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At least 613 records · Page 34

Aqueous Bromide Discharges from U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plants: Points of Origin, Concentration Ranges, and Effluent Treatment Costs

Bromide discharges from coal-fired power plants have received increased attention from regulatory bodies due to their contribution to the formation of disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in downstream drinking water treatment plants. Here, this paper characterizes the relative contributions of bromide from coal feedstocks and bromine-based mercury control processes, estimates the distribution of bromide concentrations at 85 active coal-fired power plants across the United States (U.S.) with wet flue gas desulfurization units, and estimates the cost of bromide removal from wastewater discharge using year 2020 data. Bromide discharges are estimated at the plant level using a combination of the reported coal rank and composition combusted, estimates of bromide addition in mercury control techniques under multiple halogen addition scenarios, and the estimated flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater flow rate. The median, simulated plant-level estimation of total FGD wastewater flow is 18.3 gallons/min at a bromide concentration of 319 mg/L, equivalent to ~11.6 tonnes/year of bromide discharges to the environment. Next, we evaluated the expected cost of employing the best available technology (BAT) to control bromide discharges in FGD wastewater to prevent contributions to DBP formation. Treatment would need to remove more than 99.8% of bromide to reach the 0.2 mg/L voluntary incentive program (VIP) limit. The total cost of treatment depends on whether disposal is on- or off-site; the average costs for all plants combined come to an average of $110 million ($95.2/kgal) in 2021 U.S. dollars for on-site disposal, or $134 million ($115/kgal) for off-site disposal.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Chemical influence of ammonia on suppressing soot formation pathways

There is interest in mixing ammonia (NH3) with hydrocarbons, as this decreases overall CO2 emissions from the fuel mixture when burned. Co-firing NH3 with hydrocarbons like methane (CH4) also enables stable combustion over a larger set of operating conditions in engines and gas turbines than firing only NH3 permits. When NH3 is co-fired with hydrocarbons, the influence of NH3 on soot formation chemistry becomes relevant. In this work, soot concentrations in laminar nonpremixed co-flow flames of NH3/CH4 and N2/CH4 were analyzed using color-ratio pyrometry. The concentrations of combustion species (CH4, CO2, H2O, O2, C2H2, C6H6, HCN) across the different flames were also determined using on-line electron-impact mass spectrometry. The flames were also interrogated with 2D CFD simulations, which employ a detailed chemical mechanism tailored to capturing fuel-nitrogen chemistry. Addition of NH3 to CH4 flames was found to decrease soot concentrations more significantly than N2-addition (Fig. 1). The NH3/CH4 flames were found to have higher flame temperatures than the N2/CH4 flames, implying the suppression of soot afforded by NH3 is due to a chemical influence of NH3, as opposed to thermal or dilution effects. Based on experimental and simulated soot volume fractions and species concentrations, soot formation pathways affected by NH3 are postulated.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

The Impact of Oxidation-Induced Degradation On Materials Used in Hydrogen-Fired Microturbines

Hydrogen-fueled microturbines are being considered as part of the future green microgrid. However, the use of hydrogen as a fuel presents new challenges for selection and development of suitable high temperature materials for hydrogen combustion. The burning of hydrogen is expected to result in higher operating temperatures and higher than typically observed water vapor contents in exhaust gases versus burning natural gas. In the present work, foil specimens of various Fe- and Ni-based alloys were oxidized in air + 10 % H 2 O and air + 60% H 2 O for up to 5,000 h at 700 °C to simulate the exhaust atmosphere of natural gas and hydrogen-fueled microturbines. Here, the impact of alloy composition and water vapor content on the oxidation/ volatilization induced loss of wall thickness was experimentally evaluated. Enhanced external oxidation and volatilization of Cr 2 O 3 and Ti-doped Cr 2 O 3 scales was observed in air + 60% H 2 O compared to air + 10% H 2 O. No significant impact of the higher water vapor content was observed on Al 2 O 3 scales formed on Fe-based alumina forming alloys. Lifetime modeling was employed to predict the combined effects of water vapor content, gas flow rates, temperature and alloy composition on the oxidation-induced lifetime of the investigated materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Plate Impact and Penetration at the Ballistic Launch Tube: Experiments

