Time-variable moment tensor inversion applied to seismic data collected at the PE1-A experiment
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Darrh, Andrea Nicole [Sandia National Laboratories↗
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Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world
Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Triaxiality of neutron-rich ruthenium nuclei studied by lifetime measurements
The breaking of axial symmetry in nuclei enables otherwise precluded behaviours, making it an interesting phenomenon to study. Experimental fingerprints such as very low-lying $2^+_2$ states suggest pronounced triaxial deformation for the neutron-rich ruthenium isotopes. Nevertheless, theoretical calculations differ in the description of the triaxial deformation and its evolution with neutron number, making experimental data crucial to understanding it. We investigated the evolution of the degree of triaxiality and $γ$ rigidity in neutron-rich ruthenium isotopes by measuring lifetimes of excited states in 108-112 Ru with the recoil distance Doppler-shift method. The experiment was carried out at the Grand Accélérateur National d’Ions Lourds using the Advanced Gamma Tracking Array coupled to the Variable Mode Spectrometer. We obtained B(E2) values for 29 transitions in the studied nuclei and compared them with fully microscopic symmetry conserving configuration mixing calculations, and phenomenological generalized triaxial rotor and triaxial particle-rotor models. The models generally reproduce the measured transition strengths, and show an increase in triaxiality with neutron number, reaching near maximum triaxiality in 112 Ru. The results are consistent with a transition from soft to rigid motion as the neutron number increases.
Heines, Johannes Sorby [Univ. of Oslo (Norway); No↗
The Potential and Cost of Carbon Dioxide Removal Using Direct Air Capture with Land-Based Wind and Utility-Scale Photovoltaics
The rapid deployment of direct air capture and storage (DACS) is critical for achieving emission targets, necessitating precise evaluation of the scale and cost of carbon dioxide removal. This study examines the availability of land, electricity generation, and geologic CO 2 storage within the United States, estimating a technical potential for low-temperature, adsorbent-based DACS to remove approximately 9 gigatonnes of CO 2 annually. By 2050, a substantial portion of this removal could be achieved at net-removed costs below $\$$300/tonneCO 2 , though costs are highly variable depending on factors such as facility scale, construction expenses, climate-dependent productivity and heating efficiency, and geologic storage conditions. In the short term, DACS deployment will help identify key research priorities for advancing technology and reducing removal costs. Concurrently, there is an urgent need for scientifically robust and standardized frameworks for monitoring, reporting, and verifying DACS performance across both established and emerging technologies and energy sources.
Carbon capture↗
Measurement of flow coefficients in high-multiplicity 𝑝 + Au, 𝑑 + Au, and 3 He + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV
Flow coefficients (𝑣 2 and 𝑣 3 ) are measured in high-multiplicity 𝑝 + Au, 𝑑 + Au, and 3 He + Au collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV using the STAR detector. The measurements utilize two-particle correlations with a pseudorapidity requirement of |𝜂| < 0.9 and a pair gap of |Δ𝜂| > 1.0. The primary focus is on analysis methods, particularly the subtraction of nonflow contributions. Four established nonflow subtraction methods are applied to determine 𝑣 𝑛 , validated using the HIJING event generator. 𝑣 𝑛 values are compared across the three collision systems at similar multiplicities; this comparison cancels the final-state effects and isolates the impact of initial geometry. While 𝑣 2 values show differences among these collision systems, 𝑣 3 values are largely similar, consistent with expectations of subnucleon fluctuations in the initial geometry. The ordering of 𝑣 𝑛 differs quantitatively from previous measurements using two-particle correlations with a larger rapidity gap, which, according to model calculations, can be partially attributed to the effects of longitudinal flow decorrelations. As a result, the prospects for future measurements to improve our understanding of flow decorrelation and subnucleonic fluctuations are also discussed.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Energy dependence of polarized 𝛾𝛾 → 𝑒 + 𝑒− in peripheral Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 54.4 and 200 GeV with the STAR experiment at RHIC
We report the differential yields at mid-rapidity of the Breit-Wheeler process (𝛾𝛾 → 𝑒 + 𝑒 − ) in peripheral Au+Aucollisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 54.4 and 200 GeV with the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC), as a function of energy $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$, 𝑒 + 𝑒 − transverse momentum 𝑝 T , 𝑝$^{2}_{T}$, invariant mass 𝑀 𝑒𝑒 , and azimuthal angle. In the invariant mass range of 0.4 < 𝑀 𝑒𝑒 < 2.6GeV/𝑐 2 at low transverse momentum (𝑝 T < 0.15GeV/𝑐), the yields increase while the pair √⟨𝑝$^{2}_{T}$⟩ decreases with increasing $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$, a feature that is correctly predicted by the QED calculation. Here, the energy dependencies of the measured quantities are sensitive to the nuclear form factor, infrared divergence and photon polarization. The data are compiled and used to extract the charge radius of the Au nucleus.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Metal concentration and leaf spatial distribution assessed by synchrotron µXRF in Brazilian nickel hyperaccumulators
