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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Numerical experiments with a stochastic zonal climate model

A zonally averaged energy balance climate model is developed to generate zonal temperature variability through fluctuating meridional energy transports. Stochastic transport fluctuations are included in the model by multiplying the eddy diffusion coefficients by Gaussian random deviates. For a variability of eddy coefficients of 50 percent, the model is found to generate an interannual temperature variability of 0.03 K for the global temperature, and 0.04 and 0.05 K for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. It is shown that the temperature variability level generated is linearly related to the transport variability level introduced. An increase in the level of model-generated temperature variability and a change in the shape of variance spectra of temperature anomaly time series are obtained by switching from the multiplicative noise model to an additive noise model. The results of these model studies are compared with a time series of central England temperatures as well as GCM generated climate variability.

Schneider, S. H.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Modeling of terrain gradient for stochastically spaced rows of a measurement matrix

Terrain gradients are employed to evaluate passable regions for unmanned martian roving vehicle. Range data matrix is displaced randomly row wise at the shallow elevation angles near the skyline. The magnitude of the measurement noise in the elevation angles can approach that of the spacing of the same angle. By using a variable incremental data spacing scanning scheme, one can estimate this signal noise ratio. It is found that the error in slope estimate at far distance becomes large for a given elevation angle error. Evaluation of the in-path slopes can be expressed in terms of the inverse of the range slopes. This is because of the fact that the elevation angle is considered as a random variable while the range data are relatively less noisy. An error analysis is performed and it is found that the change of slope is a nonlinear function of the error in elevation angle.

Mediavilla, R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diverging climate response of corn yield and carbon use efficiency across the U.S.

Abstract In this paper, we developed an open-source package to analyze the overall trend and responses of both carbon use efficiency (CUE) and corn yield to climate factors for the contiguous United States. Our algorithm enables automatic retrieval of remote sensing data through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) agricultural production data at the county level through application programming interface (API). Firstly, we integrated satellite products of net primary productivity and gross primary productivity based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, and climatic variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Secondly, we calculated CUE and commonly used climate metrics. Thirdly, we investigated the spatial heterogeneity of these variables. We applied a random forest algorithm to identify the key climate drivers of CUE and crop yield, and estimated the responses of CUE and yield to climate variability using the spatial moving window regression across the U.S. Our results show that growing degree days (GDD) has the highest predictive power for both CUE and yield, while extreme degree days (EDD) is the least important explanatory variable. Moreover, we observed that in most areas of the U.S., yield increases or stays the same with higher GDD and precipitation. However, CUE decreases with higher GDD in the north and shows more mixed and fragmented interactions in the south. Notably, there are some exceptions where yield is negatively correlated with precipitation in the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys. As global warming continues, we anticipate a decrease in CUE throughout the vast northern part of the country, despite the possibility of yield remaining stable or increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling neutral defects in III-V ternary alloys with a special quasirandom structure: Analysis of As- and III-site point defects in InGaAs

While first-principles density functional theory modeling has become a vital tool to investigate defect properties in semiconductors, the lack of crystalline periodicity in pseudobinary random composition alloys, such as In 1−𝑥 ⁢Ga 𝑥 ⁢As, complicates such analyses. We present a simulation strategy to systematically take into account the variability in the local defect environment in order to predict statistical properties of neutral intrinsic defects in In 1−𝑥⁢ Ga 𝑥 ⁢As. We use a comprehensive sampling from a modest-sized 64-atom special quasirandom structure (SQS) to define a statistically representative set of defects, and use a 512-atom hypercell, a 2 × 2 × 2 supercell of SQS supercells, to achieve cell-size convergence. We articulate an equivalent site principle and describe how it constrains atomic chemical reference energies in computation of defect formation energies in pseudobinary alloys. A simple protocol for estimating reference energies for the Ga and In atoms sharing the III site succeeds in obtaining the equivalence of defects at Ga-sites and In sites in the SQS supercell, (<30 meV differences in average formation energies). For III-site defects, such as the As antisite As III , the statistical variability in formation energies is modest, ≈ 0.1–0.2 eV. The variability in formation energy at As-site defects, such as the As vacancy 𝑣 As , can be much larger, >1 eV. The As antisite is shown to be a low-energy defect and the most likely to be present in as-grown materials, just as in GaAs. All other defects are higher-energy defects unlikely to be important in native material, but potentially important in radiation-damaged material. With a strong variability in defect energies, especially on the As-site, explicit consideration of statistical variability due to compositional randomness will be imperative for meaningful and quantitative comparisons to experiment.

