The Mars Orbiter for Resources, Ices, and Environments (MORIE) Science Goals and Instrument Trades in Radar, Imaging, and Spectroscopy
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Wendy M Calvin↗
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Assessing the Evolving Fragility of the Global Food System
The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992-2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18-year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85 of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9 (3.8) for 1992-1996, increasing to 11 (5.7) for 20052009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2 (2.2) to 14 (5.2). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.
complex networks↗
NASA Integrated Network Monitor and Control Software Architecture
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Communications and Navigation office (SCaN) has commissioned a series of trade studies to define a new architecture intended to integrate the three existing networks that it operates, the Deep Space Network (DSN), Space Network (SN), and Near Earth Network (NEN), into one integrated network that offers users a set of common, standardized, services and interfaces. The integrated monitor and control architecture utilizes common software and common operator interfaces that can be deployed at all three network elements. This software uses state-of-the-art concepts such as a pool of re-programmable equipment that acts like a configurable software radio, distributed hierarchical control, and centralized management of the whole SCaN integrated network. For this trade space study a model-based approach using SysML was adopted to describe and analyze several possible options for the integrated network monitor and control architecture. This model was used to refine the design and to drive the costing of the four different software options. This trade study modeled the three existing self standing network elements at point of departure, and then described how to integrate them using variations of new and existing monitor and control system components for the different proposed deployments under consideration. This paper will describe the trade space explored, the selected system architecture, the modeling and trade study methods, and some observations on useful approaches to implementing such model based trade space representation and analysis.
Next Generation Uplink↗
Mars Surface Habitat Concept Design
An initial Mars Surface Habitat (MSH) concept design study was conducted as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Habitation Systems Development Office’s effort to inform NASA crewed Mars architecture decisions. The study assessed the unique challenges, risks, and benefits of a surface habitation element within the Mars architecture trade space. The goal of the study was to identify unique functional capabilities necessary to support a crewed mission on the Martian surface, the unique challenges and risks associated with such an architecture, and the areas of further analysis required to make such a mission possible. Continuing NASA’s development and execution of the Moon to Mars lunar surface missions, attention will continue progressing toward the initial crewed Mars mission. To prepare for this, NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (ESDMD) has established a strategic analysis cycle (SAC) where an architectural trade space is identified and evaluated. Given that the Mars architecture and mission profile are still in this trade space, the architecture and mission considered for this study is SAC21. In addition, reference conceptual designs are being refined for the Mars Transit Habitat (TH) and MSH systems which will enable crew to safely travel to and inhabit the surface of Mars. The NASA Mars architectures trade space includes the use of a Pressurized Rover (PR) to address both crew habitation and mobility needs. This study assesses the use of a dedicated habitat via the MSH and an unpressurized terrain vehicle for crew mobility and exploration in lieu of the PR. Determining the optimum mission architecture will require continued analysis by ESDMD teams and this study is intended to support of such a study. The MSH concept design team aims to explore this area of the Mars habitation trade space, and in doing so, inform and highlight the considerations associated with a MSH in the surface architecture. It is not the intention of this study to make specific habitation or architecture decisions, but instead to provide a habitation element concept compatible with the Mars architecture trade space.
Mars Surface Habitat↗
Mars Surface Habitat (MSH) Concept Design
An initial Mars Surface Habitat (MSH) concept design study was conducted as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Habitation Systems Development Office’s effort to inform NASA crewed Mars architecture decisions. The study assessed the unique challenges, risks, and benefits of a surface habitation element within the Mars architecture trade space. The goal of the study was to identify unique functional capabilities necessary to support a crewed mission on the Martian surface, the unique challenges and risks associated with such an architecture, and the areas of further analysis required to make such a mission possible. Continuing NASA’s development and execution of the Moon to Mars lunar surface missions, attention will continue progressing toward the initial crewed Mars mission. To prepare for this, NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (ESDMD) has established a strategic analysis cycle (SAC) where an architectural trade space is identified and evaluated. Given that the Mars architecture and mission profile are still in this trade space, the architecture and mission considered for this study is SAC21. In addition, reference conceptual designs are being refined for the Mars Transit Habitat (TH) and MSH systems which will enable crew to safely travel to and inhabit the surface of Mars. The NASA Mars architectures trade space includes the use of a Pressurized Rover (PR) to address both crew habitation and mobility needs. This study assesses the use of a dedicated habitat via the MSH and an unpressurized terrain vehicle for crew mobility and exploration in lieu of the PR. Determining the optimum mission architecture will require continued analysis by ESDMD teams and this study is intended to support of such a study. The MSH concept design team aims to explore this area of the Mars habitation trade space, and in doing so, inform and highlight the considerations associated with a MSH in the surface architecture. It is not the intention of this study to make specific habitation or architecture decisions, but instead to provide a habitation element concept compatible with the Mars architecture trade space.