Background and Aims: The limited number of known hyperaccumulator species in tropical regions, including Brazil, has hampered the development of nickel (Ni) agromining. In addition, the mechanisms underlying metal accumulation and distribution in these species remain poorly understood, despite their pivotal role in identifying species with economic potential. Furthermore, this study assessed the accumulation potential and foliar spatial distribution of metals in three Brazilian hyperaccumulator species (Pfaffia sarcophylla, Justicia lanstyakii, and Lippia lupulina) growing in one of the world’s largest mafic–ultramafic complexes. Methods Concentrations of Ni and other metals in leaves were determined using portable X-ray fluorescence (pXRF) and inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). Synchrotron-based X-ray microfluorescence (SR-µXRF) was employed to map the spatial distribution of metals across intact leaves. Results: The results revealed leaf Ni concentrations ranging from 320 to 1,950 mg kg⁻ 1 in P. sarcophylla, 1,640 to 6,810 mg kg⁻ 1 in L. lupulina, and 1,990 to 4,900 mg kg⁻ 1 in J. lanstyakii. Nickel, Mn, and Co exhibited similar distribution patterns, concentrating mainly in the leaf margins and veins across all species, while Ca, K, and Mg co-localization suggests regulatory mechanisms for adaptation. Conclusion: Although these plants exhibited Ni hyperaccumulation, our findings suggest limited commercial potential for agromining. Further research on genetic variability and nutrient assimilation, particularly in P. sarcophylla, is recommended to elucidate the mechanisms underlying Ni accumulation and intraspecific variability.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings
Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
A generalizable machine learning-assisted fast Fourier transform algorithm to simulate the large strain phenomena in polycrystalline materials
Machine learning methods have shown initial promise in constitutive modeling for single crystals or homogenized polycrystals, delivering notable computational efficiency. However, existing machine learning-based constitutive models often lack generalizability, limiting their application across diverse boundary value problems. This study introduces a thermodynamics-informed artificial neural network model to accelerate rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform simulations for cross-scale deformation behaviors of polycrystals under complex loading. Our model integrates microstructural variability and local interactions effectively. To address local effects in each grain, we employ K-means clustering to group Gauss points within the microstructure into clusters assumed to be in similar mechanical states. This approach, based on self-clustering analysis, extends model scope from macroscopic stress response to the granular level, capturing mechanical responses and orientation evolution across grains. This reduces the number of nonlinear problems to solve, with cluster responses propagated throughout each group. The thermodynamics-based artificial neural network-extracted features are further processed using local material state clusters to account for history-dependent deformation and evolving microstructures. Additionally, representative volume element simulations with rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform provide reliable datasets for model training. The proposed model demonstrates high efficiency, accuracy, self-consistency, and enhanced generalizability in predicting strain–stress responses and orientation evolution at both individual grain and aggregate scales under complex loading conditions, such as biaxial tension and arbitrary loading scenarios.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Informative and non-informative decomposition of turbulent flow fields
Not all the information in a turbulent field is relevant for understanding particular regions or variables in the flow. Here, we present a method for decomposing a source field into its informative Φ I (x, t) and residual Φ R (x, t) components relative to another target field. The method is referred to as informative and non-informative decomposition (IND). All the necessary information for physical understanding, reduced-order modelling and control of the target variable is contained in Φ I (x, t), whereas Φ R (x, t) offers no substantial utility in these contexts. The decomposition is formulated as an optimisation problem that seeks to maximise the time-lagged mutual information of the informative component with the target variable while minimising the mutual information with the residual component. The method is applied to extract the informative and residual components of the velocity field in a turbulent channel flow, using the wall shear stress as the target variable. We demonstrate the utility of IND in three scenarios: (i) physical insight into the effect of the velocity fluctuations on the wall shear stress; (ii) prediction of the wall shear stress using velocities far from the wall; and (iii) development of control strategies for drag reduction in a turbulent channel flow using opposition control. In case (i), IND reveals that the informative velocity related to wall shear stress consists of wall-attached high- and low-velocity streaks, collocated with regions of vertical motions and weak spanwise velocity. This informative structure is embedded within a larger-scale streak–roll structure of residual velocity, which bears no information about the wall shear stress. In case (ii), the best-performing model for predicting wall shear stress is a convolutional neural network that uses the informative component of the velocity as input, while the residual velocity component provides no predictive capabilities. Finally, in case (iii), we demonstrate that the informative component of the wall-normal velocity is closely linked to the observability of the target variable and holds the essential information needed to develop successful control strategies.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
