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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty of SW Cloud Radiative Effect in Atmospheric Models Due to the Parameterization of Liquid Cloud Optical Properties

Clouds are largely responsible for the spread of climate models predictions. Here we focus on the uncertainties in cloud shortwave radiative effect due to the parameterization of liquid cloud single scattering properties (SSPs) from liquid water content (LWC) and droplet number concentration (N), named parameterization of cloud optical properties. Uncertainties arise from not accounting for the droplet size distribution (DSD)—which affects the estimation of the effective radius (r eff ) and modulates the r eff -dependency of the SSPs—and from averaging SSPs over wide spectral bands. To assess these uncertainties a series of r eff -dependent SSPs parameterizations corresponding to various DSDs and spectral averaging methods are derived and implemented in a radiative code. Combined with the DSD-dependent estimation of r eff they are used to compute the bulk radiative properties (reflectance, transmittance, absorptance) of various clouds (defined in terms of LWC and N), including a homogeneous cloud, more realistic case studies, and outputs of a climate model. The results show that the cloud radiative forcing can vary up to 20% depending on the assumed DSD. Likewise, differences up to 20% are obtained for heating rates. The estimation of r eff is the main source of uncertainty, while the SSPs parameterization contributes to around 20% of the total uncertainty. Spectral averaging is less an issue, except for atmospheric absorption. Overall, global shortwave cloud radiative effect can vary by 6 W m –2 depending on the assumed DSD shape, which is about 13% of the best observational estimate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Experiments for Fractured Rock Characterization: Theoretical Analysis and Inverse Modeling

Abstract Field‐scale properties of fractured rocks play a crucial role in many subsurface applications, yet methodologies for identification of the statistical parameters of a discrete fracture network (DFN) are scarce. We present an inversion technique to infer two such parameters, fracture density and fractal dimension, from cross‐borehole thermal experiments data. It is based on a particle‐based heat‐transfer model, whose evaluation is accelerated with a deep neural network (DNN) surrogate that is integrated into a grid search. The DNN is trained on a small number of the heat‐transfer model runs and predicts the cumulative density function of the thermal field. The latter is used to compute fine posterior distributions of the (to be estimated) parameters. Our synthetic experiments reveal that fracture density is well constrained by data, while fractal dimension is harder to determine. Adding nonuniform prior information related to the DFN connectivity improves the inference of this parameter.

Zhou, Zitong↗
DOE OSTI2022

Matrix Approach to Land Carbon Cycle Modeling

Land ecosystems contribute to climate change mitigation by taking up approximately 30% of anthropogenically emitted carbon. However, estimates of the amount and distribution of carbon uptake across the world's ecosystems or biomes display great uncertainty. The latter hinders a full understanding of the mechanisms and drivers of land carbon uptake, and predictions of the future fate of the land carbon sink. The latter is needed as evidence to inform climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation schemes. To advance land carbon cycle modeling, we have developed a matrix approach. Land carbon cycle models use carbon balance equations to represent carbon exchanges among pools. Our approach organizes this set of equations into a single matrix equation without altering any processes of the original model. The matrix equation enables the development of a theoretical framework for understanding the general, transient behavior of the land carbon cycle. While carbon input and residence time are used to quantify carbon storage capacity at steady state, a third quantity, carbon storage potential, integrates fluxes with time to define dynamic disequilibrium of the carbon cycle under global change. The matrix approach can help address critical contemporary issues in modeling, including pinpointing sources of model uncertainty and accelerating spin-up of land carbon cycle models by tens of times. The accelerated spin-up liberates models from the computational burden that hinders comprehensive parameter sensitivity analysis and assimilation of observational data to improve model accuracy. Such computational efficiency offered by the matrix approach enables substantial improvement of model predictions using ever-increasing data availability. Overall, the matrix approach offers a step change forward for understanding and modeling the land carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extending empirical constraints on the SZ–mass scaling relation to higher redshifts via HST weak lensing measurements of nine clusters from the SPT-SZ survey at z ≳ 1