Ryan Hughes↗
Advanced Platform Systems Technology study. Volume 3: Supporting data
The overall study effort proceeded from the identification of 106 technology topics to the selection of 5 for detail trade studies. The technical issues and options were evaluated through the trade process. Finally, individual consideration was given to costs and benefits for the technologies identified for advancement. Eight priority technology items were identified for advancement. Supporting data generated during the trade selection and trade study process were presented. Space platform requirements, trade study and cost benefits analysis, and technology advancement planning are advanced. The structured approach used took advantage of a number of forms developed to ensure that a consistent approach was employed by each of the diverse specialists that participated. These forms were an intrinsic part of the study protocol.
Source record↗
Maintenance and supply options
The object of the Maintenance and Supply Option was to develop a high level operational philosophy related to maintenance and supply operations and incorporate these concepts into the Lunar Base Study. Specific products to be generated during this task were three trade studies and a conceptual design of the Logistic Supply Module. The crew size study was performed to evaluate crew sizes from the baseline size of four to a crew size of eight and determine the preferred crew size. The second trade study was to determine the impact of extending surface stay times and recommend a preferred duration of stay time as a function of crew, consumables, and equipment support capabilities. The third trade study was an evaluation of packaging and storage methods to determine the preferred logistics approach to support the lunar base. A modified scenario was developed and served as the basis of the individual trade studies. Assumptions and guidelines were also developed from experience with Apollo programs, Space Shuttle operations, and Space Station studies. With this information, the trade studies were performed and a conceptual design for the Logistic Supply Module was developed.
Source record↗
Intelligent data management for real-time spacecraft monitoring
Real-time AI systems have begun to address the challenge of restructuring problem solving to meet real-time constraints by making key trade-offs that pursue less than optimal strategies with minimal impact on system goals. Several approaches for adapting to dynamic changes in system operating conditions are known. However, simultaneously adapting system decision criteria in a principled way has been difficult. Towards this end, a general technique for dynamically making such trade-offs using a combination of decision theory and domain knowledge has been developed. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), a decision theoretic approach for making one-time decisions is discussed and dynamic trade-off evaluation is described as a knowledge-based extension of MAUT that is suitable for highly dynamic real-time environments, and provides an example of dynamic trade-off evaluation applied to a specific data management trade-off in a real-world spacecraft monitoring application.
Schwuttke, Ursula M.↗
A Spreadsheet Simulation Tool for Terrestrial and Planetary Balloon Design
During the early stages of new balloon design and development, it is necessary to conduct many trade studies. These trade studies are required to determine the design space, and aid significantly in determining overall feasibility. Numerous point designs then need to be generated as details of payloads, materials, mission, and manufacturing are determined. To accomplish these numerous designs, transient models are both unnecessary and time intensive. A steady state model that uses appropriate design inputs to generate system-level descriptive parameters can be very flexible and fast. Just such a steady state model has been developed and has been used during both the MABS 2001 Mars balloon study and the Ultra Long Duration Balloon Project. Using Microsoft Excel's built-in iteration routine, a model was built. Separate sheets were used for performance, structural design, materials, and thermal analysis as well as input and output sheets. As can be seen from figure 1, the model takes basic performance requirements, weight estimates, design parameters, and environmental conditions and generates a system level balloon design. Figure 2 shows a sample output of the model. By changing the inputs and a few of the equations in the model, balloons on earth or other planets can be modeled. There are currently several variations of the model for terrestrial and Mars balloons, as well there are versions of the model that perform crude material design based on strength and weight requirements. To perform trade studies, the Visual Basic language built into Excel was used to create an automated matrix of designs. This trade study module allows a three dimensional trade surface to be generated by using a series of values for any two design variables. Once the fixed and variable inputs are defined, the model automatically steps through the input matrix and fills a spreadsheet with the resulting point designs. The proposed paper will describe the model in detail, including current variations. The assumptions, governing equations, and capabilities will be addressed. Detailed examples of the model in practice will also be used.
