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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33

System for NIS Forecasting Based on Ensembles Analysis

BMA-NIS is a package/library designed to be called by a script (e.g. Perl or Python). The software itself is written in the language of R. The software assists electric power delivery systems in planning resource availability and demand, based on historical data and current data variables. Net Interchange Schedule (NIS) is the algebraic sum of all energy scheduled to flow into or out of a balancing area during any interval. Accurate forecasts for NIS are important so that the Area Control Error (ACE) stays within an acceptable limit. To date, there are many approaches for forecasting NIS but all none of these are based on single models that can be sensitive to time of day and day of week effects.

Gosink, Luke↗

Investigation of Spatial Variation of Sea States Offshore of Humboldt Bay CA Using a Hindcast Model.

Spatial variability of sea states is an important consideration when performing wave resource assessments and wave resource characterization studies for wave energy converter (WEC) test sites and commercial WEC deployments. This report examines the spatial variation of sea states offshore of Humboldt Bay, CA, using the wave model SWAN . The effect of depth and shoaling on bulk wave parameters is well resolved using the model SWAN with a 200 m grid. At this site, the degree of spatial variation of these bulk wave parameters, with shoaling generally perpendicular to the depth contours, is found to depend on the season. The variation in wave height , for example, was higher in the summer due to the wind and wave sheltering from the protruding land on the coastline north of the model domain. Ho wever, the spatial variation within an area of a potential Tier 1 WEC test site at 45 m depth and 1 square nautical mile is almost negligible; at most about 0.1 m in both winter and summer. The six wave characterization parameters recommended by the IEC 6 2600 - 101 TS were compared at several points along a line perpendicular to shore from the WEC test site . As expected, these parameters varied based on depth , but showed very similar seasonal trends.

Dallman, Ann Renee↗

Round-Robin Interlaboratory Study on Rare-Earth Elements in U.S.-Based Geologic Materials

In a study funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the University of North Dakota (UND) Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC) performed a first-of-its-kind round-robin interlaboratory study (RRIS) to determine lab-to-lab and method-to-method variability in analyzing the rare earth element (REE) content of domestic resources. Analyses of REEs on eleven different materials were accomplished by the laboratories using four different procedures: ASTM D6357 (Procedure A), ASTM D4503 (Procedure B), an alternate in-house procedure for digestion and REE analysis (Procedure C), and neutron activation analysis (NAA). The results of the RRIS suggest that NAA is the most accurate and reliable method for many of the REEs in these types of materials; however, the method is limited in that it is able to determining only ten of the sixteen REEs. Five of the seven labs reporting data for Procedure A and three of the five labs reporting for Procedure B showed excellent performance in terms of repeatability, reproducibility, agreement with NAA, and SRM recoveries based on AOAC International guidelines on method performance. This indicates that when strictly followed these methods are suitable for REE determination in most materials, although are subject to the overall capabilities and experience of individual laboratories.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

WREF 2012: THE PAST AND FUTURE COST OF WIND ENERGY

The future of wind power will depend on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve cost reductions. To better understand the potential for cost reductions, this report provides a review of historical costs, evaluates near-term market trends, and summarizes the range of projected costs. It also notes potential sources of future cost reductions. Our findings indicate that steady cost reductions were interrupted between 2004 and 2010, but falling turbine prices and improved turbine performance are expected to drive a historically low LCOE for current installations. In addition, the majority of studies indicate continued cost reductions on the order of 20%-30% through 2030. Moreover, useful cost projections are likely to benefit from stronger consideration of the interactions between capital cost and performance as well as trends in the quality of the wind resource where projects are located, transmission, grid integration, and other cost variables.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Did You Know – Transactive Energy Provides the Next Big Step in DER Integration

This is an invited blog article for the Utility Variable Generation Integration Group (UVIG) on the topic of distributed energy resource (DER) integration. Summarizes DER progress since 2004, which signifies a maturing industry. Proposes transactive energy as a means of integrating more DER without special incentives or mitigation techniques.

