The Dynamic Temperate and Boreal Fire and Forest-Ecosystem Simulator (DYNAFFOREST): Development and evaluation
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Uncertainty analysis is a critical requirement in reactor simulation as it is used to quantify the reliability of best-estimate calculation. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis should characterize all sources of uncertainties in a computationally-feasible and scientifically-defendable manner. Here we employ a well-established reduced order modeling (ROM) based uncertainty quantification methodology to propagate uncertainties throughout neutronic calculations. ROM relies on recent advances in randomized data mining techniques applied to large data streams. In our proposed implementation, the nuclear data uncertainties are first propagated from multi-group level through lattice physics calculation to generate few-group parameter uncertainties, described using a vector of mean values and a covariance matrix. Employing an ROM-based compression of the covariance matrix, the few-group uncertainties are then propagated through downstream core simulation in a computationally efficient manner. This straightforward approach, albeit efficient as compared to brute force forward and/or adjoint-based methods, often employs a number of assumptions that have been unquestioned in the literature of neutronic uncertainty analysis. This manuscript argues that these assumptions could introduce another source of uncertainty referred to as modeling uncertainties, whose magnitude needs to be quantified in tandem with nuclear data uncertainties. Thus, our primary goal is to explore the interactions between these two uncertainty sources in order to assess whether modeling uncertainties have an impact on parameter uncertainties. To explore this endeavor, the impact of a number of modeling assumptions on core attributes uncertainties is quantified. The study employs a CANDU reactor model, with Serpent and NEWT as lattice physics solvers and NESTLE-C as core simulator. The modeling assumptions investigated include those related with the uncertainty propagation method employed, e.g., deterministic vs. stochastic, the few-group energy structure employed to represent the cross-sections, the resonance treatment in lattice physics calculation, the reference values for the cross-section, and the number of samples employed to render ROM compression. Results indicate that some of the modeling assumptions could have a non-negligible impact on the core responses propagated uncertainties, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach to combine parameter and modeling uncertainties.
ABSTRACT Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations provide valuable insights on galaxy evolution when coupled with observational data. Comparisons with real galaxies are typically performed via scaling relations of the observables. Here, we follow an alternative approach based on the spectral covariance in a model-independent way. We build upon previous work by Sharbaf et al. that studied the covariance of high-quality SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey) continuum-subtracted spectra in a relatively narrow range of velocity dispersion ($\sigma \in [100,150]$ km s$^{-1}$). Here, the same analysis is applied to synthetic data from the eagle and IllustrisTNG100 simulations, to assess the ability of these runs to mimic real galaxies. The real and simulated spectra are consistent regarding spectral covariance, although with subtle differences that can inform the implementation of subgrid physics. Spectral fitting done a posteriori on stacks segregated with respect to latent space reveals that the first principal component (PC1) is predominantly influenced by the stellar age distribution, with an underlying age–metallicity degeneracy. Good agreement is found regarding star formation prescriptions but there is disagreement with active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback, that also affects the subset of quiescent galaxies. We show a substantial difference in the implementation of the AGN subgrid prescriptions, regarding central black hole seeding, that could lead to the mismatch. Differences are manifest between these two simulations in the star formation histories stacked with respect to latent space. We emphasize that this methodology only relies on the spectral covariance to assess whether simulations provide a true representation of galaxy formation.
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Over the cool waters off California, a persistent and extensive deck of low-lying clouds forms atop a shallow, turbulent layer of moist air extending 500-2000 meters above the ocean, above which the air is much warmer and drier. Its west edge varies with weather and season and is typically half way to Hawaii. This cloud deck and similar cloud decks elsewhere reflect sunlight back to space, cooling the underlying ocean and indeed the entire planet. They must be accurately represented by a climate model to correctly simulate our current climate or future global warming. Most climate models suggest these cloud decks will thin and break up in a warmer CO 2 -enriched climate, so extra sunlight would reach the ocean surface and amplify warming worldwide. But these models have difficulty accurately simulating the cloud thickness and extent because the turbulent cloud-forming air currents are much too small to be simulated by their coarse computational grid. In 2012-2013, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MAGIC program instrumented a container ship transiting between California and Hawaii to observe clouds and rain, small particles (aerosols), and weather conditions. Data were obtained from 20 4-6 day cruises in each direction. This study tested whether a sophisticated ‘large-eddy simulation’ (LES) of the turbulent air motions that create the clouds in this region accurately predicts the variations in cloud properties seen across the different cruises. If so, that model is more believable for predicting cloud changes in this region in a future warmer climate. Our LES used a numerical mesh over a 6.4x6.4 km region with 50 m horizontal and 5 m vertical grid spacing to simulate the cloud-forming eddies and the sharp overlying transition between moist and dry air. To better compare with MAGIC observations, we configured our model to simulate a region that moved along with the ship. We used a weather forecast model to specify effects of the large-scale air flow. We compared our results with balloon ascents, a radar and other instruments pointed upward at the clouds, measurements of downward sunlight and infrared radiation, aerosols, and weather variables for all suitable cruise periods. Our LES was remarkably skillful in predicting the cloudiness variations measured by the ship. MAGIC also sampled mesoscale cells, regions of cloud thickening and thinning over distances of 10-50 km. An LES run over a larger region 100 km on a side shows these cells form spontaneously, enhanced by strong radiative heat loss at the cloud tops.