Raquea, Steven M.↗
Rocket Propellants Engine Design/Operations/Validation
Lockheed Martin Astronautics Operations (LMA) was competitively awarded a contract May 21, 2001 for next generation launch system architecture definition and technology maturation. The Second Generation Launch Vehicle Program objectives include reducing the technical and programmatic risk of proceeding to full scale development of the system by establishing requirements for the next generation launch system and maturing critical technologies needed by the system. LMA will conduct analyses and trades to optimize the architecture ETO elements including configuration, conceptual designs, and preliminary operations definition. To fully understand the engine and propellant trades were conducted by LMA to yield the optimized architecture system from the operability, reliability, safety, and cost perspectives. A government/industry team addressed the required trade studies, the parameters and weighting factors, and the most critical trades were addressed. This report summarizes the participation of JCM Consulting, Inc. in the propellant trade study.
Monk, Jan C.↗
Clarifying Objectives and Results of Equivalent System Mass Analyses for Advanced Life Support
This paper discusses some of the analytical decisions that an investigator must make during the course of a life support system trade study. Equivalent System Mass (ESM) is often applied to evaluate trade study options in the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program. ESM can be used to identify which of several options that meet all requirements are most likely to have lowest cost. It can also be used to identify which of the many interacting parts of a life support system have the greatest impact and sensitivity to assumptions. This paper summarizes recommendations made in the newly developed ALS ESM Guidelines Document and expands on some of the issues relating to trade studies that involve ESM. In particular, the following three points are expounded: 1) The importance of objectives: Analysis objectives drive the approach to any trade study, including identification of assumptions, selection of characteristics to compare in the analysis, and the most appropriate techniques for reflecting those characteristics. 2) The importance of results inferprefafion: The accuracy desired in the results depends upon the analysis objectives, whereas the realized accuracy is determined by the data quality and degree of detail in analysis methods. 3) The importance of analysis documentation: Documentation of assumptions and data modifications is critical for effective peer evaluation of any trade study. ESM results are analysis-specific and should always be reported in context, rather than as solitary values. For this reason, results reporting should be done with adequate rigor to allow for verification by other researchers.
Levri, Julie A.↗
Influence of Transient Atmospheric Circulation on the Surface Heating of the Pacific Warm Pool
Analyses of data on clouds, winds, and surface heat fluxes show that the transient behavior of basin-wide large-scale circulation has a significant influence on the warm pool sea surface temperature (SST). Trade winds converge to regions of the highest SST in the equatorial western Pacific. These regions have the largest cloud cover and smallest wind speed. Both surface solar heating and evaporative cooling are weak. The reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds exceeds the reduced solar heating due to enhanced cloudiness. The result is a maximum surface heating in the strong convective and high SST regions. Data also show that the maximum surface heating in strong convective regions is interrupted by transient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Due to the seasonal variation of the insolation at the top of the atmosphere, trade winds and clouds also experience seasonal variations. Regions of high SST and low-level convergence follow the Sun, where the surface heating is a maximum. As the Sun moves away from a convective region, the strong trade winds set in, and the evaporative cooling enhances, resulting in a net cooling of the surface. During an El Nino, the maximum SST and convective region shifts eastward from the maritime continent to the equatorial central Pacific. Following the eastward shift of the maximum SST, the region of maximum cloudiness and surface heating also shift eastward. As the atmospheric and oceanic circulation returns to normal situations, the trade winds increase and the surface heating decreases. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds is one of the major factors that modulate the SST distribution of the Pacific warm pool.
