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At least 613 records · Page 34

Classification of Nuclear Reactor Operations Using Spatial Importance and Multisensor Networks

Distributed multisensor networks record multiple data streams that can be used as inputs to machine learning models designed to classify operations relevant to proliferation at nuclear reactors. The goal of this work is to demonstrate methods to assess the importance of each node (a single multisensor) and region (a group of proximate multisensors) to machine learning model performance in a reactor monitoring scenario. This, in turn, provides insight into model behavior, a critical requirement of data-driven applications in nuclear security. Using data collected at the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory via a network of Merlyn multisensors, two different models were trained to classify the reactor’s operational state: a hidden Markov model (HMM), which is simpler and more transparent, and a feed-forward neural network, which is less inherently interpretable. Traditional wrapper methods for feature importance were extended to identify nodes and regions in the multisensor network with strong positive and negative impacts on the classification problem. These spatial-importance algorithms were evaluated on the two different classifiers. The classification accuracy was then improved relative to baseline models via feature selection from 0.583 to 0.839 and from 0.811 ± 0.005 to 0.884 ± 0.004 for the HMM and feed-forward neural network, respectively. While some differences in node and region importance were observed when using different classifiers and wrapper methods, the nodes near the facility’s cooling tower were consistently identified as important—a conclusion further supported by studies on feature importance in decision trees. Node and region importance methods are model-agnostic, inform feature selection for improved model performance, and can provide insight into opaque classification models in the nuclear security domain.

Tibbetts, Jake↗

Application of photometric models to asteroids

The way an asteroid or other atmosphereless solar system body varies in brightness in response to changing illumination and viewing geometry depends in a very complicated way on the physical and optical properties of its surface and on its overall shape. This paper summarizes the formulation and application of recent photometric models by Hapke (1981, 1984, 1986) and by Lumme and Bowell (1981). In both models, the brightness of a rough and porous surface is parameterized in terms of the optical properties of individual particles, by shadowing between particles, and by the way in which light is scattered among collections of particles. Both models succeed in their goal of fitting the observed photometric behavior of a wide variety of bodies, but neither has led to a very complete understanding of the properties of asteroid regoliths, primarily because, in most cases, the parameters in the present models cannot be adequately constrained by observations of integral brightness alone over a restricted range of phase angles.

Bowell, Edward↗

Error modeling for differential GPS

Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) positioning is used to accurately locate a GPS receiver based upon the well-known position of a reference site. In utilizing this technique, several error sources contribute to position inaccuracy. This thesis investigates the error in DGPS operation and attempts to develop a statistical model for the behavior of this error. The model for DGPS error is developed using GPS data collected by Draper Laboratory. The Marquardt method for nonlinear curve-fitting is used to find the parameters of a first order Markov process that models the average errors from the collected data. The results show that a first order Markov process can be used to model the DGPS error as a function of baseline distance and time delay. The model's time correlation constant is 3847.1 seconds (1.07 hours) for the mean square error. The distance correlation constant is 122.8 kilometers. The total process variance for the DGPS model is 3.73 sq meters.

Blerman, Gregory S.↗

Effects of the Venusian atmosphere on incoming meteoroids and the impact crater population

The dense atmosphere on Venus prevents craters smaller than about 2 km in daimater from forming and also causes formation of several crater fields and multiple-floored craters (collectively referred to as multiple impacts). A model has been constructed that simulates the behavior of a meteoroid in a dense planetary atmosphere. This model was then combined with an assumed flux of incoming meteoroids in an effort to reproduce the size-frequency distribution of impact craters and several aspects of the population of the crater fields and multiple-floored craters on Venus. The modeling indicates that it is plausible that the observed rollover in the size-frequency curve for Venus is due entirely to atmospheric effects on incoming meteoroids. However, there must be substantial variation in the density and behavior of incoming meteoroids in the atmosphere. Lower-density meteoroids must be less likely to survive atmospheric passage than simple density differences can account for. Consequently, it is likely that the percentage of craters formed by high-density meteoroids is very high at small crater diameters, and this percentage decreases substantially with increasing crater diameter. Overall, high-density meteoroids created a disproportionately large percentage of the impact craters on Venus. Also, our results indicate that a process such as meteoroid flattening or atmospheric explosion of meteoroids must be invoked to prevent craters smaller than the observed minimum diameter (2 km) from forming. In terms of using the size-frequency distribution to age-date the surface, the model indicates that the observed population has at least 75% of the craters over 32 km in diameter that would be expected on an atmosphereless Venus; thus, this part of the curve is most suitable for comparison with calibrated curves for the Moon.

