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At least 613 records · Page 34

Physical processes in prediction of explosive maritime cyclogenesis

Explosive maritime cyclogenetic events are usually aligned with the warm currents off the east coasts of Japan and the U.S. One such event occurred during FGGE in an area which featured good instrumented ship and aircraft coverage. The UCLA 4th order GMC was employed to generate predictions of the event for comparisons with the real-world data. FGGE III-b data were used to initialize the model calculations. Attention was directed to the physical processes causing the onset of the cyclogenesis, particularly the heat budgets of the fluxes involved. The diabatic heating was observed to be equivalent to the horizontal temperature advection. The main source of energy around the cyclone center was identified as the conversion of energy from static energy to kinetic energy. Further analyses of similar events are required if the present results are to be validated.

Liou, C.-S.↗

Analysis of Data Fusion Between Waveform Events and Radionuclide Detections Reported in 2021 by the International Data Centre

During this project, we assessed the percentage of events reported by the International Data Centre (IDC) that are candidates for evaluation using data fusion methods. We calculated the percentage of waveform (seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, SHI) events that may be associated with radionuclide (RN) detections and vice versa. For this task, data fusion means identifying RN detections that may be associated with SHI events. The task of producing a fused SHI and RN bulletin is included in the IDC operational manual. As of 2022, the production of a fused event bulletin remains incomplete, largely because methods for producing the bulletin are under development. Nonetheless, simple methods for data fusion have been developed and preliminary software tools are available at the IDC to associate SHI events and RN detections. This report is a first look at the percentage of SHI events that may be candidates for fusion with RN detections or bulletins. One year of IDC bulletin data (2021) is considered in this report. It is important to note that there were no known nuclear explosions during this time period. Hence, we expect that events during this time period would generate SHI and RN signals. If many SHI events are candidates for fusion with RN data, greater priority should be placed on establishing screening procedures before and/or during the fusion process. By contrast, if the number of candidate events is diminishingly small, then data fusion is not a driver for further development of event or detection screening at the IDC. LLNL reviewed the events reported in the Standard Event Bulletin (SEB) and determined which events are candidates for fusion with the Reviewed Radionuclide Reports (RRR). Much of the work involves establishing a metric or metrics for determining whether a Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) event is a candidate for data fusion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Solar Array Performance Modeling for NASA’s Artemis Missions

NASA’s Artemis exploration campaign includes multiple elements that utilize photovoltaic power generation. Artemis mission profiles feature a variety of events that can limit solar array generation and stress electrical power system (EPS) performance, including eclipses, propulsive or navigational maneuvers which constrain the positioning of the solar arrays, and spiral trajectories with significant radiation degradation. These features make predicting the performance of the power system particularly important and requires accurate modeling of power generation by the solar arrays under a variety of conditions. One of the tools used to predict spacecraft EPS performance is the System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. SPACE is used by NASA to model EPS performance for the Orion crew transport vehicle and the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) of the Gateway space station. This presentation will provide an overview of how SPACE calculates solar array performance, including degradation factors considered and environmental conditions that drive the solar array designs. Additionally, Orion array performance predictions generated by SPACE will be compared to flight data collected during the Artemis I mission.

Photovoltaic↗

Machine Learning Techniques for Pile-Up Rejection in Cryogenic Calorimeters

CUORE Upgrade with Particle IDentification (CUPID) is a foreseen ton-scale array of Li 2 MoO 4 (LMO) cryogenic calorimeters with double readout of heat and light signals. Its scientific goal is to fully explore the inverted hierarchy of neutrino masses in the search for neutrinoless double beta decay of 100 Mo. Pile-up of standard double beta decay of the candidate isotope is a relevant background. We generate pile-up heat events via injection of Joule heater pulses with a programmable waveform generator in a small array of LMO crystals operated underground in the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, Italy. This allows to label pile-up pulses and control both time difference and underlying amplitudes of individual heat pulses in the data. We present the performance of supervised learning classifiers on data and the attained pile-up rejection efficiency.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).

global warming↗

System code evaluation of near-term accident tolerant claddings during pressurized water reactor station blackout accidents