Chou, Ming-Dah↗
Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar: Lunar Habitat Concepts
This paper will describe lunar habitat concepts that were defined as part of the Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar (CxAT-Lunar) in support of the Vision for Space Exploration. There are many challenges to designing lunar habitats such as mission objectives, launch packaging, lander capability, and risks. Surface habitats are required in support of sustaining human life to meet the mission objectives of lunar exploration, operations, and sustainability. Lunar surface operations consist of crew operations, mission operations, EVA operations, science operations, and logistics operations. Habitats are crewed pressurized vessels that include surface mission operations, science laboratories, living support capabilities, EVA support, logistics, and maintenance facilities. The challenge is to deliver, unload, and deploy self-contained habitats and laboratories to the lunar surface. The CxAT-Lunar surface campaign analysis focused on three primary trade sets of analysis. Trade set one (TS1) investigated sustaining a crew of four for six months with full outpost capability and the ability to perform long surface mission excursions using large mobility systems. Two basic habitat concepts of a hard metallic horizontal cylinder and a larger inflatable torus concept were investigated as options in response to the surface exploration architecture campaign analysis. Figure 1 and 2 depicts the notional outpost configurations for this trade set. Trade set two (TS2) investigated a mobile architecture approach with the campaign focused on early exploration using two small pressurized rovers and a mobile logistics support capability. This exploration concept will not be described in this paper. Trade set three (TS3) investigated delivery of a "core' habitation capability in support of an early outpost that would mature into the TS1 full outpost capability. Three core habitat concepts were defined for this campaign analysis. One with a four port core habitat, another with a 2 port core habitat, and the third investigated leveraging commonality of the lander ascent module and airlock pressure vessel hard shell. The paper will describe an overview of the various habitat concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suit-port airlock function such as redundant airlock(s), suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as closed loop life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other Hab units, and a common interface mechanism for future growth and mating to a pressurized rover. The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, and medical operations.
Toups, Larry↗
Passive vs. Parachute System Architecture for Robotic Sample Return Vehicles
The Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) is a flexible vehicle concept based on the Mars Sample Return (MSR) EEV design which can be used in the preliminary sample return mission study phase to parametrically investigate any trade space of interest to determine the best entry vehicle design approach for that particular mission concept. In addition to the trade space dimensions often considered (e.g. entry conditions, payload size and mass, vehicle size, etc.), the MMEEV trade space considers whether it might be more beneficial for the vehicle to utilize a parachute system during descent/landing or to be fully passive (i.e. not use a parachute). In order to evaluate this trade space dimension, a simplified parachute system model has been developed based on inputs such as vehicle size/mass, payload size/mass and landing requirements. This model works in conjunction with analytical approximations of a mission trade space dataset provided by the MMEEV System Analysis for Planetary EDL (M-SAPE) tool to help quantify the differences between an active (with parachute) and a passive (no parachute) vehicle concept.
Maddock, Robert W.↗
Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process
Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases.1 Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission.2 Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an Advanced Design Methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of Design of Experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development e ort. In order to t a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of Ground Rules and Assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated \what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are t to the outputs of each environment and are integrated via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any \what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will have the potential to lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.
Zwack, Mathew R.↗
Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process
Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases. Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission. Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an advanced design methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development effort. In order to fit a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of ground rules and assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated "what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are fit to the outputs of each environment and are "integrated" via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any ''what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will help ensure lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.
Zwack, Mathew R.↗
Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) Surrogate Models for Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) Performance Assessment
The primary purpose of the multiPOST tool is to enable the execution of much larger sets of vehicle cases to allow for broader trade space exploration. However, this exploration is not achieved solely with the increased case throughput. The multiPOST tool is applied to carry out a Design of Experiments (DOE), which is a set of cases that have been structured to capture a maximum amount of information about the design space with minimal computational effort. The results of the DOE are then used to fit a surrogate model, ultimately enabling parametric design space exploration. The approach used for the MAV study includes both DOE and surrogate modeling. First, the primary design considerations for the vehicle were used to develop the variables and ranges for the multiPOST DOE. The final set of DOE variables were carefully selected in order to capture the desired vehicle trades and take into account any special considerations for surrogate modeling. Next, the DOE sets were executed through multiPOST. Following successful completion of the DOE cases, a manual verification trial was performed. The trial involved randomly selecting cases from the DOE set and running them by hand. The results from the human analyst's run and multiPOST were then compared to ensure that the automated runs were being executed properly. Completion of the verification trials was then followed by surrogate model fitting. After fits to the multiPOST data were successfully created, the surrogate models were used as a stand-in for POST2 to carry out the desired MAV trades. Using the surrogate models in lieu of POST2 allowed for visualization of vehicle sensitivities to the input variables as well as rapid evaluation of vehicle performance. Although the models introduce some error into the output of the trade study, they were very effective at identifying areas of interest within the trade space for further refinement by human analysts. The next section will cover all of the ground rules and assumptions associated with DOE setup and multiPOST execution. Section 3.1 gives the final DOE variables and ranges, while section 3.2 addresses the POST2 specific assumptions. The results of the verification trials are given in section 4. Section 5 gives the surrogate model fitting results, including the goodness-of-fit metrics for each fit. Finally, the MAV specific results are discussed in section 6.
Zwack, M. R.↗
Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event
Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network.
Heslin, Alison↗