McDermott, Thomas E.↗

Using Salmon as a Bio-indicator of the Health of the Columbia River at Hanford - 15534

Assessing human, ecological, and cultural health and well-being on- and off-site is an important aspect of managing legacy wastes and environmental remediation on U.S. Department of Energy sites. Such an assessment is especially important at places such as Hanford because the Columbia River runs through the site. The Columbia River is central to the culture and economy of the northwest, especially to the Tribes. While a full range of other bio-indicators are used to determine the health of the river with respect to contaminants, salmon are the iconic, keystone species in the Columbia River of concern to the full range of regulators, managers, Tribes, and the public. A bio-monitoring plan that will assure the public and others that the activities of DOE are not adversely impacting the salmon populations in the Columbia River is critical for long term stewardship, both of the Hanford Site and the River and its resources Numerous factors affect salmon populations, including different life stages, habitat variables, and anthropogenic effects, including hexavalent chromium. Based on a literature review of the factors affecting populations, a conceptual model was developed for effects on salmon population stability. Salmon have a life history that includes laying eggs in gravel (redds) at the river bottom and then spending several life stages in fresh water and maturing in saltwater before they return to their natal streams or rivers to breed. All of these phases are potentially vulnerable to a range of natural and anthropogenic factors. Eggs in redds in the river bottom are vulnerable to water erosion, dewatering, oxygen levels, predators, and contaminants, while juveniles (fry, parr, smolts) are vulnerable to water currents, oxygen levels, predators, contaminants, and negotiating dams. When adults return to the river up to 7 years later, they face these same factors, as well as intense fishing pressures. The major factor affecting salmon populations may well be the fight to swim upstream, around dams, to reach traditional spawning grounds. While the data provided in this study relate to salmon at Hanford, the overall conceptual framework provides a paradigm for evaluating other sensitive indicators at other Department of Energy sites. The framework provides a method to insure the Tribes and public that the health and well-being of an important economic, cultural, and aesthetic species is being adequately addressed, and suggests the types of data needed to address the issue. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

CLM simulated data at three FLUXNET sites and three SNOTEL sites in the Colorado River Basin

This data package includes 6 csv files that include Community Land Model (CLM) simulations for three Fluxnet sites (i.e., US-NR1, US-GLE and US-VCM) and three SNOTEL sites (i.e., ER-BT, ER-SP and ER-PK) in the Upper Colorado River Basin area. Data inputs include meteorological forcing data (obtained from Fluxnet and SNOTEL databases) and CLM-simulated evapotranspiration (ET) data from 2005 to 2016. These datasets support the development of subseasonal regime approach based on statistics driven Hidden Markov Model to assess intra- and inter-annual variability of ET, which improves our understanding of climate change's impacts on water resources and ecosystem dynamics in the Colorado River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Review of Variable Generation Integration Charges

The growth of wind and solar generation in the United States, and the expectation of continued growth of these technologies, dictates that the future power system will be operated in a somewhat different manner because of increased variability and uncertainty. A small number of balancing authorities have attempted to determine an 'integration cost' to account for these changes to their current operating practices. Some balancing authorities directly charge wind and solar generators for integration charges, whereas others add integration charges to projected costs of wind and solar in integrated resource plans or in competitive solicitations for generation. This report reviews the balancing authorities that have calculated variable generation integration charges and broadly compares and contrasts the methodologies they used to determine their specific integration charges. The report also profiles each balancing authority and how they derived wind and solar integration charges.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

KONGMING: Performance Prediction in the Cloud via Multidimensional Interference Surrogates

As more and more applications are deployed in the cloud, it is important for both the user and the operator of the cloud that the resources of the cloud are utilized efficiently. Virtualization and workload consolidation techniques are pervasively applied in the cloud to increase resource utilization while providing isolated execution environments for different users. While virtualization hides the architectural details of the underlying hardware, it can also increase the variability in application execution times due to heterogeneity in available hardware, and interference from other applications sharing the same hardware resources. This reduces both the productivity of cloud platforms and limits the degree to which software colocation can be used to increase its efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Analysis of Terrestrial and Aquatic Environmental Controls of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon in the Conterminous United States