We present a Hubble Space Telescope (HST) weak gravitational lensing study of nine distant and massive galaxy clusters with redshifts 1.0 ≲ z ≲ 1.7 (z median = 1.4) and Sunyaev Zel’dovich (SZ) detection significance ξ > 6.0 from the South Pole Telescope Sunyaev Zel’dovich (SPT-SZ) survey. We measured weak lensing galaxy shapes in HST/ACS F606W and F814W images and used additional observations from HST/WFC3 in F110W and VLT/FORS2 in U HIGH to preferentially select background galaxies at z ≳ 1.8, achieving a high purity. We combined recent redshift estimates from the CANDELS/3D-HST and HUDF fields to infer an improved estimate of the source redshift distribution. We measured weak lensing masses by fitting the tangential reduced shear profiles with spherical Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) models. We obtained the largest lensing mass in our sample for the cluster SPT-CL J2040—4451, thereby confirming earlier results that suggest a high lensing mass of this cluster compared to X-ray and SZ mass measurements. Combining our weak lensing mass constraints with results obtained by previous studies for lower redshift clusters, we extended the calibration of the scaling relation between the unbiased SZ detection significance ζ and the cluster mass for the SPT-SZ survey out to higher redshifts. We found that the mass scale inferred from our highest redshift bin (1.2 < z < 1.7) is consistent with an extrapolation of constraints derived from lower redshifts, albeit with large statistical uncertainties. Thus, our results show a similar tendency as found in previous studies, where the cluster mass scale derived from the weak lensing data is lower than the mass scale expected in a PlanckνΛCDM (i.e. νΛ cold dark matter) cosmology given the SPT-SZ cluster number counts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The PAU Survey: narrow-band photometric redshifts using Gaussian processes

Here, we study the performance of the hybrid template machine learning photometric redshift (photo- z ) algorithm delight , which uses Gaussian processes, on a subset of the early data release of the Physics of the Accelerating Universe Survey (PAUS). We calibrate the fluxes of the 40 PAUS narrow bands with six broad-band fluxes ( uBVriz ) in the Cosmic Evolution Survey (COSMOS) field using three different methods, including a new method that utilizes the correlation between the apparent size and overall flux of the galaxy. We use a rich set of empirically derived galaxy spectral templates as guides to train the Gaussian process, and we show that our results are competitive with other standard photometric redshift algorithms. delight achieves a photo- z 68th percentile error of σ 68 = 0.0081(1 + z ) without any quality cut for galaxies with i auto < 22.5 as compared to 0.0089(1 + z ) and 0.0202(1 + z ) for the bpz and annz 2 codes, respectively. delight is also shown to produce more accurate probability distribution functions for individual redshift estimates than bpz and annz 2. Common photo- z outliers of delight and bcnz 2 (previously applied to PAUS) are found to be primarily caused by outliers in the narrow-band fluxes, with a small number of cases potentially indicating spectroscopic redshift failures in the reference sample. In the process, we introduce performance metrics derived from the results of bcnz 2 and delight , allowing us to achieve a photo- z quality of σ 68 < 0.0035(1 + z ) at a magnitude of i auto < 22.5 while keeping 50 per cent objects of the galaxy sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and X-ray Scaling Relations from Weak-Lensing Mass Calibration of 32 SPT Selected Galaxy Clusters

Uncertainty in mass-observable scaling relations is currently the limiting factor for galaxy-cluster-based cosmology. Weak gravitational lensing can provide direct mass calibration and reduce the mass uncertainty. We present new ground-based weak lensing observations of 19 South Pole Telescope (SPT) selected clusters at redshifts 0.29 <= z <= 0.61 and combine them with previously reported space-based observations of 13 galaxy clusters at redshifts 0.576 <= z <= 1.132 to constrain the cluster mass scaling relations with the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE), the cluster gas mass M-gas and Y-X, the product of M-gas and X-ray temperature. We extend a previously used framework for the analysis of scaling relations and cosmological constraints obtained from SPT-selected clusters to make use of weak lensing information. We introduce a new approach to estimate the effective average redshift distribution of background galaxies and quantify a number of systematic errors affecting the weak lensing modelling. These errors include a calibration of the bias incurred by fitting a Navarro-Frenk-White profile to the reduced shear using N-body simulations. We blind the analysis to avoid confirmation bias. We are able to limit the systematic uncertainties to 5.6% in cluster mass (68% confidence). Our constraints on the mass-X-ray observable scaling relation parameters are consistent with those obtained by earlier studies and our constraints for the mass-SZE scaling relation are consistent with the simulation-based prior used in the most recent SPT-SZ cosmology analysis. We can now replace the external mass calibration priors used in previous SPT-SZ cosmology studies with a direct, internal calibration obtained for the same clusters.

cosmology: observations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stimulated emission tomography for efficient characterization of spatial entanglement

