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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing Relationships Between Economic and Neighborhood-Related Social Determinants of Health and Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay for Critically Ill Children With Medical Complexity Presenting With Severe Sepsis

Objectives: Of the Social Determinants of Health (SDoH), we evaluated socioeconomic and neighborhood-related factors which may affect children with medical complexity (CMC) admitted to a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) in Shelby County, Tennessee with severe sepsis and their association with PICU length of stay (LOS). We hypothesized that census tract-level socioeconomic and neighborhood factors were associated with prolonged PICU LOS in CMC admitted with severe sepsis in the underserved community. Methods: This single-center retrospective observational study included CMC living in Shelby County, Tennessee admitted to the ICU with severe sepsis over an 18-month period. Severe sepsis CMC patients were identified using an existing algorithm incorporated into the electronic medical record at a freestanding children's hospital. SDoH information was collected and analyzed using patient records and publicly available census-tract level data, with ICU length of stay as the primary outcome. Results: 83 encounters representing 73 patients were included in the analysis. The median PICU LOS was 9.04 days (IQR 3.99–20.35). The population was 53% male with a median age of 4.1 years (IQR 1.96–12.02). There were 57 Black/African American patients (68.7%) and 85.5% had public insurance. Based on census tract-level data, about half (49.4%) of the CMC severe sepsis population lived in census tracts classified as suffering from high social vulnerability. There were no statistically significant relationships between any socioeconomic and neighborhood level factors and PICU LOS. Conclusion: Pediatric CMC severe sepsis patients admitted to the PICU do not have prolonged lengths of ICU stay related to socioeconomic and neighborhood-level SDoH at our center. A larger sample with the use of individual-level screening would need to be evaluated for associations between social determinants of health and PICU outcomes of these patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atomic-Scale Structural Mapping of Active Sites in Monolayer PGM-Free Catalysts by Low-Voltage 4D-STEM

Two-dimensional (2D) materials have attracted a large amount of attention in both basic and applied fields, and scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) is often uniquely well-suited for characterizing the atomic-scale structure of these materials [1-4]. As a result, STEM is poised to significantly impact progress on platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts, which are currently under intense development to enable low-cost, commercially viable hydrogen fuel cells [5]. While recent advancements have resulted in fuel cell performance comparable to Pt catalysts by some measures [6], cell durability remains a significant challenge, limiting practical applications [7]. Catalytically active sites in PGM-free materials are proposed to be FeN4 complexes embedded in a graphene lattice (Fig. 1b) within layered or other larger materials, but this is still under debate largely due to the range of potential actives sites predicted by computational methods and lack of methods for directly validating these models [5]. Fundamental insights into the atomic structure and resulting degradation pathways of proposed active sites are therefore needed to fully understand and control cell performance and durability [6].2D materials typically make ideal samples for STEM, but those within PGM-free catalysts present additional challenges since these materials are often defect-rich, with a high density of edges, dopant atoms, etc., which significantly increase susceptibility to beam damage at standard operating voltages. This makes analysis of potential FeN4 active sites particularly challenging, since a large proportion of Fe exists at edge sites where beam-induced atomic displacements can prohibit high-resolution structural characterization [6]. Conventional dark-field imaging compounds this problem by producing less signal for a given dose and being less sensitive to light elements than dose-efficient phase contrast imaging techniques such as those enabled by four-dimensional (4D)-STEM [8-10] (Fig. 1a). Consequently, active site structural analysis is often left to methods such as low-resolution imaging combined with quantum chemical calculations [6], which hinders accurate determination of reaction and degradation mechanisms.Here, we demonstrate direct atomic-scale structural mapping of FeN4 sites by performing low-voltage 4D-STEM on a model PGM-free catalyst system with many exposed monolayer regions. To accomplish this, we pair a 30 keV aberration-corrected probe with a fast pixelated detector that has optimal performance at low beam voltages [11]. This enables us to simultaneously image light and heavy elements with high signal-to-noise by center-of-mass analysis (Fig. 1c) while minimizing beam-induced atomic displacements at sensitive sites. The monolayer nature of these materials additionally allows for experimental validation by direct comparison with multislice simulations [12] of model structures (Fig. 1d-e). This work demonstrates how low-voltage 4D-STEM will provide new insights into the atomic-scale structure and degradation mechanisms of active sites in PGM-free catalysts, facilitating the development of low-cost hydrogen fuel cells and other energy conversion technologies in the future [13].