Abstract not provided.
Abstract not provided.
A three-dimensional (3D) planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization was added to the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) model and the first coupled atmosphere/wave "gray zone" simulations were carried out using the 3D PBL parameterization. A case study of a significant wind-wave event from 4-8 November 2020 off the US west coast was examined, with a focus on the impacts of the event within an approximate 280x280 km central California coastal region covering the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Morro Bay wind energy lease area. Simulations with both one-dimensional (1D; Yonsei University) and 3D PBL parameterizations were examined in this nest with ..delta..x=400 m. Two-way coupling was active, with near-surface winds feeding back to the wave model and bulk wave statistics feeding back to the atmospheric model. Both simulations compared favorably with buoy observations in capturing the timing and magnitude of wind speed, temperature, dewpoint, and significant wave height, as the front associated with the maritime weather system moved southward across coastal California. However, wind speed errors over land were larger. Time series of the vertical profile of winds below z=250 m from the simulations compared favorably with observations from the US Dept. of Energy Morro Bay Doppler lidar buoy. Differences between the coupled 1D and 3D PBL simulations were minor. The most notable difference was that the simulation using the 3D PBL parameterization had approximately 10 % weaker winds at the peak of the event causing 10 % lower significant wave heights. This difference was shown to be mostly due to differences in the vertical mixing treatment between the parameterizations, in particular the nonlocal downward mixing of higher momentum air in the 1D Yonsei University parameterization in convective conditions. Overall, this work demonstrates that the 3D PBL parameterization can be used in a coupled atmosphere/wave modeling framework with similar behaviors as traditional PBL parameterizations that do not provide horizontal turbulent variances and fluxes.
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Potential hazard of staphylococci and micrococci to human subjects in life support systems
SAFE is a digital computer program used to check the response of an aircraft motion simulator. SAFE drives each axis of the simulator near its acceleration, velocity and position limits, recording the simulator motions for comparison with nominal responses. SAFE also drives up to six axes at once to measure the frequency response and noise levels of each axis. Together these two measurements provide a sensitive check of the entire motion system, yet they can be completed in less than ten minutes.
Techniques and support software for the efficient performance of simulation validation are discussed. Overall validation software structure, the performance of validation at various levels of simulation integration, guidelines for check case formulation, methods for real time acquisition and formatting of data from an all up operational simulator, and methods and criteria for comparison and evaluation of simulation data are included. Vehicle subsystems modules, module integration, special test requirements, and reference data formats are also described.
This paper describes a broad based set of activities which have been undertaken at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) developing technologies necessary to emplace and operate large structures in space. Progress has been made in the development of processes and equipment needed for the in space fabrication of structural members in both aluminum and graphite composite materials. Designs for member joining attachments have been completed and the evaluation of procedures for structural assembly have been simulated and evaluated utilizing the MSFC Neutral Buoyancy Facility. A concept of a flight test necessary for flight verification of the technologies for space fabrication, assembly, and operation of large space structure is described. Recently initiated is a project to develop design characteristics of a deployable structure required for the Science and Applications Space Platform (SASP). This is being accomplished through the design, fabrication, analysis, and test of a full scale ground test article which reflects the influence of system requirements of the SASP. Development of designs for erectable/deployable structures which are modular and have various applications to large space structures is in progress.