Stimulated-emission tomography (SET) is an excellent tool for characterizing the process of spontaneous parametric down conversion (SPDC), which is commonly used to create pairs of entangled photons for use in quantum information protocols. The use of stimulated emission increases the average number of detected photons by several orders of magnitude compared to the spontaneous process. In a SET measurement, the parametric down conversion is seeded by an intense signal field prepared with specified mode properties rather than by broadband multimodal vacuum fluctuations, as is the case for the spontaneous process. The SET process generates an intense idler field in a mode that is the complex conjugate to the signal mode. In this work we use SET to estimate the joint spatial mode distribution (JSMD) in the Laguerre-Gaussian (LG) basis of the two photons of an entangled photon pair. The pair is produced by parametric down conversion in a beta barium borate (BBO) crystal with type-II phase matching pumped at a wavelength of 405 nm along with a 780 nm seed signal beam prepared in a variety of LG modes to generate an 842 nm idler beam of which the spatial mode distribution is measured. We observe strong idler production and good agreement with the theoretical prediction of its spatial mode distribution. Our experimental procedure should enable the efficient determination of the photon-pair wavefunctions produced by low-brightness SPDC sources and the characterization of high-dimensional entangled-photon pairs. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Xu, Yang (ORCID:0009000954547320)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use

Abstract Projection of land use and land‐cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and land cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and is incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land‐use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, compared with uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling the current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts on agriculture but may not meet conservation goals. Rather than focusing on an area target, a more robust approach may be to carefully select newly protected land to meet well‐defined conservation goals while minimizing impacts to agriculture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Review of Doses for Dental Imaging in 2010–2020 and Development of a Web Dose Calculator

Dental imaging is one of the most common types of diagnostic radiological procedures in modern medicine. We introduce a comprehensive table of organ doses received by patients in dental imaging procedures extracted from literature and a new web application to visualize the summarized dose information. We analyzed articles, published after 2010, from PubMed on organ and effective doses delivered by dental imaging procedures, including intraoral radiography, panoramic radiography, and cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT), and summarized doses by dosimetry method, machine model, patient age, and technical parameters. Mean effective doses delivered by intraoral, 1.32 (0.60–2.56) μSv, and panoramic, 17.93 (3.47–75.00) μSv, procedures were found to be about1% and 15% of that delivered by CBCT, 121.09 (17.10–392.20) μSv, respectively. In CBCT imaging, child phantoms received about 29% more effective dose than the adult phantoms received. The effective dose of a large field of view (FOV) (>150 cm2) was about 1.6 times greater than that of a small FOV (<50 cm2). The maximum CBCT effective dose with a large FOV for children, 392.2 μSv, was about 13% of theeffective dose that a person receives on average every year from natural radiation, 3110 μSv. Monte Carlo simulations of representative cases of the three dental imaging procedures were then conducted to estimate and visualize the dose distribution within the head. The user-friendly interactive web application (available at http://dentaldose.org) receives user input, such as the number of intraoral radiographs taken, and displays total organ and effective doses, dose distribution maps, and a comparison with other medical and natural sources of radiation. The web dose calculator provides a practical resource for patients interested in understanding the radiation doses delivered by dental imaging procedures.

Lee, Hawon↗
DOE OSTI2022

Single-Logarithmic Corrections to Small-$x$ Helicity Evolution

The small- x x quark helicity evolution equations at double-logarithmic order, with the kernel \sim\alpha_s\ln^2(1/x) ∼ α s ln 2 ( 1 / x ) , have been derived previously. In this work, we derive the single-logarithmic corrections to the equations, to order \alpha_s\ln(1/x) α s ln ( 1 / x ) of the evolution kernel. The new equations include the effects of the running coupling and the unpolarized small- x x evolution, both of which are parametrically significant at single-logarithmic order. The large- N_c N c and large- N_c\ N_f N c N f approximations to the equation are computed. (Here, N_c N c and N_f N f are the numbers of quark colors and flavors, respectively.) Their solutions will provide more precise estimates of the quark helicity distribution at small x x , contributing to the resolution of the proton spin puzzle.

Tawabutr, Yossathorn↗
DOE OSTI2020

2019 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2019 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This report represents the ninth annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thoughts on Analyzing Neutron Multiplicity Data

Bayesian methods offer many advantages for analyzing neutron multiplicity data. Ideally one would make nonparametric estimates of the the posterior distributions, the probabilities - given the data - for unknowns to take on particular values. Once one has the posterior, uncertainty quantification is very natural. We describe how different ways of formulating the statistical theory of fission chains are mathematically equivalent. When confronted with actual data and the burden of finite statistics, different methods of expressing the theory offer advantages for understanding the underlying source parameters from an information theory standpoint.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Regional Air Mobility and Electrified Aircraft on Local Grid Infrastructure and Airport Electricity Demand

The goal of this work is to analyze the electrical infrastructure that may be necessary to serve electrified aviation at a subset of airports where potential electrified flight demand has been provided. Additionally, this work will estimate the amount of onsite distributed energy resources (i.e., solar photovoltaics and battery energy storage systems) that could be used to serve EA in cost effective scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Cost of Wind Energy Review [Slides]