Riverine carbon cycling is an important, but insufficiently investigated component of the global carbon cycle. Analyses of environmental controls on riverine carbon cycling are critical for improved understanding of mechanisms regulating carbon processing and storage along the terrestrial-aquatic continuum. Here, we compile and analyze riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration data from 1402 United States Geological Survey (USGS) gauge stations to examine the spatial variability and environmental controls of DOC concentrations in the United States (U.S.) surface waters. DOC concentrations exhibit high spatial variability, with an average of 6.42 ± 6.47 mg C/ L (Mean ± Standard Deviation). In general, high DOC concentrations occur in the Upper Mississippi River basin and the Southeastern U.S., while low concentrations are mainly distributed in the Western U.S. Single-factor analysis indicates that slope of drainage areas, wetlands, forests, percentage of first-order streams, and instream nutrients (such as nitrogen and phosphorus) pronouncedly influence DOC concentrations, but the explanatory power of each bivariate model is lower than 35%. Analyses based on the general multi-linear regression models suggest DOC concentrations are jointly impacted by multiple factors. Soil properties mainly show positive correlations with DOC concentrations; forest and shrub lands have positive correlations with DOC concentrations, but urban area and croplands demonstrate negative impacts; total instream phosphorus and dam density correlate positively with DOC concentrations. Notably, the relative importance of these environmental controls varies substantially across major U.S. water resource regions. In addition, DOC concentrations and environmental controls also show significant variability from small streams to large rivers, which may be caused by changing carbon sources and removal rates by river orders. In sum, our results reveal that general multi-linear regression analysis of twenty one terrestrial and aquatic environmental factors can partially explain (56%) the DOC concentration variation. In conclusion, this study highlights the complexity of the interactions among these environmental factors in determining DOC concentrations, thus calls for processes-based, non-linear methodologies to constrain uncertainties in riverine DOC cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Hydrogen Production Feasibility for a Light Water Reactor in the Midwest