Density functional theory↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reliability Based Design for a Raked Wing Tip of an Airframe

A reliability-based optimization methodology has been developed to design the raked wing tip of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of composite and metallic materials. Design is formulated for an accepted level of risk or reliability. The design variables, weight and the constraints became functions of reliability. Uncertainties in the load, strength and the material properties, as well as the design variables, were modeled as random parameters with specified distributions, like normal, Weibull or Gumbel functions. The objective function and constraint, or a failure mode, became derived functions of the risk-level. Solution to the problem produced the optimum design with weight, variables and constraints as a function of the risk-level. Optimum weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to a 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. Under some assumptions, this design would be quite close to the deterministic optimum solution. The weight increased when reliability exceeded 50 percent, and decreased when the reliability was compromised. A design could be selected depending on the level of risk acceptable to a situation. The optimization process achieved up to a 20-percent reduction in weight over traditional design.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Design and performance of optimal detectors for guided wave structural health monitoring

Ultrasonic guided wave measurements in a long term structural health monitoring system are affected by measurement noise, environmental conditions, transducer aging and malfunction. This results in measurement variability which affects detection performance, especially in complex structures where baseline data comparison is required. This paper derives the optimal detector structure, within the framework of detection theory, where a guided wave signal at the sensor is represented by a single feature value that can be used for comparison with a threshold. Three different types of detectors are derived depending on the underlying structure’s complexity: (i) Simple structures where defect reflections can be identified without the need for baseline data; (ii) Simple structures that require baseline data due to overlap of defect scatter with scatter from structural features; (iii) Complex structure with dense structural features that require baseline data. The detectors are derived by modeling the effects of variabilities and uncertainties as random processes. Analytical solutions for the performance of detectors in terms of the probability of detection and false alarm are derived. A finite element model is used to generate guided wave signals and the performance results of a Monte-Carlo simulation are compared with the theoretical performance. initial results demonstrate that the problems of signal complexity and environmental variability can in fact be exploited to improve detection performance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models

Earth system models (ESMs) are the gold standard for producing future projections of climate change, but running them is difficult and costly, and thus researchers are generally limited to a small selection of scenarios. This paper presents a technique for detailed emulation of the Earth system model (ESM) temperature output, based on the construction of a deterministic model for the mean response to global temperature. The residuals between the mean response and the ESM output temperature fields are used to construct variability fields that are added to the mean response to produce the final product. The method produces grid-level output with spatially and temporally coherent variability. Output fields include random components, so the system may be run as many times as necessary to produce large ensembles of fields for applications that require them. We introduce the method, show example outputs, and present statistical verification that it reproduces the ESM properties it is intended to capture. This method, available as an open-source R package, should be useful in the study of climate variability and its contribution to uncertainties in the interactions between human and Earth systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Toward a Global Map of Raindrop Size Distributions: Rain-Type Classification and Its Implications for Validating Global Rainfall Products - Part 1

Variability in the global distribution of precipitation is recognized as a key element in assessing the impact of climate change for life on earth. The response of precipitation to climate forcings is, however, poorly understood because of discrepancies in the magnitude and sign of climatic trends in satellite-based rainfall estimates. Quantifying and ultimately removing these biases is critical for studying the response of the hydrologic cycle to climate change. In addition, estimates of random errors owing to variability in algorithm assumptions on local spatial and temporal scales are critical for establishing how strongly their products should be weighted in data assimilation or model validation applications and for assigning a level of confidence to climate trends diagnosed from the data. This paper explores the potential for refining assumed drop size distributions (DSDs) in global radar rainfall algorithms by establishing a link between satellite observables and information gleaned from regional validation experiments where polarimetric radar, Doppler radar, and disdrometer measurements can be used to infer raindrop size distributions. By virtue of the limited information available in the satellite retrieval framework, the current method deviates from approaches adopted in the ground-based radar community that attempt to relate microphysical processes and resultant DSDs to local meteorological conditions. Instead, the technique exploits the fact that different microphysical pathways for rainfall production are likely to lead to differences in both the DSD of the resulting raindrops and the three-dimensional structure of associated radar reflectivity profiles. Objective rain-type classification based on the complete three-dimensional structure of observed reflectivity profiles is found to partially mitigate random and systematic errors in DSDs implied by differential reflectivity measurements. In particular, it is shown that vertical and horizontal reflectivity structure obtained from spaceborne radar can be used to reproduce significant differences in Z(sub dr) between the easterly and westerly climate regimes observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) field experiment as well as the even larger differences between Amazonian rainfall and that observed in eastern Colorado. As such, the technique offers a potential methodology for placing locally observed DSD information into a global framework.