This report details the data collected from plate impact experiments performed at the Ballistics Launch Tube (BLT) in May 2019. The experiments consisted of 62 shots of copper projectiles (cylindrical and ogive) impacting 1/4", 1/2", and 3/4" aluminum plates at varying velocities. An additional 14 shots of copper cylinders on a 1" steel plate were fired at varying velocities as a Taylor anvil test. We recorded videos of the impact events and resulting fragmentation using a multi-view system of three high speed cameras. The purpose of these tests was to collect high quality data from the multi-view camera system and create digital representations of the deformed target, projectile and fragments. This data is intended to be used as validation data set for high fidelity simulation codes. This report covers the experimental setup, diagnostics, and collected data. Data processing and analysis are underway and will be discussed in a separate report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Accelerating the spin-up of the coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle model in CLM4

The commonly adopted biogeochemistry spin-up process in an Earth system model (ESM) is to run the model for hundreds to thousands of years subject to periodic atmospheric forcing to reach dynamic steady state of the carbon–nitrogen (CN) models. A variety of approaches have been proposed to reduce the computation time of the spin-up process. Significant improvement in computational efficiency has been made recently. However, a long simulation time is still required to reach the common convergence criteria of the coupled carbon–nitrogen model. A gradient projection method was proposed and used to further reduce the computation time after examining the trend of the dominant carbon pools. The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) with a carbon and nitrogen component was used in this study. From point-scale simulations, we found that the method can reduce the computation time by 20–69% compared to one of the fastest approaches in the literature. We also found that the cyclic stability of total carbon for some cases differs from that of the periodic atmospheric forcing, and some cases even showed instability. Close examination showed that one case has a carbon periodicity much longer than that of the atmospheric forcing due to the annual fire disturbance that is longer than half a year. The rest was caused by the instability of water table calculation in the hydrology model of CLM4. The instability issue is resolved after we replaced the hydrology scheme in CLM4 with a flow model for variably saturated porous media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests

Strategies to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions through forestry activities have been proposed, but ecosystem process-based integration of climate change, enhanced CO 2 , disturbance from fire, and management actions at regional scales are extremely limited. In this work, we examine the relative merits of afforestation, reforestation, management changes, and harvest residue bioenergy use in the Pacific Northwest. This region represents some of the highest carbon density forests in the world, which can store carbon in trees for 800 y or more. Oregon’s net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was equivalent to 72% of total emissions in 2011–2015. By 2100, simulations show increased net carbon uptake with little change in wildfires. Reforestation, afforestation, lengthened harvest cycles on private lands, and restricting harvest on public lands increase NECB 56% by 2100, with the latter two actions contributing the most. Resultant cobenefits included water availability and biodiversity, primarily from increased forest area, age, and species diversity. Converting 127,000 ha of irrigated grass crops to native forests could decrease irrigation demand by 233 billion m 3 ∙y –1 . Utilizing harvest residues for bioenergy production instead of leaving them in forests to decompose increased emissions in the short-term (50 y), reducing mitigation effectiveness. Increasing forest carbon on public lands reduced emissions compared with storage in wood products because the residence time is more than twice that of wood products. Thus, temperate forests with high carbon densities and lower vulnerability to mortality have substantial potential for reducing forest sector emissions. Our analysis framework provides a template for assessments in other temperate regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid Membrane/Absorption Process for Post-combustion CO2 Capture