Herrick, Robert R.↗

Cassini Imaging of Saturn: Southern Hemisphere Winds and Vortices

High-resolution images of Saturn's southern hemisphere acquired by the Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem between February and October 2004 are used to create maps of cloud morphology at several wavelengths, to derive zonal winds, and to characterize the distribution, frequency, size, morphology, color, behavior, and lifetime of vortices. Nonequatorial wind measurements display only minor differences from those collected since 1981 and reveal a strong, prograde flow near the pole. The region just southward of the velocity minimum at 40.7 deg S is especially active, containing numerous vortices, some generated in the proximity of convective storms. The two eastward jets nearest the pole display periodicity in their longitudinal structure, but no direct analogs to the northern hemisphere's polar hexagon or ribbon waves were observed. Characteristics of winds and vortices are compared with those of Saturn's northern hemisphere and Jupiter's atmosphere.

Saturn↗

Computational Icing Risk Analysis of the D8 "Double Bubble" Aircraft

A computational icing risk analysis utilizing LEWICE3D was performed for the D8 Double Bubble aircraft. A variety of discrete drop sizes spanning the Appendix C and O regimes were simulated. For computational efficiency a 50-bin global discretization was produced and projected onto the distributions of interest, eliminating redundant simulations. The trajectory and impingement characteristics for discrete drop diameters were analyzed to help understand the behavior of the water drops in the presence of a complex flow field. The collection efficiency results for the discrete drop diameters were then weighted by their contributions to the total water content of six different continuous distributions and subsequently superposed to approximate these curves. Results indicate that significant variation in impingement exists as a function of drop diameter for complex wing body geometries, and that current discretization practices may be insufficient to accurately predict water collection on certain regions of the aircraft. Results also indicate that the Appendix O distributions, specifically those with considerable water content at large drops, generates water collection patterns that are markedly different from distributions representative of Appendix C.

icing↗

Computational Icing Risk Analysis of the D8 "Double Bubble" Aircraft

A computational icing risk analysis utilizing LEWICE3D was performed for the D8 Double Bubble aircraft. A variety of discrete drop sizes spanning the Appendix C and O regimes were simulated. For computational efficiency a 50-bin global discretization was produced and projected onto the distributions of interest, eliminating redundant simulations. The trajectory and impingement characteristics for discrete drop diameters were analyzed to help understand the behavior of the water drops in the presence of a complex flow field. The collection efficiency results for the discrete drop diameters were then weighted by their contributions to the total water content of six different continuous distributions and subsequently superposed to approximate these curves. Results indicate that significant variation in impingement exists as a function of drop diameter for complex wing body geometries, and that current discretization practices may be insufficient to accurately predict water collection on certain regions of the aircraft. Results also indicate that the Appendix O distributions, specifically those with considerable water content at large drops, generates water collection patterns that are markedly different from distributions representative of Appendix C.

Porter, Christopher E.↗

Creating Formal Characterizations ofRoutine Contingency Management inCommercial Aviation

Traditional approaches to safety management focus on collection of data describing unwanted states (i.e., accidents and incidents) and analysis of undesired behaviors (i.e., faults and errors) that precede those states. Thus, in the traditional view of safety, safety is both defined and measured by its absence, namely the lack of safety. In extremely high confidence systems like commercial air transport, however, opportunities to measure the absence of safety are relatively rare. Ironically, a critical barrier to measuring safety and the impact of mitigation strategies in commercial aviation is the lack of opportunities for measurement.