L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Large-eddy Simulations of Spray Variability Effects on Flow Variability in a Direct-injection Spark-ignition Engine Under Non-combusting Operating Conditions

Large-eddy Simulations (LES) have been carried out to investigate spray variability and its effect on cycle-to-cycle flow variability in a direct-injection spark-ignition (DISI) engine under non-reacting conditions. Initial simulations were performed of an injector in a constant volume spray chamber to validate the simulation spray set-up. Comparisons showed good agreement in global spray measures such as the penetration. Local mixing data and shot-to-shot variability were also compared using Rayleigh-scattering images and probability contours. The simulations were found to reasonably match the local mixing data and shot-to-shot variability using a random-seed perturbation methodology. After validation, the same spray set-up with only minor changes was used to simulate the same injector in an optically accessible DISI engine. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements were used to quantify the flow velocity in a horizontal plane intersecting the spark plug gap. The engine was operated in a skip-fired operating mode and comparisons focused on cycles that included fuel injection, but no spark event and therefore no combustion. 105 total LES engine cycles were simulated using a parallel cycle simulation approach and 3 different perturbation methods in an attempt to isolate the effects of shot-to-shot spray variability and the initial turbulent flow field as well as their interaction effects on overall engine CCVs. The experimental mean and standard deviations were reasonably well matched by the simulations, though quantitative comparisons near the injection event during the intake stroke were difficult due to the high uncertainty in the PIV measurements at these crank angles. The 3 simulation perturbation methods resulted in very similar results, though further analysis found the current parallel cycle approach may be limiting the ability of the simulations to isolate the spray and flow effects.

Cycle-to-cycle Variability↗
DOE OSTI2018

Triadic Closure in Configuration Models with Unbounded Degree Fluctuations

The configuration model generates random graphs with any given degree distribution, and thus serves as a null model for scale-free networks with power-law degrees and unbounded degree fluctuations. For this setting, we study the local clustering c(k), i.e., the probability that two neighbors of a degree-k node are neighbors themselves. We show that c(k) progressively falls off with k and the graph size n and eventually for k=Ω(√n) settles on a power law c(k)∼n{sup 5−2τ}k{sup −2(3−τ)} with τ∈(2,3) the power-law exponent of the degree distribution. This fall-off has been observed in the majority of real-world networks and signals the presence of modular or hierarchical structure. Our results agree with recent results for the hidden-variable model and also give the expected number of triangles in the configuration model when counting triangles only once despite the presence of multi-edges. We show that only triangles consisting of triplets with uniquely specified degrees contribute to the triangle counting.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Lack of QBO–MJO Connection in CMIP6 Models

Observational analysis has indicated a strong connection between the stratospheric quasi–biennial oscillation (QBO) and tropospheric Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), with MJO activity being stronger during the easterly phase than the westerly phase of the QBO. We assess the representation of this QBO–MJO connection in 30 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. While some models reasonably simulate the QBO during boreal winter, none of them capture a difference in MJO activity between easterly and westerly QBO that is larger than that which would be expected from the random sampling of internal variability. The weak signal of the simulated QBO–MJO connection may be due to the weaker amplitude of the QBO than observed, especially between 100 to 50 hPa. This weaker amplitude in the models is seen both in the QBO–related zonal wind and temperature, the latter of which is thought to be critical for destabilizing tropical convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

A bayesian approach to estimate the size and structure of the broad-line region in active galactic nuclei using reverberation mapping data