This report summarizes scientific/technical progress made for bench-scale membrane contactor technology for post-combustion CO2 capture from DOE Contract No. DE-FE-0004787. Budget Period 1 (BP1) membrane absorber, Budget Period 2 (BP2) membrane desorber and Budget Period 3 (BP3) integrated system and field testing studies have been completed successfully and met or exceeded the technical targets (≥ 90% CO2 removal and CO2 purity of 97% in one membrane stage). Significant breakthroughs are summarized below: BP1 research: The feasibility of utilizing the poly (ether ether ketone), PEEK, based hollow fiber contractor (HFC) in combination with chemical solvents to separate and capture at least 90% of the CO2 from simulated flue gases has been successfully established. Excellent progress has been made as we have achieved the BP1 goal: ≥ 1,000 membrane intrinsic CO2 permeance, ≥ 90% CO2 removal in one stage, ≤ 2 psi gas side pressure drop, and ≥ 1 (sec)-1 mass transfer coefficient. Initial test results also show that the CO2 capture performance, using activated Methyl Diethanol Amine (aMDEA) solvent, was not affected by flue gas contaminants O2 (~3%), NO2 (66 ppmv), and SO2 (145 ppmv). BP2 research: The feasibility of utilizing the PEEK HFC for CO2-loaded solvent regeneration has been successfully established High CO2 stripping flux, one order of magnitude higher than CO2 absorption flux, have been achieved. Refined economic evaluation based on BP1 membrane absorber and BP2 membrane desorber laboratory test data indicate that the CO2 capture costs are 36% lower than DOE’s benchmark amine absorption technology. BP3 research: A bench-scale system utilizing a membrane absorber and desorber was integrated into a continuous CO2 capture process using contactors containing 10 to 20 ft2 of membrane area. The integrated process operation was stable through a 100-hour laboratory test, utilizing a simulated flue gas stream. Greater than 90% CO2 capture combined with 97% CO2 product purity was achieved throughout the test. Membrane contactor modules have been scaled from bench scale 2-inch diameter by 12-inch long (20 ft2 membrane surface area) modules to 4-inch diameter by 60-inch long pilot scale modules (165 ft2 membrane surface area). Pilot scale modules were tested in an integrated absorption/regeneration system for CO2 capture field tests at a coal-fired power plant (Midwest Generation’s Will County Station located in Romeoville, IL). Absorption and regeneration contactors were constructed utilizing high performance super-hydrophobic, nano-porous PEEK membranes with CO2 gas permeance of 2,000 GPU and a 1,000 GPU, respectively. Field tests using aMDEA solvent achieved greater than 90% CO2 removal in a single stage. The absorption mass transfer coefficient was 1.2 (sec)-1, exceeding the initial target of 1.0 (sec)-1. This mass transfer coefficient is over one order of magnitude greater than that of conventional gas/liquid contacting equipment. The economic evaluation based on field tests data indicates that the CO2 capture cost associated with membrane contactor technology is $54.69 (Yr 2011$)/tonne of CO2 captured when using aMDEA as a solvent. It is projected that the DOE’s 2025 cost goal of $40 (Yr 2011$)/tonne of CO2 captured can be met by decreasing membrane module cost and by utilizing advanced CO2 capture solvents. In the second stage of the field test, an advanced solvent, Hitachi’s H3-1 was utilized. The use of H3-1 solvent increased mass transfer coefficient by 17% as compared to aMDEA solvent. The high mass transfer coefficient of H3-1 solvent combined with much more favorable solvent regeneration requirements, indicate that the projected savings achievable with membrane contactor process can be further improved. H3-1 solvent will be used in the next pilot-scale development phase. The integrated absorption/regeneration process design and high performance membrane contactors developed in the current bench-scale program will be used as the base technology for future pilot-scale development.

Coal-Environmental Processes↗

EQSIM: Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

The great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 is one of the most recognized, and sobering, demonstrations of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, these events still present a significant danger to life and economic security. To mitigate the potential devastation of future earthquakes and better prepare for these inevitable events, researchers are turning to high-performance computers to simulate the underlying geophysical processes and accurately quantify associated risks to critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Preliminary Logistics Modeling of the Integrated Wash Aid Treatment Emergency Reuse System - 19495

We employed Analysis of Mobility Platform (AMP) and GoldSim software to model the logistics of deploying materials to implement the Integrated Wash Aid Treatment Emergency Reuse System (IWATERS) in a hypothetical cesium-contamination scenario covering a four-block strip of downtown Chicago, IL. In this deployment of IWATERS, buildings were washed down via fire-hosing and contaminated wash solution was collected in the city's waste/stormwater collection system. The contaminated wash water was treated to remove Cs via ad hoc sand/clay filtration beds, and the treated wash solution was recycled during continuing decontamination operations. A detailed task timeline for the IWATERS deployment and information (or assumptions) on the availability and location of required resources for operations provided input parameters, as well as a framework, to enable the AMP and GoldSim simulations. From the decision to deploy IWATERS to the end of operations, including the completion of processing all contaminated wash water, took 49 days with decontamination teams active for 35 days and treatment bed teams active for 37 days. The modeling results showed the availability of vermiculite clay (based on data supplied by its commercial vendors/distributors) as the limiting factor for deploying treatment bed teams and, consequentially, the recycling rate of wash water and the timeline for decontamination operations. These simulations represent the first attempt at understanding the material and personnel requirements for large-scale IWATERS operation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Contaminant Entrainment in a Liquid Fuel Fire with Multi-Component Evaporation Droplet Model