Zachman, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2024

Introducing Molecular Hypernetworks for Discovery in Multidimensional Metabolomics Data

Orthogonal separations of data from high-resolution mass spectrometry can provide insight into sample composition and address challenges of complete annotation of molecules in untargeted metabolomics. “Molecular networks” (MNs), as used in the Global Natural Products Social Molecular Networking platform, are a prominent strategy for exploring and visualizing molecular relationships and improving annotation. MNs are mathematical graphs showing the relationships between measured multidimensional data features. MNs also show promise for using network science algorithms to automatically identify targets for annotation candidates and to dereplicate features associated with a single molecular identity. Here, this paper introduces “molecular hypernetworks” (MHNs) as more complex MN models able to natively represent multiway relationships among observations. Compared to MNs, MHNs can more parsimoniously represent the inherent complexity present among groups of observations, initially supporting improved exploratory data analysis and visualization. MHNs also promise to increase confidence in annotation propagation, for both human and analytical processing. We first illustrate MHNs with simple examples, and build them from liquid chromatography- and ion mobility spectrometry-separated MS data. We then describe a method to construct MHNs directly from existing MNs as their “clique reconstructions”, demonstrating their utility by comparing examples of previously published graph-based MNs to their respective MHNs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Long-Term Environmental Monitoring Systems (ALTEMIS) Artificial Intelligence Data Management Plan

Across the Department of Energy’s Environmental and Legacy Management sites, complex groundwater plumes exist that will require long-term monitoring to ensure remedial actions that have been put in place remain effective decades into the future. The current monitoring paradigm predominantly consists of groundwater well sampling, whereby samples are collected, concentrations analyzed, and plume anomalies are detected after they have occurred. The Advanced Long Term Environmental Monitoring Systems (ALTEMIS) program is a multi-lab, multi-institution team of researchers that is deploying spatially integrative technologies (i.e., real-time in situ sensor networks), coupled with artificial intelligence and machine learning, to establish a more proactive monitoring paradigm. Within this approach, plume anomalies can be predicted, and corrective actions can be established prior to the occurrence, offering a more cost-effective and robust approach to long-term monitoring. The team has deployed a variety of different in situ sensing technologies at the Savannah River Site’s F-Area Hazardous Waste Management Facility around the F-Area Seepage Basins, which are unlined basins that received 7 billion liters of acidic low-level radioactive waste from the 1950s until the late 1980s. The technologies and techniques that the team is deploying are intended to ensure that the remedial actions that have been taken by the site remain effective decades into the future. Foundational to this approach is a robust, integrated data management and analysis plan to ensure accurate and timely reporting from the variety of sensor systems that are in place. This report will outline the data management plan that has been implemented by the ALTEMIS team at the Savannah River Site and will serve as a blueprint as the technology is translated to new sites across the DOE Complex.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Persistent Structure and Frustrated Magnetism in High Entropy Rare-Earth Zirconates

The configurational complexity and distinct local atomic environments of high entropy oxides remain largely unexplored, leaving structure-property relationships and the hypothesis that the family offers rich tunability for applications ambiguous. This work investigates the influence of cation size and materials synthesis in determining the resulting structure and magnetic properties of a family of high entropy rare-earth zirconates (HEREZs, nominal composition RE 2 Zr 2 O 7 with RE = rare-earth element combinations including Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, La, or Sc). Here, the structural characterization of the series is examined through synchrotron X-ray diffraction and pair distribution function analysis, and electron microscopy, demonstrating average defect-fluorite structures with considerable local disorder, in all samples. The surface morphology and particle sizes are found to vary significantly with preparation method, with irregular micron-sized particles formed by high temperature sintering routes, spherical nanoparticles resulting from chemical co-precipitation methods, and porous nanoparticle agglomerates resulting from polymer steric entrapment synthesis. In agreement with the disordered cation distribution found across all samples, magnetic measurements indicate that all synthesized HEREZs show frustrated magnetic behavior, as seen in a number of single-component RE 2 Zr 2 O 7 pyrochlore oxides. These findings advance the understanding of the local structure of high entropy oxides and demonstrate strategies for designing nanostructured morphologies in the class.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

CH 4 Activation over Perovskite Catalysts: True Density and Reactivity of Active Sites