Following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011, researches on Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are currently of high interest in not only the nuclear industry but also governmental and international organizations. In this work, a quantitative evaluation of the performance of monolithic FeCrAl cladding and Cr-coated Zircaloy cladding has been performed for Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Station Blackout (SBO) accidents. A generic PWR model has been built in system thermal-hydraulics code TRACE based on the Surry Nuclear Power Station with counter-current natural circulation modelling capability for hotleg and steam generator U-tube components during the accidents. The base model results are then compared to MELCOR and RELAP simulations to verify the system component implementation in TRACE. Two PWR SBO scenarios were investigated, including: short-term SBO and long-term SBO with early reactor coolant pump (RCP) seal failure. These scenarios are defined to be very similar to the accidents studied in the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analysis (SOARCA) project. TRACE code is modified to reflect the oxidation kinetics of FeCrAl and Cr-coating. Larson-Miller creep rupture model is also implemented in TARCE using its built-in control systems to simulate the creep rupture of hotlegs. Additionally, the comparison between the TRACE models with and without the counter-current flow modeling resulted in significant difference when comparing ATF cladding to Zircaloy for short term SBO, while it marginal impacted the performance during long term SBO with RCP seal failure. For short term SBO, both ATF cladding underwent hot leg creep rupture ~20 min after Zircaloy cladding. While Zircaloy and Cr-coated cladding had generated significant amount of hydrogen gas (>10 kg) before the creep rupture event, FeCrAl cladding had only generated <0.5 kg of hydrogen gas. For long term SBO with RCP seal failure, significant hydrogen generation and fuel melting was predicted before hot leg creep rupture for the ATF cladding while providing only 10–20 min additional coping time compared to Zircaloy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Gravity waves and convection in Colorado during July 1983

The dynamics of gravity-wave/convective-cell interaction is studied using NOAA data collected in NE Colorado during July and August 1983. The pressure fields measured with microbarographs, the tropospheric wind profiles obtained with a UHF wind profiler radar, and precipitation data collected with a 10-cm weather radar for four events (A, B, C, and D) are analyzed. The four disturbances are detected through a substantial depth of the troposphere. It is observed that in event A the wave and convective cells appear to be locked together; in event B, the wave and convective cells commence about the same time, but the wave velocities differ from the cell velocities; and in events C and D, the waves move faster than the maximum wind in the jet and faster than the convective cells. It is suggested that events A and B are generated by wind shear in the jet stream, and the excitation of events C and D depends on mechanisms such as vertical convective motion and acceleration in the jet flow.

Einaudi, F.↗

Grid stabilization using adjusted voltage regulator response to grid characteristics

Apparatus and methods are disclosed for control systems for improving stability of electrical grids by temporarily reducing voltage output of electrical generators responsive to transient events on an electrical grid. In one example of the disclosed technology, a controller is coupled is to an automatic voltage regulator, which in turn adjusts excitation current of an electrical generator responsive to changes in frequency detected for the electrical grid. Reducing the output voltage temporarily allows for smaller generators to provide power to the microgrid. Methods for selecting parameters determining how the controller generates a regulation signal used to adjust the excitation current are further disclosed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Telemetry-Enhancing Scripts

Scripts Providing a Cool Kit of Telemetry Enhancing Tools (SPACKLE) is a set of software tools that fill gaps in capabilities of other software used in processing downlinked data in the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) flight and test-bed operations. SPACKLE tools have helped to accelerate the automatic processing and interpretation of MER mission data, enabling non-experts to understand and/or use MER query and data product command simulation software tools more effectively. SPACKLE has greatly accelerated some operations and provides new capabilities. The tools of SPACKLE are written, variously, in Perl or the C or C++ language. They perform a variety of search and shortcut functions that include the following: Generating text-only, Event Report-annotated, and Web-enhanced views of command sequences; Labeling integer enumerations with their symbolic meanings in text messages and engineering channels; Systematic detecting of corruption within data products; Generating text-only displays of data-product catalogs including downlink status; Validating and labeling of commands related to data products; Performing of convenient searches of detailed engineering data spanning multiple Martian solar days; Generating tables of initial conditions pertaining to engineering, health, and accountability data; Simplified construction and simulation of command sequences; and Fast time format conversions and sorting.

Maimone, Mark W.↗

Correlation between Generator Trips and Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs)

Generally, disturbances in an interconnected network have an influence the stability and the economy of the power grid. Some phenomenon such as load shedding have proven to have a huge impact on real time electricity prices. Generation trip is considered one of the most common events in a power grid that may change the wholesale electricity market. In this paper, a locational marginal price (LMP) measure is used to notice how the electricity prices change with generator trip events at different locations of U.S. power grid. The study results help to find whether there is a clear correlation between generator trips and the changes in the electricity real-time market.

Alharbi, Abdulelah↗

Covariability of Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande from Interannual to Interdecadal Timescales

Study region: The Upper Rio Grande (URG) flows from its headwaters in Colorado, U.S., and provides an important source of water to millions of people in the U.S. states of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and also Mexico. Study focus: We reassess the explanatory power of the relationship of sea surface temperatures (SST) on URG streamflow variability on interannual to interdecadal timescales. We find a significant amount of the variance of spring-summer URG streamflow cannot be fully explained by SST. New hydrological insights: We find that the interdecadal teleconnection between SST and streamflow is more clear than on interannual timescales. The highest ranked years tend to be clustered during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During the periods of decadal high flow (1900-1920, and 1979-1995), Pacific SST resembles a positive PDO pattern and the Atlantic a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern; an interbasin pattern shown in prior studies to be conducive to high precipitation and streamflow. To account for the part of streamflow variance not explained by SST, we analyze atmospheric Reanalysis data for the months preceding the highest spring-summer streamflow events. A variety of atmospheric configurations are found to precede the highest flow years through anomalous moisture convergence. This lack of consistency suggests that, on interannual timescales, weather and not climate can dominate the generation of high streamflow events.