A number of fire scenarios can result in the release of hazardous chemical or radiological contaminants as sub-micron solid particulates, posing a significant danger of inhalation. These particulates may be entrained in the air around the fire through a variety of mechanisms including liquid droplet formation above the boiling surface of the contaminated fuel. The formation of both film drops from the rupture of a liquid film as a boiling bubble bursts and jet drops from the collapse of the cavity of a ruptured bubble may be involved. A 2015 study by Brown and Louie focused on such a fire scenario to investigate the physics of contaminant release. This paper extends that study by supplementing the existing physics models with a multicomponent evaporation mechanism, where liquid droplets formed near the boiling fuel surface experience evaporation of their various components at different rates based on distinct material properties (density, specific heat, heat of vaporization, etc.). As in the Brown and Louie study, the Sierra low-Mach module Fuego is used as the Lagrangian-Eulerian code for simulation of this scenario. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Holographic Imaging of Evolving Laser-Plasma Structures

In the 1870s, English photographer Eadweard Muybridge captured motion pictures within one cycle of a horse’s gallop, which settled a hotly debated question of his time by showing that the horse became temporarily airborne. In the 1940s, Manhattan project photographer Berlin Brixner captured a nuclear blast at a million frames per second, and resolved a dispute about the explosion’s shape and speed. In this project, we developed methods to capture detailed motion pictures of evolving, light-velocity objects created by a laser pulse propagating through matter. These objects include electron density waves used to accelerate charged particles, laser-induced refractive index changes used for micromachining, and ionization tracks used for atmospheric chemical analysis, guide star creation and ranging. Our “movies”, like Muybridge’s and Brixner’s, are obtained in one shot, since the laser-created objects of interest are insufficiently repeatable for accurate stroboscopic imaging. Our high-speed photographs have begun to resolve controversies about how laser-created objects form and evolve, questions that previously could be addressed only by intensive computer simulations based on estimated initial conditions. Resolving such questions helps develop better tabletop particle accelerators, atmospheric ranging devices and many other applications of laser-matter interactions. Our photographic methods all begin by splitting one or more “probe” pulses from the laser pulse that creates the light-speed object. A probe illuminates the object and obtains information about its structure without altering it. We developed three single-shot visualization methods that differ in how the probes interact with the object of interest or are recorded. (1) Frequency-Domain Holography (FDH). In FDH, there are 2 probes, like “object” and “reference” beams in conventional holography. Our “object” probe surrounds the light-speed object, like a fleas swarming around a sprinting animal. The object modifies the probe, imprinting information about its structure. Meanwhile, our “reference” probe co-propagates ahead of the object, free of its influence. After the interaction, object and reference combine to record a hologram. For technical reasons, our recording device is a spectrometer (a frequency-measuring device), hence the name “frequency-domain” holography. We read the hologram electronically to obtain a “snapshot” of the object’s average structure as it transits the medium. Our published work shows numerous snapshots of electron density waves (“laser wakes”) in ionized gas (“plasma”), analogous to a water wake behind a boat. Such waves are the basis of tabletop particle accelerators, in which charged particles surf on the light-speed wave, gaining energy. Comparing our snapshots to computer simulations deepens understanding of laser wakes. FDH takes snapshots of objects that are quasi-static --- i.e. like Muybridge’s horse standing still on a treadmill. If the object changes shape, FDH images blur, as when a subject moves while a camera shutter is open. Many laser-generated objects of interest do evolve as they propagate. To overcome this limit of FDH, we developed .... (2) Frequency-Domain Tomography (FDT). In FDT, 5 to 10 probe pulses are fired simultaneously across the object’s path at different angles, like a crossfire of bullets. The object imprints a “streaked” record of its evolution on each probe, which we record as in FDH, then recover a multi-frame “movie” of the object’s evolving structure using algorithms of computerized tomography. When propagation distance exceeds a few millimeters, reconstructed FDT images distort. This is because the lenses that image probes to detector have limited depth of field, like cameras that cannot focus simultaneously on both nearby and distant objects. But some laser-generated objects of interest propagate over meters. For these applications we developed … (3) Multi-Object-Plane Phase-Contrast Imaging (MOP-PCI). In MOP-PCI, we image FDT-like probes to the detector from multiple “object planes” --- like recording an event simultaneously with several cameras, some focused on nearby, others on distant, objects. To increase sensitivity, we exploit a phase-contrast imaging technique developed by Dutch Nobel laureate Fritz Zernike in the 1930s. Using MOP-PCI we recorded single-shot movies of laser pulse tracks through more than 10 cm of air. We plan to record images of meter-long tracks of electron bunches propagating through plasma in an experiment at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC). This will help SLAC scientists understand, optimize and scale small plasma-based particle accelerators that have applications in medicine, industry, materials science and high-energy physics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Using AI to build a hydrobiogeochemical soil model