Increased electricity production from renewable energy resources coupled with low natural gas prices has caused existing light-water reactor (LWRs) to experience ever diminishing returns from the electricity market. Via partnership among Idaho National Laboratory (INL), The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Exelon, and Fuel Cell Energy a techno-economic analysis on the viability of retrofitting existing pressurized water reactors (PWRs) to produce hydrogen (H2) via high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) has been conducted. Such integration would allow nuclear facilities to expand into additional markets that may be more profitable in the long-term. To accommodate such an integration, a detailed analysis of HTSE process operation, requirements, and flexibility was conducted. Technical analysis includes proposed nuclear system control scheme modifications to allow dynamic operation of the HTSE via both thermal and electrical connection to the nuclear plant. High fidelity Modelica simulations showcase the viability of such control schemes. However, due to limited knowledge of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack degradation due to thermal gradients; thermal cycling of the HTSE was not included. Therefore, the control schemes proposed are only utilized to re-distribute steam at startup and only the portion of electricity utilized in the electrolyzers is cycled. From the detailed analysis of the nuclear integration and the HTSE process design, a comprehensive cost estimation was conducted in the APEA and H2A models to elucidate capital and operational costs associated with the production, compression, and distribution of hydrogen from a nuclear facility. Alongside this costing analysis, market analyses were conducted by NREL and ANL on the electric and hydrogen markets respectively in the PJM interconnect. Utilizing the electricity data market projections in the PJM interconnect from NREL and hydrogen demand/pricing projections from ANL a five variable sweep over component capacities, discount rates, and hydrogen pricing was completed using the stochastic framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual ENVironment) through its resource dispatch plugin HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network). Each combination of variables was evaluated stochastically four times over a seventeen year timespan from 2026-2042 (inclusive) to determine the most economically advantageous solution. Following the five variable sweep an optimization was conducted about the best sweep point to determine optimal component sizing and setpoints. Results suggest positive gain is achievable at all projected hydrogen market pricing levels and at all discount rates. However, exact component sizing and net returns vary based on these values and if incorrect sizing is selected; major net losses can occur. The optimal result occurred with set points as follows: high hydrogen prices, the largest possible HTSE unit in the sweep set at 7.47 kg/sec [645.4 tpd], a contractual hydrogen market agreement 7.29 kg/sec [629.8 tpd], and a hydrogen storage size 115,188 kg. The analysis suggested that with a discount rate of 8%, a ΔNPV = 1.2 billion over the seventeen year span can be achieved. The results illuminate that by operating in multiple markets the nuclear facility is capable of avoiding sale of electricity during times of low electricity market pricing, while maintaining the ability to capitalize on the high electricity market pricing. It should be noted that the analysis conducted in this report is a differential cash flow analysis and as such does not present profit levels. Instead it highlights the net benefit between building and competing in the hydrogen market utilizing nuclear facilities and conducting business as usual in the electricity markets. Additionally, results presented in this report exhibit conservatism due to four key assumptions: Given the limited knowledge on SOFC stack degradation due to thermal gradients the high temperature steam electrolysis plant is not allowed to thermally cycle. This limitation decreases electricity generation capacity in the nuclear plant, reducing capacity payments and the maximum output to the electrical grid. This analysis considers building a separate hydrogen pipeline for use in the nuclear facility. Research is currently being conducted to determine if existing natural gas pipelines can accommodate direct hydrogen injection. If hydrogen can be integrated into existing natural gas pipelines then a capital savings of ~$19,000,000 per kg/sec [1 kg/sec = 86.4 tpd] of installed HTSE capacity could be realized. Fast transients in the electric grid are typically served by flywheels and electric batteries. With electrolysis only operation the nuclear plant can flex its electricity just as quickly. However, for this analysis, the ancillary services market has been neglected. Should the nuclear plant have the ability to operate in the ancillary services market during periods when it is producing hydrogen, an additional substantial income stream that would increase overall system profitability could be considered. Subsidies for non-emitting generation technologies are not introduced in the cash flow analysis, but instead are completed assuming zero subsidies. Profitability is based solely on electricity pricing. Electric pricing is assumed to never go negative. Instead, it is assumed overall system curtailment by the Independent System Operator (ISO) will occur in such a manner that pricing remains at or above zero. This assumption inflates the “business as usual” scenario, thus decreasing the ΔNPV calculated. If negative pricing scenarios continue to occur as they do today, one would expect a further increase in ΔNPV. Overall, results advocate that, through market diversification, nuclear power plants have the potential to substantially increase current profit margins, increase market penetration, and ultimately solidify their place as a mainstay in energy production.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Wholesale Electricity Market Design with Increasing Levels of Renewable Generation: Incentivizing Flexibility in System Operations

This paper discusses the importance and challenges of incentivizing flexibility during short-term operations of the bulk power system due to the increasing variability and uncertainty from growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). Operational flexibility can refer to many aspects of a resource's capability to support the power system, such as the speed, range, and duration of power output, as well as the ability to autonomously respond to frequency or voltage changes. Inefficient utilization of existing flexibility, or unwillingness of resources to provide flexibility, can compromise system reliability by not meeting the changing net load, and it can also lead to higher costs when an inefficient use of flexibility resources occurs. There are many existing characteristics of market design that incentivize flexibility in some manner. How they incentivize the provision of flexibility as well as the level of flexibility is still debated. We explore some of these existing market designs, as well as new market mechanisms, such as pay-for-performance regulating reserve and flexible ramping products, that aim to explicitly incentivize the provision of more flexibility to the system, particularly as a result of increasing VG penetration levels.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Variability in Diurnal and Seasonal Ambient Conditions on Geothermal Plant Performance and Cost

Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This, in turn, is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study, we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in enhanced geothermal system binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data, we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost. These results make a case for the inclusion of location-based weather data as inputs to supply curves that are used in capacity expansion models for the prediction of future geothermal deployment scenarios.