The high thermal stability of perovskites has drawn attention toward their applications for catalytic CH 4 activation and conversion, typically occurring at high temperatures. The reaction rates of perovskite catalysts for CH 4 combustion, however, trail behind those of noble metal catalysts. Ways to optimize the performance of perovskite catalysts are destined to trial-and-error approaches unless their complex reconstructed surfaces are correlated with fundamental kinetic parameters. Discerning the intrinsic activity of surface catalytic sites and the density of those sites is crucial to rationally envision complex metal oxides with enhanced catalytic performance. Here, the present work presents a detailed kinetic analysis of catalytic CH 4 combustion over a set of seven perovskites (SrTiO 3 , SrZrO 3 , SrFeO 3 , LaFeO 3 , LaInO 3 , LaCoO 3 , LaMnO 3 ) with various surface terminations. Steady-state isotopic transient kinetic analysis was employed to measure turnover frequency (TOF) and density of surface intermediates (N) under operando conditions. Top surface characterization elucidated performance-structure relationships between near-monolayer surface composition and intrinsic reactivity of the catalysts. By using a chemical etching procedure to expose Fe-sites at the top surface of LaFeO 3 (LaFeO 3 , HNO 3 ), its TOF was increased 4-fold, compared with the unmodified sample, although N on the surface of LaFeO 3 , HNO 3 decreased. Density functional theory simulations corroborated that surface Fe-termination and La-Fe termination offer lower energetic barriers for CH 4 activation when compared with La-termination. In general, surface reconstruction is shown as a tool to tune TOF and N to improve reaction rates. This work fills a gap in current kinetic studies of perovskites through a careful assessment and discussion of the density and intrinsic reactivity of active sites for methane combustion over well-characterized reconstructed perovskite surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

New K-feldspar Pb isotope results for Mesozoic arc crust in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A. and Canada: comparison with the Mojave-Salinia province of southern California and Implications for Baja-BC

Measurements of lead isotopic compositions in detrital K-feldspar have been increasingly used as a tool to assess sediment provenance. We compiled a database of previously published Pb isotope data from 700 bedrock K-feldspar samples and 1,423 age-corrected bedrock whole rock samples from western North American igneous and metamorphic bodies. Additionally, we report 66 new K-feldspar Pb isotope data for plutons throughout the Pacific Northwest region of the United States and British Columbia. Results show that the Pb isotope values of plutonic K-feldspar depend on the isotopically juvenile or evolved nature of underlying crust. Samples obtained from the mid Cretaceous – mid Eocene Coast Plutonic Complex, North Cascades, and Intermontane superterrane that occur west of the initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr (Sri) = 0.706 isopleth exhibit a highly restricted 207 Pb/ 206 Pb and 208 Pb/ 206 Pb values centred upon 0.83 and 2.03, respectively. Conversely, rocks overlying older continental crust further east such as the Middle Jurassic – Late Cretaceous Omineca crystalline belt, Idaho batholith, and Boulder Batholith exhibit far greater variation of Pb isotope values that parallel the 100 Ma isochron calculated from a two-stage Pb evolution model. We demonstrate that Pb isotopic results from the Idaho and Boulder Batholith region can be used to define distinctive subregions for Pb isotopic provenance analysis, and compare these signatures to the Mojave-Salinian batholith of southern California and western Arizona, as these two areas have previously been proposed as source regions for extraregional sediment that was deposited within the Nanaimo Basin during the Campanian – Maastrichtian. Future Pb isotopic analysis of detrital K-feldspar from the Nanaimo Basin of southwestern British Columbia may effectively distinguish between potential extraregional sources separated by thousands of kilometres.

Coast Plutonic Complex↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Survey of baffle plate samples, specimen machining, and hydrogen measurements

This report outlines preliminary results on the survey and characterization of irradiated baffle plate, baffle former, and flux thimble tube specimens as part of the ongoing investigation into irradiation-induced embrittlement in austenitic stainless steels at ambient (room temperature) conditions. The specimens originated from commercial pressurized water reactor (PWR) components, covering displacement damage doses ranging from approximately 0.065 to 75 dpa. Initial scanning electron microscopy (SEM) surveys revealed that specimen surfaces exhibited fine machining marks and in-service-formed oxide layers on the side surfaces of the analyzed specimens. The oxide layers revealed specific features resembling localized "pitting-like" corrosion. An additional set of specimens representing in-service oxidation is being preserved for future microstructure analysis work. As believed, this will provide additional insights into long-term material degradation in PRWs. Specimen machining challenges emerged due to a complex failure of the electric discharge machining (EDM) system located in hot area. Despite partial restoration, issues persist with the EDM’s secondary power supply, necessitating the exploration of alternative EDM or computer numerical control (CNC) machining approaches to facilitate tensile specimen preparation. Currently, low speed saw cutting is in progress to prepare specimens for hydrogen measurements and general microstructure analysis. The near-term goals include completing tensile specimen machining for advanced mechanical testing and characterizing fracture mechanisms, and stress-corrosion cracking testing, ultimately aiming to identify and mitigate the ambient-condition intergranular cracking through targeted post-irradiation annealing strategies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