Soil water content is a function of inputs from precipitation and outputs via evaporation, transpiration, lateral flow, and vertical percolation, and is sensitive to biogeochemical processes. As such, soils serve as an ideal integrator of atmospheric, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes affecting the water cycle. In addition, soil water retention capacity, infiltration rates, and hydraulic conductivity can buffer or exacerbate the effects of extreme precipitation events (e.g., flooding, runoff, subsurface transport, erosion, greenhouse gas emissions) and mitigate the impact of droughts and heat waves on land systems (e.g., fire, crop failure). However, integrating water cycle measurements spanning different land atmosphere compartments across scales is a fundamental barrier for numerical model predictability. A significant challenge is that each domain (soil, hydrology, biology, and atmosphere) typically collects different sets of data at different temporal and spatial frequencies/scales, and even different dimensionalities (2D vs 3D). To implement soil as an integrator of the water cycle in land models, we suggest that novel machine learning (ML) tools can be developed to effectively simulate complex landscapes across various domains and scales, extended to regions with sparse or no data. The ultimate goals are to improve predictive understanding of land-atmosphere interactions and to extend the predictability of current Earth System Models (ESMs) through better integration of hydrological and biogeochemical data. We envision a framework in which: (1) ML-aided data reconstructions enable the merger of data sources into a unified geospatial product; (2) automated detection techniques are used to improve the knowledge of complex soil processes and interactions; and (3) this knowledge is leveraged and incorporated into models through AI-based emulators to distinctly connect the land and atmospheric compartments of the water cycle in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate impact of a regional nuclear weapons exchange: An improved assessment based on detailed source calculations

In this paper, we present a multi-scale study examining the impact of a regional exchange of nuclear weapons on global climate. Our models investigate multiple phases of the effects of nuclear weapons usage, including growth and rise of the nuclear fireball, ignition and spread of the induced firestorm, and comprehensive Earth system modeling of the oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. This study follows from the scenario originally envisioned by Robock et al. (2007a), based on the analysis of Toon et al. (2007), which assumes a regional exchange between India and Pakistan of fifty 15-kiloton weapons detonated by each side. We expand this scenario by modeling the processes that lead to production of black carbon, in order to refine the black carbon forcing estimates of these previous studies. When the Earth system model is initiated with 5 × 10 9 kg of black carbon in the upper troposphere (approximately 9 to 13 km), the impact on climate variables such as global temperature and precipitation in our simulations is similar to that predicted by previously published work. However, while our thorough simulations of the firestorm produce about 3.7 × 10 9 kg of black carbon, we find that the vast majority of the black carbon never reaches an altitude above weather systems (approximately 12 km). Therefore, our Earth system model simulations conducted with model-informed atmospheric distributions of black carbon produce significantly lower global climatic impacts than assessed in prior studies, as the carbon at lower altitudes is more quickly removed from the atmosphere. In addition, our model ensembles indicate that statistically significant effects on global surface temperatures are limited to the first 5 years and are much smaller in magnitude than those shown in earlier works. None of the simulations produced a nuclear winter effect. We find that the effects on global surface temperatures are not uniform and are concentrated primarily around the highest arctic latitudes, dramatically reducing the global impact on human health and agriculture compared with that reported by earlier studies. Lastly, our analysis demonstrates that the probability of significant global cooling from a limited exchange scenario as envisioned in the previous studies is highly unlikely, a conclusion supported by examination of natural analogs, such as large forest fires and volcanic eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cryogenic Carbon Capture Development (Final Report)