Intelligent Contingency Management,↗

Development and Initial Validation of HFBP-EM Short-Form Surveys

The Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Exploration Measures (HFBP-EM) suite includes self-report surveys designed to assess Behavioral Medicine (BMed) and Team risks for future exploration class missions. Survey data was collected during the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaign 4 (C4), HERA Campaign 5 (C5), and during SIRIUS19 missions in the Russian Ground Based Experiment Complex, NEK. Crew time in spaceflight analogs and in spaceflight is typically limited. Extensive self-report surveys can be a significant burden to participants and are not operationally acceptable for spaceflight. The purpose of this project was to comprehensively assess the reliability and validity of the standard-length HFBP-EM surveys, identify acceptable short forms to administer during HERA C6, examine initial validation evidence for the proposed short form measures, and identify key measurement gaps in HFBP-EM coverage. In this presentation, we will report reliability and validity metrics of standard form data, describe the proposed new short forms, and present initial psychometric analyses supporting the use of these short forms.

S T Bell↗

Overview of the MISSE-16 Mission and Preliminary Characterization of Novel Space Weathered Materials

The Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) project is a series of experiments that began in 2001, involving the deployment of external experiment platforms on the International Space Station (ISS). Since then, more than 4,000 materials were tested yielding valuable data and insights into the performance of materials and coatings in the harsh space environment, as well as providing a platform for testing and validating new materials and technologies. The results of the MISSE experiments have contributed to the development of more durable and reliable spacecraft and equipment, as well as improving our understanding of the space environment and its effects on human space exploration. To gain deeper insights into the changes in material properties of both novel and heritage spacecraft materials over the course of a mission, we proposed to enhance the MISSE hardware. This was achieved by integrating a high-resolution camera that can capture both RGB and IR color data, along with an updated illumination scheme. The identical sets of selected materials were mounted on the Zenith, Ram, and Wake faces of the ISS to expose them to predominant vacuum ultraviolet (VUV), atomic oxygen, and high-energy electron conditions. In addition, we exposed flight duplicates of these materials to a simulated space environment, which included sequential exposure to the same irradiation species on the ground. This allowed us to study the effects of space exposure on the materials in a controlled manner and to compare their behavior in both real and simulated space environments. The MISSE-FF flight sample collection comprised different classes of polymers, including polyimides from the Kapton family, manufactured by E.I du Pont de Nemours and Co., Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) materials, liquid crystal polymers, PI/Polyhedral Oligomeric Silsesquioxanes (POSS), and carbon and glass fiber reinforced polymers. The experimental cadence during the MISSE-16 mission (~6 months) included daily images of each sample for the first week, weekly for the next 2 months, and monthly the remaining duration of the mission. This paper will focus on the flight duplicate as well as the postflight optical characterization of novel and heritage materials currently under observation on the MISSE-FF.

Jainisha R Shah↗

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

The role of individual and collective human agency is increasingly recognized as a prominent and arguably paramount determinant in shaping the behavior, trajectory, and vulnerability of multisector systems. This human influence operates at multiple scales: from short-term (hourly to daily) to long-term (annually to centennial) timescales, and from the local to the global, pushing systems towards either desirable or undesirable outcomes. However, the effort to represent human systems in multisector models has been fragmented across philosophical, methodological, and disciplinary lines. To cohere insights across diverse modeling approaches, we present a new typology for classifying how human actors are represented in the broad suite of coupled human-natural system models that are applied in MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research. The typology conceptualizes a “sector” as a system-of-systems that includes a diverse group of human actors, defined across individual to collective social levels, involved in governing, provisioning, and utilizing products, goods, or services towards some human end. We trace the salient features of modeled representations of human systems by organizing the typology around three key questions: 1) Who are the modeled actors in MSD systems? 2) What are their modeled actions? 3) How and for what purpose are these actors and actions operationalized in a computational model? The typology is used to critically examine existing models and chart the frontier of future human systems modeling for MSD research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-Term Durability of a Matrix for High-Temperature Composites Predicted