AMO↗

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗

Generative machine learning for detector response modeling with a conditional normalizing flow

In this paper, we explore the potential of generative machine learning models as an alternative to the computationally expensive Monte Carlo (MC) simulations commonly used by the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiments. Our objective is to develop a generative model capable of efficiently simulating detector responses for specific particle observables, focusing on the correlations between detector responses of different particles in the same event and accommodating asymmetric detector responses. Here, we present a conditional normalizing flow model ($\mathcal{CNF}$) based on a chain of Masked Autoregressive Flows, which effectively incorporates conditional variables and models high-dimensional density distributions. We assess the performance of the $\mathcal{CNF}$ model using a simulated sample of Higgs boson decaying to diphoton events at the LHC. We create reconstruction-level observables using a smearing technique. We show that conditional normalizing flows can accurately model complex detector responses and their correlation. This method can potentially reduce the computational burden associated with generating large numbers of simulated events while ensuring that the generated events meet the requirements for data analyses. We make our code available at https://github.com/allixu/normalizing_flow_for_detector_response

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Electron-ion recombination in composite interactions in liquid xenon

The response of liquid xenon to various types of ionizing radiation has been extensively studied theoretically and experimentally. Recent progress in direct detection dark matter experiments highlights the significance of composite events, where multiple particles interact with xenon simultaneously and generate overlapping ionization signatures. In these events, recombination of electrons and ions associated with different primary particles leads to additional suppression of the ionization signal, introducing a new source of uncertainty in dark matter searches and Migdal effect studies. We developed a model to estimate the recombination enhancement for overlapping low-energy particle interactions. This method, which has minimal dependence on xenon microphysics and is primarily driven by existing experimental data, yields predictions that are consistent with available measurements of composite interactions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model predictions are robust against xenon microphysics assumptions.

charge↗

Electrostatic generator electrode-centering and seismic-isolation system for flywheel-based energy storage modules

Robust electro-static (ES) device embodiments, with application to energy storage flywheels as an example, are described that provide reliable, high-efficiency operation in the presence of thermal and mechanical perturbations, as well as seismic events. Electro-static generators and motors, when augmented with magnetic bearings, passive three-dimensional stabilization techniques and dynamic touch-down bearings, enable robust performance in the face of these environmental concerns, as well as efficient operation during typical operational sequences, including spin-up and steady-state modalities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Electrostatic generator electrode-centering and seismic-isolation system for flywheel-based energy storage modules

Robust electro-static (ES) device embodiments, with application to energy storage flywheels as an example, are described that provide reliable, high-efficiency operation in the presence of thermal and mechanical perturbations, as well as seismic events. Electro-static generators and motors, when augmented with magnetic bearings, passive three-dimensional stabilization techniques and dynamic touch-down bearings, enable robust performance in the face of these environmental concerns, as well as efficient operation during typical operational sequences, including spin-up and steady-state modalities.

Post, Richard F.↗

Characteristics of electromagnetic interference generated by arc discharges

Electromagnetic interference (EMI) signatures resulting from arc discharges are characterized, and the effects of electrostatic discharges (ESDs) on the design of spacecraft systems are investigated. EMI characterization experiments were performed on Mylar, Teflon, Kapton, fused silica, and fiberglass in a vacuum chamber with acrylic walls; the experimental design and procedures are described. Discharge current pulses and RF spectra generated by the sample materials are examined. The relation between the magnitude of EMI generated during an ESD event and the material, environment, and geometry is studied. The solar-array/plasma interaction is analyzed; particular attention is given to the rate of discharge as a function of plasma density. The physical mechanisms of ESD-generated EMI are discussed. The data reveal that ESD parameters are dependent on the test environment.

Leung, Philip↗

Development and Stability Analysis of Representative Future High Renewable Penetration Power Grid Models for California

The power grid in California is now experiencing a significant increase in renewable generation to achieve 100% clean energy by 2040. This paper discusses a method for developing the transient stability (TS) model of the future high renewable penetration in the power grid in California. The method consists of utilizing an existing future Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) grid model in the database and locating the conventional plants in the base model that will potentially retire in the next few years in California. Next, the dynamic models of those identified conventional plants and controls in the existing model are modified to replicate the future power generation in the California region. Different scenarios of future power grid in California are developed for various renewable penetration levels and control strategies in renewable power plants. The effect of the control strategies on the stability of the power grid under events like loss of generation are evaluated. Based on these evaluations, certain control features in power plants are identified as necessary for stability of future power grids.

Samanta, Sayan↗