This project extends and leverages the work completed under funding from ARPA-E and other sources by exploring aspects of the Cryogenic Carbon Capture™ (CCC) process and issues discovered during those projects, but that were not within the scope or budget of previous projects or that became apparent during field tests. Our successful completion of the tasks outlined in this project has increased the reliability, efficiency, and scalability of the CCC process and we are better prepared for pilot-scale testing. The first phase of this project improved key areas of the process through iterative design and experiment, culminating with recommendations for improvements to the existing skid-scale system developed under non-federal funding. The second phase of this project implemented the improved unit operations into the Cryogenic Carbon Capture External Cooling Loop (CCC ECL™) skid and field tests the improved system at a coal-fired power plant. The specific areas of work in this project are: Budget Period 1: 1) Selection of the most energy-efficient drying system for ambient-pressure flue gas. Sustainable Energy Solutions, LLC (SES) has successfully demonstrated a dryer that removes bulk water using a low-temperature brine to remove about 99% of the water followed by a mol sieve 3A desiccant dryer to remove the remaining 1% water; 2) Selection and demonstration of efficient solution to fouling due to dissolved CO 2 . SES has tested several commercial heat exchangers that purport to be able to handle fouling issues similar to those experienced in the contact liquid chiller. Replicated tests using the CCC ECL™ skid and dimpled brazed plate heat exchangers demonstrate that quick throttling of refrigerant combined with a burst of clean gas mitigate the fouling caused by CO 2 solubility in contact liquid with only minor increases in parasitic load. SES models indicate that parasitic load would increase by approximately 0.0125 GJ/tonne, an order of magnitude less than what was determined to be the maximum allowable additional parasitic load caused by this system; 3) Selection and demonstration of efficient and scalable solid–liquid separation system. The screw press technology met or exceeded the 70% solids loading benchmark during several test runs exceeding 24 hours on the CCC ECL™ skid. The average solids loading during the entire 50-hour run was 67%. The energy demand for this system is less than 0.1 GJ e /tonne of CO 2 processed; 4) Optimize design and demonstration of patented desublimating heat exchangers. We designed and built a hybrid spray tower that was tested over many hundreds of hours and a 50-hour continuous test run was completed capturing over 0.5 tonne CO 2 /day at >90% capture; (5) Plan for safe dilution of oxygen-depleted, cleaned flue-gas stream. The AERSCREEN simulator developed by the EPA modeled the dispersion of oxygen-depleted flue gas from the CCC process at a commercial plant. The results indicate that this plan effectively mitigates the flue gas hazards; (6) Simulation of and experimental work related to multi-pollutant capture. SES programmed an upgrade to its solid/vapor/liquid equilibrium (SVLE) algorithm. This enables simultaneous modeling of multiple pollutants (i.e., CO 2 , SO x , NO x , Hg, HCl). Budget Period 2; (7) Modify the CCC ECL™ skid for field testing and complete shakedown testing. The plans for modifying the CCC ECL™ skid were finalized and put into place. Shakedown testing of the updated CCC ECL™ skid occurred at SES using closed-loop mode (i.e., using a synthetic flue gas consisting of only N 2 and CO 2 ) and at the Hunter Power Plant using flue gas from the coal-fired boiler. Shakedown testing took longer than expected due to delays in receiving equipment and unexpected equipment performance in the field; (8) Operate the CCC ECL™ skid in the field. Longer testing of the CCC ECL™ skid occurred at the Hunter Power Plant. Multiple tests exceeding 35 hours were completed, with a total of over 600 hours of CO 2 capture completed using flue gas at the Hunter Power Plant with an average CO 2 capture rate of over 91% during those hours. Extensive notes and documentation were acquired informing improved methods for controls, startup, operation, and shut down; (9) Determine figures of merit and quantify process improvement. SES defined figures of merit for unit operation performance and overall CCC ECL™ process performance. All figures of merit were achieved or surpassed, except for 500 continuous hours of demonstration at the Hunter Power Plant; (10) Complete an Environmental Health and Safety Risk assessment by a third party. Tri-State completed an Environmental Health and Safety Risk assessment; (11) Update techno-economic analysis with third-party validation. The techno-economic analysis has been completed. It confirms the potential large reduction in energy and cost of the CCC process compared with leading alternatives and that the estimates and estimation techniques are reliable.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

RISK-INFORMED EXTERNAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS BY EEVE TOOLKIT

