post-occupancy being highly statistically significant. The majority of the studied occupant satisfaction parameters as well as occupant perceived mental health had large effect sizes. While they improved from pre-to post-occupancy, the analysis revealed small effect sizes for occupant perceived physical health and self-assessed productivity. The majority of the effect sizes for the perceived well-being parameters were large and medium. In addition to analyzing the survey responses in aggregate, the responses were examined at the individual company level to confirm the by-company and aggregate findings aligned.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Metal–support interactions in metal oxide-supported atomic, cluster, and nanoparticle catalysis

Supported metal catalysts are essential to a plethora of processes in the chemical industry. The overall performance of these catalysts depends strongly on the interaction of adsorbates at the atomic level, which can be manipulated and controlled by the different constituents of the active material (i.e., support and active metal). The description of catalyst activity and the relationship between active constituent and the support, or metal–support interactions (MSI), in heterogeneous (thermo)catalysts is a complex phenomenon with multivariate (dependent and independent) contributions that are difficult to disentangle, both experimentally and theoretically. So-called “strong metal–support interactions” have been reported for several decades and summarized in excellent review articles. However, in recent years, there has been a proliferation of new findings related to atomically dispersed metal sites, metal oxide defects, and, for example, the generation and evolution of MSI under reaction conditions, which has led to the designation of (sub)classifications of MSI deserving to be critically and systematically evaluated. These include dynamic restructuring under alternating redox and reaction conditions, adsorbate-induced MSI, and evidence of strong interactions in oxide-supported metal oxide catalysts. Here, we review recent literature on MSI in oxide-supported metal particles to provide an up-to-date understanding of the underlying physicochemical principles that dominate the observed effects in supported metal atomic, cluster, and nanoparticle catalysts. Critical evaluation of different subclassifications of MSI is provided, along with discussions on the formation mechanisms, theoretical and characterization advances, and tuning strategies to manipulate catalytic reaction performance. We also provide a perspective on the future of the field, and we discuss the analysis of different MSI effects on catalysis quantitatively.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Commercial Vehicle Electrification Evaluation Toolkit (CVEET)

The CVEET can identify and characterize charging and battery capacity challenges for class 3-8 commercial vehicle electrification, including battery electric and plug in hybrid vehicles for various trucks, vans and buses, over a wide range of vehicle operation. The tool can help build the understanding of the impact of commercial vehicle electrification on energy consumption, payload penalty, and GHG (i.e., CO2) emissions. The tool employs a quantitative approach to estimate electric vehicle energy consumption, characterize component performance and determine appropriate charging assumptions to conduct a comprehensive priority analysis of MD/HD vehicle electrification using public domain data.

Gao, Zhiming↗

DOE OSTI2023

Row selection in remote sensing from four-row plots of maize and sorghum based on repeatability and predictive modeling

Remote sensing enables the rapid assessment of many traits that provide valuable information to plant breeders throughout the growing season to improve genetic gain. These traits are often extracted from remote sensing data on a row segment (rows within a plot) basis enabling the quantitative assessment of any row-wise subset of plants in a plot, rather than a few individual representative plants, as is commonly done in field-based phenotyping. Nevertheless, which rows to include in analysis is still a matter of debate. The objective of this experiment was to evaluate row selection and plot trimming in field trials conducted using four-row plots with remote sensing traits extracted from RGB (red-green-blue), LiDAR (light detection and ranging), and VNIR (visible near infrared) hyperspectral data. Uncrewed aerial vehicle flights were conducted throughout the growing seasons of 2018 to 2021 with data collected on three years of a sorghum experiment and two years of a maize experiment. Traits were extracted from each plot based on all four row segments (RS) (RS1234), inner rows (RS23), outer rows (RS14), and individual rows (RS1, RS2, RS3, and RS4). Plot end trimming of 40 cm was an additional factor tested. Repeatability and predictive modeling of end-season yield were used to evaluate performance of these methodologies. Plot trimming was never shown to result in significantly different outcomes from non-trimmed plots. Significant differences were often observed based on differences in row selection. Plots with more row segments were often favorable for increasing repeatability, and excluding outer rows improved predictive modeling. These results support long-standing principles of experimental design in agronomy and should be considered in breeding programs that incorporate remote sensing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative analysis of Cu XANES spectra using linear combination fitting of binary mixtures simulated by FEFF9