RAVEN User Manual

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused to- ward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN has started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assessment capability to RELAP-7, currently under development at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activates are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with soft- ware such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explanation of the input requirements, focalizing on the input structure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Morphological instability of aqueous dissolution of silicate glasses and minerals [Nonlinear dynamics of aqueous dissolution of silicate glasses and minerals: Morphological instability]

Understanding of aqueous dissolution of silicate glasses and minerals is of great importance to both Earth science and materials science. Silicate dissolution exhibits complex temporal evolution and spatial pattern formations. Recently, we showed how observed complexity could emerge from a simple self-organizational mechanism: dissolution of the silica framework in a material could be catalyzed by the cations released from the reaction itself. This mechanism enables us to systematically predict many key features of a silicate dissolution process including the occurrence of a sharp corrosion front (vs. a leached surface layer), oscillatory dissolution and multiple stages of the alteration process (e.g., an alteration rate resumption at a late stage of glass dissolution). Here, through a linear stability analysis, we show that this same mechanism can also lead to morphological instability of an alteration front, which, in combination with oscillatory dissolution, can potentially lead to a whole suite of patterning phenomena, as observed on archaeological glass samples, including wavy dissolution fronts, growth rings, incoherent bandings of alteration products, and corrosion pitting. Here, the result thus further demonstrates the importance of the proposed self-accelerating mechanism in silicate material degradation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Multivariate Pointwise Information-Driven Data Sampling and Visualization

With increasing computing capabilities of modern supercomputers, the size of the data generated from the scientific simulations is growing rapidly. As a result, application scientists need effective data summarization techniques that can reduce large-scale multivariate spatiotemporal data sets while preserving the important data properties so that the reduced data can answer domain-specific queries involving multiple variables with sufficient accuracy. While analyzing complex scientific events, domain experts often analyze and visualize two or more variables together to obtain a better understanding of the characteristics of the data features. Therefore, data summarization techniques are required to analyze multi-variable relationships in detail and then perform data reduction such that the important features involving multiple variables are preserved in the reduced data. To achieve this, in this work, we propose a data sub-sampling algorithm for performing statistical data summarization that leverages pointwise information theoretic measures to quantify the statistical association of data points considering multiple variables and generates a sub-sampled data that preserves the statistical association among multi-variables. Using such reduced sampled data, we show that multivariate feature query and analysis can be done effectively. The efficacy of the proposed multivariate association driven sampling algorithm is presented by applying it on several scientific data sets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ptychographic reconstructions performed in real time and offline have equivalent quality

Abstract Ptychography is a burgeoning imaging technique that enables high-resolution, lensless reconstruction of complex samples by analysing overlapping diffraction patterns, making it invaluable in fields like materials science, biology, and nanotechnology. Real-time ptychographic reconstructions are gaining interest in the scientific community as they provide immediate feedback. Yet their potential to replace offline reconstructions remains uncertain, in part due to questions about the quality of the resulting images. This study quantitatively compares real-time and offline reconstructions at different overlap conditions. Offline reconstructions, using all diffraction patterns at once, and real-time reconstructions, where new frames are added to the reconstructions in small chunks as the diffraction patterns are recorded, were indistinguishable and identical in reconstruction quality. These results hold consistently across all tested overlap ratios. This study represents the first quantitative analysis of real-time ptychographic reconstruction using a growing dataset, demonstrating the potential for real-time reconstructions to replace or at least complement offline reconstructions.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deciphering phase evolution in complex metal oxide thin films via high-throughput materials synthesis and characterization

Discovery of structure-property relationships in thin film alloys of complex metal oxides enabled by high-throughput materials synthesis and characterization facilities is demonstrated here with a case-study. In this study, thin films of binary transition metal oxides (Ti–Zn) are prepared by pulsed laser deposition with continuously varying Ti:Zn ratio, creating combinatorial samples for exploration of the properties of this material family. The atomic structure and electronic properties are probed by spatially resolved techniques including x-ray absorption near edge structures (XANES) and x-ray fluorescence (XRF) at the Ti and Zn K-edge, x-ray diffraction, and spectroscopic ellipsometry. The observed properties as a function of Ti:Zn ratio are resolved into mixtures of five distinguishable phases by deploying multivariate curve resolution analysis on the XANES spectral series, under constraints set by results from the other characterization techniques. First-principles computations based on density function theory connect the observed properties of each distinct phase with structural and spectral characteristics of crystalline polymorphs of Ti–Zn oxide. Continuous tuning of the optical absorption edge as a function of Ti:Zn ratio, including the unusual observation of negative optical bowing, exemplifies a functional property of the film correlated to the phase evolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2022

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: -Discount rate estimation methods and rationale -Data sources used and data limitations -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis A version of this analysis was most recently released in 2022. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