Introducing risk-informed safety analyses for external events can bring sensible benefits to the nuclear power industry easing the regulatory burden introduced in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Margin Characterization project (LWRS-RISMC), research activities were conducted at INL for developing and applying a toolkit for performing risk-informed external hazards analysis. The “EEVE” (External EVEnts) toolkit, a chain of INL and state-of-the-art codes, was set-up and applied for simulating earthquake-induced transients with internal flooding in a PWR. This was done using methodology set-up for evaluating new data and determining critical areas that would benefit most from advanced analysis methods. The methodology is agnostic and it can be applied to other external hazards than just seismic and flooding (e.g., high winds, intense precipitation, etc.). The first step was the deterministic calculations for evaluating the propagation of a set of earthquakes and for determining the effects on a fire suppression system in an auxiliary building. These deterministic calculations were performed using the LS-DYNA and the OPENSEE structural mechanics codes. Probability failures and event trees of a generic 3-loops Westinghouse PWR were derived from a generic SAPHIRE model. Seismically induced Loss of Offsite Power, Station Blackout, and fire suppression piping failure events were considered. SAPHIRE code allowed a pre-screening of all possible branches of the event tree and a selection of those with the largest Core Damage Frequency increase for further analysis using dynamic PRA methods. INL's EMRALD code performed dynamic PRA calculations of the identified sequences, integrating risk analysis with on-line deterministic safety analysis results (seismically-induced internal flooding calculations by NEUTRINO code and system analysis by RELAP5-3D code). RELAP5-3D Best-Estimate calculations coupled with RAVEN statistical code were used for deriving limit surfaces as function of relevant transient parameters. This data was used by EMRALD for determining the final core status (core damage/core safe). Finally, the coupling of seismic, flooding, system thermal-hydraulic, uncertainty quantification and probabilistic risk analysis for an advanced risk-informed external hazards analysis was demonstrated. Results showed the sensible decrease in the level of conservatism achieved using the developed risk-informed methodology, which allowed also improving the evaluation of the failure modes and failure probabilities of different components.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Grid Data Crossing Platform (GriD-Xing)

This project is to develop a data management and analytics platform called Grid Data Crossing (GriD-Xing) that integrates data processing, storage, analysis, and visualization functionalities for users at industry (e.g., EMS and DMS) and universities. It intends to increase the applicability of large set of multi-source data (e.g., SCADA, PMU, μPMU, AMI, inverter, load/DER forecasting, and cyber data) and eventually improve the resilience, reliability, and security of critical energy infrastructure. GriD-Xing also intends to be a research platform to identify the usefulness of large multi-source data via case studies of interest to industry (e.g., 2011 southwest cold weather and 2016 Blue Cut fire events). In the first year, the team focused on the development and demonstration of large multi-source data (e.g., PMU, μPMU, SCADA, AMI, and cyber data) processing, storage, and analysis. Specifically, the team designed GriD-Xing framework in functional and structural aspects, developed GriD-Xing algorithms for large multi-source grid data processing, storage, and analysis, and finally demonstrated GriD-Xing prototype algorithms performance through a series of tests and case studies using real-world and simulation data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Antecedent Hydrometeorological Conditions of Wildfire Occurrence in the Western U.S. in a Changing Climate

Abstract Wildfires have significant hydrological and ecological impacts in the western U.S. Using a high‐resolution regional climate simulation and wildfire observations for 1984–2018, this study investigates the antecedent hydrometeorological conditions (AHCs) of wildfires in the western U.S. During the warm season (April‐September), the wildfire AHCs feature diverse surface pressure (PS), soil moisture, and longwave/shortwave radiation (LW/SW) conditions. K‐means clustering classifies wildfires into four types with distinct AHCs: low‐PS‐type and high‐PS‐type with lower and higher PS anomalies, respectively, LW‐type featuring intense LW but weak SW anomalies, and wet‐soil‐type with wet soil anomalies. Each fire cluster represents 22%–27% of all the wildfires, featuring different combinations of climate and vegetation conditions and their diverse relations to regional hydrometeorological conditions, with wet‐soil‐type fires often exhibiting opposite correlations with AHCs compared to those of the other three types. In five major Köppen climate zones over the western U.S., clustering‐based predictions improve the seasonal wildfire prediction accuracy ( R 2 ) by 10% compared to prediction without classification. Such improvement comes from separating the opposite relationships between wet‐soil‐type fires and their seasonal AHCs from the other three types, along with separating LW‐type fires, which include most of the lightning‐ignited fires that occur more randomly. Increases in wildfire occurrence during 1984–2018 are dominated by the increases in the LW‐type fires, while the wet‐soil‐type fires have decreased, consistent with the long‐term drying in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