Polymer matrix composites (PMC's) are being increasingly used in applications where they are exposed for long durations to harsh environments such as elevated temperatures, moisture, oils and solvents, and thermal cycling. The exposure to these environments leads to the degradation of structures made from these materials. This also affects the useful lifetimes of these structures. Some of the more prominent aerospace applications of polymer matrix composites include engine supports and cowlings, reusable launch vehicle parts, radomes, thrust-vectoring flaps, and the thermal insulation of rocket motors. This demand has led to efforts to develop lightweight, high-strength, high-modulus materials that have upper-use temperatures over 316 C. A cooperative program involving two grants to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and in-house work at the NASA Glenn Research Center was conducted to identify the mechanisms and the measurement of mechanical and physical properties that are necessary to formulate a mechanism-based model for predicting the lifetime of high-temperature polymer matrix composites. The polymer that was studied was PMR-15 polyimide, a leading matrix resin for use in high-temperature-resistant aerospace composite structures such as propulsion systems. The temperature range that was studied was from 125 to 316 C. The diffusion behavior of PMR-15 neat resin was characterized and modeled. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was also conducted in nitrogen, oxygen, and air to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative degradation reactions. A new low-cost technique was developed to collect chemical degradation data for isothermal tests lasting up to 4000 hr in duration. In the temperature range studied, results indicate complex behavior that was not observed by previous TGA tests, including the presence of weight-gain reactions. These were found to be significant in the initial periods of aging from 125 to 225 C. Two types of weight loss reactions dominated at aging temperatures above 225 C. One was concentrated at the surface of the polymer and was very active at temperatures above 225 C. The second was observed to dominate in the latter stages of aging at temperatures below 260 C. This three-reaction model satisfactorily explains past findings that the degradation mechanism of PMR-15 appears to change around 316 C. It also indicates that the second weight gain mechanism is a significant factor at temperatures below 204 C. On the basis of these results, a predictive model was developed for the thermal degradation of PMR-15 at 316 C. A comparison of data generated by this model with actual experimental data is shown in the following figure.

Bowles, Kenneth J.↗

Constrained model calibration of grain structure dependent spall dynamics in shock-loaded tantalum

Here, we perform a gas gun experiment by shock loading tantalum samples of varying grain structures to assess the suitability of a numerical model for simulating spall behavior. The observed differences in spall strength, as well spallation and re-compression history, are not captured in uncalibrated hydrodynamic simulations. An optimization is performed on the Johnson spall model to determine the best parameters that fit the observed trends. Linear stability analysis is employed to motivate bounds on those parameters. Herein, optimized simulations agree well with the experimental results, reproducing pullback depth and recompression timescales across the different samples tested. Further, the observed pullback time of the single crystal sample was found to imply, via the stability analysis, a percolation threshold in good agreement with the theoretical value for a body centered cubic lattice. Therefore, the combined linear stability and percolation analysis shows promise and may be applied to other materials with diverse microstructures. Collectively, the findings demonstrate that the model is suitable for reproducing spall-induced free surface behavior across various microstructures, but also points to caution in using model coefficients for uncalibrated microstructures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tunable n- and p-Type Behavior of Ruddlesden–Popper and Dion–Jacobson 2D Perovskites

Interfacial band alignment in two-dimensional (2D)/three-dimensional (3D) perovskite heterostructures is important for maximizing separation, extraction, and collection of charge carriers, which, in turn, stabilize the perovskite layer during solar cell operation. Despite the wide use of 2D spacer cations for stabilizing perovskite solar cells, spacer cation exchange across the 2D/3D interface induces structural transformation and degradation in performance and stability. We have now examined the electrochemical and photoelectrochemical behavior of 2D Ruddlesden–Popper (RP) and Dion–Jacobson (DJ) perovskites to assess the impact of binding configuration on the interfacial charge separation and their operational stability. In-situ open circuit potential (OCP) responses of 2D perovskites under light illumination, paired with redox couples (ferrocene/ferrocenium), reveal different semiconducting polarizabilities of BA-RP (n-type) and BDA-DJ (p-type). The tunability of the Fermi energy level in 2D perovskites discussed in this study offers insight into the design of 2D/3D interfaces for optimizing charge transfer and enhancing charge neutrality and stability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Complete Initial Studies in Microstructural Studies of Nuclear Graphite