ELM–Wet: Inclusion of a Wet–Landunit With Sub–Grid Representation of Eco–Hydrological Patches and Hydrological Forcing Improves Methane Emission Estimations in the E3SM Land Model (ELM)
Wetlands are the largest emitters of biogenic methane (CH 4 ) and represent the highest source of uncertainty in global CH 4 budgets. Here, we aim to improve the realism of wetland representation in the U.S. Department of Energy's Exascale Earth System Model land surface model, ELM, thereby reducing uncertainty of CH 4 flux predictions. We develop an updated version, ELM-Wet, where we activate a separate landunit for wetlands that handles multiple wetland-specific eco-hydrological patch functional types. We introduce more realistic hydrological forcing through prescribing site-level constraints on surface water elevation, which allows resolving different sustained inundation depth for different patches, and if data exists, prescribing inundation depth. We modified the calculation of aerenchyma transport diffusivity based on observed conductance per leaf area for different vegetation types. We use Bayesian Optimization to parameterize CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in the developed wet-landunit. Site-level simulations of a coastal non-tidal freshwater wetland in Louisiana were performed with the updated model. Eddy covariance observations of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from 2012 to 2013 were used to train the model and data from 2021 were used for validation. Patch-specific chamber flux observations and observations of CH 4 concentration profiles in the soil porewater from 2021 were used for evaluation of the model performance. Our results show that ELM-Wet reduces the model's CH 4 emission root mean squared error by up to 33% and is able to represent inter-daily CO 2 and CH 4 flux variability across the wetland's eco-hydrological patches, including during periods of extreme dry or wet conditions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The impact of low-mode symmetry on inertial fusion energy output in the burning plasma state
Indirect Drive Inertial Confinement Fusion Experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have achieved a burning plasma state with neutron yields exceeding 170 kJ, roughly 3 times the prior record and a necessary stage for igniting plasmas. The results are achieved despite multiple sources of degradations that lead to high variability in performance. Results shown here, for the first time, include an empirical correction factor for mode-2 asymmetry in the burning plasma regime in addition to previously determined corrections for radiative mix and mode-1. Analysis shows that including these three corrections alone accounts for the measured fusion performance variability in the two highest performing experimental campaigns on the NIF to within error. Here we quantify the performance sensitivity to mode-2 symmetry in the burning plasma regime and apply the results, in the form of an empirical correction to a 1D performance model. Furthermore, we find the sensitivity to mode-2 determined through a series of integrated 2D radiation hydrodynamic simulations to be consistent with the experimentally determined sensitivity only when including alpha-heating.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Validating and Comparing Energy Estimation Methods at Water Resource Recovery Facilities
Water resource recovery facilities play a crucial role in the water-energy nexus, consuming a substantial amount of energy in the United States. Growing treatment volumes and more stringent water quality standards are expected to increase the amount of energy needed to treat wastewater, but accurately estimating energy consumption and potential remains challenging due to variability in scale, treatment methods, and effluent treatment standards. In this study, we used publicly available data to evaluate the accuracy of methods for estimating energy consumption and generation, then quantified uncertainty based on key factors like flow rate, treatment level, and geographic location. To validate methods, we estimated energy consumption and generation at the facility-level, then compared estimates to self-reported data from utilities in major U.S. cities. We found that process models of treatment trains under best practice configurations were accurate relative to other methods for estimating electricity use, total energy use, and electricity generation from biogas utilization, and less complex methods based on effluent treatment level and prime movers also performed well for estimating electricity consumption and generation, respectively. Applying the evaluated methods to a national inventory of treatment facilities, we estimate that annual energy consumption ranged from 56.3 x 10^3 to 82.5 x 10^3 TJ in 2012 and 83.6 x 10^3 to 127 x 10^3 TJ in 2042. Our results indicate that not all estimation methods are suited for every use case, so we recommend that researchers and practitioners select an estimation method based on data availability and desired computational intensity.