We report x-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) is a powerful tool to probe the fingerprint of local structures, and when coupled with X-ray microscopy, the small spot size enables one to probe very specific regions of interest in a device or material, e.g. interfaces/bulk, different grains, good/bad electrical areas. In this work, we investigate the use of linear combination fitting (LCF) of XANES spectra for the particular case of Cu doping in CdTe. We show that the experimental data seem to be accurately represented by standards of Cu 2 Te and its substoichiometric counterpart, Cu 1.43 Te. We use Cu in CdTe as a case study to evaluate the accuracy of linear combination fitting using simulated standards, given that experimental standards for certain phases (e.g. Cu 1.43 Te) or defect structures (e.g. vacancies) cannot be readily obtained. We discuss how spectral features of the FEFF9-simulated standards, fitting ranges, and noise levels all dictate the accuracy of this type of analysis. We show that the greater the spectral difference between the two standards, the better the LCF is able to differentiate between the two structures and to tolerate experimental noise. Finally, we estimate the error of the fitted weights for different spectral features and noise levels and propose a framework to study local structures semi-quantitatively by using binary mixtures of FEFF9-simulated standards.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning enables reconstruction of past fire regimes from charcoal-derived fire intensity and fuel composition

Background Fire is a foundational ecological process that shapes ecosystem structure, diversity, and resilience. Quantifying paleofire regime attributes such as frequency, severity, and intensity is essential for understanding the historical range of variability in fire behavior and its ecological effects. While frequency and severity are often reconstructed in paleofire studies, quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity remain limited. Recent work has shown that maximum pyrolysis temperature—a proxy for fire intensity—and plant species type can be inferred from charcoal using transmission Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. However, the sample preparation for transmission FTIR is destructive and time-consuming, limiting application and reuse of materials for other analyses. We evaluated reflectance FTIR spectroscopy as a non-destructive alternative for reconstructing combustion temperature and plant species from laboratory-generated charcoal. We also examined the influence of contrasting airflow environments (ambient air versus nitrogen-rich) on pyrolysis temperature and plant species reconstruction prediction accuracies and compared predictive performance between a novel, neural network–based deep learning model with the traditional modern analogue technique (MAT) using k-nearest neighbor functions. As proof of concept, we apply our enhanced methodology to ancient charcoal to demonstrate applicability at improving long-term fire regime reconstructions and the ability to link paleofire records with contemporary fire ecology. Results Our analysis shows that transmission and reflectance FTIR spectra yield comparable spectral profiles. However, sample preparation for reflectance FTIR is minimal and non-destructive, unlike transmission FTIR which is destructive. We demonstrate that oxygen environments improved reconstruction accuracy relative to nitrogen-rich conditions. Finally, our deep learning neural network (DL) achieved testing accuracies of 98.7% for temperature and 96.2% for species identification, outperforming MAT’s k-NN approach (89.8% and 65.9%, respectively). A Shapley importance analysis identified 5 key spectral regions that greatly influenced the model’s temperature or species categorization. When applied to ancient charcoal, our results show historic fires from the most recent past primarily burned at low intensities (400–500 °C), reflective of natural fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests. Our results corroborate charcoal morphology data that suggests all ancient charcoal originated from burned woody plant types. Conclusions By combining reflectance FTIR spectroscopy with a deep learning approach, we provide the first accuracies high enough to confidently identify both species and temperature from laboratory-produced charcoal, improving quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity and fuel composition from paleofire records. This opens a wide range of research into the link between fire and larger drivers (i.e., climate or human) and greater ecological understanding of fire regimes beyond that of burn scars or recent observations. These methodological improvements have direct relevance for fire management by improving interpretation of historical fire behavior, informing fuel–fire relationships, and providing a scalable analytical framework applicable to both long-term ecological studies and contemporary fire science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