Nuclear graphite is a critical material for the performance and safety of high-temperature reactors, making its study essential for the successful deployment of next-generation reactors in the United States. During the past year, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has contributed extensively to advancing the understanding of nuclear graphite’s properties, behavior, and applications; particular focus has been given to irradiation effects, oxidation mechanisms, thermal and mechanical performance, and long-term stability under reactor conditions. This report provides an update on the ongoing publications being prepared at ORNL. These studies are collectively intended to build a comprehensive knowledge base on nuclear graphite. The studies focus on key aspects such as microstructural characterization, oxidation behavior, advanced analytical techniques, molten salt infiltration, technique development, and billet-to-billet variability. By summarizing the progress of these publications, this report outlines ORNL’s contributions to the field, identifies knowledge gaps, and proposes future research directions. The findings presented in these studies will help enhance the understanding of nuclear graphite’s behavior, support the qualification of nuclear graphite materials, further the development of new techniques and guidelines for using microscopy techniques, and improve reactor safety and performance.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cross-platform analysis of public responses to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence on Twitter and Reddit

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on different OSNs and conduct a cross-platform analysis of public responses to earthquakes. Our findings support the Uses and Gratification theory that users on Reddit and Twitter are engaging with platforms that they may feel best reflect their sense of self. Using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as our study cases, we collected 510,579 tweets and 45,770 Reddit posts (including 1437 submissions and 44,333 comments) to answer the following research questions: (1) What were the similarities and differences between public responses on Twitter and Reddit? (2) Considering the different mechanisms of Twitter and Reddit, what unique information of public responses can we learn from Reddit as compared with Twitter? By answering these research questions, we aim to bridge the gap of cross-platform public responses research towards natural hazards. Our study evinces that the users on the two different platforms have both different topics of interest and different sentiments towards the same earthquake, which indicates the necessity of investigating cross-platform OSNs to reveal a more comprehensive picture of people’s general public responses towards certain disasters. Our analysis also finds that r/conspiracy subreddit is one of the major venues where people discuss the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes on Reddit and different misinformation/conspiracies spread on Twitter and Reddit platforms (e.g., “Big one is coming” on Twitter and “Nuclear test” on Reddit).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding the determinants of problem-solving behavior in a complex environment

It is often argued that problem-solving behavior in a complex environment is determined as much by the features of the environment as by the goals of the problem solver. This article explores a technique to determine the extent to which measured features of a complex environment influence problem-solving behavior observed within that environment. In this study, the technique is used to determine how complex flight deck and air traffic control environment influences the strategies used by airline pilots when controlling the flight path of a modern jetliner. Data collected aboard 16 commercial flights are used to measure selected features of the task environment. A record of the pilots' problem-solving behavior is analyzed to determine to what extent behavior is adapted to the environmental features that were measured. The results suggest that the measured features of the environment account for as much as half of the variability in the pilots' problem-solving behavior and provide estimates on the probable effects of each environmental feature.

Casner, Stephen A.↗

Effects of photon irradiation in the presence and absence of hindlimb unloading on the behavioral performance and metabolic pathways in the plasma of Fischer rats

The space environment astronauts experience during space missions consists of multiple environmental challenges, including microgravity. In this study, we assessed the behavioral and cognitive performances of male Fisher rats 2 months after sham irradiation or total body irradiation with photons in the absence or presence of simulated microgravity. We analyzed the plasma collected 9 months after sham irradiation or total body irradiation for distinct alterations in metabolic pathways and to determine whether changes to metabolic measures were associated with specific behavioral and cognitive measures. A total of 344 male Fischer rats were irradiated with photons (6 MeV; 3, 8, or 10 Gy) in the absence or presence of simulated weightlessness achieved using hindlimb unloading (HU). To identify potential plasma biomarkers of photon radiation exposure or the HU condition for behavioral or cognitive performance, we performed regression analyses. The behavioral effects of HU on activity levels in an open field, measures of anxiety in an elevated plus maze, and anhedonia in the M&M consumption test were more pronounced than those of photon irradiation. Phenylalanine, tyrosine, and tryptophan metabolism, and phenylalanine metabolism and biosynthesis showed very strong pathway changes, following photon irradiation and HU in animals irradiated with 3 Gy. Here, 29 out of 101 plasma metabolites were associated with 1 out of 13 behavioral measures. In the absence of HU, 22 metabolites were related to behavioral and cognitive measures. In HU animals that were sham-irradiated or irradiated with 8 Gy, one metabolite was related to behavioral and cognitive measures. In HU animals irradiated with 3 Gy, six metabolites were related to behavioral and cognitive measures. These data suggest that it will be possible to develop stable plasma biomarkers of behavioral and cognitive performance, following environmental challenges like HU and radiation exposure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