A preliminary investigation was conducted regarding the use of throttles for emergency flight control of a multiengine aircraft. Several airplanes including a light twin-engine piston-powered airplane, jet transports, and a high performance fighter were studied during flight and piloted simulations. Simulation studies used the B-720, B-727, MD-11, and F-15 aircraft. Flight studies used the Lear 24, Piper PA-30, and F-15 airplanes. Based on simulator and flight results, all the airplanes exhibited some control capability with throttles. With piloted simulators, landings using manual throttles-only control were extremely difficult. An augmented control system was developed that converts conventional pilot stick inputs into appropriate throttle commands. With the augmented system, the B-720 and F-15 simulations were evaluated and could be landed successfully. Flight and simulation data were compared for the F-15 airplane.
A preliminary investigation was conducted regarding the use of throttles for emergency flight control of a multiengine aircraft. Several airplanes including a light twin-engine piston-powered airplane, jet transports, and a high performance fighter were studied during flight and piloted simulations. Simulation studies used the B-720, B-727, MD-11, and F-15 aircraft. Flight studies used the Lear 24, Piper PA-30, and F-15 airplanes. Based on simulator and flight results, all the airplanes exhibited some control capability with throttles. With piloted simulators, landings using manual throttles-only control were extremely difficult. An augmented control system was developed that converts conventional pilot stick inputs into appropriate throttle commands. With the augmented system, the B-720 and F-15 simulations were evaluated and could be landed successfully. Flight and simulation data were compared for the F-15 airplane.
A procedure is proposed to expand the diagnostic capabilities of the pressure tendency equation of a primitive equation NWP model by computing the pressure tendency in physical coordinates. The advantages of isolating the density advection as a diagnostic tool to understand pressure changes is shown. By simple thermodynamic arguments it is demonstrated that in areas of synoptic-scale cyclonic development, the vertically integrated density advection is more than sufficient to explain the depletion of mass over a growing depression. Consequently, the joint contribution of the net divergence and vertical motion opposes the pressure fall. This is illustrated for a case of rapid cyclogenesis in southern South America.
This report presents the assessment of an analytical tool developed as part of the NASA/FAA Tailplane Icing Program. The analytical tool is a specialized simulation program called TAILSM4 which was developed to model the effects of tailplane icing on the flight dynamics Twin Otter Icing Research Aircraft. This report compares the responses of the TAILSIM program directly to flight test data. The comparisons should be useful to potential users of TAILSIM. The comparisons show that the TAILSIM program qualitatively duplicates the flight test aircraft response during maneuvers with ice on the tailplane. TAILSIM is shown to be quantitatively "in the ballpark" in predicting when Ice Contaminated Tailplane Stall will occur during pushover and thrust transition maneuvers. As such, TAILSIM proved its usefulness to the flight test program by providing a general indication of the aircraft configuration and flight conditions of concern. The aircraft dynamics are shown to be modeled correctly by the equations of motion used in TAILSIM. However, the general accuracy of the TAILSIM responses is shown to be less than desired primarily due to inaccuracies in the aircraft database. The high sensitivity of the TAILSIM program responses to small changes in load factor command input is also shown to be a factor in the accuracy of the responses. A pilot model is shown to allow TAILSIM to produce more accurate responses and contribute significantly to the usefulness of the program. Suggestions to improve the accuracy of the TAILSIM responses are to further refine the database representation of the aircraft aerodynamics and tailplane flowfield and to explore a more realistic definition of the pilot model.
Equivalent radar reflectivity factors (Ze) measured by W-band radars are directly compared with the corresponding values calculated from a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic meso-scale model coupled with a spectral-bin-microphysical (SBM) scheme for cloud. Three case studies are the objects of this research: one targets a part of ship-borne observation using 95 GHz Doppler radar over the Pacific Ocean near Japan in May 2001; other two are aimed at two short segments of space-borne observation by the cloud profiling radar on CloudSat in November 2006. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations reproduce general features of vertical structures of Ze and Doppler velocity. A main problem in the reproducibility is an overestimation of Ze in ice cloud layers. A frequency analysis shows a strong correlation between ice water contents (IWC) and Ze in the simulation; this characteristic is similar to those shown in prior on-site studies. From comparing with the empirical correlations by the prior studies, the simulated Ze is overestimated than the corresponding values in the studies at the same IWC. Whereas the comparison of Doppler velocities suggests that large-size snowflakes are necessary for producing large velocities under the freezing level and hence rules out the possibility that an overestimation of snow size causes the overestimation of Ze. Based on the results of several sensitivity tests, we conclude that the source of the overestimation is a bias in the microphysical calculation of Ze or an overestimation of IWC. To identify the source of the problems needs further validation research with other follow-up observations.