Hodson, Abigayle↗
Fast Active-Set Thresholding Method for Nonnegative Least Squares
Nonnegative Least Squares (NNLS) is a fundamental constrained optimization problem encountered in many applications such as image deblurring, signal processing, nonnegative matrix factorization, magnetic microscopy, and hyperspectral imaging. Active-set based methods are a common class of algorithms for solving NNLS which identify the optimal variable set of the NNLS solution. They do so by iteratively solving a series of unconstrained least squares problems, identifying which variables violate the nonnegativity constraints, and then swapping variables in/out of consideration until the optimal set of variables is found. Several variations improving upon this method exist in the literature. In this work, we propose an active-set swap heuristic which further improves upon existing active-set based methods for NNLS. Our optimizations are based upon adding multiple variables to the passive set within a threshold of the smallest gradient value and removing variables within a similar threshold of the closest boundary constraint. We leverage these optimizations to yield a Fast Active-Set Thresholding NNLS (FAST-NNLS) algorithm which significantly outperforms the existing state-of-the-art NNLS algorithms for a wide range of problems. Rigorous convergence guarantees are proven for the proposed method. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method on multiple synthetic datasets and two realworld text analysis applications. In doing so, we present the most comprehensive NNLS solver comparison in the literature to date.
Cobb, Benjamin [Georgia Institute of Technology]↗
Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence
We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Monoatomic orbital-based one-dimensional topological crystalline insulator
The bulk-boundary correspondence in topological crystalline insulators (TCIs) links the topological properties of the bulk to robust observables on the edges, e.g., the existence of robust edge modes or fractional charge. In one dimension, TCIs protected by reflection symmetry have been realized in a variety of systems in which each unit cell has spatially distributed degrees of freedom (SDOF). However, these realizations exhibit sensitivity of the resulting edge modes to variations in edge termination and to the local breaking of the protective spatial symmetries by inhomogeneity. Here we demonstrate topologically protected edge states in a monoatomic, orbital-based TCI that mitigates both of these issues. By collapsing all SDOF within the unit cell to a singular point in space, we eliminate the ambiguity in unit-cell definition and hence remove a prominent source of boundary termination variability. The topological observables are also more tolerant to disorder in the orbital energies. To validate this concept, we experimentally realize a lattice of mechanical resonators where each resonator acts as an “atom” that harbors two key orbital degrees of freedom having opposite reflection parity. Finally, our measurements of this system provide direct visualization of the sp-hybridization between orbital modes that leads to a nontrivial band inversion in the bulk.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Average and Marginal Capacity Credit Values of Renewable Energy and Battery Storage in the United States Power System
As deployment of renewable resources and storage continue to significantly grow in the coming decades, these technologies will play increasingly important roles in maintaining power systems' resource adequacy. Few analyses so far offer comprehensive comparisons of forward-looking average and marginal capacity credits of variable renewable energy and storage in the U.S. interconnections across a wide range of possible futures. To fill this research gap, we quantify the average and marginal capacity credits of solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, and batteries between 2026 and 2050 across the U.S power systems to examine the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and trade-offs between these two capacity accreditation approaches. Across technologies, capacity credits of solar PV most clearly follow downward trends over time, reflecting the significant rise in solar PV generation share as the grid decarbonizes. While battery storages' generation shares also rise significantly over time, their capacity credits always remain stably high due to their capabilities to be dispatched strategically during critical periods to maintain reliability. On the other hand, capacity credits of wind technologies in general follow slight upward trends as their generation shares level off. There are strong spatial variabilities of both average and marginal capacity credits across technologies, but capacity credits of solar PV displaying the most obvious spatial patterns with high capacity credits concentrating in wind-rich, solar-poor regions in SPP, PJM, and MISO, suggesting potential reliability benefits of interconnection-wide planning for renewable energy deployments. Additionally, except for offshore wind, average capacity credits of all other renewable technologies tend to be higher than their marginal capacity credits, indicating that existing renewable resources tend to be accredited higher than new resources at almost any time.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Xanthohumol Alters Gut Microbiota Metabolism and Bile Acid Dynamics in Gastrointestinal Simulation Models of Eubiotic and Dysbiotic States
Xanthohumol (XN), a polyphenol from hops (Humulus lupulus), exhibits antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antihyperlipidemic, and chemo-preventive activity. Preclinical evidence suggests gut microbiota are critical to mediating some of these bioactivities. Nevertheless, its precise impact on human gut microbiota, particularly at supplemental doses, remains poorly characterized. We evaluated 200 mg/day XN for 3 weeks on human gut microbiota in a eubiotic and dysbiotic model using the Simulator of the Human Intestinal Microbial Ecosystem (SHIME®). Functional assessments of microbiota included quantification of XN metabolites, short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), and untargeted metabolomics of the digestive metabolome. Bacterial composition was assessed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. XN reduced alpha-diversity and short-chain fatty acid production in both models, as well as altered taxa abundance variably between models. XN disrupted bile acid metabolism through inhibition of microbial bile salt hydrolase (BSH). The modulation of bile acid metabolism has important implications for host-level bioactivity of XN.
Humulus lupulus↗