ambient temperature↗

Impact of FERC Order 2222 on DER Participation Rules in US Electricity Markets

Electricity markets in the bulk grid are beginning to implement market mechanisms that support the procurement of flexible capabilities from wide range of technologies, including distributed energy resources (DERs). The flexibility of these resources will help counterbalance supply uncertainties from large-scale integration of variable renewable generation. To encourage development of distributed and aggregated market participants, FERC Order 2222 was issued in September 2020 to require each Independent System Operator (ISO) in the US to implement rules that enable broader participation from aggregations of DERs in the bulk market. The following paper first describes the generic design of ISO markets before introducing the new market participation rules that ISOs have proposed for compliance with Order 2222. The paper then describes how software performance issues may continue to affect the eligibility requirements and offer structures for DER aggregations participating in ISOs, noting that continued research on computational methods may help reduce burdens for DER integration. The prospects for transmission and distribution system coordination is second major issue discussed, which will require minor changes to existing processes in the short term. In the longer term, there is more opportunity for more wide-ranging reforms, such as the development of a Distribution System Operator (DSO) framework. Newly proposed market rules may affect how Transactive Energy Systems (TES) will help facilitate efficient formation of DER aggregations and operation of the individual DERs within an aggregation. Within the TES context, the challenge is to fully understand how resource eligibility and operational and planning coordination methods will affect the design and implementation of TES.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Variability in Diurnal and Seasonal Ambient Conditions on Geothermal Plant Performance and Cost: Preprint

Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This in turn is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in EGS binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost.

ambient temperature↗

Computational analysis of deployable wind turbine systems in defense operational energy applications.

The U.S. military has been exploring pathways to reduce the logistical burden of fuel on virtually all their missions globally. Energy harvesting of local resources such as wind and solar can help increase the resilience and operational effectiveness of military units, especially at the most forward operating bases where the fuel logistics are most challenging. This report considers the potential benefits of wind energy provided by deployable wind turbines as measured by a reduction in fuel consumption and supply convoys to a hypothetical network of Army Infantry Brigade Combat Team bases. Two modeling and simulation tools are used to represent the bases and their operations and quantify the impacts of system design variables that include wind turbine technologies, battery storage, number of turbines, and wind resource quality. The System of Systems Analysis Toolkit Joint Operational Energy Model serves as a baseline scenario for comparison. The Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources simulation tool is used to optimize a single base within the larger Joint Operational Energy Model. The results of both tools show that wind turbines can provide significant benefits to contingency bases in terms of reduced fuel use and number of convoy trips to resupply the base. The match between the turbine design and wind resource, which is statistically low across most of the global land area, is a critical design consideration. The addition of battery storage can enhance the benefits of wind turbines, especially in systems with more wind turbines and higher wind resources. Wind turbines may also provide additional benefits to other metrics such as resilience that may be important but not fully considered in the current analysis. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank the following individuals for their helpful support, feedback and review to improve this report: U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office, Patrick Gilman and Bret Barker; Idaho National Laboratory, Jake Gentle and Bradley Whipple; The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Robert Preus and Tony Jimenez; Sandia National Laboratories, Alan Nanco, Dennis Anderson, and Hai Le. In addition, numerous discussions with military and industry stakeholders over the year were invaluable in focusing the efforts represented in this report.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Geothermal Representation in Power System Models

Power system models generally fail to capture the range of characteristics geothermal resources provide and the value they potentially contribute to decarbonization and reliability of future electricity grids as firm, dispatchable, non-combustion power resources. This study reviews the results of power system modeling efforts to investigate geothermal deployment potential in the United States, including the U.S. DOE GeoVision analysis and ongoing modeling and analysis efforts to support planning and development of future grids with 100% renewable energy in California. Several themes are identified that could be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of geothermal representation in power system models: consistency of model inputs, modeling of baseload and dispatchable geothermal resources, accurate valuation of grid services, improved representation of capacity factor, use of contemporary LCOE estimates, improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value, and use of accurate resource potential constraints. Many of the models reviewed produced significantly different amounts of geothermal resource selection - even when modeling the same region and time period. This highlights the variability of inputs and assumptions among models, so creating a consistent set of geothermal inputs is a first step toward more accurate representation of geothermal in models. Research opportunities are identified that could help improve geothermal data inputs in modeling efforts, including analyses of historical data, sensitivity to model inputs, and comparative value of geothermal generators as baseload or dispatchable resources. Outcomes of such research can inform the geothermal community about how best to guide geothermal development toward wider deployment in support of future electricity grids through improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value over time and the characteristics that contribute to that value.

capacity expansion models↗

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