The 12th annual Cost of Wind Energy Review, now presented in slide deck format, uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PR100: Estimated Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Adoption and Load Estimation in Puerto Rico through 2050

The 2-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Study analyzed stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico’s clean energy future. Outputs relating to electricity demand modeling were partially informed by estimates of electric vehicle adoption across all classes of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), and the ensuing charging loads. To create these estimates, the team developed a transportation model for MHDVs in Puerto Rico to estimate the amount and geospatial distribution of energy used. Charging schedules for the different end uses of MHDVs were then used to construct electric load shapes assuming a portion of those vehicles would be replaced by battery electric counterparts. Study results showed that, by 2050, electric vehicles may constitute roughly 50% of the MHDV population in Puerto Rico. The resulting electrical demand curve attributable to MHDV charging showed that, for solar energy-based electrical systems with limited energy storage, this demand may create challenges unless appropriately managed either on the demand or supply side.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tuning Shinkarev’s Bicycle: Separating the Parallel Cycles of Photosystem II Using Empirical Wavelet Transform

The oxygen-evolving complex (OEC) of Photosystem II (PSII) catalyzes light-driven water oxidation, a process necessary to sustain Earth’s atmospheric oxygen. Oxygen yields measured during single-turnover flash sequences exhibit period-four oscillations, which form the basis of the Joliot–Kok (S-state) model. However, when the oscillations of other processes contribute to the measured oxygen yield, fitting methods can conflate these signals and distort estimates of inefficiencies and initial S-state populations. To address this, we applied the empirical wavelet transform (EWT) as a model-independent method to separate overlapping oscillators and capture damping dynamics that are not well represented in Fourier analysis. We tested this framework on polarographic flash-oxygen traces from both our Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 thylakoid membrane preparations and archival datasets on Chlorella and isolated chloroplasts. EWT consistently resolves the expected period-four component alongside a distinct binary oscillation. Simulations suggest that fitting this isolated period-four signal recovers VZAD parameters more accurately than analysis of raw traces, yielding different estimates for S-state distributions and transition probabilities. Notably, this binary oscillation aligns closely with semiquinone dynamics predicted solely from period-four fit parameters. These findings indicate that EWT can effectively distinguish complex signals in oxygen evolution, offering a framework potentially applicable to other spectroscopic probes of the S-state cycle.

Ferrari, Nicholas [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗
DOE OSTI2025

Clumping index estimation with 30°-tilted cameras in row crops: Evaluation of methods and segment size effects

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the spatial distribution of foliage elements and is essential for accurately estimating the plant area index (PAI), canopy radiative transfer, and photosynthesis. Traditionally, the finite-length averaging method (LX), the gap size distribution method (CC), and a combined approach of CC and LX (CLX) have been applied to instruments like TRAC and digital hemispherical photography to estimate CI. However, a comprehensive evaluation of these methods in row crops remains limited, especially regarding the influence of segment size on CI. Meanwhile, digital cameras offer a cost-effective and user-friendly solution for canopy measurements in row crops, yet their application in this context remains underexplored. In this study, we employed a new approach using a 30°-tilted digital camera to estimate CI in corn and soybean fields, applying the LX, CC, and CLX methods. We systematically assessed the performance of these three methods by combining field measurements in real-world fields with simulations using the LESS 3D radiative transfer model. Our results showed that CLX applied to the whole image and 45° segment offered accurate estimation of CI (bias within ±0.1, RMSE < 0.2) and PAI (bias within ±0.4, RMSE < 1) in real-world fields and LESS simulations. The accuracy of the LX method was highly sensitive to segment size, with the best performance observed at the 15° segment (PAI bias within ±0.4). In contrast, the CC method remained stable across different segment sizes, and its performance was generally comparable to that of LX, except at the 15° segment. Across view zenith angles, CI derived from CC generally showed a continuous increase, while those from LX and CLX followed a rising trend at small zenith angles but began to decline at 68°, likely due to an increasing proportion of no-gap segments. Seasonally, LX tended to show decreasing CI during early growth stages but increased as the canopy matured, whereas CC and CLX showed gradually increasing CI before plateauing at peak PAI. The 30°-tilted camera effectively captured CI variations across different angles and growth stages, making it a practical and robust instrument for row crop canopy structure analysis. Furthermore, applying these CI methods to digital cameras offers a low-cost and accessible CI estimation alternative, improving canopy structure monitoring accuracy in row crops.

30°-tilted camera↗
DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