This is the first paper in a series devoted to the systematic study of the size and structure of the broad-line region (BLR) in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) using reverberation mapping (RM) data. We employ a recently developed Bayesian approach that statistically describes the variability as a damped random walk process and delineates the BLR structure using a flexible disk geometry that can account for a variety of shapes, including disks, rings, shells, and spheres. We allow for the possibility that the line emission may respond non-linearly to the continuum, and we detrend the light curves when there is clear evidence for secular variation. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo implementation based on Bayesian statistics to recover the parameters and uncertainties for the BLR model. The corresponding transfer function is obtained self-consistently. We tentatively constrain the virial factor used to estimate black hole masses; more accurate determinations will have to await velocity-resolved RM data. Application of our method to RM data with Hβ monitoring for about 40 objects shows that the assumed BLR geometry can reproduce quite well the observed emission-line fluxes from the continuum light curves. We find that the Hβ BLR sizes obtained from our method are on average ∼20% larger than those derived from the traditional cross-correlation method. Nevertheless, we still find a tight BLR size-luminosity relation with a slope of α = 0.55 ± 0.03 and an intrinsic scatter of ∼0.18 dex. In particular, we demonstrate that our approach yields appropriate BLR sizes for some objects (such as Mrk 142 and PG 2130+099) where traditional methods previously encountered difficulties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of near-terminal aircraft flight paths

The flight paths of arriving and departing aircraft at an airport are stochastically represented. Radar data of the aircraft movements are used to decompose the flight paths into linear and curvilinear segments. Variables which describe the segments are derived, and the best fitting probability distributions of the variables, based on a sample of flight paths, are found. Conversely, given information on the probability distribution of the variables, generation of a random sample of flight paths in a Monte Carlo simulation is discussed. Actual flight paths at Dulles International Airport are analyzed and simulated.

Schiess, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Range data description based on multiple characteristics

An algorithm for describing range images based on Mean curvature (H) and Gaussian curvature (K) is presented. Range images are unique in that they directly approximate the physical surfaces of a real world 3-D scene. The curvature parameters are derived from the fundamental theorems of differential geometry and provides visible invariant pixel labels that can be used to characterize the scene. The sign of H and K can be used to classify each pixel into one of eight possible surface types. Due to the sensitivity of these parameters to noise the resulting HK-sing map does not directly identify surfaces in the range images and must be further processed. A region growing algorithm based on modeling the scene points with a Markov Random Field (MRF) of variable neighborhood size and edge models is suggested. This approach allows the integration of information from multiple characteristics in an efficient way. The performance of the proposed algorithm on a number of synthetic and real range images is discussed.

Al-Hujazi, Ezzet↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic modeling for simulation of aerodynamic uncertainties in propulsion systems

The numerical simulation of the probabilistic aerothermodynamic response of propulsion system components to randomness in their environment was explored. The reusable rocket engine turbopumps were selected as an example because of the severe cryogenic environment in which they operate. The thermal and combustion instabilities, coupled with the engine thrust requirements from start up to shut down, lead to randomness in the flow variables and uncertainties in the aerodynamic loading. The probabilistic modeling of the turbopumps aerodynamic response was accomplished using the panel method coupled with fast probability integration methods. The aerodynamic response in the form of probabilistic rotor blades and splitter loading were predicted and the results presented for specified flow coefficient and rotor preswirl variance. Possible future applications of the aerothermodynamic probabilistic modeling in engine transient simulation, condition monitoring and engine life prediction are briefly discussed.

Hamed, Awatef↗
NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic modeling for simulation of aerodynamic uncertainties in propulsion systems

The numerical simulation of the probabilistic aerothermodynamic response of propulsion system components to randomness in their environment was explored. The reusable rocket engine turbopumps were selected as an example because of the severe cryogenic environment in which they operate. The thermal and combustion instabilities, coupled with the engine thrust requirements from start up to shut down, lead to randomness in the flow variables and uncertainties in the aerosynamic loading. The probabilistic modeling of the turbopumps' aerodynamic response was accomplished using the panel method coupled with fast probability integration methods. The aerodynamic response in the form of probabilistic rotor blades and splitter loading were predicted and the results presented for specified flow coefficient and rotor preswirl variance. Possible future applications of the aerothermodynamic probabilistic modeling in engine transient simulation, condition monitoring, and engine life prediction are briefly discussed.

Hamed, A.↗